Weekly Mortgage Newsletter

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Mortgage rates moved slightly higher last week on international inflation concerns and reduced fears
Week of regarding international situations. Analysts are now expecting the Bank of England, similar to the US
March 27, Federal Reserve, to raise interest rates in the UK following a report of increasing prices. While the
2011 nuclear crisis continues in Japan, it appears the market has absorbed it impact to this point. Also,
there is some easing of concerns over the military action in Libya. Stock markets rallied during the
week, pulling money out of Treasuries, and helping push some interest rates upward.
Mortgage This week has some big economic reports due that could set a directional trend for mortgage rates for
Market the next few weeks. Consumer Confidence is due, and is expected to dip. If it does not, mortgage
Commentary rates will likely continue upward, especially if Friday’s employment data and ISM Index come in with
positive readings. Of course, with so many major international items in play, we could easily have
some news that generates uncertainty in the market, and rates might move back downward.
This Week’s Top Economic Reports and Events 30Yr 15Yr 1Yr ARM

Mortgage Rates
Report/Event Date Prior Est. Impact
PCE Prices - Core 3/28 0.1% 0.2% Moderate 5.00%

After last week’s international inflation concerns, any reading over 0.2% 4.50%
will likely create some moderate upward pressure on mortgage rates. 4.00%
Consumer Confidence 3/29 70.4 65.0 Significant 3.50%
With measures of consumer attitudes slipping, a larger-than-expected 3.00%
drop in Confidence would generate some downward pressure on rates. 1/6 1/20 2/3 2/17 3/3 3/17
12,500.00
Unemployment Rate 4/1 8.9% 8.9% Significant
Dow Jones

With so many signs that the economy is gaining a firmer footing, a drop 12,250.00

in the unemployment rate would help pressure mortgage rates up quickly.

12,000.00

Nonfarm Payrolls 4/1 192K 185K Significant

11,750.00
If the unemployment rate drops and more jobs were created than
expected last month, mortgage rates will experience upward pressure. 11,500.00
30-Dec 13-Jan 27-Jan 10-Feb 24-Feb 10-Mar 24-Mar
ISM Manufacturing Index 4/1 61.4 61.4 Significant
9.00
With manufacturing continuing to power much of the recovery, an
Historical Rates

unexpected drop would likely create some downward pressure on rates. 6.00

Mortgage Rate Interest Rates and Indexes

3.00
Trends 1 Yr T-Bill 0.230% 11th D. COFI 1.484%
Short-Term ÎÎ 10 Yr T-Note 3.290% COSI 2.220% 0.00
Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10
Long-Term ÎÎ 6 Month Libor 0.460% CODI 0.327% 1 Yr CMT MTA COFI
CODI Prime
Volatility High Prime Rate 3.250% MTA 0.307%
10 Year Treasury Note Trend
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