Market Report

May 18, 2011

U.S.D.A. World Market Price:
World Market Price This week Last week 1 Year Ago 2010 Loan WMP and Loan Rates
LDP
Value Factors 05/18/11 05/11/11 05/19/10 Factors ‘10 crop L/G M/G
Long Grain To be 18.31 15.03 00.00 9.91 Yield 52.78/14.31 61.03/8.69
Medium Grain issued 18.00 14.75 00.00 9.65 WMP 11.52 12.11
Short Grain May 18 18.00 14.75 00.00 9.65 Loan 6.23 6.50
Brokens 8:30am 12.96 10.35 - 7.01 Difference (5.29) (5.61)

Posting: (May/June Shipment)

Southern U.S. - Long Grain Abbreviation Quote Basis
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.00 per cwt, BULK, FOB Vessel US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $23.50 per cwt. containerized FOB US Gulf
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $560.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain, max. 4% Broken, Hard Milled #2/4% $24.50 per cwt sacked delivered Miami FL
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $22.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #3 Long Grain, max. 15% Broken, Hard Milled #3/15 $550.00 per mt sacked delivered Laredo TX
U.S. #2 Long Grain Brown, max. 4% Broken, 75% yield #2/4/75 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G Brown, max. 4% Broken, 88% yield #1/4/88 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken (except 0.8% damage) #1/4 Parb no quote per mt sacked FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #1 Parboiled L/G MILLED, max. 4% Broken #1/4 Parb $600.00 per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Long Grain Paddy, 55/70 yield #2 55/70 $280.00 per mt bulk F.O.B. vessel NOLA
Long Grain, max. 20% broken, Hard milled (Ghana specs) #4/20/hm $21.00 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
U.S. #5 L/G, max. 20% broken, WELL MILLED #5/20/wm $20.50 per cwt. sacked, F.A.S. U.S. Gulf
Southern U.S. - Medium Grain
U.S. #2 Medium Grain, max. 4% broken, Hard Milled #2/4% no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
U.S. #2 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #2 58/69 no quote per mt bulk FOB vessel NOLA
Southern U.S. - Package Quality
Package Quality Parboiled L/G, max. 4% broken (0.8% damage) Pkg. Parb. $28.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. L/G $21.50 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Milled, max. 4% broken (select variety) Pkg. L/G $24.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Long Grain Brown Rice, max. 4% broken Pkg. Br. $31.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
Package Quality Medium Grain Milled, max. 4% broken Pkg. M/G $35.00 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. mill
California - Medium Grain
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $835.00 per mt sacked containerized FOB Mill
U.S. #1 Medium Grain, max. 4% Broken #1/4 $875.00 per mt sacked containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain milled rice, except max. 7% Broken (Japan Specs) #1/7% $875.00 per mt sacked in 30kg bags FOB vessel
U.S. #3 Medium Grain Brown rice, max. 8% broken (Korea Specs) #3 Brown $810.00 per mt in totes containerized Oakland
U.S. #1 Medium Grain Paddy, 58/69 yield #1 58/69 $550.00 per mt bulk ex-spout Sacramento CA
California - Package Quality
Package Rice for Industrial Use and Repackers #1/4% $37-$38 per cwt. bulk F.O.B. Mill
U.S. South Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $15.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers (milled) contracts M/A $13.50 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. rail
U.S. California Brokens:
Flour Quality brokens Flour Qlty $19.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Pet Food Quality / #4 Brewers contracts M/A $14.00 per cwt. bulk, F.O.B. mill
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com

May 18, 2011 - Page 1 of 4

Far East Report
SOUTHEAST ASIAN MARKETS INDIA AND PAKISTAN
In Thailand, the market remains basically In India, As aforementioned in last week’s report,
unchanged with prices slightly softer. Aside from a partial easing of the export ban, i.e. for parboil in
brokens and fragrant rice, demand offshore is some provinces, has brought pressure to bear on Thai
a bit thin, and the Thai Baht has weakened about 1%. Thai parboil prices. In addition, there are certain varieties of non-
and Viet prices are about on par or within $5 per mt of each Basmati IRRI coarse rice that have been granted exceptions
other. This has some offshore buyers standing back (or turned a blind eye to). However, there is no sign that the
anticipating further declines...whether they come government plans any kind of dramatic export program for
or not is another story. However, with Indonesia white rice, in the interest of easing storage pains.
having completed their import requirements (at least In Pakistan, the market remains relatively quiet
for the time being), and The Philippines yet to really with prices mostly sideways to slightly softer. A
begin their purchases, buyers in West Africa find decrease in prices Burmese Emata 25% has put a little
themselves with the luxury of taking a “wait and see” pressure lower grades. IRRI-6 25% is quoted at $415-
attitude. 420 per mt FOB Karachi; whilst 5% is around $470.
As regards Iraq, no new tender has been floated In short, just not much of a market to write about in
yet and the previous shorts are now covered. throughout Asia.
100% B is quoted at $490-500 per mt FOB
USDA Supply Demand Report Highlights
Bangkok; 5% is $465-475; and parboil hovering around $500. 1) U.S. rice production in 2011/12 is projected at 211.0 million cwt, 13 percent below
However, most traders will tell you the market is biddable, with 2010/11. Planted area in 2011, based on the NASS Prospective Plantings report,
a soft undertone nearby (through June/July). is estimated at 3.02 million acres, down 17 percent from 2010 and the smallest
area since 2008. Harvested area is estimated at 3.0 million acres. Average rice yield
In Vietnam, the market is a shade on the soft side is projected at 7,033 pounds per acre, up 5 percent from the previous year’s crop,
as well. 5% is quoted at $455-470 per mt FOB HCMC, which was damaged by excessive summer heat. The projected yield is calculated
depending on who you talk to. As in Thailand, from the 5-year Olympic average (2006/07-2010/11) by rice class. Imports for
2011/12 are projected at 18.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from the previous year, but
demand is relatively thin, and supply is plentiful. below the 2007/08 record.
I would have to say that support for the 5% market is closer 2) Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are projected to be 55.6 million cwts, up 52% from
to $450 than $475...not to mention $500. This is how we see 2010/11.
3) Exports are projected at 109.0 million cwt, 5 percent below revised 2010/11
the market for the short term. The second half of 2011 is exports. Despite an expected increase in global trade, competition for key markets
anybody’s guess. will be keen as U.S. and competitor supplies are expected to be large.
4) U.S. ending stocks in 2011/12 are projected at 48.6 million cwt, 13 percent below
the previous year.
Thailand Exports 5) The average milling yield used for 2011/12 is 70.75 percent. It is based on the
Jan. 1 - May 4, 2011: 4,088,128 mt 2007/08-2009/10 average milling rate calculated from data supplied by the USA
Jan. 1 - May 4, 2010: 2,780,167 mt Rice Federation in its monthly rice stocks reports. The 2010/11 market year is
excluded from the calculation because milling yields are well below average,
Jan. 1 - May 7, 2009: 2,902,710 mt largely the result of unfavorable weather.
Thai Baht 30.10-30.15 : 1 US Dollar 6) Global 2011/12 total supply and use are each projected to reach record levels at
554.9 and 458.7 million tons, respectively, resulting in a modest decline in world
ending stocks. Global 2011/12 rice production is projected at a record 457.9
million tons, up 6.6 million or 1.5 percent from 2010/11.
7) Global exports in 2011/12 are projected at a marketing-year record 32.2 million
tons, up 0.8 million from 2010/11.
8) Global ending stocks are expected to decline 0.9 million tons from 2010/11 to 96.2
million. The stocks-to-use ratio for 2011/12 is calculated at 21.0 percent, down
from last year’s 21.6 percent.
OFFSHORE QUOTES
Thailand Vietnam India Pakistan Uru. Arg. Brazil
100%B $495.00 5% $470.00 Export ban, MEP $900
5% $470.00 5% N/A 5% $470.00 $515.00 $515.00
10% $465.00 10% $465.00 10% N/A 10% no quote $505.00 $505.00
15% $460.00 15% $460.00 15% N/A 15% no quote no quote no quote
25% $450.00 25% $440.00 25% N/A 25% $420.00
Parb. 5% N/A Parb 5% $515.00 $480.00
Brokens $415.00 Brokens $415.00 Var. 1121 $1350 Parb 15%* $500.00 Brokens
Parb. 100B sorted $500.00 MEP-5% $490.00 Basmati Brokens $390.00 $385
Thai Hom Mali $930.00 MEP-25% $470.00 Traditional $1800 Basmati Paddy
Frag. Brokens $465.00 Pusa $1300 S. Kernal $1300.00 $300.00
All prices basis U.S. dollars per metric ton, F.O.B. vessel, corresponding home port *Bangladesh Specs.

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May 18, 2011 - Page 2 of 4

 CBOT Rough Rice Futures (05/16/11 Volume: 953 Open Interest: 22,757)
Contract Tuesday’s Close Net Change From Prices
Month Price Monday Last Report One Year Ago 05/18/10
‘11 Jul $14.390 UP 0.285 UP 0.220 ‘10 Jul $11.625
‘11 Sep $15.275 UP 0.340 UP 0.205 ‘10 Sep $11.230
‘11 Nov $15.595 UP 0.345 UP 0.205 ‘10 Nov $11.420
‘12 Jan $15.890 UP 0.360 UP 0.195 ‘11 Jan $11.690
‘12 Mar $16.180 UP 0.370 UP 0.165 ‘11 Mar $11.975
‘12 May $16.400 UP 0.290 - ‘11 May $12.260

U.S. Paddy Market Report with any accuracy what the final acres will be. The cash market
is quiet as load facilities at the river are closed and the industry is
Texas - There was active trading this past week at prices ranging $5.75- preoccupied with other issues.
$6.75 per cwt over loan depending on variety. Unlike Arkansas, Texas
is suffering drought conditions which could limit the second crop. California - 2010 Calrose M/G traded this week at $13.00 - $13.15
per cwt over loan. 2011 new crop traded this week at $13.25 per cwt
Louisiana - Prices are a little stronger as old crop inventory in over loan.
Louisiana is diminishing and the uncertainty of Arkansas rice acres
is increasing. Long grain is bids at $11.50 per cwt FOB farm for both Reflective Prices (all basis per cwt FOB country, 2010 Crop)
old and new crop. Texas Louisianna Mid-South California
Long grain $12.25-13.25 $11.50 $10.00b/11.00a *
Mid South - Floods continue to cause substantial problems. During
the next two-three weeks, growers will be faced with making decisions Med Grain * 14.50 new crop $17.25 $19.65
based on their individual circumstances whether to plant, replant, L/G is #2 55/70, M/G is #2 58/69 (California #1)
claim insurance, or plant soybeans. It is still too early to determine * - These areas do not have sufficient supplies of this type to quote.

U.S. Report
U.S. GULF, MERCOSUR, & FUTURES
Not much to talk about in the market itself when there is so little
going on, and all eyes are keenly focused on the torrential flooding and
effect on planting intentions of the new crop.
First, let’s briefly visit the market. Offshore demand remains very
thin, which only exacerbates the issues associated with inability to ship
down the Mississippi River anyway. Offers on milled rice and paddy are
up account two reasons:
1- Louisiana and Texas have very little crop left.
2- Arkansas, Mississippi, and Missouri are not sure how much
additional planting they can get done.
In short, supply side economics, or better yet, the perception of same
is what is driving this slight increase in pricing, as we are still facing 2
MMT of long grain carryover stocks.
To some extent, domestic buyers have capitulated and bought nearby
needs, whereas most others are taking a wait and see attitude.
The $64,000 question remains: How much of the crop will either not
get planted or replanted as the case may be account the flood waters in
the Mississippi Delta rice areas, principally northeast Arkansas, parts of
Mississippi, and the boot heel of Missouri? It is impossible to know for
sure, however the window of opportunity is soon approaching...about
another two weeks is all we got. Our guesstimate is that Arkansas will
ultimately plant around 1.2 million acres...but the jury is still out.
The U.S. Army of Corps of Engineers opened both the Morganza
and Bonnet Carre spillways, which will help release pressure off the
levees along the Mississippi River, and moreover prevent flooding of
Baton Rouge and NOLA. The sad ramification is that 25,000 buildings
and hundreds of thousands of acres will be flooded in the Atchafalaya
basin...where thousands of homes will likely be ruined...but the State of
Louisiana government had to make this most difficult call. FYI, there is
Copyright © 2011 Creed Rice. Co., Inc. All Rights reserved www.creedrice.com
very little rice land in this region as it is mostly swamp land to begin with.
I would like to sum up this part of the report by thanking our friends
at the Russell Marine Group for a tremendous job of monitoring the
developments and keeping the industry posted on a daily basis...job well
done!
The futures market has been all over the map during this ordeal,
closing up around $0.20 for the week.
Of particular interest, is that Brazil has been very active in the export
market so far, principally on parboil and brokens. Our boots on the
ground tell us to anticipate around 1.2 MMT of exports this season, and
around 3 MMT for all of Mercosur.
CALIFORNIA, AUSTRALIA & THE “MED”
Not much change here as the market remains steady
to firm, with steady shipments against old business...
primarily for Japan, Korea, Libya, and elsewhere in the
“MED”.
Prices are mostly sideways with #1-4% quoted at $37
per cwt. bulk FOB mill or $875 CY Oakland.
According to the latest USDA figures the crop is 60%
planted and 85% good condition.
Of particular note, I think we would be remiss not to mention
the looming famine in North Korea account the virtual loss of their
winter crop. Fox News had a special report on this Monday night
that projected 1-6 million people will face starvation by the end of
June if there are not radical measures taken to prevent it. At the
risk of stating the obvious, the current political climate posses many
issues as to who, and how, this potential human disaster may be
averted.

May 18, 2011 - Page 3 of 4

Upcoming Tenders: USDA Export Sales Highlights
May 24 KCCO Inv. 2000000164 tender to buy 7090mt: (6500mt (April 29 - May 5, 2011)
of #2/4% Long Grain Hard Milled in 25kg bags, 590mt of #2/7% Parboiled Sales
Long Grain Well Milled in 50kg bags, for inland plant shipment June 16 to
Net sales of 67,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week
June 30, 2011 and/or July 1 to July 15, 2011) and up 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were
reported for:
May 26 AARQ TRQ tender
AARQ Association for the Administration of Rice Quotas, Inc. Mexico (27,200 MT)
NOTICE OF OPEN TENDER South Korea (22,900 MT)
Independent bids are invited for rights to ship U.S.-origin milled rice to the European Union under
a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) granted by the EU to the United States. Ghana (10,000 MT)
Bids must be submitted on May 26, 2011 for the July 2011 TRQ Tranche, in which the following El Salvador (6,600 MT)
quantity is available: Honduras (2,000 MT)
Volume (metric tons) EU Duty
Semi-Milled or Milled Rice 9,680 zero Decreases were reported for:
(HTS item 1006.30) Iraq (6,000 MT)
TRQ Certificates will be awarded to the highest bidder(s). Any person or entity incorporated or Turkey (2,200 MT)
domiciled in the United States is eligible to bid. The minimum bid quantity is 18 metric tons. Per- Equatorial Guinea (500 MT)
formance security (the lesser of $50,000 or the total value of the bid) must be submitted with each Liberia (200 MT)
bid. Potential bidders may obtain the required bid forms and bid instructions from:
AARQ Administrator -- Economic Consulting Services, LLC -- 2001 L Street, NW, Exports
Suite 1000 -- Washington, D.C. 20036 -- Tel: (202) 466-1150 Fax: (202) 785-3330
Note: Potential bidders should consult regulations in the Official Journal of the European Union to determine the Exports of 47,900 MT were down 20 percent from the previous
applicable tariff rate on semi-milled/milled rice. AARQ disclaims any responsibility for advising potential bidders week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary
on applicable tariff rates. Potential bidders should also consult EC regulations relating to testing for unauthorized
destinations were:
GMOs.
South Korea (12,600 MT)
Tenders Results: Liberia (12,200 MT)
El Salvador (6,600 MT)
May 17 KCCO Inv. 2000000147 results pending. Saudi Arabia (3,800 MT)
Mexico (3,600 MT)
USDA Crop Progress Source: USDA
Rice Condition - Selected States: Week Ending May 15, 2011
[National crop conditions for selected States are weighted based on 2010
planted acres] Upcoming Events:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
State : Very poor : Poor : Fair : Good : Excellent
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
June 7-9, 2011 TRT Americas Conference 2011
: percent For more info go to: trtamericas.com
:
Arkansas .......: 6 21 30 38 5 June 26-30, 2011 USA Rice Millers’ Association Convention
California .....: - - 15 85 -
Louisiana ......: 2 6 28 53 11 For more info go to: www.usarice.com
Please note:
Mississippi ....: - 3 28 48 21
Missouri .......: - 42 43 15 -
Texas ..........: 1 1 55 34 9
:
6 States .......: 3 14 29 48 6
June 8 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued account our atten-
: dance at the TRT Americas Conference.
Previous week ..: (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA)
Previous year ..: - 3 33 51 13 June 29 No Creed Rice Market Report to be issued account our atten-
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Represents zero.
dance at the RMA convention.

Rice Planted - Selected States -- Week Ending Rice Emerged - Selected States -- Week Ending
May 15, May 8, May 15, 2006- 2010 May 15, May 8, May 15, 2006- 2010
State State
2010 2011 2011 Avg. 2010 2011 2011 Avg.
Arkansas 97 53 63 84 Arkansas 89 43 50 72
California 51 30 60 58 California 5 - 10 20
Louisiana 98 96 99 95 Louisiana 92 93 97 89
Mississippi 95 77 85 89 Mississippi 82 67 77 81
Missouri 100 14 29 83 Missouri 83 10 21 67
Texas 98 93 95 97 Texas 83 79 80 89
6 States 90 57 69 83 6 States 75 45 53 68

Rice Co-Products - Spot market prices basis $ per short ton bulk, FOB mill (very limited supply in the South, except hulls)
Texas Louisiana Arkansas California
Bran: $110-$115 $105 $135 $140-$150
Mill Feed: $45 $35 $60
Ground Hulls: $5 $5 $15
Unground Hulls: $5 $5 $12 $8

Creed Rice Co. Inc.  800 Wilcrest Suite 200  Houston, Texas 77042  USA
Ph 1.713.782.3260  Fax 1.713.782.4671  www.creedrice.com  email: ricecreed@aol.com & creedinc@swbell.net
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May 18, 2011 - Page 4 of 4