by
Christian Jakobsons
(2001/2002)
Dissertation Supervisor:
capital. Concerns are now being raised in the asset management industry, which is
questioning whether hedge funds may become the next bubble. The intention of this
management. This paper investigates the hypothesis that hedge funds produce
and actual market conditions. This evaluates if fundamentals reflect the current
This paper presents tangible evidence of hedge funds being a new paradigm
compared to other investment classes, and yield significant value when incorporated
fund bubble is fallacious. Capital allocated into hedge funds far undermines what is
economic logic.
2
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This dissertation would not have been possible without the help, support and inspiration from
• I would like to thank my close friend Nadine Vohrer for her accomplished
guidance.
• Furthermore, I would like to thank Mag. Thomas Klatzer and Mag. Roland
Klemm, Merrill Lynch Private Banking, for the opportunity to work for their
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Introduction .......................................................................................... 6
2. Hedge Funds.........................................................................................11
3. Performance .........................................................................................22
6. Conclusion ...........................................................................................56
References ......................................................................................................58
4
LıST OF FıGURES
2.1 Universe of investment opportunities......................................................16
5.6 Main problems cited by European institutions regarding hedge funds .....49
LıST OF TABLES
2.1 Definitions and statements.....................................................................13
5
1. ıNTRODUCTıON
Hedge funds as a type of investment vehicle date back to 1949. They can be
Although grouped under the name “hedge funds”, the investment funds are an
framework, which sanctions the diversity. The investment strategies employed differ
greatly and the managers can utilize the full spectrum of financial instruments,
including leverage.
Academics have only recently begun to pay attention to hedge funds. Hedge
funds address new challenges to financial theory; they systematically beat markets
and traditional funds from a return-volatility criterion, but academics are perplexed
by how and why. This is commonly referred to as the “hedge fund puzzle”. Hedge
funds fascinate by having superior risk-return yields, but frighten by their lack of
is still extremely limited. Thus, hedge funds are often misunderstood, and numerous
misconceptions about their nature persist, although significant investments are now
placed in them.
the 1990s. The 1990s observed a real boom in assets allocated into hedge fund was
observed, especially in the US. In the late 1990s and post millennium this trend
became more prevalent in Europe, whilst still continuing and escalating in the
international investment management market. Hedge funds have existed for over
half a century but have only recently attracted significant capital. Dramatic capital
inflows have been registered with investment houses and managers. Hedge fund
start-ups are now even commonly closing their funds to new investors prior to the
6
The analysis will present core drivers behind the evolution, and evaluate if
the growth is natural or bubble-theory based. Furthermore, the core drivers are
one of two main elements in the analysis. The other main element is an examination
into the evolution of the hedge fund industry. When under combined scrutiny, they
The current hedge fund boom could be a short-lived trend, but can also be a
assistance to the many asset managers currently considering allocating assets into
hedge funds. In the European market-place institutional investors are still sceptical
towards hedge funds; although most of them are increasingly considering investing
hedge funds, and the majority opt to delay their hedge fund investments because of
capital into hedge funds to be a bubble. Authors, experts and analyst predict with
rising confidence that the bubble will burst in the near future2. An examination of
the current hedge fund boom and the underlying reasons, will answer if the
1
From presentation by Bruce Weatherill, Price Waterhouse Coopers, “Examining the findings of the
2000/2001 Private Banking Survey: Private Banking and its Changing Approach to Alternative
Investments”, 2nd Annual Euromoney European Hedge Funds Conference 2001.
2
Examples: “Hedge Funds – The latest bubble?”, The Economist, September 1st, 2001, “SEC’s Paul
Royce Issues a warning About a Hedge Fund Craze”, Bloomberg News, July 23rd, 2001, “The $500
Billion Hedge Fund Folly”, Forbes, June 8th, 2001, “The Hedge Fund Bubble”, Financial Times, 9th
July, 2001, “Hedge Funds May become the Next Investment Bubble” , Bloomberg News, May 30th,
2001. Drawn from INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Hedge Funds: Bubble or New Paradigm? The Asset
Management Industry is Leaning Towards Absolute Return Objectives and Risk Management”, UBS
Warburg, London, 2001.
7
1.1 OBJECTıVES AND STRUCTURE OF THE DıSSERTATıON
performance of hedge funds. This will examine if hedge funds are providing
superior risk-adjusted returns, and hence, contest the notion that active
management does not yield rewards. An investigation into the sources of the
returns, and the future perseverance of these sources, will look at whether
3. The third objective is to examine how to invest in hedge funds and make
investment process.
funds.
5. The fifth objective is to assess if hedge funds have the ability to provide
added value to investors, and their ability to do so in the future. This gauges
the probability of the current boom becoming a bubble, and gives insight into
8
1.2 RESEARCH COLLECTıON AND METHODOLOGY
hedge fund universe. The research methods included: collecting information from
articles, journals, books and the Internet. The author also attended a recognized
contributed to the research process, and provided inspiration for the analysis.
Furthermore, the author used practical experience gained from working for Scottish
Value Management, an investment house running a hedge fund, and working for the
there is a very limited base of recognised literature on hedge funds. Secondly, this
literature is very difficult to obtain. Few articles on hedge funds feature in the
popular financial press, and in many instances they can be misleading. Some
specialist press exists, but is priced for the corporate clientele. Papers on hedge
funds are published in journals that are difficult to access for undergraduate
students, as they are specialist journals few universities subscribe to. Books on
hedge funds are extremely hard to come by in university and national library
collections. Only a very limited number exist, and normally they have to be retrieved
number of sites dedicated to hedge funds, but most are password protected and
require individuals to apply for access. Some sites are restricted to investment
professionals, but the majority also permit academic access. Conferences are still
exotic in the context of hedge funds: there are few, and they are exclusive and
expensive. The author did however gain a complementary place, and the information
comprehensively examine the questions set out in this dissertation, was collected
9
1.3 LıMıTATıONS OF THE STUDY
Hedge funds can still be considered mysterious and closed natured. There is
public knowledge and academic efforts in the field. The inherent limitation of the
There are an infinite number of factors that influence the development of the
hedge fund industry, and certain factors must be highlighted. Other developments
in the investment management sector, and in the global markets, might influence
the evolution of hedge funds. These developments are not taken into consideration
with the same detail and comprehensiveness as hedge funds, but are given
reasonable attention.
The conclusions set out in the paper are general, and seek to assist the
average institutional and private investor, bearing in mind that all investment
portfolios are unique, and individual investors have different needs to consider.
Thus, capital allocation into hedge funds should be judged with respect of the
individual portfolio. Investments in individual hedge funds will have very different
context in which this paper considers hedge fund investments. The conclusions
10
2. HEDGE FUNDS
The objective of this section is to, firstly gain a brief insight into the history of
hedge funds and how they have evolved. Secondly, to understand what hedge funds
are and what characterises them, and appreciate the complexity of their nature.
The first hedge fund was set up in 1949 by Alfred W. Jones. By short-selling
stocks in addition to holding long positions, Jones hoped to eliminate part of the
market risk. In doing this he shifted most of his exposure from market timing to
stock picking. Largely through his own common sense, he realised that the risk of
investing in the market was distinct and separate from the risk inherent in investing
in a stock, and could be identified and substantially reduced, even more or less
The fund was the first to use short sales, leverage and incentive fees in
the aggressive strategies employed by well-known global macro funds in the past
three decades4, the fund employed a conservative strategy. The investment vehicles
used were long and short equities, leverage was limited, and central to its
investment strategy was the hedging of market risk, hence the name “hedge fund”.
operated largely in secrecy until then, the article described Jones’ fund and its
superior performance. The fund had outperformed all the US mutual funds of its
time. This sparked a rush into hedge funds, which eventually was offset by the bust
years following the booming late 1960s. Prominent “survivors”, like George Soros
and Michael Steinhart, lead the way in the aftermath. In 1986 another article
3
TEMPLE, Peter, “Hedge Funds: the courtesans of capitalism”, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester,
2001.
4
E.g. LTCM (Long-term capital management), Quantum, Tiger, etc.
11
lead to a renewed interest in hedge funds. In the following years the hedge fund
industry entered a more mature stage, but nonetheless saw an exceptional rise in
Although this is perhaps the best definition of a hedge fund, the nature of
hedge funds is infinitely more complicated. There are great variations in the market
for hedge funds, and perceptions of hedge funds are unclear and mixed.
In contrast to unit trusts, hedge funds are less regulated and constrained in
business activities and investing. This is the core of what distinguishes hedge funds
from traditional investment funds, and is also the main reason they are difficult to
define, clearly understand and monitor. Since hedge funds are private investment
primarily are located offshore, they are often not required to register with market
5
WARWICK, Ben, “Searching for Alpha – The Quest for Exceptional Investment Performance”, John
Wiley and Sons, New York, 2000.
12
funds are by definition not restricted to one asset class or one financial instrument.
Hence, they can go short, use derivatives, currencies and employ leverage.
The term “hedge fund” typically refers to “ any pooled investment vehicle that is
privately organised, administered by professional investment managers, and not
widely available to the public.
(Source: Report of the US President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, 1999, used by IMF in;
“Background Note on the Hedge Fund Industry”, Financial Stability Forum, 2000)
Hedge fund – An absolute return investment fund designed to invest in a wide range
of instruments in order to achieve a high return for a given level of risk. It is usually
based offshore and the manager is reimbursed through an incentive fee.
(Source: CHANDLER, Beverly, “Investing with the Hedge Fund Giants”, 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall
London, 2002.)
Traditionally, hedge funds are run as small financial boutiques and have
therefore enjoyed less internal corporate constraints in investing. Many hedge funds
have exploited this by using a free choice of asset classes, international markets and
trading styles, adapting to current market conditions and using the freedom to their
advantage. They are mostly sold on a private basis and are free from the obligation
to release even the most basic data, e.g. monthly performance, asset size or
13
investment policy. These data are often disclosed exclusively to existing investors
and therefore poses severe limits to transparency, not only for the individual fund,
but also for the industry as a whole, complicating studies of the hedge fund
universe.
is often high, and infrequent subscription and redemption possibilities with long
notification periods have become an industry norm. Investors in hedge funds are
primarily high net worth individuals, but institutional investors are increasingly
allocating assets in hedge fund. To promote the funds credibility the manager
usually also allocates a high proportion of his own capital into the hedge fund.
Two other features are also very important characteristics of hedge funds,
is often applied to this incentive fee, and it can be benchmarked to an index such as
the UK or US treasury rate, e.g. hurdle rate7. Secondly, hedge funds are marketed as
related to a benchmark or reference index. Hedge fund indices have now been
created, but are still not seen as a benchmark for individual fund performance since
The hedge fund industry has constantly recruited arguably some of the best
and most talented investment managers in the business8. They are drawn by the
substantial rewards hedge funds can offer through performance incentive fees and
are superior risk related returns compared with unit trusts and equity indexes.
6
Commonly management fee rates are between 1% and 1.5%, and 15-25 % for the performance fee.
According to the TASS database, 64 % of single manager hedge funds charge performance fee of 20%
or more. Multi manager fund of funds usually charge less, and 51% of the multi manager funds in the
same database charge 10% or less.
7
According to Van Hedge Fund Advisors, 64 % of hedge funds have a high water mark and 17% have
a hurdle rate.
8
TEMPLE, Peter, “Hedge Funds: the courtesans of capitalism”, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester,
2001.
14
Hedge funds originated in the US, and have existed in the European market
since the 1970s. European market professionals do however employ the term hedge
alternative investments.
US Definition
In the US hedge funds include any funds that are not conventional
funds and which use a strategy or a set of strategies other than investing
long in bonds, equities and money markets. In its most rigorous
definition, a hedge fund would involve the services of a prime broker
which would typically provide trading and custody services to the fund,
and would also retain the right to utilize or re-hypothecate the assets of
the fund for its own trading purposes.
European Definition
developments. In Europe it is now the norm for new hedge fund start-ups to employ
the driving forces behind this development. The hedge fund industry is international
between European and US hedge funds, and the rapid reforms currently observed in
the European markets further complicate this matter. Academics rarely emphasize
that the European market is at an early stage of development compared to the US.
15
2.3 HEDGE FUNDS ıN THE ıNVESTMENT UNıVERSE
increasing share of assets, but hedge funds have arguably seen a more dramatic
Investment
Universe
PRIVATE
EQUITY/DEBT
-VENTURE COMMODITIES HEDGE STOCKS BONDS
CAPITAL FUNDS
-REAL ESTATE
objectives. Absolute return strategies charge high fees and performance is, in theory
and to some extent in practice, determined by manager skill. At the other extreme
are index funds, where margins are low and performance is attributed to the
market11.
the overall volatility as well as offer opportunities for capital appreciation. Hedge
9
“What do you want from a prime broker?”, Cover Story, Hedge Funds Review, January 2001.
10
RAMA, Rao & SZILAGYI, Jerry G, “The Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry: The Case
for Growth and Restructuring”, RR Capital Management and KPMG, New York, 1998.
11
INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Hedge Funds: Bubble or New Paradigm? The Asset Management
Industry is Leaning Towards Absolute Return Objectives and Risk Management”, UBS Warburg,
London, 2001.
16
funds generally have a low correlation with traditional investments, like stocks and
bonds12. Studies on the performance of hedge funds have also shown that hedge
funds produce above average returns, alpha13. Hence, hedge funds can diversify a
The recent high volatility and decreasing returns in traditional investments have
further fuelled the interest for alternative investments. Yet investment management
participants in the industry still seem to be misinformed about the most basic facts
on hedge funds, and there is a general lack of knowledge and understanding of the
Appendix A. An analysis of how one might distinguish the strategies will best explain
the rationale behind classification, and provide reasoning for the classification
12
ZASK, Erza, “Hedge Funds: “An Industry Overview”, Journal of Alternative Investments, Winter
2000.
13
LIANG, Bing, “On the Performance of Hedge Funds”, Weatherhead School of Management, 1999.
14
Merrill Lynch International Private Banking/Euromoney, 2nd Annual European Hedge Funds
Conference 2001.
15
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
17
essential issue in the asset allocation process. The four dimensions of hedge fund
classification according to the TASS model are; 1) Asset Class, 2) Investment Bias, 3)
Trading Style, 4) Geographical Focus. These features are key factors in describing a
miss-pricing and market inefficiencies, the manager seeks to capitalise gains while
with markets, and involve the manager timing the market and betting on
movements.
too simple. Strategies also vary considerably within these boundaries and a
particular strategy can also be played differently to deliver varied levels of market
correlation. In spite of this most investors and hedge fund practitioners would argue
that hedge funds have their place in a portfolio to provide returns that have a low
relationship in a portfolio context. Hedge funds in general yield returns that have a
low correlation with the market, but non-directional strategies can be perceived as
less aggressive, and hence, more prudent strategies. Returns are normally more
stable and have a very low correlation to the market. Directional strategies are of a
more opportunistic nature; returns are more varied and can be sensational. To
better to define broader categories, which are employed in this paper. Hedge fund
managers will often use their own interpretations, subdividing strategies further
18
than is presented in this paper. The analysis is partially based on Deutsche Bank’s
interpretation of the hedge fund universe (Fothergill, 2000), but will also include
Appendix A.
Equity Hedge – the strategy employs bottom-up research and seeks to take
short positions. Managers can be net long or short, value or growth, small or
large cap and focus on different regions and sectors. The most common
in essence the strategies are very similar but short positions are taken more
also called relative value. The manager tries to generate excess returns while
this general strategy. The most widely used is Equity Market Neutral. These
funds take simultaneously long and short positions for the same amount
making their net market exposure zero. In a simple form the strategy would
involve a long position and a short position in two companies in the same
sector within the same region, shorting the equity less likely perform. The
manager seeks to benefit from both alphas created while remaining beta
19
strategies based on arbitrage, namely; Convertible Arbitrage, Fixed Income
Index Arbitrage.
instruments, markets, sectors and trading styles are used, and the funds are
often highly leveraged. Being the most directional of strategies, it can also be
one of the riskiest, but returns are not necessarily strongly correlated with
the market. Global Macro funds were made famous by high profile investors
typically would take a long position in the target and simultaneously short
the acquirer in an M&A deal. This strategy is called Merger Arbitrage, and
constitutes that the principle risk factor becomes the deal rather than the
positions in equity and put derivatives products employ the short selling
strategy. They always have a short bias greater than zero, and seek to benefit
20
1990s bull market the short sellers almost disappeared, but have lately once
and less risk of default. However, due diligence, transparency and easier
access comes at a cost, and additional layers of fees increase the cost of
investing.
and traditional active management16, the strategies are complex and can be difficult
presented in figure 3.217. Reports concerning the capital allocation into the various
strategies provide inconsistent evidence, but equity hedge being the broadest of
assets. Fund of funds have also developed into a popular way of investing into the
16
Index investments are investments in funds that try to replicate the market portfolio. This technique
is based on the theory of efficient markets, stating that no investors can beat the market without access
to superior information. Consequently, indexing should provide the best risk adjusted return.
Replicating an index is a fairly simple investment task, and professionals use the index as a benchmark
of performance. Research has shown that it is virtually impossible to beat the market on a consistent
basis, arguably the majority of traditional fund managers that claim to carry out active management
therefore employ indexing to a certain extent, hence “closet indexing” (Colin McLean, MD, SVM)
17
See part 3.2.1.
21
3. PERFORMANCE
funds. This section reviews the current literature on the performance of hedge
funds, with the underlying objective of examining if the current booming inflow of
With the industry in some respects still in its infancy and under no
no simple task. Fortunately, many funds release monthly data to attract new
investors and accommodate existing ones. The most respected databases are HFR
(1400 funds)18, TASS (2200 funds)19, and MAR/Hedge (1500 funds)20. These
Nevertheless, they replicate the hedge fund universe to the extent that they can be
the basis for empirical studies on performance, and are used to calculate hedge fund
indices21.
like the S&P and FTSE, and more innovative benchmarks; mutual fund performance
and both risk and return must be examined when comparing the performance of
hedge funds and other investment vehicles. The Sharpe ratio: (Return-risk free
18
Hedge Fund Research currently monitors approx. 4000 funds, the database available by subscription
covers only 1400.
19
TASS/Tremont database in co-operation with Credit Suisse First Boston.
20
MAR/Hedge sold database operations to Zurich Capital Markets on March 22, 2001.
21
AMIN, Gaurav S & KAT, Harry M, “Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000: Do the Money
Machines Really Add Value?”, University of Reading, 2001.
22
rate)/Standard Deviation, is the most commonly used measure for this relationship,
measurements in evaluating return and risk, and figure 3.1 presents the most
commonly employed.
• Leverage
• Net exposure
• Coefficient of correlation
Sharpe Ratio (P.a. historic return – risk free rate) / p.a. standard deviation
Semi Sharpe Ratio (P.a. historic return – risk free rate) / p.a. semi deviation
Other, less frequently used risk-adjusted ratios include the Sortino ratio,
22
CHANDLER, Beverly, “Investing with the Hedge Fund Giants”, 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall London,
2002.
23
Nonetheless, the asset management industry still has difficulties with finding
adequate risk adjusted performance measures. The Sharpe ratio should theoretically
adjusted, but the ratio is based on assumptions; normal distribution of returns and
volatility of past returns. These risks are very difficult to measure and include; gap
and liquidity risk, market-to-market risk, human risk, change of strategy risk, and
size risk. Traditional investments may be exposed to some of these risks, but they
supplying information data to the databases, but hedge funds employ dynamic
informative at this early stage. Researchers have not yet completely clarified many
issues: What drives hedge fund returns? (e.g. What are their risk exposures?) Are
these exposures stable over time? How do we measure hedge fund performance? Is
there a reliable benchmark model? Do hedge fund managers have skills that are
23
Ineichen, Alexander, Head of Derivatives Research, UBS Warburg. From presentation: “New
developments in Hedge Fund Research”, given at Euromoney 2nd Annual Hedge Fund Conference,
London, October, 2001.
24
How can biases in databases be accounted for? Nonetheless, a comprehensive
returns academics are arguing towards conclusions that are wide ranging and
The outright performance of hedge funds has been under great scrutiny by
academics. Empirical research has resolutely concluded that hedge funds do provide
superior risk-adjusted returns to the S&P and FTSE indices24. Table 3.1 presents a
Marhedge Fund of
Performance Comparison S&P 500
Funds Median
Total Return 246.50% 221.80%
Compound Annualised Return 11.41% 10.70%
Annualised Standard Deviation 14.27% 4.61%
Sharpe Ratio 0.45 1.24
Reward to Risk Ratio 0.48 1.52
Profit Factor 1.70 5.79
Average Monthly Return 0.99% 0.86%
Best Month 11.16% 4.50%
% of (+) Months 64.59% 81.88%
Average (+) Months 3.38% 1.28%
Average (-) Months -3.36% -1.03%
Annualised Standard Deviation 9.56% 4.58%
Maximum Drawdown (Peak to Valley) 23.55% 7.04%
Average 3 Largest Drawdowns -18.32% -4.79%
(For period 1990 – June 2001. Data sources: Bloomberg and Zurich Capital Markets, 2001,
reproduced from www.marhedge.com)
24
RAMA, Rao & SZILAGYI, Jerry G, “The Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry: The Case
for Growth and Restructuring”, RR Capital Management and KPMG, New York, 1998. Studies
included: Hennesee (1994), Brown and Goetzman (1995), Fung and Hsieh (1997), Van (1996), and
Scholl (1996)
25
A recognised study by Cottier25 found that single manager hedge funds
posted returns of 17.86% p.a. with a volatility of 9.81%. Hedge funds outperformed
and traditional investments on both return and risk adjusted performance during
the sample period. The study further showed that infrequent redemption
Figure 3.2 shows how the performance of a fund of funds index, and the
mutual fund returns. Hedge funds clearly produce superior risk-adjusted returns.
This is amplified in a fund of funds context, which have bond levels of risk, whist
25
EACM HF index
20
Relative Value
15 Event Driven
Returns %
Equity Hedge
10 Global Macro
Short Sellers
5 Bonds
S&P Composite
0
Mutual Funds
0 5 10 15 20 25
-5
Volatility (%/Std. Dev.)
(Source: From data presented in; FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE, Carolyn, “Funds of Hedge
Funds: An Introduction to Multi-manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London, 2000. EACM 100
index is a arbitrary constructed index compromising different strategies to resemble a fund of
funds.)
25
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
26
Liang’s27 study finds abnormal returns for 7 out of 16 hedge fund strategies
with out-performance ranging from 7.68% to 15.12% p.a. Whilst he does not find
significant out-performance for the remaining strategies, the average hedge fund
offers higher Sharpe ratios and better manager skills than mutual funds, and
consequently out-performs. The study furthermore notes that fund size and lockup
periods are positively related to performance, and that fund age is negatively
He also concludes that hedge funds have relatively low correlation with
traditional asset classes, arguing that hedge funds follow dynamic trading strategies
rather than buy-hold strategies, conforming to the pioneering work by Fung and
Hsieh28 that concluded that dynamic trading creates option like return payoffs
Agarwal and Naik29. Liang concludes that the abnormal performance by hedge funds
Agarwal and Naik31 find significant positive alphas for 10 out of 10 different
hedge fund strategy indices, ranging from 6.36% to 15% p.a. In a subsequent paper
they find abnormal returns for 7 of 10 strategies32. These studies were not corrected
for any biases, but they examined multi period persistence of returns. The first
study found some degree of persistence, but argues that this is rather due to losers
remaining losers more than winners remaining winners. The second study further
examined this relationship, and found that persistence exists in the short term, but
26
There was no convincing evidence that high manager investment in own fund, offshore domicile,
high minimum investment, nor size or age of fund, had any positive effect on performance.
27
LIANG, Bing, “On the Performance of Hedge Funds”, Weatherhead School of Management, 1999.
Financial Analysts Journal, 1999, Vol. 55, No. 4.
28
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies;
The Case for Hedge Funds”, The Review of Financial Studies, 1997a, Vol. 10, No. 2.
29
AGERWAL, Vikas & NAIK, Narayan Y, “Performance Evaluation of Hedge Funds with Option-
based and Buy-and Hold Strategies”, Working Paper, August 2000.
30
See section 3.2.2 for explanation of the survivorship bias.
31
AGERWAL, Vikas & NAIK, Narayan Y, “On taking the Alternative Route: Risk, Reward, Style and
Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds”, Journal of Alternative Investments, 2000a, Vol. 2, No. 4.
32
AGERWAL, Vikas & NAIK, Narayan Y, “Multi Period Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds”,
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000b, Vol. 35, No. 3.
27
decreases in the long term. It does not seem to be related to hedge fund strategies,
12.96% to 28.56% p.a. for a selection of investment strategies. The study corrected
for survivorship bias and instant history bias, but questions that it may subsist a
incentive fees, management fees, size or age of fund. They find that only high
incentive fees have a positive relation to performance. In another study they examine
hedge fund and commodity fund performance in bull and bear markets34. They find
that commodity funds are less correlated to the market than the average hedge
fund. Moreover, hedge funds are found not to be negatively correlated in bear
markets, but do significantly beat the market. In bull markets, hedge funds are less
correlated, and returns far exceed the market and the performance of commodity
funds.
There are no recognised studies that do not find hedge funds to significantly
risk-adjusted basis. However, due to the ambiguity of the data employed, some
academics have questioned the studies. The widely acknowledged conclusion is that
hedge funds do generate alpha by achieving superior returns without being exposed
Biases are a central issue in hedge fund research. Databases are not
representative of the whole hedge fund population, and therefore biases can exist.
33
CAGLAYAN, Mustafa O & EDWARDS, Franklin R, “Hedge Fund Performance and Manager
Skill”, Working Paper, JPMorgan Chase Securities & Colombia University, May 2001.
34
CAGLAYAN, Mustafa O & EDWARDS, Franklin R, “Hedge Fund and commodity Fund
Investment Styles in Bull and Bear Markets”, Working Paper, City University of New York &
Colombia University, 2000.
28
Fund and Hsieh35 show that the construction of hedge fund indices or portfolios
may face four potential sources of biases; survivorship bias, instant history bias,
selection bias, and multi-sampling bias. They provide estimations for these using
Survivorship bias. The databases only provide information on funds that are
currently operational. The exclusion of dead funds when computing the returns of a
investor who would have invested in all of the funds available at the beginning of the
period will therefore not reflect the true return. Fung and Hsieh estimate
survivorship bias to be 3% p.a. for hedge funds. Liang36 estimates the bias to be 2%,
noting that poor performance is the main reason for a funds disappearance. Some
performance studies have incorporated this bias, and future studies should
Selection bias. As explained above, not all hedge funds report data to the
vendors, and it remains the manager’s choice to do so. Consequently, the database
is not representative of the whole population. On the one side it is expected that
hedge fund managers with good performance would want to be in the database,
whilst on the other hand they might have reached their critical size37 and do not
need to attract new investors. Fung and Hsieh estimate that these two opposite
Instant history basis (or back filling bias). Before reporting to a vendor a fund
manager undergoes an incubation period in which they trade with their own money,
in order to back-fill the database with historical returns. Managers find it easier to
market themselves with good performance and may be induced to cheat by reporting
better performance during the incubation period. Estimates of this bias by Fung and
35
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Performance Characteristics of Hedge Fund and CTA
Funds: Natural Versus Spurious Biases”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000, Vol.
10, No. 3.
36
LIANG, Bing, “Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead”, Weatherhead School of Management,
Forthcoming Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Current Version 2000.
37
Hedge funds normally close for new investors at a certain asset volume under management.
29
Hsieh were calculated by computing the difference between returns, excluding and
including incubation period. The bias was found to be 1.4% p.a. for hedge funds.
This bias might be related to the superior performance of younger funds argued by
Howell39.
Multi period sampling bias. A study of hedge fund performance over the long-
term, might discard the shorter time-series hedge fund returns commonly have, and
introduce possible biases. Fung and Hsieh estimate that this bias is very small, if it
exists. It does however point out that empirical long-term performance studies on
Although these biases exist, performance studies on hedge funds can not be
disregarded; they show abnormal returns for hedge funds even when
accommodating for biases. There are ambiguity issues related to the individual
studies, but the general assumption is clear. Academics have now largely moved on
and might induce academics to rethink the notion of risk, market player rationality
reliably explain the risk/return relationship seen in hedge funds, but it has been
argued that hedge funds have return patterns that are more option like than
traditional investments. There has been considerably less research dedicated to the
sources of out-performance than performance itself. The key to the hedge fund
necessarily increase the risk, hence, hedge funds inherently generate risk-adjusted
38
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Performance Characteristics of Hedge Fund and CTA
Funds: Natural Versus Spurious Biases”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2000, Vol.
10, No. 3.
39
HOWELL, Michael, “The Young Ones”, AIMA newsletter, June 2001. (Managing Director,
Crossborder Capital Ltd.)
40
BURKI, Valentin & LARQUE Rudolphe, “Hedge Fund Returns and their Drivers”, Ecole des HCE,
University of Lausanne 2001.
30
alpha41. This would challenge well-established theories of finance. In the absence of
Cottier argues that hedge funds have specific characteristics that can
account for superior performance. These include; low liquidity, incentive fees,
Furthermore, he points out that high fees, premiums, transaction costs and sales
classes, markets, trading styles, instruments, and investment bias, probably is the
that hedge fund managers are superior, and it is a well known fact that investment
banks are loosing their best traders and fund managers to the hedge fund
industry42.
dynamic and flexible trading schemes, and the various financial instruments
employed by hedge funds. He does not emphasise manager skill as a driver, and
academia is divided on this issue. However, the flexibility gained by the hedge fund
structure must be managed, and certainly in the context of risk management. The
hedge fund manger’s role as risk managers is amplified and skill is an important
41
SCHNEEWIES, Thomas, “Alpha, Alpha, Whose got the Alpha?”, Working Paper, Isenberg School
of Management & University of Massachusetts, 1999. He argues that the term alpha is used in two
circumstances by industry professionals; 1) As the return over a specified index benchmark, 2) As the
risk adjusted out-performance.
42
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
43
INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Hedge Funds: Bubble or New Paradigm? The Asset Management
Industry is Leaning Towards Absolute Return Objectives and Risk Management”, UBS Warburg,
London, 2001.
31
A study by Tremont and its subsidiary, TASS investment research presented
a comprehensive outline of “why hedge funds make money”, e.g. their source of
superior performance44. While the hedge fund structure is relatively new, the
investment activities conducted within hedge funds are not. Historically, large
financial institutions were the only organisations with the infrastructure to carry out
the strategies, and the proprietary desk was very much at the top of the career
ladder for a trader. These operations in investment banks can be highly profitable,
but also very risky. Hedge funds are drawing the top talent from proprietary desks,
and the banks are developing more towards being providers of instruments and
leverage, itself a profitable activity and less risky than proprietary trading.
this profitable activity to hedge funds. Some of the most talented individuals have
left the investment banks to started their own funds. Financial institutions have for
decades been granted “unfair” trading advantage that arguably give inherent return
benefits. They now represent a component of the inherent return in hedge funds.
Hedge funds mainly invest in highly specialised areas which require expertise
traditional actively managed fund, which may charge 60 to 100 basis points, make it
economically possible for the funds to develop some type of investment edge45. This
specialist edge can be exploited, but this does not mean that all specialists are
outlined above can be an influential criterion for out-performance46. The relative size
44
TREMONT PARTNERS & TASS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, “The Case for Hedge Funds”,
London & New York, 2000.
45
HARMSTONE, Andrew R, “Alpha transfer: Optimising the Benefit of Active Management”,
Lehman Brothers Inc, London, 2000.
46
ZASK, Erza, “Hedge Funds: “An Industry Overview”, Journal of Alternative Investments, Winter
2000.
32
small or large; e.g. a small fund is able to capture small market movements in a
specialist market, whereas a large fund may get exceptionally low transaction costs
Hedge funds are among investment banks’ most profitable clients, and
therefore usually benefit from superior service to other clients. The study further
argues that hedge funds make money in areas where “money is left on the table”,
when other participants can’t or chose not to trade, or must be on the other side of
the transaction. The inherent return has been transferred from investment banks to
hedge funds, while investment banks more often chose to be the providers rather
established industry pedigrees have the credibility to raise initial assets and only
managers who continue to deliver compelling net returns will keep or receive more
capital. Managers are more personally involved in the business, both on a financial
and emotional scale, creating a positive agency effect. This further amplifies the
network is not predicted to change in any way that will infringe on hedge funds’
ability to trade freely48. However, there is some concern that the performance of
hedge funds might suffer in the light of increased asset allocation. Most industry
professionals argue that proprietary trading and hedge fund management requires
special skills, and point out that there are a limited number of people in the
47
TREMONT PARTNERS & TASS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, “The Case for Hedge Funds”,
London & New York, 2000.
48
WARWICK, Ben, “Searching for Alpha – The Quest for Exceptional Investment Performance”, John
Wiley and Sons, New York, 2000.
33
business with adequate skills to succeed in this competitive environment49. If this
proves to be correct it might damage overall performance and increase the risk in
investing.
However, positive manager selection should cancel out this effect. The
financial rewards of hedge fund management are substantial and might induce more
hedge fund start-ups than needed, but solid industry credibility is a requirement by
investors and hedge funds will continue to recruit only the best and brightest. There
from different time periods throughout the expansion of the hedge fund industry
have thus far not shown declining profits, and out-performance is still very much
prevalent. It is obvious that there is not an infinite capacity for hedge funds in the
opportunities aplenty to support the higher fees charged by hedge funds because
the supply of these inefficiencies51. Unilever’s successful case against Merrill Lynch
asset management has sent shock waves through the investment management
community, and most actively managed funds will now be required to follow the
index more stringently than before52. Thus, creating further market inefficiencies
49
ZASK, Erza, “Hedge Funds: “An Industry Overview”, Journal of Alternative Investments, Winter
2000.
50
MITCHELL, Mark & PULVINO, Todd & STAFFORD, Erik, “Limited Arbitrage in Equity
Markets”, Harvard University and Northwestern University, Forthcoming Journal of Finance April
2002.
51
MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER, “Why Hedge Funds Make Sense”, New York, 2000.
52
Actively managed institutional investment funds are often bound by contract to perform better or
equal to the index, this means they rather than truly actively managing their funds have to employ
“closet-indexing”.
34
Should there be a future decline in the profitability of hedge funds it will not
efficiency of hedge fund investments, and will also review some of the important
practical issues in hedge fund investment. Essentially, the analysis will stipulate
how an investor can best capture the performance advantages of hedge funds
established in part 3.
35
4. ıNVESTıNG ıN HEDGE FUNDS
funds are rarely used as a stand-alone investment. Moving on from the previous
chapter, this chapter examines how hedge funds can best be used in a portfolio.
Some academic research on the efficient level of hedge fund investment has been
published. This will be used in companion with industry research and opinions, to
evaluate how to best utilize and capture the performance patterns shown by hedge
funds. Alternatives to hedge funds in a portfolio will be examined, and this will be of
further assistance when evaluating the future of the hedge fund industry.
fund would most certainly not be efficient. Even a portfolio of hedge funds would
probably not be the optimal investment, unless it was mixed with other types of
advisable in practice. As a result, the real risk and return benefits of a particular
hedge fund has less to do with its own stand-alone performance than how it
the hedge fund industry is their willingness to bear the higher risks associated with
portfolio of hedge funds would, in theory, be the best exposure to hedge funds, and
academics and professional asset managers consent in this matter. This requires
the investor to carry out thorough and costly due diligence, and the capital
Asset managers have found that a portfolio of no more than 20 funds can replicate a
36
hedge fund index53. Fung and Hsieh54 even argue that fund of funds should be used
for measuring hedge fund performance. This does however add another layer of fees
on the investor, and Amin and Kat55 find an efficiency loss of 5.17% p.a. in
comparison with hedge fund indices. The costly due-diligence process an individual
investor would have to undertake would probably cancel out this loss.
use of the investment vehicle for most investors. Hedge funds can function
this matter, and studies suggest that the inclusion of hedge funds has a positive
where hedge fund index performance was included in a typical pension fund index
portfolio.
hedge funds in a portfolio. Other studies support these findings57. The broad range
53
From evidence presented in: MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER, “Why Hedge Funds Make
Sense”, New York, 2000. & FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE, Carolyn, “Funds of Hedge Funds: An
Introduction to Multi-manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London, 2000.
54
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Benchmarks of Hedge Fund performance: Information
Content & Measurement Biases”, Working Paper, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 2000.
55
AMIN, Gaurav S & KAT, Harry M, “Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000: Do the Money
Machines Really Add Value?”, Working Paper, University of Reading, 2001.
56
The table indicates the effect on performance measurements when a standard pension fund chooses
to re-invest 5, 10, 15, and 20% of its capital from its standard portfolio into hedge funds.
57
JEAGER, Lars, “The significance of Transparency and Liquidity for Multi-Manager Portfolios of
alternative investment strategies”, SAIS Group AG, Switzerland, 2001.
37
of investment strategies and sectors covered by a portfolio of hedge funds
Efficient frontier analysis has found the optimal level of hedge fund
carried out by Rzenpceynski, Nenbauer and Henry supports that this level of hedge
fund investment would suit and enhance portfolios of both risk-averse and risk-
tolerant investors60. They further argue that hedge funds can sculpt the risk/return
been unable to do, and that the addition of hedge funds in a portfolio is a prudent
investment strategy.
Schneeweis and Spurgin61 argue that each hedge fund strategy must be
judged on its own unique relationship with an investor’s portfolio. They classify
hedge funds on the impact they have on an individual portfolio; return enhancer,
risk reducers and total diversifier. In doing so they emphasise that individual hedge
fund strategies might have different impacts on an investor’s portfolio, and that they
portfolios of hedge funds can, in turn, be heavily weighted in some strategies to suit
Hedge funds’ main attraction for investors is the weak relationship between
hedge fund returns and other asset classes. This is a relatively new perspective in
the context of hedge funds. For many years high-net-worth individuals primarily
58
JEAGER, Lars, “The significance of Transparency and Liquidity for Multi-Manager Portfolios of
alternative investment strategies”, SAIS Group AG, Switzerland, 2001.
59
AMIN, Gaurav S & KAT, Harry M, “Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000: Do the Money Machines
Really Add Value?”, Working Paper, University of Reading, 2001., FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE,
Carolyn, “Funds of Hedge Funds: An Introduction to Multi-manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London,
2000., & MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER, “Why Hedge Funds Make Sense”, New York, 2000.
60
RZENPCEYNSKI, Mark S & NENBAUER, Franklin & HENRY, John W & Co, “Adding hedge
funds to a traditional asset portfolio: what can we learn?”, AIMA Newsletter, London, 2001.
61
SCHNEEWIES, Thomas & SPURGIN Richard, “Hedge Funds: Portfolio Diversifiers, Return
Enhancers or Both?, Working Paper, Isenberg School of Management & University of Massachusetts,
2000.
38
used hedge funds as opportunistic investment vehicles, sometimes employing them
their approach to hedge funds and discovering them as a very useful and effective
gain these uncorrelated returns by not explicitly tracking a particular index, but
Other investments used for the same purpose include all other alternative
the obvious alternative. These funds have also experienced an enormous increase in
Amin and Kat find that they exhibit a stronger correlation with the traditional
portfolio, produce lesser returns, and provide poorer downside protection62. The
investment process into mutual funds is often simpler, with a lower minimum
investment, shorter lock-up periods, and easier and more frequent redemption.
These features make them more accessible, but the performance lags far behind that
of hedge funds. Cottier’s and other academic research conforms with this63.
Funds with specific asset allocation and geographical focus can be viewed as
alternatives to hedge funds, but would not display the same characteristics as a
and enhance returns. This may include venture capital, growth capital,
Nevertheless, these strategies can also be employed by hedge funds, which have
62
AMIN, Gaurav S & KAT, Harry M, “Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000: Do the Money
Machines Really Add Value?”, Working Paper, University of Reading, 2001.
63
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
64
MARTIN, George, “Making Sense of Hedge Fund Returns: What matters and what doesn’t”,
Forthcoming in Derivatives Strategies, University of Massachusetts, 2000.
39
greater trading flexibility. A hedge fund portfolio would probably be less exposed to
risk and be a more effective way of diversifying, but private equity is a viable
alternative and this investment approach has also attracted an enormous inflow of
capital.
Managed futures are closely related to hedge funds, and exhibit similar risk
and return patterns. Cottier65 examined both hedge funds and managed futures. He
found that single manager futures funds had higher returns than hedge funds, but
Multi manager funds were less volatile than single manager funds for both
compared to single manager funds though. Multi manager hedge funds exhibited
Caglayan and Edwards66 also found that overall hedge funds out-performed
bear markets and they conclude that, on average, commodity funds may provide
better downside protection, but four hedge fund styles; market-neutral, event
driven, global macro, and short selling, also perform well in bear markets. These
strategies, except from short selling, are also top performers in bull markets. They
diversification and downside protection, and that only certain hedge fund strategies
can provide this effectively, but that the strategies mentioned above possess a
diversify investors portfolios that have a significant proportion of their wealth tied up
in few investments. They can be used to create a hedge against stocks, offer
65
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
66
CAGLAYAN, Mustafa O & EDWARDS, Franklin R, “Hedge Fund and commodity Fund
Investment Styles in Bull and Bear Markets”, Working Paper, City University of New York &
Colombia University, 2000.
67
Includes hedging strategies for single stocks, principal protected notes, income generating notes, and
index trackers.
40
protection with access to volatile markets with a pre-defined risk, and also help to
reduce an investor’s tax burden. As an alternative to hedge funds they offer very
different return patterns, but hedge funds can also be incorporated into structured
The problem with transparency throughout the hedge fund industry becomes
even clearer in the context of the individual fund. Hedge fund investment strategies
are proprietary by nature, and the fund managers often resent disclosing
throughout the industry. The near collapse of Long Term Capital Management in
1998 arguably worked as a catalyst for increased disclosure, which in turn has
contributed to the industry’s recent success69. This will be further examined in part
5.
Investing in hedge funds, and to a certain extent fund of funds, remains very
can be exposed to great risk, and the selection process is not an easy task.
Therefore, many investors hire hedge fund consultants or invest through multi-
manager fund vehicles. In any case, the selection of a hedge fund investment vehicle
in hedge funds due to their private structure, and the enormous flexibility in
68
MERRILL LYNCH/CAP GEMINI ERNST & YOUNG, “World Wealth Report 2001”, published
2001 by Merrill Lynch Group International and Cap Gemini Ernst & Young International.
69
McKENZIE, Mark-Anthony, “Growth in the Global Hedge Fund Industry and Due Diligence of
Offshore Hedge Funds”, Cayman Islands Monetary Authority, 2001.
41
investment strategies and trading. An outline of the elements of this process that
(Source: based on COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag
Paul Haupt, Bern, 2000.)
An investment analysis of a fund should not only take into consideration the
likelihood of decline or loss of capital due to human and corporate aspects, but
relationship with the investors existing portfolio. This provides insight into the
42
optimum level of diversification that can be achieved by including hedge funds.
rigorously employed.
frequently and quicker than in other investment funds. Monitoring is important for
every investor, but has been re-introduced with more vigour by institutional
Proactive buy-side risk management can help minimise losses, and this in
turn maximises the returns gained from money-making efforts. These are
newfound respect for the value generating effect they yield70. In hedge fund
and although academic research can present good guidelines, it has an inherent
aspects. The review of the evolution of the hedge fund industry, and associated
issues of interest, represents the second element required to evaluate if the current
70
GIBSON, Lang, “Proactive Buy-Side Risk Management”, Mr. Gibson is a member of Global
Association of Risk Professionals, the paper was published on the Hedgeworld database, 2001.
71
LO, Andrew, W., “Risk Management for Hedge Funds: Introduction and Overview”, Working
Paper, MIT Sloan School of Management & AlphaSimplex Group, US, June 2001.
43
5. THE EVOLUTıON OF THE HEDGE FUND ıNDUSTRY
The hedge fund industry has experienced a dramatic rise in capital under
management in the 1990s. Since 1998, significant developments have been taking
place in the hedge fund industry, attracting further growth in investments. This
section examines the scale of the evolution in the hedge fund industry, the main
drivers and key developments, and outlines future developments that will shape the
industry and influence the role of hedge funds in asset management. This
identifying other factors that might influence an investment decision. The European
fund sector.
requirements, definitive data on the size of the market and number of hedge funds is
not readily available. Hedge fund databases provide estimates though, and by
comparing these, a reasonably accurate picture of the hedge fund industry can be
presented.
600
500
400
$ bn
300
200
100
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
(Source: Mondohedge, Hedge Fund Research and Van Hedge Fund Advisors)
44
In 2002, capital currently under management by hedge funds is estimated to
be between $ 600 and $ 700 billion72. One industry prediction expects these figures
to grow to approximately 1.7 trillion by 200573. The growth in hedge fund capital has
far surpassed the growth in equity markets and assets under investment
TASS/Tremont estimates the total number of hedge funds to exceed 6000 in 200175,
with about 2000 funds created in the year 2000 alone. Hedge Fund Research
presents an overview of the developments in the total number of hedge funds, their
4500
4000
3500
Number of Funds
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
demand for hedge fund products in the asset management industry. Beyond
investment demand though, there are other factors driving the increasing numbers
of new hedge funds; 1) There are few regulatory requirements and low start-up
72
www.hedegworld.com, April 10, 2002.
73
ZASK, Erza, “Hedge Funds: “An Industry Overview”, Journal of Alternative Investments, Winter
2000.
74
RAMA, Rao & SZILAGYI, Jerry G, “The Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry: The Case
for Growth and Restructuring”, RR Capital Management and KPMG, New York, 1998.
75
TREMONT PARTNERS & TASS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, “The Case for Hedge Funds”,
London & New York, 2000.
76
Tass/Tremont, Marhedge, MondoHedge & Deutsche Bank.
45
costs, making barriers to entry trivial. 2) Investment professionals are attracted by
allocate less than 1% of assets into hedge funds80, and high/ultra high net worth
investors allocate approximately 4% of their capital into hedge funds81. When viewed
in the light of the findings in parts 3 and 4, which clearly establishes the
Since the financial crisis of the late 1990s, there has been a significant
expansion in the hedge fund industry, particularly in Europe. Research has shown
that the European hedge funds are at the leading edge of the industry’s growth82.
The European market is still negligible compared to the US market, which has
evolved more rapidly. Sources vary83, but currently the European market is
estimated to constitute only around 5 % of the total hedge fund universe. Earlier
growth in the European market can largely be attributed to fund of funds. The first
fund of funds came from Europe in 1969. In the latter half of the 1990s substantial
77
Hedge fund management yields earnings that are vastly superior to traditional active fund
management; a fund charging 1% of capital committed plus 20% of gross profits p.a., assuming a 5%
trading profit, would earn more than 5 times the fees for traditional active equity products. From:
BARRA ROGERS CASEY, “An Introduction to Hedge Funds”, BARRA Inc., 2001.
78
CHANDLER, Beverly, “Investing with the Hedge Fund Giants”, 2nd Edition, Prentice Hall London,
2002.
79
ARTHUR ANDERSEN, “The Global Hedge Fund Industry: Moving into the New Millennium”, by
Market Practices Group, Financial Markets Practice, Arthur Andersen, November 2001.
80
FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE, Carolyn, “Funds of Hedge Funds: An Introduction to Multi-
manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London, 2000.
81
MERRILL LYNCH/CAP GEMINI ERNST & YOUNG, “World Wealth Report 2001”, published
2001 by Merrill Lynch Group International and Cap Gemini Ernst & Young International.
82
William Dombrowski, Arthur Andersen, 1999, in: FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE, Carolyn,
“Funds of Hedge Funds: An Introduction to Multi-manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London, 2000.
83
Tass/Tremont, MarHedge, Hedge Fund Research.
46
amounts of European capital was invested in single manager start-ups and existing
funds84.
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Growth in the European hedge fund market has been inhibited by the
management markets are further reasons behind the low levels of hedge fund
of the Euro, are important elements in the increased growth prospects for hedge
so in the future86. This will be produce a considerable boost to the European hedge
84
FOTHERGILL, Martin & COKE, Carolyn, “Funds of Hedge Funds: An Introduction to Multi-
manager Funds”, Deutsche Bank, London, 2000.
85
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern,
2000.
86
Ludgate Communications survey of 100 of the leading European Institutions that collectively control
60% of assets under management in Europe, Euro 5,300 billion, 2000.
47
Figure 5.4 Percentage of European Institutions Currently Investing or
80
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
0
a
s
nd
ly
al
ce
K
nd
vi
an
Ita
t
To
an
la
na
rla
m
er
Fr
di
er
he
itz
an
G
Sw
et
Sc
N
portfolio context. Institutional interest in hedge funds will not only increase the
number of investors in hedge funds, but also raise levels of total assets committed.
Medium
Medium
Not Relevant High
High 40%
36%
(Source: From presentation by Bruce Weatherill, Price Waterhouse Coopers, “Examining the
findings of the 2000/2001 Private Banking Survey: Private Banking and its Changing Approach to
Alternative Investments”, 2nd Annual Euromoney European Hedge Funds Conference 2001)
48
Institutional investors’ current reluctance to invest in hedge funds is
40
35
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
0
e
cy
d
es
l
n
e
ity
tro
dg
an
io
ag
en
id
Fe
at
on
le
em
Im
qu
ar
ul
ow
h
C
Li
eg
sp
ig
D
or
k
Kn
H
Po
is
an
of
R
of
Tr
of
ck
La
ck
ck
of
La
La
ck
La
hedge funds in the European market, and ultimately an increase in capital invested.
Since 1998 the hedge fund industry has greatly improved measures for
transparency and risk control, and although this has contributed to growth, it
problems, and financial advisors commonly view them as the best way of investing
parties.
of the European hedge fund sector is the predicted dramatic rise of the European
87
ROSENBAUM, Robert I., “Fund of Funds: The Right Choice for Your Clients’ Allocation to Hedge
Funds”, Investment Management Consultants Association, IMCA, September/October 2000.
49
proportion of capital under management, and represents a very important market
for the hedge fund industry. A report by PWC predicts an increased annual inflow
into EU savings of 200-300 billion euros88. It further argues that this will greatly
affect the investment management sector, attracting many new entrants, including
development. There are large growth prospects driven by solid underlying factors, in
This section outlines the key developments in the hedge fund and investment
management industries that have driven the increased interest and growth in hedge
evaluating the future role of hedge funds in portfolio management. This also gives
insight into whether hedge funds will have continued success irrespective of market
conditions. Not only have hedge funds developed in the last few years, but the asset
management industry as a whole is also undergoing reform. Many of the factors are
other than the obvious performance argument, certain trends have shaped the
The investment technology hedge fund managers use has vastly improved and
become more attainable. Advanced computer systems and software are available at
lower costs, when before they were reserved for large corporate structures.
channelled into hedge funds, and the playing field has consequently been levelled89.
88
PRICE WATERHOUSE COOPERS, “The European Pensions and Savings Revolution – Our Vision
of the Future”, by John Hawksworth, Nicholas Vause, David Pettitt, Jenny Lee, and Travis Baker,
PWC, 2000.
89
TREMONT PARTNERS & TASS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, “The Case for Hedge Funds”,
London & New York, 2000.
50
The essential prime brokerage services are now well developed and offered by most
investment banks.
the cream of asset managers and traders from the financial services sector. This is
by hedge funds. These individuals also bring more credibility to the industry, and
characteristics of hedge funds. Hedge fund managers have generated very attractive
risk-adjusted returns for a long time91, and the industry perception of hedge fund
returns has been clarified. Hedge funds are now viewed to be an increasingly
asset classes they are a valuable addition to investment portfolios. This also yields a
risk management opportunity, contrary to the popular view of hedge funds being very
risky investments.
which existed for over half a century, has only recently been removed92.
understanding of the risk and return opportunities hedge funds offer, and clichés
that have hindered the industry from expanding have been unravelled.
The near collapse of LTCM was a defining moment for hedge funds, which
induced the sector to facilitate for increasingly risk-concerned investors93. This only
caused a temporary outflow of capital from hedge funds, but inevitably brought
90
TEMPLE, Peter, “Hedge Funds: the courtesans of capitalism”, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester,
2001.
91
Performance of hedge funds is comprehensively outlined in Part 3.
92
SCHNEEWIES, Thomas, “Dealing with the Myths of Hedge Fund Investments”, Journal of
Alternative Investments, Winter 1998.
51
not only makes for more efficient use of hedge funds in investment portfolios, but is
also an essential criterion for attracting more of the gigantic institutional investment
market. Although there have been developments in transparency, the industry still
has a long way to go. Fund of funds can bypass some of the problems related to
Current market conditions have made investors realise that the phenomenal
returns seen in the last two decades cannot continue due to decreasing inflation94.
Nevertheless, with a lot of volatility in individual share prices, the hedge fund
approach is also suited to these market conditions. The asset management industry
risk95. Hedge funds are now perceived to be a more powerful tool in generating
of risk. There has been a shift in focus from expected return to risk, causing
portfolio management to mutate into risk management, e.g. long held methodologies
and investment styles are gradually being replaced by more scientific approaches
and tools to manage money, assets and risk97. Hedge funds partly replicate this
risk, and would therefore be a natural addition to any portfolio pursuing it. Recent
hedge fund start-ups are increasingly employing investment strategies that are more
93
JORION, Philippe, “Risk Management Lessons from Long-Term Capital Management”, European
Financial Management Journal, September 2000.
94
FREEMAN & Co LLC, “Asset Management Industry: Changing Tides”, New York, 2001.
95
INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Hedge Funds: Bubble or New Paradigm? The Asset Management
Industry is Leaning Towards Absolute Return Objectives and Risk Management”, UBS Warburg,
London, 2001.
96
WARWICK, Ben, “Searching for Alpha – The Quest for Exceptional Investment Performance”, John
Wiley and Sons, New York, 2000.
97
INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Hedge Funds: Bubble or New Paradigm? The Asset Management
Industry is Leaning Towards Absolute Return Objectives and Risk Management”, UBS Warburg,
London, 2001.
52
suited to this, i.e. more conservative strategies embracing risk management;
But with an institutional investment industry partly in agreement that hedge funds
make sense, the channelling and distribution process of hedge funds has become
more straightforward. Larger institutions and financial advisors now offer hedge
fund products to their clients, whilst previously the investor had to actively search
for hedge funds99. The institutionalisation of hedge funds is another step in this
process; traditional asset management firms are now buying up hedge funds and
larger alternative investment/hedge fund groups are forming, although the boutique
There is widespread consent that the hedge fund industry will attract more
capital in the future. How dramatic this development will be is difficult to gauge, but
predictions suggest that the inflow of capital, especially from institutional investors,
will be substantial. The hedge fund industry is very dynamic and changing
constantly, and should be able to accommodate for increased capital. More precise
forecasts, other than that the industry will continue to grow, are difficult to make.
There are major trends that will have an impact on the industry though, which in
turn could influence investment decisions, and the long-term outlook for hedge
funds.
climate with investors racing to allocate capital into hedge funds suggests otherwise.
Competition will be intensified when the industry grows and matures. This could
lead to declining fees and profits, but current profit margins for hedge funds are very
98
INEICHEN, Alexander M, “Who’s Long? Market Neutral Versus Long/Short Equity”, UBS
Warburg, London, 2001.
99
CULLIN, Iain, “SPECIAL REPORT: Marketing Hedge Funds”, AIMA, London, 1999.
100
ARTHUR ANDERSEN, “The Global Hedge Fund Industry: Moving into the New Millennium”, by
Market Practices Group, Financial Markets Practice, Arthur Andersen, November 2001.
53
generous. A growing hedge fund sector will also arguably find it difficult to maintain
vastly superior returns, due to the increased capital exploiting the same niches of
market inefficiency. There are also concerns related to the industry’s ability to
recruit enough talented managers to cater for increased capacity, but this is a rather
unconvincing proposition. Declining returns may be a reality in the long term, but
the implied risks should also decrease through improved risk management
and the hedge fund sector will continue to structure more sophisticated products.
This could lead to an increased polarisation between niche specialists and multi-
manager structures; e.g. a division of labour with specialists focusing on trading and
fund funds focusing on selection and marketing. Hedge fund consultants and
Industry consolidation will occur to some extent, but will fall short of evolving
private “boutique” structures of hedge funds are not only favourable for proprietary
own funds or offering fund of funds, through which they are capturing an increasing
market share, but there is arguably a limit to economies of scale in the hedge fund
proprietary nature of the investment strategies though. As hedge funds grow and
101
Financial advisors, private banks, asset managers etc.
102
RAMA, Rao & SZILAGYI, Jerry G, “The Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund Industry: The Case
for Growth and Restructuring”, RR Capital Management and KPMG, New York, 1998.
54
This could lead to stricter supervision of hedge funds, and hence increased
transparency, but it is ambiguous how welcome this development will be. The first
disclosure practices less obscure, but currently this is a long way ahead.
In summary, the future evolution of the hedge fund industry should not
hamper the industry’s ability to produce superior risk-adjusted returns to the extent
103
LATHAM, Mark, Investment Director, Odey Asset Management. From presentation: “Established
Firms Vs. Boutique Firms”, Euromoney 2nd Annual Hedge Fund Conference, London, October, 2001.
55
CONCLUSıONS
new paradigm in asset management. This stipulates that theoretically hedge funds
should be included in a portfolio of investments, but also refers to the notion of the
The contrary hypothesis would be that the hedge fund boom is a bubble. A
bubble exists when investors reach a consensus view of increased expected returns
and de-emphasise sound research, due diligence and logical economic reasoning,
burst when expectations converge with reality. The apparent hedge fund boom has
To evaluate whether such a bubble exists, the paper has examined the
hedge fund industry and the wider investment management industry. The findings
are that the current boom does not display the characteristics of a bubble, but
rather the opposite. Capital allocation into hedge funds falls well short of what
This paper has provided solid evidence in favour of the rationale of hedge
fund investment. Hedge funds do add value, and there is significant evidence of out-
performance. The risk/return characteristics of hedge funds are unique, and there
contrast to the traditional view that active management does not yield better
performance, hedge funds produce abnormal returns, hence the hedge fund puzzle.
The risk exposures faced by hedge funds are not comprehensively understood, but
56
Significant non-correlation to traditional investments further enhances their
value in a portfolio context, and partial capital allocation into hedge funds is a
prudent investment approach. Fund selection and risk management are of great
importance, and the risks associated with holding just one or two funds can be
diversified portfolio of funds. Hedge fund consultants and fund funds are
There is evidence that fund of funds is a highly efficient vehicle for capturing
hedge fund performance. They can reduce risks to bond levels and while still
especially valuable in current market conditions, and could become even more
valuable in the event of the predicted further market slowdown occurring. But there
is also evidence that hedge funds were value-adding investments during the strong
bull markets of the 1990s. The current boom is therefore not only a product of
investment management.
Although there has been a dramatic inflow of capital into hedge funds, they
still control only a minute amount of the capital available. Evidence of the efficient
levels of hedge fund investments lying between 10 and 20%, contrasts with
institutional investors currently allocating less than 1 %. The growth prospects are
enormous. This raises the issue of capacity problems, which eventually might have a
deterring effect on hedge fund returns. This issue remains ambiguous, but hedge
fund performance has been persistent throughout the dramatic expansion seen in
certain that their ability to provide value-added will not fade away in the short term.
It is questionable whether this could even occur in the longer term. At this point in
time, investors should therefore disregard bubble theory and follow fundamentals.
57
BıBLıOGRAPHY
AGERWAL, Vikas & NAIK, Narayan Y, “On taking the Alternative Route: Risk,
Reward, Style and Performance Persistence of Hedge Funds”, Journal of Alternative
Investments, 2000a, Vol. 2, No. 4.
AMIN, Gaurav S & KAT, Harry M, “Hedge Fund Performance 1990-2000: Do the
Money Machines Really Add Value?”, Working Paper, University of Reading, 2001.
ARTHUR ANDERSEN, “The Global Hedge Fund Industry: Moving into the New
Millennium”, by Market Practices Group, Financial Markets Practice, Arthur
Andersen, November 2001.
BARRA ROGERS CASEY, “An Introduction to Hedge Funds”, BARRA Inc., 2001.
BOUSSEMA, Merian & BUENO, Alain & SEQUIER, Pierre, “Transaction Costs and
Trading Strategies: An Empirical Analysis on Global Equity Markets”, Sinopia Asset
Management, Paris, 2001.
BURKI, Valentin & LARQUE Rudolphe, “Hedge Fund Returns and their Drivers”,
Master Thesis, Ecole des HCE, University of Lausanne 2001.
CAPITAL MARKETS RISK ADVISORS Inc, “Hedge fund Survey Overview”, New
York, 2000.
CHANDLER, Beverly, “Investing with the Hedge Fund Giants”, 2nd Edition, Prentice
Hall London, 2002.
COLE, Brad & AKEY, Rian, “Deconstructing Structures Products”, Cole Partners
LLC, 2000.
COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul
Haupt, Bern, 2000.
58
CROSSBOARDER CAPITAL, “Absolute Return Fund Strategies: The Young Ones”,
London, 2000.
CULLIN, Iain, “SPECIAL REPORT: Marketing Hedge Funds”, AIMA, London, 1999.
FREEMAN & Co LLC, “Asset Management Industry: Changing Tides”, New York,
2001.
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading
Strategies; The Case for Hedge Funds”, The Review of Financial Studies, 1997a, Vol.
10, No. 2.
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Benchmarks of Hedge Fund performance:
Information Content & Measurement Biases”, Working Paper, Fuqua School of
Business, Duke University, 2000.
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Asset based Hedge Fund Styles and Portfolio
Diversification”, Working Paper, Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, 2000.
FUNG, William & HSIEH, David A., “Performance Characteristics of Hedge Fund
and CTA Funds: Natural Versus Spurious Biases”, Journal of Financial and
Quantitative Analysis, 2000, Vol. 10, No. 3.
HAGSTROM, Robert G, “The Warren Buffet Portfolio: mastering the power of the
focus investment strategy”, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1999.
Hedge Funds Review “What do you want from a prime broker?”, Cover Story,
January 2001.
IMF, “Background Note on the Hedge Fund Industry”, Financial Stability Forum,
2000.
59
JORION, Philippe, “Risk Management Lessons from Long-Term Capital
Management”, European Financial Management Journal, September 2000.
HOWELL, Michael, “The Young Ones”, AIMA newsletter, June 2001. (Managing
Director, Crossborder Capital Ltd.)
KESTIN, Ross & JEAGER Lars, “The Benefits of alternative investment strategies in
the Institutional portfolio”, SAIS Group AG, Switzerland, 2001.
LIANG, Bing, “Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead”, Weatherhead School of
Management, Forthcoming Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Current
Version 2000.
LO, Andrew, W., “Risk Management for Hedge Funds: Introduction and Overview”,
Working Paper, MIT Sloan School of Management & AlphaSimplex Group, US, June
2001.
MARTIN, George, “Making Sense of Hedge Fund Returns: What matters and what
doesn’t”, Working Paper, Forthcoming in Derivatives Strategies, University of
Massachusetts, 2000.
McKENZIE, Mark-Anthony, “Growth in the Global Hedge Fund Industry and Due
Diligence of Offshore Hedge Funds”, Cayman Islands Monetary Authority, 2001.
MERRILL LYNCH/CAP GEMINI ERNST & YOUNG, “World Wealth Report 2001”,
published 2001 by Merrill Lynch Group International and Cap Gemini Ernst &
Young International.
MITCHELL, Mark & PULVINO, Todd & STAFFORD, Erik, “Limited Arbitrage in
Equity Markets”, Harvard University and Northwestern University, Forthcoming
Journal of Finance April 2002.
MORGAN STANLEY DEAN WITTER, “Why Hedge Funds Make Sense”, New York,
2000.
OSTERBERG, William P & THOMSON, James B, “The Truth about Hedge Funds”,
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Cleveland, 1999.
PFPC – Global Fund Services, “Navigate the Maze of Opportunities”, U.S & Ireland,
2001.
PIKE, Richard & NEALE, Bill, “Corporate Finance and Investment: Decisions and
Strategies”, Prentice Hall, London, 1993.
60
PRICE WATERHOUSE COOPERS, “The European Pensions and Savings Revolution –
Our Vision of the Future”, by John Hawksworth, Nicholas Vause, David Pettitt, Jenny
Lee, and Travis Baker, PWC, 2000.
RZENPCEYNSKI, Mark S & NENBAUER, Franklin & HENRY, John W & Co,
“Adding hedge funds to a traditional asset portfolio: what can we learn?”, AIMA
Newsletter, London, 2001.
RAMA, Rao & SZILAGYI, Jerry G, “The Coming Evolution of the Hedge Fund
Industry: The Case for Growth and Restructuring”, RR Capital Management and
KPMG, New York, 1998.
ROSENBAUM, Robert I., “Fund of Funds: The Right Choice for Your Clients’
Allocation to Hedge Funds”, Investment Management Consultants Association,
IMCA, September/October 2000.
SCHIENIER, Garry G & DREES, Burkhead & LEE, William, “Managing Global
Finance and Risk”, Finance and Development, Dec. 1999.
SCHNEEWIES, Thomas, “Alpha, Alpha, Whose got the Alpha?”, Working Paper,
Isenberg School of Management & University of Massachusetts, 1999.
SPURGIN, Richard, “How to Game Your Sharpe Ratio”, Working Paper, Clark
University, 2000.
TEMPLE, Peter, “Hedge Funds: the courtesans of capitalism”, John Wiley & Sons,
Chichester, 2001.
TREMONT PARTNERS & TASS INVESTMENT RESEARCH, “The Case for Hedge
Funds”, London & New York, 2000.
WARWICK, Ben, “Searching for Alpha – The Quest for Exceptional Investment
Performance”, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 2000.
61
ıNTERNET RESOURCES
http://altinvest.org
http://www.aima.org
http://www.e-hedge.com
http://www.hedgefund411.com
http://www.hedgefundcenter.com
http://www.hedgefundcity.com
http://www.hedgefunddynamics.com
http://www.hedgefundnews.com
http://www.hedgeinfo.com
http://www.hedgeworld.com
http://www.hfr.com
http://www.iijai.com
http://www.irr.org
http://www.magnum.com
http://www.mondohedge.com
http://www.parkplace.net
http://www.planethedgefund.com
http://www.plusfunds.com
http://www.tassman.com
http://www.turnkeyhedgefunds.com
http://www.vanhedge.com
http://www.village.albourne.com
62
APPENDıX A – STRATEGY CLASSıFıCATıON
To illustrate the diversity in hedge fund strategy classification, an overview
with examples of different hedge fund classifications is presented here. Included are
employ, and portrays the complexity and sophistication of the hedge fund universe.
63
Table A.2 Classification by Academics
Phillip Cottier Thomas Schneeweis Vikas Agerval & William Fung &
& Richard Spurgin Narayan Y. Naik David A. Hsien
Leveraged long equity Relative value Non-directional Convertible arbitrage
- Equity market Strategies
Short-only equity neutral Distressed securities
- Convertible hedge - Fixed income
Long/short US equity - Bond hedge arbitrage Emerging markets
- Event driven
Long/short European Event - Equity hedge Equity hedge
equity - Merger arbitrage - Restructuring
- Bankruptcy - Event arbitrage Equity market neutral
Long/short global - Multi-strategy - Capital structure
equity arbitrage Equity non-hedge
Equity hedge
Leveraged bond and - Domestic long Directional Strategies Event driven
fixed income arbitrage - Hedged equity
- Global / - Macro Fixed income
Mortgage-backed international - Long
securities arbitrage - Hedge (long bias) Macro
Global - Short
Convertible bond - Discretionary Market timing
- Systematic
Distressed securities - Short Merger arbitrage
Macro Sector
Multi-manager
questionable if there will ever be one considering; 1) The complexity of the strategies,
transparency, 4) The lack of a leading hedge fund index. These factors combine to
make academic work and performance monitoring difficult, but such is the nature of
the industry.
64
APPENDıX B – REGULATORY ıSSUES
The European hedge fund industry has been limited in development due to
though, and other countries are represented in this short description of the
degrees of regulation in selected countries. The regulatory environment for the hedge
fund industry is very complex and varies greatly from country to country. However,
a detailed description of the legal and marketing aspects for the selected countries is
65
Cayman Islands, Very High Yes if very high - -
Bahamas, investment
Netherlands
Antilles
British Virgin Very High No restrictions - -
Islands
(Source: The overview is based on findings in: COTTIER, Philipp, “Hedge Funds and Managed
Futures”, 3rd Edition, Verlag Paul Haupt, Bern, 2000.)
66