M&A – 17/3/2020

Realita: banyak yang cash & non-cash

Di indo, M&a orangnya gitu2 aja jd ya ketemunya gitu2 aja

Greedy dari old owner

Psikologi Buyer: komditi barang Cuma 1, maka mau dibeli banyak perusahaan, supplyya 1 demand
banyak -> harga naik2

The Winner’s Curse: Dari harga 500 (intrinsic) -> karena bnyk supply -> jadi 550 ->Yg beli aja udah rugi
Kalo di game theory udh rugi

Share repurchases: Bisa naikin harga saham > naikin cf = belanja

belanja: cari sendiri, atau diteasing IB, atau cari sendiri tp minta tolong IB
Seller nunjuk IB / pihak ke 3 independen,

AMBIL M&A CLASS BARENG EY! Cara nego, bikin info memo, dll
Udh ngerjain Gojek valuation, antam freeport,

US Steel acq marathon Oil

US Steel: kebanyakn duit, mau diapain? -> untuk divesisfikasi
Diversifi M&A: Leibh mahal dbanding Diversifikasi Invetments (saham)

Target company, kalo gamau ada taktisnya

29.1 – The Basic Forms of Acq

- Acquisition Asset : membeli asset, hanya beli asset saja (tidak bertanggung jawab atas utang)
Kalo missal beli ui ada 10m asset, kita beli, jadi di
- Acquisition Stock: membeli perusahaan (Saham), logicnya kita harus nanggung hutangnya (kombinasi
hutang + equity)
Kapan beli Asset dan atau stock?
kalo beli asset: kita yakin nilainya lebih baik di kelolaan kita
Krn kalo kt beli tp worse than prev owner ngaps?
kalo beli saham: selain kita dpt saham, kt bayar utang juga. -> kita hrs cek debt capacity
kalo kita konsol Der 1 x der 4 = der jd turun -> bs utang lg
capex lbh rendah, liability

Debt: pricing (bunga), tenor (klo cek apakah bs berapa lama) , dan Size

- Merger: (A+B = A)
one firm is acquired by another
acquiring firm retains name (tetep sama) terus perusahaan lain ilang
- Consolidation: (A+B = C)
similar to merger, expet an entirely firm is created from the combination of existing firm
contoh: mandiri, ada bank2 kecil

Kelebihan: Legally simple

disad: hrs disapprove 22 nya

2. Acquisitions:
as
tender offee: public offer to buy shares (kalo msl tdk signifikan)

Horizntal: both firm ( beli industri di smping)

vertical: backward (uangnaya kecil): beli retailer dulu indocargo, terus beli saham Indofood, terus beli
tepungbogasari – forward (kebalikan): beli bogasari, Indofood, indomarco, indomaret)

Conglomerate (kyk vacom clenarer): firlm unrelated, semua disiikat grup Salim grup (dr obat nyamuk,
jadi bca, di coal (Ga nyambung)
konsentrik (bank Mandiri), : da punya mansek, mandiri tunas, mandiri health (asuransi)

bisnis kekinian kaitan dgn platform: org buat M&A skrg buat ekositem (bukan theory kyk gn)

Kenapa gojek beli midtrans? Krn drpd buat baru, mending beli aja

Why google acq android: bcs ECOSYSTEM

3.Takeovers
Proxy contest: setuju/ga setuju

29.2 – Synergy (Harus sinergim namun kadang2 irasional)

membangun ekosistem
Main reason synergy fail: bcs :
1. Intellectual capital often W.O the door when acq are not handled carefully (orang yg jago bgt)
2. Scale: average cost
barang udh jadi (5000 – 8k) keluar jd 16k = lebih powerful di market power= price-margcost
bank suka marke share
:Nilai before lebih rendah drpd value afte M&A
Synergy = Vab – (Va + Vb)
Real praktek : si B lebih dpt benefit
Synergi : sigma delltaCFt/(1+R)^t

29.3 – Sources of Synergy

ada 4 sumber sinergi:
1. Revene Enhancement - P/L (Naikin revenue) – existing business bs naikin business nya ga?
2. Cost Reduction
- Replacement of ineffective managers (efektif better than efficient dlm managers)
- economy of scale/scope
3. Tax Gains: Debt capacity
- Net operating losses (gaboleh di us)
- Unused debt capacity (merger dgn persuahaan yg kecil yg punya der kecil, max der4, kalo ga ttp diitung
der4)
- Use of surplus funds (share repo +
klo bnayak uang, yg mahal terlihat murah, yg murah terlihat sgt murah
4. Reduced Capital Requirements:
beli prs biar ga perlu bngun dari awal -> kalo bikin lebih mahal

Esensinya: MENAMBAH CASH!

29.4 Two Financial Side Effects of Acquisition

- Earnings Growth:
- Diverisfication:
lebih murah drpd divserisfikasi M&A

29.5 Cost to Stocksh from reduction in risk

- The Base Case
- Both Firms have debt

“pad asaat persuahaan krisis, punya hutang, yg punya perusahaan BUKAN SHAREHOLDERS, tapi adalah
BANKS atau BONDHOLDERS”
secara legal SH msh memliki, namun yg mengendalikan adalah BANK/BONHDHOLDERS (dialihkan)
bisa jd pemilik lg? bs , jika melunasi hutangnya
jd apa yg dimliiki SH? Bs memiliki kembali, dengan syarat bisa dinego

Var 1:Varians underlyg asset : NAIK harganya : call option akan NAIK
call bs buat hedging :

Var 2: jika leverage: having 2 risks, must higher risk than 1 risk -> manfaat TAX SHIELD TERKOREKSI
, manfaat menurun, call option menurun

By having 2 bs & pl = recduced risk

tp no free lunch
yg dibayar: call option turun

- How can sh reduce rtheir loss

Retire debt premerger (lebih mahal)
or increase postmerger debt usage (lebih murah)

Liquiditas dlm melakukan refinancing:

29.6 The NPV of Merger

Cash Acquisition
NPV = (Vb + dV) – cash cost = Vb* - cash cost

Vab = Va + (Vb* - cash cost)

Vab = Va + NPV

Cara melihat npv : sinergi, sm melihat int value

29.9 Have merger added value?
SH target co excess return in a merger ( YG DIAKUISISI)