2010 update
Letter from John W. Rowe
FALL 2010
This report marks our second annual progress report on Exelon 2020: a low carbon roadmap,
our plan to reduce, offset or displace our company’s 2001 carbon footprint by the year 2020.
We developed this initiative in 2008 believing that a clean energy portfolio is both good public
policy and good business.
Two years later, Exelon is halfway to our goal of abating 15.7 million metric tons of carbon
dioxide (CO2) emissions per year. This is equivalent to taking about 1.5 million cars off the road
every year. The details of our accomplishments can be found on pages 12-26 of this report and
come from throughout the company. Given this progress, I am confident that we will achieve
our 2020 goal and will do so in a way that will create increasing value for Exelon’s shareholders.
We are very proud of Exelon 2020. It reflects the unique contribution of our fleet of 17 nuclear
reactors and the planning we began in 1998 to prepare for increasing environmental limitations
on coal. It underscores the value of Exelon’s assets in a carbon-constrained, clean energy
world. Exelon 2020 serves as Exelon’s resource plan, as a guide to our investment decisions
and as a framework for our public policy advocacy. It tells us which actions have the highest
opportunities for our shareholders while also providing our customers with reliable, clean
energy at the lowest costs. Exelon 2020 tells us which projects are more or less effective in
reducing carbon and more or less economic. In short, Exelon 2020 serves as the business strategy
that cements Exelon’s value as the premier low-carbon company in the U.S. utility industry.
Our record makes clear that we are committed to a clean, low-carbon energy supply. However,
we are equally committed, especially in today’s challenging economy, to avoiding unnecessary
costs. Exelon 2020 is a roadmap for advancing market-driven innovation and economic options.
Our clean energy investments will spur the creation of jobs within Exelon and at hundreds
of supplier companies. But there is no need to promote clean energy subsidies at any cost. At
Exelon we are making new clean energy investments while minimizing the costs our customers
will pay for a clean energy future.
Our business strategy, as synthesized by Exelon 2020, is predicated Each $10 per metric ton of carbon increases retail electricity prices
on the following principles. by roughly an incremental $0.01 per kilowatt hour. Becoming lower
carbon today by relying too much on wind, new nuclear plants, solar
A clean energy portfolio, based on sound economics, creates energy and clean coal could double the retail electricity price in many
compelling value. While climate legislation is unlikely in the near markets. Considering the nascent state of the economic recovery and
future, fossil fuels face a variety of challenges. The U.S. Environmental the sobering federal budget outlook, those are costs that we should not
Protection Agency (EPA) is under statutory mandates to increase pay. There are more affordable ways to ensure a clean energy portfolio.
the regulation of hazardous air pollutants and coal combustion
byproducts. Inefficient, higher-polluting coal plants will become more Pursuing the cheapest options offers the greatest benefits for our
expensive to operate, creating incentives for these supply sources to customers, shareholders and the economy. Exelon’s primary actions to
be retired. Abundant supplies of natural gas, coupled with other clean reduce our carbon footprint (shown on the left side of the Exelon Supply
energy options, will enable the economic and reliable replacement of Curve on page 6) include: retiring four inefficient, carbon-intensive fossil
that capacity where needed. This transition can be accomplished while generating units in Pennsylvania; customer energy efficiency programs
maintaining electric system reliability and protecting consumers from at ComEd and PECO; and uprates at our existing nuclear plants. These
excessive rates. initiatives are responsible for more than 75 percent of our targeted
carbon reductions. Projects like energy efficiency programs will save our
The United States is moving toward a lower-carbon, less-polluting customers money, while investments in some nuclear uprates are value-
society, but in uneconomic fits and starts. We now have a patchwork creating opportunities for Exelon’s investors and provide cheap, low-
of low-carbon energy policies at the federal and state levels. Prominent carbon energy to the electricity markets we serve. When more capacity
among them are mandates for utilities to buy renewable power; tax is needed, natural gas is the lowest-cost option. By prioritizing these
credits for wind and solar power; loan guarantees for new nuclear projects based on their economics, Exelon 2020 represents a business
plants and other clean energy options; and funding for clean coal. strategy that delivers superior value to Exelon’s customers and investors
Yet the economics underlying Exelon 2020 – based on projects we while also helping to eliminate our carbon footprint and reducing
have considered in the markets in which we operate – tell us that conventional pollutants.
current policies largely promote the expensive options and neglect
the cheapest ones. (The economics are depicted in the Exelon Supply
Curve on page 6.) Selecting generation technology based on short-
term perspectives does not work for consumers and does not work for
utilities. New wind power currently requires a carbon price of $80 to
$120 per metric ton to become economically break-even, new merchant
nuclear plants require $100 per metric ton, clean coal (if the technology
can be proved) requires $500 per metric ton, and solar requires as
much as $675 per metric ton.
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Exelon 2020 is not static; it is a directional roadmap. The Exelon Supply • I nvestments in new electricity generation are not required in
Curve that shows the costs of carbon reduction is a snapshot in time. It our markets until we see EPA action on pollutants that forces coal
changes with the price of natural gas and as the supply of and demand retirements. It is wise to have an energy policy that keeps all options
for electricity changes. Since we first introduced the Supply Curve in alive – including new nuclear plants, solar and clean coal. But large
2008, the order of the options has been relatively constant, but the generation build-out at this time will give customers much more
curve has steepened and many options have become more costly. For power than they need at prices they should not have to pay.
now, the curve demonstrates that there is no large-scale need to build
new generation in our markets, and that when we do need to build, A price on carbon remains essential to ensuring that national efforts
there will be clean generation that is economic. Undoubtedly, both to address climate change are undertaken at the lowest possible
demand and costs will change further in the coming years. Exelon 2020 cost. Without a price on carbon, the United States will overlook many
provides a comprehensive view of all the options. This is a strategy that, cost-effective solutions while continuing to spend billions on more
based on its real-time flexibility and market orientation, will serve our speculative, less reliable and more expensive ones. Nonetheless,
customers, markets and investors well. the pending suite of EPA regulations provides ample strategic and
economic support for Exelon 2020. As shown in our analysis on pages
To Exelon, the question facing the United States is not whether it
8 and 10, EPA regulations could help wholesale market participants in
should reduce air pollution and carbon emissions, but how to do so at
the PJM region significantly reduce CO2 and other emissions over the
the lowest possible cost. Our Supply Curve is significant for the entire
next 10 years at a real cost lower than the inflation-adjusted price paid
electric industry and emerging national energy policy.
for power in 2008.
• Extrapolating our results to the industry as a whole tells us that a
With Exelon 2020 as our guide, we will continue to work in Washington
major priority should be to replace older, inefficient, pollutant- and
and our state capitols for an economically rational approach to
carbon-intensive coal plants with a combination of cost-effective
ensuring clean, reliable and secure power at the lowest possible cost.
solutions. These include reducing consumption through energy
efficiency and demand response, and adding capacity through the
lowest-cost generation alternatives. Yours sincerely,
• New natural gas discoveries promise a more abundant supply of this
critical low-carbon fuel, fundamentally challenging the economics
of other resources including renewables, new nuclear, and coal with
carbon sequestration. While fuel diversification remains important
and continued research and development-scale investment into these
other technologies remains vital, the cheapest way of meeting new John W. Rowe
demand for electricity – when that new demand materializes – is Chairman and CEO
currently natural gas combined-cycle and peaking units.
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Uncertainty and change
3
Science of climate change
Climate change is real. Two years ago, acceptance of the scientific &IGURE
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foundation behind climate change seemed settled. However, errors and
arrogance by a few members of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental !NNUAL -EAN
Panel on Climate Change have caused some to broadly indict the
scientific consensus. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS), our
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nation’s preeminent scientific research organization, has done
extensive work to confirm that the climate is changing and that
human activity is a major contributor.
In May 2010 the NAS issued a series of new reports that represents
that body’s most comprehensive study of climate change to date. NAS
confirms that climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human
activities, and poses significant risks for – and in some cases is already
affecting – a broad range of human and natural systems.
The NAS finds that “global warming is closely associated with a broad
spectrum of other climate changes, such as increases in the frequency 3OURCE .!3! 'ODDARD )NSTITUTE FOR 3PACE 3TUDIES
of intense rainfall, decrease in snow cover and sea ice, more frequent
and intense heat waves, rising sea levels and widespread ocean
acidification.” Observations of the earth’s surface temperature over
the past 100 years as compiled from diverse sources demonstrate
that the most significant changes have taken place in the most recent
decades (see figure 1). Not all effects of climate change on the earth’s
processes are fully understood or captured in current climate models. In
aggregate, the effects could contribute to increasing the consequences
of climate change. The NAS concludes that the longer the nation waits
to address the climate change challenges, the more expensive it will be.
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Updating our Supply Curve analysis
We have prepared our Supply Curve of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) The 2010 Exelon Supply Curve (see figure 2, page 6) reinforces the
Abatement Opportunities this year for the third time. The Supply Curve conclusions we derived from previous versions. On the left side of the
is a snapshot of the relative economic merit of alternatives to abate curve (-$50 to $0 per metric ton), we see that the customer energy
greenhouse gases in the electricity sector. Many factors that drive the efficiency programs at ComEd and PECO and Exelon Generation’s
Supply Curve have changed since we first released it in 2008, when nuclear uprates remain clear winners from both environmental and
prices for electricity were climbing quickly as a result of rising natural economic perspectives. They have weathered downward changes in
gas prices and high expectations for future electricity demand. Today, power prices precisely because they are low-cost solutions.
we see demand for electricity slowly recovering from the recession One notable addition to the far left (i.e., most economic) side of the
and natural gas prices holding at levels well below their historic highs curve is the retirement of our coal units at Eddystone and Cromby, our
in 2008. As a result, this year’s Supply Curve is based on two primary two Eisenhower-era generating facilities in Pennsylvania. Continued
assumptions: operation of the units is not economically justified in light of expected
• Electricity demand grows at an average of 0.6 percent per year, well power prices, even before considering a price on carbon. We address
below historical averages, reflecting expected installations of energy the broader issues around coal retirements later in this report.
efficiency and smart grid measures in the coming years. Moving to the middle of the curve ($0 to $50 per metric ton), new
• Natural gas prices average $7 per mmbtu (in 2016 dollars), reflecting natural gas combined-cycle plants continue to be the most economic
the economic impact of the country’s vast shale gas resources. new-build option. This position has been accentuated as natural
gas prices have fallen. However, with demand low and many power
markets still saturated with generating capacity, new plants are simply
Supply Curve primer not needed. Demand growth or some other catalyst will be necessary
to trigger the need for new generation.
The Supply Curve is an economic ordering of potential GHG
abatement projects that Exelon could feasibly undertake between Farther right on the curve ($75 per metric ton and above), we see many
now and 2020. It is based on a simple question: what carbon of the supply options discussed by policymakers and the media – wind,
price would make each of these projects break-even propositions? new nuclear, solar and coal with carbon capture and sequestration
Projects with “negative” carbon prices are more than break-even (CCS). While these options may cost-effectively mitigate the impacts
without a carbon price; those that are “positive” require such a of climate change over the long term, they are expensive ways to
price signal in order for us (and probably others) to undertake the abate GHG emissions today. The required carbon prices for these
project on an economic basis. options have risen since last year due to the weakening fundamentals
described above. One exception is solar, which we expect to experience
significant cost reductions in coming years, even as it is currently one
of the highest-cost ways to abate GHG emissions.
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6
Many of these “new build” options appear expensive because Between now and 2015, a variety of EPA rules and regulations
expectations of future power prices have fallen since 2008. But another impacting coal-fired plants will take effect:
factor is playing a major role in preventing the orderly, economic • The Clean Air Transport Rule (CATR), regulating sulfur dioxide and
clean-up of the country’s power generation: our industry is generally nitrogen oxide emissions and requiring pollution control retrofits. The
oversupplied with generation capacity. As a result, new low-carbon rule was proposed in July 2010.
investments must compete with existing power plants whose costs
have already been “sunk.” • The revised Clean Air Act regulations defining maximum achievable
control technology (MACT) for HAPs, including mercury, other metals
Older, inefficient, high-emitting coal plants are the main source of and acid gases and requiring installation of emissions control
this overcapacity. These plants would face pressure to retire in a technologies. The rule is expected in spring 2011.
world with a price on carbon, but this solution may not come soon.
Instead, it appears increasingly likely that the EPA will force some of • A proposed Coal Combustion Residuals rule that will impose new
these plants out of service through new regulations of sulfur dioxide, standards and controls on coal ash was published in June 2010.
nitrogen oxide, hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) like mercury, and coal • The EPA also continues to have the authority to regulate greenhouse
combustion byproducts, among other pollutants. gases, including CO2, under the Clean Air Act.
Taking a broader view – the PJM Cost Curve We have made assumptions around the costs coal generators will face
To understand the impact of EPA’s actions, we expanded our analysis due to forthcoming EPA rules and regulations, including the impact
beyond Exelon’s options and took a broader look at how the industry of the proposed CATR and the expected MACT standard to control
may respond. We also examined the options on a cost-per-megawatt- emissions of HAPs.
hour basis rather than on a carbon price basis. The result of these
efforts is the PJM Cost Curve (see figure 3, page 8). It represents the
levelized cost of energy (in 2016 dollars per megawatt hour and
adjusted for the market value of the generation’s production profile)
of a variety of options available to all market participants to clean the
generation supply in the PJM Interconnection. PJM serves 13 states and
the District of Columbia, a region that includes more than 51 million
people. It is the primary regional wholesale power market in which
Exelon operates.
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