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Climate Change in the

Philippine Setting: Extreme


Weather Events, Observed
Facts and Future Projections

PCIERD 28th Anniversary


Nathaniel T. Servando, Ph.D. Hyatt Hyatt Hotel, Manila
PAGASA-DOST 17 March 2010
Presentation Outline
• Overview
• Climate Change over the Philippines:  
Facts, Manifestations & Concerns, Future 
Projections
• How do we respond?
• Concluding statement
Climate Change
What’s it all about?
9 Climate change is a Global, Regional
& Local concern
9 Climate change will generally increase
disaster risks
- Increase in extreme weather events
- Increase in sea-level rise
- Increase in societal vulnerabilities to hazards
Climate Change
What’s it all about?

9 The science is clear: it is happening,


and is linked directly to human activity.

9 Global temperature trend has


accelerated in recent years
Climate Change Impacts
9 The Question is not whether we will
see impacts, but how many are we
seeing now, and what we can do
about them.

9 Impacts now are larger, faster, more


widespread than we had anticipated
10 years ago.
The Earth is getting hotter

2005 was the highest year on record


2005
2007
1998
2002
2003
2006
2004
2001

~0.8oC temperature increase during last century


Climate Change:
What’s it all about?

9The problem is not just


changing temperature
but changing climate

9 Or a change in weather
patterns (extreme
events)
Climate Change over RP:
Facts and manifestations

1.5
Anomaly

Increase in  1.0 5 year running mean


Linear (5 year running mean)

Temperature Anomalies (°C)


annual mean  0.5

temperature by  0.0

0.61oC during  -0.5 y = 0.0109x - 0.2423

the last half  -1.0

century -1.5
51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 01 06

Year
Percent of Time TMAX >= 90th Percentile of Maximum Temperature

There are already trends  30
Period: 1961-2005

of increasing number of  25

hot days and warm 
20

P e rc e n t
15

nights, 10

0
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001

but decreasing number Year

of cold days and cool


nights. Percent of Time TMIN >= 90th Percentile of Minimum Temperature
Period:1961-2005
35.00

30.00

25.00

Both maximum and


P e rc e n t
20.00

15.00

minimum temperatures 10.00

5.00

are generally getting 0.00


1961 1966 1971 1976 1981
Year
1986 1991 1996 2001

warmer.
Climate Change over RP:
The Concerns

Extreme 
weather/climate 
events like intense 
rains have been 
seen to be more 
frequent
Damaging Storms &
Typhoons, Intense rainfall
events

ORMOC FLASHFLOOD
November 1991

PANAON ISLAND
FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2003

INFANTA & AURORA


FLASHFLOOD
Dec 2004

ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006
Typhoon “Reming”
Nov. 2006
Typhoon Frank
(Fengshen) June 21, 2008. (MV Princess
of the Stars) www.

Typhoon “Frank”
June 2008

Storm “Ondoy” &


Typhoon “Pepeng” 2009
Damages and Losses
Extreme Climate variability
(ENSO of 2010) 1-15 Mar.
2010
Rainfall Maps
Nov. 2009

Oct. 2009

Sept. 2009

Jan. 2010

Dec. 2009
Extreme Climate variability
(ENSO of 2010)

APEC Climate Center


March 2010 Projected
Rainfall

April 2010
Extreme Climate variability
(ENSO of 2010)
June 2010

May 2010
April 2010 Projected
Rainfall
Impacts  of ENSO

ENSO drought events


and rice

1oC increase leads to


15% decrease in rice
yield
Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related
Disasters Impact across many Sectors,
Setting Back Socio-Economic Development

Energy Water Resource


Management

Transport Food security

Industry
Trends in the Number of TC
TRENDS IN TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE PHILIPPINES

1971-00
250

1951-80

1961-90
200

51-80
Number

150
61-90
71-00
100

50

LUZON
Luzon VISAYAS
Visayas
MINDANAO
Mindanao
Climate Change over RP: JJA 2050
Future Projections
• Based on SRES A1B 
scenario, Increase in 
annual mean temperature 
of 0.9 to 1.1oC by  2020, 
and about 1.9 to 2.2 oC by 
2050 MAM_2050

• Increase in rainfall of 
about 45% in some areas 
during wet season
Climate Change over RP: DJF_2020

Future Projections

• Reduction in rainfall of 
about 25% during DJF

• Drier season of March‐ DJF_2050
April become drier, wet 
season of MAM, and JJA 
become wetter
How do we respond? 
‰ Adaptation to changes that we can not avoid
- Need tools to know what to adapt to
and how effective coping strategies
might be

‰ Because changes occurring now, have both


coping to current circumstances and
questions about planning for future
circumstances to consider

‰ Requires some knowledge on regional and


local climate changes and environmental
consequences
Upgrading of Flood Forecasting and Warning 
System

• Modernization of Pampanga
and Agno River Basin Flood
Forecasting and Warning
System

• Establishment of
Community-Based Flood
Monitoring and Early
Warning System
Establishment of state‐of‐the art  
Doppler Weather Radar Network

• Virac (JICA)
• Aparri (JICA)
• Guian (JICA)
• Tagaytay (OP)
• SBMA (OP)
• Cebu (OP)
• Hinatuan
• Tampakan
• Baguio upgrading (DOST)
• Baler upgrading (DOST)
Public Information & Awareness Campaign
Risk assessment & Multi-hazard Mapping
Ground shaking Ground rupture

Earthquake-induced Liquefaction
Landslide
Community-based Flood Early Warning Drills
Advanced Science (Space Technology Applications)
Upgrading and Establishment  of 
Ground Meteorological Satellite Facilities

• MTSAT Receiving Station


(Q.C. and Cebu)
• NOAA Satellite Ground
Receiver
• MODIS
• FY2 Chinese Satellite
Automatic
weather stations

• Meteorological Buoys
• Wind Profilers
Upper‐air Station Network

• Laoag
• Tanay
• Legaspi
• Cebu
• Davao
Upgrading of Meteorological 
Communications System

Wx Station
• Cellur-based Central Forecasting Center

forecast
dissemination TEL
• VSAT CO
• Backup SSB Radio Wx Station

Wx Station

Wx Station Wx Station
Wx Station
Cellular‐based PAGASA network 
Concluding statement
Recent extreme weather events whether or not are
manifestations that Climate Change is now within
our shores, perhaps are WAKE UP CALLS.

Now is the time for us to act … & address the


reality about Climate Change.
THANK YOU