GREEN
The Nation’s
Global BRAND
Economic Well-being
World Tourism hub
Sustainable exports
Global Solutions
GREEN
ECONOMICS
Essential in
Domestic and
Global Trade
WHY? WHAT? HOW?
WHY?
Collapsing
Mass
Ecosystems
Poverty Mass
Climate Extinction
disasters
Humans release as much CO2 every 48 hours as the
1991 Mount Pinatubo Volcanic eruption
Reasons for Action
Business as Usual
Rate of sea
level rise
proportional
to warming
Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf
7% Suriname population exposed to
1 meter Sea Level Rise
Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf
30% Suriname population exposed to
3 meter Sea Level Rise
Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf
55% Suriname population exposed to
5 meter Sea Level Rise
Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf
SURINAME
% Impact GDP % Impact Agriculture % Impact Population
SURINAME
SURINAME
SURINAME
Source: Dasguta, S. et al. 2007. The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper
4136, http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2007/02/09/000016406_20070209161430/Rendered/PDF/wps4136.pdf
TIPPING POINT Amazon Dieback
Coinciding ENSO & North Atlantic warming
Drought,
Wildfires,
Shift to
Savannah
Lenton, T. et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences US, 1786–1793,
February 12, 2008, vol. 105, no. 6, www.pnas.org/
Amazon 2005 -- Brazil’s Worst Drought in 100 years
DOZEN TIPPING POINTS
Accelerating Massive Emissions &
Catastrophic Collapse
Lenton, T. et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings National Academy of Sciences US, 1786–1793, February 12, 2008, vol. 105,
no. 6, www.pnas.org/
Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita
???
Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.
100 yr Global Economic Growth (GWP) compared with Today
Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions
Toward Zero CO2 & GHG Emissions
$20,000 demand
$15,000 • Oil wars
$10,000 • Disruption of supplies
$5,000
• Price Shocks from weather-
$- triggered disasters
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 101
Year • Oil spills, toxic contamination,
Cumulative
70
consumption 100 yrs & Damages hazardous wastes, radioactive
60
waste long-term disposal
>> $1200Trillion • Acid rain and urban smog health
TeraWatt-years per year (TWyr)
50
A Awin-win-win
win-win-win
Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome
outcome
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions
investing in nature is a cost
By 2020 effective + immediate solution
Ewing B. et al. 2009. The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009. Global Footprint Network, www.footprintnetwork.org/
Ecological Footprint by Country, 2006
Diversity of Portfolios of Shrink, Green & Offset Needed
for Domestic Markets and Global Trade
biocapacity
Why USA and China Importing Resources
Footprint
exceeds
biocapacity
Ewing B., S. Goldfinger, A. Oursler, A. Reed, D. Moore, and M. Wackernagel. 2009. The Ecological Footprint Atlas 2009. Oakland:
Global Footprint Network., www.footprintnetwork.org/.
China ecological footprint
Ecological debt
Ecological reserve
Ecological footprint
biocapacity
GREEN
ECONOMY
direction is
key
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT
Dozen Criteria of Green Energy Systems
Desirable attributes
1. Economically affordable Including poorest and cash-strapped?
2. Safe Over the entire life cycle?
3. Clean Through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable From financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible To volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable No adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign Maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically Adaptable to abrupt surprises/crises?
9. Rebounds easily/swiftly from failures Low recovery cost and lost time?
10.Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
11.Robust experience curve for
reducing negative externalities and
amplifying positive externalities Scalable innovation possibilities?
12.Uninteresting target for malicious
disruption Off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
Uninteresting military target
Delphi Scoring of Green Energy Robust experience curves
Technology by 12 Criteria Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS
Universal symbol for Efficiency
eta
η
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
Now use 1/2 global power
50% efficiency savings achievable
90% cost savings
Solar Fusion Waste ARE Earth Nutrients –
Power in the Photon Bit stream
A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting every energy and power source used in driving
economic activity
Compared to:
Wind power 121,000 MW [158,000 in 2009]
Nuclear power 350,000 MW
Hydro power 770,000 MW
Natural Gas power 1 million MW
Coal power 2 million MW
2009
Market Share Global PV Demand 2009-2013
Eric Wesoff, Milestone: 10 Gigawatts of PV in 2010, Greentech Media, June 9, 2010, www.greentechmedia.com/, citing chart by
Shayle Kann.
Ken Zweibel. 2009. Plug‐in Hybrids, Solar, & Wind, Institute for Analysis of Solar Energy, George Washington University,
zweibel@gwu.edu , http://Solar.gwu.edu/
Solar PV module ASP and cost outlook through 2010
(c-Si and CdTe)
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. 2010. Solar Photovoltaic Industry 2010 global outlook, February 8, 2010. ASP= Average Selling Price
Solar power beats thermal plants within their
construction lead time—at zero carbon price
Source: Amory Lovins, RMI2009 from Ideas to Solutions, Reinventing Fire, Nov. 2009, www.rmi.org/ citing SunPower analysis
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Rooftops
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per
building for the city of Osnabroeck.
GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops
Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Municipal Solar Financing – Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing
Solar kWh per YEAR AVG YEAR TOTAL
30 yr TOTAL (kWh
JAN FEB MAR APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC (kWh/day (kWh/yr per
square meter 2 2 per m2)
per m ) m)
Paramaribo,
Suriname (Latitude 05º 49' 4.1 4.6 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.5 5.0 1821 54,641
N Longitude 55º 09' W)
@ 10% PV eff m2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 182 5,464
@ 50% PV eff m2 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.5 911 27,320
10%eff Delivered
$ 40 $ 1,202
Cost $0.22 per kWh
10%eff Delivered
$ 25 $ 765
Cost $0.14 per kWh
100 m2
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
Natural Daylight
Efficacy daylight vs artificial light
horizontal surface
Relative Efficacy of Light Sources (Ratio of Number of Lumens of Light Energy per Watt of Power or Rate of Heat Energy Supplied). Source:
Daylighting Design in Libraries. 2005, by Edward T. Dean, AIA , Libris Design Project, supported by the U.S. Institute of Museum and Library
Services, http://www.librisdesign.org/docs/DaylightDesignLibs.pdf .
www.wbdg.org/
Whole
Building
Design
Guide
$500 to $700
per m2 net
present value
Oberlin College
Heinz Foundation Ecology Center,
Green Building, PA Ohio
CA
Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
Suriname has offshore wind speeds of 8 to 10 meters per second at 100
meters height. A 3.6 MW turbine in a 9 m/s wind speed, operating 50% the
time, will generate 6 million kWh per year. About 200 wind turbines would
generate all of Suriname’s current electricity consumption.
SURINAME Suriname 3.6 MW
coastline nautical
territorial sea km/nm territorial wind
(km) miles (nm)
waters sea (km2) turbine size
Source: Ernst & Young. 2009. Cost of and financial support for offshore wind, A report for the
Department of Energy and Climate Change, UK, 27 April 2009, URN 09D/534
Financial new investment by technology,
2009, and growth on 2008, $billion
New investment volume adjusts for re-invested equity. Total values include
estimates for undisclosed deals. * Includes CCS (carbon capture & storage)
Source: UNEP and Bloomberg New Energy Finance. 2010. Global Trends in Sustainable Energy Investment 2010, Analysis of Trends
and Issues in the Financing of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Universal symbol for Efficiency
eta
η
SHRINKING footprints through Continuous innovation
KEY POLICY – UTILITY IRP+DECOUPLING
(IRP) Integrated Resource Planning ranks and prioritizes all end-use efficiency, customer
onsite resource opportunities and supply expansion options according to least cost & risk
“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to
harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use
cogen cogen ind cogen efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on
electrical services
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use
cogen cogen ind cogen efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants” Less
Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Less Coal Power Plants
[EPPs]
Web Network Mesh Template for Prototyping Green Dev.
= hyperlink to Mesh resources
CLICKS AWAY
Web access, share,
add, distribute,
produce, collaborate
around shared vision
Imperative
What Makes This
Possible?
•Digital Technology
• Internet networks
• Web applications
• Smart Phones &
Handhelds
1 day of Internet traffic
5000 days ago Pre-Web 5000 days from now
Pre-Commercial Internet Global Cloud Network
Kevin Kelly, Next 5000 days of the Internet, TED talk, 12-20-08, www.ted.org/talks/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
5 billion cell
phone users
In 2010
UN says
A day of Wikipedia activity
Zoom in of
Wikipedia activity
The WIKIPEDIA Collective Intelligence MODEL:
In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees
Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the
Encyclopedia Britannica
Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 100,000 volunteer editors
and content authors
Translating content into 150+ languages, and
Visited daily by > 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
Size of a printed version of Wikipedia within 72 months (2001-2007)
Norman L. Johnson, Science of Collective Intelligence: Resources for change, in chapter in Mark Tovey (ed.). 2008. Collective
Intelligence, Creating a Prosperous World at Peace, www.earth-intelligence.net.
How to fast-track greener cities
Global E-Sustainability Initiative
IMPLEMENTING 10 IT SOLUTIONS TO SAVE 1 GIGATON CO2
10 IT SOLUTIONS TO TRANSFORM TO GREEN ECONOMY
Economics of the moment
Wealth & well-being over a life time
Value of Life on Earth, Priceless
The Guiana Shield (GS) is one of the most important
centers of species richness on the planet.
Bioprospecting ecosystem wealth
Using bioinformatic tools
One-quarter all medical drugs used
in developed world from plants.
Cortisone and first oral
contraceptives derived from Central
American yam species
Pacific yew in western US yielded
anti-cancer drug taxol
Vincristine from the Rosy Periwinkle
in Madagascar
Drug to prevent blood clotting from
snake venom
Active ingredient aspirin synthesized
from willow trees.
Bioprospecting ecosystem wealth
Using bioinformatic tools
Biomolecules prospected from
different bioresources for
medicinal, therapeutic and other
agriculturally important compounds
Stephen M. Maurer, Arti Rai, Andrej Sali. 2004. Finding Cures for Tropical Diseases: Is Open Source an Answer? PLOS Medicine,
December , Volume 1,| Issue 3, www.plosmedicine.org/
Food, Fuel, Fiber, Feed,
Species Tradeoffs?
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of
land required for agriculture.
800 MILLION HA OF ADDITIONAL LAND FOR
MEDIUM GROWTH BIOFUEL SCENARIOS.
Intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich
habitats under constant threat.
Michael Totten
Conservation International
mtotten@conservation.org
THANK
YOU!