DAFTAR ISI

Lembar Pengesahan............................................................................................i

Lembar Asistensi................................................................................................ii

Abstrak...............................................................................................................iii

Kata Pengantar...................................................................................................v

Daftar Isi.............................................................................................................vi

Daftar Tabel........................................................................................................x

Daftar Gambar...................................................................................................xi

BAB 1 Pendahuluan

1.1 Latar belakang....................................................................................1

1.2 Perumusan Masalah............................................................................2

1.3 Tujuan.................................................................................................2

1.4 Batasan Masalah.................................................................................2

1.5 Sistematika Penulisan.........................................................................3

BAB II Landasan Teori

2.1 Sistem Produksi..................................................................................4

2.2 Peramalan...........................................................................................4

2.2.1 Jenis-jenis Permalan...................................................................5

2.2.2 Proses Peramalan………............................................................5
2.2.3 Tujuan Peramalan…...................................................................5
2.3 Metode Peramalan…........................................................................6
2.3.1 Metode Moving Average…………………………...............….6
2.3.2 Metode Exsponensial Smoothing……........……………..……6
2.3.3 Metode Regresi Linier.……………………….................…....7

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 2.3.4 Metode Trend Siklis..................................................................8
2.4 Perhitungan Error Permalan………………………………......…….7

2.4.1Mean Absolute Percentage Error………………........................7

2.4.2 Percentage Error........................................................................8

2.5 Proses Verifikasi………………………………………………….....8

2.6 Perencanaan Agregat (Transportasi)..................................................8

2.7 Jumlah Induk Produksi.......................................................................8

2.8 Kapasitas Produksi.............................................................................8

BAB III : Metodologi Penelitian

3.1 Diagram Aliran.....................................................................................9

3.2 Studi Pustaka........................................................................................10

3.3 Indentifikasi Masalah...........................................................................10

3.4 Perumusa Masalah...............................................................................10

3.5 Pengumpulan Data...............................................................................10

3.6 Pengolahan Data..................................................................................10

3.7 Analisis.................................................................................................10

3.8 Penutup.................................................................................................10

BAB IV : Pengumpulan dan Pengolahan Data

4.1 Pengumpulan Data.............................................................................11

4.1.1 Data Historis Permintaan 48 Periode Angle Vise.....................11

4.1.2. Grafik Data Permintaan 48 Periode...............................................12

4.2 Pengolahan Data................................................................................12

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 4.2.1 Peramalan Permintaan....................................................................12

4.2.2 Perhitungan Error Peramalan.........................................................21

4.2.3 Verifikasi Peramalan......................................................................33

BAB V : Analisis

5.1 Analisis Peramalan Permintaan.........................................................35

5.1.2 Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Metode Linier........................35

5.1.3 Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Metode Kuadratis.................35

5.1.4 Analisis Peramalan Permintaan Metode Eksponensial.............35

5.2 Analisis Perhitungan Error Peramalan..............................................36

5.2.1 Analisis Perhitungan Error Peramalan Metode SSE................36

5.2.2 Analisis Perhitungan Error Peramalan Metode MAPE...........36

5.3 Analisis Verifikasi Peramalan...........................................................37

BAB VI : Penutup

6.1 Kesimpulan........................................................................................38

6.2 Saran..................................................................................................38

Daftar Pustaka

Lampiran

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