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Copyright

Airbus A3XX: Developing the World's Largest Commercial Jet


Harvard Business School Case N9-201-028
Case Software 2-201-714

Copyright © 2000 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College

Dean's Research Fellow Michael Kane and Professor Benjamin Esty prepared this case with
assistance from Research Associate Fuaad A. Qureshi as the basis for class discussion rather than
to illustrate either effective or ineffective handling of an aministrative situation. The case was
prepared from public sources of information only.

1
Exhibit 1

Exhibit 1 Sales of Commercial Airplane and Aviation Support Services ($ 1999, billions)

1999 2019 2000-2019


Annual Sales Annual Sales Cumulative Sales
(Actual) (Estimate) (Estimate)

Aircraft Deliveries
Regional Aircraft $3.8 NA NA
Airbus 16.0 $60.6 $729.5
Boeing 36.7 56.9 692.5
Total Aircraft Deliveries $56.5 $117.5 $1,422.0

Aircraft Support Services


Airplane Servicing 13.8 32.3 441
Heavy Airplane Maintenance 18.5 43 588
Engine Repair (off wing) 8.4 19.6 268
Airframe Component Repair 12.3 28.8 394
Major Airplane Modification 1.8 3.5 43
Airframe and Engine Repair Parts 8.1 18.8 257
Flight Crew Training 1.7 3.4 49
Airport and Route Infrastructure 21.4 43 622
Used Airplane Remarketing 0.7 1.4 20
Total Support Services $86.7 $193.8 $2,682

Total Deliveries and Services $143.2 $311.3 $4,104

Sources: Boeing Current Market Outlook, 2000; The Airline Monitor, July 2000.

2
Exhibit 3

Exhibit 3        Orders and Deliveries for Select Passenger Aircraft

Boeing Aircraft Airbus Aircraft


747- 767- 747- 777-
737 1/2/300 2/3/400 400 2/300 A-300 A-310 A-320 A-330 A-340

Average Number of Seats 140 390 220 410 350 265 220 150 310 300

Actual Deliveries
1967 4
1968 105
1969 114 3
1970 37 40
1971 29 40
1972 22 17
1973 18 19
1974 47 15
1975 51 19 1
1976 41 21 6
1977 25 18 10
1978 40 28 10
1979 77 60 18
1980 92 67 31
1981 108 53 37
1982 95 24 20 37
1983 82 22 55 19 17
1984 67 15 29 17 26
1985 115 24 25 15 26
1986 141 35 24 10 18
1987 161 23 36 10 19
1988 165 24 53 17 28 14
1989 146 4 35 41 24 23 57
1990 174 8 60 62 18 18 57
1991 215 2 62 62 23 19 119
1992 218 0 63 61 22 23 111
1993 152 51 55 22 22 72 1 21
1994 121 40 40 23 2 48 9 25
1995 89 36 25 13 17 2 32 30 19
1996 76 42 25 32 14 2 38 10 28
1997 135 41 39 59 6 2 57 14 33
1998 274 47 53 74 13 1 80 23 24
1999 295 44 47 83 8 0 101 44 20

Total 3,531 581 763 510 261 428 248 786 131 170
Average Yearly Deliveries 107 25 42 46 52 17 15 66 19 24

Current Order Book by


Scheduled Delivery Date
2000 285 0 41 18 41 4 0 82 33 14
2001 255 0 34 24 54 8 0 139 49 21
2002 188 0 21 18 37 11 3 126 25 32
2003 125 0 10 6 18 9 1 96 14 31
2004 95 0 3 3 17 3 1 46 19 14
2005 40 0 1 3 9 0 0 22 13 5
2006 25 0 0 1 8 0 0 8 0 1
2007 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 0
2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 1,013 0 110 74 184 35 5 523 153 118

Sources: The Airline Monitor, May 2000 (deliveries); CSFB Global Commercial Aerospace Monthly, May 2000 (orders).

Note: The Boeing 737 includes three model versions: 737-200 (1967-1988), 737-3/500 (1984-present), and 737-6/900 (1997-present).

3
Exhibit 4A

Exhibit 4A        Financial Statements ($ millions)

The Boeing Companya Airbus Industrie


1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Balance Sheet
Cash and Short-term Investments $3,730 $5,469 $4,420 $2,741 $3,554
Total Assets 22,040 37,880 38,024 36,672 36,147
Total Debt 2,615 7,489 6,854 6,972 6,732
Income Statement
Sales 32,960 35,453 45,800 56,154 57,993 $9,600 $8,800 $11,600 $13,300 $16,700
Depreciation and amortization 1,306 1,267 1,458 1,622 1,645
EBIT (316) 2,618 (355) 1,567 3,349 NA NA 335 579 896b
Net Income (36) 1,818 (178) 1,120 2,309
Market Value
Number of Shares (millions) 344 347 973 938 871
Stock Price (year end) 78 107 49 33 41
Bond Rating AA AA AA AA- AA-
Market Share (% by Units)
Deliveries 67.5% 68.1% 67.3% 70.7% 66.9% 32.5% 31.9% 32.7% 29.3% 33.1%
Orders NA 71.1% 56.1% 53.6% 45.2% NA 28.9% 43.9% 46.4% 54.8%

Sources: Boeing Annual Reports; Airbus Industrie Website; The Airline Monitor, July 2000; The Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000, p. A28.

a
Boeing acquired McDonnell Douglas on August 1, 1997. The income statement and balance sheet data (except for 1995 balance sheet) reflect the combined financial statements.

b
EADS Offering Memorandum dated July 9, 2000, p. 48. Because launch aid was ganted to the partners, not to Airbus, the partners recognized the effects of launch aid on their own
financial statements. In 1999, BAE Systems (a 20% owner) reported a loss of £42 million ($67 million) after launch aid repayment.

4
Exhibit 4B

Exhibit 4B        Airbus Partners at Year­end 1999 ( millions)a

EADS Participants

DaimlerChrysler Construcciones
BAE Systems Aerospatiale Aerospace AG Aeronáuticas SA
PLC Matra S.A.b (DASA)b (CASA)b EADSc
(U.K.) (France) (Germany) (Spain) (pro forma)

Ownership of Airbus Industrie 20.0% 37.9% 37.9% 4.2% 80.0%


Balance Sheet
Cash and Short-term Investments e1,306 e759 e3,958 e570 e3,175
Fixed Assets 13,742 8,218 1,576 192 19,591
Total Assets 28,079 16,194 9,737 1,268 35,640
Total Debt 5,122 3,681 217 110 5,696
Stockholder’s Equity 11,991 1,778 2,397 507 8,123
Income Statement
Revenues 14,381 12,236 7,455 931 22,553
Cost of Sales 8,823 (9,624) (5,914) (735) (18,278)
Gross Margin 789 2,612 1,541 196 4,275
Income before income taxes 739 750 461 114 815
Net Income (loss) 522 (644) (39) 74 (1,009)

100% Spanish
Ownership 100% Public 48% French State 100% Publicd State
3% Lagardere
17% Public
2% Employees
Market Capitalization (e)b 18.5 8.6 59.1d
S&P Bond Rating A A- A+d NA

Source: EADS Offering Memorandum, July 9, 2000; BAE Systems 1999 Annual Report.

a
The e/$ exchange rate on June 30, 2000 was e1=$0.9545; The e/£ exchange rate on June 30, 2000 was e1=£0.6209.
b
Presented in accordance with International Accounting Standards (IAS).
c
Unaudited, pro-forma consolidation of Aerospatiale Matra, DASA, and CASA after accounting adjustments and eliminations. Different forms of accounting
recognition (full consolidation vs. equity method) prevent the amounts from summing across the EADS participants. EADS net loss is due to an
extraordinary charge of e1.9 billion related to foreign currency hedging positions.

d
This figure refers to the parent corporation, DaimlerChrysler AG.

5
Exhibit 6

Exhibit 6        Comparison of Boeing and Airbus 20­Year Market Forecasts (by year of forecast)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Forecast Period to 2014 to 2015 to 2016 to 2017 to 2018 to 2019

Passenger Traffic Growth (per year)


Airbus 5.1% NA 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%
Boeing 5.1% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.8%

Commercial Aircraft in Operation (in 20 years)


Airbus 16,588 NA 17,184 17,920 22,506 22,620
Boeing (including regional jets <70 seats) 20,683 23,080 23,600 26,200 28,400 31,755

Deliveries of New Comm. Aircraft (over 20 years)


Airbus 12,933 NA 13,758 15,518 15,500 15,364
Boeing 15,462 15,900 16,160 17,650 20,150 22,315

Value of 20-Year Market for New Aircraft ($ billions)


Airbus NA NA NA $1,170 $1,290 $1,310
Boeing $1,000 $1,100 $1,100 $1,250 $1,380 $1,490

Deliveries of VLA Passenger Aircraft ( 500 seats)


Airbus 1,374 NA 1,442 1,332 1,208 1,235
Boeing NA NA 460 405 365 330

Deliveries of Large Cargo Aircrafta


Airbus NA NA NA NA 301 315
Boeing NA NA NA NA 275 270

Sources: Boeing Current Market Outlook, Airbus Global Market Forecast, and casewriter estimates. (Airbus did not issue a GMF in 1996 and did not publish data on the cargo
market until 1999).

a
Includes both the Boeing 747-400 and the Airbus A3XX.

6
Exhibit 8

Exhibit 8        Estimated Market for Very Large Aircraft (VLA, >500 seats) by 2019

Estimated Assumed Potential


Seats in Estimated Retirements Total New Conversion Market for Estimated
Commercial Annual Seats Needed and Seats to VLA VLA Seats VLA
Aircraft Fleet in 1999 Growth in 2019 Conversions Required Aircraft Aircraft per VLA Market
(A) (B) (C=[1+B]20) (D) (E=C-A+D) (F) (G=E*F) (H) (I=G/H)

A-330 40,300 5.00% 106,928 1,000 67,628 10.0% 6,763 12


A-340 48,300 5.00% 128,154 1,000 80,854 10.0% 8,085 15
777-2/300 90,650 5.60% 269,554 1,500 180,404 10.0% 18,040 33
747-1/2/300 134,550 6.00% 431,520 127,697 424,667 35.0% 148,633 270
747-400 191,907 7.00% 742,620 34,935 585,648 85.0% 497,800 905
Total 505,707 1,678,776 166,132 1,339,201 679,323 550 1,235

Sources: Casewriter estimates; Lehman Brothers Equity Research Report, December 6, 1999; Airbus Industrie Global Market Forecast 2000.

Notes:
(D) Retirements are based on current fleet age and composition.
(H) The number of seats per VLA is a function of the mix of plane types.
(I) Does not include VLA freighters, which could represent another 315 new aircraft to be delivered by 2019, according to Airbus.

7
Exhibit 9

Exhibit 9        Fleet  Composition for the 15 Largest Boeing 747 Operators in 1997

1997 Widebody Fleet 2001 Widebody Fleet

1997-2001
747's as 747's as Growth in
Headquarters' % of % of Widebody
Airline Location 747's Total Total 747's Total Total Fleet Size

1 Japan Airlines Asia 79 130 60.8% 73 136 53.7% 4.6%


2 British Airways Europe 69 117 59.0% 71 140 50.7% 19.7%
3 United Airlines US 51 153 33.3% 45 161 28.0% 5.2%
4 Singapore Airlines Asia 48 83 57.8% 53 104 51.0% 25.3%
5 Korean Air Asia 45 86 52.3% 39 89 43.8% 3.5%
6 Air France Europe 43 74 58.1% 33 86 38.4% 16.2%
7 Northwest Airlines US 43 80 53.8% 42 86 48.8% 7.5%
8 All Nippon Airlines Asia 38 109 34.9% 34 113 30.1% 3.7%
9 Cathay Pacific Asia 38 59 64.4% 33 68 48.5% 15.3%
10 KLM Europe 32 51 62.7% 33 53 62.3% 3.9%
11 Qantas Australia 30 60 50.0% 34 63 54.0% 5.0%
12 Lufthansa Europe 30 67 44.8% 29 83 34.9% 23.9%
13 Saudi Arabian Airlines Mid-East 28 65 43.1% 26 64 40.6% -1.5%
14 China Airlines Asia 18 34 52.9% 22 41 53.7% 20.6%
15 Air China International Asia 18 31 58.1% 22 44 50.0% 41.9%

Total 610 1,199 50.9% 589 1,331 44.3% 11.0%

Source: Aviation Week and Space Technology Aerospace Sourcebook 2000.

Note: Widebody jets include Boeing's 747, 767, MD-11, L10-111, and 777, and Airbus' A300, A310, A330, and A340.

8
Exhibit 10

Exhibit 10         Airbus Development Expenditure by Year ($ millions)

Investment 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total

R&D Expenditure $1,100 $2,200 $2,200 $2,200 $1,320 $880 $660 $440 $11,000
Capital Expenditures 0 250 350 350 50 0 0 0 $1,000
Working Capital 0 150 300 300 200 50 0 0 $1,000
Total R&D Cost $1,100 $2,600 $2,850 $2,850 $1,570 $930 $660 $440 $13,000

Source: Dresdner Kleinwort Benson, Aereospace and Defense Report, May 8, 2000.

9
Exhibit 11

Exhibit 12        Airbus A3XX Orders as of July 26, 2000

A3XX Orders Orders Options Total

Announced Orders
Air France 10 - 10
Emirates 7 5 12
International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC) 5 5 10
Total 22 10 32

Probable Orders
Atlas Aira 8 6 14
Federal Expressa 10 5 15
Singapore Airlines 10 6 16
Virgin Atlantic 6 4 10
Total 34 21 55

Potential Orders
Cathay Pacific 6 4 10
Cargoluxa 6 4 10
Korean Air 6 4 10
Malaysian Airways 6 4 10
Qantas 6 4 10
Total 30 20 50

Total Potential Orders 86 51 137

Source: Lehman Brothers Aerospace and Defense Report, June 23, 2000; The Wall Street Journal,
July 26, 2000, p. A21.

a
Denotes cargo operator.