Abstract
This study identified factors associated with the decision to enroll in a higher education
credentialing program, this study identified six variables that are strongly related to the
likelihood to enroll: time out of school; possibilities for intellectual, personal, and career
and match with an academic reputation. Results suggest that enrollment is the result of an
interaction among situational, occupational, and institutional factors rather than primarily a
commitment is a negotiated activity in which self-interests are balanced among various other
interests, including the employer, family, friends, and identity as a learner. This study
contributes to the literature by suggesting that time out of school is strongly related to the
decision to enroll.
Adult Enrollment 3
Adult learners account for almost half of higher education enrollments in the United
States; and in the next decade, they may exceed the number of traditional-age college
entrants (Kim, Collins, Williamson, & Chapman, 2004). As more adults enroll in higher
education degree programs, factors that are associated with their enrollments assume greater
importance. Although trends suggest that adults will return to college throughout their
careers (Blumenstyk, 2006), most will not complete their planned programs of study (Horn &
Berger, 2004). Perhaps not working through the ramifications of the decision fully causes
If higher education is associated with more knowledgeable citizens and a more highly
skilled workforce, and if adults are not completing their programs of study, then institutions
need to better understand why this occurs. Knowledge of the factors adults consider when
understanding the negotiations among social relationships that take place as adults
assist higher education institutions in developing strategies for helping adults decide to
enroll.
large Midwestern university. The study examined the extent to which enrollment in a higher
Specifically, the study explored this primary research question: What is the factor structure
education? A secondary research question was also addressed: How well does a model
derived from the participation literature explain how adults make the decision to enroll in a
Literature Review
Research into adult enrollment patterns has evolved from identifying adults’ reasons for
enrolling in learning opportunities (Houle, 1961; Johnstone & Rivera, 1965) to examining the
social, environmental, situational, and institutional factors that influence enrollment (Balatti
& Falk, 2002; Cross, 1981; Kilpatrick, Field, & Falk, 2003; Smart & Pascarella, 1987; Stein
Johnstone and Rivera (1965) suggested that the foundation for adult participation was
suggested that adults might attend educational programs as an opportunity to socialize with
others; i.e., attendance at an educational program was an opportunity to interact with others
(1981) suggested five considerations for participation in a learning experience: (a) attitudes
toward education; (b) assessment of the ability to succeed; (c) costs of enrollment versus the
benefits that might accrue; (d) life phase or the timing of the decision; and (e) availability of
information concerning the program, institution, and services available to assist the
learner. The considerations are linked and must be addressed before a learner might move
Smart and Pascarella (1987) proposed a model of the factors associated with the
intention of adults to resume higher education that shows variables ordered in a causal
characteristics of the adults’ employers, and career experiences, all of which influence adults’
current self-concept. Smart and Pascarella suggest that the intention to resume higher
Yang, Blunt, and Butler (1994) introduced the behavioral intention model as a way to
Subjective norms were shown to be the most influential variable in predicting enrollments,
giving additional support to the role of social interactions in helping to form the decision to
participate.
(2007) suggest that the decision to participate in a complex process involves various decision
points. Life transitions and institutional barriers figure predominately in the decision to
enroll. Factors may be weighted differently by the life circumstances of each adult. Models
are useful in portraying the adult learner as an information seeker and evaluator of multiple
factors, including impact on family, job circumstances, role expectations, perceived benefits,
and costs.
The contribution of the models is that the adult learners are seen in a flow pattern
constantly collecting, monitoring, and evaluating information. The models recognized that
the adult is an active decision maker evaluating a variety of circumstances arising from the
Adult Enrollment 6
life space (Wildemeersch & Leriman, 1988). The decision to seek formal or nonformal
Jung and Cervero (2002) proposed a societal model suggesting that participation is a
budgetary practices supporting higher education, and the state’s occupational profile.
However, the authors stated that it is unclear how those variables influenced the decision to
over which the adult learner has no control, including institutional and societal forces.
The timing of the decision to enroll is also emerging as an important area of interest
for institutions of higher education. The decision to enroll and to persist is a complex process
that does not occur at a moment in time but is a decision made over a period of time (Cross,
Research into adult enrollment patterns has concentrated on the course level of
participation. Few studies have described patterns related to the decision to enroll and
commit to a degree program (Brown, 2002). In addition, the research has not focused on
courses. Our reading of the literature suggests that the decision to enroll in a course of study
is a complex, multifaceted process. A comparison of the major studies shows between five
and eight factors that explain from 41% to 72% of the variance in the dependent variable
related to participation, indicating that much is still unknown about the factors adults
consider when deciding to participate in an adult education activity and how those factors
work (Beder, 1990; Darkenwald & Valentine, 1985; Drake, 1988; Garrison, 1988; Henry &
In line with the model-building movement, Stein and Wanstreet (2006) have
proposed a conceptual framework from the literature describing the factors adults consider
when deciding to enroll in higher education. The framework was an attempt to synthesize
major findings from the participation literature. The decision to enroll is a cognitive,
emotional, and relational decision considered within the web of family, work, social,
financial class, gender, institutional support, and program delivery considerations (see Figure
1). The participation literature suggests that models have been built from data. However,
given the body of knowledge that has accumulated over the years, we ask how well our
knowledge can be used to predict enrollments in formal adult education programs requiring a
substantial commitment of time, energy, and fiscal resources. This study tests a framework
with four theoretically derived factors against the data. How these factors work in the
program in workforce development and adult education is the question for this study.
This ex post facto, associational study identified factors adults consider when
adults with e-mail addresses who had inquired about admission or applied to any of the
large Midwestern university between 2003 and 2006. A questionnaire developed by the
researchers was sent via e-mail to the accessible population in September 2006. Two follow-
Instrument Development
program. Independent variables included gender, age, race, job title, distance from course
based on the perceived level of influence multiple factors may have had in the decision-
making process. The factors were related to securing a pathway to a better life; reflecting on
prior learning experiences; synchronizing learning, earning, and living; and fitting into an
academic life. Intent to enroll was measured on a 48-item questionnaire developed by the
researchers based on Scanlan and Darkenwald (1984) and Darkenwald and Valentine (1985).
The scale has been modified by various researchers to accommodate the groups investigated
as well as the settings (Blais, Duqueite, & Painchaud, 1989; Hayes, 1988; Henry & Basile,
1994).
Content and face validity was established through a panel of experts. Two adult
learners who had recently made the decision to enroll in higher education and an associate
professor of workforce development and education served as the subject matter experts. The
adult learners were given an initial list of 51 statements related to enrolling in a higher
education program and were asked to check “yes” if the statement crossed their minds during
the decision-making process or “no” if it did not. After the items were refined and reduced to
the influence of the final 48 items on a five-point scale on their decision to enroll. One (not
influential) was the low point and five (very greatly influential) was the high point.
Methodological Issues
The questionnaire was administered through the Web using the Flashlight™ survey
tool. Three issues were addressed to protect the identity of the population: (a) collection of IP
Washington State University where server logs record connection information, such as IP
addresses of survey participants. However, the IP addresses are not stored with the survey
responses. In addition, server logs are not available to users of Flashlight. Therefore, the IP
the lack of tracking would prohibit sending follow-up messages to non-respondents’ e-mail
addresses. The researchers enlisted a third party to assign an identifier code and send follow-
up messages as needed without compromising the identity of the respondents. The identifier
Spam Filters. To reduce the likelihood of the e-mail invitation to participate being
rejected by spam filters, the third party sent an individual message to each potential
participant so that no single message was sent to more than one address. The subject line
avoided using keywords that trigger spam filters, and no file attachments were included. A
brief message explained the study and included a Web link to the questionnaire where the
Adult Enrollment 10
participants could complete the survey. Less than five messages were rejected by aggressive
Questionnaire Responses
incentives to motivate completion, which may account for the 18% response rate. One
questionnaire was too incomplete to be used. In the case of 13 questionnaires with between
one and six answers missing, mean substitution was used. Respondents included 47 females
and 28 males. Ages at the time of the decision to enroll ranged from 18 to 60, with a mean
age of 37 for women and 35 for men. Forty-nine respondents enrolled in a workforce
development credentialing program, of whom 21 were males and 28 were females. Twenty-
six respondents did not enroll (seven males and 19 females). Six of the 26 respondents who
Results
Factor Structure
assess the factor structure underlying the decision to enroll. The analysis used a maximum
likelihood extraction method and a promax rotation to determine which factors were
correlated. The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin measure was .724, indicating that the correlations were
adequate for factor analysis (Meyers, Gamst, & Guarino, 2006). Similarly, Bartlett’s test of
sphericity was significant (p<.001), indicating sufficient correlation between the variables to
proceed with the analysis (Meyers et al., 2006). Readers should be cautioned about
Adult Enrollment 11
interpreting results due to the small sample size. However, the sample size met the minimum
Using the Kaiser-Guttman retention criterion of eigenvalues greater than 1.0 resulted
in an 11-factor solution that accounted for 76% of the total variance. However, an
examination of the scree plot indicated that five factors, all with eigenvalues greater than 2.0,
accounted for 57% of the total variance with the remaining factors providing diminishing
returns. Therefore, a five-factor solution was chosen since it provided the clearest extraction.
Tables 2-6 show the items and mean scores. Communalities were high for each of the items,
ranging from .656 to .913. Cronbach’s coefficient alpha is .93 for Factor 1, .86 for Factor 2, .
81 for Factor 3, .64 for Factor 4, and .56 for Factor 5, indicating good subscale reliability for
12.15) accounted for 30% of the variance and had 14 items. Items that pertain to
the perceived ability to complete the program ( = 4.56 out of 5), to obtain an
education that suits the learner’s professional image ( = 4.43), to increase career
2. Institutional Support (eigenvalue = 3.91) accounted for 10% of the variance and
variance and had six items. Employer funding emerged as an important item in
4. The Reflective Learner (eigenvalue = 2.49) accounted for 6% of the variance and
had four items. Confidence in learning abilities ( = 4.41) and past academic
success as a precursor to future success ( = 4.09) were the items rated most
important.
variance and had three items. The importance of a recognizable credential in the
WDE field emerged as the most important item in this factor ( = 4.20).
Predicted Enrollment
The second research question examined how well the five-factor PRISM model
predicted enrollment. Logistic regression with simultaneous entry was used to predict group
membership; i.e., group enrolled or group not enrolled. The predictor variables used in the
initial regression model are the scores for Possibilities for Intellectual, Personal, and Career
Prediction success for the cases used in the model was moderate, with an overall
prediction success rate of 68% and correct prediction rates of 86% for WDE professionals
Adult Enrollment 13
who enrolled in a postsecondary workforce development academic program and 35% for
those who did not enroll. The Nagelkerke pseudo R2 indicated that the model accounted for
Because the literature suggested that timing of the decision is important, a second
analysis was conducted adding Length of Time Out of School Before Enrolling (based on the
median score of 6, this variable was coded 0 = 1-6 years, 1 = 7+ years). The Nagelkerke
pseudo R2 indicated that the model accounted for 22% of the total variance in the decision to
enroll. Prediction success increased, with an overall prediction success rate of 73%. Correct
prediction rates increased to 91% for WDE professionals who enrolled in a postsecondary
workforce development academic program, while the prediction rate for those who did not
in higher education improve by 145% if they have been away from school for seven or more
match with the institution’s reputation, the odds of estimating enrollment correctly improve
by 25%. Institutional support improves the odds of estimating enrollment correctly by 5%.
Table 1 also shows the regression coefficients (B), the Wald statistics, significance level, and
the 95% confidence intervals (CI) for odds ratios for each predictor.
Discussion
Adult Enrollment 14
Using studies published in the adult enrollment literature, Stein and Wanstreet (2006)
proposed a conceptual PRiSM decision framework for adult enrollment that integrated four
themes: pathway to a better life; the reflective learner; synchronizing learning, earning, and
living; and match with an academic life. In the context of predicting enrollment in a
workforce development credentialing program, the present study identified six variables:
time out of school; possibilities for intellectual, personal, and career opportunities;
institutional support; synchronizing learning and earning; reflective learner; match with an
academic reputation.
time. With women in this study having a mean age of 37 and men a mean age of 35, time out
of school implies that the participants have experience in their field and are ready to take
advantage of learning opportunities that are focused on career advancement. Time may also
program in higher education. While the job-related notion of adults returning to school is
prevalent in the participation literature, this study suggests that it is one of many factors
learners may consider. In addition, middle-aged adult learners have had time to settle child-
rearing and other life issues before making a long-term commitment to a special field and a
specific program.
Regarding possibilities for intellectual, personal, and career opportunities, this study
suggests that learners have developed an image of themselves as professionals and perceive
that furthering their education will enhance their image and their career opportunities. While
intellectually challenging, it is also important that the learners perceive they will be able to
institutional support in this study. Adult-centered institutions that recognize the time
demands their learners face not only develop programs that can be completed in a reasonable
time but also eliminate time-wasting barriers by making the enrollment process easy, having
convenient bookstore hours, and offering readily available technical support. With time being
a finite resource, adult learners expect to invest their time in learning rather than in trying to
secure books, for example. When deciding to enroll, learners consider the ease with which
they can navigate through the institutional environment to secure the resources they need and
accomplish the work they need to do. Institutions that do not have an adult-centered culture
higher education. In addition, employers who encourage participation and provide time off to
attend classes can reduce the stress of balancing work and educational responsibilities for
This study suggests that learners who reflect on their academic success will make a
more informed enrollment decision. Confident learners who have been successful in school
perceive the importance of that experience to their decision. In addition, learners felt it was
important to sacrifice what little leisure time they had. This presents an opportunity for
faculty to work with adults on readiness issues. Adults with limited previous academic
Adult Enrollment 16
success may be at a place in their lives where they can make the commitment necessary to
For the working professionals in this study, it was important to enroll in a program
with a good reputation that offered a recognizable credential in the WDE field. The payoff
for the investment of time, money, and intellectual energy is a credential that will improve
their professional image and career path and give the learners a feeling of personal
which may not have been captured by the original questionnaire or in the revisions to the
DPS. While PRISM-T explained 22% of the observed variance in the decision to enroll, this
indicates that additional variables are needed to more fully explain the decision-making
process. The model presented in this study is in line with previous reported findings. Thus,
there appears to be reliability in the findings and the factor structure of the decision to
participate in adult learning opportunities. However, since more of the variance needs to be
program assess the extent to which the program will challenge them intellectually and
occupationally and determine the degree to which they are ready and able to commit
intellectual, financial, and social resources in pursuit of higher education. The present
framework also suggests that adults need time to establish their careers and families before
particular higher education program may be influenced by the resources one has acquired
from past educational, occupational, and social situations. Who participates and when the
decision to participate is reached may depend on the resources the adult learner has
assembled during the “thinking through” stage while making the decision to enroll in a
sustained program of study in higher education. Smith (as cited in Cookson, 1986) suggests
that individuals who decide to enroll in adult education programs possess higher levels of
resources and access to resources compared to those who do not participate in adult
education. McClenaghan (2000, 2003) also suggests that social and cultural capital can
an adult may have toward education. Education might be seen as a vehicle for advancement
or a means for leaving the community behind, thus isolating the adult learner from the
community. Participation in higher education may be seen as threatening the norms and
stability of one’s local network. The networks in which learners are embedded outside of
formal education influence the ways in which formal and informal (Shrestha, Wilson, &
Singh, 2008) learning opportunities are perceived as valuable and worthwhile financial,
The PRISM-T framework also suggests that the decision to enroll in a long-term
commitment is a negotiated activity in which self-interests are balanced among various other
interests, including the employer, family, friends, and identity as a learner. Policies directed
toward increasing the number of adult learners in degree programs must take account of the
complex social environment in which the adult life is embedded (Gorard, Rees, Fevre, &
Welland, 2001). Institutions interested in enrolling adult learners should seek to understand
Adult Enrollment 18
the web of relationships that influence the decision-making process (Pusser et al., 2007) and
perhaps provide opportunities for adults to learn how to envision a program of study as a
negotiated program planning process (Cervero & Wilson, 2006) in which adult learners come
to understand and discuss the social, organizational, structural, and personal factors involved
Although this study explored only one higher education program, in terms of
practice, it suggests enrollment strategies at the institutional and program level. At the
institutional level, postsecondary organizations that offer convenient bookstore and library
hours, have readily available technology support, establish an easy enrollment process, and
accommodate special needs can positively influence the enrollment decision-making process.
Postsecondary institutions need to make serving the adult a central part of their support
system and that faculty need to understand adult life patterns and the need for flexibility in
working with adult learners (Maehl, 2000, & Brown, 2002). Programs that offer a
reasonable time, and enlist faculty to work with adults on readiness and synchronization
issues should increase their enrollments. The importance of these factors may change given
the type of program adults are considering and their stage in life.
institutions might: (a) communicate the benefits of enrolling in terms of a return to the
community (or family, or business), (b) reinforce the message that further education will help
adults cope with technology, (c) help adult learners understand that relationships at work will
change and provide support when the changes occur, and (d) show that other learners like
Adult Enrollment 19
them are in the program and that new supportive networks can be built through participation
in formal education.
Other factors influence the decision to enroll. This study affords a glimpse into
adults’ thought processes and issues related to a few of the myriad factors that come into
Institutions may want to help adults work through these issues in the context of their timing
in the adult’s life. We suggest that unless these issues are resolved, it may be unlikely that an
adult student will enroll. Our adult lives are embedded in powerful and overlapping
networks. Considering participation in that context can help adult educators better understand
how networks influence enrollment decisions and are based on the interlocking relationships
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Figure Caption
Figure 1. Conceptual model of the complex, multifaceted process related to the decision to
Figure Caption
Figure 2. Empirical model of the factor related to the decision to enroll in a workforce
Results for Predicting Whether WDE Professionals Will Enroll in a Postsecondary WDE
Degree Program.
95.0% C.I.for
Exp(B)
Earning