Data kedatangan dan keberangkatan penumpang pesawat terbang di bandara Adi Sutjipto Yogyakarta selama 36 Bu

Bulan Periode Departure

1/1/2016 1 21676
1/2/2016 2 17448
1/3/2016 3 20820
1/4/2016 4 21746
1/5/2016 5 23808
1/6/2016 6 23620
1/7/2016 7 26291
1/8/2016 8 26059
1/9/2016 9 21585
1/10/2016 10 23071
1/11/2016 11 24485
1/12/2016 12 22429
1/1/2017 13 24432
1/2/2017 14 19521
1/3/2017 15 24477
1/4/2017 16 23535
1/5/2017 17 24444
1/6/2017 18 23881
1/7/2017 19 28568
1/8/2017 20 30032
1/9/2017 21 16379
1/10/2017 22 28354
1/11/2017 23 26243
1/12/2017 24 26962
1/1/2018 25 22906
1/2/2018 26 18514
1/3/2018 27 26997
1/4/2018 28 22479
1/5/2018 29 23773
1/6/2018 30 25628
1/7/2018 31 29906
1/8/2018 32 30465
1/9/2018 33 26130
1/10/2018 34 32460
1/11/2018 35 28613
1/12/2018 36 31599
ng di bandara Adi Sutjipto Yogyakarta selama 36 Bulan.

Arrival
21350
17002
20172
22231
25183
24051
26929
27416
20690
24537
23505
23101
20865
20347
23941
24304
25183
24051
30097
28923
20690
27440
24943
28794
21306
20541
26991
22583
24181
27438
20535
30475
28930
31745
29614
35147
Aplikasi pemulusan eksponensial linear satu parameter dari Brown pada data kedatangan penumpang pesawat te
36 Bulan.

Periode Departure Pemulusan eksponensial tunggal

1 21676 21676
2 17448 20830.4
3 20820 20828.32
4 21746 21011.86
5 23808 21571.08
6 23620 21980.87
7 26291 22842.89
8 26059 23486.12
9 21585 23105.89
10 23071 23098.91
11 24485 23376.13
12 22429 23186.70
13 24432 23435.76
14 19521 22652.81
15 24477 23017.65
16 23535 23121.12
17 24444 23385.70
18 23881 23484.76
19 28568 24501.40
20 30032 25607.52
21 16379 23761.82
22 28354 24680.26
23 26243 24992.80
24 26962 25386.64
25 22906 24890.51
26 18514 23615.21
27 26997 24291.57
28 22479 23929.06
29 23773 23897.84
30 25628 24243.88
31 29906 25376.30
32 30465 26394.04
33 26130 26341.23
34 32460 27564.99
35 28613 27774.59
36 31599 28539.47
wn pada data kedatangan penumpang pesawat terbang di bandara Adi Sutjipto Yogyakarta selama
36 Bulan.

pemulusan eksponensial ganda Nilai A Nilai B Peramalan

21676.00
21506.88 20153.92 -169.12
21371.17 20285.47 -135.71 19984.80
21299.31 20724.41 -71.86 20149.76
21353.66 21788.51 54.36 20652.54
21479.10 22482.63 125.44 21842.86
21751.86 23933.93 272.76 22608.07
22098.71 24873.52 346.85 24206.69
22300.15 23911.64 201.44 25220.37
22459.90 23737.93 159.75 24113.07
22643.15 24109.12 183.25 23897.68
22751.86 23621.55 108.71 24292.36
22888.64 23982.89 136.78 23730.26
22841.47 22464.15 -47.17 24119.67
22876.71 23158.59 35.23 22416.98
22925.59 23316.65 48.88 23193.82
23017.61 23753.78 92.02 23365.53
23111.04 23858.47 93.43 23845.80
23389.11 25613.70 278.07 23951.90
23832.80 27382.25 443.68 25891.77
23818.60 23705.04 -14.20 27825.93
23990.93 25369.58 172.33 23690.84
24191.31 25794.30 200.37 25541.91
24430.37 26342.91 239.07 25994.68
24522.40 25258.63 92.03 26581.98
24340.96 22889.46 -181.44 25350.66
24331.08 24252.05 -9.88 22708.02
24250.68 23607.43 -80.41 24242.18
24180.11 23615.58 -70.57 23527.03
24192.86 24294.89 12.75 23545.01
24429.55 26323.05 236.69 24307.64
24822.45 27965.63 392.90 26559.74
25126.21 27556.26 303.76 28358.53
25613.96 29516.01 487.76 27860.01
26046.09 29503.09 432.13 30003.77
26544.76 30534.18 498.68 29935.22
31032.85
31531.53
32030.21
32528.88
33027.56
33526.24
 KED

Periode Galat Galat Kuadrat

1
2
3 835.20 697559.04
4 1596.24 2547982.14
5 3155.46 9956902.57
6 1777.14 3158212.36
7 3682.93 13563942.15
8 1852.31 3431067.81
9 -3635.37 13215913.62
10 -1042.07 1085915.64
11 587.32 344945.09
12 -1863.36 3472114.29
13 701.74 492435.38
14 -4598.67 21147757.52
15 2060.02 4243672.09
16 341.18 116401.21
17 1078.47 1163099.17
18 35.20 1239.07
19 4616.10 21308373.69
20 4140.23 17141510.82
21 -11446.93 131032306.88
22 4663.16 21745035.89
23 701.09 491526.72
24 967.32 935713.41
25 -3675.98 13512835.57
26 -6836.66 46739865.72
27 4288.98 18395333.32
28 -1763.18 3108786.59
29 245.97 60503.10
30 2082.99 4338847.87
31 5598.36 31341645.76
32 3905.26 15251086.14
33 -2228.53 4966340.57
34 4599.99 21159862.35
35 -1390.77 1934228.71
36 1663.78 2768179.71
M=1 Jumlah 16694.9176812628 434871141.963557
M=2
M=3 Nilai Tengah galat 491.026990625376
M=4 Nilai Tengah galat Absolute 2754.64542924717
M=5 MAPE 0.126364859719007
M=6 Deviasi Standar Galat 3595.76133791807
MSE 12790327.70
RMSE 3576.356764196
Statistik durbin Watson 2.35594554528956
Statistik U dati Theli 0.710335851845218
 KEDATANGAN

Galat Absolute (et-(et-1)) (et-(et-1))^2 Absolute Persentage (((Fi+1)-(Xi+1))/Xi)^2 ((Xi+1)-(Xi))^2

835.2 4.01 0.005388124370523 0.001978155933342

1596.24 761.04 579181.88 7.34 0.017566224534628 0.008991218556045
3155.456 1559.22 2431154.53 13.25 0.005660848637322 6.235479715863E-05
1777.136 -1378.32 1899766.02 7.52 0.01962328532646 0.012787568981352
3682.92576 1905.79 3632034.61 14.01 0.005052587102551 7.786849113961E-05
1852.314176 -1830.61 3351138.77 7.11 0.028365672563435 0.029476537536996
3635.3698048 -5487.68 30114675.47 -16.84 0.002040155398574 0.004739510752267
1042.07276032 2593.30 6725189.56 -4.52 0.000575373354555 0.003756349389671
587.32025856 1629.39 2654921.61 2.40 0.006901987847877 0.007050923519082
1863.361019699 -2450.68 6005838.73 -8.31 0.000824956808428 0.007975209066546
701.7374030029 2565.10 6579729.92 2.87 0.055495810578778 0.040403764290898
4598.669102588 -5300.41 28094309.12 -23.56 0.007083133755224 0.064455276013592
2060.017497938 6658.69 44338107.24 8.42 0.000210149861016 0.001481103573884
341.1762223563 -1718.84 2954415.33 1.45 0.001946579732127 0.001491761385447
1078.47075709 737.29 543603.23 4.41 2.172655636003E-06 0.00053048393891
35.20042903604 -1043.27 1088412.98 0.15 0.026109023557982 0.038519876834203
4616.09940192 4580.90 20984635.40 16.16 0.019005556318358 0.002626167842465
4140.230768489 -475.87 226450.96 13.79 0.488431450997396 0.206674868463871
11446.93438765 -15587.17 242959717.60 -69.89 0.027047769628304 0.53453516169456
4663.157287933 16110.09 259535053.80 16.45 0.000713707357694 0.00554303724291
701.0896687861 -3962.07 15697979.82 2.67 0.001287178108886 0.000750638473081
967.3228057808 266.23 70880.08 3.59 0.02575419497763 0.022630371528285
3675.980898774 -4643.30 21560269.29 -16.05 0.13635998400401 0.03676428719964
6836.656033738 -3160.68 9989867.31 -36.93 0.025239261807531 0.209941557705079
4288.978121235 11125.63 123779735.35 15.89 0.006152291936123 0.028006667802639
1763.175144432 -6052.15 36628559.15 -7.84 0.000107055656491 0.003313710607759
245.9737713182 2009.15 4036679.37 1.03 0.006606097696608 0.006088633700689
2082.990126546 1837.02 3374629.09 8.13 0.035043311550772 0.027864556162222
5598.36098883 3515.37 12357832.30 18.72 0.016432302040116 0.000349387173862
3905.263901138 -1693.10 2866577.75 12.82 0.007273738423854 0.020247706584377
2228.52879103 -6133.79 37623412.79 -8.53 0.020082408973099 0.058685201564376
4599.985037624 6828.51 46628601.11 14.17 0.002362550151715 0.014045827861885
1390.765513543 -5990.75 35889092.17 -4.86 0.002772347097866 0.010890625324579
1663.784754252 3054.55 9330277.34 5.27
93657.9445944 828.5848 1024532729.68 4.29640523044623 1.00351729281157 1.41273636999281
Aplikasi pemulusan eksponensial linear satu parameter dari Brown pada data keberangkatan penumpang pesa
Sutjipto Yogyakarta selama 36 Bulan.

Periode Arrival Pemulusan eksponensial tunggal

1 21350 21350.00
2 17002 20480.40
3 20172 20418.72
4 22231 20781.18
5 25183 21661.54
6 24051 22139.43
7 26929 23097.35
8 27416 23961.08
9 20690 23306.86
10 24537 23552.89
11 23505 23543.31
12 23101 23454.85
13 20865 22936.88
14 20347 22418.90
15 23941 22723.32
16 24304 23039.46
17 25183 23468.17
18 24051 23584.73
19 30097 24887.19
20 28923 25694.35
21 20690 24693.48
22 27440 25242.78
23 24943 25182.83
24 28794 25905.06
25 21306 24985.25
26 20541 24096.40
27 26991 24675.32
28 22583 24256.86
29 24181 24241.68
30 27438 24880.95
31 20535 24011.76
32 30475 25304.41
33 28930 26029.53
34 31745 27172.62
35 29614 27660.90
36 35147 29158.12
 r dari Brown pada data keberangkatan penumpang pesawat terbang di bandara Adi
jipto Yogyakarta selama 36 Bulan.

pemulusan eksponensial ganda Nilai A Nilai B Peramalan Periode

21350.00 1
21176.08 19784.72 -173.92 2
21024.61 19812.83 -151.47 19610.80 3
20975.92 20586.43 -48.69 19661.36 4
21113.05 22210.04 137.12 20537.74 5
21318.32 22960.54 205.28 22347.16 6
21674.13 24520.56 355.80 23165.82 7
22131.52 25790.64 457.39 24876.37 8
22366.59 24247.14 235.07 26248.03 9
22603.85 24501.93 237.26 24482.21 10
22791.74 24294.88 187.89 24739.19 11
22924.36 23985.34 132.62 24482.78 12
22926.87 22946.89 2.50 24117.96 13
22825.27 22012.53 -101.59 22949.40 14
22804.88 22641.76 -20.39 21910.94 15
22851.80 23227.12 46.92 22621.37 16
22975.07 23961.26 123.27 23274.03 17
23097.00 24072.46 121.93 24084.54 18
23455.04 26319.33 358.04 24194.39 19
23902.90 27485.80 447.86 26677.37 20
24061.02 25325.94 158.12 27933.66 21
24297.37 26188.20 236.35 25484.06 22
24474.46 25891.19 177.09 26424.55 23
24760.58 27049.54 286.12 26068.28 24
24805.52 25164.98 44.93 27335.66 25
24663.69 23529.11 -141.82 25209.92 26
24666.02 24684.62 2.33 23387.28 27
24584.19 23929.53 -81.83 24686.95 28
24515.69 23967.68 -68.50 23847.69 29
24588.74 25173.16 73.05 23899.18 30
24473.34 23550.17 -115.40 25246.21 31
24639.55 25969.26 166.21 23434.78 32
24917.55 27141.50 277.99 26135.47 33
25368.56 28976.68 451.01 27419.50 34
25827.03 29494.76 458.47 29427.69 35
26493.25 31822.99 666.22 29953.23 36
32489.20413422 M=1 Jumlah
33155.4215852067 M=2
33821.6390361935 M=3
34487.8564871802 M=4
 35154.073938167 M=5
35820.2913891537 M=6
 Galat Galat Kuadrat Galat Absolute (et-(et-1)) (et-(et-1))^2

561.20 314945.44 561.199999999997

2569.64 6603049.73 2569.63999999999 2008.44 4033831.23
4645.26 21578403.31 4645.25599999999 2075.62 4308181.78
1703.84 2903070.75 1703.84 -2941.42 8651928.09
3763.18 14161524.92 3763.18015999999 2059.34 4240881.89
2539.63 6449723.87 2539.63065599999 -1223.55 1497073.39
-5558.03 30891655.83 5558.02625280001 -8097.66 65572047.41
54.79 3002.42 54.7943756799978 5612.82 31503755.41
-1234.19 1523230.38 1234.19219712 -1288.99 1661486.38
-1381.78 1909304.68 1381.77591582721 -147.58 21780.95
-3252.96 10581738.74 3252.95845916673 -1871.18 3501324.11
-2602.40 6772469.88 2602.39694853735 650.56 423230.28
2030.06 4121136.69 2030.05829620694 4632.46 21459641.59
1682.63 2831234.70 1682.62732099501 -347.43 120708.28
1908.97 3644152.73 1908.96640401958 226.34 51229.38
-33.54 1124.61 33.5352390054868 -1942.50 3773312.63
5902.61 34840747.19 5902.6051190187 5936.14 35237762.35
2245.63 5042857.44 2245.63074339342 -3656.97 13373461.58
-7243.66 52470582.48 7243.65808674249 -9489.29 90046602.50
1955.94 3825714.53 1955.94338544023 9199.60 84632667.25
-1481.55 2194988.65 1481.54940778044 -3437.49 11816356.70
2725.72 7429534.15 2725.71718086954 4207.27 17701092.15
-6029.66 36356810.44 6029.66088962925 -8755.38 76656645.16
-4668.92 21798780.53 4668.9164191633 1360.74 1851625.51
3603.72 12986774.04 3603.71669870144 8272.63 68436458.70
-2103.95 4426592.03 2103.94677381319 -5707.66 32577422.32
333.31 111093.21 333.30647472998 2437.25 5940203.40
3538.82 12523220.77 3538.81629480841 3205.51 10275293.21
-4711.21 22195500.34 4711.21007213374 -8250.03 68062935.06
7040.22 49564718.15 7040.22145590864 11751.43 138096142.96
2794.53 7809391.08 2794.52877561942 -4245.69 18025906.34
4325.50 18709987.53 4325.50430920954 1530.98 2343886.08
186.31 34710.85 186.308478338837 -4139.20 17132942.13
5193.77 26975255.20 5193.77080744803 5007.46 25074678.98
21003.4362746685 433587027.260229 101607.089598107 4632.571 868102495.186

Nilai Tengah galat 617.748125725544

Nilai Tengah galat Absolute 2988.44381170903
MAPE 0.84858764189285
Deviasi Standar Galat 3570.12941734591
MSE 12752559.63
RMSE 3571.07261551776
Statistik durbin Watson 2.00214130176214
Statistik U dati Theli 0.7067799545438
Absolute Persentage (((Fi+1)-(Xi+1))/Xi)^2 ((Xi+1)-(Xi))^2

2.78 0.013360618729054 0.010418729779

11.56 0.034025488963078 0.017632533148
18.45 0.005018701234956 0.002020588713
7.08 0.019528530672004 0.014319086169
13.97 0.008580901935861 0.000327052497
9.26 0.072163934933097 0.060187394486
-26.86 4.9868814046372E-06 0.034571911396
0.22 0.002757052789679 0.001768953711
-5.25 0.003577780372424 0.000295421582
-5.98 0.024306378502093 0.00936875837
-15.59 0.016358606732093 0.000616343388
-12.79 0.007190058861283 0.031200056133
8.48 0.004793142708134 0.000229894551
6.92 0.005746211932168 0.001308043651
7.58 1.94418028646E-06 0.002020588713
-0.14 0.038462813025168 0.063193150697
19.61 0.006028232796613 0.001521562434
7.76 0.122573024930917 0.081026961954
-35.01 0.005080943270671 0.10643551462
7.13 0.003528051410521 0.008280734696
-5.94 0.008961022806921 0.023836893923
9.47 0.080090670689749 0.067628175471
-28.30 0.051664119682478 0.001289196224
-22.73 0.017826387139523 0.098599852236
13.35 0.008679730251629 0.02667136368
-9.32 0.000189993606362 0.0050071463
1.38 0.016634552926492 0.018142076881
12.90 0.052635108827125 0.06329520973
-22.94 0.053368526520668 0.234305970037
23.10 0.009330830593227 0.002570215504
9.66 0.018566191908504 0.009468036665
13.63 3.9579571989217E-05 0.004506259904
0.63 0.021836802150784 0.034908179167
14.78
28.8519798243568 0.732910921536953 1.03697185641