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Market Report

April 27, 2011


U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 04/27/10 04/20/10 04/28/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 18.66 15.47 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.34 15.19 00.00 9.65 WMP 11.74 12.34
Short Grain April 27 18.34 15.19 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 13.20 10.65 - 7.01 Difference (5.51) (5.74)

Posting: (May/June Shipment)


Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $22.50 per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.0 per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $550.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $24.00 per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $21.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $540.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) #1/4 Parb no quote per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $600.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $280.00 per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) #4/20/hm $20.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $20.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled #2/4% no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Pkg. Parb. $28.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $21.50 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $24.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $31.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $835.00 per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $875.00 per mt sacked containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $875.00 per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $810.00 per mt in totes containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #1 58/69 $550.00 per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $15.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled) contracts M/A $13.50 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $19.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers contracts M/A $14.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 27, 2011 - Page 1 of 4


Far East Report
Thailand Exports
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS Jan. 1 - Mar. 31, 2011: 3,012,021 mt
In Thailand, prices are slightly higher, up about $5.00 per Jan. 1 - Mar. 31, 2010: 2,136,391 mt
mt since last week. In fact, in some cases, Viet prices actually Jan. 1 - April 1, 2009: 2,051,242 mt
surpassed Thai prices last week (see CRMR dated Apr. 20). Thai Baht: 30:1 vs US Dollar
Perhaps, herein lies the primary impetus for the short rally. Now,
for all practical purposes, Thai and Viet prices are virtually at par with one INDIA, PAKISTAN, AND BANGLADESH
another. The big news in India is a recent declaration by the Bharatiya
100% B is quoted at $500 per mt FOB Bangkok; 5% is $480, and parboil is Janata Party (BJP) that they plan to meet with Prime Minister
$505. White brokens are quite firm amid limited supplies at $415. Manmohan Singh along with a group of growers and grower
Demand, principally from West Africa, has picked up a bit associations to ask for a lifting of the export ban. RiceOnline.
now that there is no definitive difference in Thai and Viet values. com posted an article written on April 22 which outlines this proposed
There are ongoing shipments to Iraq and Bangladesh against meeting. For weeks, CRMR has commented on how the rhetoric about
old sales (G to G deals) as well. At the present pace, exports are a possible lifting of the export ban on non-Basmati rice continues to heat
projected to reach or exceed 9.5 MMT for 2011. up. Now, we see a major political party behind the movement with the
Otherwise, the market is a bit quiet, but the undertone is farmers at their side. It is no secret that most exporters would like to see the
steady to firm, for the time being. market open as well. So far, it has been a case of the government wanting
In Vietnam, prices have been “inching up” for the past few to keep a lid on further inflation by keeping local prices down. As local
weeks, equal to or higher than Thai, as mentioned above. 5% is stocks continue to mount in record proportions, local prices have fallen and
quoted at $480-485 per mt FOB HCMC; whilst 25% is $450. The farmers are protesting. The 2010-2011 fiscal rice crop is now forecast to be
MEP is still $490 and $470, respectively...a rare occasion where 102 MMT, while the wheat crop adds another 140 MMT to the grain supply.
the MEP is in line with the actual market, not that it means it is influencing No question, stocks have become burdensome to handle and there is sound
the market price, I simply do not think so...the market is what market is... fundamental reason to promote exports. As we have noted in our report on
MEP is more times than not simply political “window dressing”. numerous occasions, the ramifications on global supply side economics could
The next big piece of business on the horizon, or at least the be profound if the ban were not only loosened and given exceptions (like it
one the industry is eagerly anticipating, is The Philippines. So has recently), but formally opens. This situation is undoubtedly
far, 600,000 mt in private licenses have basically been approved/ the most intriguing issue the rice industry faces today.
allocated by the government. However, there has yet to be a In Pakistan, there is just not much of interest to report about
purchases of any kind. And, it remains unclear, what role the the market. Prices are pretty flat, exports are mostly limited to
NFA will play in the procurement campaign this year as they have shown core markets....i.e. East Africa and border trade with Iraq. IRRI-
no sign of floating a formal tender. In sharp contrast to recent years under 6 5% is quoted at $470-490 per mt FOB Karachi, depending on
the old government regime, The Philippines has been very methodical and which supplier you talk to and the quality thereto; and 25% is
patient. One thing not to lose sight of, is the luxury they enjoy to be able to around $420-$430.
wait on the Thai and Viet crops to be fully harvested account adequate stocks Bangladesh has been the real interesting market in the
due to overbuying last year. Whether this is by coincidence of by design is region as they have bought substantial quantities from various
subject to debate. In any event, this is historically late for them to go without origins both by government tender and via G to G trades. We
making any move to buy whatsoever. However, I look for them to come into estimate their total purchases to be around 600,000 mt including
the market in the next few weeks. the recently reported Thai G to G deal for 200,000 mt, but not including
The market here is relatively quiet as well but also with a steady to firm a pending deal with Vinafood. It has been most difficult to accurately
undertone. track their purchases as several of the tenders have been repeated and/or
Whereas, I don’t anticipate further substantive price increases, I do feel rescheduled.
we have support under the market at today’s levels, which on a FOB basis, are Perhaps the number one thing to watch for in Asia is some kind of
not very much lower than the American origins. dramatic departure from the export ban in India....that, and the upcoming
Philippine purchases...stay tuned, as we will keep you up to date on all of
these developments as they take place.

OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $500.00 5% $485.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $480.00 5% N/A 5% $470.00 $515.00 $515.00
10% $475.00 10% $480.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $505.00 $505.00
15% $470.00 15% $470.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $455.00 25% $450.00 25% N/A 25% $425.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $510.00 $480.00
Brokens $415.00 Brokens $415.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $500.00 Brokens
Parb. 100B sorted $505.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens $390.00 $385
Thai Hom Mali $905.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati Paddy
Frag. Brokens $450.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1300.00 $300.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.

Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 27, 2011 - Page 2 of 4


CBOT Rough Rice Futures (04/25/11 Volume: 4,233 Open Interest: 24,486)
Contract Tuesday’s Close Net Change From Prices
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 04/27/10
‘11 May $14.350 DOWN 0.130 UP 0.665 ‘10 May $12.260
‘11 Jul $14.665 DOWN 0.145 UP 0.650 ‘10 Jul $12.525
‘11 Sep $15.390 DOWN 0.080 UP 0.610 ‘10 Sep $12.325
‘11 Nov $15.680 DOWN 0.060 UP 0.620 ‘10 Nov $12.450
‘12 Jan $15.960 DOWN 0.045 UP 0.625 ‘11 Jan $12.740
‘12 Mar $16.270 EVEN 0.000 UP 0.660 ‘11 Mar $13.035

U.S. Paddy Market Report could change dramatically for the better or worse. The market is
slightly stronger with bids for long grain at $11.00 per cwt loaded
Texas - Buyers’ bids are $6.15 per cwt over loan with virtually no barge up-river while sellers’ price ideas are $12.00 per cwt.
trading reported. New crop planting is 90% completed.
California - 2010 Calrose M/G is $13.50 - $13.75 per cwt over loan.
Louisiana - Bids are unchanged at $10.90 per cwt FOB farm. Modest 2011 new crop is bid at $13.00 per cwt over load with the last trade at
trading reported. New crop planting in southwest Louisiana is almost $13.10 per cwt over loan.
completed.
Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
Mid South - Severe rainstorms and tornados have plagued the mid- Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
south the past several days. These have not only caused delays in
Long grain $12.65 $10.90 $10.00b/11.00a *
planting but has produced flash floods and breached levees in some
areas. River levels are very high. If the weather improves by the end Med Grain * 14.50 new crop $17.25 $20.55
of this week and stays clear, then we do not anticipate a large decrease L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
in planting. However, this merits close monitoring as this situation * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES levels, which will grossly impede traffic on the Mississippi River
It was a very quiet week, as Christians throughout the Western for the next several weeks.
Hemisphere were in observance of Lent and celebrating the Easter Rice futures staged a respectable rally last week, mostly on the
Season. However, the market is just “flat out” quiet account the lack coat tails of a wheat rally. Contracts were up $0.61-0.66 for the
of fresh demand offshore. Our prices are a bit more competitive, week.
about the same or slightly higher than those in South America, As of yet, there has been no formal announcement by IGB
and only $15-20 above Asian values on a FOB basis. The added about a fresh Iraq tender being floated. However, we do anticipate
problem is that most of the vessels are in the Eastern Hemisphere, one shortly, but don’t look for U.S. rice to stand much of a chance
hence the Asian origins enjoy a substantial freight advantage over to sell.
rates on this side of the world (i.e. $30-35 per mt to most Middle Otherwise, the market is quiet and the undertone soft.
Eastern countries). Even Brazil has about a $15 per mt advantage
over the U.S. to West African destinations.
Last week we reported on the irony of long grain milled rice
exports actually being higher (14%) than last year, wherein it feels CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE “MED”
like the opposite in the market today. However, we went on to say
that this distortion was account heavy milled rice sales early in The market conditions are basically unchanged
the year when prices were much cheaper and parboil and brokens as mills continue to ship at full capacity against old
competed quite well with Asian origins. This is no longer the sales to Japan, Korea, Libya, and other core markets,
case as regards parboil nor regular white rice and the statistics are as well as their domestic customers.
slowly but surely beginning to numerically reflect that reversal It is noteworthy, that existing sales to Japan and
(i.e. long grain milled exports now lead last year by 13%, a 1% Libya have not been disrupted by the inordinate
reduction from last week...albeit small, but noteworthy statistic). situations on the ground.
For nominal purposes, we are quoting #2-4% at $515-520 Milling schedules are mostly booked thru June,
per mt bagged FOB vessel or around $490 basis bulk. Prices are at which time mills will take some down time for fumigation,
mostly sideways, but biddable with volume business as the mills vacation, and in compliance with PG&E power
schedules begin to open up in May and even more so in June. restrictions.
Paddy is bid/asked at levels that reflect roughly $265/$285 per The Australia crop is nearing completion and our
mt FOB NOLA, respectively. The real issue the industry now estimate of 800,000 mt basis paddy still stands.
confronts are these horrendous storms in the Midwest that have The undertone of the global medium grain
resulted in heavy rains, tornadoes, and unmanageable high river markets remain steady to firm.
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 27, 2011 - Page 3 of 4


Upcoming Tenders: USDA Export Sales Highlights
End April Costa Rica tender to buy 30,000mt of of long grain (April 8 - 14, 2011)
paddy. Sales
May 3 KCCO Inv. 2000000064 tender to buy 1030mt of US Net sales of 65,900 MT were down 20 percent from the
#5/20% long grain, well milled; and 1030mt of US #5/20% medium
grain, well milled for shipment inland plants June 1-15, 16-30, 2011. previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week
average. Increases were reported for:
Tenders Results: Venezuela (20,000 MT)
Mexico (18,100 MT)
April 26 KCCO Inv. 2000000044 (amended to delay Nicaragua (10,000 MT)
bids to April 28) tender to buy 3250mt of US #5/20% long grain, Costa Rica (6,600 MT)
well milled for shipment inland plants May 16 to May 31, 2011 and/or
June 1 to June 15, 2011. Results pending. Saudi Arabia (2,000 MT)
Exports
Upcoming Events:
June 7-9, 2011 TRT Americas Conference 2011 Exports of 57,400 MT were down 49 percent from the
Hotel Riu Plaza Panama, Panama City, Panama previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week
For more info go to: http://trtamericas.com/ average. The primary destinations were:
June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers’ Association Convention Venezuela (20,000 MT)
For more info go to: Senegal (7,500 MT)
http://www.usarice.com Mexico (7,000 MT)
Honduras (5,400 MT)
Nicaragua (4,200 MT)
Please note: Source: USDA
June 8 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued
account our attendance at the TRT Americas
Conference.
June 29 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued
account our attendance at the RMA convention.

USDA Crop Progress


Rice Planted - Selected States -- Week Ending Rice Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending
April 24, April 17, April 24, 2006- 2010 April 24, April 17, April 24, 2006- 2010
State State
2010 2011 2011 Avg. 2010 2011 2011 Avg.
Arkansas 48 35 44 56 Arkansas 39 10 23 22
California 3 - 1 11 California - - - 1
Louisiana 72 81 92 80 Louisiana 66 57 71 62
Mississippi 40 32 57 53 Mississippi 30 12 28 25
Missouri 35 7 13 46 Missouri 24 1 3 13
Texas 67 86 87 85 Texas 51 68 71 68
6 States 44 37 46 53 6 States 36 18 28 27

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (virtually no spot supply available for sale in South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $110-$115 $110 Not Available ($110) $140-$150
Mill Feed: $45 $30 Not Available ($40)
Ground Hulls: $5 $5 $15
Unground Hulls: $5 $5 $12 $8

Creed Rice Co. Inc.  800 Wilcrest Suite 200  Houston, Texas 77042  USA
Ph 1.713.782.3260  Fax 1.713.782.4671  www.creedrice.com  email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
Brokers • Consultants • Market Reports • Arbitrators
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

April 27, 2011 - Page 4 of 4

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