EMERGING ASIA ECONOMICS

VIETNAM MONTHLY CHARTBOOK

11 MARCH 2011 KEY INTEREST RATES WERE RAISED AGAIN AND AGAIN
WHILE INFLATION SURGED FURTHER

CONTRIBUTORS
• The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) substantially raised its key interest
rates in the last three weeks:
Hai Pham
Analyst, Mekong Economics ƒ The refinancing rate was raised twice in Feb to 11% and again in
+65 6216 1968 Mar to 12%, from 9% previously.
Hai.Pham@anz.com
ƒ The rediscounting rate was raised to 12% from 7% previously.
Paul Gruenwald
Chief Economist, Asia ƒ The 7-day reverse repo rate was raised by 100bps to 12% in Feb.
+65 6216 1814
Paul.Gruenwald@anz.com • CPI inflation climbed to 12.3% (y/y) in Feb and is likely to rise
further on higher domestic electricity and fuel prices and mounting
pressures from global oil prices. However, inflation momentum
appears to have peaked in Jan.
• Feb export and import growth fell, and the trade deficit widened
slightly to $950mn.
• Going forward, inflation pressures still persist and we expect further
tightening measures will be implemented this year.

CHARTS OF THE MONTH

20 Vietnam - Interest Rates 13 Vietnam - Interest Rates
(%pa) (% pa)
18 12
16
11
14
10
12
9
10
8
8
6 7

4 6
Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
SBV Refinancing Rate SBV Discounting Rate VNIBOR O/N Interbank deposit rate SBV 7-day reverse repo rate

24 Vietnamese dong - Implied NDF Discount 21.5 40 Vietnam - Inflation 4

(%)
20 21.0
30 3
20.5
16
20.0 20 2
12
19.5
10 1
8
19.0
4 0 0
18.5

0 18.0 -10 -1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
12m-NDF Discount 1m-NDF Discount
C PI y/y C PI 3m/3m, saar C PI m/m (RHS)
USD-VNDths (RHS)
 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 2 of 11

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: GROWTH MOMENTUM FELL QUICKLY

• Industrial production (IP) grew 17.7% (y/y) in Feb, up from 16.1% in Jan. However, industrial output fell
16.3% in Feb, and growth momentum dropped to 7.0% (3m/3m, saar) from 15.7% in Jan. Slower
growth momentum suggests that IP will moderate going forward.
• In terms of growth, the foreign invested (FDI) sector overtook the domestic sector, rising 20.0% and
contributing 7.3% to total IP growth. The domestic non-state sector grew 18.4% and the state
sector 12.1%.
• In terms of industry, Feb cement production experienced strong growth of 17.8% (y/y, 3mma), while
growth in crude oil production declined. Meanwhile, the slowdown in IP growth momentum was driven by
coal, crude oil, garments and steel production.
40 Vietnam - Industrial Production 80 Vietnam - Industrial Production by Sector
90
(y/y)
30 60 75
60
20 40
45
10 20 30

0 0 15
0
-10 -20
-15
-20 -40 -30
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
ytd y/y y/y 3m/3m, saar (RHS) State Non-State Foreign Invested

Vietnam - Industrial Production -Mining and Vietnam - Industrial Production- Manufacturing

Quarrying (y/y, 3mma)
45 80
(y/y, 3mma)
35
60
25
40
15
20
5
0
-5
-15 -20

-25 -40
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
C oal C rude Oil Garments Steel C ement

STATE INVESTMENT: LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING SURGED

• State investment increased by 84.4% (ytd, y/y) in Feb, led by a 107.3% surge in local government
investment. Separately, spending by the ministry of transport grew the fastest at 17.1%.
Vietnam - State Investment Vietnam - State Investment by Ministry
3500 (VND bn) 300
210 420
175 2800 240

140 280 2100 180

105
1400 120
70 140
35 700 60

0 0 0 0
-35
-700 -60
-70 -140 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Industry Agriculture & Rural Dev
y/y y/y, 3mma 3m/3m, saar (RHS) Transport Total (y/y - RHS)

Sources: CEIC, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011/ 3 of 11

CONSUMPTION: SALES GROWTH EASED

• Retail sales grew 22.1% (y/y) in Feb, down from 26.0% in Jan. Growth was led by sales in the state
sector. Sales in the FDI sector increased by 19.3%, compared with 23.2% in Jan. On a momentum
basis, Feb retail sales growth surged to 7.9% (3m/3m, saar) from 1.7% previously
• Trade sales climbed 26.7% and contributed 21.0% to total y/y sales growth. Sales growth in hotels and
restaurants fell to 18.3% from 22.0% in Jan, while services and tourism sales surged by 19.4%. Month-
on-month sales fell in all industries, with the exception of trade.
• Feb vehicle sales were up 55.6% (y/y), from 49.7% in Jan. However, on a monthly basis, Feb car sales
fell 24.9% (m/m), as the price of cars increased after the dong’s devaluation.

Vietnam - Retail Sales 70 Vietnam - Domestic Retail Sales by Sector

120 (y/y) (y/y, 3mma)
45 60
100
80 35 50
60 25 40
40 15 30
20
5 20
0
-5 10
-20
-40 -15 0
-60 -25 -10
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Domestic Foreign Invested Total Retail Sales (RHS) State Private Household

Vietnam - Retail Sales by Industry Vietnam - Retail Sales by Industry

60 (y/y, 3mma) (3m/3m, saar)
90 900
50
75 750
40
60 600
30 45 450
20 30 300
10 15 150

0 0 0

-10 -15 -150

Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Trade Hotels and Restaurants Services and Tourism Trade Hotels and Restaurants Services and Tourism (RHS)

Vietnam - Vehicle Sales 45 Vietnam - Retail Sales Growth by City

250 (m/m) 25 (m/m)
Thousands

200 20 35

150 15 25

100 10
15
50 5
5
0 0
-5
-50 -5

-100 -10 -15

Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Vehicle Sales, units (RHS) Vehicle Sales SUV Sales Hanoi Ho C hi Minh C ity

Sources: CEIC, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011/ 4 of 11

FOREIGN INVESTMENT: DIRECT INVESTMENT PICKED UP, EQUITY LESS SO

• Registered FDI inflows increased to $1.3bn in Feb from $182mn in Jan. However, the total FDI inflow fell
by 32% (ytd, y/y). Singapore was Vietnam’s largest investor in the first two months of 2011, directing
$1.1bn into 14 projects. Disbursed FDI also increased to $1.1bn from $420mn in Jan.
• Both domestic and foreign investor confidence indices improved in Jan to 89.1 and 128.9, respectively,
from 87.2 and 117.5 in Dec 2010.
• However, interest rate hikes, lower credit growth target and the dong’s devaluation hurt the equity
market in Feb. Vietnam experienced net foreign equity outflows of $3.9mn for the first time in
12 months. The total market value of the Ho Chi Minh City index fell by 8.4% (m/m) to VND583.1bn,
compared with growth of 7.2% in Jan. In early Mar, the VN Index fell to its lowest level in three months.

70 Vietnam - Registered FDI 700 Vietnam - Registered FDI Inflows by Country

7 ($bn) 140
(ytd)
60 600 120
6
100
50 500 5
80
40 400 4 60
30 300 3 40
20
20 200 2
0
10 100 1 -20
0 0 0 -40
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
-10 -100
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb USA Japan
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Singapore British Virgin Islands
$bn ytd, y/y (RHS) Taiwan Total ytd, y/y (RHS)

3.0 Vietnam - FDI Disbursement 300 250 Vietnam - Investor Confidence Indices
2.5 250
200
2.0 200
150
1.5 150

1.0 100 100

0.5 50 50

0.0 0
0
-0.5 -50
-50 Domestic IC I Foreign IC I
-1.0 -100
DIC I y/y FIC I y/y
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb -100
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
$bn 3m/3m (RHS) 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11

Sources: General Statistics Office, Bloomberg, ANZ Economics

900 Vietnam - Equity Market (HCMC) 100 160 Vietnam - Foreign Equity Inflows and Securities 900
800
80 120 800
700
600 80 700
60
500 40 600
400
40 0 500
300
200 20 -40 400
100
-80 300
0 0
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb -120 200
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Market Index end of month
Market Value end of month, VND trn (RHS) Foreign Equity Inflows $mn VNINDEX (RHS)

Source: CEIC Source: Bloomberg

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 5 of 11

FOREIGN TRADE: GROWTH MOMENTUM DECLINED FURTHER

• Feb export growth eased to 40.1% (y/y) from an upwardly revised 41.4% in Jan. Import growth also
fell to 22.3% from 33.7% previously. Both exports and imports fell on a month-on-month basis, by
26.0% and 22.2%, respectively.
• Both export and import growth momentum fell to below the year-on-year rate in Feb, suggesting
slower trade growth going forward. Export growth eased to 10.2% (3m/3m, saar) from 25.0%, while
import growth fell to 21.7% from 55.1%.
• The trade deficit widened to an estimated $950mn in Feb from a downwardly revised $877mn in Jan.
On a 12-month rolling basis, the Feb trade deficit totalled $13bn. The domestic sector ran a deficit of
nearly $2.9bn in Feb, while the FDI sector delivered a surplus of $1.0bn.

100 Vietnam - Trade Developments 3 10 Vietnam - Foreign Trade by Sector

9 ($bn)
75
2 8
50 7
1
25 6
5
0 0
4
-25 3
-1
-50 2
-2 1
-75
0
-100 -3 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Exports- Domestic Exports- Foreign Invested
Trade Balance $bn (RHS) Imports y/y Exports y/y Imports- Domestic Imports- Foreign Invested

80 Vietnam - Trade Developments 210 Vietnam - Trade Momentum

(y/y 3mma) (3m/3m, saar)
175
60
140
40
105

20 70

35
0
0
-20
-35

-40 -70
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Exports Imports Exports Imports

40 Vietnam's Trade Deficit and Inflation 40 Vietnam - Trade Balance and FDI Disbursement
3 ($bn)
30 30 2

20 20 1

0
10 10
-1
0 0
-2

-10 -10 -3
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
C PI 3m/3m, saar Trade Deficit 3m annualised ($bn-RHS) Trade Balance FDI Disbursement

Sources: CEIC, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 6 of 11

EXPORTS: RISING WORLD OIL PRICES PUSHED OIL EXPORTS UP

• Export growth eased to 40.4% (y/y) in Feb as domestic sector export growth decreased.
• In terms of products, increasing global commodity prices pushed all primary exports up, except for coal.
In terms of value, crude oil exports grew 21.8% (y/y, 3mma) from 9.3% in Jan, despite a fall of 2.1%
in the quantity exported; Feb rubber exports also more than doubled, as its price increased by more
than 75%. Meanwhile, Feb coal export growth declined to 0.6% from 20.9% in Jan.
• On a momentum basis, growth in crude oil and rice exports continued to be the strongest, while
footwear export growth momentum in Feb was increasingly negative.

Vietnam - Exports Growth by Sector 60 Vietnam - Contribution to Export Growth by Sector

100 (y/y) (%)
50

75 40
30
50
20
25 10

0 0
-10
-25
-20
-50 -30
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Total Domestic Foreign Invested Domestic Foreign Invested Exports y/y

Vietnam - Exports 20 Vietnam - Contribution to Export Growth by Product

3.2 ($bn) (%)
15
2.8
10
2.4
2.0 5

1.6 0

1.2 -5
0.8 -10
0.4 -15
0.0
-20
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
C rude Oil Textiles & Garments Aqua products
Footwears C oal C rude Oil Textiles & Garments Footwears Rice

Vietnam - Exports- Primary Products 60 Vietnam - Exports-Manufactured Products

(y/y, 3mma) (y/y, 3mma)
80 320 50
60 240 40
30
40 160
20
20 80 10
0 0 0

-20 -80 -10

-20
-40 -160
-30
-60 -240 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 Textiles and Garments Footwears
C rude Oil Aqua products Rice (RHS) C omputers and Electronics

Sources: CEIC, GSO, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 7 of 11

IMPORTS: PETROLEUM CONTRIBUTED THE MOST TO IMPORT GROWTH IN FEB

• Imports grew by 22.3% (y/y) in Feb, down from 33.7% in Jan. Growth in the domestic sector fell to
18.3% from 30.0% in Jan, while imports into the FDI sector grew by 28.2%, down from 39.3% in the
previous month. On a monthly basis, imports fell by 22.2% in Feb, compared with a 9.4% decline
in Jan.
• Petroleum imports made the largest contribution of 4ppts to total year-on-year import growth. The
quantity of petroleum imports grew 8.5% (y/y, 3mma), but rising global oil prices pushed import values
up 41.7%. Meanwhile, steel experienced the weakest growth (y/y, 3mma) in Feb.
• Import momentum of chemicals and chemical products, machineries and electronics fell below zero,
while petroleum import momentum surged.

Vietnam - Imports by Sectors Vietnam - Contribution to Import Growth by Sector

100 (y/y) 80 (%)
80
60
60
40
40
20 20
0
0
-20
-20
-40
-60 -40
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Total Domestic Foreign Invested Domestic Foreign Invested Imports y/y

3.5 Vietnam - Imports 25 Vietnam -Contribution to Import Growth by Product

($bn) (%)
3.0 20

15
2.5
10
2.0
5
1.5
0
1.0 -5
0.5 -10

0.0 -15
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Machinery & Spare Parts Garments Petroleum Steel Machinery Electronics Garments Petroleum

120 Vietnam - Imports 300 Vietnam - Imports

(y/y, 3mma) 80 (y/y, 3mma)
250
90
200 60
60 150
40
100
30
50 20

0 0 0
-50
-30 -20
-100
-60 -150 -40
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Petroleum C hemical Products Steel (RHS) Machinery & Spare parts Electronic Products Garments

Sources: CEIC, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 8 of 11

PRICES: UPWARD INFLATION PRESSURES CONTINUED

• CPI inflation edged up to 12.3% (y/y) in Feb, with monthly inflation surging to 2.1% (m/m) from 1.7%
in Jan. However, inflation momentum eased to 23.6% (3m/3m, saar) from 25.3% in Jan.
• Food and foodstuffs led the increase, rising 17.2% (y/y) or 3.7% (m/m), and contributed 6.9ppts to
headline inflation in Feb. Prices in most CPI sub-indices increased during the Tet holiday month.
Housing and construction material prices rose 0.8% (m/m), while transportation prices climbed 1.02%.
• The government announced a 15% hike in electricity prices starting Mar, and 18-24% hikes in retail
fuel prices starting Feb, placing greater pressure on prices going forward.
• ANZ Assessment: Despite having eased off-peak, inflation momentum stayed well above the year-on-
year rate, suggesting the headline number has not peaked. Rising world commodity prices, combined
with the dong’s devaluation and the spill-over effects from domestic electricity and petroleum price
hikes will add to the upside risk.

10 Vietnam - Inflation Vietnam - Inflation Momentum

(m/m) 60 (C PI 3m/3m, saar)
8
6
40
4
2 20
0
-2 0

-4
-20
-6
-8 -40
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
C PI Food and Foodstuffs C PI Food and Foodstuffs
Housing and C onstruction Transportation Housing and C onstruction Transportation

16 Vietnam - Contribution to Headline Inflation 90 Vietnam- CPI Inflation and World Commodity 9
(%) Prices
14
70 (3m/3m, sa) 7
12
50 5
10
8 30 3
6 10 1
4
-10 -1
2
0 -30 -3
Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb
-50 -5
09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 10 10 11
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
Food and Foodstuffs Housing & C onstruction 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Transportation Education
C PI y/y Global Oil Price Global Food Price Vietnam C PI (RHS)

9 Vietnam - Inflation in the Two Main Cities 70 Vietnam - Gold Inflation 12

(m/m)
8 60 10
8
6 50
6
40 4
5
30 2
3
20 0
2 -2
10
-4
0 0 -6
-2 -10 -8
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
Total Hanoi HC MC GPI y/y Global Gold Price y/y GPI m/m (RHS)

Sources: CEIC, Bloomberg, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 9 of 11

RATES AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE: THE CENTRAL BANK RAISED RATES TWICE
• Rates: The SBV raised its refinancing rate by 200bps in Feb, and again by 100bps in Mar to combat
inflation. The 7-day reverse repo rate and rediscounting rate were also raised to 12% during Feb and
Mar. Subsequently, commercial interest rates surged in Feb, and the VNIBOR increased to 13.3% p.a.,
on average, from 13.0% in Jan. However, banks’ deposit rates continued to be capped at 14% p.a.
• Foreign Exchange: The SBV now changes the USD-VND reference rate on a daily basis after the
dong’s devaluation on 11th Feb. By 10th Mar, the USD-VND trading rate was about 7.0% higher than the
pre-devaluation rate. However, markets have not been convinced of strength of the dong and expect to
see further depreciation, as priced on the NDF curves.
• Yields on government bonds were also pushed up to higher levels of 10.7-11.0% since mid-Feb,
compared with 10.3-10.4% pre-devaluation.
• ANZ Assessment: The SBV’s rate hikes following the relatively aggressive devaluation should help
improving the balance of payments, rein in inflation expectations and improve domestic confidence in
the Vietnamese dong. However, as inflation pressures persist and real interest rates remain negative,
we continue to expect further tightening measures will be needed this year.

13 Vietnam - Interest Rates Vietnam - Real Interest Rates

(% pa) 10 (Month Avg)
12

11 5

10
0
9

8 -5

7 SBV Refinancing Rate

-10 VND O/N Deposit Rate
6 VNIBOR
Jan Feb Mar May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Mar -15
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb
O/N Interbank deposit rate SBV 7-day reverse repo rate 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11
SBV Refinancing Rate

Vietnam - Inflation, SBV Refinancing Rate Vietnam - Sovereign Credit Default Swap
30 and Bond Yield 460
(Month Avg)
420
25
380
20
340
15 300

260
10
220
5
180

0 140
Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar
08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
SBV Refinancing Rate 1 Yr Govt Inflation (y/y) 5 Yr C DS 10 Yr C DS 1 Yr C DS

24 Vietnam - Exchange Rates Vietnam - Key Cross Rates 190

Thousands
Thousands

29
23
185
27
22
180
25
21
175
23
20

21 170
19

18 19 165
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar
10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11
1M NDF 12M NDF USD-VND EUR-VND JPY-VND AXJ-VND (RHS)

Source: Bloomberg, ANZ Economics

 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 10 of 11

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 ANZ Vietnam Monthly Chartbook / 11 March 2011 / 11 of 11

IMPORTANT NOTICE

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