File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10

1NC Arms Race Turn

Reducing US military presence forces Japan to nuclearize—that guarantees nuclear war

Chanlett-Avery and Nikitin, 2k9 (Emma Chanlett-Avery, Specialist in Asian Affairs; Mary Beth Nikitin, Analyst in
Nonproliferation, "Japan's Nuclear Future: Policy Debate, Prospects, and US Interests", Congressional Research
Service, 2/19/09, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34487.pdf//ghs-avi)
The notion of Japan …. Junichiro Koizumi’s administration, fundamental distrust and the potential for conflict remains between the Pacific powers.

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File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10

2NC Arms Race Turn Overview

Extend our Arms Race Turn- Japan will respond to a lack of US engagement by nuclearizing
leading to an Asian arms race that gets out of control- impact is massive nuclear conflict- we
control the only scenario for horiztonal escalation because most of the worlds population is in Asia
and they lack multilateral institutions that make escalation to war from even minor
miscacluations EXTREMELY likely
Knight Ridder 3-10-2K (“Top administration officials warn stakes for U.S. are high in Asian conflicts”)
Few if any experts think …. security mechanism in place. There are elements for potential disaster."

And you have 3 days to live before Japan produces the bomb
Australian Financial Review (nqa) 4/7/03 [staffwriter, p. 16, LN]
Nuclear weapons are …, Japan could produce a crude nuclear weapon in three or four days.

And The brink is now—de-emphasis of nuclear policy means we need to cooperate in other areas
or risk rearm
Schoff, 2k9
(James L., Associate Director of Asia-Pacific Studies, Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis, “Realigning Priorities: The
U.S.-Japan Alliance & the Future of Extended Deterrence,” March, IFPA, Google)
The United States is ….security cooperation.

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File Name - Tournament G’Hill 2K10
2NC Link Overview: Arms Race (1/2)

And even SMALL changes in US posture triggers the link

Chanlett-Avery et. al 2k9

(Emma Chanlett-Avery, Coordinator Specialist in Asian Affairs William H. Cooper Specialist in International Trade
and Finance Mark E. Many in Specialist in Asian Affairs Weston S. KonishiAnalyst in Asian Affairs "Japan-U.S.
Relations: Issues for Congress" http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33436.pdf)
Another source of strategic … subtle—that might alter the nuclear status quo in East Asia.
And even if Japan doesn’t rearm other countries will rapidly attempt to fill the power vacuum
and cause a regional arms race

Jiji, 2/17/10
(Jiji Press, Japanese Newspaper "U.S. Commander Stresses Importance of Okinawa Base")
A U.S. Marines commander … budgets...leading to a regional arms race."
2NC Link Overview: Arms Race (2/2)

The US Marine Base is key to prevent Japanese rearmament

Japan Times 2k10

(“Share Okinawa's military burden”, pg online @ [http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-
bin/rc20100502a1.html]//greenhill-au)
Regarding the April 28 article "Hatoyama edges …, should suck it in and accept a U.S. base in their part of the country. \

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