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  • Comm Sec Budget 2011

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    peter_martin9335
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    CommSec chief economist Craig james discusses the 2011 federal Budget. G g Conservative consumers..saving not spending saving Stimulus and slower growth..from surplus to deficit from..$22 billion over five years. Small business measures Assistance for those doing it tough.

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    CommSec chief economist Craig james discusses the 2011 federal Budget. G g Conservative consumers..saving not spending saving Stimulus and slower growth..from surplus to deficit from..$22 billion over five years. Small business measures Assistance for those doing it tough.

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    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
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    1K tayangan20 halaman

    Comm Sec Budget 2011

    Diunggah oleh

    peter_martin9335
    CommSec chief economist Craig james discusses the 2011 federal Budget. G g Conservative consumers..saving not spending saving Stimulus and slower growth..from surplus to deficit from..$22 billion over five years. Small business measures Assistance for those doing it tough.

    Hak Cipta:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Unduh sebagai PDF, TXT atau baca online dari Scribd
    Tandai sebagai konten tidak pantas
    dari 20

    The 2011 Federal Budget

    Tough or timid?
    ƒ Budget setting
    ƒ Main numbers
    ƒ Major measures
    ƒ Winners & losers
    ƒ Issue: China
    ƒ Issue: Jobs
    ƒ Issue: Interest rates
    ƒ Forecasts

    Craig James
    Chief Economist, CommSec, May 2011
    Important
    p information

    This presentation has been prepared without taking account of the


    objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual.
    Before acting on the information in this seminar, you should consider its
    appropriateness to your circumstances and, if necessary, seek
    appropriate professional advice.

    Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399


    AFSL 238814 (CommSec) is a wholly owned but non-guaranteed
    subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124
    and a Participant of the ASX Group.

    Examples used in this presentation are for illustrative purposes only.


    Budget 2011
    Budget
    g setting
    g
    Conservative consumers…
    …saving
    saving not spending
    Main numbers

    LLastt Year
    Y This Y
    Thi Year Nextt Year
    N Y Andd
    A
    2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
    Underlying
    y g budget
    g (($ billion)) -$54.8 -$49.4 -$22.6 $3.5
    Economic Growth (% change) 2.3 2.25 4.00 3.75
    Inflation (% change) 3.1 3.25 2.75 3.00
    Wages (% change) 30
    3.0 4 00
    4.00 4 00
    4.00 4 25
    4.25
    Unemployment (%, June quarter) 5.2 5.00 4.75 4.50
    Stimulus & slower growth…
    …from
    from surplus to deficit
    Major
    j measures

    ƒ Jobs,
    J b J Jobs,
    b Jobs
    J b
    ƒ Skilled migration
    ƒ Infrastructure spending
    ƒ Savings
    Sa gs totatotalling
    g $22
    $
    billion over five years
    ƒ Small business measures
    ƒ Assistance for those
    doing it tough
    Winners & losers
    Winners?
    ƒ Job seekers
    ƒ Businesses that offer training and placement
    services
    ƒ Apprentices
    ƒ Small Business
    ƒ Regional Australia
    Losers
    ƒ Salary sacrifice vehicle change
    ƒ Dependent Spouse Tax Offset change
    Global perspective
    p p
    Issue: Ascent of China
    So What?
    China leads the wayy Exchange rates, trade,
    sharemarket,
    h k iinterest rates
    Drivers of world economy -
    Contribution to growth 2011
    China 0.81%
    United States 0.74%
    India 0.18%
    Japan 0.14%
    Newly Industrialised Asia* 0.13%
    Germany 0.13%
    ASEAN 5 # 0.12%
    Brazil 0.11%
    R
    Russia
    i 0 10%
    0.10%
    United Kingdom 0.08%
    France 0.07%
    Canada 0 05%
    0.05%
    Other countries 1.70%
    World 4.40%
    Source: IMF & CommSec
    * Newly industrialised Asia – Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore
    and South Korea
    # ASEAN 5 – Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and
    Vietnam
    Issue: Tight job market
    So What?
    Job market Reasons to spend;
    pressures for
    f business
    b i

    Job creation 2010

    Total 368,600 3.3%


    65+ 18 200
    18,200 5 9%
    5.9%
    25-34 139,200 5.7%
    55-64 75,400 5.0%
    45-54 56,400 2.3%
    35-44 53,200 2.1%
    15-24 26,100 1.3%
    Source: ABS & CommSec
    Issue: Interest rates
    Aussie dollar
    More q
    questions than answers

    ƒ Carbon
    C b ttax – no details…yet
    d t il t
    ƒ Mining tax – not finalised…yet
    ƒ Consumer conservatism – will it last?
    ƒ Reserve
    ese e Bank
    a – view
    e oon tthe
    e Budget?
    udget
    ƒ Politics – will the measures be passed
    ƒ China
    Chi – boom
    b or bust?
    b t?
    ƒ Resource projects – can all the work be done?
    Summing
    g up
    p

    ƒ Right
    Ri ht b
    budget
    d t for
    f the
    th times
    ti
    ƒ Discipline required to achieve
    surplus
    l
    ƒ Economy will lift later in 2011
    ƒ Rate hikes remain on agenda
    ƒ Focus on opportunities, not
    risks
    CommSec forecasts

    Forecasts
    Economic growth 2.40% in 2010/11 4.10% in 2011/12

    Inflation 3 10% in 2010/11


    3.10% 3 10% in 2011/12
    3.10%

    Unemployment 4.75-5.00%,
    4.75 5.00%, mid 2011 4.50-5.00%,
    4.50 5.00%, end 2011

    Cash rate 4.75%, mid 2011 5.00-5.25%, end 2011

    Sharemarket 4 900 points


    4,900 points, mid 2011 5 200 points
    5,200 points, end 2011
    (Australian)
    Australian dollar US108c in June 2011 US104c in December 2011
    www.despair.com

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