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A mature technology is a technology that has been in use for long enough that
most of its initial faults and inherent problems have been removed or reduced
by further development. In some contexts, it may also refer to technology which
has not seen widespread use, but whose scientific background is well
understood.


 
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One of the key indicators of a mature technology is the ease of use for both non -
experts and professionals.

Another indicator is a reduction in the rate of new breakthrough advances


related to it - whereas inventions related to a (popular) immature technology a re
usually rapid and diverse, and may change the whole use paradigm - advances
to a mature technology are usually incremental improvements only.




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We seek to identify and evaluate paths by which biomass can make significant
improvements in the sustainability and security of energy supply and utilization
in the most of the countries. In so doing, we are emphasizing mature
technology. Achieving a sustainable world, even by the most optimistic
estimates, will take many decades. Thus the question of evaluating the potential
role of a particular technology or resource in a sustainable world is necessarily a
question about the relatively distant future. A lot of effort could be applied, and
progress achieved, between now and then. In justifying such effort from a
public policy perspective, it is much more important to consider the features of
a technology that could eventually be realized rather than the features that are
achievable today. Likewise, in assessing the potential contribution of a
particular technology or resource to a sustainable world, it is as important to
know where we can reasonably expect to get as to know where we are. In our
opinion, mature technology scenarios have been under -utilized in energy
planning and analysis of alternative energy futures. Mature technology
scenarios, however well-justified, should not be confused with technologies
available for implementation today. Achieving performance and benefits
associated with mature technology will require a large and focused effort over a
period of time. Estimating features of mature technology is a separate m atter
from envisioning²much less enabling²one or more technical paths leading to
mature technology, and is also separate from describing the societal transitions
associated with adoption of mature technologies in lieu of technologies in use
today. Significant transitions in the energy supply arena have always occurred
over periods measured in decades in the past, and there is every reason to
believe that this will be the case in the future as well.

Finally, it is important to acknowledge that there is inhe rent uncertainty in


forecasting features of mature technology, regardless of the approach taken in
the effort. This uncertainty is present both with respect to individual
technologies and also with respect to comparison among mature technology
scenarios for two or more technologies. With a systematic approach such as that
presented in this memo, we are seeking to avoid some errors associated with
comparing technologies at different levels of maturity and to achieve some
degree of standardization among mature technology scenarios.

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Sustainability and security challenges are, in our view:

1) Identify technologies that have potential, upon completion of a specified


R&D path, to make significant contributions to meeting demand for energy
services in conjunction with societal objectives including sustainability,
security, and economic feasibility;

2) Aggressively pursue research and development on most if not all


technologies in this category in order to advance them toward commercial
readiness and to increase the certainty with which performance and cost can be
estimated.
 
     !
From a layman's perspective, the technological maturity can be broken d own
into five distinct stages.

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Any technology that shows high potential but hasn't demonstrated its
value or settled down into any kind of consensus. Early adopters may
win big, or may be stuck with a white elephant.
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A technology that has proven itself in the marketplace but is still new
enough that it may be difficult to find knowledgeable personnel to
implement or support it.

*&    !

When everyone agrees that a particular technology is the right soluti on.

(& $ !

Still useful, still sometimes implemented, but a replacement leading edge


technology is readily available.

)& * !



Has been superseded by state-of-the-art technology, maintained but no
longer implemented.

Most new technologies follow a similar technology maturity lifecycle


describing the technological maturity of a product. This is not similar to a
product life cycle, but applies to an entire technology, or a generation of a
technology.
Technology adoption is the most common phenom enon driving the evolution of
industries along the industry lifecycle. After expanding new uses of resources
they end with exhausting the efficiency of those processes, producing gains that
are first easier and larger over time then exhaustingly more diffi cult, as the
technology matures.

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The estimated cost of any processing facility, regardless of its state of maturity,
can be strongly impacted by parameters of the c ost database and framework
used. Such parameters include the cost of equipment (bare module cost), the
cost of installation, return on investment, instrumentation and piping allowance,
overhead, construction and start -up time, maintenance, depreciation, as sumed
tax rate, business expenses, owner¶s cost and profit, and working capital.
Different allowances for these factors could conceivably lead to large
differences in the estimated cost of two identical facilities evaluated within
different costing frameworks. Thus there is a strong need for consistent cost
accounting when comparing different technologies.

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The cost of energy services delivered by mature technology is considered here,


recognizing that features in addition to cost (e.g. efficiency, pollution) are also
of interest for our project. Table 1 lists categories of cost factors applicable to a
technology as it progresses from initial conception to maturity. When analyzing
mature configurations of different technologies, care should be taken to ensure
that the same categories of cost reduction factors are considered for each
technology.
& *  , 
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Existing mature technologies can, in some cases, provide a valuable calibration


standard for forecasts of potential improvements to currently immature
technologies. For example, consideration of the cost margin, representing the
ratio of value realized to the cost of raw materials, provides a framework for
evaluating the status of a given technology relative to the margin of existing
mature commodity processes. For this purpose, the relative process margin,
MR, can be defined as

c è º¦ù RÑ
¦ù R

where V denotes the value of all products sold, F denotes the cost of the primary
feedstock, and E denotes the cost of purchased, externally -produced process
energy, all in the unit of per ton feedstock.

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- . 
most advances are in slight improvements of breeds or in pest reduction


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widely used by non-experts, the general principles have not changed for
decades


-  + 
though considered mature, mobile phones showed a rare potential for
substantial changes even in such technologies


- . 
typified by assault rifle technology, most advances are slight improvements as
manufacturers alter balances between weight, firepower, range, and accuracy


, + 
      

- 
with still partly conflicting technological standards[3]


- +
becoming more mature due to advances in user -friendly operating systems


- 

 
(still showing high failure rates in economic prediction)



, +  / + 

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-  
  
actual industrial applications limited so far


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limited, failure-prone and uneconomic


- 1 
+
so far mostly a theoretical concept 

- 
 +2
mainly theoretical in practice as containment energy expenditure thus far
outweighs yielded energy