Paper Faisal Basri - Indonesia Menuju 2030
Paper Faisal Basri - Indonesia Menuju 2030
jpg
Faisal Basri
13 Februari 2018
Outline
I. Menuju 2030: Indonesia di
Kancah Dunia
II. Tampak Luar Sehat,
Upaya Keras: Kerja,
Kerja, Kerja
III. Namun, Mengapa Gerak
Maju Melambat?
IV. Menohok ke Akar Masalah
“In order to do good economics you
V. Menghadapi Era Digital
have to keep in mind that people are
human.” VI. Momentum Jangan Disia-
siakan
--Richard H. Thaler, Nobel Prize winner in Economics
2017 VII. Peta Jalan Menuju 2030
Bagian I
Menuju 2030:
Indonesia di Kancah Dunia
Apa yang hendak kita gapai pada 2030?
1
China 11,199 United States 18,624
2
2
Japan 4,940 India 8,718
3
3
Germany 3,478 Japan 5,267
4
4
United Kingdom 2,648 Germany 4,041
5
5
France 2,465 Russian Federation 3,397
6
6
India 2,264 Brazil 3,147
7
7
Italy 1,859 Indonesia 3,037
8
8
Brazil 1,796 United Kingdom 2,828
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9
20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9
Canada 1,530 France 2,774
Korea, Rep. 1,411 Italy 2,324
Russian Federation 1,283 Mexico 2,280
Spain 1,237 Turkey 1,941
Australia 1,205 Korea, Rep. 1,832
Mexico 1,047 Saudi Arabia 1,760
Indonesia 932 Spain 1,693
Turkey 864 Iran, Islamic Rep. 1,605
Netherlands 777 Canada 1,598
Switzerland 669 Thailand 1,167
Saudi Arabia 646 Australia 1,129
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on January 15, 2018.
Pada 2017 PDB Indonesia telah menembus
USD 1 triliun, di ASEAN tak tertandingi
70. Myanmar 67
106. Cambodia 20
27,600
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000 9,850
8,840
8,260
5,640
5,000
3,400
0
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
China Brazil Indonesia Korea, Rep. Malaysia Thailand
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators online, downloaded on August 31, 2017.
Peringkat Indonesia: penduduk dan media sosial
World rank As of
8 Malaysia
18 7 Philippines
6 USA *
16 5
4
Korea
China *
3 Singapore
14 2
Japan
1
12.1 Thailand *
0
12 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
Source: BPS; World Bank staff calculations Source: BPS; CEIC; World Bank staff* August 2017 data, others July.
calculations
10.1 Source: World Bank.
Note: *August 2017 data; others July.
10 Appendix Figure 15: Domestic and international rice Appendix8.8
Figure 16: Poverty and unemployment rate
prices 8.4
(wholesale price, in IDR per kg) (percent)
8 11,000
7.0 20
0 3,500 4
Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
7
12
5
10
3
Ja 8
5
6
11
9
2
7
12
5
10
3
Ja 8
0
6
11
9
2
7
12
5
10
3
Ja 8
5
6
11
9
2
7
12
4
4
n'0
n'1
n'1
Source: Cipinang wholesale rice market; FAO Source: BPS
Note: “5% broken” refers to the quality of milled rice. 5 percent Note: Poverty line based on national poverty line
being the proportion of grains broken during the processing stage.
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Appendix Figure 17: Regional equity indices Appendix Figure 18: Selected currencies against USD
(daily index, September 1, 2015=100) (monthly index, August 2015=100)
Tekanan darah mereda: suku bunga pasar berangsur
turun merespons pemotongan suku bunga acuan BI
Will the BI governor be nominated for 2nd term?
14
BI 7-day Repo Rate
5.50
13 12.75
5.25
5.50
5.00
4.75
4.75
12 5.00
4.50
4.25
4.25
11
4.50
4.00
Apr'16
5
6
8
9
10
Jan'17
5
6
8
9
10
Jan-18
11
12
11
12
7
2
3
4
7
10
9.50
9
Start of the current Governor
8.00 (May 24, 2013)
8 7.75
7.50 7.50
7.25 7.25
7 6.75 6.75
6.50 6.50
6.50
6 5.75
5
Jul'05
9
11
Jan'06
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'07
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'08
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'09
3
5
7
9
11
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'11
3
5
7
9
11
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'13
3
5
7
8
2
4
6
8
Jan'15
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'16
3
5
7
11-II
10
12
10
Jan'10
Jan'12
06 May
- y
- y
- g
De Aug
- g
- g
- v
09 Nov
22 Nov
10 Nov
31 Dec
08 Sep
Apc-10
02 Sep
22 Sep
13 Dec
- r
19 Feb
05 Jun
- r
15 Jun
24 Feb
- r
17 Feb
Oc Jun
- r
22 Jan
30 Jan
20 Jan
12 Jan
16 Apr
- r
Ju -06
07 Apr
04 Apr
31 Oct
- t
21 Oct
22 t - 0 6
0
10 Jul
16 -27
31 Jul
Oc Jul
19 Ma
28 Ma
16 Ma
10 Ma
03 Ma
12 Ma
09 Au
27 No
19 Ap
02 Oc
29 Au
21 Au
t-3
r
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
l
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
08
8,000
Highest 2/8/11 = Rp 8,460
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500 13 February
Nov. 24-26, 2018 = 13,644
13,000
2008 = 12,400
13,500
14,000
14,500 2018 State Budget
15,000 (APBN-P) assumption September 29,
= Rp 13,400 2015 = 14,728
The lowest since 1998
Source: Bank Indonesia
US$ billions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan'04
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'05
3
5
7
9
11
30.3
Jan'06
(Sep'05)
3
60.6
11
(Jul'08)
Jan'09
50.2
3
(Nov'08)
5
7
9
11
Jan'10
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'11
3
5
7
9
11
124.6
Jan'12
(Aug'11)
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'13
3
5
7
9
92.7
11
(Jul'13)
Jan'14
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'15
3
5
115.5
(Feb'15)
7
9
11
Jan'16
3
5
7
9
11
Jan'17
3
5
Cadangan devisa mencapai angka tertinggi
7
9
sepanjang sejarah, sebagian ditopang utang
11
Jan'18
126.0
132.0
(Nov'17)
(Jan'18)
Stock index had a new record 12 times in 2015,
and 38 times in 2017, 10 times in 2018, but …
6,800
(Jakarta composite index)
6,500 § On February 13, 2018: 6,578.178
6,200 § The highest (January 29, 2018): 6,680.619
5,900
§ year to date à 3.50%
5,600
5,300
§ year on yearà 21.60%
5,000
4,700
4,400
4,100
3,800
3,500
3,200
2,900
2,600
2,300
2,000
1,700
1,400
1,100
800
19 -Sep
14 -Sep
06 Sep
02 Sep
02 Sep
No Aug
08 Sep
15 -Aug
26 -13
26 -Feb
25 Feb
Ju -20
08 Feb
03 Feb
10 eb
15 Feb
-N l
05 -Jul
11 -Jul
-N l
25 Nov
05 ay
04 ay
16 0 5
19 Jan
23 Jun
12 an
17 un
16 Jan
23 Jun
20 Jan
O c Jun
16
03 ec
12 ov
09 ec
Fe ov
20 ov
27 ov
08 Oct
14 pr
18 pr
28 pr
23 pr
07 Apr
05 Apr
Ja -04
01 -Ju
05 -Ju
-A
-A
-A
-A
-M
-M
-F
-D
-D
-N
-N
n-
-J
-J
n-
v
b
t
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
22
Walau tidak spektakuler dibandingkan dengan
kebanyakan Emerging Markets
As of February 7th 2018 (% change on December 30th 2016, in $ terms)
Total export 190.0 182.6 176.0 150.4 145.2 168.7 -6.6 -3.9 -3.4 -14.6 -3.9 16.2
Non-oil and gas 153.1 149.9 146.0 131.8 132.1 153.0 -5.5 -2.0 -2.6 -9.8 -0.3 15.8
Oil and gas 37.0 32.6 30.0 18.6 13.1 15.7 -10.9 -11.8 -7.0 -38.2 -29.4 20.1
Total import 191.7 186.6 178.2 142.7 -135.6 -156.9 8.0 -2.6 -4.5 -19.9 -4.9 15.7
Non-oil and gas 149.1 141.4 134.7 118.1 -116.9 -132.6 9.0 -5.2 -4.7 -12.3 -1.0 13.4
Oil and gas 42.6 45.3 43.5 24.6 -18.7 -24.3 4.6 6.4 -4.0 -43.4 -23.9 29.7
-1
-2
-3
Jan'10
11
Jan'15
11
7
12
10
12
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Rongrongan minyak kambuh kembali
Oil trade account (exports minus imports), billions of USD
Crude oil Oil products Total
18
4
6
0
-4
-11
1988
1989
1990
1995
1996
1998
1999
2000
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2015
2016
1981
1982
1983
1984
1987
1991
1992
1993
1994
1997
2001
2002
2003
2004
2007
2011
2012
2013
2014
2017
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Persepsi luar tentang Indonesia membaik
9.8
9.2 9.1
8.5 8.4
6.3 6.4
5.7
5.0 5.0 5.1
6.1 Pertamina
6.2 6.0
crisis
Global
4.6 4.9
3.5 financial
1.1 Oil price
1.1 crisis
collapse
The -2.3
fall of
Old Order
1963
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1971
1973
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1981
1983
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1991
1993
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2001
2003
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2011
2013
2015
2016
2017
1962
1964
1970
1972
1974
1980
1982
1984
1990
1992
1994
2000
2002
2004
2010
2012
2014
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Tampak kasat mata pertumbuhan kian lambat,
menuju keseimbangan makin rendah
GDP growth, year-on-yer, percent
12
11
10
9
8 8%
7 7%
6 6%
5 5%
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
-12
-13
-14
-15
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2017
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Pendapatan per kapita yang dicapai ketika
bonus demografi berakhir
Kesempatan jangan disia-siakan jika tak ingin
masa tua sengsara
Indonesia: nisbah ketergantungan: ASEAN: Proporsi penduduk usia produktif,
naik lebih cepat daripada waktu turun Indonesia terbesar
51
50.5
Myanmar, Thailand, 7
50.1
8
50
49
48.6
48.4 Lainnya, Indonesia,
11 41
48
47.7
47.3
47.2
47 Vietnam,
46.9 14
46
Philippines,
19
45
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045
Jangan bandingkan jeruk vs. apel—sandingkanlah
dengan ASEAN, bukan G-20: policy responses matter
GDP growth, year-on-year, percent
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018*
Brunei Darussalam -2.1 -2.5 -0.4 -2.5 1.0 2.5
Cambodia 7.4 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1
Indonesia 5.6 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.3
Lao PDR 7.8 7.5 6.7 6.8 6.9 7.0
Malaysia 4.7 6.0 5.0 4.2 4.7 4.6
Myanmar 8.4 8.0 7.3 6.4 7.7 8.0
Philippines 7.1 6.2 5.9 6.8 6.5 6.7
Singapore 4.7 3.6 1.9 2.0 2.4 2.5
Thailand 2.7 0.9 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.6
Vietnam 5.4 6.0 6.7 6.2 6.5 6.7
Memo: ASEAN 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 5.0
* Projections.
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2017, April 2017, and Asian Development Outlook Supplement, July 2017.
https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/237761/ado-2017.pdf
Bahaya complacency
Jantung primer
Theguardian.com
Himpun darah yang berserakan, masukkan ke
dalam sistem peredaran darah
Financial inclusion index
* Developing only.
Source: World Bank, Global Findex Database (http://databank.worldbank.org/Data/Views/reports/tableview.aspx)
Karena stok darah terbatas dan ada pembuluh darah
tersumbat, kapasitas memompakan kembali rendah
Credit penetration in Indonesia is still very low
50
47.9
40
39.4
30
20
10
8.8
0
200 15
150
100 198
75
47
34 21
30 24 19
50
7
55 1 3
54 53 53 47 49
43
28 21 16
0
ia
an
ia
re
am
ia
nd
ne
on
re
in
ys
As
es
po
p
Ch
n
Ko
pi
K
Ja
ail
ala
on
t
et
ga
lip
as
ng
Th
Vi
d
M
Sin
g E
In
Ho
Ph
gin
er
Em
219
Singapore
159.5
129
Malaysia
124.7
88
Thailand
24
82
Philippines
32
74
China
48.5
72
India
31.1
41
Indonesia
16.3
28
Brazil
35.1
27
Vietnam
[]*
2015 2000
41
https://leadrshipfreak.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/turbulent-seas-2.jpg
Jantung sekunder
Theguardian.com
Kemampuan menghimpun pajak merosot
Tax ratio is in decreasing trend
Rp trillion % of GDP
12.0
1,400
11.4 11.5
1,200 11.3
11.2
600
10.0
400
9.5
200
0 9.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sources: Tax revenue from Ministry of Finance; GDP from BPS-Statistics Indonesia..
Size of local currency bonds market: Indonesia is
still lagging behind in the long-term financing
(% of GDP, Q3-2017)
250
200 15
150
100 198
75
47
34 21
30 24 19
50
7
55 1 3
54 53 53 47 49
43
28 21 16
0
ia
an
ia
re
am
ia
nd
ne
on
re
in
ys
As
es
po
p
Ch
n
Ko
pi
K
Ja
ail
ala
on
t
et
ga
lip
as
ng
Th
Vi
d
M
Sin
g E
In
Ho
Ph
gin
er
Em
T 15
10
all 5
0
ed,
ax
2.0
1.4 1.5
1.5
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.0
Agriculture Construction Trade Mining Industry Finance
Theguardian.com
Tradable merana, non-tradable melaju
Share
Sectors 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 2017
Agriculture, forestry & fishery 4.24 3.77 3.25 3.81 7.12 3.33 2.92 2.24 13.14
Mining and Quarrying 0.43 -3.42 1.06 0.69 -0.64 2.24 1.76 0.08 7.57
Manufacturing industry 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.27 4.24 3.54 4.84 4.46 20.16
Electricity and gas 5.90 0.90 5.39 1.54 1.60 -2.53 4.88 2.27 1.19
Water, waste management, cesspit and recycling 5.24 7.07 3.60 4.61 4.39 3.67 4.83 5.53 0.07
Construction 6.97 6.36 5.22 6.79 5.95 6.96 7.13 7.23 10.38
Wholesale&retail trade, car&motorcycle reparations 5.18 2.59 3.93 4.44 4.96 3.78 5.50 4.47 13.01
Transportation and warehousing 7.36 6.68 7.74 8.49 8.03 8.37 8.27 8.21 5.41
Accommodation, food and beverages 5.77 4.31 4.94 5.55 4.68 5.07 4.96 5.49 2.85
Information and communication 10.12 9.69 8.87 9.81 9.13 10.88 9.35 8.99 3.80
Finance and insurance 4.68 8.59 8.90 5.48 5.99 5.94 6.44 3.85 4.20
Real estate 5.00 4.11 4.30 3.68 3.67 3.86 3.64 3.73 2.79
Business services 9.81 7.69 7.36 8.44 6.80 8.14 9.24 9.25 1.75
Public adm., defense, and compulsory social security 2.38 4.63 3.19 2.06 0.22 -0.03 0.43 6.95 3.70
Education 5.47 7.33 3.84 3.66 4.09 0.90 3.70 5.89 3.29
Health and social activities 7.96 6.68 5.00 6.79 7.10 6.40 7.44 6.31 1.07
Other services 8.93 8.08 7.80 8.66 8.01 8.63 9.45 8.87 1.76
Gross domestic product 5.01 4.88 5.02 5.07 5.01 5.01 5.06 5.19 100.00
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Growth of manufacturing industries, 2011-17
Average
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2011-16 2017
GDP Total 6.17 6.03 5.56 5.08 4.88 5.02 5.46 5.07
Manufacturing, Total 6.26 5.62 4.37 4.64 4.33 4.29 4.92 4.27
Non-oil & gas manufacturing 7.46 6.98 5.45 5.61 5.05 4.42 5.83 4.84
Coal and Refined Petroleum Products -0.33 -2.40 -2.64 -2.12 -1.13 3.24 -0.90 -0.32
Food Products and Beverages 10.98 10.33 4.07 9.49 7.54 8.46 8.48 9.23
Tobacco Products -0.23 8.82 -0.27 8.33 6.24 1.64 4.09 -0.84
Textiles and Wearing Apparel 6.49 6.04 6.58 1.56 -4.79 -0.13 2.63 3.76
Leather & Related Products & Footware 10.94 -5.43 5.23 5.62 -3.97 8.15 3.42 2.22
Wood & of its products (except furniture) -2.72 -0.80 6.19 6.12 -1.63 1.80 1.49 0.13
Paper & Paper Products; Repro of Recorded 3.89 -2.89 -0.53 3.58 -0.16 2.16 1.01 0.33
Chem & Pharma & Botanical Products 8.66 12.78 5.10 4.04 7.61 5.48 7.28 4.53
Rubber & Plastics Products 2.08 7.56 -1.86 1.16 5.04 -8.34 0.94 2.47
Non-Metallic Mineral 7.78 7.91 3.34 2.41 6.03 5.46 5.49 -0.86
Manufacture of Basic Metals 13.56 -1.57 11.63 6.01 6.21 0.76 6.10 5.87
Computer, Optical Products & Elec.Equip 8.79 11.64 9.22 2.94 7.83 4.34 7.46 2.79
Machinery and Equipment 8.53 -1.39 -5.00 8.67 7.58 5.05 3.91 5.55
Transport Equipment 6.37 4.26 14.95 4.01 2.40 4.52 6.09 3.68
Furniture 9.93 -2.15 3.64 3.60 5.17 0.47 3.44 3.71
Other Manuf, Repair & Instr of Machinery -1.09 -0.38 -0.70 7.65 4.66 -2.91 1.21 -1.72
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Pertumbuhan kurang berkualitas: sektor
tradable versus sektor non-tradable
10
Percent
5.1
4 4.6 4.7
3.9 3.9 3.8 3.7
3.7 3.6
3.5 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.5
Tradable
2 2.6 2.7
2.2
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Sudah 13 tahun pertumbuhan manufaktur lebih
rendah dari pertumbuhan PDB
25
20
15
10
5 5.1
4.3
-5
-10
-15
Indonesia-mfg Indonesia-gdp
* January-June
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Pangsa manufaktur turun sebelum mencapai
titik optimal dan lebih cepat dari negara jiran
Manufacturing value added as % of GDP
45
40.1
40
37.8
35
29.7
30 29.3
28.0
25
20 20.2
Indonesia: premature
15 industrialization?
10
East Asia & Pacific (exc. high income) Indonesia Korea, Rep. China
* Q1-Q3 (January-September).
Sources: World Bank and BPS-Statistics Indonesia
Kualitas pembentukan modal pun rendah:
didominasi bangunan, bukan mesin & peralatan
Composition of fixed capital formation, percent
Average
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011-15 2016 2017
Machinery & equipment 11.4 11.7 11.2 10.2 9.6 10.8 9.0 10.5
Other equipments 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.8
Cultivated biological
resources 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.4
Intellectual property
products 2.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.2
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
https://leadrshipfreak.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/turbulent-seas-2.jpg
Wajah agak pucat pasi karena enggan
berjemur di sinar matahari: kurang gaul
Theguardian.com
Semakin menutup diri: degree of openness—
(X + M)*/GDP
Population Exports (X) Imports (M) X + M
Country (mil. 2016) 1981 2016 1981 2016 1981 2016
China 1,378.7 7.5 19.6 7.5 17.4 15.0 37.0
India 1,324.2 5.8 19.2 8.4 20.6 14.2 39.8
United States 323.1 9.5 **12.6 9.9 **15.4 19.4 **28.0
Indonesia 261.1 29.0 19.1 24.0 18.3 53.0 37.4
Brazil 207.7 9.4 12.5 9.8 12.1 19.2 24.6
Japan 127.0 14.4 **17.6 13.7 **18.0 28.1 **35.6
Philippines 103.3 23.8 28.0 27.2 36.9 51.0 64.9
Vietnam 92.7 ***36.0 93.6 ***45.3 91.1 ***81.3 ***184.7
Germany 82.7 20.2 46.0 24.1 38.4 44.3 84.4
Thailand 68.9 23.8 68.9 30.1 54.2 53.9 123.1
United Kingdom 65.6 25.4 28.1 22.5 30.0 47.9 58.1
South Africa 55.9 28.4 30.3 30.4 30.2 58.8 60.5
Korea, Rep. 51.2 32.1 42.2 37.2 35.4 69.3 77.6
Malaysia 31.2 51.6 67.2 57.7 60.8 109.3 128.0
Netherlands 17.0 55.9 80.8 51.2 69.9 107.1 150.7
Sweden 9.9 28.7 44.4 28.1 39.8 56.8 84.2
Hongkong SAR, China 7.3 91.1 187.4 92.6 185.2 183.7 372.6
Denmark 5.7 36.1 53.1 34.9 46.2 71.0 99.3
Singapore 5.6 198.2 172.1 201.6 146.3 399.8 318.4
* Exports and imports of goods and services. **2015 ***1990
Source: World Bank: for population downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=SP.POP.TOTL&country= on August 14, 2017;
for exports downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS&country= on August 14, 2017; and for imports
downloaded from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=2&series=NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS&country= on August 14, 2017.
Sudah berlangsung lama, padahal negara maritim:
degree of openness Indonesia, 1981-2016
Percent of GDP
67.8
61.2
52.5
51.8
49.4
47.6
45.2
37.4
36.6
33.7
31.1
27.7
27.5
26.7
25.7
25.2
24.7
23.9
23.7
23.7
23.4
21.8
19.1
18.3
1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-2000 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016
Source: World Bank: for exports downloaded from http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS); and for imports downloaded from
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.IMP.GNFS.ZS. Downloaded on August 14, 2017.
Manufaktur melempem, akibatnya struktur ekspor
rapuh: selected top-30 merchandise exporters
2016 Growth Manufactures exports
(2010) Value (Billion US$) Share (%)
(%) as % of merchandise
Rank Country 2016 2010 2016 2010 2010-16 exports, 2016
1 (1) China 2,098 1,278 13.2 9.6 95 94
2 (2) United States 1,455 1,057 9.1 8.5 53 62
3 (3) Germany 1,340 1,121 8.4 9.0 34 83
4 (4) Japan 645 581 4.0 4.7 18 88
5 (5) Netherlands 570 364 3.6 2.9 57 86
6 (11) Hong Kong, China 517 330 3.2 2.6 59 70
8 (7) Korea, Republic of 495 270 3.1 2.2 52 71
14 (14) Singapore 330 175 2.1 1.4 106 n.a
18 (16) Chinese Taipei 280 189 1.8 1.5 87 11
19 (19) United Arab Emirates 266 155 1.7 1.2 108 64
20 (20) India 264 204 1.7 1.6 54 99
21 (25) Thailand 215 157 1.3 1.3 49 62
24 (23) Malaysia 189 152 1.2 1.2 50 76
26 (39) Viet Nam 177 120 1.1 1.0 47 38
27 (17) Saudi Arabia 175 131 1.1 1.0 25 73
30 (27) Indonesia 145 158 0.9 1.3 -8.2 48
Sources: World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2011 and 2017; and World Bank, World Development Indicators database.
Bagian V
Menghadapi Era Digital
Robot sudah hadir 50 tahun lebih gantikan
pekerjaan manusia: mengapa takut?
Knowledge 58
Talent 48
Overall & factors
Training & education 59
Scientific concentration 54
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Technology 56
Overall 58 57 60 60 59 Regulatory framework 61
Capital 37
Knowledge 58 57 60 60 58 Technological framework 58
46.3
42.5
41.6
Joko Widodo
37.8
Prabowo Subianto
36.3
Gatot Nurmantyo
33.1
32.8
31.8
31.0
Others
29.6
28.6
28.3
23.9
23.6
23.4
22.1
22.1
18.2
17.3
17.3
16.5
16.3
16.3
14.3
13.8
11.3
10.9
8.6
3.3
1.1
Politics and security 73.1 69.3 69.6 75.9 75.0 71.2 76.4
Source: https://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2018/01/daily-chart-7
Bagian VII
Peta Jalan Menuju 2030
Kembali ke jatidiri dan basis keunggulan
Source: https://www.recode.net/2017/5/26/15656120/manufacturing-jobs-automation-ai-us-increase-
robot-sales-reshoring-offshoring
Dengan sentuhan warisan budaya Nusantara
Radio transistor teknologi tahun 1960-
an dikemas ulang dengan casing
sentuhan budaya Nusantara: dari Rp
300 ribu menjadi USD300 (13X lipat) Music box dengan alunan lagu Bengawan
Solo.
Source: Hausmann
Example of Global Value Chains (pre
Example of global value chains: ipod/Aplle
maturation)
• The case of iPod (Linden et al, 2009), iPhone (Xing and
Detert, 2010), iPad (Linden et al, 2011) show that most
Box 2. The balance of trade in gross and value-added terms (the iPhone example continued)
Upstream
For 10 input
supplier
ipods
Assembly
65
er SCIENCE
Economic growth by island: Eastern Indonesia is
slowing down, but Sulawesi is the highest
2015: 1.3%
2016: 2.%
2017: 4.3%
Share : 8.2% 2015: 8.2% 2015: 6.6%
2015 : 3.5% 2016: 7.4%
2017 2016: 7.5%
2016 : 4.3% 2017: 7.0%
2017 : 4.3% 2017: 4.9%
Share : 6.1% Share: 2.4%
Share : 21.7% 2017
2017 2017
2015: 5.5%
2016: 5.6%
2017: 5.6% 2015: 10.3%
Share : 58.5% 2016: 5.9%
2017 2017: 3.7%
Share : 3.1%
2017
Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia.
Memilih menu yang tepat dan perkuat institusi
• Peradaban berkembang
di tingkat kota.
• Kota à city à civility
àcivilization.
• Pemerintahan kota
melayani langsung
masyarakat, ujung
tombak pelayanan.
• Cakupannya lebih kecil,
sehingga target
kebijakan lebih fokus
• Inovasi langsung bisa
diterapkan.
Terima Kasih
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