ME-3036

Perubahan Iklim

Climate Modeling
+

McGuffie, K. and Ann Henderseon-

Sellers.A Climate Modelling
Primer.THIRD EDITION. (2005)
 Overview:
+ Climate System (1)
 Istilah “iklim” pengertiannya luas
 Tergantung sudut pandang disiplin ilmu, contoh:
 Geology: pengaruh eksternal yang mendorong berbagai
fenomena yg dikaji
 Agrikultur: kondisi “normal” dari cuaca dari tahun ke
tahun atau dari hari ke hari
 dll
 Tergantung dari skala spasial
 Global, regional, lokal
 Tergantung dari skala waktu kajian
 Millenium, abad, dekade, dll

 Tergantung dari tiga hal di atas, iklim dipahami

sebagai feature dari keseluruhan sistem iklim yang
paling penting bagi kajian yang dilakukan
 Overview:
+ Climate System (2)
The Climate Cube:

Climate Cube. Iklim dpat dipandang secara

umum berada dalam tiga domain:
waktu,ruang dan persepsi manusia.

Disini ditunjukkan satu dari banyak

kemungkinan pembagian domain-domain
tersebut.

Secara historis, disiplin-disiplin ilmu

spesifik hanya membahas satu “sel” saja.

Sistim iklim secara keseluruhan dan

interaksi antar domain belum begitu
dipahami.
A Climate Modelling Primer, Third
Edition. K. McGuffie and A.
Henderson-Sellers. (2005)
 Overview:
+ Climate System (3)
 Secara luas iklim dapat didefinisikan sebagai:

‘semua statistik yang menjelaskan atmosfer dan laut dalam satu

rentang waktu (musim, dekade, atau lebih panjang), yang dihitung
untuk seluruh bumi atau wilayah tertentu’

 Variabel statistik yang sering digunakan: Variance (variabilitas)

dan Mean (rata-rata)

 Perubahan iklim: perbedaan antara dua kondisi iklim berdasarkan

variabel statistik tersebut:
 Overview:
+ Climate System (4)

Sistem iklim didefinisikan sebagai:

 Oleh Global Atmospheric Research
Programme (GARP) : atmosfer, hidrosfer,
cryosfer, geosfer dan biosfer.
 Oleh United Nation’s Framework
Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) :
‘the totality of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, biosphere and geosphere
and their interactions’
 Overview:
+ Climate System (5)
+ Energy budget
Important Cycles

Carbon cycle

Hydrological cycle
+
Climate Change vs Climate
Variability

 Climate variability – The way climate fluctuates yearly

above or below a long-term average value.

 Climate change – Long-term continuous change (increase

or decrease) to average weather conditions or the range of
weather.  New Normal!!

 Climatological normal – 30-year average of a weather

variable.

Natural Climate Change vs

Anthropogenic Climate Change ??
+
How do they do that?
How does the IPCC know
what is going to happen?

Our best means of anticipating

climate change is by means of

computer climate models.

+ A Physical Model

The “real thing”

Airfix Model
 A Mathematical Model:
The Population Explosion
Observation

Prediction Model
+
Climate Models

• The climate system is enormously complex

• Climate models are amongst the most

complex models in all of science

• Climate models are based on fluid

mechanics and thermodynamics
+ The Atmospheric Equations

• The Navier-Stokes Equations

• The Continuity Equation

• Continuity Equation for Water

• The Thermodynamic Equation

• The Equation of State

(Boyle/Charles)
+
The Basis of Climate Modelling

Newton’s Law of Motion

F = ma
T
h
e
r
m
o
d
y
n
a
m
i
c
s
 Source term
 Bjerknes’ 1904 Manifesto

To predict future states of the atmosphere.

We need:

1. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of

the initial state of the atmosphere

2. A sufficiently accurate knowledge of the

laws of physics governing its behaviour.
 Lewis Fry Richardson
(1881–1953)

Richardson computed by
hand the pressure change at
a single point.

It took him two years !

His ‘forecast’ was a

catastrophic failure:

Δp = 145 hPa in 6 hours

 ENIAC
Electronic Numerical Integrator and Computer

The first multipurpose programmable electronic digital computer

• 18,000 valves
• 70,000 resistors
• 10,000 capacitors
• 6,000 switches
• 140 kWatts power
 Computing Speed over 60 years
(in floating point operations per second)
Computer Forecasting Skill
[The longest verification series in existence]
Computational Grid
+ Elements of the Climate System

• The atmosphere
• The ocean
• The cryosphere
• The geosphere
• The biosphere
There are interactions between these sub-systems

All these sub-systems are represented in modern

Earth System Models
+
Weather vs Climate Model

 Weather models are used to predict specific weather events

 start with the initial conditions and simulate how those conditions
will evolve with time.
 initial conditions problem
 the goal is to predict weather with enough accuracy to help those
who may be affected by it.

 Climate models are used to generate the statistics of weather

phenomena
 not to predict the time and place at which the phenomena will
occur.
 not dependent on initial atmospheric conditions
 boundary condition problem
+
Initial condition vs Boundary
condition problem
 Initial conditions are the starting point, the initial state of
variables like wind, temperatures, pressure, moisture, etc

 Boundary conditions, in contrast, are values prescribed by

the modeler, eg: intensity of solar radiation, composition of
the atmosphere, etc.

 Weather depends on initial conditions, while climate on

decadal and longer time scales depends primarily on
boundary conditions.
+ Boundary condition of climate
model
Natural Forcing:
+ Boundary condition of climate
model
Athropogenic Forcing:
+ Boundary condition of climate
model
Athropogenic Forcing:
+
CLIMATE MODEL

Hierarchy of Complexity of Climate Models

Neelin J.D. Climate Chane and Climate Modeling (2011)

+ Current Climate Modeling
AO-GCM
Illustration of the
basic characteristics
and processes within
an AOGCM, showing
the manner in which
the atmosphere and
ocean are split into
columns.

Both atmosphere and

ocean are modelled
as a set of interacting
columns distributed
across the Earth’s
surface
 +

Short
term
climate
prediction

Sumber: Climate Prediction

and Agriculture, M.V.K.
Sivakumar
(WMO)
+ UNCERTAINTIES IN CLIMATE
CHANGE PREDICTIONS
 Projections of future emissions
 Initial climate conditions
 Natural and human climate factors
 Realism of the climate model
 feedbacks
 resolution
 extremes of climate
+
Parameterisation

We have to represent a wide range of processes occurring on scales smaller

than the resolution of the models.

• Convective and stratiform clouds

• Infrared and visible radiation
• The topography of the Earth's surface
• Atmospheric turbulence on many scales.
+
Sub Grid Scales Process and
Parameterization
Evolution
+ of Climate Model
Features of the models

early 1990s

1996 2001 2007

Resolutions of the models

+
Climate Model Components
+ Atmospheric Model
+ Ocean Model
+ Land Model
+ Ice Model
+ Future Directions of Climate
Models
+ Future Directions of Climate
Models