PAN ATLANTIC SMS

PAN ATLANTIC SMS GROUP 

GROUP
48TH OMNIBUS POLL™
Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine • www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com  
 Background
g
2

Pan Atlantic SMS Group is a Maine based, independent marketing research and marketing 
consulting firm and is currently in its 26th year of successful operation.
OUP
ANTIC SSMS GRO

This Omnibus Poll is the 48th poll in series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public 

This Omnibus Poll is the 48 poll in series conducted by Pan Atlantic SMS Group on public
policy, economic and business issues of interest to Maine citizens. Because we have 
conducted this poll on a frequent basis over a long time period (since 1996), we are in a 
unique position to provide reliable benchmarking on a range of important issues.

Media use of the information contained in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ must 
identify the source of information.  The following report details the results of proprietary 
questions sponsored by MaineToday Media, Inc. The results of these (MTM) questions were 
published in the Maine Sunday Telegram on Sunday, May 8th.  These results are being 
PAN ATLA

released in the public interest. In reproducing these results, please credit MaineToday
l d i th bli i t t I d i th lt l dit M i T d
Media, Inc. as the sponsor of the poll questions.

For further information, please contact Patrick Murphy, President of Pan Atlantic SMS Group, 
P

at (207) 871‐8622 or by email at pmurphy@panatlanticsmsgroup.com.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Methodology
gy
3

The 48th Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ was conducted between April 25th and May 2nd

2011. This independent survey data is being released to the Maine media in the public interest.  
OUP
ANTIC SSMS GRO

A randomly selected, stratified statewide sample of 401 Maine voters was interviewed by telephone.  
Each Congressional District is represented by approximately half of the sample.  The survey was 
administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria: 

¾ Registered Maine voter
¾ Voted in the Maine’s November 2010 elections
¾ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm.
PAN ATLA

This independent poll was conducted by telephone, at our in‐house interviewing center, by Pan 
Atlantic’s team of experienced interviewers.  No outside interviewer sources were used. Survey 
results were weighted to ensure that the poll results are representative of the various demographic 
segments of Maine’ss population.
segments of Maine population
P

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Methodology
gy
4

It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding 
of decimals.
OUP
ANTIC SSMS GRO

The sample was stratified based on the 2010 U.S. Census of Population and Housing 
data.  The sample size has statistical significance of + 4.9 percent at the 95 percent 
confidence level.  This means that if the survey were to be repeated, 95 times out of 
100 the results would reflect the results of this survey within the + 4.9 percent margin 
of error.  

The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional 
PAN ATLA

Di t i t
District, political party affiliation, age and gender.  The margins of error for specific sub‐
liti l t ffili ti d d Th i f f ifi b
samples are higher than the + 4.9 percent margin of error for the entire sample. 

Finally, we note that as with all surveys, these results are indicative of interviewees
Finally we note that as with all surveys these results are indicative of interviewees’ 
P

opinions at a singular point in time. 
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine
www panatlanticsmsgroup com
www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com  
207.871.8622
The following poll questions regarding Maine’s political climate were 
commissioned and paid for by MaineToday
i i d d id f b M i T d Media, Inc. The results were 
M di I Th lt
originally published in The Maine Sunday Telegram on May, 8th 2011.

These results are being released in the public interest. In reproducing 
These results are being released in the public interest. In reproducing
these results, please credit MaineToday Media, Inc. as the sponsor of the 
poll questions.
 I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine.  First, I would 
like you to tell me if you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat 
unfavorable”, or “very unfavorable” opinion of Governor Paul LePage.
f bl ” “ f bl ” i i fG P lL P
6 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Overall Favorability Level of Governor LePage
60% 56.1% 60%

50% Somewhat 50% 47.5%

unfavorable
Somewhat 41.3%
16.7% 38.9%
40% 40% unfavorable
Very
y 16.6% Very
y
30% Favorable 30% Favorable
Very 14.5% 20.2%
Very
20% unfavorable 20%
Somewhat unfavorable
39.4% Somewhat
Favorable 30.9% 11.2%
Favorable
10% 24 4%
24.4% 5 0%
5.0% 10%
21.2%

0% 0%
Unfavorable overall,  Favorable overall,  Don’t know /  Unfavorable overall,  Favorable overall, Oct  Don't know / 
Apr 2011 Apr. 2011 Unfamiliar Apr.  Oct. 3rd 2010 3rd 2010 Unfamiliar Oct. 3rd 
2011 2010

† Governor LePage’s unfavorability levels have risen to 56.1% (‘somewhat’ and ‘very’ unfavorable) from the 47.5% level 

recorded in the Pan Atlantic SMS Group Omnibus Poll™ conducted prior to his election as Governor of Maine. His 
favorability level of 38.9% represents a negative gap of 17.2 percentage points over his favorability level. Five percent ‘do
favorability level of 38.9% represents a negative gap of 17.2 percentage points over his favorability level. Five percent  do
not know’ or ‘are not familiar with’ Governor LePage.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine.  First, I would like 
you to tell me if you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat unfavorable”, 
or “very
or  very unfavorable
unfavorable” opinion of Governor Paul LePage.
opinion of Governor Paul LePage.
7 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Governor LePage’s Favorability Levels, by Political Party Affiliation

Democrat 63.4% 15.7% 9.7% 8.2% 3.0%

Republican 8.7% 15.1% 46.8% 27.0% 2.4%

Independent 43.5% 19.8% 19.1% 7.6% 9.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very unfavorable Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Very favorable Don't know / Not familiar

† While 73.8% of Republicans interviewed indicated that they have an overall favorable opinion of Governor 
LePage, only 26.7% of Independents and 17.9% of Democrats report having a favorable opinion of him. 

† As such, 79.1% of Democrats, 63.3% of Independents, and 23.8% of Republicans reported having an 
unfavorable  opinion of Governor LePage.
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 I am going to ask you some questions regarding public policy issues in Maine.  First, I would 
like you to tell me if you have a “very favorable”, “somewhat favorable”, “somewhat 
unfavorable”, or 
unfavorable or “very
very unfavorable
unfavorable” opinion of Governor Paul LePage. 
opinion of Governor Paul LePage
8 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Governor LePage’s Favorability Levels, by Congressional District and Gender

Congressional District 1 46.5% 15.0% 20.0% 13.5% 5.0%

Congressional District 2 32.3% 18.4% 28.9% 15.4% 5.0%

Females 47.6% 16.5% 19.9% 11.2% 4.9%

Males 30.8% 16.9% 29.2% 17.9% 5.1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very unfavorable
y Somewhat unfavorable Somewhat favorable Very favorable
y Don't know / Not familiar
/

† Governor LePage’s favorability level is higher with voters in Congressional District 2 (44.3%) than in CD1 
(33.5%) – an eleven point margin.

† Furthermore, males reported having a higher opinion of Governor LePage than their female counterparts 
(47.1% vs. 31.1% ‘somewhat’ or ‘very favorable’, respectively). 
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. How would you rate his 
performance to date? Would you say his performance has been: 
p y y p
9 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Performance Level of Governor LePage Respondents Reporting an “Average” 
60% Performance Level by Governor LePage, by 
54 9%
54.9% Political Affiliation (n=88)
50% 45.5%
50%
21.9% 40%
Poor, 20.7% 29.5%
23.2% 30% 22.8%
40% 20%
EExcellent
ll t
7.0% 10% 2.2%
30% 0%

20% Very
p ,
poor, Good,
31.7% 13.7%
10%
2.5%

0%
Very Poor / Poor Good / Excellent Average Don’t know

† While 54.9% of those surveyed rated Governor LePage’s performance to‐date as being ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’, 
20.7% of respondents indicated that his performance has been ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ – a margin of 34.2 
percentage points.

† One in five of those surveyed (21.9%) indicated that Governor LePage’s performance so far has been ‘average’.  
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. How would you rate his 
performance to date? Would you say his performance has been: 
p y y p
10 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Governor LePage’s Performance Levels, by Political Party Affiliation
3.7%
0.7%
Democrat 50.7% 28.4% 14.9%
1.5%

Republican 7 9%
7.9% 13 5%
13.5% 31 7%
31.7% 29 4%
29.4% 14 3%
14.3% 3.2%

3.8%
Independent 35.1% 27.5% 19.8% 8.4% 5.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very poor Poor Average Good Excellent Don't know

† Five percent of responding Democrats (5.2%) indicated that Governor LePage’s performance to date has been 
‘good’ or ‘excellent’ combined. In contrast, 43.7% of Republicans surveyed reported that they believe 
Governor LePage is performing at a ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ level.

† Fourteen percent of Independent voters (13.7%) reported that they believe Governor LePage
Fourteen percent of Independent voters (13 7%) reported that they believe Governor LePage is performing at 
is performing at
a ‘good’ or ‘excellent’ level.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has been in office since January of this year. How would you rate his 
performance to date? Would you say his performance has been: 
p y y p
11 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Governor LePage’s
g Performance Levels, by Congressional District and Gender
, y g

Congressional
60.5% 20.0% 17.5% 2.0%
District 1
Congressional
49.3% 23.9% 23.9% 3.0%
District 2

Female 63.6% 19.9% 15.0% 1.5%

Male 45.6% 24.1% 26.7% 3.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very poor / Poor Average Good / Excellent Don’t know

† Females (63.6%) and respondents residing in Congressional District 1 (60.5%) are more likely than their 
counterparts to report that Governor LePage is performing at a ‘poor’ or ‘very poor’ level (males : 45.6% and 
CD2 : 49.3%).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 12

Paul LePage
l was a candidate in the November 
dd h b
If today were election day, would you vote for 
2010 Maine Gubernatorial elections. In the 
Paul LePage again? 
November 2010 elections for Maine Governor, 
did you vote for LePage? [Asked only of respondents who voted for Governor  LePage in 
the 2010 Gubernatorial election, n=142.]
the 2010 Gubernatorial election, n 142.]

80% 80% 76.1%

70% 62.1% 70%
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 35.4% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
11.3% 12.7%
10% 2.5% 10%
0% 0%
No Yes Refused / Don't  No Yes Refused / Don't 
know know

† Of the 142 respondents in the sample who reported voting for Governor LePage in the November 2010 elections, 
more than three quarters (76.1%) indicated that if today were Election Day, they would vote for him again. 

† Republicans who voted for Governor LePage in November 2010 are more likely to say they would vote for him 
again (82.4%) than are Democrats (62.5%) and Independents (65.6%). 
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 13

If today
If toda were election day, would you vote 
ere election da o ld o ote
for Paul LePage again? 
Would NOT or Don’t Know if They Would Vote for 
[Asked only of respondents who voted for LePage in the  Governor LePage Again, by Political Party
2010 Gubernatorial election, n=142.]

80% 76.1% 50% 47.1%

45%
70%
40%
60% 35.3%
35%
50% 30%
40% 25%
30% 20% 17.6%

20% 15%
11.3%
3% 12 7%
12.7%
10%
10%
5%
0%
0%
Yes No Refused / Don't
know Republican Independent Democrat

† Of the 34 respondents (out of 142) who indicated that they would NOT or do not know if they would vote for 
Governor LePage again if today were Election Day, 47.1% are Republican, 35.3% are Democrats, and 17.6% are 
Independents or other
Independents or other. 

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Since Governor Paul LePage has taken office, do you think that he has moved the State of 
Maine forward, backward or is it in the same place?
, p
14 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Same Place Females (44.7%), 

Females (44.7%),
Males (23.6%) and  35.2% Democrats (63.4%), 
Republicans  Independents 
(36.5%) were more  (45.0%), and those 
likely to report that  over the age of 55 
Governor LePage
Governor LePage Backward,
39.7%
(47 6%)
(47.6%) were more 
has moved the  Forward, likely to report that 
State of Maine  17.5% Governor LePage
FORWARD since  has moved the 
taking office in  Don’t know / State of Maine 
TToo soon to
t tell
t ll
January 2011. 7.7% BACKWARD since 
taking office in 
January 2011.

† Forty percent of those surveyed (39.7%) indicated that they believe Governor LePage has moved the State of 
Maine backward since taking office, while 17.5% indicated that Governor LePage has moved the state 
forward.

† Thirty five percent (35.2%) reported that they believe the State of Maine is in the same place as it was before 
Thirty five percent (35 2%) reported that they believe the State of Maine is in the same place as it was before
Governor LePage took office. 

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Since Governor Paul LePage has taken office, do you think that he has moved the State of 
Maine forward, backward or is it in the same place?
, p
15 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Direction of the State of Maine, by Political Party Affiliation

Democrat 63.4% 25.4% 6.0% 5.2%

Republican 9.5% 43.7% 36.5% 10.3%

Independent 45.0% 36.6% 10.7% 7.6%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Backward Same p
place Forward Don't know / Too soon to tell

† While 36.5% of Republicans indicate that they believe the state of Maine has moved forward since Governor 
LePage has taken office, only 10.7% of Independents and 6.0% of Democrats report having this same belief. 

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Since Governor Paul LePage has taken office, do you think that he has moved the State of 
Maine forward, backward or is it in the same place?
, p
16 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Direction of the State of Maine, By Gender and Congressional District

Female 44.7% 35.9% 11.7% 7.8%

Male 34.4% 34.4% 23.6% 7.7%

Congressional District 1 44.0% 33.5% 14.0% 8.5%

Congressional District 2
Congressional District 2 35.3% 36.8% 20.9% 7.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Backward Same place Forward Don't know / Too soon to tell

† Females (44.7%) are more likely than males (34.4%) to report that the State of Maine has moved backward since 
Governor LePage has taken office. 

† While differences between Maine’s two Congressional Districts in terms of the percent of respondents reporting 
g p p p g
that Governor LePage has moved the State of Maine forward or backward approaches significance, it is not 
statistically relevant within the margin of error for this sample. 
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has drawn a lot of national media attention to himself and to the State 
of Maine. Overall, do you think that this attention has been good or bad for the state?

17 [Options were rotated; N=401]

† Close to seventy percent of respondents 
(69.8%) indicated that the national media 
attention drawn to the State of Maine by 
Don't know, Governor LePage is ,overall, bad for the 
11 2%
11.2% state.  

Good † Conversely, 19.0% of respondents reported 
Overall for that they believe the media attention is, 
Maine, overall, good for the state of Maine.
Bad Overall 19.0%
for Maine, † This represents a negative net margin of 
69.8% close to 51 percentage points.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has drawn a lot of national media attention to himself and to the 
State of Maine. Overall, do you think that this attention
y has been good or bad for the state?
g

18 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Media Attention Favorability, by Political Party Affiliation

Democrat 87.3% 6.0% 6.7%

Republican 45.2% 34.9% 19.8%

Independent 76.3% 16.8% 6.9%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Bad for Maine Good for Maine Don’t know

† Republican respondents (34.9%) are more likely to indicate that the national media attention has overall, been 
good for the State of Maine, than their Democratic or Independent counterparts (6.0% and 16.8%, respectively).

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Governor Paul LePage has drawn a lot of national media attention to himself and to the 
State of Maine. Overall, do you think that this attention
y has been good or bad for the state?
g

19 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Media Attention Favorability, by Congressional District and Gender

Congressional District 1 74.5% 17.0% 8.5%

Congressional District 2 65.2% 20.9% 13.9%

Female 75.7% 14.6% 9.7%

Male 63.6% 23.6% 12.8%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Bad for Maine Good for Mane Don't know

† While a similar percentage of respondents from both Congressional Districts reported that this attention has been 
good for the state of Maine (CD1: 17.0%, CD2: 20.9%), respondents from CD1 (74.5%) were more likely to report 
that the attention has been bad for the state (CD2: 65.2%). The ‘don’t know’ and ‘too soon to tell’ percentage was 
greater in CD2 than in CD1 (13.9% vs. 8.5%, respectively) 

† Females (75.7%) are more likely than males (63.6%) to report that the national media attention drawn by Governor 
LePage to Maine has been bad for the state. 
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paul LePage’s decision to remove the mural from 
the State of Maine Department of Labor Office? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
p gy

20 [Options were rotated; N=401]

70%
Approval Level for Mural Removal Decision
65 1%
65.1%
60% Somewhat
disaproove,
16.2%
20.9%
50%

40% Strongly
approve,
9.7%

30%
Strongly
disapprove,
48 9%
48.9%
20% 8 0%
8.0%
Somewhat 6.0%
approve,
10% 11.2%

0%
Overall, Disapprove Overall, Approve Not aware of this issue Don’t know

† By a margin of more than three to one (65.1%), respondents indicated that they ‘strongly’ (48.9%) or ‘somewhat’ 
(16 2%) disapprove of Governor LePage’ss decision to remove the mural from the State of Maine Department of 
(16.2%) disapprove of Governor LePage decision to remove the mural from the State of Maine Department of
Labor Office, while only 20.9% approve – a margin of 44.2 percentage points.

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paul LePage’s decision to remove the mural from 
the State of Maine Department of Labor Office? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
p gy

21 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Approval Level for Mural Removal, by Political Party Affiliation
3 0%
3.0%
Democrat 70.9% 17.9% 6.7%
1.5%

Republican 20.6% 15.1% 25.4% 19.0% 19.8%

Independent 53.4% 16.0% 6.1% 9.2% 15.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly disapprove Somewhat disapprove Somewhat approve Strongly approve Don’t know / Not aware of issue

† Less than half of Republicans (44.4%), 15.3% of Independents, and 4.5% of Democrats approve (‘somewhat’ and 
‘strongly’ approve, combined) of Governor LePage’s decision to remove the mural from the State of Maine 
Department of Labor Office. 

† Conversely, 35.7% of Republicans, 69.5% of Independents and 88.8% of Democrats disapprove of this decision 
(‘strongly’ and ‘somewhat’ disapprove, combined).
Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paul LePage’s decision to remove the mural from 
the State of Maine Department of Labor Office? Is that strongly, or somewhat?
p gy

22 [Options were rotated; N=401]

Approval Level for Mural Removal, by Gender
pp , y

Female 55.3% 18.4% 10.7% 4.9% 10.7%

Male 42.1% 13.8% 11.8% 14.9% 17.4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly disapprove
gy pp Somewhat disapprove
pp Somewhat approve
pp Strongly approve
g y pp Don't know / Not aware of issue

† Females are much more likely than males to disapprove overall (‘strongly’ and ‘somewhat disapprove’ combined) 
p ( , p y)
than their male counterparts (73.8% vs. 55.9%, respectively). 

Maine’s Best Pollster 2008
Five Milk Street, Portland, Maine
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www.panatlanticsmsgroup.com  
207.871.8622

These poll questions regarding Maine’s political climate were 
h ll i di i ’ li i l li
commissioned and paid for by MaineToday Media, Inc. 

In the reproduction of these results, please credit MaineToday
In the reproduction of these results please credit MaineToday
Media, Inc. as the sponsor.