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Stochastic Reliability Study of the Western 765,


400 and 230 kV Transmission Lines Maintained
by EDELCA
L. E. Aparicio, Member, IEEE, and J. A. Thomas, Member, IEEE

EDELCA, the major power generation and transmission utility


Abstract-- A reliability study of the six western transmission in the country has started to consider reliability evaluations
lines maintained by EDELCA, the major power generation and inside the transmission maintenance management.
transmission utility in Venezuela was completed. In the last years, RCM has been the most common chosen
The main purpose of this paper was to estimate a set of strategy for a large amount of electrical power utilities in the
reliability indices for each power transmission line, using
probabilistic techniques such as the Markov approach and the
world. However, this strategy is still being a heuristic
state enumeration method for the load points system assessment. approach and needs the experience from all the workers of the
The study was performed by means of a comprehensible utility [1], [2].
transmission system modeling only taking into account the assets Today, different power systems maintenance strategies
of EDELCA from the National power system and using a reliable have been developed under a probabilistic approach to
database specially designed. Furthermore, the adverse weather achieve more flexible, cost-reduced and optimized
conditions were considered in terms of the regional lightning
maintenance programs [3], [4]. Methods such as ASSP [5] and
characteristics. The Expected Load Curtailment and the
Expected Energy Not Supplied indices were used to evaluate the RCAM [6] are used for assessing the impact of maintenance
reliability of four load points, considering until second order strategy on power systems reliability, that by using
events. mathematical tools give a better understanding of the real
Finally, the overall performance of western transmission stochastic behavior of the systems [7]. These methods always
system of EDELCA is 99,923 %. contemplate reliability evaluation of power system as a first
step, being this the main reason for the realization of this
Index Terms-- Adverse Weather Conditions, Markov study.
Processes, Power Transmission Line, Power Transmission
Maintenance, Reliability.
This paper reviews the methodology followed to assess
reliability indices of the EDELCA’s western transmission
I. NOMENCLATURE system conformed by the power lines La Horqueta – La
Arenosa and La Arenosa – Yaracuy both at 765 kV, Yaracuy
A Availability.
– El Tablazo #3, El Tablazo – Cuatricentenario #1, El Tablazo
ASSP Asset Sustainment Strategy Platform.
– Cuatricentenario #2 all at 400 kV and the interconnection
EENS Expected Energy Not Supplied.
Cuatricentenario – Cuestecita (Colombia) at 230 kV.
ELC Expected Load Curtailment.
Therefore, all this research work provides a first glance of
MTBF Mean Time Between Failures.
the application of reliability evaluation theory linked with
MTTF Mean Time to Failure
transmission maintenance to improve in the near future the
MTTR Mean Time to Repair.
Venezuelan power system reliability.
RCAM Reliability Centered Asset Maintenance.
RCM Reliability Centered Maintenance. III. TRANSMISSION SYSTEM RELIABILITY EVALUATION
U Unavailability.
Several steps were taken to achieve the assessment of
II. INTRODUCTION transmission system reliability indices. First of all,
transmission line characteristics were reviewed and a special
N OWADAYS in Venezuela, the perception of power
transmission system maintenance has been changing.
database was created to calculate the transmission lines
reliability parameters. Once each component was identified,
the transmission system formed by the six power lines was
L. E. Aparicio is with the Transmission Maintenance Division of CVG conveniently modeled to assess EDELCA’s reliability
Electrificación del Caroní C. A., EDELCA, Maracaibo, Zulia State, VE (e- performance, discarding other utilities assets inside the
mail: leaparicio@ieee.org). Venezuelan power grid. Markov model techniques were used
J. A. Thomas is with the Transmission Maintenance Division of CVG
EDELCA, Macagua, Puerto Ordaz, Bolívar State, VE (e-mail:
for each component in combination of the state enumeration
jorgethomasm@ieee.org). technique for the whole system calculation [8].

978-1-4244-2218-0/08/$25.00 ©2008 IEEE.


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The box diagram in Fig. 1 reviews the basic evaluation probabilistic pattern is a classical model for electric systems
methodology. reliability studies [11], [12]. Therefore this paper assumes
constants states transition rates, leading to the use of Markov
Processes.
The same assumption is applied to the distribution
probability associated with the random variables of the
weather conditions durations [12].
The reliability functions of the exponential distribution are
given by the following equations:

f (t ) = λ e − λ t , t > 0 (1)

R (t ) = e − λ t , t > 0 (2)

Q (t ) = Qc (t ) = 1 − e − λ t , t > 0 (3)

where f(t), R(t) and Q(t) are the probability density function,
Fig. 1. Basic proceeding methodology. reliability function and unreliability functions respectively, λ
A. Forced Outages Database is the failure rate and t is time.
Transmission lines forced outage statistics were taken from Substituting “(1)” or “(2)” in “(4),” parameters calculations
the Operations Engineering Department of EDELCA. A were done using the following equations:
special database based on [9] was created in Microsoft ∞ ∞ ∞
Excel™ spreadsheets. 1 ∞ 1
MTTF = ∫ tf (t )dt = ∫ R(t )dt = ∫ e−λt dt = − ⎡⎣e−λt ⎤⎦ = (4)
Scheduled outages as maintenance outages were not 0 0 0
λ 0 λ
included in this evaluation [8]. The stored failures were
Using the same analysis of “(4),” the following equation is
classified in Terminal related forced outages and Line related
obtained:
forced outages [10].
Table I provides the representative layout of the reliability ∞
database designed for the transmission lines parameters 1 ∞ 1
r = MTTR = ∫ e− μt dt = − ⎡e− μt ⎦⎤ =

(5)
calculations. The same layout was used to the 400 kV and 230 0
μ 0 μ
kV transmission lines.
where µ is the repair rate.
TABLE I C. Transmission Lines Descriptions
765 KV TRANSMISSION LINE FORCED OUTAGES DATABASE LAYOUT
Below is shown a description of each power transmission
line under evaluation.
1) La Horqueta – La Arenosa at 765 kV
This transmission line departs from La Horqueta substation
located at Aragua State, until La Arenosa substation located at
Carabobo State. Table II shows the transmission line
characteristics.

TABLE II
B. Probability Distribution Consideration TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS

A total of 15 years of failure data from the six transmission


lines was collected; this is since 1990 until 2005 for the 765
kV power system, taking into account that the western 400 kV
power system was energized in 1998.
Transmission lines as a major component of the power
system perform as a repairable system and is accepted the use
of an exponential probability distribution to model its
probabilistic nature. The exponential probability distribution
correspond to a mathematical model for a large amount of
systems were is expected to have more events below the mean
value of the random variables than above it; that is why this
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2) La Arenosa – Yaracuy at 765 kV located in the same state. Routing these transmission lines
This transmission line departs from La Arenosa substation might be identified two sections: the normal terrain section
located at Carabobo State, until Yaracuy substation located at and the Maracaibo Lake crossing section. Tables V and VI
Yaracuy State. Table III shows the transmission line show the particular characteristics of each section.
characteristics.
TABLE V
TABLE III MARACAIBO LAKE CROSSING SECTION TRANSMISSION LINES
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS CHARACTERISTICS

3) Yaracuy – El Tablazo #3 at 400 kV


This transmission line is one of the longest 400 kV lines in TABLE VI
Venezuela. It departs from Yaracuy substation located at TERRAIN SECTION TRANSMISSION LINES CHARACTERISTICS
Yaracuy State, until El Tablazo substation located at Zulia
State.
It is expected to show the relationship between the
transmission line length and a high failure number. The
associated expression to this statement is given by the
following equation:

n
λ = λL × l + ∑ ( λT )i (6)
i =1

where λL and λT are the line related failure rate and the
terminal related failure rate respectively, l is the transmission
line length and n is the number of line terminals.
Table IV shows the transmission line characteristics.
5) Cuatricentenario – Cuestecita at 230 kV
This power line is a bi-national interconnection between
TABLE IV
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS Colombia and Venezuela. It departs from Cuatricentenario
substation located at Zulia State, Venezuela, until Cuestecita
substation located at La Guajira State, Colombia.
Table VII shows the transmission line characteristics.

TABLE VII
TRANSMISSION LINE CHARACTERISTICS

4) El Tablazo – Cuatricentenario #1 and El Tablazo –


Cuatricentenario #2 at 400 kV
These transmission lines depart from El Tablazo substation
located at Zulia State, until Cuatricentenario substation
4

It is important to note that EDELCA maintains the firsts substations of EDELCA can be found in [13].
82.4 km of this power transmission line, being the next 41.5
E. Inclusion of Adverse Weather Conditions
km of line responsibility of the Colombian electric power
utility ISA. Transmission lines are exposed to a large variety of
weather conditions because of their extension through the
D. Transmission System Modeling whole geography [12]. The world experience shows that
The Venezuelan transmission system is formed by transmission lines failure rates are function of weather
thousands of kilometers of power lines at different voltage conditions in which they operate. That is why weather
levels from 115 kV, 230 kV, 400 kV and 765 kV. These conditions have been considered since the 60’s, and
assets are spread nationwide and belong to different electric techniques have been developed for allowing the inclusion of
power utilities as EDELCA, CADAFE, ENELVEN and EDC. such effects on reliability studies [14]-[16].
This reliability study only consider the assets of EDELCA The most commons subdivisions for weather conditions are
located in the Venezuelan western, and each power normal weather conditions, adverse weather conditions and
transmission line is assumed as a major component that can total disaster conditions [17]. Total disaster conditions refer to
fail with line related events and terminal related events. hurricanes and tornadoes presence on the region evaluated,
The one-line diagram of the transmission system modeled and they are not considered in this study because Venezuelan
is shown in Fig. 2. western is a non-active region for such climatic phenomena.
Adverse weather conditions are those that can cause a
significant impact on the failure rate value, such as lightning
storms. In this study, adverse weather conditions were only
represented by lightning storms because they are predominant
in Venezuelan western tropical characteristics. Average failure
rate λ can be expressed in terms of some parameters as:

N S (7)
λ = λn + λs
N +S N +S
where λn and λs denote the failure rate under normal weather
conditions and the failure rate under adverse weather
Fig. 2. Western transmission system model of EDELCA.
conditions respectively, N and S are the average durations of
normal weather conditions and average duration of adverse
It is important to remark that each power line is identified
weather conditions respectively.
with a specific number inside a circle. Hence, all this
However, λn and λs parameters can be evaluated from λ in
components will be recognized with its respective number.
terms of the definition of one failure proportion number. As
The active power flow direction is from La Horqueta and La
indicates the following equations:
Arenosa substations to westerns load points as can be seen in
Fig. 2. Power sources represent the power lines San Gerónimo
N +S
– La Arenosa, San Gerónimo – La Horqueta and Sur- λn = λ (1 − F ) (8)
Horqueta at 765 kV, which are assumed to be 100 % reliable N
for practical evaluation reasons.
The average demand values of 2005 available data for each N+S (9)
load point were obtained from the Operations Engineering
λs = λ F
S
Department of EDELCA for the months shown in Table VIII.
where F is the proportion of failures occurred in adverse
TABLE VIII weather conditions which in this paper are assumed to be
LOAD POINTS AVERAGE DEMANDS FOR THE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM caused by lightning storms as stated before. For each power
line F was obtained from the database designed. Values for N
and S have been found from meteorological data available
[18]-[20].
F. Markov Modeling
Markov approach basically consists in the construction of
the state space diagram which is essential to build the
stochastic transition matrix [8], [11]. Once the state space
diagram and the stochastic transition matrix have been
obtained, steady state probabilities for each state are estimated
Substations configurations were not considered in this solving the Kolmogorov Differential Equation and applying
study; however a detailed assessment of the three western limits theory:
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transmission line #2 is out of service and transmission line #1


dP (t ) (10 ) is in service, the probability that transmission line #1 is
= M.P (t )
dt unavailable and transmission line #1 is available, and the
probability that both transmission lines are unavailable
respectively.
P = limP ( t ) ( 11 )
t →∞ For a single power transmission line and for two-parallel
configuration of power transmission lines, in both cases, the
where M is the stochastic transition matrix and P is the steady
probability for each state was calculated.
state probabilities vector.
Markov approach was applied incorporating adverse G. State Enumeration Method
weather conditions states for each reliability block, noting that The state enumeration method is often used in composite
for this study each block can be a single power transmission generation and transmission systems studies [12]. Although, it
line or two-parallel configuration of power transmission lines. is used for transmission systems models considering
1) Single Line Markov Model generation systems 100 % available.
The state space diagram for a single power transmission This technique was used to calculate the ELC and the
line fluctuating between normal weather conditions and EENS indices, as well as the failure frequency and the failure
adverse weather conditions is shown in Fig. 3; also, the probability for each load point only taking into account
transition rates associated can be seen, which are obtained second order events. Also, this method shows the same
from the previous analysis of the database. parameters for all possible states for each load point.
Failure frequency associated with the load point k is
obtained using the equation:

Fk = ∑ Fj Pkj ( 12 )
j

where j is a forced outage network condition.


Fj is the frequency of occurrence of outage j.
Pkj is the probability of existence of outage j at bus k.
ELC and EENS indices associated with the load point k can
be found using the followings equations respectively:
Fig. 3. State space diagram for a single transmission line.
ELCk = ∑ Lkj Fj [MW] ( 13 )
For example, state probability P3 in the Fig. 3 denotes the j
probability that one transmission line is unavailable in adverse
weather conditions.
2) Two-Parallel Lines Markov Model EENSk = ∑ Lkj Pj × 8760 [MWh] ( 14 )
j
In the case of two-parallel transmission lines fluctuating
between normal weather conditions and adverse weather where Lkj is the load curtailment at bus k by contingency j.
conditions, the state space diagram associated has eight states Pj is the probability of existence of outage j.
as shown in Fig. 4. Also can be seen the transition rates
H. Reliability Indices Results
associated, which are obtained the same manner as for the
single component case, from the previous analysis. Tables IX and X show the reliability parameters calculated
for the six power transmission lines of EDELCA, including
the transition rates for the adverse weather modeling.

TABLE IX
TRANSMISSION LINES RELIABILITY DATA RESULTS

Fig. 4. State space diagram for two-parallel configuration transmission lines.

State probabilities P0, P1, P2 and P3 denote the probability


that two transmission lines are available, the probability that
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It is important to remark the similar reliability parameters TABLE XIV


RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR CUATRICENTENARIO LOAD POINT
results obtained for the transmission lines El Tablazo –
Cuatricentenario #1 and #2 both at 400 kV. This fact is
because both overhead transmission lines are designed under
the same criteria and follow the same route.
Also, it can be appreciated that the failure rate for the
Yaracuy - El Tablazo #3 transmission line at 400 kV is the
highest, expected value for being the longest power line,
discarding the dynamic stability problem presented in the
interconnection Colombia – Venezuela [21].
TABLE X
ADVERSE WEATHER MODELING DATA RESULTS

TABLE XV
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR CUESTECITA LOAD POINT

Table XI shows the transmission lines state probabilities


showed in Fig. 3 and Fig. 4. Unavailability can be observed
too for each power line.
TABLE XI
TRANSMISSION LINES STATE PROBABILITIES

IV. SUMMARY
The total annual average power demand trade off in 2005
between the western transmission system of EDELCA and
other transmission and distribution utilities, assuming an ideal
condition of 100 % load points availability is 10257960
MWhr/yr. The summation of the total computed EENS index
in each load point analyzed was 7902.53 MWhr/yr.
With a simple calculation that establishes the relationship
Tables XII, XIII, XIV and XV show the load points
between the ideal trade off and the estimated trade off, is
reliability indices results using the state enumeration method
obvious that the total overall performance index of the
for the transmission system modeled in Fig. 2.
western transmission system of EDELCA is 99.923 %.
TABLE XII
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR YARACUY LOAD POINT V. RECOMMENDATIONS
Failure parameters obtained in this paper for the six
transmission lines studied, realistically represent the empirical
knowledge of the failure nature for this components.
Reliability indices considering the adverse weather
conditions model for the western transmission lines
TABLE XIII demonstrate a better accuracy for all results; this is because of
RELIABILITY INDICES RESULTS FOR EL TABLAZO LOAD POINT the substantial lightning activity in this region. Reliability
evaluations without including this kind of modeling can result
in quite optimistic indices.
It is recommended to incorporate in the databases of
EDELCA several weather conditions parameters related to
each transmission line region. The Venezuelan adverse
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weather modeling for assessing accurately the transmission [12] R. Billinton and R. Allan, “Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems,”
2nd ed., New York: Plenum Press, 1996.
lines reliability can be enhanced with a future inclusion of the [13] J. A. Thomas and L. E. Aparicio, “Stochastic Reliability Study of the
adverse dryness period, which dramatically increases the Western Transmission Substations Maintained by EDELCA,” in Proc.
system failure rates because of the large number of fire caused 2008 Latin America IEEE Power Engineering Society Transmission and
Distribution Conf. Bogotá, Colombia.
outages.
[14] R. Billinton and W. Li, “A Novel Method for Incorporating Weather
From the design point of view, EDELCA has foreseen the Effects in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation,” in IEEE
construction of transmission infrastructure needed as the Transactions on Power Systems, Vol. 6, 1991, pp. 1154-1160.
transmission line La Arenosa – Yaracuy #2 at 765 kV and the [15] R. Billinton, C. Wu and G. Singh, “Extreme Adverse Weather Modeling
in Transmission and Distribution System Reliability Evaluation.” 14th
installation of submarine cables to replace the overhead PSCC, Sevilla, 2002.
Maracaibo Lake crossing section of transmission lines El [16] R. Billinton and J. Acharya, “Consideration of Multi-state Weather
Tablazo – Cuatricentenario #1 and #2 both at 400 kV, to Models in Reliability Evaluation of Transmission and Distribution
Systems.” Power System Research Group. University of Saskatchewan,
increase western power system reliability. Canada 2005.
Finally, all this methodology establishes a set of future [17] IEEE Terms for Reporting and Analyzing Outages of Electrical
potential developments that will be able to aid decision Transmission and Distribution Facilities and Interruptions to Customer
Service, IEEE Standard 346-1973.
management sustained on probabilistic approaches to improve [18] J. Ramírez and M. Martínez, “Influencia de las Sobretensiones por
planning, operation and maintenance stages of the Venezuelan Descargas Atmosféricas y Comportamiento de los Sistemas de Puesta a
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University, Caracas, Feb. 2004.
[19] Metodología para el Diseño Eléctrico de las Líneas de Transmisión de
VI. ACKNOWLEDGMENT EDELCA, Electric Power Systems Division. Transmission Lines
The authors gratefully acknowledge the contributions of Engineering Department. EDELCA 1997.
[20] Estadísticas Climatológicas de Venezuela Período 1961 – 1990.
Ph.D. Roy Billinton for his encouragement submitting Meteorological Services. Venezuelan Air Force. Special Publication No.
reference [9] before its publication date, M.Sc. José R. Espina 5. Venezuela 1993.
for his academic guidance through the realizations of this [21] F. Aboytes and F. Sánchez, “Dynamic Stability Analysis of the
Interconnected Colombia-Venezuela Power System.” IEEE Transactions
study and M.Sc. Néstor A. Taborda, General Manager of the on Power Systems, Vol. 15, No. 1, February 2000.
Transmission Maintenance Division of EDELCA, for
searching the data needed for this study and his great interest VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
on the subject.
Luis E. Aparicio Vargas (S’06, M’08) was born in
VII. REFERENCES Cabimas, Venezuela, on March 1st, 1984. He received
[1] A. Smith, “RCM: Gateway to World Class Maintenance.” Elsevier with honors his Dipl. degree in Electrical Engineering
Butterworth-Heinemann. USA, 2004. at Universidad del Zulia (LUZ), Maracaibo.
[2] M. E. Beehler, “Reliability Centered Maintenance for Transmission His employment experience includes transmission
Systems,” in IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery, Vol. 12, No. 2, substations equipment tests, risk assessment of power
April 1997. systems, commercial and industrial electrical
[3] J. Endrenyi and the IEEE/PES Task Force on Impact of Maintenance installations.
Strategy on Reliability of the Reliability, Risk and Probability
Applications Subcommittee, “Impact of Maintenance Strategy on
Reliability.” July, 1999.
[4] J. Endrenyi (Chair) and IEEE Task Force, “The Present Status of Jorge A. Thomas Meléndez (S’06, M’07) was born
Maintenance Strategies and the Impact of Maintenance on Reliability,” in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on June 16th, 1982. He
IEEE Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 16, No. 4, pp. 638-646, November received his Dipl. degree in Electrical Engineering at
2001. Universidad del Zulia (LUZ), Maracaibo.
[5] J. Endrenyi, G. Anders and A. M. Da Silva, “Probabilistic Evaluation of His employment experience includes transmission
the Effect of Maintenance on Reliability – An Application,” in IEEE system maintenance, maintenance engineering and risk
Trans. Power Systems, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 576-583, May 1998. assessment of power systems. Recently he participated
[6] L. Bertling, R. N. Allan and R. Erikkson, “A Reliability-Centred Asset as a presenter at the International Applied Reliability
Maintenance Method for Assessing the Impact of Maintenance in Power Symposium 2008 held in Frankfurt, Germany.
Distribution Systems,” submitted to IEEE Trans. Power Systems, 2004.
[7] J. Endrenyi, G. J. Anders, L. Bertling and B. Kalinowski, “Comparison
of Two Methods for Evaluating the Effects of Maintenance,” Submitted
to PMAPS September 2004.
[8] R. Billinton and K. E. Bollinger, “Transmission System Reliability
Evaluation Using Markov Processes,” in IEEE Trans. PAS-87, No.2,
Feb 1968, pp 538-547.
[9] R. Billinton, “Reliability Data Requirements, Practices,
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Meeting.
[10] D. Koval, “Frequency of Transmission Lines Outages in Canada.” IEEE
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[11] R. Billinton and R. Allan, “Reliability Evaluation of Engineering
Systems,” 2nd ed., New York: Plenum Press, 1992.

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