Moving Average

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Demand 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47 56
Forecast #N/A #N/A 39.33 39.33 41.00 44.00 46.00 46.67 48.67
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2.84 4.38 4.51 3.88 4.58

Exponential smoothening forecast

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Demand 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47
α = .3 Forecast #N/A 37.00 39.10 40.43 38.03 42.91 47.87 44.46
Std error #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2.85 4.62 6.07 6.39
α = .5 Forecast #N/A 37.00 38.50 39.75 38.38 41.69 45.84 44.42
Std error #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 2.76 4.39 6.34 6.35

Trend

Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Demand 37 40 41 37 45 50 43 47
Alpha Trend 3 1 -4 8 5 -7 4
0.3 Forecast 37 37 40 41 37 45 50 43
0.5 Forecast 37 37 40 41 37 45 50 43
 10 11 12
Oct Nov Dec
52 55 54
51.67 54.33 53.67
4.24 4.26 0.47

9 10 11 12
Sep Oct Nov Dec
56 52 55 54
46.24 53.07 52.32 54.20
5.18 6.47 5.86 5.88
45.71 50.86 51.43 53.21
5.29 6.34 6.16 6.32

9 10 11 12
Sep Oct Nov Dec
56 52 55 54
9 -4 3 -1
47 56 52 55
47 56 52 55
 Month January Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Sales 9 7 10 8 7 12 10
Forecast #N/A #N/A 8.67 8.33 8.33 9.00 9.67
3 month Std error #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 1.11 1.91 1.91
Forecast #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 8.20 8.80 9.40
5 month Std error #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec
11 12 10 14 16
11.00 11.00 11.00 12.00 13.33
1.74 0.61 0.82 1.41 2.01
9.60 10.40 11.00 11.40 12.60
#N/A 1.82 1.80 1.59 2.18
Moving Avgerage

Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demand 5 10 6 8 14 10 9
for carpet

Forecast #N/A #N/A 7.0 8.0 9.3 10.7 11.0

Wt average
Month 1 2 3 4
Demand 5 10 6 8
for carpet

Wt1 0.55 Forecast NA NA NA 6.77

Wt2 0.33
Wt3 0.12
8
12

10.3 10.5

5 6 7 8
14 10 9 12

8.44 7.62 10.22 12.08 9.91

 Year 1
Quarter 1 2
Demand for fertilizer 105 150
(ton)

three-quarter moving
average
#N/A #N/A
Std Error #N/A #N/A
Five-quarter moving
average
#N/A #N/A
Std Error #N/A #N/A
wt1 wt2 wt3 Wt avg method
0.17 0.33 0.5
 2 3
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
93 121 140 170 105 150 150 170 110 130

116 121.33 118.00 143.67 138.33 141.67 135.00 156.67 143.33 136.67
#N/A #N/A 18.38 19.81 27.62 24.99 21.65 12.55 22.46 21.08

#N/A #N/A 121.80 134.80 125.80 137.20 143.00 149.00 137.00 142.00
#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A 21.05 21.57 19.06 17.47
113.85 116.69 125.74 151.77 132.4 138.55 142.35 160 136.6
13

120.00
72.01

140.00
64.75
130.2
Semester: Students enrolled in OM Forecast (moving avg)
1 270 #N/A
2 310 #N/A
3 250 276.7
4 290 283.3
5 370 303.3
6 410 356.7
7 400 393.3
8 450 420.0
Forecast (Exp. smoothening)
#N/A
270.0
302.0
260.4
284.1
352.8
398.6
399.7
 Assumed α= β=
Avg_Sep 800 0.3 0.2
Trend_sep 20
Forecast
 Month October November December January February

Gasoline
demand
(gal) 800 725 630 500 645
Exponentially smoothed Projection #N/A 800.0 747.5 665.3 549.6
Avg 814.0 800.5 758.0 681.5 660.6
Trend 18.8 12.3 1.4 -14.2 -15.5
Adjusted exponentially smoothed
Projection 832.8 812.8 759.3 667.3 645.1
March April May June July

690 730 810 1200 980

616.4 667.9 711.4 780.4 1074.1
658.6 671.0 707.3 855.8 914.4
-12.8 -7.8 1.0 30.5 36.1

645.7 663.2 708.3 886.3 950.6

 Assumed α= β=
Avg_Sep 62.7 0.4 0.3
Trend_sep 0.81111
Forecast
 Month 1 2 3 4 5
Fund
price 62.7 63.9 68 66.4 67.2
Exponentially smoothed Projection #N/A 62.7 63.5 66.7 66.5
Avg 63.2 63.9 66.0 66.8 67.6
Trend 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.0
Adjusted exponentially smoothed
Projection 63.9 64.6 67.1 67.9 68.5
 6 7 8 9 10

65.8 68.2 69.3 67.2 70

67.0 66.2 67.6 68.8 67.7
67.4 68.1 69.0 68.7 69.5
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.5

68.1 68.8 69.7 69.1 70.0

 Month
Fund price
Wt1 Wt2 Wt3 Moving avg
Wt 0.1 0.3 0.6 Regular Weighted Average

Exponentially smoothed
 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
63.25 60.13 61.75 64.25 59.38 57.88 62.25 65.13 68.25 65.50
#N/A #N/A 61.71 62.04 61.79 60.50 59.83 61.75 65.21 66.29
61.41 63.09 61.08 58.96 60.65 63.54 66.71

#N/A 63.25 61.38 61.60 63.19 60.90 59.09 60.98 63.47 66.34
 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
68.13 63.25 64.38 68.63 70.13 72.75 74.13 71.75 75.50 76.75
67.29 65.63 65.25 65.42 67.71 70.50 72.33 72.88 73.79 74.67
66.29 67.35 64.94 64.41 66.81 69.10 71.55 73.31 72.56 74.24

65.83 67.21 64.83 64.56 67.00 68.87 71.20 72.95 72.23 74.19
 21

76.13
75.88

75.73
 Year Wins Attendance
1 4 36,300
2 6 40,100
3 6 41,200
4 8 53,000
5 6 44,000
6 7 45,600
7 5 39,000
8 7 47,500

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9478
R Square 0.898324
Adjusted R Square 0.881378
Standard Error 1839.311
Observations 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 179340359 1.79E+08 53.0112 0.000342
Residual 6 20298390.8 3383065
Total 7 199638750

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 18464.37 3477.568937 5.309562 0.001813 9955.063 26973.67 9955.063
X Variable 1 4060.92 557.751243 7.280879 0.000342 2696.151 5425.688 2696.151

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Percentile Y

1 34708.05 1591.954023 6.25 36300
2 42829.89 -2729.88506 18.75 39000
3 42829.89 -1629.88506 31.25 40100
4 50951.72 2048.275862 43.75 41200
5 42829.89 1170.114943 56.25 44000
6 46890.8 -1290.8046 68.75 45600
7 38768.97 231.0344828 81.25 47500
8 46890.8 609.1954023 93.75 53000
 Upper 95.0%
26973.672444
5425.687664187
 Quarter Building P Lumber sales
(1000sof board feet)
1 8 12.6
2 12 16.3
3 7 9.3
4 9 11.5
5 15 18.1
6 6 7.6
7 5 6.2
8 8 14.2
9 101 15
10 12 17.8

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.275159
R Square 0.075712
Adjusted R Square -0.039824
Standard Error 4.254719
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 11.8629 11.8628969430382 0.655313 0.44163
Residual 8 144.8211 18.1026378821202
Total 9 156.684

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 12.14097 1.612209 7.53064151210327 6.73E-05 8.423205 15.85872
X Variable 1 0.039292 0.048537 0.80951415427736 0.44163 -0.072635 0.151218

RESIDUAL OUTPUT PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Observation Predicted Y Residuals Percentile Y

1 12.4553 0.144703 5 6.2
2 12.61246 3.687537 15 7.6
3 12.41601 -3.116006 25 9.3
4 12.49459 -0.994589 35 11.5
5 12.73034 5.369662 45 12.6
 6 12.37671 -4.776714 55 14.2
7 12.33742 -6.137423 65 15
8 12.4553 1.744703 75 16.3
9 16.10941 -1.109409 85 17.8
10 12.61246 5.187537 95 18.1
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
8.423205 15.85872
-0.072635 0.151218