The box diagram in Fig. 1 reviews the basic evaluation probabilistic pattern is a classical model for electric systems
methodology. reliability studies [11], [12]. Therefore this paper assumes
constants states transition rates, leading to the use of Markov
Processes.
The same assumption is applied to the distribution
probability associated with the random variables of the
weather conditions durations [12].
The reliability functions of the exponential distribution are
given by the following equations:
f (t ) = λ e − λ t , t > 0 (1)
R (t ) = e − λ t , t > 0 (2)
Q (t ) = Qc (t ) = 1 − e − λ t , t > 0 (3)
where f(t), R(t) and Q(t) are the probability density function,
Fig. 1. Basic proceeding methodology. reliability function and unreliability functions respectively, λ
A. Forced Outages Database is the failure rate and t is time.
Transmission lines forced outage statistics were taken from Substituting “(1)” or “(2)” in “(4),” parameters calculations
the Operations Engineering Department of EDELCA. A were done using the following equations:
special database based on [9] was created in Microsoft ∞ ∞ ∞
Excel™ spreadsheets. 1 ∞ 1
MTTF = ∫ tf (t )dt = ∫ R(t )dt = ∫ e−λt dt = − ⎡⎣e−λt ⎤⎦ = (4)
Scheduled outages as maintenance outages were not 0 0 0
λ 0 λ
included in this evaluation [8]. The stored failures were
Using the same analysis of “(4),” the following equation is
classified in Terminal related forced outages and Line related
obtained:
forced outages [10].
Table I provides the representative layout of the reliability ∞
database designed for the transmission lines parameters 1 ∞ 1
r = MTTR = ∫ e− μt dt = − ⎡e− μt ⎦⎤ =
⎣
(5)
calculations. The same layout was used to the 400 kV and 230 0
μ 0 μ
kV transmission lines.
where µ is the repair rate.
TABLE I C. Transmission Lines Descriptions
765 KV TRANSMISSION LINE FORCED OUTAGES DATABASE LAYOUT
Below is shown a description of each power transmission
line under evaluation.
1) La Horqueta – La Arenosa at 765 kV
This transmission line departs from La Horqueta substation
located at Aragua State, until La Arenosa substation located at
Carabobo State. Table II shows the transmission line
characteristics.
TABLE II
B. Probability Distribution Consideration TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS
2) La Arenosa – Yaracuy at 765 kV located in the same state. Routing these transmission lines
This transmission line departs from La Arenosa substation might be identified two sections: the normal terrain section
located at Carabobo State, until Yaracuy substation located at and the Maracaibo Lake crossing section. Tables V and VI
Yaracuy State. Table III shows the transmission line show the particular characteristics of each section.
characteristics.
TABLE V
TABLE III MARACAIBO LAKE CROSSING SECTION TRANSMISSION LINES
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS CHARACTERISTICS
n
λ = λL × l + ∑ ( λT )i (6)
i =1
where λL and λT are the line related failure rate and the
terminal related failure rate respectively, l is the transmission
line length and n is the number of line terminals.
Table IV shows the transmission line characteristics.
5) Cuatricentenario – Cuestecita at 230 kV
This power line is a bi-national interconnection between
TABLE IV
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS Colombia and Venezuela. It departs from Cuatricentenario
substation located at Zulia State, Venezuela, until Cuestecita
substation located at La Guajira State, Colombia.
Table VII shows the transmission line characteristics.
TABLE VII
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS
It is important to note that EDELCA maintains the firsts substations of EDELCA can be found in [13].
82.4 km of this power transmission line, being the next 41.5
E. Inclusion of Adverse Weather Conditions
km of line responsibility of the Colombian electric power
utility ISA. Transmission lines are exposed to a large variety of
weather conditions because of their extension through the
D. Transmission System Modeling whole geography [12]. The world experience shows that
The Venezuelan transmission system is formed by transmission lines failure rates are function of weather
thousands of kilometers of power lines at different voltage conditions in which they operate. That is why weather
levels from 115 kV, 230 kV, 400 kV and 765 kV. These conditions have been considered since the 60’s, and
assets are spread nationwide and belong to different electric techniques have been developed for allowing the inclusion of
power utilities as EDELCA, CADAFE, ENELVEN and EDC. such effects on reliability studies [14]-[16].
This reliability study only consider the assets of EDELCA The most commons subdivisions for weather conditions are
located in the Venezuelan western, and each power normal weather conditions, adverse weather conditions and
transmission line is assumed as a major component that can total disaster conditions [17]. Total disaster conditions refer to
fail with line related events and terminal related events. hurricanes and tornadoes presence on the region evaluated,
The one-line diagram of the transmission system modeled and they are not considered in this study because Venezuelan
is shown in Fig. 2. western is a non-active region for such climatic phenomena.
Adverse weather conditions are those that can cause a
significant impact on the failure rate value, such as lightning
storms. In this study, adverse weather conditions were only
represented by lightning storms because they are predominant
in Venezuelan western tropical characteristics. Average failure
rate λ can be expressed in terms of some parameters as:
N S (7)
λ = λn + λs
N +S N +S
where λn and λs denote the failure rate under normal weather
conditions and the failure rate under adverse weather
Fig. 2. Western transmission system model of EDELCA.
conditions respectively, N and S are the average durations of
normal weather conditions and average duration of adverse
It is important to remark that each power line is identified
weather conditions respectively.
with a specific number inside a circle. Hence, all this
However, λn and λs parameters can be evaluated from λ in
components will be recognized with its respective number.
terms of the definition of one failure proportion number. As
The active power flow direction is from La Horqueta and La
indicates the following equations:
Arenosa substations to westerns load points as can be seen in
Fig. 2. Power sources represent the power lines San Gerónimo
N +S
– La Arenosa, San Gerónimo – La Horqueta and Sur- λn = λ (1 − F ) (8)
Horqueta at 765 kV, which are assumed to be 100 % reliable N
for practical evaluation reasons.
The average demand values of 2005 available data for each N+S (9)
load point were obtained from the Operations Engineering
λs = λ F
S
Department of EDELCA for the months shown in Table VIII.
where F is the proportion of failures occurred in adverse
TABLE VIII weather conditions which in this paper are assumed to be
LOAD POINTS AVERAGE DEMANDS FOR THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM caused by lightning storms as stated before. For each power
line F was obtained from the database designed. Values for N
and S have been found from meteorological data available
[18]-[20].
F. Markov Modeling
Markov approach basically consists in the construction of
the state space diagram which is essential to build the
stochastic transition matrix [8], [11]. Once the state space
diagram and the stochastic transition matrix have been
obtained, steady state probabilities for each state are estimated
Substations configurations were not considered in this solving the Kolmogorov Differential Equation and applying
study; however a detailed assessment of the three western limits theory:
5
Fk = ∑ Fj Pkj ( 12 )
j
TABLE IX
TRANSMISSION LINES RELIABILITY DATA RESULTS
TABLE XV
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR CUESTECITA LOAD POINT
IV. SUMMARY
The total annual average power demand trade off in 2005
between the western transmission system of EDELCA and
other transmission and distribution utilities, assuming an ideal
condition of 100 % load points availability is 10257960
MWhr/yr. The summation of the total computed EENS index
in each load point analyzed was 7902.53 MWhr/yr.
With a simple calculation that establishes the relationship
Tables XII, XIII, XIV and XV show the load points
between the ideal trade off and the estimated trade off, is
reliability indices results using the state enumeration method
obvious that the total overall performance index of the
for the transmission system modeled in Fig. 2.
western transmission system of EDELCA is 99.923 %.
TABLE XII
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR YARACUY LOAD POINT V. RECOMMENDATIONS
Failure parameters obtained in this paper for the six
transmission lines studied, realistically represent the empirical
knowledge of the failure nature for this components.
Reliability indices considering the adverse weather
conditions model for the western transmission lines
TABLE XIII demonstrate a better accuracy for all results; this is because of
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR EL TABLAZO LOAD POINT the substantial lightning activity in this region. Reliability
evaluations without including this kind of modeling can result
in quite optimistic indices.
It is recommended to incorporate in the databases of
EDELCA several weather conditions parameters related to
each transmission line region. The Venezuelan adverse
7
weather modeling for assessing accurately the transmission [12] R. Billinton and R. Allan, “Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems,”
2nd ed., New York: Plenum Press, 1996.
lines reliability can be enhanced with a future inclusion of the [13] J. A. Thomas and L. E. Aparicio, “Stochastic Reliability Study of the
adverse dryness period, which dramatically increases the Western Transmission Substations Maintained by EDELCA,” in Proc.
system failure rates because of the large number of fire caused 2008 Latin America IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and
Distribution Conf. Bogotá, Colombia.
outages.
[14] R. Billinton and W. Li, “A Novel Method for Incorporating Weather
From the design point of view, EDELCA has foreseen the Effects in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation,” in IEEE
construction of transmission infrastructure needed as the Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, 1991, pp. 1154-1160.
transmission line La Arenosa – Yaracuy #2 at 765 kV and the [15] R. Billinton, C. Wu and G. Singh, “Extreme Adverse Weather Modeling
in Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Evaluation.” 14th
installation of submarine cables to replace the overhead PSCC, Sevilla, 2002.
Maracaibo Lake crossing section of transmission lines El [16] R. Billinton and J. Acharya, “Consideration of Multi-state Weather
Tablazo – Cuatricentenario #1 and #2 both at 400 kV, to Models in Reliability Evaluation of Transmission and Distribution
Systems.” Power System Research Group. University of Saskatchewan,
increase western power system reliability. Canada 2005.
Finally, all this methodology establishes a set of future [17] IEEE Terms for Reporting and Analyzing Outages of Electrical
potential developments that will be able to aid decision Transmission and Distribution Facilities and Interruptions to Customer
Service, IEEE Standard 346-1973.
management sustained on probabilistic approaches to improve [18] J. Ramírez and M. Martínez, “Influencia de las Sobretensiones por
planning, operation and maintenance stages of the Venezuelan Descargas Atmosféricas y Comportamiento de los Sistemas de Puesta a
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University, Caracas, Feb. 2004.
[19] Metodología para el Diseño Eléctrico de las Líneas de Transmisión de
VI. ACKNOWLEDGMENT EDELCA, Electric Power Systems Division. Transmission Lines
The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Engineering Department. EDELCA 1997.
[20] Estadísticas Climatológicas de Venezuela Período 1961 – 1990.
Ph.D. Roy Billinton for his encouragement submitting Meteorological Services. Venezuelan Air Force. Special Publication No.
reference [9] before its publication date, M.Sc. José R. Espina 5. Venezuela 1993.
for his academic guidance through the realizations of this [21] F. Aboytes and F. Sánchez, “Dynamic Stability Analysis of the
Interconnected Colombia-Venezuela Power System.” IEEE Transactions
study and M.Sc. Néstor A. Taborda, General Manager of the on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 1, February 2000.
Transmission Maintenance Division of EDELCA, for
searching the data needed for this study and his great interest VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
on the subject.
Luis E. Aparicio Vargas (S’06, M’08) was born in
VII. REFERENCES Cabimas, Venezuela, on March 1st, 1984. He received
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