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MODUL PERKULIAHAN

Teknik Proyeksi Bisnis


(Forecasting)

Oleh:
H. SETYABUDI INDARTONO, MM

PROGRAM STUDI MANAGEMENT


FAKULTAS ILMU SOSIAL
UNIVERSITAS NEGERI YOGYAKARTA
2006

1
DAFTAR ISI

Pengantar

Smooting
Dekomposisi
Regresi

2
PERSEMBAHAN

Guru, insirator, motivator .....


Yang secara ikhlas menjadi energizer
Mas Bowo Trustco Jakarta

Para asatidz, masayikh ....


Yang telah memberikan arahan, panduan di jalan Perjuangan

Rekan-rekan Tim Trustco se Indonesia, juga Malaysia


Para Mujahid Nasrul Fikroh, tatmiyatul kafaah dan tidak lupa kasbul
maisyah

Special for You, Jogja Team


Iwan , Setiya, Junni, Choirul, Fadli,
Tak lupa tim Unit Ngaglik 2

Istri Tercinta,
Yayuk Soraya
Anak-anak,
Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin
Rofiq Wafi’ Muhammad
Muhammad Haisan Haedar

3
PENGANTAR

- Teknik proyeksi Bisnis merupakan suatu cara atau pendekatan untuk


menentukan ramalan (perkiraan) mengenai sesuatu di masa yang
akan datang.
- Kelangsungan bisnis dipengaruhi oleh faktor lingkungan kontrol dan
sosial, lingkungan teknologi dan lingkungan ekonomi mikro

Penentuan Akurasi forcasting


1. Data yang relevan: Jenis, Sifat dan sumber, data kualitatif dan
kuntitatif
2. Teknik peramalan: kualitatif dan kuantitatif
1. Teknik Statistik: Smothing, dekomposisi, box jenkins
2. Teknik deterministik: regresi sederhana, regresi berganda,
auto regresi, model input output
3. Pemilihan teknik peramalan
1. Pola atau karakteristik
2. Jangka waktu
3. Biaya
4. Tingkat akurasi

4
SMOOTHING METHOD

Moving Average

Single Moving Average

Ft = Xt + Xt-1 + Xt-2 ….+ Xt-n+1


N
Karakteristik Single Moving Average
Untuk menentukan ramalan pada periode yang akan datan memerlukan data
historis selama jangka waktu tertentu
Semakin panjang jangka waktu average semakin halus efek pelicinannya

Forecasting error
Error = Riil – Ramalan
Mean Absolut Error
= | Xt – Ft|
N
Mean Square Error
= (Xt – Ft)2
N
2 Bulanan
Periode Bulan Penjualan Forecast Error Abs Square
1 January 100
2 February 120
3 March 110 110.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
4 April 105 115.0 -10.0 10.0 100.0
5 May 115 107.5 7.5 7.5 56.3
6 June 125 110.0 15.0 15.0 225.0
7 July 125 120.0 5.0 5.0 25.0

5
8 August 115 125.0 -10.0 10.0 100.0
9 September 110 120.0 -10.0 10.0 100.0
10 October 120 112.5 7.5 7.5 56.3
11 November 125 115.0 10.0 10.0 100.0
12 December 115 122.5 -7.5 7.5 56.3
Jumlah 1157.5 7.5 82.5 818.8
Mean 8.3 81.9

Double Moving Average

Menghitung moving average bergerak pertama dengan diberi simbol


StI, yang dihitung dari data historis.
Menghitung moving average bergerak kedua dengan diberi simbol
StII, yang dihitung dari data bergerak pertama
Menentukan besarnya nilai konstanta at=2SI -SII
Menentukan besarnya slope bt = 2/(V -1) x (SI-SII)
V = Moving
Menentukan besarnya forcasting
Ft + m = a +b(m)
m = selisih tahun forecast

6
Double Moving Average
moving 5
I II
Periode Bulan Penjualan S S Konstanta Sloop forecast Error Absolut Square
1 January 1300
2 February 1360
3 March 1400
4 April 1320
5 May 1290 1334.00
6 June 1470 1368.00
7 July 1350 1366.00
8 August 1415 1369.00
9 September 1530 1411.00 1369.60 1452.40 20.70 1390.30 139.70 139.70 19516.09
10 October 1410 1435.00 1389.80 1480.20 22.60 1412.40 -2.40 2.40 5.76
11 November 1520 1445.00 1405.20 1484.80 19.90 1425.10 94.90 94.90 9006.01
12 December 1490 1473.00 1426.60 1519.40 23.20 1449.80 40.20 40.20 1616.04
277.20 30143.90
Mean 69.30 7535.98

7
Soal Latihan
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa Mean
absolute error dan mean square errornya.
Data penjualan perusahaan A.
Periode Bulan Penjualan
1 January 1050
2 February 1305
3 March 1100
4 April 1000
5 May 975
6 June 1230
7 July 1250
8 August 1200
9 September 1350
10 October 1100
11 November 1050
12 December 1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa Mean


absolute error dan mean square errornya.
keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.
Trimester Profit
1 738
2 857
3 778
4 729
5 847
6 829
7 972
8 927
9 837
10 904
11 627
12 498

8
Exponential Smoothing

Single ExponentialSmooting

Pemberian bobot data baru a, data lama (1- ), data yang lebih lama
 (1- )2
Besarnnya adalah  antara 0 dan 1
- Ft+1 =  Xt + (1-)Ft
- Ft+1 = Ft +  (Xt–Ft)
(Xt–Ft) merupakan forecast error pada periode t
Dalam melakukan peramalan, besarnya a ditentukan secara trial error
sampai mendapatkan forecast error terkecil

Periode Bulan Penjualan Forecast Error Abs Square


1 January 1300
2 February 1360 1300.0 60.0 60.0 3600.0
3 Maret 1400 1324.60 75.4 75.4 5685.2
4 April 1320 1355.51 -35.5 35.5 1261.2
5 May 1300 1340.95 -41.0 41.0 1677.2
6 June 1450 1324.16 125.8 125.8 15835.1
7 July 1325 1375.76 -50.8 50.8 2576.2
8 August 1400 1354.95 45.1 45.1 2029.9
9 September 1500 1373.42 126.6 126.6 16023.0
10 October 1450 1425.32 24.7 24.7 609.3
11 November 1500 1435.44 64.6 64.6 4168.4
12 December 1400 1461.91 -61.9 61.9 3832.6
711.3 57297.9

Double Exponential Smooting

Dalam melakukan peramalan, dimulai dengan menentukan


besarnya  yang ditentukan secara trial error
Menentukan smooting pertama S’t

9
S’t =  Xt + (1-) S’t-1
Menentukan smooting kedua S’’t
S’’t =  S’t + (1-) S’’t-1
Menentukan besarnya konstanta at
 t = 2 S’t - S’’t
Menentukan besarnya slope bt
bt =  (S’t - S’’t)
1- 
Menentukan besarnya forecast
Ft + m = at +bt (m)

10
Double Exponential Smooting
I II
=Periode Bulan Unit S S Konstanta Sloop forecast Error Absolut Square
1 January 1300 1300 1300

2 February 1360 1306.0 1300.6 1311.4 0.6 1300.0 60.00 60.00 3,600

3 March 1400 1315.4 1302.1 1328.72 1.48 1312.0 88.00 88.00 7,744

4 April 1320 1315.9 1303.5 1328.262 1.38 1330.2 -10.20 10.20 104

5 May 1290 1313.3 1304.4 1322.108 0.98 1329.6 -39.64 39.64 1,571

6 June 1470 1328.9 1306.9 1351.003 2.45 1323.1 146.91 146.91 21,583

7 July 1350 1331.1 1309.3 1352.797 2.42 1353.5 -3.45 3.45 12

8 August 1415 1339.4 1312.3 1366.573 3.01 1355.2 59.79 59.79 3,574

9 September 1530 1358.5 1316.9 1400.065 4.62 1369.6 160.41 160.41 25,732

10 October 1410 1363.7 1321.6 1405.694 4.67 1404.7 5.32 5.32 28

11 November 1520 1379.3 1327.4 1431.196 5.77 1410.4 109.63 109.63 12,020

12 December 1490 1390.4 1333.7 1447.04 6.30 1437.0 53.04 53.04 2,813

736.39 78,782

11
Soal Latihan
Carilah Forecast untuk bulan januari tahun berikutnya. Dan berapa nilai 
untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terkecil
serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn
Data penjualan perusahaan A.
Periode Bulan Penjualan
1 January 1050
2 February 1305
3 March 1100
4 April 1000
5 May 975
6 June 1230
7 July 1250
8 August 1200
9 September 1350
10 October 1100
11 November 1050
12 December 1050

Carilah Forecast untuk bulan trimester ke tigabelas. Dan berapa nilai 


untuk mendapatkan Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn terke cil
serta berapa nilai Mean absolute error dan mean square errorn
keuntungan bisnis perusahaan B.
Trimester Profit
1 738
2 857
3 778
4 729
5 847
6 829
7 972
8 927
9 837
10 904
11 627
12 498

12
DECOMPOSITION METHOD

TREND

Tren adalah rata-rata perubahan dalam jangka panjang


Tren Linier
Trend Parabolik
Tran eksponensial

TREND LINIER BEBAS


Trend Bebas yaitu penarikan garis trend tanpa menggunakan formula
matematis yaitu digunakan dengan metoda bebas, namun bukan berarti
tanpa pertimbangan.

TREND SETENGAH RATA -RATA


Data yang ada dibagi dua kelompok dengan jumlah yang sama
Tahun dasar ada pada tengh -tengah kelompik I
Pada masing-masing kelompok ditentukan nilai X, semitotal dan
semi average
Jumlah nilai X pada kelompok I harus nol
Proyeksi di tahun yang akan datang tergantung berapa besarnya
nilai X

13
Nilai trend dihitung dengan rumus
Y = a + bX

a = rata-rata kelompok I
b = (rata-rata kelompok II – rata-rata kelompok I)/n
n = Jumlah data masing -masing kelompok
X = nilai yang ditentukan berdasarkan tahun dasar

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)


Semi
Tahun Y X Semitotal
avrg
1994 120 -1
1995 125 0 370 123.3333
1996 125 1
1997 160 2
1998 140 3 460 153.3333
1999 160 4

a= 123.33
b= 153.33 - 123.33 = 10
3

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX 123.33 + 10 X

Trend Setengah Rata-rata (data ganjil)


Semi
Tahun Y X Semitotal
avrg
1994 120 -3
1995 125 -1
520 130.00
1996 130 1
1997 145 3
1997 145 3
1998 150 5
620 155.00
1999 160 7
2000 165 9

a= 130.00
b= 155.00 - 130.00 = 3.125
2 x 4

14
Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX 130.00 + 3.125 X

TREND DENGAN METODE KUADRAT TERKECIL (LE AST SQUARE)


Data Ganjil
Y = a + bX
a = Y/n
a = YX/X2
a = Y/n
b = XY/X2
2
Tahun Y X XY X
1999 125 -2 -250 4
2000 160 -1 -160 1
2001 140 0 0 0
2002 160 1 160 1
2003 175 2 350 4
Jumlah 760 0 100 10

a= 760 = 152
5

b= 100 = 10
10

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+bX 152 + 10 X

Forecast
Y=a+
Tahun th ke (X)
bX
2005 4 192.00
2009 8 232.00

15
Data Genap
2
Tahun Y X XY X
1993 120 -7 -840 49
1994 125 -5 -625 25
1995 125 -3 -375 9
1996 160 -1 -160 1
1997 140 1 140 1
1998 160 3 480 9
1999 175 5 875 25
2000 175 7 1225 49
Jumlah 1180 0 720 168

a= 1180 = 148
8

b= 720 = 4.3
168
Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y=a+
148 + 4.29 X
bX

TREND MOMENT
Y = a + bX
Y = n.a + Xb
YX = X.a /X2.b
2
Tahun Y X XY X
1999 125 0 0 0
2000 160 1 160 1
2001 140 2 280 4
2002 160 3 480 9
2003 175 4 700 16

Jumlah 760 10 1620 30

760 = 5 a+ 10 b
1620 = 10 a+ 30 b

1520 = 10 a+ 20 b
1620 = 10 a+ 30 b
100 = 10 b
b = 10.0
a = 132
persamaan
Y= 132 + 10.0 X

16
MENGUBAH BENTUK PERS AMAAN TREN
Merubah titik origin
Y= 132 + 10 X
titik awal pada tahun 1999
Perubahan titik pada 2002
Y= 132 + 10 X
Y= 132 + 10 3
Y= 162
Persamaan baru
Y= 162 + 10 X
Tren rata-rata perbulanan Tren rata-rata bulanan
Y= 132 + 10 X Y= 132 + 10 X
2
12 12 12 12
Y= 11 + 0.83 X Y= 11 + 0.07 X
Tren rata-rata per triwulanan Tren rata-rata triwulanan
Y= 162 + 10 X Y= 132 + 10 X
2
4 4 4 4
Y= 41 + 2.5 X Y= 33 + 0.63 X

TREND PARABOLIK
Y = a + bX + cX 2
Y = n.a + cX2
YX = bX2
X2Y = aX2 + cX4

2 2 4
Tahun Y X XY X XY X
1995 120 -9 -1080 81 9720 6561
1996 130 -7 -910 49 6370 2401
1997 140 -5 -700 25 3500 625
1998 120 -3 -360 9 1080 81
1999 150 -1 -150 1 150 1
2000 140 1 140 1 140 1
2001 130 3 390 9 1170 81
2002 140 5 700 25 3500 625
2003 130 7 910 49 6370 2401
2004 120 9 1080 81 9720 6561
Jumlah 1320 0 20 330 41720 19338

17
160
Series1
150 Poly. (Series1)

140

130

120

110

100
1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1,320 = 10 a + 330 c

20 = 330 b

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

1,320 = 10 a + 330 c

41,720 = 330 a + 19,338 c

43,560 = 330 a + 10,890 c

- 1,840 = 8,448 c

c = -0.2

a = 139

b = 0.06

-
2
Y = 139 + 0.06 X + 0.22 X

18
TREND EKSPONENSIAL
Y = a + bx
Log Y = Log a + X Log b
Log a =  Log Y
n
Log b =  X Log Y
X2
2
Tahun Y Log Y X X X log Y
1995 1250 3.10 -9 81 -27.87
1996 1300 3.11 -7 49 -21.80
1997 1410 3.15 -5 25 -15.75
1998 1250 3.10 -3 9 -9.29
1999 1200 3.08 -1 1 -3.08
2000 1450 3.16 1 1 3.16
2001 1300 3.11 3 9 9.34
2002 1430 3.16 5 25 15.78
2003 1400 3.15 7 49 22.02
2004 1350 3.13 9 81 28.17
Jumlah 13340 31.24 0 330 0.690

Log a =  Log Y = 31.24 = 3.1243


n 10

 X Log
Log b = Y = 0.69 = 0.0021
n 330

Log Y = Log a + Log b. X


Log Y = 3.1243 + 0.0021 X

VARIASI MUSIM
Metode Rata-rata Sederhana
1. Menentukan penjualan rata -rata tiap triwulan pada tahun -tahun
data yang diketahui
2. Mengurangi penjualan rata -rata tersebut dengan akumulasi nilai b
(Sloop)
3. Menentukan Indeks Musiman =
(rata-rata-b komulatif) triwulan tahun tertentu
(rerata-b komulatif) triwulan seluruh tahun

19
2
Tahun Y X XY X
1993 195 -3 -585 9
1994 207 -2 -414 4
1995 210 -1 -210 1
1996 215 0 0 0
1997 225 1 225 1
1998 230 2 460 4
1999 236 3 708 9
Jumlah 1518 0 184 28

a= 1518 = 216.9
7

b= 184 = 7
28

Persamaan Tren
Y=a+bX
Y = a + b X 216.9 + 6.57 X

Origin 1996
Y = a + b X 217 + 6.57 X
2
4 4
Y=a+bX 54 + 0.41 X

Rata-rata sederhana
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 rata2 Rata2 - Index
B Kum b kum (%)
TW 1 50 55 53 49 56 51 54 52.6 0.41 52.16 99%
TW 2 60 63 59 63 64 70 67 63.7 0.82 62.89 120%
TW 3 45 47 50 46 55 52 59 50.6 1.23 49.34 95%
TW 4 40 43 48 55 50 57 56 49.9 1.64 48.21 94%
Jumlah 195 208 210 213 225 230 236 212.61
rerata 48.8 52 52.5 53.3 56.3 57.5 59 53.15

VARIASI MUSIM

Metode presentase terhadap tren


1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil
2. Menyajikan data tren penjualan

20
3. Menghitung prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren penjualan
4. Mencari median persentase tersebut pada tiap triwulan
5. Menentukan indeks musiman

METODE PRESENTASE TE RHADAP TREN


1. Menyajikan data penjualan riil
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TW 1 50 55 53 49 56 51 54
TW 2 60 63 59 63 64 70 67
TW 3 45 47 50 46 55 52 59
TW 4 40 43 48 55 50 57 56

Y= 217 + 6.57 X
Penjualan Origin tahun 1996
Y= 54.2 + 0.41 X
Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996

Origin tengah tahun 1996


1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TW 1 -13.5 -9.5 -5.5 -1.5 2.5 6.5 10.5
TW 2 -12.5 -8.5 -4.5 -0.5 3.5 7.5 11.5
TW 3 -11.5 -7.5 -3.5 0.5 4.5 8.5 12.5
TW 4 -10.5 -6.5 -2.5 1.5 5.5 9.5 13.5

perubahan origin ke TW 1 tahun 1997


1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TW 1 -16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8
TW 2 -15 -11 -7 -3 1 5 9
TW 3 -14 -10 -6 -2 2 6 10
TW 4 -13 -9 -5 -1 3 7 11

Y= 54.2 + 0.41 X
Penjualan triwulan origin triwulan II -III tahun 1996
perubahan ke origin TW 1 1997
Y= 54.2 + 0.41 2.5
Y= 54.2 + 1.03
Y= 55.2
Persamaan tren baru
Y= 55.2 + 0.41 X

21
Nilai tren penjualan triwulan 1993 -1999
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TW 1 48.7 50.3 52.0 53.6 55.2 56.9 58.5
TW 2 49.1 50.7 52.4 54.0 55.7 57.3 58.9
TW 3 49.5 51.1 52.8 54.4 56.1 57.7 59.3
TW 4 49.9 51.5 53.2 54.8 56.5 58.1 59.8

Prosentase penjualan riil terhadap tren


1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
TW 1 103% 109% 102% 91% 101% 90% 92%
TW 2 122% 124% 113% 117% 115% 122% 114%
TW 3 91% 92% 95% 85% 98% 90% 99%
TW 4 80% 83% 90% 100% 89% 98% 94%

Median

TW 1 90% 91% 92% 101% 102% 103% 109%


TW 2 113% 114% 115% 117% 122% 122% 124%
TW 3 85% 90% 91% 92% 95% 98% 99%
TW 4 80% 83% 89% 90% 94% 98% 100%
400%

Nilai rata-rata median


400.2 = 100
4

Indeks Musim
Nilai
TW 1 101% 101%
TW 2 117% 117%
TW 3 92% 92%
TW 4 90% 90%

22
Variasi Musim
Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak
1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan
letakkan pada pertengahan data
2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2
dengan 8 TW
4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak
5. Menentukan median persentase tersebut
6. Menentukan indeks musim

Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak


1. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama satu tahun (4 TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
2. Menghitung jumlah bergerak selama dua tahun (4TW) dan letakkan
pada pertengahan data
3. Menghitung rata-rata bergerak dengan membagi hasil dari no. 2
dengan 8 TW
4. Menghitung presentase data riil terhadap rata -rata bergerak

jml bergerak Jml bergerak 2 rata-rata % penjualan thd


Penjualan 4TW th bergerak MOVA
TW 1 50
TW 2 60 195
1993
TW 3 45 200 395 49 91%
TW 4 40 203 403 50 79%
TW 1 55 205 408 51 108%
TW 2 63 208 413 52 122%
1994
TW 3 47 206 414 52 91%
TW 4 43 202 408 51 84%
TW 1 53 205 407 51 104%
TW 2 59 210 415 52 114%
1995
TW 3 50 206 416 52 96%
TW 4 48 210 416 52 92%
TW 1 49 206 416 52 94%
TW 2 63 213 419 52 120%
1996
TW 3 46 220 433 54 85%
TW 4 55 221 441 55 100%

23
TW 1 56 230 451 56 99%
TW 2 64 225 455 57 113%
1997
TW 3 55 220 445 56 99%
TW 4 50 226 446 56 90%
TW 1 51 223 449 56 91%
TW 2 70 230 453 57 124%
1998
TW 3 52 233 463 58 90%
TW 4 57 230 463 58 98%
TW 1 54 237 467 58 93%
TW 2 67 236 473 59 113%
1999
TW 3 59
TW 4 56

Variasi Musim
Metode persetase terhadap rata -rata bergerak
• Menentukan median persentase tersebut
• Menentukan indeks musim

Indeks
MEDIAN Musim
TW 1 0% 91% 93% 94% 99% 104% 108% 97% 97%
TW 2 0% 113% 113% 114% 120% 122% 124% 117% 117%
TW 3 0% 85% 90% 91% 91% 96% 99% 91% 91%
TW 4 0% 79% 84% 90% 92% 98% 100% 91% 91%
99%

24
Variasi SIKLIS

1. Menyusun Penjualan Riil per teriwulan


2. Menyusun tren penjualan triwulan (T)
3. Menyusun indeks musim (M)
4. Menentukan nilai normal (TxM)
5. Menentukan perubahan Siklis (S) dan random (R); penjualan riil /
nilai normal
6. Menentukan jumlah tertim bang bergerak (weighted moving total)
7. Menentukan indeks siklis (rata -rata tertimbang)
indek Musim

Variasi S&R
Penjualan

bergerak

bergerak
rata-rata
Tren (T)

jumlah
TxM
(M)

TW 1 50 48.67 103% 50 100


TW 2 60 49.08 122% 60 100 400 100
1993
TW 3 45 49.49 91% 45 100 400 100
TW 4 40 49.90 80% 40 100 400 100
TW 1 55 50.31 109% 55 100 400 100
TW 2 63 50.72 124% 63 100 400 100
1994
TW 3 47 51.13 92% 47 100 400 100
TW 4 43 51.54 83% 43 100 400 100
TW 1 53 51.96 102% 53 100 400 100
TW 2 59 52.37 113% 59 100 400 100
1995
TW 3 50 52.78 95% 50 100 400 100
TW 4 48 53.19 90% 48 100 400 100
TW 1 49 53.60 91% 49 100 400 100
TW 2 63 54.01 117% 63 100 400 100
1996
TW 3 46 54.42 85% 46 100 400 100
TW 4 55 54.83 100% 55 100 400 100
TW 1 56 55.24 101% 56 100 400 100
TW 2 64 55.65 115% 64 100 400 100
1997
TW 3 55 56.06 98% 55 100 400 100
TW 4 50 56.47 89% 50 100 400 100
TW 1 51 56.88 90% 51 100 400 100
TW 2 70 57.29 122% 70 100 400 100
1998
TW 3 52 57.71 90% 52 100 400 100
TW 4 57 58.12 98% 57 100 400 100
TW 1 54 58.53 92% 54 100 400 100
TW 2 67 58.94 114% 67 100 400 100
1999
TW 3 59 59.35 99% 59 100 400 100
TW 4 56 59.76 94% 56 100

25
Indeks
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Musim
TW 1 48.67 50.31 51.96 53.60 55.24 56.88 58.53 99%
TW 2 49.08 50.72 52.37 54.01 55.65 57.29 58.94 100%
TW 3 49.49 51.13 52.78 54.42 56.06 57.71 59.35 100%
TW 4 49.90 51.54 53.19 54.83 56.47 58.12 59.76 101%
216.9
Nilai rata-rata median
216.9 = 54.21
4

Variasi RANDOM

Variasi random merupakan suatu hal yang terjadi secara tiba -tiba dan
sukar diperkirkan
Latihan
Berapa prediksi biaya pada tahunberikutnya untuk dua perusahaan di
bawah.
Tahun A B
1999 1867 2801
2000 1879 2819
2001 1786 2679
2002 1098 1647
2003 1987 2981
2004 1697 2546
2005 1769 2654
2006 1999 2999
2007 1768 2652
2008 1987 2981
2009 1097 1646
2010 1679 2519
Hitunglah dengan metode:
1. Tren Linier
2. Least Square
3. Tren Momen
4. Tren prabolik
5. Tren Exponensial

26
Dengan metode tren momen dan least square, Carilah perkiraan
penjualan tahun bulan januari tahun berikutnya dari data penjualan:
Tahun Sale
jan 1,350
feb 1,225
mar 1,475
apr 1,530
may 1,625
jun 1,500
jul 1,560
aug 1,640
sep 1,475
oct 1,575
nov 1,640
dec 1,700

27
REGRESI
Regresi Sederhana
2 2 2
Tahun Y X XY X Y Y Y-Y (Y-Y)
1993 -24 555
1,240 690 855,600 476,100 1,537,600 1,264
1994 -16 250
1,310 725 949,750 525,625 1,716,100 1,326
1995 -29 848
1,270 710 901,700 504,100 1,612,900 1,299
1996 8 57
1,360 740 1,006,400 547,600 1,849,600 1,352
1997 5 23
1,375 750 1,031,250 562,500 1,890,625 1,370
1998 39 1,494
1,320 700 924,000 490,000 1,742,400 1,281
1999 18 308
1,290 695 896,550 483,025 1,664,100 1,272

Jumlah 9,165 5,010 6,565,250 3,588,950 12,013,325 9,165 0 3,534

Standar eror
2
Se = qsrt ((Y-Y) /(n-2))
Se= 26.588

Korelasi r = n XY - X.Y


2 2 2 2
sqrt (nX -(X) . (ny -(Y) )
0.86
Uji a
Sa = Se/sqrt (n)
Sa = 10.049

ta = a/Sa
ta = 3.64

t tabel (,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5) = 2.721

ta > t tabel
a signifikan

28
Uji b
Sb = Se/sqrt (xi)
xi = Xi2-1/n(xi)(xi)

xi = 3,221

Sb = 0.47
tb = b/Sb

tb = 3.80
t tabel (,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5) = 2.721

t
tb > tabel
b signifikan

Uji r
2
tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r )
tr = 3.80
t tabel (,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5) 2.721

tr > t tabel
r signifikan

29
Auto Regresi
2 2 2
Tahun Y X1 X2 Y X1 X2 X1.Y X2.Y X1.X2
1995 12 1.4 10 2 14
144 100 16.8 120
1996 15 1.3 11 2 14
225 121 19.5 165
1997 7 1.9 9 4 81 17
49 13.3 63
1998 16 1.2 13 1 16
256 169 19.2 208
1999 20 1.1 19 1 21
400 361 22 380

Jumlah 70 7 62 1,074 10 832 91 936 82


Y = n.a + b1. X1+ b2 X2
X1Y = aX1 + b1 X1 + b2 X1X2
2

X2Y = a X2 + b1 X1X2 + b2X2 


2

Y = 5 a+ 7 b1 + 62 b2 = 70
X1Y =  6.9 a+ 10 b1 + 82 b2 = 91
X2Y =  62 a+ 82 b1 + 832 b2 = 936

 5 a+ 6.9 b1 + 62 b2 = 70
 6.9 a+ 9.9 b1 + 81.9 b2 = 90.8
34.5 a+ 48 b1 + 428 b2 = 483
34.5 a+ 50 b1 + 410 b2 = 454
-
1.9 b1 + 18.3 b2 = 29

6.9 a+ 10 b1 + 82 b2 = 91
62 a+ 82 b1 + 832 b2 = 936
428 a+ 614 b1 + 5078 b2 = 5630
428 a+ 565 b1 + 5741 b2 = 6458
49 b1 + -663 b2 = -829
-
1.9 b1 + 18.3 b2 = 29
-96 b1 + 1286 b2 = 1608
-96 b1 + 902 b2 = 1430
384 b2 = 178
b2 = 0.46
b1 = -10.6
a = 22.85
Y = a + b1. X1+ b2 X2
-
Y= 22.8 + 10.58 X1 + 0.46 X2

30
Regresi Berganda
2 2
Tahun Penjualan (X) Variabel (Xt) X.Xt Xt X

2001 70 60 4,200 3,600 4,900

2002 90 75 6,750 5,625 8,100

2003 100 70 7,000 4,900 10,000

2004 115 90 10,350 8,100 13,225

2005 110 100 11,000 10,000 12,100

2006 125 115 14,375 13,225 15,625

610 510 53,675 45,450 63,950

Sloop

b= 6 53,675 -610 510


-
6 45,450 260100

b= 0.87

konstanta
a= 610 - 0.87 510
6
a= 27.8

Y=a+bX

Y= 27.8 + 0.87 X

tahun tahun tahun tahun tahun Dependen Y=a+bX


Forecast pengaruh pengaruh pengaruh pengaruh pengaruh
2007 2005 100 100 114.70
2010 2008 2006 115 115 127.74
2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 127.7380952 138.81

31
Koefisien
korelasi

r= 6 53,675 -510 610


-
sqrt {( 6 45,450 -260100 )( 6 63,950 372100 )}
r= 10,950
12,090
r= 0.91

Signifikansi Korelasi
2
tr = r sqrt(n-2)/sqrt(1-r )
tr = 4.27
t tabel (,n-2)
(0.05, 7-2)
(0.05,5) 2.721

tr > t tabel
r signifikan

Latihan
Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan antara variabel di bawah
Tahun gaji kelahiran
2001 1,000 20
2002 1,200 35
2003 1,100 20
2004 900 30
2005 1,200 40
2006 1,100 20
2007 1,350 20

Carilah hubungan dan signifikasi hubungan variabel di bawah, dan carilah


penjualan tahun 2010
Tahun Penjualan
2004 120
2005 120
2006 140
2007 135
2008 150
2009 110

32
TUGAS TPB

Ketentuan:
1. tidak boleh ada tugas yang sama persis antar mahasiswa
2. masing-masing mahasiswa memilih variable yang akan
menjadi variable dependen dan independennya (regresi
berganda: variable independent minimal 2 variabel)
3. objek berupa perusahaan/lembaga profit/non profit
4. jumlah responden minimal 50 (50 karyawan/anggota)
5. dikumpulkan sepekan sebelum ujian akhir

Bentuk laporan
Bab I : pendahuluan/latar belakang masa lah
Bab II: Rencana penelitian
Bab III: hasil penelitian
Bab IV: Perhitungan dan analisis
Bab V: kesimpulan dan saran
Lampiran-lampiran
- angket terisi
- resum angket
- perhitungan statistik - regresi

33
WHAT'S MY MBTI PERSONALITY TYPE?
For each item, select either a or b. If you feel both a and b are true, decide
which one is more like you, even if it is only slightly more true.

1. I would rather 2. I like to


a) Solve a new and complicated a) Work alone in a quiet place.
problem.
b) Be where the action is.
b) Work on something I have done
before.
3. I want a boss who 4. When I work on a project, I
a) Establishes and applies criteria a) Like to finish it and get some
in decisions. closure.
b) Considers individual needs and b) Often leave it open for
makes exceptions. possible changes.
5. When making a decision, the 6. On a project, I tend to
most important considerations are
a) Think it over and over before
a) Rational thoughts, ideas, and deciding how to proceed.
data.
b) Start working on it right
b) People's feelings and values. away, thinking about it as I go
along.
7. When working on a project, I 8. In my work, I prefer to
a) Maintain as much control as a) Work on several projects at
possible. a time, and learn as much as
possible about each one.
b) Explore various options.
b) Have one project that is
challenging and keeps me busy.
9. I often 10. When discussing a problem
with colleagues, it is easy for me
a) Make lists and plans whene ver
to
I start something and may hate to
seriously alter my plans. a) See "the big picture."
b) Avoid plans and just let things b) Grasp the specifics of the
progress as I work on them. situation.
11. When the phone rings in my 12. Which word describes you
office or at home, I usually better?
a) Consider it an interruption. a) Analytical.
b) Do not mind answering it. b) Empathetic.
13. When I am working on an 14. When I listen to someone

34
assignment, I tend to talk on a subject, I usually try to
a) Work steadily and consistently. a) Relate it to my own
experience and see if it fits.
b) Work in bursts of energy with
"down time" in between. b) Assess and analyze the
message.
15. When I come up with new ideas, 16. When working on a project, I
I generally prefer to
a) "Go for it." a) Narrow the scope so it is
clearly defined.
b) Like to contemplate the ideas
some more b) Broaden the scope to
include related aspects.
17. When I read something, I 18. When I have to m ake a
usually decision in a hurry, I often
a) Confine my thoughts to what is a) Feel uncomfortable and wish
written there. I had more information.
b) Read between the lines and b) Am able to do so with
relate the words to other ideas. available data.
19. In a meeting, I tend to 20. In work, I prefer spending a
great deal of time on issues of
a) Continue formulating my ideas
as I talk about them. a) Ideas.
b) Only speak out after I have b) People.
carefully thought the issue through.
21. In meetings, I am most often 22. I am a
annoyed with people who
a) Morning person.
a) Come up with many sketchy
b) Night owl.
ideas.
b) Lengthen meetings with many
practical details.
23. What is your style in preparing 24. In a meeting, I would prefer
for a meeting? for people to
a) I am willing to go in and be a) Display a fuller range of
responsive. emotions.
b) I like to be fully prepared and b) Be more task oriented.
usually sketch an outline of the
meeting.
25. I would rather work for an 26. On weekends, I tend to
organization where
a) Plan what I will do.
a) My job was intellectually
b) Just see what happens and
stimulating.

35
decide as I go along.
b) I was committed to its goals
and mission.
27. I am more 28. I would rather work for a
boss who is
a) Outgoing.
a) Full of new ideas.
b) Contemplative.
b) Practical.
In the following, choose th e word in each pair that appeals to you
more:
29. 30.
a) Social. a) Ingenuity.
b) Theoretical. b) Practicality.
31. 32.
a) Organized. a) Active.
b) Adaptable. b) Concentration.

36
WHAT'S MY LOCUS OF CONTROL?
For each of the following ten statements, select the choice with which you agree
more.

Making a lot of money is largely a matter of getting the right breaks.


1.
Promotions are earned through hard work and persistence.

I have noticed that there is a direct connection between how hard I study and the
2.
grades I get.

Many times, the reactions of teachers seem haphazard to me.

The number of divorces indicates that more and more people are not trying to
3. their marriages work.
make

Marriage is largely a gamble .

It is silly to think that one can really change another person's basic attitudes.
4.
When I am right I can convince others.

Getting promoted is really a matter of being a little luckier than the next person.
5.
In our society, a person's future earning power is dependent upon his or her ability.

If one knows how to deal wit h people, they are really quite easily led.
6.
I have little influence over the way other people behave.

The grades I make are the result of my own efforts; luck has little or nothing to do
7. it.
with

Sometimes I feel that I have little to do with the grades I get.

People like me can change the course of world affairs if we make ourselves heard.
8.
It is only wishful thinking to believe that one can readily influence what happens in
our society.

A great deal that happens to me is probably a matter of chance.


9.
I am the master of my fate.

Getting along with people is a skill that must be practiced.


10.
It is almost impossible to figure out how to please some people.

37
HOW FLEXIBLE AM I?
Indicate the degree to which you think the following statements are true or false
by selecting one of the following choices:
Certainly, always true
Generally true
Somewhat true, but with exceptions
Somewhat false, but with exceptions
Generally false
Certainly, always false

1. In social situations, I have the ability to alter my behavior if I feel that


something else is called for.

2. I am often able to read people's true emotions correctly through their


eyes.

3. I have the ability to control the way I come across to people, depending
on the impression I wish to give them.

4. In conversations, I am sensitive to even the slightest change in the facial


expression of the person I'm conversing with.

5. My powers of intuition are quite good when it c omes to understanding


others' emotions and motives.

6. I can usually tell when others consider a joke in bad taste, even though
they may laugh convincingly.

7. When I feel that the image I am portraying isn't working, I can readily
change it to something that does.

8. I can usually tell when I've said something inappropriate by reading the
listener's eyes.

9. I have trouble changing my behavior to suit different people and different


situations.

10. I have found that I can adjust my behavior to meet the requiremen ts of
any situation I find myself in.

11. If someone is lying to me, I usually know it at once from that person's
manner of expression.

12. Even when it might be to my advantage, I have difficulty putting up a good


front.

13. Once I know what the situation calls for, it's easy for me to regulate my
actions accordingly.

38
HOW PROACTIVE AM I?
Respond to each statement by indicating the extent to which you agree or
disagree with them. Use the following rating scale for your responses:
Strong disagree
Moderately disagree
Slightly disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Slightly agree
Moderately agree
Strongly agree

1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.

2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the world.

3. I tend to let others take the initiative to start new projects.

4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive


change.

5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.

6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into real ity.

7. If I see something I don't like, I fix it.

8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it happen.

9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others' opposition.

10. I excel at identifying opportunities.

11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.

12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it happen.

13. I love to challenge the status quo.

14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.

15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.

16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.

17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.

39
HOW WELL DO I HANDLE AMBIGUITY?
Respond to each of the following statements by indicating the extent to
which you agree or disagree with th em.
Strong disagree
Moderately disagree
Slightly disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Slightly agree
Moderately agree
Strongly agree

1. An expert who doesn't come up with a definite answer probably


doesn't know too much.
Select an Option

2. I would like to live in a foreign country for a while.


Select an Option

3. The sooner we all acquire similar values and ideals, the better.
Select an Option

4. A good teacher is one who makes you wonder a bout your way of
looking at things.
Select an Option

5. I like parties where I know most of the people more than ones
where all or most of the people are complete strangers.
Select an Option

6. Teachers or supervisors who hand out vague assignments give a


chance for one to show initiative and originality.
Select an Option

7. A person who leads an even, regular life in which few surprises or


unexpected happenings arise really has a lot to be grateful f or.
Select an Option

8. Many of our most important decisions are based on insufficient


information.
Select an Option

9. There is really no such thing as a problem that can't be solved.


Select an Option

10. People who fit their lives to a schedule probably miss most of the
joy of living.
Select an Option

11. A good job is one in which what is to be done and how it is to be


done are always clear.
Select an Option

40
12. It is more fun to tackle a complicated problem than to solve a simple
one.
Select an Option

13. In the long run, it is possible to get more done by tackling small,
simple problems than large and complicated ones.
Select an Option

14. Often the most interesting and stimulating people are those who
don't mind being different and original.
Select an Option

15. What we are used to is always preferable to what is unfamiliar.


Select an Option

16. People who insist upon a yes or no answer just don't know how
complicated things really are.
Select an Option

41
HOW CREATIVE AM I?
Review the 30 adjectives that follow. Being honest and forthright wit h your
answers, identify only those items that accurately describe you:

affected intelligent

capable inventive

cautious mannerly

clever narrow interests

commonplace original

confident reflective

conservative resourceful

conventional self-confident

dissatisfied sexy

egotistical sincere

honest snobbish

humorous submissive

individualistic suspicious

informal unconventional

insightful wide interests

42
AM I a TYPE-A?
Identify the number on the scale that best characterizes your behavior for
each trait.

Casual about
Never late
appointments 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Very
Not competitive 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 competitive
Never feel Always feel
rushed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 rushed
Try to do
Take things one
many things at
at a time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
once
Slow doing Fast (eating,
things 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 walking, etc.)
Express "Sit on"
feelings 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 feelings
Few interests
Many interests 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 outside work

43
WHAT DO I VALUE?
Listed below are two sets of statements. The first list presents 10 terminal
values. These are desirable end-states of existence. Think of them as
goals that you might like to achieve during your lifetime. The second list
presents 10 instrumental values. These are preferable modes of behavior,
or means of achieving the terminal values.
For each list, rank the statements according to how important each is to
you personally. Score a "1" next to the value that is most important, a "2"
next to the second most important, and so forth. Treat each list separately.
Terminal Values
0
Happiness; satisfaction in life
0
Knowledge and wisdom
0
Peace and harmony in the world
0
Pride in accomplishment
0
Prosperity; wealth
0
Lasting friendships
0
Recognition from peers
0
Salvation; finding eternal life
0
Security; freedom from threat
0
Self-respect
Instrumental Values
0
Assertiveness; standing up for yourself
0
Being helpful or caring toward others
0
Dependability; being counted upon by others
0
Education and intellectual pursuits
0
Hard work and achievement
0
Obedience; following the wishes of others
0
Open-mindedness; receptivity to new ideas
0
Self-sufficiency; independence
0
Truthfulness; honesty
0
Being well-mannered and courteous toward others

44
HOW INVOLVED AM I IN MY JOB?
Below are ten statements each of which you may agree or disagree with
depending on your personal evaluation of your present job. Please
indicate the degree of your agreement or disagreement with each
statement using the following scale:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Mildly disagree
4 = Mildly agree
5 = Agree
6 = Strongly agree

1. The most important things that happen to me involve my pr esent


job.
Make a Selection

2. To me, my job is only a small part of who I am.


Make a Selection

3. I am very much involved personally in my job.


Make a Selection

4. I live, eat, and breathe my job.


Make a Selection

5. Most of my interests are centered around my job.


Make a Selection

6. I have very strong ties with my present job which would be very
difficult to break.
Make a Selection

7. Usually I feel detached from my job.


Make a Selection

8. Most of my personal life goals are job -oriented.


Make a Selection

9. I consider my job to be very central to my existence.


Make a Selection

10. I like to be absorbed in my job most of the time.


Make a Selection

45
HOW SATISFIED AM I WITH MY JOB?
For the 20 items on this questionnaire, select your response from one of
the following:
1 = Very dissatisfied
2 = Dissatisfied
3 = I can't decide whether I am satisfied or not
4 = Satisfied
5 = Very satisfied
On my present job, this is how I feel about:
1. Being able to keep busy all the time.
1 2 3 4 5
2. The chance to work alone on the job.
1 2 3 4 5
3. The chance to do different things from time to time.
1 2 3 4 5
4. The chance to be "somebody" in the community.
1 2 3 4 5
5. The way my boss handles his/her workers.
1 2 3 4 5
6. The competence of my supervisor in making decisions.
1 2 3 4 5
7. Being able to do things that don't go against my conscience.
1 2 3 4 5
8. The way my job provides for steady employment.
1 2 3 4 5
9. The chance to do things for other people.
1 2 3 4 5
10. The chance to tell people what to do.
1 2 3 4 5
11. The chance to do something that makes use of my abilities.
1 2 3 4 5
12. The way company policies are put into practice.
1 2 3 4 5
13. My pay and the amount of work I do.
1 2 3 4 5
14. The chances for advancement on this j ob.
1 2 3 4 5

46
15. The freedom to use my own judgment.
1 2 3 4 5
16. The chance to try my own methods of doing the job.
1 2 3 4 5
17. The working conditions.
1 2 3 4 5
18. The way my coworkers get along with each other.
1 2 3 4 5
19. The praise I get for doing a good job.
1 2 3 4 5
20. The feeling of accomplishment I get from my job.
1 2 3 4 5

47
WHAT'S MY ATTITUDE TOWARD ACHIEVEMENT?
Using the following scale, select the answer that best expresses your
opinion on each of the 20 questions. Try to minimize the use of answer #4.
1 = I disagree very much
2 = I disagree on the whole
3 = I disagree a little
4 = In between or don't know
5 = I agree a little
6 = I agree on the whole
7 = I agree very much

1. People who are very successful deserve all the rewards they get for
their achievements.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2. It's good to see very successful people fail occasionally.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
3. Very successful people often get too big for their boots.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
4. People who are very successful in what they do are usually friendly
and helpful to others.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
5. At school it's probably better for students to be near the middle of
the class than the very top student.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
6. People shouldn't criticize or knock the very successful.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
7. Very successful people who fall from the top usually deserve their
fall from grace.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8. Those who are very success ful ought to come down off their
pedestals and be like other people.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
9. The very successful person should receive public recognition for
his/her accomplishments.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
10. People who are very successful should be cut down to size.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
11. One should always respect the person at the top.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

48
12. One ought to be sympathetic to very successful people when they
experience failure and fall from their very high positions.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
13. Very successful people som etimes need to be brought back a peg
or two, even if they have done nothing wrong.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
14. Society needs a lot of very high achievers.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
15. People who always do a lot better than others need to learn what
it's like to fail.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
16. People who are right at the top usually deserve their high position.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
17. It's very important for society to support and encourage people who
are very successful.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
18. People who are very successful get too full of t heir own importance.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
19. Very successful people usually succeed at the expense of other
people.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
20. Very successful people who are at the top of their field are usually
fun to be with.
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

49
WHAT MOTIVATES ME?
Indicate how important each of the following is in the job you would like to
get. Use the five-point scale for your responses.
1 = Not important
2 = Slightly important
3 = Moderately important
4 = Very important
5 = Extremely importan t

1. Cooperative relations with my coworkers.


Select an Option

2. Developing new skills and knowledge at work.


Select an Option

3. Good pay for my work.


Select an Option

4. Being accepted by others.


Select an Option

5. Opportunity for independent thought and action.


Select an Option

6. Frequent raises in pay


Select an Option

7. Opportunity to develop close friendships at work.


Select an Option

8. A sense of self-esteem.
Select an Option

9. A complete fringe-benefit program.


Select an Option

10. Openness and honesty with my coworkers.


Select an Option

11. Opportunities for personal growth and development.


Select an Option

12. A sense of security from bodily harm.


Select an Option

50
WHAT REWARDS DO I VALUE MOST?
Below are ten work-related rewards. For each, identify the number that
best describes the value that a particular reward has for you personally.
Use the following scale to express your feelings:
1 = No value at all
2 = Slight value
3 = Moderate value
4 = Great value
5 = Extremely great value

1. Good pay
1 2 3 4 5
2. Prestigious title
1 2 3 4 5
3. Vacation time
1 2 3 4 5
4. Job security
1 2 3 4 5
5. Recognition
1 2 3 4 5
6. Interesting work
1 2 3 4 5
7. Pleasant conditions
1 2 3 4 5
8. Chances to advance
1 2 3 4 5
9. Flexible schedule
1 2 3 4 5
10. Friendly coworkers
1 2 3 4 5

51
WHAT'S MY VIEW ON THE NATURE OF PEOPLE?
Indicate your agreement or disagreement with each of the eight
statements using the following scale:

Strongly disagree
Disagree
undicided
Agree
Strongly agree
1. The average human being prefers to be directed, wishes to avoid
responsibility, and has relatively little ambition.
Select an Option

2. Most people can acquire leadership skills regardless of their


particular inborn traits and abilities.
Select an Option

3. The use of rewards (for example, pay and promotion) and


punishment (for example, failure to promote) is the best way to get
subordinates to do their work.
Select an Option

4. In a work situation, if the subordinate can influence you, you lose


some influence over them.
Select an Option

5. A good leader gives detailed and complete instructions to


subordinates rather than giving them merely general directions and
depending on their initiative to work out the details.
Select an Option

6. Individual goal setting offers advantages that cannot be obtained by


group goal setting, because groups do not set high goals.
Select an Option

7. A superior should give subordinates only the information necessary


for them to do their immediate tasks.
Select an Option

8. The superior's influence over subordinates in an organization is


primarily economic.
Select an Option

52
HOW SENSITIVE AM I TO EQUITY DIFFERENCES?
The four statements ask what you' d like your relationship to be with any
organization for which you might work. For each, divide 10 points between
the two answers (A and B) by giving the most points to the answer that is
most like you and the fewest points to the answer least like you. Yo u can,
if you like, give the same number of points to both answers. And you can
use zeros if you'd like. Just be sure to use all 10 points on each question.
Insert your points next to each letter.
In any organization where I might work:
1. It would be more important for me to:
A. Help others 0

B. Watch out for my own good 0

2.
3. I would be more concerned about:
A. What I received from the organization 0

B. What I contributed to the organization 0

4.
5. The hard work I would do should:
A. Benefit the organization 0

B. Benefit me 0

6.
7. My personal philosophy in dealing with the organization would be:
A. If you don't look out for yourself, 0
nobody else will
B. It's better to give than to receive 0

8.
9. It would be more important for me to:
A. Get from the organization 0

B. Give to the organization 0

53
WHAT'S MY DECISION -MAKING STYLE?
For each of the statements below, select the one altern ative that best
describes how you see yourself in your typical work situation.
1. I enjoy jobs that:
Select an Option

2. In my job, I look for:


Select an Option

3. When faced with solving a problem, I:


Select an Option

4. When using information, I prefer:


Select an Option

5. I am especially good at:


Select an Option

6. When time is important, I:


Select an Option

7. I work well with those who are:


Select an Option

8. Others consider me:


Select an Option

9. My decisions typically are:


Select an Option

54
HOW INTUITIVE AM I?
For each of the following questions , select the response that first appeals
to you.
1. When working on a project, I prefer to:
a. be told what the problem is, but left free to decide how to
solve it.
b. get very clear instructions about how to go about solving the
problem before I start.
2. When working on a project, I prefer to work with colleagues
who are:
a. realistic.
b. imaginative.
3. I admire people most who are:
a. creative.
b. careful.
4. The friends I choose tend to be:
a. serious and hard working.
b. exciting and often emotional.
5. When I ask a colleague for advice on a problem I have, I:
a. seldom or never get upset if he/she questions my basic
assumptions.
b. often get upset if he/she questions my basic assumptions.
6. When I start my day, I usually:
a. seldom make or follow a specific plan.
b. make a plan first to follow.
7. When working with numbers, I find that I:
a. seldom or never make factual errors.
b. often make factual errors.
8. I find that I:
a. seldom daydream durin g the day and really don't enjoy doing
so when I do it.
b. frequently daydream during the day and enjoy doing so.
9. When working on a problem I:
a. prefer to follow the instructio ns or rules when they are given
to me.
b. often enjoy circumventing the instructions or rules when they
are given to me.

55
10. When I try to put something together, I prefer to have:
a. step-by-step written instructions on how to assemble the
item.
b. a picture of how the item is supposed to look once
assembled.
11. I find that the person who irritates me the most is the one
who appears to be:
a. disorganized.
b. organized.
12. When an unexpected crisis comes up that I have to deal
with, I:
a. feel anxious about the situation.
b. feel excited by the challenge of the situation.

56
HOW DO MY ETHICS RATE?
Indicate your level of agreement with these 15 statements using the
following scale:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Neither agree or disagree
4 = Agree
5 = Strongly agree

1. The only moral of business is making money.


1 2 3 4 5
2. A person who is doing well in business does not have to worry
about moral problems.
1 2 3 4 5
3. Act according to the law, and you can't go wrong morally.
1 2 3 4 5
4. Ethics in business is basically an adjustment between expectations
and the ways people behave.
1 2 3 4 5
5. Business decisions involve a realistic economic attitude and not a
moral philosophy.
1 2 3 4 5
6. "Business ethics" is a concept for public relations only.
1 2 3 4 5
7. Competitiveness and profitability are important values.
1 2 3 4 5
8. Conditions of a free economy will best serve the needs of society.
Limiting competition can only hurt society and actually violates
basic natural laws.
1 2 3 4 5
9. As a consumer, when making an auto insurance claim, I try to get
as much as possible regardless of the extent of the damage.
1 2 3 4 5
10. While shopping at the supermarket, it is appropriate to switch price
tags on packages.
1 2 3 4 5
11. As an employee, I can take home office supplies; it doesn't hurt
anyone.
1 2 3 4 5

57
12. I view sick days as vacation days that I deserve.
1 2 3 4 5
13. Employees' wages should be determined according to the laws of
supply and demand.
1 2 3 4 5
14. The business world has its own rules.
1 2 3 4 5
15. A good businessperson is a successful businessperson.
1 2 3 4 5

58
WHAT'S MY EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE SCORE?
Indicate your level of agreement with these ten statements using the
following scale:
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Neither agree or disagree
Agree
Strongly agree

1. I am usually aware-from moment to moment -of my feelings as they


change.
Select an Option

2. I act before I think.


Select an Option

3. When I want something, I want it NOW!


Select an Option

4. I bounce back quickly from life's setbacks.


Select an Option

5. I can pick up subtle social cues that indicate others' needs or wants.
Select an Option

6. I'm very good at handling myself in social situations.


Select an Option

7. I'm persistent in going after the things I want.


Select an Option

8. When people share their problems with me, I'm good at putting
myself in their shoes.
Select an Option

9. When I'm in a bad mood, I make a strong effort to get out of it.
Select an Option

10. I can find common ground and build rapport with people from all
walks of life.
Select an Option

59
WHAT TIME OF DAY AM I MOST PRODUCTIVE?
FIndicate the response for each item that best describes you.

1. Considering only your own "feeling best" rhythm, at what time


would you get up if you were entirely free to plan your day?
a. 5:00-6:30 a.m.
b. 6:30-7:45 a.m.
c. 7:45-9:45 a.m.
d. 9:45-11:00 a.m.
e. 11:00 a.m.-12:00 (noon)
2. Considering only your "feeling best" rhythm, at what time would
you go to bed if you were entirely free to plan your evening?
a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.
b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.
c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.
d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.
e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.
3. Assuming normal ci rcumstances, how easy do you find getting up
in the morning?
a. Not at all easy
b. Slightly easy
c. Fairly easy
d. Very easy
4. How alert do you feel during the first half hour after you wake up in
the morning?
a. Not at all alert
b. Slightly alert
c. Fairly alert
d. Very alert
5. During the first half hour after awakening in the morning, how tired
do you feel?
a. Very tired
b. Fairly tired
c. Fairly refreshed
d. Very refreshed

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6. You have decided to engage in some physical exercise. A friend
suggests that you do this one hour, twice a week and the best time
for him is 7:00-8:00 a.m. Bearing in mind nothing else but your own
"feeling best" rhythm, how do you think you would perform?
a. Would be in good form
b. Would be in reasonable form
c. Would find it difficult
d. Would find it very difficult
7. At what time in the evening do you feel tired and, as a result, in
need of sleep?
a. 8:00-9:00 p.m.
b. 9:00-10:15 p.m.
c. 10:15 p.m.-12:30 a.m.
d. 12:30-1:45 a.m.
e. 1:45-3:00 a.m.
8. You wish to be at your peak performance for a test which you
know is going to be mentally exhausting and will last for two hours.
You are entirely free to plan your day, and considering only your own
"feeling best" rhythm, which ONE of the four testing time s would you
choose?
a. 8:00-10:00 a.m.
b. 11:00 a.m.-1:00 p.m.
c. 3:00-5:00 p.m.
d. 7:00-9:00 p.m.
9. One hears about "morning" and "evening" types of people. Which
ONE of these types do you consider yourself to be?
a. Definitely a morning type
b. More a morning than an evening type
c. More an evening than a morning type
d. Definitely an evening type
10. When would you prefer to rise (provided you have a full day's
work-8 hours) if you were totally free to arran ge your time?
a. Before 6:30 a.m.
b. 6:30-7:30 a.m.
c. 7:30-8:30 a.m.
d. 8:30 a.m. or later
11. If you always had to rise at 6:00 a.m., what do you think it would

61
be like?
a. Very difficult and unpleasant
b. Rather difficult and unpleasant
c. A little unpleasant but no great problem
d. Easy and not unpleasant
12. How long does it usually take you before you "recover your
senses" in the morning after rising from a night's sleep?
a. 0-10 minutes
b. 11-20 minutes
c. 21-40 minutes
d. More than 40 minutes
13. Please indicate the extent you are a morning or evening act ive
individual.
a. Pronounced morning active (morning alert and evening tired)
b. To some extent, morning active
c. To some extent, evening act ive
d. Pronounced evening active (morning tired and evening alert)

62
HOW GOOD AM I AT PERSONAL PLANNING?
Indicate how much you agree or disagree with each of the 6 statements as
they relate to your school and personal life. Use the following scale to
record your answers:
1 = Strongly disagree
2 = Disagree
3 = Neither agree or disagree
4 = Agree
5 = Strongly agree

1. I am proactive rather than reactive.


1 2 3 4 5
2. I set aside enough time and resources to study and complete
projects.
1 2 3 4 5
3. I am able to budget money to buy the things I really want without
going broke.
1 2 3 4 5
4. I have thought through what I want to do in school.
1 2 3 4 5
5. I have a plan for completing my major.
1 2 3 4 5
6. My goals for the future are realistic.
1 2 3 4 5

63
AM I LIKELY TO BECOME AN ENTREPRENEUR?
Respond to each of the 17 statements:

1. I am constantly on the lookout for new ways to improve my life.


Select an Option

2. I feel driven to make a difference in my community, and maybe the


world.
Select an Option

3. I tend to let others take the initia tive to start new projects.
Select an Option

4. Wherever I have been, I have been a powerful force for constructive


change.
Select an Option

5. I enjoy facing and overcoming obstacles to my ideas.


Select an Option

6. Nothing is more exciting than seeing my ideas turn into reality.


Select an Option

7. If I see something I don't like, I fit it.


Select an Option

8. No matter what the odds, if I believe in something I will make it


happen.
Select an Option

9. I love being a champion for my ideas, even against others'


opposition.
Select an Option

10. I excel at identifying opportunities.


Select an Option

11. I am always looking for better ways to do things.


Select an Option

12. If I believe in an idea, no obstacle will prevent me from making it


happen.
Select an Option

13. I love to challenge the status quo.


Select an Option

14. When I have a problem, I tackle it head -on.


Select an Option

15. I am great at turning problems into opportunities.


Select an Option

16. I can spot a good opportunity long before others can.


Select an Option

17. If I see someone in trouble, I help out in any way I can.


Select an Option

64
WHAT'S MY FACE-TO-FACE COMMUNICATION STYLE?
Respond to each of the 45 statements using the following scale:
+2 = Strongly agree
+1 = Agree
0 = Neither agree or disagree
-1 = Disagree
-2 = Strongly disagree
1. I am comfortable with all varieties of people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
2. I laugh easily.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
3. I readily express admiration for others.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
4. What I say usually leaves an impression on people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
5. I leave people with an impression of me which they definitely tend
to remember.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
6. To be friendly, I habitually acknowledge verbally other's
contributions.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
7. I have some nervous mannerisms in my speech.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
8. I am a very relaxed communicator.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
9. When I disagree with somebody, I am very quick to challenge them.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
10. I can always repeat back to a person exactly what was meant.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
11. The sound of my voice is very easy to recognize.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
12. I leave a definite impression on people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
13. The rhythm or flow of my speech is sometimes affected by
nervousness.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
14. Under pressure I come across as a relaxed speaker.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
15. My eyes reflect exactly what I am feeling when I communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2

65
16. I dramatize a lot.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
17. Usually, I deliberately react in such a way that people know that I
am listening to them.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
18. Usually, I do not tell people much about myself until I get to know
them well.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
19. Regularly, I tell jokes, anecdotes, and stories when I communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
20. I tend to constantly gesture when I communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
21. I am an extremely open communicator.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
22. I am vocally a loud communicator.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
23. In arguments I insist upon very precise definitions.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
24. In most social situations I generally speak very frequently.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
25. I like to be strictly accurate when I communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
26. Because I have a loud voice, I can easily break into a conversation.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
27. Often I physically and vocally act out when I want to communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
28. I have an assertive voice.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
29. I readily reveal personal things about myself.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
30. I am dominant in social situations.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
31. I am very argumentative.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
32. Once I get wound up in a heated discussion I have a hard time
stopping myself.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2

66
33. I am always an extremely friendly communicator.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
34. I really like to listen very carefully to people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
35. Very often I insist that other people document or present some kind
of proof for what they are arguing.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
36. I try to take charge of things when I am with people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
37. It bothers me to drop an argument that is not resolved.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
38. In most social situations I tend to come on strong.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
39. I am very expressive nonverbally in social situations.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
40. The way I say something usually leaves an impression on people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
41. Whenever I communicate, I tend to be very encouraging to people.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
42. I actively use a lot of facial expressions when I communicate.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
43. I very frequently verbally exaggerate to emphasize a point.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
44. I am an extremely attentive communicator.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2
45. As a rule, I openly express my feelings and emotions.
+2 +1 0 -1 -2

67
HOW GOOD AM I AT GIVING FEEDBACK?

For each of the following pairs, identify the statement that most closely
matches what you normally do when you give feedback to someon e else.

1.
a. Describe the behavior
b. Evaluate the behavior
2.
a. Focus on the feelings that the behavior evokes
b. Tell the person what they should be doing differently
3.
a. Give specific instances of the behavior
b. Generalize
4.
a. Deal only with behavior that the person can control
b. Sometimes focus on something the person can do nothing about
5.
a. Tell the person as soon as possible after the behavior
b. Sometimes wait too long
6.
a. Focus on the effect the behavior has on me
b. Try to figure out why the individual did what he or she did
7.
a. Balance negative feedback with positive feedback
b. Sometimes focus only on the negative
8.
a. Do some soul searching to make sure that the reas on I am giving
the feedback is to help the other person or to strengthen our relationship
b. Sometimes give feedback to punish, win, or dominate the other
person

68
AM I A TEAM PLAYER?
Use the following scale to identify the extent of your agreement with the 20
statements:

1. Only those who depend on themselves get ahead in life.


Select an Option

2. To be superior, a person must stand alone.


Select an Option

3. If you want something done right, you've got to do it yourself.


Select an Option

4. What happens to me is my own doing.


Select an Option

5. In the long run the only person you can count on is yourself.
Select an Option

6. Winning is everything.
Select an Option

7. I feel that winning is important in both work and games.


Select an Option

8. Success is the most important thing in life.


Select an Option

9. It annoys me when other people perform better than I do.


Select an Option

10. Doing your best isn't enough; it is important to win.


Select an Option

11. I prefer to work with others in a group rather t han working alone.
Select an Option

12. Given the choice, I would rather do a job where I can work alone
rather than doing a job where I have to work with others in a group.
Select an Option

13. Working with a group is b etter than working alone.


Select an Option

14. People should be made aware that if they are going to be part of a
group then they are sometimes going to have to do things they don
?t want to do.
Select an Option

15. People who belong to a group should realize that they re not always
going to get what they personally want.
Select an Option

16. People in a group should realize that they sometimes are going to
have to make sacrifices for the sake of the gro up as a whole.
Select an Option

69
17. People in a group should be willing to make sacrifices for the sake
of the groups well?being.
Select an Option

18. A group is most productive when its members do what they want to
do rather than what the group wants them to do.
Select an Option

19. A group is most efficient when its members do what they think is
best rather than doing what the group wants them to do.
Select an Option

20. A group is most productive when its members follow their own
interests and concerns.
Select an Option

Penulis

Setyabudi Indartono

70
Lahir di Purwokwero, 20 juli 1972.
Menyelesaikan studi SD hingga SMA di
Banjarnegara Jawa Tengah. Kemudian
melanjutkan studi S1 di Teknis Sipil
Universitas Gadjahmada dan S2 di Magister
Manajemen di Universitas yang sama.

Pernah bekerja di PT Freeport Indonesia sebagai senior fasilitator/trainer,


kemudian Direktur Umum dan Keuangan Rumah Sa kit PKU
Muhammadiyyah Bantul. Menjadi Direktur Cabang LMT Trustco sejak
1998. Kemudian menjadi Staf Pengajar/Dosen Manajeman di Universitas
Negeri Yogyakarta. Beberapa tuliusan yang pernah ditulis adalah: Steel
Structure Design of PT FI apartments with St aad III Software (1995),
Construction Management of PT FI (1997), Justice Party direct Selling
(2000), Management Behavior : Mentoring as Solution (2000), Business
Research Method: Memory Research (2000),Yogyakarta Islamic Hospital:
Managing Performance (2 000), Yayasan Bina Sehat: Organization Change
and Developmet as a priority need (2000), Human Resource Management:
Sociaty central health Bantul Yogyakarta (2000),Organization Design of
Region Directorate of Justice Party of Yogyakarta (2000), PT KPI
Tembagapura Compensation applications (2000), SWOT (2003), Advance
SWOT (2003), Modul TFT Trustco (2004), Leadership (2005), Training For
Beginer (2005), Smart Trainer (2005), Strategic trainer (2005), Decition
Making (UNY, 2005), Operation Research (UNY, 2004) , QSB+ (UNY, 2006),
Marketing Advance (UNY, 2005), Lembaga Keuangan (UNY, 2005),

Tinggal dengan seorang Istri, dr. Yayuk Soraya, dan tiga anak laki -
lakinya, Aiman Hilmi Asaduddin (1999), Rofiq Wafi’ Muhammad (2001),
dan Muhammad Kaisan Haedar (2004) di Jl Arwana No 7 Minomartani.
Bisa dihubungi di 08157934565, dan setyabudihrm@telkom.net,
Setyabudi_Indartono@uny.ac.id

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