P. C. Ruffles
Rolls-Royce
1.0 INTRODUCTION
One hundred and two years ago, after the Wright brothers had just
attempted another unsuccessful flight, they predicted that it would be
another 50 years before manned flight was achieved. Only two years
later and 100 years ago this year, Orville Wright achieved the first
powered flight at Kitty Hawk in North Carolina, illustrating just how
difficult it is to predict the future and at the same time launching the
pioneering age of aviation.
Since this memorable day aviation has grown at a phenomenal
rate and is now an essential part of our way of life, with society
completely dependent on the ability to transport both people and
goods safely, in comfort and in short travel times made possible by
modern aircraft and their engines. Nations across the globe have also
become highly dependant upon the aircraft as part of their national
defence force.
The two major aerospace sectors of civil and defence, from a
common beginning, have taken quite different directions over time.
Recently we have seen the military market develop from the cold Figure 1. Current civil technology drivers.
war era into one of regional conflicts, where a wide range of
complex scenarios present many new challenges for the aircraft and
engine designer. Reduced defence budgets have also pushed afford-
ability further up the agenda and these trends look set to continue. 2.0 CIVIL AEROSPACE
The civil sector, on the other hand, is driven by safety, cost of
ownership, and passenger choice with environmental factors taking
on ever increasing importance as we move towards an age of 2.1 Market drivers
sustainable growth. Ultimately this direction will be determined by
The civil aerospace market today is vast and diverse, covering a wide
the approach that the industry’s governing bodies play in addressing range of different aircraft types from large commercial airliners and
Society’s concerns over the environmental impact of aviation. It is smaller regional jets to supersonic passenger aircraft and business jets
also possible that economic factors, such as the availability of as well as rotorcraft for private and commercial use. Overall the
kerosene will, in the longer term, influence the future direction of the market continues to grow at a predicted rate of around 5% per annum,
industry. with the highest growth coming from Asia and other less developed
If the pressure for environmentally clean aircraft becomes domi- parts of the world. Although increased use of Information Technology
nant then we are likely to see accelerated technological development may moderate the growth of high yield business travel and fast cargo
of novel aircraft and aero-engine concepts. Whichever direction the ships may divert some of the anticipated freight growth, these effects
industry takes, both evolutionary and revolutionary underpinning will most likely be offset by the general increase in economic activity
technologies will be required, with innovative approaches in aero- that IT and the Internet create. In passenger terms, the market growth
engine design continuing to be a major contributor. is likely to produce a general increase in the size of aircraft in most
This paper will examine both the civil and defence aerospace sectors as well as forcing some fundamental infrastructure improve-
sectors and open up the debate by highlighting the key factors influ- ments in order to tackle issues surrounding airport security, capacity,
encing the future direction in these markets. It will address the likely air traffic management and safety.
requirements for aircraft propulsion systems in the near, medium and Although the propulsion requirements differ according to indi-
longer-term, together with the underpinning technologies that are vidual aircraft types, there are a number of factors that drive aircraft
likely to prove essential in delivering the propulsion systems that the and engine design dependant upon aircraft size, range and utilisation
community and the customer demand. (see Fig. 1). In all cases however, the designer is aiming to minimise
308 T H E A ERONAUTICAL JOURNAL JUNE 2003
Figure 2. Widest market coverage with the Trent family. Figure 3. A380 and Trent 900.
Figure 5. Widest market coverage with the two-shaft family. Figure 7: The Boeing 7E7.
AE3007 powers the Cessna Citation X and the Embraer ERJ family
and has found successful military application on the Global Hawk.
The engine core is itself a derivative of the AE1107C engine used in
the SAAB 2000 commuter aircraft, which also has military applica-
tions and these are discussed later in the paper.
In addition to new product applications, existing products will be
progressively upgraded with new technology as operators attempt to
maximise the value of their assets over several decades of operation.
Technology upgrades are aimed at improving efficiency and oper-
ating cost while minimising their environmental impact and bringing
the products in line with new environmental legislation.
Figure 8. Conceptual engine for future 250-seat aircraft. Figure 10. E3E — proving technology.
Figure 11. Global fuel consumption breakdown Figure 13. New aircraft concepts.
(reproduced with kind permission of ACARE).
Figure 12. New aircraft concepts – ‘low noise’ concept Figure 14. Novel aircraft and engine concepts.
(reproduced with kind permission of ACARE).
As Fig. 11 shows, 50% of the world’s aviation fuel is currently the ‘blended wing body’ (BWB) aircraft, the ‘lifting body’ style
used on sectors of less than 1,200nm. In view of this and with the aircraft and the ‘three-surface lifting aircraft’. The most promising of
ACARE goals in mind, the issue of the design of short haul aircraft, these is the BWB, which offers significant aerodynamic benefits due
which are optimised around overall economics, passenger comfort to its reduced wetted area and friction drag. This would produce the
and convenience rather than fuel burn, is immediately raised. For type of step change required to meet potential fuel burn improve-
journeys of this short distance, the time penalty through switching to ments. Design constraints, notably the wing depth determined by
slower aircraft would be minimal allowing aircraft and engine passenger height, limit the minimum size of a BWB aircraft to above
designs to be focussed on fuel efficiency at the expense of overall that of wide-body aircraft. With this configuration the optimum
operating economics. Aircraft are likely to be of conventional layout engine solution may well be quite different to today’s large turbo-
with up to 250 seats, using engines of very high by pass ratio fans. In fact much work has been done in assessing the contra-
(including open rotor engines) and overall pressure ratio with high rotating aft fan (see Fig. 14).
component efficiencies. Aircraft could become larger at the expense This design improves fuel consumption, weight and noise. The aft
of frequency whilst more direct routing by better air traffic manage- fan configuration lifts the air intake clear of the wing and so enables
ment could yield further benefits. Future aircraft concepts in this top-mounted (rather than underslung) engines to be located closer to
sector might include the ‘low noise concept aircraft’, where engines the fuselage. The top mounted engine allows the wing surface itself
are mounted on the top of the aircraft to reduce noise effects on the to act as an additional noise absorber.
ground (see Fig. 12). However, even with these new engine architectures there is a ther-
However in the long haul market, the need to maintain speeds at modynamic limit to the improvements that can be realised by using a
current levels is the most likely outcome but using novel aircraft (see conventional Joule cycle engine. A recent study, based on a conven-
Fig. 13) and engines to further reduce aircraft drag and engine tional Joule cycle, predicted that SFC improvements from continuing
specific fuel consumption (SFC). Concepts being evaluated include to improve cycle parameters, component efficiencies and lower
312 T H E A ERONAUTICAL JOURNAL JUNE 2003
cooling flows are likely to be no more than ten per cent. This is
much less than in the past, although the most rewarding area is by
further increasing by-pass ratio provided the installation penalties of
increased drag and weight can be avoided.
As solutions are sought to provide cleaner, quieter and more effi-
cient engines, these highly interactive design trade-offs become
increasingly important considerations. They also serve to highlight
the significance of the approach of the governing environmental
bodies in establishing an effective legislative and economic balance,
aimed at minimising the overall environmental impact of the
industry.
Advanced cycle engines embodying constant volume combustion
would also provide significant efficiency improvements if the sealing
and vibratory stress problems associated with this concept could be
overcome. Recent studies on concepts for high Mach number vehicles
have yielded some very promising results in this area(6).
In looking beyond the horizon of the next 25 years, it is necessary
to consider alternative fuels both from the viewpoint of emissions
and security of supply. Recent studies predict that supplies of
kerosene, or a synthetic substitute from natural gas, would prevent Figure 15. Current military technology drivers.
the industry from facing a kerosene shortage until 2090(2). However,
environmental pressure may expedite a move towards alternative
fuels that are cleaner than kerosene.
Hydrogen and methane are the most obvious alternatives, with
methane producing significantly less CO2 as a combustion by- In the area of manned combat, which is likely to be one of the
product and hydrogen producing none at all. However, the result is largest market sectors over the next 20 years, high thrust to weight
an increase in the production of water vapour, the effects of which ratio remains an important design requirement in order to provide air
are not yet fully understood. Resulting contrails and increased cirrus superiority and good low altitude strike capability. There is also a
formation may also have a detrimental effect as regards climate continued need for such aircraft to be ‘carrier capable’. Emphasis in
change. Together with the practical problems posed in terms of fuel the transport sector is on heavy lift capability, deployment, and short
storage, manufacture and safety issues, it is unlikely that we will see field performance requiring engines with low fuel burn and low
the commercial use of such alternative fuels for some time. overall product life cycle cost. Helicopters will continue to be used
However, the picture in the longer-term must not preclude these for troop carrying capability, support and heavy lift especially in hot
from the frame. and high environments, although offensive roles will increasingly
move toward UCARs (unmanned combat armed rotorcraft). In
engine terms, power to weight ratio, robustness and durability are
the crucial requirements in the helicopter sector.
3.0 DEFENCE AEROSPACE In the trainer and light aircraft sector, cost is the major driver as
aircraft are often complementary to relatively inexpensive simulation
tools. There is still, however, a large market in the developing world
3.1 Market drivers where trainer aircraft often perform a light combat role.
The defence market today encompasses a wide range of different The primary market drivers in the UAV and UCAV sector are
aircraft roles from combat to reconnaissance, from helicopters to strongly dependent on the mission requirements. For unmanned
transports, from tankers to missiles and from light combat and reconnaissance aircraft very high altitude and long duration are key,
trainers to the emerging, yet increasing market for unmanned aircraft requiring low specific thrust engines whilst, UCAVs on the other
of all types. The removal of the pilot from vehicles where human hand, require very high specific thrust. The requirement for
interaction is not necessary provides numerous advantages including; autonomous operation, shared by all engines powering this new
more stealthy shape, non-pressurised cabins with more space, uncom- family of aircraft, provides a unique new requirement for the devel-
promised longer duration missions and a significantly reduced opment of new technologies and processes and in particular the
training demand. These factors are leading to increased focus on the demand for lightweight electrical power. A further new requirement
development of unmanned air vehicles and unmanned combat air in this area is the need for long-term storage. Missiles, also a partic-
vehicles (UAVs and UCAVs) opening up brand new opportunities to ular form of UCAV, have the additional requirement for the propul-
change the shape of military air strategies into the future. sion system to be expendable.
Currently the defence aerospace market is growing from the low Product development cycles in the military market are generally
levels reached after the end of the cold war, although time has seen a longer and less frequent than their civil counterparts. As a result,
shift in the particular requirements as a result of the changing shape recent times have seen more technology transfer in the civil to mili-
of recent conflicts. Whilst new requirements emerge, life-cycle costs tary direction, which is a dramatic change from the position 20 to 30
of existing and new equipment and affordability will determine what years ago.
new equipment is acquired. Increased international collaboration, the
development of network-centric defence systems, technology read- 3.2 The near term
across from the civil aerospace sector, together with the develop-
ment of multi-use engine cores are all seen as essential means of In the near-term engines will be largely conventional embodying
making the required developments affordable. largely proven technologies developed in the late 1980s and early
Thrust to weight ratio, increased Mach number, safety, reliability 1990s but will be updated during their life with new technology
(including prognostics and diagnostics), fuel burn, survivability, currently under development (see Fig. 16).
maintainability, emissions and noise remain key drivers in the The EJ200 engine for the Eurofighter Typhoon manned fighter is
defence sector, although the relative importance of each is highly one of only three new combat engines satisfying the market for a
dependent upon the application (see Fig. 15). versatile manned fighter with excellent air superiority. The EJ200
R UFFLES A ERO ENGINES OF THE FUTURE 313
Figure 16. Near term technology injection. Figure 18. Rolls-Royce STOVL technology in action.
high take off thrust provide both the low fuel burn and short runway
field performance essential to this type of aircraft. The final member
of this family of engines to share the same core is the Rolls-Royce
AE 3007 turbofan, powering the Northrop Grumman Ryan Aeronau-
tical Centre Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft. The
engine, incorporating a wide chord single-stage fan to provide the
required fuel efficiency and noise performance was initially devel-
oped for the business and regional jet markets in the civil sector.
However its versatility has made it capable of satisfying the require-
ments of this emerging military unmanned market sector.
Figure 19. JSF lift system. Figure 21. A400M and TP400 engine.
Figure 20. Applying advanced technologies — F136. Figure 22. Future defence programmes.
Bond® process developed under the United States IHPTET (inte- further roles are identified where pilots can be replaced. The growth
grated high performance turbine engine technology) defence tech- in the unmanned sector will cover reconnaissance, combat (both
nology demonstration programme. These technologies will all have fixed wing and rotorcraft) as well as missiles and space access. The
wide applicability in the longer-term. manned sector, however, will predominantly feature growth in
The European requirement for a new military transport will be reconnaissance and strike.
satisfied by the A400M airlifter being developed by Airbus Military. The focus on affordability and versatility will drive the develop-
The propulsion system requirements for heavy lift capability and ment of products that will find applications to satisfy more than one
short field performance with low fuel burn require a high power requirement, as is the case with JSF. In order to contain the cost of
TP400 turboprop of 12,000hp, the largest to be developed in the developing new technology, sharing of technologies between mili-
western world (see Fig. 21). The engine will be developed by the tary and civil products will be essential.
Aero Propulsion Alliance (APA) in which Rolls-Royce, Snecma, The general trend towards increased Mach number, range, perfor-
MTU, Fiat and ITP are partners. mance and reliability are all consistent with the US VAATE (versa-
A three-shaft configuration was selected to enable a high-pressure tile affordable advanced turbine engine) and the UK FOAS (future
ratio engine cycle to be used whilst avoiding the handling offensive air system) technology demonstration programmes. These
complexity associated with an arrangement where the propeller shaft aim to deliver the future technology requirements of a broad range of
and LP compressor are directly coupled. The three-shaft layout also sectors and, as mentioned, focus particularly on delivering multi-use
provides for power growth potential by addition of either a rebladed technologies and versatile engine cores that can be applied across a
LP compressor of higher-pressure ratio or an additional stage. number of specific products.
The unmanned sector presents a number of new challenges that
will require new engine technologies to meet them, for example
3.4 Long term
advances in prognostic and diagnostic techniques will be driven
In the longer-term the market could split into manned and unmanned directly from the need for autonomous operation which will lead
vehicles, with growth in the unmanned sector increasing rapidly as eventually to an ‘intelligent engine’. Advanced control system and
R UFFLES A ERO ENGINES OF THE FUTURE 315
Figure 25. Potential ‘smart’ applications in engine design. Figure 27. Fan technology.
Figure 26. Smart applications — NASA morphing aircraft concept. Figure 28. Compressor technology (multistage CFD).
areas in both aircraft and engine design. Figure 25 highlights some the intake to the exhaust nozzle enabling the fan design, with its inlet
potential applications in aero engine design, while Fig. 26 depicts a and outlet systems, to be optimised throughout the flight regime.
very long-term NASA study into a ‘morphing aircraft concept’. This Longer-term fan technologies may come through fibre reinforce-
would use SMAs and embedded sensors in order to achieve new ment in the form of silicon fibre reinforced titanium providing
levels of aerodynamics and control. increases in strength of around 50% and greater stiffness over
conventional titanium blades. This greater strength could allow the
blade chord to be increased further allowing fewer blades to be used
4.3 Fans and compressors with improved performance and reduced cost. Currently the cost
associated with the manufacturing process is inhibiting development.
With the trend for high by-pass ratio turbofans set to continue in the In the area of blade containment, future advances in mechanical
civil sector, the titanium wide chord fan blade will remain a key modelling will improve fan blade-off and containment analysis
component. The focus of activity in the future will be on further leading to weight reduction. Developments in resistance to FOD
improved efficiency and reduced noise as is already evident in the (and the detection and inspection of any resulting damage) will also
lower tip speed swept fan design of the Trent 900. be important as a means of avoiding blade failures, especially in
For military fans pressure ratios will continue to increase in order to single engine military aircraft.
enhance thrust/weight ratio and eliminate the need for reheat. The The performance of multistage compressors in both civil and mili-
number of stages will be held to a minimum through improved aero- tary engines is being improved by using state-of-the-art CFD (computa-
dynamics and higher tip speeds made possible by better materials and tional fluid dynamics) flow solvers and ‘optimisers’ (see Fig. 28). By
mechanical constructions. Work already underway for the LiftFan® automating the design process, the optimum design is achieved in the
and main propulsion fan for JSF using the wide chord SPF/DB blade minimum time possible. Recent examples have yielded six fold
and blisk technology will pioneer this technological area. improvements in the time taken to optimise tip clearances.
Further improvements in fan design will result from aerodynami- Although compressor aerodynamic efficiency can be improved
cally modelling the whole flow regime from the free stream ahead of further, more significant improvements are likely to be realised
R UFFLES A ERO ENGINES OF THE FUTURE 317
Figure 29. Blisk and bling technology. Figure 30. Forcing down emissions through innovation (ANTLE
combustor).
through increased stage loading to reduce parts count and the use of
bladed disks or blisks to reduce weight, initially using monolithic tita-
nium and nickel materials. However, further weight reduction will
result from material advances, including the application of titanium
aluminides (with their inherent low densities) to blades and stators.
Blisks will ultimately be replaced by ‘blings’ or bladed rings which
use MMC (metal matrix composites) to provide a 70% weight saving
and a cost benefit over a conventional design (see Fig. 29). The bling
eliminates the bore of the conventional disk by using a fibre reinforced
ring to bear the hoop stresses and is likely to be used initially in mili-
tary products followed by civil products at a later date.
Titanium, whilst an ideal compressor material in many respects, is
susceptible to ferocious fires when rubbing under high temperatures.
For this reason it is only used for compressor blades below a limiting
operating temperature determined by fire resistance rather than
strength. However research work is currently underway to develop a
form of non-burn titanium (BuRTi), to counter this effect, which
would enable titanium blades to replace steel or nickel blades in the
rear compressor stages thereby further saving weight.
Figure 31. Combustion system modelling.
4.4 Combustion
Combustion technology continues to receive much attention as the
focus falls on delivering solutions to the emissions challenges for approach is now being pioneered in ANTLE featuring a simple low-
civil engines and high temperature rise for military engines. Whilst cost single-annular system with fuel staging within a single injector
the two requirements are different in nature, the solutions are (see Fig. 30). This offers significant benefits over the double annular
remarkably similar. In the civil engine the fuel is burnt as weak as design in terms of cost, weight and reliability, while delivering better
possible to reduce emissions whilst preserving other operating char- emissions. In this design, the volume of air going into the primary
acteristics such as weak extinction and relight boundaries. In the zone is large thereby reducing the peak temperature during the
military engine, whilst the combustion chamber burns more richly at burning process thus significantly reducing NOx. This system aims to
max power, it is exposed to the same weak extinction and relight reduce NOx by 50% and if successful, will be applied across the wide
problems when the engine is throttled back. range of civil aerospace products in the fullness of time.
Past combustor technology developments have virtually elimi- In the longer-term and in line with the accomplishment of the
nated emissions associated with smoke, unburned hydrocarbons and ACARE goals of an 80% reduction in NOx by 2020, combustion
carbon monoxide. However, NOx formation remains a more difficult systems will have to proceed towards a premixed system similar to
problem as the high pressure and temperature conditions favoured that used in land-based gaseous applications. Lean pre-vapourised,
for its formation are exactly the conditions needed to improve pre-mixed concepts using liquid fuel are being researched in order to
overall engine efficiency, fuel burn and CO2 generation. develop these systems but major issues remain surrounding auto-
Building on the success of the Trent (Phase V) combustion system, ignition and flashback. These issues need to be overcome before
studies initially moved on to examining double annular configura- they are likely to have a practical application in aerospace.
tions to deliver staged combustion, which accommodates the As well as advances in combustion modelling capability, high
conflicting requirements of both high power and low power operation temperature materials provide the key to future improvements in
by using two separate combustors. However the extra cooling air combustion design and performance (see Fig. 31). Materials temper-
required by these concepts and other compromises, meant that the ature capability and wall cooling are vital in realising good combus-
theoretical benefits were not fully realised in practice. A new tion performance, as air used for cooling is not normally available
318 T H E A ERONAUTICAL JOURNAL JUNE 2003
Figure 34. Engine health monitoring. Figure 35. SILENCE(R) — Noise technology demonstrator.
Figure 37. Electric engine concepts. Figure 38. Simplifying the aircraft and engine interface (more electric
aircraft).
Noise at source can be reduced in several different ways. An to the airframe systems and all flight control actuators would also
emerging technology is that of flow management on fan and turbine be electric.
blades to reduce noise. Ideas that are being evaluated include blade However, developments in this field rely heavily on corre-
trailing edge treatments and flow devices on the blade surface to sponding advancements in electric and magnetic materials in order
modify wake development and hence rotor/stator interaction noise. to realise the required temperature capability and low weight
Alternatively, sensors and actuators can be built into the intake, to designs. Particular developments in insulation technology, perma-
produce sound waves that cancel the noise signature produced by nent magnet materials and power electronics are fundamental
the fan. The control technology for this is understood today, but requirements to achieving the more electric engine and more elec-
further development is required to produce sensors and actuators tric aircraft. These areas are currently being addressed through
that are cost-effective and lightweight enough to make such a extensive research and development activity.
system viable.
All of the above ideas become easier to implement if a good
understanding of noise source generation exists. Modern CFD tools
now offer great potential in providing this understanding and for 5.0 SUMMARY
subsequently optimising designs to reduce noise. Eventually this Following a century of progress, the aerospace industry continues to
analysis capability will include near field to far field effects so that pose new challenges, no more so than for the engine designer who
greater use can be made of indoor testing on conventional test beds.
has contributed significantly to progress to date. The civil sector is
at a crossroads, on the verge of a new era of sustainable growth,
4.9 More electric technologies where environmental and social factors will take on increased
importance compared with the more familiar commercial drivers of
Both the civil and defence aerospace sectors are demanding change. In this era we will see radically new aircraft designs
increased levels of electrical power. This is driven by the need for requiring the development of new and, in some ways novel, propul-
increased functionality, reliability, lower weight and cost, whilst sion systems. The defence sector also enters a new era, where an
replacing mechanical complexity with elegant electrical solutions. emergence of unmanned aircraft will open up new opportunities in
Particular requirements in the civil sector are driven by the demand the changing face of modern conflicts. Again cost, together with
for increased passenger comfort and facilities, while military performance and capability, are set to retain a powerful role in
aircraft demand increased electrical requirements for the move dictating the future direction.
toward network-centric systems, weapons and surveillance equip-
The propulsion system requirements in the two sectors are
ment, particularly in the growing unmanned sector.
moving in quite different directions although the underpinning tech-
The MEE (more electric engine) follows on directly from the
nologies remain largely common, providing further opportunities
more electric advances of the ANTLE programme and is expected
to deliver step changes in functionality and reliability, whilst for technology transfer. Materials advances, more electric technolo-
achieving reductions in cost and weight. Reliant upon close engine gies, sophisticated design methods, environmentally cleaner and
and airframe integration, these improvements will enable the quieter technologies and the intelligent engine will all influence
replacement of traditional modern engine/aircraft systems (that further developments of the gas turbine, which is positioned to
today are individually optimised) with globally optimised electrical continue to dominate the propulsion requirements of future aircraft
systems. An electrically powered ECS (environmental control in both sectors as today no viable alternative exists. Developments
system), for example, is particularly attractive as it also provides will be increasingly delivered at a global system level, through
improvements in fuel burn, while eliminating potential cabin air global companies and through industry collaboration.
quality problems. Although no prediction can be certain and there will undoubtedly
The next step in this evolution at an engine level would be to be unforeseen factors that will also influence the direction of the
replace conventional lubrication systems with oil-less, AMBs, ulti- aerospace markets, we can be quite certain that the second century
mately leading to the deletion of the entire oil system and gearbox. of aviation will provide as many challenges and as much fascination
A generator, mounted directly on the fan shaft, would deliver power as the first.
R UFFLES A ERO ENGINES OF THE FUTURE 321
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to thank Rolls-Royce for permission to present and
publish this paper. I would also like to thank Will Erith who has
helped with writing the text and with the illustrations.
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