APARRI

LAOAG

SECURING LIFEBOATS & LIFELINES

Understanding Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge / Saltwater Intrusion

PUERTO GALERA

HAGONOY
A comprehensive study involving over 20 experts and
based on over 300 peer reviewed scientific articles.
 OVERVIEW
El Niño Southern Oscillation Events
are likely to continue as a significant source of
inter!annual climate variability in the Coral Triangle region.

Sea Surface Temperatures

are likely to be between 1 to 4oC warmer by the end
of this century.

Tropical Cyclones
are likely to become more intense.There is no clear
Consensus, however, as to whether the location or frequency
of tropical cyclones will change in a warming world.
 OVERVIEW
Ocean Acidification
will likely make the aragonite saturation state “marginal” for
coral reefs and marine life that require calcium carbonate
within the period 2020!2050.

Rainfall and River Flow

are likely to become more extreme. The inter!annual variability
of monsoon rainfall will increase. The intensity of drought associated
with a given rainfall deficit will be greater in a warmer world.

Sea Levels
are likely to rise from +4 to +6 meters due to the possibility of
The melting of the large land-based ice sheets in Antarctica and
Greenland. The possible timing of such events remain uncertain.
 CLIMATE CHANGE…

•! These changes are happening

faster than ever before.

•! They have begun & will continue

for the foreseeable future.

•! They are non-linear and

no one knows when they
will end.

•! There are no assurances

that natural or human systems
can adapt to the rate or extent
of this change.
 SIMULATIONS

+2 METERS
+4 METERS
+6 METERS
Plus a
safety margin
at +12 METERS

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

 •! High threat coastal sites
may become increasingly
inhospitable.

•! Climate refugees may

migrate away from coastal
POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUSareas to inland sites.
ECONOMIC & SOCIAL
DISLOCATIONS, AS WELL
AS NEW ENVIRONMENTAL •! Movement of people and
& POLITICAL PRESSURES. goods may be seriously
curtailed.

•! Basic services and

infrastructure may not be
prepared to handle major
shifts in population.
These are flood simulations,
they are not forecasts.
At best, this might provide a very rough indicator
of areas that may be more vulnerable to
Sea level rise, Storm surge, Saltwater intrusion
or a combination thereof.

The timing and extent of climate change remains uncertain.

These have been generated merely to illustrate the level of potential risk
that parts of the Philippines may be exposed to, in order to allow better preparation.
SEA LEVEL RISE
SIMULATIONS

THE PHILIPPINES
Laoag
+ 12m risk zone
APARRI
+ 12m risk zone
Lingayen Gulf
+ 12m risk zone
Central Luzon
+ safety margin

+ 12m risk zone

Metro - Manila
+12m risk zone
+12m risk zone
Batangas
+12m risk zone
Lucena City
+12m risk zone
Mindoro
+12m risk zone
BUSUANGA
Coron

Culion
+12m risk zone
EL NIDO
+12m risk zone
TAYTAY
+12m risk zone
SAN VICENTE
+12m risk zone
DUMARAN
+12m risk zone
ROXAS
+12m risk zone
PUERTO PRINCESA
+12m risk zone
NARRA
+12m risk zone
ESPANOLA
+12m risk zone
BATARAZA
+12m risk zone
BALABAC
Camarines Sur
+12m risk zone
Boracay
+12m risk zone
Roxas City
 +12m risk zone

+ safety margin
Iloilo City
 +12m risk zone
+ safety margin
Negros Occidental
+12m risk zone
Cebu City / Mactan
+ safety margin

+12m risk zone

Leyte
+12m risk zone
Dumaguete
+ 12m risk zone
Bais
+ 12m risk zone
Surigao
+12m risk zone
Butuan
+12m risk zone
Bugo
+12m risk zone
Cagayan de Oro
+12m risk zone
Iligan
+12m risk zone
Panguil Bay
+12m risk zone
Carmen
+12m safety margin
Panabo
+12m safety margin
Davao
+12m safety margin
Digos
+12m safety margin
General Santos City
+12m risk zone
Cotabato
+ 12m risk zone
 2

Malabang
+ 12m risk zone
3

Pagadian
+ 12m risk zone
 4
Ipil
+ 12m risk zone
Zamboanga

Zamboanga
+ 12m risk zone
5

Basilan
Jolo
Bongao

Tawi Tawi
Sitangkai / Sibutu
WATER
FOOD
HEALTH
LAND / HOME
LIVELIHOOD
THE NAUTICAL
HIGHWAY

All major seaports

will require some
re-engineering.
NEW AVIATION BACKBONE?
Lower Risk to Sea Levels / Storm Surge

Located beyond +6 Meter flood levels

Luzon
Tuguegarao City ( R2 )
Cauayan, Isabela ( R2 )
Baguio City ( CAR )
Angeles City ( R3 )
Lipa City ( R4 )
Naga City ( R5 )
Legaspi City ( R5 )

Visayas
Santa Barbara, Iloilo ( R6 )
Silay City ( R6 )

Mindanao
Cagayan de Oro City ( R10 )
Davao City ( R11 )
General Santos City ( R12 )
Jolo City ( ARMM )
 Adaptive Management

ADDITIONAL “LIFELINE” ELEMENTS

•! Social / Commercial / Political Institutions
•! Telecommunications
•! Energy
•! Banking & Finance
•! Insurance & Risk Coverage
•! Health Systems
•! Disaster Preparation & Response
CLIMATE ADAPTATION

We can prepare for this.

Act now. Locally.