Statistical Modeling of Exhaust Emission from Mobile Sources using

P.E.T.C. and M.V.I.S. Data in the Philippines

Joselito R. Lacuarin
M.S. Civil Engineering major in Transportation Engineering
Civil Engineering Department, College of Engineering
University of the Philippines-Diliman

Dr. Ricardo G. Sigua

Adviser
Associate Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of the Philippines
Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines. e-mail: rsigua@up-ncts.org.ph

Abstract:
Known as the Republic Act 8749
(Philippine Clean Air Act), the law
mandates the Department of Trade and
Industry (DTI) and the Department of
Transportation and Communication
(DOTC) with the Land Transportation
Office (LTO) to implement a national
motor vehicle inspection and
maintenance program to make sure
vehicles comply with set emission
standards starting by 2003. The I/M
programs are implemented with joint
partnership of government and private
agencies setting up Private Emission
Testing Centers (PETC) to conduct the
emission tests.
To this effect, all in-use vehicles
are required to pass the emission test
given by any accredited and authorized
PETC and are given a Certificate of
Emission Compliance (CEC) and
Certificate of Conformity for newly
assembled local or imported vehicles.
This means that the renewal of annual
vehicle registration at the LTO will only
be possible upon presentation of such
certificate.
Despite the use of EURO I
stationary idle test procedure in testing
centers does not accurately identify the
gross polluting vehicles on the road, the
effectiveness of the PETC and MVIS in
reducing the vehicle emission remains
criticized. This study seeks to determine
the relationship between vehicle
characteristics (such as vehicle age,
manufacturer, engine displacement,
number of cylinders, and fuel type) and
exhaust emission using data collected in
IT-based Private Emission Testing
Centers and Land Transportation Office
Motor Vehicle Inspection System (LTO-
MVIS) all over the Philippines. It also
aims to determine the effectiveness of
PETC and MVIS in reducing vehicle
emissions. Carbon Monoxide;
Hydrocarbon, and Opacity/Particulate
Matter emissions were modeled based
on vehicle age, manufacturer, engine
displacement, number of cylinders, fuel
type.
 procedure.
I. INTRODUCTION
1. OBJECTIVES The units of measurement on tailpipe
emission are to be reported in this study
Develop statistical emission models of as exhaust concentration (e.g., percent
Hydrocarbon (HC), Carbon Monoxide and ppm) moreover since relationships
(CO), and Opacity (K) of in-use vehicles between exhaust concentration and fuel-
Specifically to: normalized emission factors such as
a. To determine the emission emission normalized to the amount of
rate such as HC, CO and fuel used (e.g., grams per liter) and
Opacity in each vehicle emissions normalized to the distance
conducted in selected traveled (e.g., grams per kilometer) are
PETC’s and MVIS station in approximately linear (singer 1998),
the Philippines.
b. To develop emission models 3. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE
of HC, CO, and K based on STUDY
vehicle type, vehicle
manufacturer, estimated age, This paper sets the groundwork for a
engine size, and fuel type. procedure that can be used to selectively
target those vehicles most likely to be
Evaluate the effectiveness of Private pollution violators.
Emission Testing Centers and Motor
Vehicle Inspection Station in reducing May be used as a basis for developing a
vehicle emissions. Specifically to: tool to predict on-road emissions based
a. To determine the percentage on vehicle parameters such as age and
passing and failing rate of make/model.
vehicles tested on PETC’s
and MVIS station. 4. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
b. To determine the average In-
use vehicle emissions by Private
Model and Region. Emission
Testing
Centers &
2. SCOPE AND LIMITATION MVIS Stations Vehicle Parameters
Cars
This study utilized the Land
Jeepney
Transportation Office Information s Vehicle Age
Technology based operation of the Buses Make/Manuf
Tricycle HC, CO, K acturer
Statistical models of each of the three s Engine
Size/displace
pollutants (HC, CO and K), depending on ment
vehicle type, and age are based on. two Inspection/
Emission Model Fuel
& Type
Maintenanc
stage idle-speed emission testing e (DOTC,
Evaluation of
effectiveness
procedure for data gathered in PETC in LTO &
contrast to the Acceleration, DENR)
Deceleration, Cruise, and Idle (ACDI)
mode since PETC's are only required to Secondary Data
conduct idle emission testing procedure
based on EURO 1 emission testing
 5. METHODOLOGY vehicle registration offices as a
Procedure in developing emission prerequisite to renewal of registration
models
a. Determine the modeling EMISSION CONTROL FOR IN-USE
approach to be taken VEHICLES
b. Determine the emission
influencing factors to be Emission Standards for In-use Vehicles
considered.
c. Identify the data sources. Emission test procedures are given in
Annex B and Annex C for registered or
II. REVIEW OF RELATED in-use motor vehicles equipped with
LITERATURE spark-ignition or compression engines,
respectively, should be strictly followed.
4.1 The Philippine Clean Air Act and the
Mobile Source Emission Standards For vehicles with spark ignition
engines except motorcycles, the
4.1.a National Motor Vehicle Inspection following emission standards shall apply:
and Maintenance Program
Emission Standards for Vehicles with
All private in-use motor vehicles with Spark-Ignition Engines (Gasoline) Except
updated/enhanced engine whose chassis Motorcycles
are pre-registered with Land Vehicle CO HC
Transportation Office (LTO) will only be Category (% by ppm as
allowed renewal of annual registration volume) hexane
when, upon inspection by the LTO or Registered 4.5
other authorized private motor vehicle prior to
inspection station (MVIS), such vehicles January 1,1997
meet the in-use emission standards set at idle
forth in section 1 Rule XXXII hereof. Registered on 3.5
The LTO or other authorized MVIS shall or after January
conduct the vehicle tests for emission. 1,1997 but
Public Utility Vehicles submitted before January
to DOTC/LTO for renewal of registration 1,2003 at Idle
shall only be allowed upon presentation Registered on 0.5
of a valid Vehicle Inspection Report or after January  -
issued on the basis of the inspection 1,2003 at Low 0.03)*
following the standard described hereto Idle At High
from the MVIS or its authorized testing Idle
centers. The Vehicle Inspection Report (rpm>2,500)
shall be valid for a maximum of six (6) *or in accordance with manufacturer’s
months. specification
Emission tests may be conducted
within sixty (60) days prior to the
renewal of registration. The results of
such test shall be presented within sixty
(60) days from the date of the test and
may be presented to the LTO motor
 Emission Standards for Vehicle with b – For compression-ignition (diesel-
Compression-Ignition Engines fueled) motor vehicles; figure in brackets
(light absorption coefficient, m-1)* relate to turbo charged vehicles
Naturally Turbo 1,000 m
Aspirated charged increase * if the in-use emission standard of the
in country of origin is more stringent than
elevation these maximum limits, it will supersede
Registered 2.5 3.5 4.5 them.
for the Emission Standards for Rebuilt Vehicles
first time and Imported Second Hand Vehicles
prior to
December No rebuilt or second hand-CBU imported
31,2002 into the country or pre-registered
Registered 1.2 2.2 3.2 retrofitted with second hand engines shall
for the for be allowed registration or renewal of
the first registration without valid Certificate of
time on or Compliance to Emission Standard
after (CCES) issued by the DOTC.
January
1,2003 4.1.b. Vehicle Standards in Asia

For motorcycles registered for the first 4.2 Private Emission Testing Centers and
time on or before December 31,2002, CO the Motor Vehicle Inspection System.
emission at idle shall not exceed 6.0 % 4.2.1 What is a PETC?
for motorcycles registered for the first Private Emission Testing
time after December 31, 2002 CO Center (PETC) is a private facility
emissions at idle shall not exceed 4.5%. engaged in the determination of the
Emission Standards for Rebuilt Vehicles level of the opacity and/or the
and Imported Second Hand Vehicles* analysis of the content of the gaseous
COa HCa Smokeb emission of a motor vehicle.
[tubocharg
ed]
Registered 3.5% 500p 2.5 [3.5] How many PETCs are needed
for the first pm nationwide?
time prior to
December A total of ninety-eight (98) service areas
31, 2001 At are needed nationwide where the LTO
Idle district offices are located. Fifty-nine (59)
Registered 0.5% 100p 2.5[3.5] mobile PETCs are also required.
for the first pm
time on or Based on the number of vehicles
after January registered with the LTO, a total of 323
1,2003 At lanes are needed nation-wide. One (1)
Idle PETC may have anywhere from one (1)
a – For spark-ignition (gasoline-fueled) to seven (7) lanes.
motor vehicles
4.2.2 (Article IV) General and minimum
requirements. b. Personnel performing specific tasks
4.2.2.1 Personnel shall be qualified on the basis of
a. A technician shall be certified as a appropriate education, training,
vehicle Emission Control experience and/or demonstrated
Technician by TESDA skill, as required.
In-Use Gasoline Vehicle Emission Standards c. The center shall maintain current
CO% HCppm Test job descriptions for managerial,
Bangladesh 24 g/km 2 g/km Dynamic test
technical and key support personnel
Cambodia 4.5 10,000
Hong Kong, China involved in testing.
India 3 Idle d. The center’s management shall
Indonesia 4.5 1200 Idle authorized specific personnel to
Malaysia 3.5-4.5 6-800 Idle perform particular sampling, tests,
Nepal 3 1000 to issue test reports, to give
Pakistan opinions and interpretations and to
Philippines prior to
Jan. '97 4.5 800 Idle
operate the emission testing
Philippines Jan '97 equipment.
– Dec '02 3.5 600 Idle
Low idle 4.2.2.2 Accommodation and Environment
At high idle Conditions
CO 0.3
(lambda = 1+/-
a. The work area shall be within a
0.03) permanent site and shall have a
maneuvering area/site of at least 6m
or in acc. w/
manufacturer x 6m long per proposed number of
Philippines Jan '03 0.5 100 specs. vehicle to be inspected at any given
PRC light duty 4.5 900 Idle time where the driver can repair for
PRC heavy duty 4.5 1200 Idle off-highway emission testing.
Singapore 3.6-6 Idle b. The facility for testing and/or
Sri Lanka produced
before 1998 4.5 1200 Low idling
calibration, including but not
Sri Lanka produced limited to energy sources, lighting
after 1998 3 1200 Low idling and environment conditions shall be
Taipei,China such to facilitate correct
Thailand prior to performance of the tests and/or
Nov. '93 4.5 600 Idle test
calibrations.
Thailand after '93 1.5 200 Idle test
Value is for 4 c. The area in which the test will be
central cities, undertaken shall not invalidate the
Rest of results or adversely affect the
Vietnam Proposed 1500 Country CO required accuracy of measurement.
End 2002 6 (4S) 6.5% d. Measures shall be undertaken to
Value is for 4
central cities,
ensure good housekeeping in the
Rest of facility. Special procedures shall be
Vietnam 2005 1200 Country CO prepared where necessary.
(proposed) 4.5 (4S) 6.0% 4.2.2.3 Test Parameters to be Measured.
Value is for 4 The following test parameters to be
central cities, measured are as follows:
Rest of a. For gasoline vehicles: Hydrocarbon
Vietnam Country CO
2008(proposed) 3 600 (4S)
(HC) and Carbon Monoxide (CO),
4.5%
 Nox and other pollutants as may be
specified by law
b. For Diesel vehicles: opacity and/or
particulate matters
4.2.2.4 Equipment
a. The center shall have the minimum
test equipment required in the test
procedures, as follows:
i. For testing of gasoline vehicles:
gas analyzer
ii. For testing diesel vehicles:
Opacimeter
b. All emission testing equipment shall
conform to the specifications of the
appropriate Philippine National
Standards (PNS). These equipment
shall be properly calibrated and
have reference/operating manuals.
c. The equipment and its software
used for testing, and sampling shall
be capable o achieving the accuracy
required and shall comply with the
specifications relevant to the tests.
d. Authorized personnel shall operate
the equipment. Up-to-date
instructions on the use and
maintenance of equipment
(including any relevant manuals
provided by the manufacturer of the
equipment) shall be readily
available for use by the appropriate
personnel.
4.2.2 ADB Policy Guidelines on
Emission Standards & Inspection and
Maintenance Programs
4.2.3 What is a Land Transportation
Office Motor Vehicle Inspection System?
4.3 Statistical Modeling & Analysis of
Vehicle Emissions
4.3.1 Measurement techniques
a. Federal Test Procedure
The vehicle is stored overnight at a
prescribed temperature and then rolled
onto a dynamometer where the
vehicle is driven through a standard
30-minute speed/time trace, or
"driving cycle". Tailpipe exhaust is
mixed with a specified amount of
dilution air and collected in large bags
over three distinct portion of the
driving cycle. The first bag captures
the initial "cold start". "Hot stabilized
operation is captured in the second
bag, and emission following a "warm
start" are measured in the third bag.
Gas analyzers measure the
concentrations of hydrocarbons (HC),
carbon monoxide (CO), Oxides of
nitrogen (NOx) and carbon dioxide in
each bag. Concentration units relate
the amount of each pollutant to the
amount of total air collected (e.g., in
percent or parts per million). Mass
emissions during each portion of the
driving schedule are calculated as the
product of the molecular mass and
measure concentration of each
pollutant and the total volume of the
air collected. Mass emissions are then
related to the simulated distance
traveled to yield grams per mile
emission factors for each bag. The bag
gpm emissions are then average
together, weighted by the relative
amount of driving under each section
of the driving cycle, to achieve a
composite gpm exhaust emission rate.
The TP includes measurement of fuel
evaporation during driving cycle, for a
short period after driving ceases (hot
soak), and as the vehicle sits in an
enclose chamber during a multi-hour
temperature cycle (diurnal).
b. Idle Testing
An idle emissions test measure
pollutant concentrations in the tailpipe
exhaust of a stationary vehicle with
no transient vehicle operation and no
engine load. Idle testing is not used
for NOx emissions testing since NOx
are infinite/low during idle. An
enhancement of the basic idle test
involves putting the vehicle in neutral
and revving the engine to 2500 rpm in
an attempt to simulate the vehicle's
emissions under loaded condition.
Idle test procedure was first proposed
in the US Clean Air Act Amendments
(CAA) of 1970 a quick and
inexpensive means to identify in-use
vehicles with irregularly high
emissions.
c. IM240
The IM240 test uses 240 seconds pf
the FTP driving schedule to measure
hot stabilized emissions during
transient and loaded mode vehicle
operation. It is the centerpiece of
guidelines developed by the EP A to
meet the enhanced I/M program
mandate of the 1990 CAAA.
Enhanced I/M was designed to
address several shortcomings of the
original I/M program by 1) measuring
emissions, including NOx , during
loaded mode vehicle operation and 2)
separating vehicle testing from
vehicle repair by requiring a
centralized network of contractor-run-
test-only facilities. Although desired
for Enhanced 11M, no practical tests
are available to measure evaporative
HC emissions in an I/M setting. In the
IM240 test, exhaust emission are run
directly through gas analyzers and can
be quantified on a test-composite or a
second-by-second basis. It was
envisioned that the capability of
analyzing second-by-second emission
would assists mechanics in properly
diagnosing and repairing malfunctions
of the emissions control system.
d. Acceleration Simulation Mode.
The test vehicle is placed on a
dynamometer and run at one or more
distinct operating modes. These
modes are defined as a certain vehicle
load at a given speed. Emissions are
measured in exhaust concentration
using a tailpipe probe, just as in the
idle test. The ASM test can be
considered an improvement over the
idle test in that emissions are
measured when a vehicle is under
load. However, the ASM does not
measure emissions under varying
loads and speeds, as does the IM240.
In addition, NOx emissions, which are
not measured under ASM test.
e. Remote Sensing
Uses a device to remotely measure
the emissions of a vehicle as it is
driven on the road. Remote sensors
measure the changing intensity of a
light beam directed across a roadway
as the beam interacts with a passing
vehicle's exhaust plume. The first
generation sensors used an infrared
source and a series of filters to isolate
specific wavelengths that are
absorbed by the CO, HC, and CO2 in
vehicle exhaust. A video camera
placed alongside the remote sensor
records each vehicle's license plate
information, which is stored together
with the emissions measurement. The
license number can be used to retrieve
information about each vehicle from
registration records. However, there
are limitations to remote sensing. The
instrument accurately
measure the emissions of a given
vehicle as it is being driven for a
fraction of a second only, and,
therefore overall emissions for the
measured vehicle may differ
 considerably from those measured by
one remote measurement. As a result,
a single remote sensing measurement
should not be regarded as an
indicative of typical emissions for any
individual vehicle.
f. On-board Diagnostics
The OBD system is designed to
monitor over 50 parameters of vehicle
and engine operation. If the on-board
computer detects malfunctions or
operations that would tailpipe
emissions greater that 1.5 times the
certification standards, the system
stores a "fault" code in the computer
and turns on a "malfunction indicator
light" (MIL) on the dash board t alert
the driver.
4.3.2 Modeling Mobile Source Emission
a. Overview of Mobile Source
Emissions
b. Mobile-Source Emission Modeling
Approaches
4.4 Statistical Issues in the analysis of in-
use vehicle emissions
Real-world vehicle emissions are
highly variable. Emission variability from
vehicle to vehicle spans several orders of
magnitude, while the emissions of most
vehicles will vary substantially with
environmental driving conditions.
Emissions of some vehicles are
unrepeatable: different emissions occur
from on test to another, even when test
conditions are carefully controlled.
Vehicle-emissions variability is a
consequence of the way emissions are
generated and how they are controlled.
Exhaust emissions are formed in the
engine as a result of unburned fuel, HC,
and partially burned fuel, HC, CO, and
from other undesired side reaction, Knox.
Some vehicle models are simply
designed and manufactured better than
others. Some vehicle models and engine
families are observed to have very low
average emissions while others exhibit
very high rates of emissions control
failure (Wenzel 1997). The design of a
particular emissions control systems
affects both the initial effectiveness and
the lifetime durability of the system,
which in turn contributes to a model-
specific emissions rate.
The distributions of emissions
from large numbers of vehicles are high
skewed. The majority of vehicles have
relatively low emissions, while a
relatively small number of
malfunctioning vehicles have extremely
high emissions (LTO-MID-database). To
overcome this difficulty, analysts have
typically used the forms of the Log-
normal (Stephens 19940 and gamma
(Zhang et al. 1994) distributions to model
vehicle emissions data. One graphical
tool for analyzing this kind of data is to
plot emissions as a function of the
cumulative fraction of vehicles. (Wenzel
2000). Since in many cases, vehicle
emissions approximately follow a log-
normal or gamma distributions,
confidence interval on the mean emission
levels are not symmetric. Also, statistical
tests, such as t-test, which depend on
normality cannot be used to determine
whether the difference in mean emissions
from two groups of vehicles is
statistically significant unless sample size
are large. Further, the emissions of
different pollutants, or different sample
vehicles, may not necessarily follow the
same type of distribution. As previously
suggested, logarithmic transformation is
frequently used to account for the non-
normality of the data; yet this may not be
the appropriate approach to take. For
example, emissions inventory models
developed by EPA and CARB multiply
estimates of the mean emissions of a
group of vehicles by estimates of activity,
such as miles driven and number of starts,
of that group of vehicles. However, if the
mean emissions are calculated based on EMISSION DATA
the logarithmic transformation, then the Emission testing data from different
emissions of any high emitting vehicles
PETC's and MVIS's were obtained from
in the sample are given much less weight
in the estimated mean emission level, and LTO through the Information Technology
the models tend to underestimate fleet (IT) based systems in collecting the
emissions (Pollack et al. 199b). Other emission results. The data set included in
approaches to the problem of non- PETC and MVIS emission test results
normality have been taken, with varying
collected this year from January 2003 to
degrees of success. On way to construct
an approximately normal distribution is to October 2003 with a total of 656,859
consider a collection of average values vehicles. The data provided by the LTO-
representing fairly large, unbiased subsets MID included tested vehicle
of emissions measurement. (Stedman et characteristics such as model year,
al. 1997) demonstrated the usefulness of vehicle manufacturer, vehicle series, date
this method in the context of remote
and time of tests, emission results, date of
sensing measurements taken over a five-
day period. First, the average emission first registration and, fuel type as well as
measured by remote sensing for each day engine specification.
were calculated. On the basis of the well-
known Central Limit Theorem, the five
averages should be approximately
normally distributed if the sample
measured over each of the five days were
unbiased and sufficiently large. The five
averages were then average to obtain an
estimate of fleet-average emission about
which a symmetric confidence interval
could be constructed. Normal statistical
test, such as the t-test, were then applied
(Stedman et al. 1997). Some researchers
are beginning to use nonparametric
techniques, such as bootstrap sampling,
since such techniques do not require an
assumption regarding the distribution of
the underlying population.

III. DATA COLLECTION

STUDY AREAS
The study covers all 12 Regions
including NCR and CARAGA regions.
These comprises 158 PETC's and 1 LTO
-
MVIS or 301 lanes.
 The National Academy of Science.
Modeling Mobile-Source
Emissions. Cc 2000 National
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20460. pp174

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