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Chapter 8

Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single

Populations

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

understand estimating

parameters of single populations, thereby enabling you to:

is known.

is unknown.

given statistical goals.

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 2

estimation and estimation of sample size. In this chapter, the

concept of point estimate is discussed along with the notion that

as each sample changes in all likelihood so will the point

estimate. From this, the student can see that an interval

estimate may be more usable as a one-time proposition than the

point estimate. The confidence interval formulas for large sample means

and proportions can be presented as mere algebraic manipulations of formulas

developed in chapter 7 from the Central Limit Theorem.

It is very important that students begin to understand the difference

between mean and proportions. Means can be generated by averaging some sort

of measurable item such as age, sales, volume, test score, etc. Proportions are

computed by counting the number of items containing a characteristic of interest

out of the total number of items. Examples might be proportion of people

carrying a VISA card, proportion of items that are defective, proportion of market

purchasing brand A. In addition, students can begin to see that sometimes single

samples are taken and analyzed; but that other times, two samples are taken in

order to compare two brands, two techniques, two conditions, male/female, etc.

In an effort to understand the impact of variables on confidence intervals,

it may be useful to ask the students what would happen to a confidence interval if

the sample size is varied or the confidence is increased or decreased. Such

consideration helps the student see in a different light the items that make up a

confidence interval. The student can see that increasing the sample size, reduces

the width of the confidence interval all other things being constant or that it

increases confidence if other things are held constant. Business students probably

understand that increasing sample size costs more and thus there are trade-offs in

the research set-up.

In addition, it is probably worthwhile to have some discussion with

students regarding the meaning of confidence, say 95%. The idea is presented in

the chapter that if 100 samples are randomly taken from a population and 95%

confidence intervals are computed on each sample, that 95%(100) or 95 intervals

should contain the parameter of estimation and approximately 5 will not. In most

cases, only one confidence interval is computed, not 100, so the 95% confidence

puts the odds in the researcher's favor. It should be pointed out, however, that the

confidence interval computed may not contain the parameter of interest.

This chapter introduces the student to the t distribution to estimate

population means from small samples when σ is unknown. Emphasize that this

applies only when the population is normally distributed. The student will

observe that the t formula is essentially the same as the z formula and that it is the

table that is different. When the population is normally distributed and σ is

known, the z formula can be used even for small samples. In addition, note that

some business researchers always prefer to use the t distribution when σ is

unknown.

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 3

Here the student is introduced to the chi-square distribution. An assumption

underlying the use of this technique is that the population is normally distributed.

The use of the chi-square statistic to estimate the population variance is extremely

sensitive to violations of this assumption. For this reason, exercise extreme

caution is using this technique. Some statisticians omit this technique from

consideration.

Lastly, this chapter contains a section on the estimation of sample size.

One of the more common questions asked of statisticians is: "How large of a

sample size should I take?" In this section, it should be emphasized that sample

size estimation gives the researcher a "ball park" figure as to how many to sample.

The “error of estimation “ is a measure of the sampling error. It is also equal to

the + error of the interval shown earlier in the chapter.

CHAPTER OUTLINE

Unknown

Population Standard

Deviation is Unknown and n is Large.

The t Distribution

Robustness

Unknown and

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 4

KEY WORDS

Chi-square Distribution Robust

Degrees of Freedom(df) Sample-Size Estimation

Error of Estimation t Distribution

Interval Estimate t Value

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 5

8.1 a) x = 25 σ = 3.5 n = 60

σ 3.5

x + z = 25 + 1.96 = 25 + 0.89 = 24.11 < µ < 25.89

n 60

b) x = 119.6 s = 23.89 n = 75

98% Confidence z.01 = 2.33

s 2.89

x + z = 119.6 + 2.33 75 = 119.6 ± 6.43 = 113.17 < µ < 126.03

n

c) x = 3.419 s = 0.974 n = 32

90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645

s 0.974

x + z = 3.419 + 1.645 = 3.419 ± .283 = 3.136 < µ < 3.702

n 32

80% C.I. z.10 = 1.28

σ N −n 12 .1 500 − 47

x ±z = 56.7 + 1.28 =

n N −1 47 500 −1

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 6

8.2 n = 36 x = 211 σ = 23

95% C.I. z.025 = 1.96

σ 2

x ± z = 211 ± 1.96 = 211 ± 7.51 = 203.49 < µ < 218.51

n 36

8.3 n = 81 x = 47 s = 5.89

90% C.I. z.05=1.645

s 5.89

x ± z = 47 ± 1.645 = 47 ± 1.08 = 45.92 < µ < 48.08

n 81

8.4 n = 70 σ 2 = 49 x = 90.4

σ 49

x + z n

= 90.4 ± 1.88 = 90.4 ± 1.57 = 88.83 < µ < 91.97

70

8.5 n = 39 N = 200 x = 66 s = 11

96% C.I. z.02 = 2.05

s N −n 11 200 − 39

x ± z = 66 ± 2.05 =

n N −1 9 200 −1

x = 66 Point Estimate

99% C.I. z.005 = 2.575

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 7

s 0.8735

x + z = 18.72 ± 2.575 120 = 8.72 ± .21 = 18.51 < µ < 18.93

n

95% C.I. z.025 = 1.96

x ± z = 5.3 ± 1.96 =

n N −1 187 1500 −1

90% C.I. z.05 = 1.645

s 3.229

x ± z = 5.656 ± 1.645 = 5.656 ± .939 = 4.717 < µ < 6.595

n 32

98% C.I. z.01 = 2.33

s 1.167

x ± z = 3.306 ± 2.33 = 3.306 ± .453 = 2.853 < µ < 3.759

n 36

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 8

s (. 113 )

x ± z = 2.139 ± 1.645 = 2.139 ± .03 = 2.109 < µ < 2.169

n 36

x = 24.533 s = 5.1239

z = + 1.96

s 5.1239

Confidence interval: x + z = 24.533 + 1.96 =

n 45

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 9

α /2=.025

t.025,12 = 2.179

s 5.694

x ±t = 45.62 ± 2.179 = 45.62 ± 3.44 = 42.18 < µ < 49.06

n 13

s 9.104

x ±t = 319.17 ± (1.796) = 319.17 ± 4.72 = 314.45 < µ <

n 12

323.89

α /2=.01

t.01,26 = 2.479

s 20 .6

x ±t = 128.4 ± 2.479 = 128.4 ± 9.83 = 118.57 < µ < 138.23

n 27

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 10

α /2=.05

t.05,14 = 1.761

s 0.81

x ±t = 2.364 ± 1.761 = 2.364 ± .409 = 1.955 < µ < 2.773

n 15

α /2=.005

t.005,24 = 2.797

s .817

x ±t = 16.088 ± 2.797 = 16.088 ± .457 = 15.631 < µ < 16.545

n 25

s 279

x ±t = 1,192 + (2.518) = 1,192 + 149.78 = 1,042.22 < µ <

n 22

1,341.78

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 11

x = 2.36116 s = 0.19721

0.1972

2.36116 + 2.093 = 2.36116 + 0.0923 = 2.26886 < µ < 2.45346

20

Error = 0.0923

t.05,27 = 1.703

s 2.016

x ±t = 5.335 ± 1.703 = 5.335 + .649 = 4.686 < µ < 5.984

n 28

s 18 .22

x ±t = 49.8 ± 2.262 = 49.8 + 13.03 = 36.77 < µ < 62.83

n 10

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 12

t.01,13 = 2.650

s 14 .42

confidence interval: x ±t = 152.16 + 2.65 =

n 14

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 51 )(. 49 )

pˆ ± z = .51 ± 2.575 = .51 ± .194 = .316 < p< .704

n 44

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 82 )(. 18 )

pˆ ± z = .82 ± 1.96 = .82 ± .043 = .777 < p < .863

n 300

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 48 )(. 52 )

pˆ ± z = .48 ± 1.645 = .48 ± .024 = .456 < p < .504

n 1150

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 32 )(. 68 )

pˆ ± z = .32 ± 1.555 = .32 ± .074 = .246 < p < .394

n 95

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 13

p̂ = x = 57 = .49

n 116

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 49 )(. 51 )

pˆ ± z = .49 ± 2.575 = .49 ± .12 = .37 < p < .61

n 116

x 479

p̂ = = = .60

n 800

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 60 )(. 40 )

pˆ ± z = .60 ± 2.17 = .60 ± .038 = .562 < p < .638

n 800

x 106

p̂ = = = .44

n 240

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 44 )(. 56 )

pˆ ± z = .44 ± 1.44 = .44 ± .046 = .394 < p < .486

n 240

x 21

p̂ = = = .35

n 60

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 35 )(. 65 )

pˆ ± z = .35 ± 1.645 = .35 ± .10 = .25 < p < .45

n 60

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 14

p̂ = x = 40 = .47

n 85

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 47 )(. 53 )

pˆ ± z = .47 ± 1.645 = .47 ± .09 = .38 < p < .56

n 85

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 47 )(. 53 )

pˆ ± z = .47 ± 1.96 = .47 ± .106 = .364 < p < .576

n 85

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 47 )(. 53 )

pˆ ± z = .47 ± 2.575 = .47 ± .14 = .33 < p < .61

n 85

All things being constant, as the confidence increased, the width of the interval

increased.

pˆ ± z = .245 + 2.575 = .245 + .035 = .21 < p < .28

n 1003

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 15

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 47 )(. 53 )

pˆ ± z = .47 + 1.96 = .47 + .0413 = .4287 < p < .5113

n 560

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 28 )(. 72 )

pˆ ± z = .28 + 1.645 = .28 + .0312 = .2488 < p < .3112

n 560

x 997

p̂ = = = .80

n 1250

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 80 )(. 20 )

pˆ ± z = .80 ± 2.33 = .80 ± .026 = .774 < p < .826

n 1250

x 927

p̂ = = = .266

n 3481

pˆ ± z = .266 + 2.575 = .266 ± .02 =

n 3481

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 16

x 48

p̂ = = = .54

n 89

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 54 )(. 46 )

pˆ ± z = .54 ± 1.44 = .54 ± .076 = .464 < p < .616

n 89

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 63 )(. 37 )

pˆ ± z = .63 + 1.96 = .63 + .0365 = .5935 < p < .6665

n 672

χ 2

.995,11 = 2.60321 χ 2

.005,11 = 26.7569

< σ 2

<

26 .7569 2.60321

18.46 < σ 2

< 189.73

95% C.I. df = 12 – 1 = 11

χ 2

.975,6 = 1.237347 χ 2

.025,6 = 14.4494

(7 −1)(1.5376 ) (7 −1)(1.5376 )

< σ 2

<

14 .4494 1.237347

0.64 < σ 2

< 7.46

c) n = 20 x = 105 s = 32 s2 = 1024

90% C.I. df = 20 – 1 = 19

χ 2

.95,19 = 10.117 χ 2

.05,19 = 30.1435

( 20 −1)(1024 ) ( 20 −1)(1024 )

< σ 2

<

30 .1435 10 .117

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 17

645.45 < σ 2

< 1923.10

χ 2

.90,16 = 9.31223 χ 2

.10,16 = 23.5418

< σ 2

<

23 .5418 9.31223

12.61 < σ 2

< 31.89

χ 2

.99,15 = 5.22935 χ 2

.01,15 = 30.5779

<σ 2

<

30 .5779 5.22935

18.24 < σ 2

< 106.66

98% C.I. df = 20 – 1 = 19

χ 2

.99,19 = 7.63273 χ 2

.01,19 = 36.1980

< σ 2

<

36 .1980 7.63273

9.71 < σ 2

< 46.03

χ 2

.995,14 = 4.07468 χ 2

.005,14 = 31.3193

< σ 2

<

31 .3193 24 .07468

1.37 < σ 2

< 10.54

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 18

χ 2

.975,13 = 5.00874 χ 2

.025,13 = 24.7356

(14 −1)( 26 ,798 ,241 .76 ) (14 −1)( 26 ,798 ,241 .76 )

< σ 2

<

24 .7356 5.00874

14,084,038.51 < σ 2

< 69,553,848.45

z 2σ 2 (1.96) 2 (36 ) 2

n= = = 199.15

E2 52

Sample 200

z 2σ 2 (2.575 ) 2 (4.13) 2

n= = = 113.1

E2 12

Sample 114

z 2σ 2 (1.645 ) 2 (105 ) 2

n = = = 298.3

E2 10 2

Sample 299

d) E = 3 Range = 108 - 50 = 58

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 19

n = = = 56.5

E2 32

Sample 57

z 2 p ⋅ q ( 2.05 ) 2 (. 40 )(. 60 )

n = = = 2521.5

E2 (. 02 ) 2

Sample 2522

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.96 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

n = = = 600.25

E2 (. 04 ) 2

Sample 601

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.645 ) 2 (. 55 )(. 45 )

n = = = 267.9

E2 (. 05 ) 2

Sample 268

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 20

z 2 p ⋅ q (2.575 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

n = = = 16,576.6

E2 (. 01) 2

Sample 16,577

z 2σ 2 (2.575) 2 (1000 ) 2

n = = = 165.77

E2 200 2

Sample 166

n = = = 105.7

E2 22

Sample 106

z 2σ 2 (1.645) 2 ( 475) 2

n = = = 61.05

E2 100 2

Sample 62

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 21

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.645 ) 2 (. 20 )(. 80 )

n = = = 1082.41

E2 (. 02 ) 2

Sample 1083

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.96 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

n = = = 384.16

E2 (. 05 ) 2

Sample 385

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.96 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

n = = = 96.04

E2 (. 10 ) 2

Sample 97

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 22

s 7.7467

x ±z = 45 .6 ±1.28 = 45.6 + 1.676

n 35

s 7.7467

x ±z = 45 .6 ±1.88 = 45.6 + 2.462

n 35

s 7.7467

x±z = 45 .6 ± 2.33 = 45.6 + 3.051

n 35

s .4373

x ±t = 12 .03 ±1.833 = 12.03 + .25

n 10

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 23

s .4373

x ±t = 12 .03 ± 2.262 = 12.03 + .31

n 10

s (. 4373 )

x ±t = 12 .03 ± 3.25 = 12.03 + .45

n 10

329

pˆ = = .46

715

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 46 )(. 54 )

pˆ ± z = .46 ±1.96 = .46 + .0365

n 715

ˆ ⋅ qˆ

p (. 71)(. 29 )

ˆ ±z

p = .71 ±1.645 = .71 + .0443

n 284

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 24

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 48 )(. 52 )

pˆ ± z = .48 ±1.96 = .48 + .0277

n 1250

270

pˆ = = .591

457

pˆ ± z = .591 ± 2.33 = .591 + .0536

n 457

χ 2

.95,9 = 3.32511 χ 2

.05,9 = 16.919

< σ 2

<

16 .919 3.32511

29.133 < σ 2

< 148.236

χ 2

.975,9 = 2.70039 χ 2

.025,9 = 19.0228

< σ 2

<

19 .0228 2.70039

4.258 < σ 2

< 182.529

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 25

z 2σ 2 (1.96 ) 2 (44) 2

n = = = 826.4

E2 32

Sample 827

b) E = 2 Range = 88 - 20 = 68

z 2σ 2 (1.645 ) 2 (17 ) 2

= = 195.5

E2 22

Sample 196

z 2 p ⋅ q ( 2.33 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

= = 848.3

E2 (. 04 ) 2

Sample 849

z2 p ⋅q 4(1.96 ) 2 (. 70 )(. 30 )

= = 896.4

E2 (. 03 ) 2

Sample 897

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 26

s 2.223

x ±t = 10 .765 ± 2.921 = 10.765 + 1.575

n 17

z 2 p ⋅ q (1.645 ) 2 (. 40 )(. 60 )

n = = = 721.61

E2 (. 03 ) 2

Sample 722

χ 2

.995,16 = 5.14224 χ 2

.005,16 = 34.2672

< σ 2

<

34 .2672 5.14224

2.307 < σ 2

< 15.374

8.53 n = 45 x = 213 s = 48

s 48

x±z = 213 ± 2.33 = 213 ± 16.67

n 45

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 27

s 3.891

x ±z = 37 .256 ±1.645 = 37.256 ± 1.025

n 39

z 2σ 2 ( 2.33) 2 (6) 2

n = = = 195.44

E2 12

Sample 196

714

pˆ = = .569

1255

ˆ ⋅ qˆ

p (. 569 )(. 431 )

ˆ ±z

p = .569 ±1.96 = .569 ± .027

n 1,255

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 28

t.01,24 = 2.492

s 21

x ±t = 128 ± 2.492 = 128 + 10.466

n 25

s N −n 3.059 300 − 60

x±z = 6.717 ± 2.33 =

n N −1 60 300 −1

6.717 ± 0.824 =

n = = = 195.02

E2 20 2

Sample 196

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 29

x 189

pˆ = = = .77

n 245

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 77 )(. 23 )

pˆ ± z = .77 ±1.645 = .77 ± .044

n 245

x 30

pˆ = =

n 90 = .33

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 33 )(. 67 )

pˆ ± z = .33 ±1.96 = .33 ± .097

n 90

t.025,11 = 2.201

s 228

x ±t = 43 .7 ± 2.201 = 43.7 + 9.59

n 12

χ 2

.975,11 = 3.81575 χ 2

.025,11 = 21.92

< σ 2

<

21 .92 3.81575

114.42 < σ 2

< 657.28

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 30

s 0.37

x ±t = 4.82 ± 2.056 = 4.82 + .1464

n 27

8.64 n = 77 x = 2.48 s = 12

s 12

x±z = 2.48 ±1.96 = 2.48 ± 2.68

n 77

The interval is inconclusive. It says that we are 95% confident that the average

arrival time is somewhere between .20 of a minute (12 seconds) early and 5.16

minutes late. Since zero is in the interval, there is a possibility that on average the

flights are on time.

pˆ ⋅ qˆ (. 33 )(. 67 )

pˆ ± z = .33 ± 2.575 = .33 ± (2.575) = .33 ± .05

n 560

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 31

z 2 p ⋅ q ( 2.33 ) 2 (. 50 )(. 50 )

= = 542.89

E2 (. 05 ) 2

Sample 543

s 0.86

x ±t = 2.10 ± 2.479 = 2.10 ± (2.479) = 2.10 ± 0.41

n 27

χ 2

.95,22 = 12.338 χ 2

.05,22 = 33.9244

< σ 2

<

33 .9244 12 .338

.0026 < σ 2

< .0071

s 0.205

x ±z = 1.294 ± 2.575 = 1.294 ± (2.575) = 1.294 ± .085

n 39

Chapter 8: Statistical Inference: Estimation for Single Populations 32

8.70 The sample mean fill for the 58 cans is 11.9788 oz. with a standard deviation of

.0556 oz. The 99% confidence interval for the population fill is 11.9607 oz. to

11.9970 oz. which does not include 12 oz. We are 99% confident that the

population mean is not 12 oz. indicating an underfill from the machine.

8.71 The point estimate for the average length of burn of the new bulb is 2198.217

hours. Eighty-four bulbs were included in this study. A 90% confidence interval

can be constructed from the information given. The error of the confidence

interval is + 27.76691. Combining this with the point estimate yields the 90%

confidence interval of 2198.217 + 27.76691 = 2170.450 < µ < 2225.984.

8.72 The point estimate for the average age of a first time buyer is 27.63 years. The

sample of 21 buyers produces a standard deviation of 6.54 years. We are 98%

confident that the actual population mean age of a first-time home buyer is

between 24.02 years and 31.24 years.

8.73 A poll of 781 American workers was taken. Of these, 506 drive their cars to

work. Thus, the point estimate for the population proportion is 506/781 = .648. A

95% confidence interval to estimate the population proportion shows that we are

95% confident that the actual value lies between .613 and .681. The error of this

interval is + .034.

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