Part I. Theory
ABSTRACT
has therefore been explained in the framework The nonstationary response y; to stationary
of classical SDM’s as the response of the system random forcing w; in the stochastic model im-
(2.5) to variations of external boundary con- plies that climate variations would continue to
ditions, such as the solar radiation and the tur- grow indefinitely if feedback effects were ig-
bidity of the atmosphere, rather than through nored. These, of course, will begin t o become
internal interactions. effective as soon ns the integration is carried
By a natural extension of the SDM, however, into the region t = O ( t , ) . The properties of the
one can obtain an alternative climatic model random walk model in the ranges t <ty and t =
which yields continuous variance spectra with O ( t , ) will be discussed in more detail in the fol-
the observed “red” distribution directly through lowing sections.
internal interactions. (This, of course, does not The relationship between GCM’s, SDM’s and
exclude the possible significance of additional stochastic forcing models may be conveniently
externally induced climatic changes). Return- summarized in terms of the Brownian motion
ing to eq. (2.3), let 6 y = y ( t ) - y o denote the analogy. The climate variables y and weather
change of the climate state relative to agiven variables x may be interpreted in the analo-
initial state y(t = 0) = y o in a time t <ty suffi- gous particle picture as the (position and mo-
ciently small that y can still be regarded as mentum) coordinates of large and small par-
constant in the forcing term on the right hand ticles, respectively. The analysis of climate
side of the equation. The change may be divided variability in terms of SDM’s is then equivalent
into mean and fluctuating terms, 6y = (6y) + y’ to determining the large-particle paths by con-
where the ensemble average is taken here over sidering only the interactions between the large
all x states for fixed yo (not y). The mean change particles themselves and the mean pressure and
(6y) follows from ( 2 . Q stress fields set up by the small-particle mo-
tions (plus the influence of variable external
<6y,) = (v*>t (2.6)
forces). Numerical experiments with GCM’s
(for this term it is irrelevant whether the aver- correspond in this picture to the explicit com-
age refers to fixed y or yo). The rate of change putation of all paths of the small particles for
of the fluctuating term is given by fixed positions of the large particles. Even if
the large particles were allowed to vary during
(2.7) the computation, it would normally not be
feasible to carry the integrations sufficiently
where (v;) = 0 and y; = 0 for t = 0. far to consider appreciable deviations of the
The statistics of vi(t) are defined through the large particles from their initial positions. Fi-
statistics of the weather variables ~ ( tfor
) given nally, the approach used in the stochastic forcing
yo. It is assumed that x(t), and therefore v(t), model corresponds to the classical statistical
represents a stationary random process. treatment of the Brownian motion problem, in
Equation (2.7) is identical to the equations which the large-particle dispersion is inferred
describing the diffusion of a fluid particle in a from the statistics of the small particles with
turbulent fluid, where y i represents the coor- which they interact. In contrast to the Brownian
dinate vector of the particle and v; the turbulent motion problem, the variables x in the real
(Lagrangian) velocity It is well known from climate-weather system are, of course, not in
this problem (Taylor, 1921, Hinze, 1959) that thermodynamic equilibrium, so that the sta-
for statistically stationary w;,the integration of tistical properties of x cannot be inferred from
(2.7) yields a non-stationary process yi, the co- the statistical thermodynamical theory of
variance matrix <yjy;> growing linearly in time energetically closed systems, but must be evalu-
t for tat,. Taylor pointed out in his original ated from numerical simulations with GCM’s
paper that this result could be interpreted (or from real data). A great reduction of com-
physically as the continuum-mechanical anal- putation is nevertheless achieved through a
ogy to normal molecular diffusion or to Brown- statistical treatment, since relatively little sta-
ian motion. I n fact, for t > t , it is immaterial tistical information on x is actually needed, and
for the (macroscopic) statistical properties of this can be obtained from GCM experiments of
y;, involving time scales >tz,whether the forc- relatively short duration t iatu.
ing is continuous or discontinuous. At first sight it may appear surprising that
a statistical reduction of the complete climate- the solution of (2.7) may be expressed as the
weather system is possible a t all without ar- Fourier integral
bitrary closure hypotheses, since one is ac-
customed to regarding systems involving tur-
bulent geophysical fluid flows as basically ir-
yi(t) = j-m
W
(3.2)
and P , j ( t )= <v;(t+ t ) v ; ( t ) > denotes the covari- The weighting function 2(1 -cos w t ) / w 2 has a
ance function. maximum value equal to t 2 a t w = O and a peak
Physically, the dispersion mechanism may width proportional to l/t. Thus its integral is
be interpreted as the response to a large num- proportional to t, and in the limit of large t , aa
ber of statistically independent random changes the peak becomes infinitely sharp, the function
A y , =w;. At induced in y, a t time increments can be replaced by the &function expression
At of the order of the integral correlation time
of ff;. 2( 1 - cos w t )
It is useful to represent the dispersion pro- I -2ntS(w) (wt>l) (3.8)
W
cess also in the Fourier domain. Writing
For large t (3.7) therefore becomes
(3.3)
J -W <y;y;> = 2ntP,,(O) (3.9)
Tellus XXVIII (1976), 6
478 K. HASSELMANN
(3.11)
spectrum
The left side of the inequality follows from the
restriction to integration times t <ty, which
limits the definition of the spectrum to fre-
quencies large compared with t;'.
The main features of the random walk re-
sponse in the time and frequency domain are
indicated in Fig. 1 .
I n most climatc applications the reponse will
BYg. 1 . Input and response functions of stochasti- lie in the low frequency range w <ti1 where the
cally forced climato model without feed-back; (a) input spcctrum can be regarded as white and
covariances, ( b ) spectra. equation (3.11) is applicable. For the genera-
lization of the theory in the next section it is
important to note that the constant level of the
input spectrum at low frequencies can be deter-
Tho subscript Aw has now been dropped, since
mined from relatively short time series of the in-
the contribution to <y; yj> from frequencies
put, the record length roquired being governed
I o I Atu is constant and therefore becomes by the timc scale of the input, rather than the
'-
either method, application of the random walk with y; =6yi - (&,) as before,
model, for example, to ice sheet data or SST
anomalies indicates that the r.m.s. rate of di- and it =<6yt)/6t -aD,,/ay, or, from (2.6) and
vergence of climate from its present state by (3.11, (3.9)
random weather forcing is considerable: with-
out stabilising feedback the random walk mod- a
6,= <w,> - 32 -P,,(O) (4.3)
el predicts that changes in the extent of the ay,
ice cover comparable with ice-age amplitudes
would occur within time periods of the order Provided the two-scale approximation remains
of a century. The inclusion of feedback is thus valid, eq. (4.1) describes the evolution of a n
essential for a realistic climate model. The gen- ensemble of climatic states with an arbitrary
eralisation to a model including arbitrary in- initial distribution for arbitrary large times.
ternal coupling is carried out in the next sec- The propagation and diffusion coefficients Gt,
tion. D,, will generally be functions of y, both di-
rectly and through their dependence on the
statistical properties of the weather variables
4. The Fokker-Planck equation for a x. The equation includes both direct internal
general stochastic climate model coupling through the propagation term Gl and
indirect feedback through the dependence of
The inequalities tza t <t, limiting the range
the diffusion coefficients on the climatic state.
of validity of the random walk model without
I n practice, the expectation values and
feedback are charactcristic of a two-timing
spectra in (4.2) and (4.3), defined as averages
theory. With respect to the rapidly varying
over an x-ensemble for fixed y, will normally
components of the system the theory represents
be determined from time averages, ra.ther than
an asymptotic infinite-time limit, but at the
through ensemble averaging. I n order that the
same time the analysis is valid only for infini-
average values can be regarded as local with
tesimal changes of the slowly varying com-
respect t o the climatic time scale t, but still
ponents. The standard way of removing the
remain adequately defined statistically with
restriction t <t, is t o interpret the infinitesimal
respect t o the weather variability of time scale
changes of the slowly varying components as
tz,the averaging time T must satisfy the two-
rates of chan,ge, thereby obtaining a differential
sided inequality tz< T <t,. The inequalities
equation which is valid for all times, provid- imply that the spectral density P,,(O) at “zero
ed the original conditions on which the local
frequency” in eqs. (4.2), (4.3) must be inter-
theory was based continue to remain valid.
preted more accurately as the level of the spec-
Since y represents a random variable, the
trum in the frequency range ti1<w at;’-as
appropriate differential equation should be
was already pointed out in connection with eq.
formulated for the probability density distribu-
(3.11). The variance spectra of v, for lower fre-
tion p ( y , t ) of climatic states in the climatic quencies w = O ( r ; ’ ) must be attributed, within
phase space y. For a system in which the mean
the framework of the two-timing theory, t o
value and covariance tensor of the infinitesimal
the slow variations of the mean variables <v,>
changes 6y, - y , ( t ) -yi,o in a n infinitesimal time
on the climatic time scale. Since <v,) depends
interval 6t at, are both proportional to 6t (the
on the local climatic state, the increase of the
effects of the higher moments can be shown t o
variance spectra of the climat,ic variables y,
be small on account of the two-timing condi-
towards lower frequencies will normally be as-
tion (2.4)) the evolution of the probability dis-
sociated with a corresponding increase of the
tribution p(y, t ) is governed by a Fokker-
variance spectra of w i (and the “weather” vari-
Planck equation (cf. Wang and Uhlenbek, 1945)
ables x i ) in this range. This is not in conflict
with the basic premise of a white input spec-
(4’1) trum at “low” frequencies. Essential for the
application of the two-timing concept is that
where
there exists a spectral gap between the “weath-
er” and ‘‘climate” frequency ranges in which
the input spectra are flat (cf. Fig. 2 ) .
Tellus XXVIII (1976), 6
480 K. HASSELMANN
(5.5)
determines the linear response characteristics fusive term in (4.1) results in a broadening of
(transfer functions) of the system. the probability distribution for t 3.0, and clim-
The relation corresponding to (5.15) for the ate prediction therefore always entails some
climate cross spectrum G i j can best be derived degree of statistical uncertainty.
by direct substitution of the Fourier integral A simple quantitativo measure of the pre-
representation (3.3) in the basic climate equa- dictive skill can be defined in terms of the mean
tion climatic state [yi] and the covariance matrix
2
- = vi,yj+ v;
Rij=[(Yi- [ ~ i l ) . ( Y j - [ ~ j l ) l . The mean may be
regarded as the climate “prediction”. (In the
case of a linear system, this is identical with
the most probable climatic state, but in general
One obtains the most probable state and the mean state will
differ.) I n order to introduce a measure of skill
G,,(w) = T,,T,:Fkl(0) (5.18) as a simple number, tho distance d, of the pre-
dicted climate state from the initial state and
where T = ( i w 1 - V)-l ( I=unit matrix). For
the r.m.s. dcviation 8 from the mean must be
diagonal IT, eq. (5.16) becomes
defined in terms of some suitable positive de-
finite matrix M i j ,
(5.17)
mechanisms, climate variability would grow in- the Budyko-Sellers type to a stochastic model
definitely. requires no basic modification of the internal
( 5 ) Despite the stochastic nature of climate structure of the model, but simply the addition
variability, the internal feedback terms in cli- of random driving terms. The relevant statisti-
mate models imply a finite degree of predict- cal properties of the stochastic forcing functions
ability. However, the maximal predicitive skill can be obtained directly from numerical ex-
for a statistically stationary climate system is periments with GCM's or from meteorological
generally no larger than 0.5 and is always data. Thus some of the general properties of
significantly less than unity. stochastic climate models described in this
The discussion in this part of the paper has paper can be tested rather easily by comparing
been restricted to the general structure of observed climatic variability with theoretical
stochastic models, without reference to a spe- predictions obtained with existing SDM's after
cific model. It should be pointed out, however, incorporation of appropriate stochastic forcing
that the extension of a typical S D M of, say, terms (Lemke, 1976).
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