University of Dhaka

Research Proposal
Department of Management Studies
MBA (Evening Program)
Summer, 2010

Course Title : Business Research

Course code : EM- 5

Course Teacher : Professor Dr. Shaker Ahmed

Topic A Research Proposal on Impact of Load

Shedding in Metropolitan Areas of
Dhaka
Date :29-06-2010

Submitted by

Name Roll
Md. Shakil Ahmed 3-09-16-041
Amit Debnath 3-09-16-044
Romena Parvin 3-09-
Sourov Mutsuddi 3-08-14-053
Nahid Rijwan 3-09-17-033
 A Research Proposal on Impact of Load
Shedding in Metropolitan Areas of Dhaka

1. Introduction:
Load shedding is the term used to describe the deliberate switching off of electrical supply to
parts of the electricity network, and hence to the customers in those areas. This practice is
rare, but is a core part of the emergency management of all electricity networks.

Load shedding can be required when there is an imbalance between electricity demand
(customers’ usage) and electricity supply (the ability of the electricity network to generate
and transport the required amount of electricity to meet this demand).

When there is a shortfall in the electricity supply, there can be a need to reduce demand very
quickly to an acceptable level, or risk the entire electricity network becoming unstable and
shutting down completely. This is known as a “cascade” event, and can end in a total or
widespread network shutdown affecting very large areas of a country. Load shedding
normally happens in two ways:

Automatic Load Shedding: This is a result of concurrent failures of major element(s) in the
national grid (e.g. co-incidental generator or key transmission line failures), resulting in
protection schemes initiating the automatic isolation of additional parts of the national grid, to
protect the entire grid from cascading to a total blackout. Automatic load shedding always
occurs on the transmission system level, with the result being large amounts of electricity and
large blocks of customers taken off supply in a very short time. Typical load reduction
amounts can be in the order of 1000MW – 2000MW, affecting hundreds of thousands of
customers.
Manual (Selective) Load Shedding: This occurs where time is available (typically up to
60mins) to make selective choices on what customers are shed. Selective load shedding often
occurs on the distribution system level, and typically requires medium to small amounts of
electricity to be “shed” in a short time. Typical load reduction amounts can be in the order of
50MW – 100MW, affecting tens of thousands of customers at a time. If required, manual
load shedding can also occur at the sub-transmission level, resulting in large blocks of
customers being shed with little to no discrimination between customer types. This situation
is invoked when a large amount of electricity (500MW – 2000MW) is required to be shed in
a timeframe of typically 1mins to 15mins, often under emergency conditions.

The priority assessment for selective load shedding is based on guidelines which have been
ratified by the Bangladesh Government & BPDB.

As a guide, feeders that supply major hospitals, mental health care institutions, remand
centers, sewerage and water pumping stations, industries requiring continuous supply, major
public transport supplies, and traffic lights at major intersections, airports and high rise
buildings will have a higher priority compared to feeders that have a predominantly
residential, commercial or other industrial customer mix.

2. Literature Review:
Electricity sector in Bangladesh
Bangladesh's energy infrastructure is quite small, insufficient and poorly managed. The per
capita energy consumption in Bangladesh is one of the lowest (136 kWh) in the world.
Noncommercial energy sources, such as wood, animal wastes, and crop residues, are
estimated to account for over half of the country's energy consumption. Bangladesh has small
reserves of oil and coal, but very large natural gas resources. Commercial energy
consumption is mostly natural gas (around 66%), followed by oil, hydropower and coal.
Electricity is the major source of power for country's most of the economic activities.
Bangladesh's installed electric generation capacity was 4.7 GW in 2009; only three-fourth of
which is considered to be ‘available’. Only 40% of the population has access to electricity
with a per capita availability of 136 kWh per annum. Problems in the Bangladesh's electric
power sector include corruption in administration, high system losses, and delays in
completion of new plants, low plant efficiencies, erratic power supply, electricity theft,
blackouts, and shortages of funds for power plant maintenance. Overall, the country's
generation plants have been unable to meet system demand over the past decade.

In generating and distributing electricity, the failure to adequately manage the load leads to
extensive load shedding which results in severe disruption in the industrial production and
other economic activities. A recent survey reveals that power outages result in a loss of
industrial output worth $1 billion a year which reduces the GDP growth by about half a
percentage point in Bangladesh. A major hurdle in efficiently delivering power is caused by
the inefficient distribution system. It is estimated that the total transmission and distribution
losses in Bangladesh amount to one-third of the total generation, the value of which is equal
to US $247 million per year.

Renewable Energy: Bangladesh has 15 MW solar energy capacities through rural

households and 1.9 MW wind power in Kutubdia and Feni. Bangladesh has planned to
increase renewable energy 450 MW by 2015 and 1600 MW by 2020.
Recent Plans: The Ministry of Power and Energy has been mobilizing Tk 40,000 crore
($5.88 billion) to generate 5,000 MW of electricity to reduce load shedding into a tolerable
level within next four and half years during the term of the present government. Under the
plan, the Power Development Board (PDB) would produce 500 MW gas-fired electricity
between July and December, 2009 to over come load shedding within December. The PDB
would hire furnace-oil based 1,000MW of electricity from private sector from January to
June 2010, the plan said. In 2011, the government would install furnace-oil based 800 MW
capacity of power plant. The PDB officials would seek suitable place to establish the plant, a
senior official of the PDB said. Besides the government would also hire another diesel or
furnace oil based power plant having capacity of 700 MW in 2012 to keep load shedding into
mild level, the official said. However, the government also contemplates to establish four
coal-fired based power plants with capacity of producing 500 MW of electricity each with
public and private partnership (PPP) in Rajshahi and Chittagong region. The government has
initially tried to create fund of Tk 6,000 crore to implement the plan, sources said. The power
division has tried to utilize the government's budgetary allocation of Tk. 2000 crore for PPP
in this regard, sources added. "If we can create the fund of Tk. 6,000 crore, it would be
possible also to mobilize Tk 40,000 crore under PPP to produce 5,000 MW f electricity
within four and half years," PDB chairman ASM Alamgir Kabir told the New Nation on
June 29, 2010. During the meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina permitted the power
division to implement the PDB plan to reduce load shedding up to a tolerable level.
Nuclear Power Plant: Bangladesh plans to set up the 1,000 MW powerplant at Rooppur,
200 km (125 miles) northwest of the capital haka, by 2011.

3. Objectives
The overall objective of the research is to collect socio-economic data from the selected areas
in order to use them in and impact studies. The specific objectives of the survey will be to
collect data relating to the following variables:
1. Age & Gender
2. Educational Qualification
3. Occupation: Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Student
4. Location
 5. Income level
The specific objectives are -
> Experience of load shedding
> Hours of load shedding and frequencies
> Bearable hours
> Adopted for alternatives
> Affected with respect to time and season
> Affected activities
> Solutions taken at personal/ household level
> Degree of problem
> What is the main reason behind this recent power crisis in Bangladesh?
> Is corruption and technical system loss are only responsible about this power crisis?
> What should be the role of government to reduce this Power crisis?

4. Methodology:
4.1 Major points:
 Research type – Exploratory Research
 Population size – People of Dhaka City
 Sample size – 100 People
 Sampling technique – Multistage Stratified Random
Sampling
 Nature of data collection – Primary data
 Data collection instrument – questionnaire
 Data processing instrument – SPSS and EXCEL

4.2 Research Method

A descriptive research approach will be used to conduct the study. We will use the survey
method and secondary data.

4.3 Sources of Data

1. Primary Data
2. Secondary Data
Primary Data: We will collect our primary data to figure out the main reasons and public’s
reaction about load shedding and power crisis in Bangladesh by conducting a survey on 100
general people. To do that survey first we have to prepare some questions and some suitable
answers against each question. Then we have to pretest that questionnaire out side of the
sample.
After that we will go out for general people to conduct our survey. The businessmen,
shopkeepers, doctors, teachers, retired peoples, servants, housewives and students will be
participating in our survey.
Secondary Data: We will collect our primary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
(BBS), Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), and from internet. However, bulk of
the data will be collected from primary sources.

4.4 Study Area:

As we will conduct the survey within Dhaka city, first we will select five small areas
randomly, as our survey team has five members. Then we will select twenty samples from
each area for conducting our survey.

4.5 Sample Size:

Our Sample Size is predefined by our teacher Dr. Shaker Ahmed, and it is 100.

4.6 Sample Selection Procedures:

In sample Selection, we will use Multistage Stratified Random Sampling. That is, we will
divide the whole Dhaka city in small areas and select five small areas randomly. We will
select residential areas as well as business and trade areas to conduct our research. Then from
each of the five areas, we will select twenty people as sample. We will try to involve all types
of people as, Businessmen, Jobholder, Household, Students in our survey.

4.7 Instruments to be used:

We will collect data using questionnaire. The questionnaire will first be pretested out side the
sample area and then it will be administered in the test area.

4.8 Implementation:
The following activities will be performed by Team Members in 3 phases:
 Data collection
 Data processing
 Report writing

4.8.1 Data Collection

4.8.2 Data Processing
4.8.3 Report Writing
5. Schedule of Survey