Union Budget FY12

Reasonable … under the circumstances

Anantha Narayan
anantha.narayan@icicisecurities.com
+91-22 6637 7311

Koushik Rajagopalan
koushik.rajagopalan@icicisecurities.com
+91-22 6637 7114

I-Sec Equity Research

i-sec.equityResearch@icicisecurities.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Reasonable … under the circumstances
z Given the headwinds of one-off receipts in FY11 and political compulsions the Government faces, we think
the Budget is reasonable; expectations were low to start off in any case. In a way, the biggest positive was
that the Finance Minister resisted the temptation of introducing populist measures.
z The key positive surprise in the headline numbers is the FY12 fiscal deficit target of 4.6% versus the target
of 4.8% set in FY11 Budget. This, along with the targeted net borrowing of Rs3,430bn, is lower than the
Street’s expectations. However, there will be some significant challenges for the Government to meet these
targets and we do not think that the positive headlines will assuage concerns on India’s fiscal situation in
the near term.
z We see two key challenges for the Government to meet its targets. First, it has budgeted only Rs236bn as
petroleum and Rs500bn as fertiliser subsidies. And we estimate petroleum subsidies to exceed Rs1,000bn
if crude prices were to sustain at current levels and fertiliser subsidies could near Rs800bn. These levels of
subsidies could theoretically add over 1% to the budgeted fiscal deficit. One possibility that emerges from
the Government’s estimates is that of diesel price deregulation – this could be politically very difficult
though. Second, the government has budgeted ~9% GDP growth in FY12 to estimate its receipts and a
slower-than-expected growth will negatively impact the Government’s deficit targets.
z Overall, we think the potential overhang to the markets from a potentially populist Budget is now out of the
way and the focus will be back on issues such as crude prices, domestic liquidity situation, foreign flows
and the political situation. We think that the markets could drift sideways for some time till there is some
respite or clarity on these issues but we do not see significant downside as many of these concerns are
now well understood and recent underperformance has made valuations more reasonable.

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Budget FY12: Key budget highlights
z Subsidies could be significantly understated. The Government has provided for Rs236bn as subsidies to
oil marketing companies (OMCs) in FY12. In our view, this is extremely low – we expect more than Rs1,200bn
in subsidies at average crude price of US$100/bbl. In FY11 Budget, the government had provided for Rs31bn
as OMC subsidies, but the total for the first nine months of FY11 comes in at Rs230bn. The cash
compensation for FY11 is expected to be Rs384bn, as per the revised Budget estimates.
Similarly, the Government has provided Rs500bn in fertiliser subsidy for FY12 – in our view, Rs800bn is more
realistic. Also, it is not clear why only Rs550bn has been provided as the revised fertiliser subsidy for FY11
when the industry sources point to a likely subsidy of Rs750-800bn.
The Finance Minister has targeted to reduce fiscal deficit to 4.1% of GDP in FY13 and 3.5% of GDP in FY14.
z Rs400bn disinvestment target will be dependent on capital market conditions. The Government has
budgeted Rs400bn from the disinvestment in FY12. It had a similar target in FY11 and the YTD receipts have
been ~Rs230bn.
z Thrust on infrastructure. There have been measures to accelerate investment in infrastructure through
budgetary allocation, enhanced limits for FII investment in corporate bonds and tax-free bonds.
z No significant change in taxes for corporates. The surcharge for corporate tax has been reduced to 5%
from 7.5% and the Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) increased to 18.5% from 18%. Contrary to expectations,
excise duties were not increased.

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Budget FY12: Key budget highlights (Cont’d)
z DTC will be implemented from April 1, ‘12; GST looks more challenging. The Finance Minister
affirmed that the Direct Tax Code (DTC) will be implemented from April 1, ‘12. He mentioned that some of
the issues with the states on GST have been resolved and the IT infrastructure is being put in place;
however, building consensus among various constituents on GST seems more difficult.
z FDI promises but no details. The Finance Minister indicated that there are discussions underway to
further liberalise the FDI policy but no details were put forth.
z Doors have been opened for foreign investors but significant impact unlikely. The Government
proposes to allow foreign nationals to invest in the domestic mutual funds. However, we do not think that
this would have any significant impact on flows in Indian equities given the challenges in marketing and
distribution of such funds, and possible issues on tax implications for foreign nationals.
z New banking licenses. The Finance Minister indicated that legislative amendments and guidelines from
the central bank on this issue would be forthcoming by end-March.

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Budget FY12: Key budget highlights
(Rs bn) 2009-10 2010-2011 2010-2011 2011-12
Actuals Budget Revised Budget
Provisional Estimates Estimates Estimates
1 Revenue Receipts 5,728 6,822 7,838 7,899
2 Tax Revenue (net to centre) 4,565 5,341 5,637 6,645
3 Non-Tax Revenue 1,163 1,481 2,201 1,254
4 Capital Receipts (5+6+7) 4,517 4,265 4,327 4,678
5 Recoveries of Loans 86 51 90 150
6 Other Receipts 246 400 227 400
7 Borrowings and other liabilities* 4,185 3,814 4,010 4,128
8 Total Receipts (1+4) 10,245 11,087 12,166 12,577
9 Non-Plan Expenditure 7,211 7,357 8,216 8,162
10 On Revenue Account of which, 6,579 6,436 7,267 7,336
11 Interest Payments 2,131 2,487 2,408 2,680
12 On Capital Account 632 921 948 826
13 Plan Expenditure 3,034 3,731 3,950 4,415
14 On Revenue Account 2,539 3,151 3,269 3,636
15 On Capital Account 495 580 681 779
16 Total Expenditure (9+13) 10,245 11,087 12,166 12,577
17 Revenue Expenditure (10+14) 9,118 9,587 10,537 10,972
18 Of Which, Grants for creation of Capital Assets - 313 908 1,469
19 Capital Expenditure (12+15) 1,127 1,500 1,629 1,606
20 Revenue Deficit (17-1) 3,390 2,765 2,698 3,073
% of GDP 5.2 4.0 3.4 3.4
21 Effective Revenue Deficit (17-18) 2,452 1,791 1,604
% of GDP 3.5 2.3 1.8
22 Fiscal Deficit {16-(1+5+6)} 4,185 3,814 4,010 4,128
% of GDP 6.4 5.5 5.1 4.6
23 Primary Deficit (20-11) % of GDP 2,054 1,327 1,602 1,448
% of GDP 3.1 1.9 2.0 1.6
Source: India Budget documents

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Sectoral impact
Auto
Key measures: Immediate positive comes from the decision not to hike excise rates. Excise rates
remain at 10%.
Focus on infra spending (including roads and highways) and rural India is generally
positive.
Overall impact: Neutral
Key winners: M&M (which gets added benefit through tractors) and the two-wheeler industry, which
have significant rural presence vs other auto sub-segments.
Key losers: No indication of decreasing the differential between cost of ownership of diesel-based
passenger cars and the petrol-based ones.
This is disappointing as it skews demand in favour of diesel-based vehicles.

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Banking
Key measures: The Government’s borrowing figure of Rs3.43tn is much lower than the Street’s estimates and
looks good on the face of it.
Housing loans upto Rs2.5mn will now be classified as priority sector loans (PSL). This is just
marginally positive for banks and enables them to better fulfill the PSL requirement.
The Government has extended the interest subvention of 1% to loans of sub-Rs1.5mn ticket
size where the cost of the house must be sub-Rs2.5mn from Rs1mn and Rs2mn respectively.
This could mobilise some volumes in the low ticket size segment and aid housing loan growth.
The Budget sets aside Rs60bn towards recapitalisation of PSU banks for FY12. The
Government has not provided for the SBI rights issue of Rs200bn, which will require the
Government to infuse ~Rs120bn to maintain its stake. We don’t think this represents any risk
to SBI’s capitalisation programme but is more on account of under-providing to present a low
fiscal deficit. The Government has re-iterated maintaining a minimum holding of 51% in PSUs.
The Budget extended interest subvention to 3% over and above the 7% lending rate for short-
term crop loans for farmers who repay on time. This is marginally positive, as it shifts the
burden from PSU banks to the Government and secures a higher proportion of repayment.
Also, it incentivises timely repayment which should be incrementally positive for banks’ asset
quality.
Liberalising the portfolio investment route by allowing subscriptions from foreign investors who
meet the KYC requirements for equity schemes.
Broadening the funding sources of infrastructure companies by increasing the limit for FII
investment in corporate bonds to USD25bn. This will indirectly support asset quality of PSU
banks and infrastructure finance companies.

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Banking (Cont’d)
Overall Budget impact: Marginally positive to neutral
Key winners: PSU banks and IDFC
Top I-Sec Buys: Axis Bank , Yes Bank, BoB and Union Bank of India

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Cement
Key measures : Existing excise duty structure which was based on selling price has been replaced
with the composite structure comprising ad valorem and specific component. This
is likely to increase the effective excise duty.

Existing duty rate New duty rate

i) Of retail sale price not exceeding Rs190 Rs290/te 10% ad valorem +

per 50kg bag or of per tonne equivalent Rs80/te
retail sale price not exceeding Rs3,800;

ii) Of retail sale price exceeding Rs190 per 10% of the retail 10% ad valorem +
50kg bag or of per tonne equivalent retail sales price Rs160/te
sale price exceeding Rs3,800;

Basic customs duty on two raw material components viz. pet coke and gypsum
has been reduced to 2.5% from existing 5.5%. This will not have any meaningful
positive impact.
While the companies may pass on effective excise duty hike in the near term, the
ability to pass on such cost escalations during monsoon would be limited.
Increased allocation to infrastructure sector by 23%, higher allocation to Bharat
Nirman schemes by 21% and proposed issue of tax free bonds worth Rs300bn for
infrastructure development – positive for cement demand.
Overall Budget impact: Marginally negative
Earnings impact: 0.5-2% negative impact on revenue and 2-6% on EPS depending on selling price
Key winners: None
Top I-Sec Buys: ACC and Grasim

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Education
Key measures: Allocation for education increased by 24% over the current year to Rs521bn.
Rs210bn have been allocated for the Sarva Siksha Abhiyan, which is 40%
higher than that budgeted for 2010-11.
Allocation for Model School under PPP increased from Rs4.25bn to Rs12bn.
Additional Rs5bn proposed to be provided for National Skill Development Fund
during the next year.
Overall Budget impact: Neutral
Top I-Sec Buys: Educomp and NIIT

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FMCG
Key measures: Commitment to GST is positive for the sector as a whole as it will create a level
playing field between organised and unorganised players.
No change in excise on cigarettes.
Overall Budget impact: Positive
Key winners: ITC
Top I-Sec Buys: ITC and Dabur
Top I-Sec Sells: Nestle and Colgate

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Fertilisers
Key measures: Fertiliser subsidy provision of Rs500bn (FY11 revised ~Rs550bn; budgeted Rs500bn)
in FY12.
- Government actively considering extension of the NBS regime to cover urea.
- Capital investment in fertiliser production proposed to be included as an
infrastructure sub-sector.
- Direct transfer of cash subsidy on fertilisers to people living below poverty line in a
phased manner.
Overall Budget impact: Under provisioning of subsidy is an overall negative for the sector.
Top I-Sec Buys: GSFC
Top I-Sec Sells: RCF and Nagarjuna Fertilisers

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Media
Key measures: Increase in MAT to 18.5% from 18%. However there was a corresponding
decrease in surcharge from 7.5% to 5%.
Overall Budget impact: Neutral
Top I-Sec Buys: Dish TV , HT Media and Jagran Prakashan

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Metals
Key measures: Iron ore export duty on fines increased to a consolidated 20% on lumps and fines,
from 15% on lumps and 5% on fines.
Overall Budget impact: Negative
Earnings impact: 12% impact on FY12 and FY13 earnings of Sesa Goa on account of new export
duty.
Key winners: None
Key losers: Sesa Goa
Top I-Sec Buys: Sterlite, Hindustan Zinc and SAIL

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Oil and Gas
Key measures : 1. MAT for SEZ units
Under the existing provision of section 10 AA of income tax, a deduction of 100% is
allowed in respect of profit and gains derived by units located in a SEZ from exports
for five consecutive years; or 50% for further five years and thereafter, of 50% of the
ploughed back export profit for the next five years.
Further, under section 80-IAB of the Income-tax Act, a deduction of 100% is allowed
in respect of profits and gains derived by undertaking of business of development of
an SEZ notified on or after April 1, ‘05 from the total income for 10 consecutive
assessment years out of 15 years beginning from the year in which the SEZ is
notified by the Central Government.
Under Section 115 JB(6) of Income Tax Act, an exemption is allowed from the
payment of MAT on the book profit in respect of the income accrued or arising on or
after April 1, ‘05 from any business carried on, or services rendered, by an
entrepreneur or a developer, in a unit or SEZ as the case may be.
There was no sunset date provided for the exemption from MAT in the case of a
developer of an SEZ or a unit located in an SEZ. It is proposed to sunset the
availability of exemption from MAT in case of SEZ developer and units in SEZs
in Income-Tax Act as well as SEZ Act. This amendment will take effect from
April 1, ‘12.

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Oil and Gas (Cont’d)
Implication on RIL: Currently RIL’s Jamnagar refinery was exempted from paying income tax and also
MAT. But due to above-mentioned sunset, RIL will have to pay a MAT of 18.5%
(plus 5% surcharge) and hence the effective tax rate for RIL will increase. The
precise increase could be in the range of 200-400 bps based on the MAT credit
they have under-taken for the SEZ refinery in the P&L.
2. Sunset on tax holiday for commercial production of mineral oil
In the current budget it has been proposed that seven year profit linked deduction
of 100% available for commercial production of mineral oil will not be available for
blocks licensed under a contract awarded after March 31, ‘11. This amendment will
take effect from April 1, ‘12. Hence, there will be no profit linked deduction for the
blocks awarded in NELP IX.
Implication: As the NELP IX bidding in yet to be concluded and the blocks will awarded after
March 31, ‘11, the winner of the block will not enjoy the benefit of the seven year
profit linked deduction of 100%.

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Oil and Gas (Cont’d)
Overall Budget impact: Negative
The industry especially OMCs were expecting cut in customs duty (current customs
duty – crude - 5%, petrol - 7.5% and diesel - 7.5%) and some relief on excise duty
front (current excise duty – petrol - 14.35/litre and diesel - 4.6/litre). These have not
been met and SEZs will now be under MAT payment.
The Government has provided for Rs230bn as the subsidy provision for OMCs for
FY12, which is lower than the current estimate of more than Rs600bn assuming the
overall under-recoveries for OMCs at Rs1,200bn at US$100/bbl average crude
prices. We see a sharp upward revision in this number going forward, if crude
prices continue to trade above US$100/bbl.
Additionally, there was no clarification on the tax benefits for natural gas production
for earlier rounds of NELP (rounds 1-7) and pre-NELP blocks. Hence, the ambiguity
continues.

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Pharma
Key measures: Impose MAT on SEZs
Hike in excise duty from 4% to 5%
Overall Budget impact: Neutral to Negative
Earnings impact: ~1%
Gainers: None
Losers: India focused companies to take a hit on higher excise while exports to take a
hit due to MAT on SEZ.
Top I-Sec Buys: Ranbaxy and Cipla
Top I-Sec Sells: Sun Pharma and Lupin

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Power
Key measures: MAT levy on SEZ developers and units operating in SEZs.
Marginal increase in MAT rate by 7bps.
Plan allocation of Rs60bn allocation for RGGVY and Rs20bn for R-APDRP.
Extension of clause 80-IA to FY12.
Overal Budget impact: Neutral
Earnings impact: Negligible
Key winners: None
Key losers: MAT on SEZ units negative for Adani Power
Top I-Sec Buys CESC
Top I-Sec Sells Adani Power, Reliance Power and JSW Energy

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Real Estate / Infrastructure
Key measures: DTC proposed to come into effect by April 1, ‘12. Maintains status quo on new proposed
changes. Negative for MPSEZ, Unitech and DLF.
MAT applicable for SEZ developers and units operational on SEZs. The rate has been
increased from 18% to 18.5%, Very negative for real estate developers and MPSEZs.
Negative: MPSEZ, DLF and Unitech.
Increase in loan limit to Rs2.5mn from Rs2mn, under priority sector lending and interest rate
subvention by 1% for loan amount <Rs1.5mn. Positive for real estate developers with
exposure to affordable income housing – HDIL and Puravankara.
Rs300bn debt to be raised through tax-free infrastructure bonds for the sector. Positive for
road sector companies. IRB, Asoka Buildcon, IL&FS Transport.
Overal Budget impact: Negative for real estate; Positive for infrastructure
Earnings impact: 12-13% negative impact on FY12-FY13 earnings for MPSEZ; DLF – 6-8% impact on FY12
earnings. A loan limit increase could mean a volume push.
Key winners: HDIL and Purvankaral, and road sector companies. IRB, Asoka Buildcon, IL&FS Transport,
Lanco Infra, GMR, MPSEZ and other infra companies.
Key losers: Negative for MPSEZ, Unitech and DLF

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Shipbuilding
Key measures: No separate budgetary allocation has been announced this year for shipbuilding
subsidy scheme.
Budget has proposed MAT on SEZ units
Overall impact: Neutral to Negative
A separate allocation would have eased procedural delays in receiving cash.
However, note that a shipbuilding subsidy number is normally a part of the overall
subsidy expenditure and separate number may be announced in subsequent days.
In case the Government has not allocated shipbuilding subsidy, it is slightly negative
for the sector because it will unnecessarily increase procedural delays in getting the
cash. Key loser in this case: ABG Shipyard.
Company impacted owing to MAT on SEZ units: Pipavav Shipyard which is an EoU
in SEZ.
Top I-Sec Buys ABG Shipyard. The lack of budgetary allocation is at most a procedural issue.

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Technology
Key measures : No extension of STPI benefits.
- MAT levied on units operating under SEZs – no P/L impact only cashflow impact.
- MAT rate has been increased to 18.5% from 18% and surcharge has been reduced
to 5% from 7.5%. Overall, MAT rate remains unchanged incorporating the above
two changes.
Overal Budget impact: Neutral
Top I-Sec Buys: TCS and Infosys

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Telecom
Key measures: Increase in MAT to 18.5% from 18%. However, there was a corresponding
decrease in surcharge from 7.5% to 5%.
Overall Budget impact: Neutral
Top I-Sec Buys: Bharti Airtel
Top I-Sec Sells: MTNL

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Anantha Narayan, PGDM, B.E.; Koushik Rajagopalan, PDGM, BE; Krupal Maniar, CA, CFA; Varun Sharma, MBA; Abhijit Mitra, MBA (Finance), BE; Vikash Mantri, PGDM, CFA; Satish Kothari,
PGDM; Chirag Dagli, CA; Gagan Borana, PGDM; Prakash Gaurav Goel, CA; Vivek Sharma, PGDM; Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA; Abhishek Murarka, PGDM, MBA (Finance); Digant
Haria, MBA; Sanket Maheshwari, MBA; Shaleen Silori, MBA (Finance), BTech; Aniruddha Mate, B.E. MBA (Finance); research analysts and the authors of this report, hereby certify that all of the views
expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any and all of the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly
or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Analysts aren't registered as research analysts by FINRA and might not be an associated person of the ICICI Securities
Inc.
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PGDM, CFA; Satish Kothari, PGDM; Chirag Dagli, CA; Gagan Borana, PGDM; Prakash Gaurav Goel, CA; Vivek Sharma, PGDM; Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA; Abhishek Murarka,
PGDM, MBA (Finance); Digant Haria, MBA; Sanket Maheshwari, MBA; Shaleen Silori, MBA (Finance), BTech; Aniruddha Mate, B.E. MBA (Finance) research analysts and the authors of this report have
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It is confirmed that Anantha Narayan, PGDM, B.E.; Koushik Rajagopalan, PDGM, BE; Krupal Maniar, CA, CFA; Varun Sharma, MBA; Abhijit Mitra, MBA (Finance), BE; Vikash Mantri, PGDM, CFA;
Satish Kothari, PGDM; Chirag Dagli, CA; Gagan Borana, PGDM; Prakash Gaurav Goel, CA; Vivek Sharma, PGDM; Rohit Ahuja, MBA (Finance); Prolin Nandu, MBA; Abhishek Murarka, PGDM, MBA
(Finance); Digant Haria, MBA; Sanket Maheshwari, MBA; Shaleen Silori, MBA (Finance), BTech; Aniruddha Mate, B.E. MBA (Finance) research analysts and the authors of this report or any of their
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