Review of “To Tax or Not
to Tax: Alternative
Approaches to Slowing
Global Warming”
Fabi Fliervoet (2141221)
Ben Kubbinga (2153742)
Environmental Economics
Environmental Resource Management
VU Amsterdam
Assessors: Pieter van Beukering &
Wouter Botzen
November 04, 2010
The article “To Tax or Not to Tax: Alternative Approaches to slowing Global Warming” was written by
professor of Economics, W. Nordhaus. The main topic of the paper deals with the effectiveness of a
carbon tax compared to a more regulated, quantity‐oriented mechanism – eventually preferring a tax‐
based approach in the context of global systems. Our evaluation of his paper show that his analysis is of
importance, but weak points hinders the discussion on mitigating global Climate Change.
Overall Summary
The context of Nordhaus’ article is the control of global warming, which the author refers to as a global
public good1. The objective of the article is to compare a quantity‐based approach to control carbon
emissions (Kyoto Protocol) to a price‐type approach (internationally harmonized carbon taxes).
Nordhaus combines both a qualitative and a quantitative methodology. His qualitative arguments are
based upon economic theory and practice, while quantitative data are derived from the Regional
Integrated model of Climate and Economy (RICE; Nordhaus 2001). The principle conclusion is that
carbon taxes likely present a more simple solution to control global warming than the cap‐and‐trade
system under the Kyoto Protocol. Nordhaus bases his conclusion on three arguments: unlike a quantity‐
based approach, 1. carbon taxes do not use baselines for setting prices and quantities; 2. carbon taxes
are less sensitive to uncertainty (nonlinear effects), volatility and corruption; and 3. carbon taxes do not
depend on scarcity created through an artificial market. Open issues are: how tax rates can be collected
(for instance through IMF); and how tax rates can be measured, taking into account the indirect effects
of supply and demand elasticities (for instance with conversion ratios); and how initial carbon taxes
should be calculated.
The Main Strong Points
Nordhaus’ article is a great contribution to the discussions of different policy instruments based on a
comparative approach. The author sketches out a clear relationship with other works in the policy field,
with his efforts on the advantages of the carbon tax approach being a well thought out contribution to
the climate change policy setting. The argumentation is convincing and straightforward, with an
accessible writing style. This is very helpful given that research of environmental problems usually
contain a wide audience, permitting experts from different fields and non‐experts to join the discussion
on policy instruments for carbon reduction. Finally, Nordhaus makes an explicitly clear problem
statement, with the following claims and arguments being consistent throughout.
1
Nordhaus explicitly refers to global warming as a public global good, whereas the use of the term ‘atmosphere’ or
‘clean air’ might have been more applicable. This point is also discussed under ‘The main weak points’ in this
review.
1
The highlighting of key problems of quantity based approaches is a strong content point. As carbon
trading systems recently developed and was later critically analyzed, Nordhaus makes an excellent case
for not to continue the quantity approach, reasons which we will see here below.
Furthermore he emphasizes that in contrast to the carbon trading system, taxing is a neutral approach
due to the equal distribution of costs. Simplicity and ease of implementation in this time‐pressed issue
are of significant importance. Noteworthy is that as soon as a price is assigned to costs and benefits, this
can be straightforwardly be compared in an economic matter.
A well‐argued position that the author argued is the reduced volatility of markets as a result of the tax
approach. This is caused by the prices assigned to costs and benefits which provide a more accurate
picture of what is going on in the market. In contrast with the carbon trading system there is no fake
sense of desirable quantities which can significantly threaten the long term stability of the market.
Moreover, since the tax approach disables the false sense of insufficiency there is a reduced chance of
the powerful elite abusing the system. This aspect can also be related to the transparency of the tax
based approach which draws on its simplicity.
The Main Weak Points
While the article does a good job in clarifying key points and issues relating to certain policy
instruments, its arguments tend to be assumptive or based on personal observations. The assumptions
rely heavily on the effectiveness of previous policy experiences, which does not automatically translate
in working solutions of current problems. Also, the author makes minimal use of references when
generating statements or definitions; as a result his statements tend to be derived from a self reflective
approach than from reliable cited sources, or shall we say an “economically common sense” approach. A
good example is the ambiguous and incomplete definition of global public goods (see page 27). Also,
keywords such as “several studies” (page 30) without in text cited sources further emphasize the lack of
will to share his sources.
The organization of the text could be better structured for such a comparative analysis article. While
comparing price and quantity approaches, the paper focused more on the costs of Kyoto Protocol and
the benefits applying a tax‐based approach. A fairer and more honest assessment would include a
complete qualitative analysis of the potentially real benefits of the quantity approach (Kyoto Protocol).
Also we believe that the negative aspects of a tax‐based system could have been explored in more
detail, especially in the case of corruption due to administrative issues. While his arguments for the
relative amount of corruption might be higher in the quantity based approach, it is not a sufficient
argument to claim that the tax approach is not sensitive to high levels of corruption. Tax‐administrations
are often corrupted, with tax officers subject to bribes to fraud the compliance of taxes. The double
dividend argument suffers as well, firstly with trading schemes actually generating revenue, and
secondly, carbon tax can still be distinguished as a distortionary tax. Revenues from the carbon taxes can
be used to incentivize other carbon emissions reductions strategies, but the mitigation could itself be
distortionary, e.g. lowering income tax with carbon tax revenues. All in all, a more rigid structure that
leaves no space for disregarding other important arguments will help a great deal, by balancing the pros
and cons of the comparative study successfully.
Another distressing point is the use of models without clearly discussing the major limitations such a
tool can imply. While in the field of Climate Change discussion does include significant use of models
due to the major uncertainties that embody the science, limitations and the validity of results are
usually always extensively scrutinized. The RICE model applied by Nordhaus that simulates differing
policies with global warming impact (page 30) is a pivotal point in the discussion, with the main
argument stating that a significant amount of total carbon emissions will be reduced with a tax‐based
approached. Moreover, the model shows that this tax‐based approach will carry out carbon reductions
in an economical efficient way if there is an equal distribution of marginal costs globally in space and
time, with appropriate discounting. However, details of the model are missing in the discussion, without
knowing which parameters in the model accounting for the drive in marginal costs of carbon reductions,
whether it is industries, other institutions, agriculture, natural environmental impacts or other sources.
This is important, as such that an optimal carbon tax is derived from these models, and the real
marginalized costs have to be best estimated with a transparent and validated model in order for
markets to work efficiently.
Several questions arise when assessing the content in the article, with some reservations in the made
arguments. For example, it is not completely clear who or which groups benefits or accrues costs if a
certain carbon tax is implemented. While examples of additional taxes on the energy markets were
mentioned that might have no net effect (page 40), not much attention was put on the position of
developing nations and on the income‐poor in developed nations. This needs to be considered, as to
make the carbon tax efficient, it has to be implemented globally.
An important assumption was not mentioned in the paper. While a price based approach might have a
higher success rate, it will be a novel feature at an international level that would encounter opposition
in international agreements with different perceptions of taxes. Also, differing interests of industries
might unleash a string of lobbyists, with these lobbyists fiercely tackling tax proposals. Therefore, it
could take some time before proposals turn into real carbon emission reductions.
Conclusion
Nordhaus’ analysis is indeed useful for comparing the optimal strategy with alternatives, but is
confounded with a level of fuzziness when it comes to the estimation of cost/benefit ratios, structure of
argumentation and finally leaving out important portions of the analysis that are necessary for a fair
comparison. We argue, that this type of analysis is sufficient for climate change discussions, and we
would like to stress the major benefits of the simplicity of a tax‐based scheme that would gather higher
carbon emission reductions – with action now gaining more results than waiting it out. Further
recommendations would include a better framework for the comparison analysis, perhaps graphical
tools to support his message, critique on his models, and round up the discussion by including benefits
of carbon trading systems and detailed assumptive costs of the tax‐based approach.
Cited Reference
Nordhaus,William D. 2001. Global warming economics. Science 294: 12 83–84.