while OTC options can be of either type. Some option Payoff on a written call= -max[0, ST-K]. This is shown
writers prefer to sell European options as this allows in Figure 2.3 below.
them to plan their exposure more accurately. We will
be dealing with European options in this paper. Payoff
Payoff
0
K ST 0
K ST
Fig 2.1: Payoff graph on a purchased call.
-K
The second is to buy a put. That is, purchase an
option to sell the underlying commodity or asset.
Payoff on a purchased put= max[0, K-ST]. This is
shown in Figure 2.2 below.
Fig 2.4: Payoff graph on a written put
Payoff
The profit on a position= payoff on position-future
value of net cost on position.
Cost is positive when premium is paid in attaining
K the position and it’s negative when premium is
received. Therefore, net cost can be positive or
negative.
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
with the volatility of the market. If volatility is expected In the early 1970’s, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes
to be low, the future trading range will be narrower and Robert Merton made a major breakthrough in the
and the present value of the potential income stream pricing of stock options. This involved the
from holding an option will be smaller since there is a development of what has become known as the
lower probability of a large change in prices before Black-Scholes model. The model has had a huge
expiry. However, if volatility is expected to be high, influence on the way that traders price and hedge
the future trading range will be wider and the present options.
value of the potential income stream from holding an
option will be larger since there is a higher probability Assumptions
of a large change in prices before expiry (Natenberg, The Black-Scholes model is based on a few
1994). simplifying assumptions.
1. Stocks pay no dividends during the life of the
There are two types of price volatility used in pricing option.
options. These are the Historical volatility and the 2. The Black-Scholes model only prices European
Implied volatility. call options.
3. No commissions are charged.
Historical volatility – as its name suggests – is the 4. Interest rates and volatility remain constant and
range that prices have traded in over a given period known.
in the past. Historical volatility allows us to see how 5. Stock prices are lognormally distributed.
prices have behaved under known market conditions. 6. Markets are efficient.
From this, we may be able to build a confidence level 7. Shares of a stock can be divided.
to help us in assessing the predictability of current
situations. Volatility is defined in terms of variations in Brownian Motion
the proportionate change in price. Therefore, when The Black-Scholes formula is a closed-form formula
finding an estimated value of it, we must take the for evaluating the value of a European option. This
standard deviation of ln(St/St-1). We observe these pricing is based on the assumption that the
ratios daily, weekly or monthly and obtain an estimate movement of asset prices follows some sort of
of daily, weekly or monthly volatility. Then we multiply random walk. A (one-dimensional) discrete random
this by the square root of 365 over the unit (that is, walk models somebody starting out on the x-axis at
365 for days, 52 for weeks, 12 for months) to obtain the point 0 and then moving left or right at the rate of
the annual volatility (Weishaus, 2008). 1 per unit time, with the direction being chosen
randomly. Suppose that instead of moving 1 per unit
Choosing an appropriate number of data to be used of time, we moved h per h units of time and took
in the volatility estimation is not easy. More data
generally lead to more accuracy, but volatility does the limit as h → 0 . Then we would have a
change over time and data that are too old may not continuous random walk which is a normal random
be relevant for predicting the future volatility. An variable, and we would have Brownian motion. This
often-used rule of thumb is to set the number of data is also known as the Wiener process (Weishaus,
equal to the number of days to which the volatility is 2008).
to be applied. Thus, if the volatility estimate is to be Brownian motion Z (t ) is a random process, a
used to value a 1-year option, data for the last year is collection of variables indexed by time t , defined by
used (Hull, 2006). the following properties:
1. Z (0) = 0
Implied volatility is the range that prices are expected
to trade over a given period in the future. Implied 2. Z (t ) has a normal distribution with mean
values are calculated by inputting option premiums
into an option pricing model. 0 and variance t .
Black-Scholes Pricing Model: In financial terms,
the price of an option is simply the present value of 3. Increments are independent
the future income stream that can be expected from
holding the option contract (Fusaro, 1998).
4. Z (t ) is continuous in t .
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
process where only the present value of a variable is future time T is normally distributed, with mean
relevant for predicting the future. The third property of (α − 0.5σ 2 )T and variance σ 2T . That is,
the Brownian motion stated above implies that Z (t )
follows a Markov process.
ln ST − ln S 0 ~ N ⎡⎣ (α − 0.5σ 2 )T , σ 2T ⎤⎦
Arithmetic Brownian motion (or the generalized or
Weiner process) consists of a Brownian motion
scaled by multiplication and shifted by addition. The
mean change per unit time for a stochastic process is
ln ST ~ N ⎡⎣ ln S 0 + (α − 0.5σ 2 )T , σ 2T ⎤⎦
known as the drift rate and the variance per unit time Which shows that ST follows a lognormal
is known as the variance rate. If X (t ) is an
distribution.
arithmetic Brownian motion (and note that Z (t ) is In a risk-neutral world, α is replaced with the
Brownian motion), then continuous compound interest rate r .
X ( t ) = α t + σ Z (t ) The principle of risk-neutral valuation implies that the
Thus, X (t + s ) − X (t ) has a normal distribution with present value of the option is the expected final value
of the option discounted at the risk-free interest rate.
mean α s and variance σ 2 s . Let us consider a call option, which is known to have
α is the expected drift rate per unit of time and σ is a final value of max( ST − K , 0) at time T . By the
called the volatility of the process.
Arithmetic Brownian motion is not a good model for risk-neutral principle, the premium, C paid for this
stock price movement because, it can go negative option at time 0 is
and does not scale with stock price; one would
C = e− rT E[max( ST − K , 0)]
expect the proportional movement of stock price,
rather than the arithmetic movement, to follow a ∞
ln X (t ) = ln X (0) + (α − 0.5σ 2 )t + σ Z (t )
C = S 0 N ( d1 ) − Ke − rT N ( d 2 ) (4.2)
(4.1)
where
⎛S ⎞ ⎛ σ ⎞
2
The Black-Scholes Formula
ln ⎜ 0 ⎟ + ⎜ r + ⎟T
From equation (4.1), if ST and S 0 are the prices of ⎝K⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
d1 = , and
the underlying security at time T and 0 respectively, σ T
then
⎛S ⎞ ⎛ σ ⎞
2
ln ST = ln S0 + (α − 0.5σ 2 )T + σ Z ln ⎜ 0 ⎟ + ⎜ r − ⎟T
⎝K⎠ ⎝ 2 ⎠
In fact, it can be easily seen from the above equation d2 = = d1 − σ T
that, the change in ln S between time 0 and some σ T
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
P = Ke − rT N (− d ) − S N (− d )
The general form of2 the Black-Scholes
0 1 formula for a
call option is
Fig 5.1: Crude oil prices
C = F P ( S ) N ( d1 ) − F P ( K ) N ( d 2 )
where Hedging with Options: Options can be used to
1 achieve a great variety of possible outcomes
ln( F ( S ) / F ( K )) + σ 2T
P P
depending on the exposure and risk preferences of
d1 = 2 and the user. The next two sections describe common
σ T option trading strategies that are widely used in the
oil industry.
1
ln( F P ( S ) / F P ( K )) − σ 2T Producer Hedge: An oil producer or distributor
d2 = 2 = d1 − σ T would like to hedge the value of its production. On
σ T October 9, 2009 (the day that the data was analyzed)
In this equation, F
P
indicate a pre-paid forward the price of crude oil is $x/barrel. The producer
price (present value of forward price). expects prices to fluctuate during the two years
S is the underlying asset-that is the asset which you period of the hedge (from October 9, 2009 – October
9, 20ll), but is concerned about the risk of prices
may elect to receive at the end of the period, T . K
falling below $y/barrel. If the producer is also
is the strike asset-which is the asset you may elect to
prepared to accept a maximum price of $z/barrel for
pay at the end of the period, T. its production, a combination of put and call options
can be used to hedge. Buy a $y/barrel put option and
Data Analysis: The study was limited to secondary sell a $z/barrel call option. The result of this strategy
data obtained from The Energy Information is to limit the downside and upside price risks to a
Administration on weekly all countries spot price of range between $y/barrel and $z/barrel.
crude oil from January 2006 to October 2009. The
Black-Scholes model is used for the computation of If prices of crude oil fall below $y/barrel at the end of
the options prices and some of the trading strategies two years, the $z call option will be worthless but the
of the options used in hedging commodities like $y put option will be exercised giving the producer
crude oil are looked at. the right to sell its output at $y/barrel, however low
prices go. If prices rise above $z/barrel, the $y put
Figure 5.1 shows the fluctuations in crude oil prices option will be worthless, the $z call option will be
over a period of two years (October 2007-October exercised and the producer will be obliged to sell
2009). crude at $z/barrel, however high prices go. If prices
are between $y/barrel and $z/barrel, neither of the
options will be exercised and the producer sells its
crude at the prevailing market price. This strategy is
known as a collar. The strike price of the option can
be set at any level, but the put and call options must
be equally far out-of-the money if the cost of the put
and call is to be the same. If the costs of the options
are the same, the strategy is known as a zero cost
collar (Cherry, 2007).
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
Consumer Hedge: A crude oil consumer has based The values as shown in Table 1 and Table 2 indicate
its crude oil purchasing plan on a maximum price of the profit that would have been realized if a consumer
$x/barrel in two years time. In order to protect (or Ghana Government) had hedged crude oil prices
themselves against a price move above $x/barrel, the in 2007 and 2008 respectively. The spot price for
purchasing department could buy a two years $x call each month is the monthly average crude oil price
option. The result of this strategy is to limit the upside (dollars per barrel) and the volatility is estimated from
price risk so that the maximum price paid by the crude oil prices in the previous year. For the year
company for crude oil would be $x/barrel (Hull, 2006). 2007, the Volatility=0.1915 and for the year 2008, the
Volatility=0.2222.
If prices rise above $x/barrel at the end of two years,
the call option will be exercised and the company can The expiration time is six months (T=0.5) and the
obtain its supplies from the option writer at $x/barrel. strike price is the forward price of the monthly spot
However, if prices remain below $x/barrel, the $x call price (K=S0erT). In fact, these derivative traders
option will not be exercised and the purchasing usually use LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) as
department can meet its plan target with direct short-term risk-free rates. This is because they
purchases on the spot market. However, the regard LIBOR as their opportunity cost of capital. For
purchasing department will lose the premium paid at the year 2007, Interest rate=0.0528 and for the year
the beginning of the transaction (at time 0) for the call 2008, Interest rate=0.0317.
option. The combined profit on the crude oil and
purchased call will then be equal to the profit on the
purchased call.
Jan-07 50.7725 52.1307 0.527 0.473 2.7407 2.814 72.8675 20.7368 17.9227
Feb-07 53.65 55.0852 0.527 0.473 2.896 2.9735 69.478 14.3928 11.4193
Mar-07 58.698 60.2683 0.527 0.473 3.1685 3.2533 73.8825 13.6142 10.361
Apr-07 63.6725 65.3758 0.527 0.473 3.437 3.529 78.155 12.7792 9.25018
May-07 63.905 65.6146 0.527 0.473 3.4496 3.5419 88.862 23.2474 19.7056
Jun-07 66.894 68.6835 0.527 0.473 3.6109 3.7075 87.62 18.9365 15.229
Jul-07 72.8675 74.8168 0.527 0.473 3.9334 4.0386 89.865 15.0482 11.0096
Aug-07 69.478 71.3366 0.527 0.473 3.7504 3.8507 90.816 19.4794 15.6286
Sep-07 73.8825 75.859 0.527 0.473 3.9882 4.0949 100.48 24.621 20.5262
Oct-07 78.155 80.2458 0.527 0.473 4.2188 4.3317 104.98 24.7342 20.4026
Nov-07 88.862 91.2392 0.527 0.473 4.7968 4.9251 118.928 27.6888 22.7637
Dec-07 87.62 89.964 0.527 0.473 4.7297 4.8562 128.063 38.0985 33.2423
Total profit=$207.4606
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
Jan-08 89.865 91.3007 0.5313 0.4687 5.6271 5.717 133.5225 42.2218 36.5048
Feb-08 90.816 92.2669 0.5313 0.4687 5.6866 5.7775 113.972 21.7051 15.9276
Nov-08 50.9025 51.7157 0.5313 0.4687 3.1874 3.2383 54.914 3.19827 -0.04
Dec-08 39.7075 40.3419 0.5313 0.4687 2.4864 2.5261 67.6975 27.3556 24.8295
Total profit=$21.72133
price for the purchase or sale of oil at a future date in
The total gain and total loss for 2007 and 2008 are exchange for a fixed non-refundable “insurance”
illustrated in Figure 5.2 below. premium. When options are used in hedging, the
losses are limited to the premium paid.
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Am. J. Soc. Mgmt. Sci., 2010, 1(1): 67-74
CONCLUSIONS: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/wtotopecw.htm,
The above analysis shows that, it is prudent and (accessed 2009 October 10)
financially beneficial for the government of Ghana to [3] Fusaro, P.C. (1998). Energy Risk Management:
go into hedging using short maturity options. Hedging Hedging Strategies and Instruments for the
International Energy Markets, first edition. New York:
stabilizes the fluctuations of company’s cash flows. McGraw-Hill. pp. 9-37
Hedging decreases company’s price risk exposure
when being involved with physical products. It also [4] Hull, C. J., (2006). Options, futures and Other
provides effective financial management of the Derivatives, sixth edition. Pearson Prentice Hall. pp.
company and enables management to focus on other 99-373
factors of the business. Also, options are more
flexible compared to other derivative instruments [5] Long, D., (2000) Oil Trading Manual, Cambridge:
used in price risk management. Short maturity Woodhead Publishing Ltd., Supplement 3.
options are cheaper and with less risk as compared [6] McDonald, L.R. (2006). Derivatives Market, second
to long maturity options and hedging with options edition. Pearson Education, Inc.
secure competitive advantage by locking in high/low
prices. [7] Natenberg, S., (1994), Option Volatility & Pricing:
Advanced Trading Strategies and Techniques,
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74