Impacts of Climate Change on Canola Cropping in Victoria

Babu Ram Pandey, Student ID. 318294

INTRODUCTION

The climate change is going to be a major challenge of food production in future. The global
warming caused by higher atmospheric CO2 levels due to human activities will have several
impacts on existing crops. Several effects of elevated CO2 on climatic parameter have already
been experienced worldwide and in Australia. The main effects are rising temperatures,
changing rainfall pattern, reducing frost incidence, increased evaporation etc. The existing
crop plants are going to be affected by these changes in climatic parameters.

Australia grows more than a million hectares of oilseed Brassicas each year mainly canola
(Brassica napus) with a small amount of juncea canola (B. juncea). Australia exports the
second largest quantity of canola exceeding 1 million tonnes every year and it is the third
largest broad acre crop after wheat and barley (AOF, 2010). Besides export income, canola is
an important crop to improve the yield and sustainability of wheat and legumes in cropping
rotations. Norton (2003) reported beneficial effects of canola on wheat yields as part of a
rotation, for the winter cropping belt of southern Australia. Several researchers in Australia
have demonstrated that wheat following canola has a 20% yield benefit over wheat following
wheat by reducing weeds and minimizing cereal root diseases like take-all (Edward and
Haagensen, 2010). Recently released Australian canola cultivars have a reputation for
improved oil and protein content compared to those released in past decades (Mailer, 1999).
In Victoria 221 kilo tones of canola was produced on 196 kilo hectares in 2008, which was
the second largest canola production after WA (ABS Agricultural Commodities, Australia,
cat no. 7121.0).

LIKELY PROJECTED CHANGES

Canola is a winter crop sown in May/June and harvested in November/December. Canola

growth and yield attributes are mainly affected by climatic parameters during winter and
spring. Therefore, changes in temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and evapotranspiration
during these periods are discussed in this report. This report uses medium emissions scenario
and 50th percentile estimates to discuss the changes in climatic variables in Victoria in 2050.
The projections were developed using a model developed by CSIRO available at
www.climatechangeinaustrali.com.au.

Temperature

Temperature change projections relative to 1990 baseline are variable depending on emission
scenarios during both the seasons (Figure 1). There will be smaller changes (1-1.50C) in
winter than in spring (1-20C) under medium emission scenarios. The changes during winter
are shown to be uniform while coastal areas will receive smaller changes in spring than the
inner parts of the state. Similar projections were reported by Suppiah et al. (2004).

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Figure 1. Victoria temperature change in 2050 (50th Percentile). The first, the second and the
third columns present low, medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively.

Rainfall

The projections show variations in changes depending on the emission scenarios. The
medium emissions scenarios present almost uniform changes throughout the state. Projected
rainfalls in 2050 tend to decrease throughout the state. The rainfall decline in spring will be
twice of that in winter. It will range from 5-10% in winter and 10-20 % in spring (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Victoria rainfall change in 2050 (50th Percentile). The first, the second and the third
columns present low, medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively.

Relative Humidity

Projected relative humidity (RH), like temperature and rainfall, varies depending on the
emission scenarios. RH is also likely to be lower in 2050 than in 1990 over the state. Under
medium emissions scenario, RH will change by +0.5% to -3% in winter and up to -4% in
spring. The projected change in RH tends to be more uniform in spring.

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Figure 3. Victoria Relative humidity change in 2050 (50th Percentile). The first, the second
and the third columns present low, medium and high emissions scenarios, respectively.

Potential Evapotranspiration

The potential evapotranspiration (PET) accounts for all the water evaporated from soil and
transpired from plant canopy when water availability is not a limitation. It indicates the
ability of the environmental conditions to remove water away from the plant and soil. The
overall projected PET tends to increase over the state; however, it will vary depending on
emission scenarios and the regions in the state. PET will increase more in winter than in
spring. Winter PET is projected to go up by 8 to >16% while spring RH will go up only by 2
to 8%.

Figure 4. Victoria potential evapotranspiration change in 2050 (50th Percentile). The first, the
second and the third columns present low, medium and high emissions scenarios,
respectively.

CLMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Rising CO2 concentrations alone has been shown to have positive impacts on plant growth
and development. There were complex interactions between aspects of climate change on
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crop systems in Western Australia (Ludwig and Asseng, 2006). The effects of higher
temperatures, elevated CO2 and changed rainfall differ significantly with soil types and
locations. Higher temperatures combined with the lower rainfalls can affect several plant
physiological processes. The expected changes in temperature and rainfall, particularly in
spring, can result in shorter filling periods, small seeds, reduced number of pods and seeds.

Heat stress

Canola is susceptible to heat stress. High temperatures can cause sterility of both male and
female floral parts. Pollen viability under field conditions in Australia is short because of
high temperatures and low RH during flowering time (Salisbury, 2006). Further increase in
temperatures and reductions in RH in spring might reduce the pollen viability drastically
resulting in poor seed setting. Higher temperatures not only reduces yield but also reduces oil
content (Potter et al., 1999). Though plants are less sensitive to heat stress at pod set than at
flowering, heat stress has been demonstrated at lower temperatures when there is drought
(Canola Council of Canada, 2006). The combination of heat and drought stress can result in
sterile and deformed pods.

Moisture stress

Canola growth and seed yield depends on water availability to the crop. Water availability is
an important limitation in Australia, at least during seed maturation. Canola is grown in areas
with 325 to 700 mm annual rainfall. North West of Victoria is too dry to successfully grow
canola while eastern part generally is too wet (see Figure 5). Middle parts of the state have
favourable rainfall for canola growth. The projected decline particularly in spring (10-20%,
Figure 2) is likely to make the dry margins unfavourable for canola production. The areas
including Horsham, Charlton and Echuca might not support successful canola production by
2030 due to insufficient spring rains. In contrast, canola cropping could be expanded towards
wet margins due to decline in rainfall. Lower yields were highly correlated with the higher
temperatures and the lower precipitations in Saskatchewan, Canada (Kutcher et al., 2010).

Water and heat stresses can be worsened by lower relative humidity (Figure 3) and higher
potential evapotranspiration (Figure 4) during the growing season. Under these
circumstances, water loss from plant and soil can be rapid resulting in intense abiotic stresses.
Elevated CO2 concentration can attenuate the effects of drought but it is highly uncertain to
say whether there will be beneficial effect of elevated CO2 under such multiple stress
conditions.

Nutrient stress

Canola has higher requirements for N, P and S than cereals and other crops (Colton and
Sykes, 1992). Higher photosynthetic efficiency of plants under elevated CO2 concentrations
is likely to increase N demand of the crop plants. Poor N nutrition of canola means poor yield
and protein in the seed.

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Figure 5. Rainfall map of Victoria.

Insects, Pests and Weeds

Under altered environmental conditions, it is likely to arise some new insect, disease and
weeds species or some existing species become severe problems. Biology of insects and
pathogens are directly affected by changes in temperatures, rainfalls and relative humidity.
Higher temperatures may favour more number of generations of insects.

The overall effect of climate change is going to be low yield and productivity of cropping
systems. However, the impact of climate change will vary depending upon scale of climate
change and the area where it happens. Eastern parts of the state are likely to be benefitted
while western parts will be harmed.

The impacts of climate change on canola cropping in Victoria will be reflected in every levels
of our social structure from community to national level. Every farmer will be hit by the
lower productivity of the system. Lower farm profitability will influence not only life of an
individual but also the whole community attached with the canola cropping. Related
industrial sectors will be affected. Victoria being the second largest producer of canola after
WA, it will influence the national export of canola.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS/STRATEGIES

Adaptation strategies are undertaken in order to effectively manage potential risks over
coming decades as the climate changes (Howden et al., 2007). The adaptation technologies
and benefits will vary depending on the severity of climate change impacts in the region. The
projected changes in rainfall, temperature, RH and evapo-transpiration will require different

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levels of adaptation actions from eastern to the western part of the state. Reduction in rainfall
is likely to benefit the eastern regions where current rainfalls are too high for cropping.

There are several strategies available. One or combination of them can be employed
depending upon climate change severity in the region. Climate information can be
successfully used to manage risk. Studies in Queensland indicate that by using seasonal
forecasts in combination with system analyses, farmers can reduce the impact of various
climate risks (Crimp et al., 2006). Farmers can take actions accordingly if they know what the
season is likely to be.

Application of biotechnology or breeding is another sustainable approach to adapt the climate

change. Heat and drought stress would be most important challenges of canola in Victoria.
Higher temperatures could cancel out the benefits derived from elevated CO2. It was
estimated that, in absence of adaptive measures, a 1.5-2oC increase in mean temperature
would cancel out the grain yield increase in wheat deriving from a CO2 doubling (Howden,
2002). Because the impact of climate change differs with the varieties (genotypes), selection
of varieties best suited for the specific regions can offset the climate change impacts. New
varieties with shorter maturity and better tolerance to heat and water stress can be bred. Some
companies like ‘Evogene’ and ‘Viterra’ have taken initiative to develop such stress tolerant
canola cultivars. Trangenic cultivars are potential option because transfer of drought and heat
stress tolerance has been successful in Arabidopsis.

Current crop management practices should be modified to suit the changing climate.
Temperature would be hotter during the whole growing season but it would be too hot during
filling and maturation stages. Sowing earlier than the current sowing time would protect the
crops from heat stress at the maturation. Changes in other management practices like tillage,
irrigation, fertilizer application and others should be considered.

The crop management changes would not work when the climate change impacts are worse.
Variations in cropping or land use systems might be necessary in such a case. Alternative
crops or farming systems might be appropriate rather than continuing with canola. For
example, rainfalls in Beulah, Kerang and Ouyen might be limiting for a successful cropping
of canola. New crop called juncea canola is an option for the dry environments. The juncea
canola is more vigorous and tolerant to heat and drought stress than canola (Burton et al.,
1999). A few juncea canola varieties (e.g. Dune, Oasis CL and Sahara CL) have been
released and are popular in dry regions. Some even drier regions could be unfit for cropping
and modified to pasture or forestry. Canola cropping could also be moved to wet margins
which would become appropriate for canola as a result of climate change. The areas around
Mansfield, Albury and Beechworth are such potential areas.

Climate change adaptations must be linked to the policy levels. The adaptation strategies
cannot be implemented without relevant policies. Current policies might not support the
adaptation plans to implement. Appropriate policies are necessary to reduce barriers and
prevent mal-adaption. The stake holders should get appropriate financial and policy supports
if the adaptation is going incur some costs. Government supports are required in educating

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farmers about climate change and adaptation technology, infrastructure modification if
needed, efficient agricultural systems, crop insurance etc.

BARRIERS/LIMITS

Climate change adaptation is a social phenomenon. It is not only about the physical climate
science and adaptation technologies. Adaptation incorporates adaptive capacity which
consists of regionally specific socioeconomic and other factors (Barlow et al. Unpublished).
There are certain barriers that must be addressed to make the adaptations timely and
effective.

Social barriers are obvious as the adaptation is going to happen in society. The society may
not be ready to adopt the adaptation techniques. Farmers must be trained about the climate
change, its impact on their cropping and possible benefits from adaptations.

Cost incurred with the adaptation is very important in decision making. The farmers may
need financial support from the government for equipments like zero till planters and
infrastructures like irrigation and drainage. Similar sort of supports might be necessary for
those who have to alter their cropping or land use systems.

Institutional barriers may appear because many organizations are involved in the adaptation.
The organizations include research institutes, extension agencies, policy formulation bodies,
financial organizations etc. Limitations might arise from all the organizations. For example,
research organizations have challenge of precise climate change information and adaptation
techniques. Extension agencies require trained manpower to extend the technologies to the
farming community. Similarly, financial institutions might have challenges to invest to
support the adaptations.

Some barriers in relation to appropriate policy to implement the adaptation plans are
expected. If policy makers failed to make proper policies to address the future climate
change, it would be probably the biggest hurdle to a successful adaptation.

CONCLUSION

A climate model developed by CSIRO was used to project climate variables in Victoria in
2050. Temperature, rainfall, relative humidity (RH) and evapo-transpiration in winter and
spring were projected using medium emission scenarios and 50th percentile estimates.
Temperature has been projected to increase throughout Victoria while the rainfall has been
projected to be lower in the state in 2050 relative to 1990. Slightly low relative humidity and
higher evapo-transpiration are expected. All the changes were shown to be more intense in
spring than in winter. In spring, maximum increase in temperature and decline in rainfall
were 2oC and 20%, respectively.

Combined effects of these changes together with higher evapo-transpiration can severely
affect physiological processes of canola. Heat and drought stress are most likely at the
maturation stage of the crop. Premature ripening (short growing period), few number of pods
and seeds, small seeds, deformed pods are most probable effects. There are beneficial effects
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of elevated CO2 in terms of improved photosynthetic efficiency of plants but the heat stress
might counteract them. Nitrogen demand of crop will rise because of improved
photosynthetic efficiency. This might affect the quality in terms of protein and oil content.
Canola yields will decline in western areas of the state (dry margins). Some areas in wet
margins might be suitable for canola production. Less productive systems would impact
negatively from individual farmer to national level.

There are adaptation options available to minimize climate change impacts or to even get
benefitted from the changes in some areas. Climate information beforehand can be used to let
farmers act according to the probable changes. There are crop management techniques like
residue and fertilizer management, tillage and change in sowing time, cultural and
intercultural practices etc which can potentially improve adaptive capacity and even mitigate
emissions. High rainfall areas (500-700 mm annual rainfall) in the middle of the state are
most likely to benefit from these management changes. The areas in dry margins will have to
adopt drought and heat tolerant cultivars together with these changes. Juncea canola and
transgenic cultivars tolerant to such abiotic stresses are the best options in the dry
environments. Shifting to pasture or forestry can be the only option in the areas like western
part of the state where rainfall becomes too low to support canola growth.

All the stake holders from research organizations to extension agencies and farming
community need appropriate policy support to plan and implement adaptation strategies.

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