Nama : Ayu Saraswati NIM : 1814190053

Tahun x x2 xy
2010 0 0 0
2011 1 1 7.600.000
2012 2 4 16.400.000
2013 3 9 29.400.000
2014 4 16 42.000.000
2015 5 25 62.500.000
2016 6 36 90.000.000
Jumlah 21 91 247.900.000

Metode Least Square pada perhitungan forecast penjualan :

n xy   x  y  y  b  x 
b a
n x 2   x 
2 n  n 
 
70.000.000 21
7 (247.900.000) – (21) (70.000.000) a= – 1.353.571,429
b= 7 7
7 (91) − (21)2
a = 10.000.000 – 4.060.714,287 = 5.939.285,713
1.735.300.000−1.470.000.000 265.300.000
b= = = 1.353.571,429
637−441 196

Y = a + bX = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429 X

Forecast Penjualan Tahun 2017 :

Y = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429X = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429 (7) = 15.414.285,716

Metode Moment pada perhitungan forecast penjualan :

Tahun x x2 xy
2010 0 0 0
2011 1 1 7.600.000
2012 2 4 16.400.000
2013 3 9 29.400.000
2014 4 16 42.000.000
2015 5 25 62.500.000
2016 6 36 90.000.000
Jumlah 21 91 247.900.000

 y  n.a  b x  xy  a x  b x 2

70.000.000 = 7a + 21b (x 3) 70.000.000 = 7a + 21b

247.900.000 = 21a + 91b (-) (x 1) 70.000.000 = 7a + 21 (1.353.571,429)

210.000.000 = 21a + 63b 70.000.000 = 7a + 28.425.000,09

247.900.000 = 21a + 91b (-) 41.574.999,991 = 7a

37.900.000 = 28b >>> b = 1.353.571,429 a = 5.939.285,713

Y = a + bX = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429 X

Forecast Penjualan Tahun 2017 :

Y = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429X = 5.939.285,713 + 1.353.571,429 (7) = 15.414.285,716