Long confined to historians and sociologists, the study of immigration has garnered increased
interest among political scientists. Two dominant schools—the globalization and embedded
realist theses—have attempted to account for the gap between restrictionist intentions of govern-
ments and continuing immigration (the gap hypothesis). The globalization thesis argues that
international norms and institutions limit governments’ ability to control migration; the embed-
ded realist thesis counters that limits on state autonomy are domestic. This article argues that
although the embedded realist thesis is on stronger conceptual ground, both fail to account for
two central categories of immigrants to Europe: colonial immigrants to France and Britain and
asylum seekers to Germany. Drawing on historical institutionalist work, this article employs a
path-dependent analysis to account for these categories. Against their own wishes, governments
found themselves accepting larger migrations and naturalizations because of the path-dependent
effects of their own citizenship and constitutional regimes.
GLOBALIZATION, EMBEDDED
REALISM, AND PATH DEPENDENCE
The Other Immigrants to Europe
RANDALL HANSEN
University of Oxford
AUTHOR’S NOTE: For comments, my thanks to Erik Bleich, James A. Caporaso, Matthew
Gibney, Ira Katznelson, Desmond King, Robert Lieberman, Iain McLean, Jeannette Money, and
the journal’s three anonymous referees.
COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES, Vol. 35 No. 3, April 2002 259-283
© 2002 Sage Publications
259
260 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
the postwar years with largely homogeneous populations; all enter a new
century with non-European citizens and permanent residents ranging from
5% to 10% of the population. Issues linked with immigration, race, and
multiculturalism have been at the center of domestic politics and policy for
more than two decades.2 In France, Austria, and Switzerland, the far right has
made substantial—in Austria, dramatic—gains at the local and national level;
in Germany, dual citizenship and the reform of nationality law more broadly
were among the most divisive issues faced by the Social Democratic (SPD)/
Green government elected in October 1998. Across Europe, a sharp increase
in asylum seekers in the 1990s led to a common European Union (EU)
response in the form of harmonized (and restricted) standards.
The pivotal role of migration-related issues in European politics is all the
more striking given that virtually no one would have predicted or wanted a
multicultural Europe. No North European country sought to increase its
population through permanent non-European migration, and none predicted
that those workers who were encouraged to come, or who arrived without
encouragement, would be anything but temporary guests. Indeed, one of the
constants in Europe—and perhaps even in North America—has been public
suspicion of continued immigration. As the authors of a recent study of Aus-
tralia, Canada, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom concluded,
The one major and consistent theme that is sharply and clearly defined in each
country’s responses to national public opinion polls is that in no country—
those with long histories of admitting immigrants, those with more restriction-
ist policies, and those who have consistently kept a lock on their doors—does a
majority of citizens have positive feelings about their current cohort of immi-
grants. (Simon & Lynch, 1999, p. 458; also see Martin, 1997, p. 22)
Yet 25 years after immigration was officially halted, North European soci-
eties are multicultural societies facing issues of integration—the encourage-
ment or discouragement of cultural diversity, the acceptance or prohibition of
non-Christian edicts in public life, the need to extend citizenship to perma-
nent residents—identical to those of self-avowed countries of immigration.
The transformation of Europe into a continent of immigration is one of the
most important sociological developments and one of the most intriguing
policy puzzles in postwar European politics.
This article accounts for two central aspects of postwar migration to
Europe that cannot be fully explained by existing approaches: colonial immi-
2. Terms such as culture, race, and ethnicity are inherently ambiguous. In this article, I have
opted for the term multiculturalism rather than, for example, multiracialism (which is prevalent
in the British literature), and I understand it to refer to the arrival in Western Europe of migrants
from non–Western European countries.
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 261
gration to France and Britain and the migration of asylum seekers to Ger-
many. It has three components. The first outlines the existing approaches—
the globalization and embedded realist theses—offering contrasting
accounts of why European states were forced to accept migrations for which
they had little sympathy. Both accounts, but especially the globalization the-
sis, are unable to account for (certain) categories of colonial migrants to the
United Kingdom and France or for the disproportionate number of asylum
seekers received by Germany. The second draws on the historical
institutionalist literature, particularly work on path dependence and policy
feedback. The third applies this historical institutionalist framework to the
French, British, and German cases.
3. European governments’desire to ensure that guestworker policies would be (as the name
implies) temporary is well established. See Freeman (1979) and Hollifield (1992).
4. The “gap hypothesis” was first observed by Hollifield (1986). This section draws on
Hansen (2000, Introduction).
262 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
5. Postnationalism, to summarize briefly, holds first that universal personhood has decoup-
led rights from citizenship and from identity (one can enjoy many of the rights of German citi-
zenship without being German) and second that this development resulted from the internation-
alization and universalization of human rights legislation and discourse.
6. Austria’s decision to bring Jorg Haider’s far-right Freheitliche Parteis Österreich (FPÖ)
into the governing coalition might seem to weaken this point, but it in fact strengthens it. The
condition of the FPO’s entry was its willingness to sign up—literally and metaphorically—to a
whole series of consensual, liberal European commitments, although none of this saved Austria
from the freezing of bilateral relations by all 14 other EU member states.
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 263
7. Freeman (1995) specifies the model on pages 882-885; I take these arguments directly
from them.
8. In the year 2000, both Germany and the United Kingdom announced schemes to wel-
come on a temporary basis high-skill workers to fill shortages in technology-related industries.
264 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
9. This was witnessed most recently in a spring 2000 call by Germany’s Chancellor Gerhard
Schröder for 20,000 high-tech guestworkers to address sectoral shortages in this area (Klingst,
2000). A few months later, Britain followed suit.
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 265
Table 1 presents data on France for the period up to early 1975, before or
as efforts were made to end primary and limit secondary immigration.
The important figures in the table are those on Algerians and French Mus-
lims (mostly from Algeria). Because French Muslims born in France were
French citizens at birth, they were free from deportation or any other repres-
sive government measure aimed at immigrants and resident aliens. The fact
that they were citizens at birth, however, was an anomaly placing them in a
category distinct from all other migrants; one of the foundations of French
nationality law is double ius soli; citizenship should only “kick in” at the third
generation, not the second. Why did Algerian immigrants find themselves in
this privileged position?
Broadly speaking, the British case presents a far greater difficulty for the
embedded realist thesis, because all of its colonial migrants entering the
United Kingdom before 1962 enjoyed free entry and full citizenship on arrival.
Pre-1962 British experience was nonetheless in some measure unique, and
post-1962 policy has conformed to the logic of the embedded realist thesis. In
a manner opposite to that of France, Germany, and the United States, the
absence of institutional constraints on the executive—no bill of rights, a weak
legislature, and a timid judiciary—has (a) allowed British policy makers to
translate public preferences into public policy more directly than in any other
liberal democracy and (b) resulted today in one of the tightest immigration
control regimes in the Western world (Freeman, 1994; Hansen, 2000). The
thesis nonetheless ignores a significant—numerically and even more so
politically—category of migrants: East African Asians. From 1962 until 1968,
some 200,000 Asians (broadly, those of Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi
descent) in East Africa continued to enjoy a right to enter the United King-
dom against the wishes of the U.K. government. They did so in ever-larger
numbers: from approximately 2,000 per year in the early to mid-1960s to
13,600 in 1967 alone.10 The British government, with an eye on the potential
global total of 200,000, closed the door on March 1, 1968. The decision cre-
ated the most divisive immigration crisis of postwar British history. It was
bitterly opposed by Labour’s most important supporters, it divided both the
10. Statistics on the movement of East African Asians are difficult to obtain, as they entered
with British passports and were thus poorly recorded by immigration officers. I have taken these
from Home Office (interior ministry) pronouncements at the time and the diaries of cabinet min-
isters. See Home Office statistics cited in The Times, “Citizens From Kenya” (1968); also see
Callaghan (1987, pp. 222-225) and Castle (1984, p. 378).
266
Table 1
Immigrants in France, 1975
Liberal and Conservative parties, and it fatally undermined the United King-
dom’s credibility in the eyes of the Commonwealth (Hansen, 1999).
What is of interest here is not only the crisis itself but the fact that it should
not have happened at all: The British Government explicitly applied 1962
immigration controls—the Commonwealth Immigrants Act—to the East
African Asians. They, like all other Commonwealth citizens, were to have no
right to enter the United Kingdom. Yet some 200,000 had done exactly that.
Why did this happen?
To summarize, two aspects of postwar immigration to France and Britain
cannot be accounted for by embedded realism: the exceptional grant of citi-
zenship (and thus protection from reprisal) to some 83,000 Algerians at birth
in France and the continued enjoyment, post–immigration control, of a right
of entry by East African Asians—one that led to the most divisive immigra-
tion-related crisis in postwar British politics.
Yet there is another way in which the embedded realist thesis falls short.
Although it convincingly accounts for why family members and asylum
seekers could not be driven out, it says little about why their movements vary
so much. Until the late 1990s, when the number of asylum figures began to
converge across Europe (largely in response to EU efforts at harmonization),
these figures varied widely. Table 2 provides an overview of asylum applica-
tions across the EU.
Thus, the preferred destination by far was Germany. It is a quantitative dif-
ference that embedded realism cannot account for, as both Germany and
other major European receiving countries (notably France) have entrenched
bills of rights and activist domestic judiciaries.11 A further factor, familiar to
students of migration, might be the solution to the puzzle. We know from
studies of immigration patterns that migrants prefer countries (a) in which
their language is spoken, (b) that already host migrants with the same nation-
ality, and/or (c) that are otherwise viewed as culturally similar (Loescher,
1993, pp. 17-18). No one speaks German but the Germans, Austrians, and
11. There is, to be sure, a gap between those seeking asylum and those granted it. The number
of applications is nonetheless still the greatest predictor of the number remaining: The percent-
age of those accepted is no lower in Germany than in France and Britain (and is often higher),
leading to larger acceptances; many of those denied end up with the right to remain (Duldung, or
tolerated status, in Germany; or permanent leave to remain in Britain); and some simply remain
in the country illegally. Deportation is unpopular, expensive, subject to constant delay and
appeal, and as a result is an ineffective tool for controlling immigration to Europe. On the norma-
tive issues raised by asylum seekers, see Gibney (1999); on deportation, see Gibney & Hansen
(2001).
268
Table 2
Asylum Seekers in Select European Countries, 1985-1997 (in thousands)
Country 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Austria 6.7 8.7 11.4 15.8 21.9 22.8 27.3 16.2 4.7 5.1 5.9 7.0 6.7 13.8
Belgium 5.3 7.7 6.0 5.1 8.1 13.0 15.2 17.8 26.9 14.3 11.4 12.4 11.8 22
Denmark 8.7 9.3 2.8 4.7 4.6 5.3 4.6 13.9 14.4 6.7 5.1 5.9 5.1 5.7
Finland — — — — 0.2 2.5 2.1 3.6 2.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 — —
France 25.8 23.4 24.8 31.6 60.0 56.0 46.5 28.9 27.6 26.0 20.2 17.2 21 22.4
Germany 73.9 99.7 57.4 103.1 121.0 193.0 256.0 438.2 322.6 127.2 127.9 116.4 151.7 98.6
Greece 1.4 4.3 6.3 9.3 6.5 4.1 2.7 2.0 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 — —
Ireland — — — — — 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.2 — —
Italy 5.4 6.5 11.0 1.3 2.2 4.7 31.7 2.6 1.6 1.8 1.7 0.6 — —
Luxembourg — — — — — 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 — —
Netherlands 5.7 5.9 13.5 7.5 14.0 21.2 21.6 20.3 35.4 52.5 29.3 22.9 34.4 45.2
Norway 0.9 2.7 8.6 6.6 4.4 4.0 4.6 5.2 12.9 3.4 1.5 1.8 — —
Portugal 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 0.6 0.5 0.3 — —
Spain 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.3 4.0 8.6 8.1 11.7 12.6 12.0 5.7 4.7 — —
Sweden 14.5 14.6 18.1 19.6 32.0 29.0 27.3 84.0 37.6 18.6 9.0 5.8 — —
Switzerland 9.7 8.6 10.9 16.7 24.4 36.0 41.6 18.0 24.7 16.1 17.0 18.0 24 41.3
United Kingdom 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.7 16.8 38.2 73.4 32.3 28.0 42.2 55.0 27.9 32.5 46
Totals — — — — — 438.7 563.2 695.5 554.2 329.1 293.1 244.5 — —
Source: Salt (1999), U.S. Committee for Refugees (1999).
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 269
some of the Swiss, but factors (b) and perhaps (c) are clearly important. Ger-
many has a large Turkish and Yugoslavian community—the latter made up a
large percentage of 1990s entrants—and the country has long historical ties
to Eastern Europe (Ash, 1993, Introduction and Conclusion). But this
accounts for only part of the movement and in some measure restates the
question: How did these individuals, if they entered as asylum seekers, get
into Germany in the first place?
In sum, whatever the analytical power of the embedded realist thesis—and
it is in migration studies the most sophisticated explanatory framework going—
it fails to account for both particular categories of immigrants (colonial
immigrants to France and Britain) and variations within one category it
delineates (the massive arrival of asylum seekers in Germany). Quantita-
tively, this amounts to literally hundreds of thousands of individuals; qualita-
tively, these numbers represent—in addition to obvious personal histories
and life chances—numerous political issues (housing, social services, public
opposition, support for the extreme right, race, and integration policy) spin-
ning off from them. Algerians’ easy access to French citizenship became a
national political issue in the 1980s, and the racist Front National placed it at
the center of its campaigns. The ultimate withdrawal of the East Africans’
exemption was the most divisive immigration legislation in postwar British
history. In Germany, asylum became one of the most explosive issues of the
early 1990s, fueling public opposition and, in 1992, racist attacks that
shocked the nation and raised (unrealized) fears of a return to significant far
right politics.
12. For classic applications in economic history, see Arthur (1989). For a critique of path
dependence (and especially Paul David’s work), see Liebowitz and Margolis (1990).
270 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
Path dependence does not simply mean that “history matters.” This is both true
and trivial. Path dependence has to mean, if it is to mean anything, that once a
country or region has started down a track, the costs of reversal are very high.
There will be other choice points, but the entrenchments of certain institutional
arrangements obstruct an easy reversal of the initial choice. Perhaps the better
metaphor is a tree, rather than a path. From the same trunk, there are many dif-
ferent branches and smaller branches. Although it is possible to turn around or
to clamber from one to the other—and essential if the chosen branch dies—the
branch on which a climber begins is the one she tends to follow. (p. 27)
The important point is that it has to be more than “history matters.” Path
dependence has to be more than the claim that “what has happened at an ear-
lier point in time will affect the possible outcomes of a sequence of events at a
later point in time” (Sewell, 1996, pp. 262-263). This is simply to say that any
given constellation of events, interests, and actors is determined by multiple
events in the past, from the micro-personal—Bill Clinton went into public
life, rather than remaining a lawyer, which made 1990s’ U.S. politics differ-
ent from what it might have been—to the macro-historical—the fact that
Wall Street crashed in 1929 and not 1939 (when the German economy might
have been on a solid footing), positively affected the Nazi rise to power. It is a
claim that (a) would make most historians’ eyes glaze over in its obviousness
and (b) says nothing about “exit” capabilities from a given historical track
(Pierson, 1998).13
So why, then, does the original entrenchment create a limiting effect?
There is no consensus in the literature on this point, but Krasner (1988), who
popularized the logic behind path dependence among political scientists,
suggests a useful standard: “The basic characteristic of an institutional argu-
ment is that prior institutional choices limit available future options.” The
range of options available at any point in time is constrained by extant institu-
tional capabilities, and these capabilities are themselves a product of choices
made during some earlier period (pp. 71-72). To put it another way, path
dependence occurs when a decision limits the range of available options at
subsequent points and, in so doing, encourages continuity in the form of a
retention of the original choice.
Political scientists are divided about whether path dependence predicts
and identifies causal mechanisms or, most skeptically, is little more than a
rich metaphor for policy continuity.14 This debate will continue (Thelen,
1999), and it suffices to note that there are at least two prerequisites to speak-
ing coherently, as distinct from merely fashionably, about path dependence:
the delineation of moments at which a path-dependent effect is exhibited and
the specification of the mechanisms channeling it. In the former, this involves
proving causal effect at the choice points; path dependence is established
only when it can be shown that policy change was considered and rejected for
reasons that cannot be explained without reference to the structure of costs
and incentives created by the original policy choice.15 If at least a residue of
path dependence—in addition to the better known factors of interest group
lobbying, public opinion, incrementalism, and so forth—cannot be isolated,
then there was no effect. In politics, two mechanisms engender a path-
dependent effect: “lock-in,” when certain options are rendered wholly unat-
tainable by original choices, and still more so, “disincentive effects,” when
original choices make future options not impossible but deeply unattractive
to policy makers.16
The relationship between path dependence and policy feedback (and, one
could add, related and equally fashionable if imprecise terms such as contin-
gency, punctuated equilibrium, and critical junctures) is often unclear. To
begin with a definition of the latter, feedback effects are independent vari-
ables generated when public policies adopted at one point in time have a
causal influence on political actors and political options at a later time; public
policies are both a dependent variable at time t and an independent variable at
time t + 1 (Krasner, 1988, p. 72).17 In this vein, Pierson (1993) has identified
feedback effects as instances in which “policies produce politics,” when they
“themselves [are] politically consequential structures” (p. 597).
For the purposes of analytical clarity, it is useful to view path dependence
as a particular type of positive feedback effect. When policy at one point lim-
its choice points at subsequent points, it engenders feedback in the form of
path dependence; to explain how, it is necessary to turn to the cases
themselves.
With this framework in mind, what I want to argue is that large patterns of
colonial immigration—a significant part of overall immigration to Europe
15. In qualitative social science, as Berman (1998) argues, determining causality involves
meeting two conditions: “first, establishing a connection between the proposed independent and
dependent variables, and, second, explaining why this connection exists—showing precisely
how the independent variables influence the dependent one” (p. 18). Also see Hansen and King
(2001, p. 242).
16. See Arthur (1988) on lock-in as a particular time of self-reinforcing, or path-dependent,
effect; and David (1985) on how QWERTY locked in as the standard keyboard over other, more
efficient, keyboards.
17. The particular interest in public policies as causal variables is one of the features distin-
guishing it from the broader school of historical institutionalism, which examines a wider range
272 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
of institutions—according to the most influential definition, “the formal rules, compliance pro-
cedures, and standard operating practices that structure the relationship between individuals in
various units of the polity and economy” (Hall, 1986, p. 19).
18. In the summer of 1996, Le Pen stated during an interview that Blacks were inferior to
Whites, and that most of the French believed this. See Le Monde, September 17, 1996.
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 273
19. On Le Front National, see Mayer and Perrineau (1989) and Schain (1994). It is some-
thing of an irony that the issue was first taken up by the Left and extreme Left and then later by the
extreme Right. For the Left, the issue was partly one of allegiance but really one of military ser-
vice; for the Right, the reverse was true.
20. Such individuals are referred to as français de papier or français sur le papier.
21. To be clear, I am of course not arguing that the whole phenomenon of the Front National
can be explained with reference to path dependence; it is rather that the path-dependent effect of
nationality law—leading to the automatic attribution of citizenship at the first rather than second
generation—handed the racist Front a further stick with which to beat ethnic minorities in
France.
22. On the Front National’s support in the 1980s, see Schain (1987).
23. The Article was 19.3 of the Code Civil (Code de la Nationalité) but is now Article 23.
Article 24 gives the child who is born of only one French parent the right to repudiate French
nationality. See Code (1993, p. 13). On the 1851 reform, see Brubaker (1992, pp. 93-94).
274 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
legally correct and passionately held, especially on the Right. The result was
that the children born in France of parents themselves born in Algeria essen-
tially skipped a generation; they were French at birth (Lagarde, 1996, p. 314).24
As a result, they were insulated from the (unsuccessful) repressive measures
enacted by France in the early 1970s and were the source of the three crises—
of loyalty, dual citizenship, and the far right—that emerged in the 1980s. The
Algerian issue in French politics was thus a function of the legal status of
Algeria, following the triggering mechanism of Algerian independence,
feeding back onto the 1889 nationality law.
In 1968, the United Kingdom faced the most divisive immigration crisis
since the war. Asians, the victim of Africanization policies that swept East
Africa in the 1960s and 1970s, were being driven out of Kenya.25 They
arrived in the United Kingdom in ever-larger numbers, and, under massive
criticism, the British government introduced legislation blocking their
arrival. The decision was considered the basest, most racist taken by any Brit-
ish government (Steel, 1969, Preface). It was bitterly attacked by migrant
organizations in the United Kingdom (“Hasty Law Makes Bad Cases,” 1968;
“A Shameful and Unnecessary Act,” 1968). The European Commission on
Human Rights condemned it as a violation of the European Convention on
Human Rights; Anthony Lester, a human rights lawyer involved in the draft-
ing of U.K. legislation against racial discrimination, claims to this day that
the legislation was the most shameful ever passed by a British government
(private correspondence). If there was a moment when British migration pol-
icy appeared to be trapped in a downward spiral of racism and populist
appeasement, it was 1968.
Except, as the British government argued (Callaghan, 1987, pp. 214-
215),26 the Asians were not supposed to have had the right to enter the United
Kingdom. The Commonwealth Immigrants Act of 1962, which ended all free
entry from the Commonwealth, was meant to apply to Asians as to all colonial/
24. Algerians were automatically French at birth from 1962 to January 1, 1994, and have
been again since March 4, 1998. Between 1993 and 1998, following the Pasqua law, they were
French at birth if their parents had lived in France for 5 years. The pre-1993 provisions have been
restored by the socialist/communist/green coalition, elected in 1997, through the Guigou law.
25. I use the term Asian as it is used in the British literature: to refer to individuals from the
Indian subcontinent.
26. Callaghan was the Home Secretary who enacted the Commonwealth Immigrants Act of
1968, blocking the Asians’ entry.
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 275
Commonwealth immigrants (who had had free entry until then). Their ex-
emption reflected the path-dependent consequences of legislation adopted in
1948 combined with the feedback effects of 1962 legislation.
In 1948, the British government adopted a definition of citizenship
encompassing “colonial subjects” and Britons under the same scheme: Citi-
zenship of the United Kingdom and Colonies (CUKC). Colonial migrants
could enter the United Kingdom freely until 1962 and did so as CUKCs. In
that year, the British government, following a popular reaction against colo-
nial immigrants, ended the right of entry. Given that CUKC had outlived its
usefulness, the logical thing to do would have been to replace this citizenship
with a British citizenship for Britons and some other legal status for colonial
migrants. The British government appointed a committee to examine this
option, but the committee rejected it for two reasons. First, reforming the
1948 scheme, which linked the still-substantial empire, would be too compli-
cated. Second, it would have been resisted by the colonies themselves, which
believed CUKC to be a superior, or at least less patronizing, status than colo-
nial subjecthood. Deciding, on the basis of this sort of cost-benefit analysis,
that the 1948 law was too complicated to overhaul—that is, following path
dependence exercised through incentive effects—the government instead
based immigration control on the issue of passports. If a passport was issued
under London’s authority, it was free from immigration control; if it was
issued under the authority of a colonial governor—in Jamaica, Hong Kong,
or Uganda—it was subject to control.
This fateful decision, determined by the path-dependent consequences,
led in conjunction with the independence of African states to the Asians’
release from immigration control. At independence, some 200,000 Asians,
fearing African reprisal,27 did not take or were denied local Kenyan citizen-
ship, remaining CUKCs. Under normal circumstances, this would have
meant nothing. In the context of the 1962 immigration control scheme (con-
ditioned by the 1948 law), its consequences were profound. Passports issued
pre-independence under the authority of the colonial governor in Kenya were
issued post-independence under London’s authority (as the colonial gover-
nor was no more). As a result, they were immediately and unintentionally
free from the 1962 controls; the conditions for the 1968 crisis were in place.
Had the United Kingdom not passed the 1948 act, the control of immigration
would not have required a mechanism based on the authority with which
passports were issued (rather than the possession of a passport itself); had the
United Kingdom not adopted this mechanism, the Asians would have had no
27. Many Africans bitterly resented the Asians because they were wealthy middlemen whom
the former believed to be exploiters and authors of their relative poverty.
276 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
right to enter the United Kingdom.28 In the first instance, the 1948 act engen-
dered a path-dependent effect by narrowing the range of policy options avail-
able in 1962. In the second instance, policy feedback exacerbated the crisis,
as the Asians would have had no right to enter the United Kingdom on the
basis of any other mechanism.
In the 1980s, German asylum policy was in crisis. Until the 1970s, refu-
gees were largely Vertriebene (expellees from Eastern Europe) and
Übersiedler (Germans who crossed the frontier between the two states), with
a smaller number of Aussiedler—“ethnic” Germans from the Soviet Union
and Eastern Europe (Halfmann, 1997, p. 260). These individuals were not
considered refugees at all, but Germans claiming a right to their citizenship;
in the decade after 1951, approximately 3.5 million arrived in West Germany
(Hoffmann-Nowotny, 1978, p. 89).29 Other asylum seekers (mostly from
Eastern Europe) were welcomed—as they were across Europe and the United
States—as refugees from Communism. In the 1980s, the situation reversed
itself. With the most liberal asylum laws in the Western world, Germany
became a magnet for refugees and economic migrants from all corners of the
poverty-stricken and war-torn globe. The number of arrivals surpassed
100,000 in 1980 and was double that figure by 1990. By 1985, 45% of all asy-
lum applications in Europe were made in West Germany (Joly, Kelly, &
Nettleton, 1997). By 1990, a united Germany received more than 50% of the
applications: 193,000 people in that year (Ausländerpolitik, 2000, p. 89). In
1992, the country processed 438,000 asylum seekers.
By the mid-1980s, the asylum issue became a political time bomb. Severe
pressures at the Länder and local level, where the asylum seekers were inte-
grated, led to regional calls for an end to the historical right. The government
first responded to these pressures through bureaucratic fine tuning: Germany
expanded detention of those awaiting decisions, implemented “fast-track”
procedures from countries deemed safe, sped up procedures leading to refus-
als of entry and expulsions, and imposed sanctions on airlines carrying asy-
28. Kenya might have attempted to drive the Asians out in any case, and the United Kingdom
would have faced strong pressure to grant them entry; but the Asians would have had no right to
enter the United Kingdom, and the country would not have been forced to confront the singularly
divisive decision of stripping its citizens of an extant right in the full gaze of international
opinion.
29. The Aussiedler’s relatively warm welcome ended in the late 1980s, when the number of
arrivals skyrocketed, reaching more than 200,000 per year after 1989. Today, their claim to citi-
zenship is viewed with suspicion by a majority of Germans. See Ohliger and Münz (1997).
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 277
In the past few years, asylum was invoked not only by politically persecuted
individuals, but to an increasing extent also by aliens who do not qualify for the
status of a person entitled to asylum; they start an asylum procedure only for
the purpose of staying in the Federal Republic of Germany and taking up gain-
ful employment. (Germany: Federal Ministry of the Interior, 1991, pp. 61-62)
Yet the minister’s hands were tied, and the law was not changed until 1993.
Why?
The answer lies in a minor (at the time) decision taken after the war. In
1948, Article 16 of the German constitution (Grundgesetz, or basic law)
included a clause granting the right of asylum to anyone claiming political
persecution.30 At the time, the clause was innocuous. It was part of a postwar
revulsion against the Nazi treatment of minorities and a recognition that Ger-
mans persecuted by the regime had been granted asylum elsewhere in Europe
(Ash, 1993, p. 241; Gibney, 1993, p. 375). It was added at a time when the
German economy (and Germany itself) was only beginning to recover from
total devastation. Most European refugees at the time (displaced persons)
were either Germans themselves31 or direct or indirect victims of Nazi crimes
against Europe; for the latter, Germany would not have been a preferred
choice. Indeed, many Germans themselves tried to claim asylum status to
escape their razed and impoverished country, although their deliberate exclu-
sion from early postwar asylum measures made this extremely difficult
(Cohen, 2000). Few would have predicted that Germany would ever be a des-
tination for asylum seekers.
The fact that the right of asylum was in the German constitution alone
would have militated against its abandonment.32 Amending the German con-
30. “Politisch Verfolgte geniessen Asylrecht.” The official German translation is, “Persons
persecuted on political grounds shall enjoy the right of asylum” (see The Basic Law of the Fed-
eral Republic of Germany, 1977). It should be noted that the right to asylum in domestic law dif-
fers from the right to asylum in international law. In the former, it is a right to receive asylum; in
the latter, it is the right of the state to grant asylum. My thanks to an anonymous referee for draw-
ing attention to this.
31. That is, the some 14 million Germans expelled, in the greatest example of ethnic cleans-
ing in human history, from Germany’s 1937 borders and from elsewhere in Eastern Europe.
32. The German constitutionalization of asylum differed from other countries’, such as
France’s, in a notable respect. Whereas the German provision effectively secured a right of entry
for asylum seekers reaching German territory, France extended the equivalent right only to one
category of individuals: those deemed to have fought for liberty. As it was interpreted, very few
individuals secured asylum through this procedure: journalists in Colombia and Algerians who
278 COMPARATIVE POLITICAL STUDIES / April 2002
stitution requires two-thirds support in both the Bundestag and the Bundesrat,
a threshold that discourages all but those convinced that they will secure bipar-
tisan support for change.33 But the issue also became a cause célèbre for the
Left in Germany—known semipejoratively as Linksliberalen—who are iden-
tified by uncompromising views on military service, Germany’s Nazi past,
the peace and environmental movement, the integration of immigrants, and a
number of other issues over which Germans tear themselves apart every few
years.
The result of both was an institutional constraint on Germany’s ability to
operate an asylum policy in line with the rest of Europe and domestic public
opinion. In limiting the German state’s ability to restrict asylum, and in
engendering an unexpected and unwanted policy result—the acceptance of
hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers in the 1980s alone—the 1948 basic
law engendered path dependence.
fell outside the Geneva Convention because they were persecuted by nonstate actors. See Weil
(1997, pp. 51-56).
33. A similar structural disincentive exists in the United States. The fact that ius soli, citizen-
ship by birth, is entrenched in the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution renders it extremely
difficult to end, despite widespread opposition against the automatic grant of citizenship to the
children of illegal immigrants to the United States. As in Germany, the constitutional provision
was unrelated to migration; it was instituted to ensure that the children of freed slaves automati-
cally acquired U.S. citizenship. On this, see Schuck and Smith (1985).
Hansen / THE OTHER IMMIGRANTS TO EUROPE 279
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Randall Hansen is a tutor and fellow in politics at Merton College, University of Oxford.
He has published on citizenship, forced and voluntary migration, and asylum. He worked
with Patrick Weil on a 2-year German Marshall Fund project resulting in two volumes.
He is currently working with Desmond King on a history of eugenics and with Matthew
Gibney on an encyclopaedia of migration in the 20th century.