FLOOD

Most of us have studied the "water cycle", or "hydrological system", in school.

Water circulates from clouds to the soil to streams to rivers to the oceans and
then returns to the clouds. When that system backs-up there is a flood.

"There's more water flowing through the hydrological system than the system
can draw off," says Frank Richards, a National Weather Service hydrologist (a
water scientist). "A flood is an imbalance."

What causes a flood?

A number of factors can contribute to that imbalance, including:

• heavy, intense rainfall

• run-off from a deep snow cover
• Over-saturated soil, when the ground can't hold anymore water.
• frozen soil
• high river, stream or reservoir levels caused by unusually large amounts
of rain
• ice jams in rivers
• urbanization, or lots of buildings and parking lots

There are two basic types of floods. In a regular river flood, water slowly climbs
over the edges of a river. The more dangerous type, a flash flood, occurs when a
wall of water quickly sweeps over an area. Almost three-quarters of the
approximately 92 deaths from floods each year are due to flash floods.

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Conquering The Flash Flood.
"Because the rainfall associated with flash flooding is so intense, it is among the
most challenging problems we have in meteorology," Richards says. "Bottom
line is, we don't do a good of predicting exactly where that type of rainfall will
fall."

But that may soon change. The National Weather Service is responsible for
predicting the weather and warning people about severe weather. Up until now,
meteorologists could only guess when a flash flood would occur. Now, they
have a new tool, called Doppler radars, which can track rainfall street by street.
This should provide more accurate flash flood warnings across the country. The
new radar systems should allow meteorologists to provide warnings before a
flash flood occurs.

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Controlling The River Flood.
River flooding, while often more damaging to property, is much easier to
predict. The land around a river is called a watershed. When rain falls on a
watershed, the land "sheds" the water into the river. "It's almost like a funnel,"
Richards says. "It's collecting water over a broad area and funnelling it this
narrow strip that is the river."

Residents and scientists can tell when there has been an unusual amount of
snow and rain, and they can see the river getting higher everyday. Early
prediction gives emergency officials time to evacuate residents in the danger
areas. For example, during the spring of 1997, the heavy flooding of cities along
the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota was predicted two months in
advance.

Another winter-related cause of river flooding is ice jams. At times, large

chunks of floating ice will pile up if they hit bend, bridge or other obstruction
and stop the river's flow.

"The phenomenon is very like when you were on an Interstate highway in an

urban area, and there's some sort of construction area where you go from a
certain number of lanes to one lane," Richards says. "The traffic backs up."

The '97 floods in the Upper Plains states were caused by heavy rainfall during
the fall. Water from that record rainfall froze, and snow then fell on the ice.
When the spring thaw came, not only the water from the winter snowfall but
also the water from the earlier autumn rainfall rushed into the Red River.

Human progress vs. Mother Nature.

Human activity that changes the surface of the Earth also effects the water
cycle, and can cause floods. Buildings, parking lots and roads, replace grass and
dirt with concrete. Under normal circumstances, soil acts like a sponge and
soaks up a fair portion of rainwater. But in crowded towns and cities, rainwater
flows into storm sewers and drainage ditches, and, at times, overloads them. An
urban area can be flooded by an amount of rainfall that would have had no
impact in a rural area.

The destruction of the nation's wetlands may also contribute to moderate floods.
The wetlands are the swampy land along the edges of some rivers. When it
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rains, the wet soil and mud of a wetland acts like a sponge and stores the extra
water. But much of America's wetlands have been drained for farmland or to
build houses. The only place flood water can go is up and over its normal
riverbanks and into areas where it can cause major damage.

Floods are primarily natural events. Human activity influences the frequency
and severity of floods, but they are created by Mother Nature. There is no really
workable protection against major floods like those that hit Grand Forks in the
spring of 1997 and the Mississippi River Basin in 1993. Our best defense
against floods is an understanding of the way people treat their environment and
better weather prediction.

What is a 500-year flood?

The waters that swept through Grand Forks, ND, and other cities in the
Northern Plains states was called a "500-year-flood," and other floods are called
"100-year-floods." But what does that means?
A 500-year-flood is so big and rare that it will normally happen only once every
500 years. A 100-year- flood is about once every 100 years.
That doesn't mean that a 500-year-flood can't happen the year after a 500-year-
flood. Every flood season has exactly the same chance - one in 500 -- of
producing a 500-year-flood, even in area that experienced a 500-year-flood the
season before.

Floods in Pakistan

The floods in Pakistan are now worse than Haiti's January 2010 earthquake, the
2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, and the 2005 Kashmir earthquake combined, the
United Nations' Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs announced
on Monday. The floods have killed 1,600, displaced 1 million from their homes,
and affected 15 million in all. The latter number includes many who, because
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they have lost access to food and clean drinking water, may be at serious risk of
starvation or such water-borne diseases as cholera. Here are the effects of this
ongoing humanitarian disaster.

• Deep Damage to Frail Pakistani Economy

The Sydney Morning Herald's Matt Wade writes, "The worst floods in
Pakistan's history are devastating its already fragile economy, adding
further instability to the troubled nation. The biggest city and commercial
hub, Karachi, is in danger of being hit by the floodwaters. ... Huge
damage has been caused to infrastructure including bridges, roads,
government buildings and electricity. The United nations says
reconstruction is likely to cost billions. ... The rescue effort is sapping the
government's budget, which had been under serious strain before the
floods. ... The economic problems have been blamed for stoking
militancy in the country and security experts have warned that the floods
could play into the hands of extremist groups if infrastructure and
livelihoods are not restored quickly."

• Continuing Rains Slow Relief Work

The Voice of America reports, "Relief workers in Pakistan say continued

heavy rains have worsened the situation in the country where raging
floodwaters have killed more than 1,600 people and affected 15 million.
The floods have destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and washed
away roads, bridges, crops and livestock. New downpours have hampered
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 relief efforts in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and
spread the floods to the agriculture heartland of Punjab and further south
along the Indus River into Sindh province."

• Food Prices Balloon Wildly

The Sydney Morning Herald's Matt Wade reports, "the consequences are
being felt across the country as food prices rise. There are reports the cost
of basics like onions, potatoes and tomatoes has quadrupled following the
inundation of huge tracts of prime farming land."

• Serious Risks for U.S. War in Afghanistan

Reuters' Sue Pleming warns that "fallout from the weak response of the
civilian government" could slow the efforts to calm Pakistani militancy.
Pleming also cites "the Pakistani military's attention ... being diverted
from its fight against militants in the border areas with Afghanistan where
U.S. troops are fighting the Taliban." Additionally, "Charities with links
to militants have taken advantage of the vacuum left in Pakistan and
delivered aid to thousands stranded by the floods, possibly boosting their
own standing among those communities."

• Government Stability Weakened

Academic and blogger Juan Cole cautions, "The ruling Pakistan People’s
Party is being widely criticized for its failure to respond to the massive
needs of the people, generated by this catastrophe. And President Asaf
Ali Zardari’s visit to the UK, where he met with British Prime Minister
David Cameron, has provoked a firestorm of criticism from Pakistanis
who think he should have stayed home and helped manage the crisis.
Anything that could pull down the government, as an inept response to
the flood could, has security implications in the fight against the Taliban.
(The Pakistani Taliban have actually taken advantage

5 Long-Term Effects of Pakistan Floods

More after weeks of flooding in Pakistan displaced two million people and left
more than 10 million at risk of disease outbreak because they lack access to
clean water, renewed flooding in Pakistan has displaced an additional one
million people over the past 48 hours alone, setting back a relief effort that has
struggled due to paltry donations. The displaced, often physically inaccessible
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to relief workers due to Pakistan's badly damaged infrastructure, face threats of
disease, starvation, and dehydration. But even once the immediate humanitarian
crises of the flood pass, experts say the floods will leave their impact on
Pakistan and the region for years or decades.

1. Lost Infrastructure Sets Pakistan Back Years

The New York Times' Carlotta Gall writes, "The destruction could set Pakistan
back many years, if not decades, further weaken its feeble civilian
administration and add to the burdens on its military. It seems certain to distract
from American requests for Pakistan to battle Taliban insurgents, who
threatened foreign aid workers delivering flood relief on Thursday. It is already
disrupting vital supply lines to American forces in Afghanistan. The flooding,
which began with the arrival of the annual monsoons late last month, has by
now affected about one-fifth of the country — nearly 62,000 square miles — or
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 an area larger than England, according to the United Nations."

2. Rumors That Gov't Controlled Flooding Worsen Mistrust

The Economist presents unverifiable but extremely disturbing rumors that,

simply by circulating and regardless of their veracity, will worsen the already
deep mistrust and hatred in Pakistan of the government. "Overall 1.2m homes
have been damaged or destroyed. Some 800,000 people remain cut off from all
help. Even where the government or aid agencies are present, the help is patchy
at best, with many left to fend for themselves. Now dark (and plausible)
accusations are circulating: the well-connected chose which areas were
purposefully flooded to relieve pressure elsewhere; aid is being diverted to
constituencies of powerful figures; woefully feeble flood-protection
infrastructure was left badly maintained."

3. Devastated Agriculture Will Cause Years of Food Shortage

The Economist reports, "Hunger may prove to be a bigger problem. An

estimated 23% of the year’s harvest was washed away, including a quarter of
the cotton crop, which matters to the economy. About 2.6m acres of cultivated
land have been drowned, says Pakistan’s National Disaster Management
Authority. Officials say that the rehabilitation will take three years, barring
more floods. Food inflation will hurt even the driest of the poor."

4. Taliban May Turn Against Humanitarian Workers

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While some militant groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba have actively participated
in recovery, the Associated Press' Shakil Adil reports that Tehrik-i-Taliban
Pakistan, sometimes called the "Pakistani Taliban," may exploit this as an
opportunity to attack Western aid workers. "The Pakistani Taliban on Thursday
hinted they might attack the foreign aid workers. The militant network has a
history of attacking aid groups, including agencies under the U.N. umbrella.
Militant spokesman Azam Tariq said the U.S. and other countries were not
really focused on providing aid to flood victims but had other motives he did
not specify."

5. This Flood Makes Pakistan More Susceptible to Future Floods

Foreign Policy's Ahmad Rafay Alam explains that, the worse the damage from
this year's round of seasonal flooding, the worse next year will be. "Pakistan is
already feeling the effects of climate change, and one of the effects climate
change brings is unexpected precipitation events. Of course, it's not all climate
change. Overdevelopment and the timber business, especially in Khyber-
Pakhtunkhwa, have devastated watershed areas and make it much easier for
water to flow down mountain and hillsides and create flash floods. I don't know
of Pakistan having any infrastructure to "prevent or alleviate" flooding. There
are laws prohibiting the felling of trees for the timber industry, but they operate
only within defined forest areas. We're not really doing anything about
overdevelopment and the destruction of forest cover and watershed areas, so in
the future we are going to see more of these tragic natural disasters."

After Flood Pakistan Economy

Pakistan’s worst ever flooding disaster has damaged twenty percent area of the
country, which is roughly equal to the size of England. It affected twenty
million peoples, intensified the energy crisis and may create fears of social
unrest in the near future.

This humanitarian disaster left more than five million people homeless and
around ten million in urgent need of humanitarian aid. According to the United
Nations, the disaster has affected close to 20 million people, killing 1,600 and
leaving 1.2 million homes damaged or destroyed.

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It is worth mentioning that most disastrous aspect of the river’s floods is not its
immediate effects; its after effects are considered much severe than its
immediate damages. Earthquakes and tsunamis damage suddenly the human life
on earth, but river floods are considered as slow tsunami because they affect the
human life more severely when flooding crisis is over. For instance flood along
Yangtze River in China in 1931 left 1.4 million people dead by drowning; while
ultimately this number had reached 3.7 million because of diseases and
starvation.

Apart from the human losses, the worst ever disaster in Pakistan is threatening
to disrupt the economy. Though, it is too early to estimate the economic cost of
the devastating floods at this stage as waves of floodwaters may bring more
destruction.

In comparison of magnitudes of human casualties and economic losses, the

worst ever disaster in Pakistan seems a less devastating; its severe problematic
aspect is its timing and the socio-economic characteristics of the region affected
by the flood. Majority of the poor in Pakistan lives in flood affected areas. Big
urban business tycoons or financial houses are not its direct sufferers; it directly
hits the areas where majority of the people under the absolute poverty is living.

This was the time when they were expecting to earn their long waiting annual
income by sale of cotton, sugarcane and other seasonal crops and they were
planning to start the cultivation of wheat in the coming month. The crisis during
the holy month of Ramazan and before celebrating Eid-ul-Fitr will further
deepen the social and psychological problems in the poor regions of Pakistan.

It is notable that the production and distribution of cotton has a pivotal role in
the economy of Pakistan. It is not only a part of economic strategy, but has its
social dimensions. Rural population in cotton and sugarcane growing areas
prepares its annual schedules of social activities with consideration of expected
cash flows. Those cash flows are received twice in a year: after the sale of
wheat and cotton crops.

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In the rural Pakistan, sale and purchase of assets, date of marriages, social
functions and gatherings, home construction, stock of consumable goods,
purchase of consumer durables, redemption of loans, funding for education and
the purchase of jewellery and clothes are based on the receipts of income from
cotton, sugarcane, rice and wheat crops.

When income from crops goes into the pockets of the growers, they transfer it
into banks and retailers of urban areas. The demand for consumers’ goods in the
urban areas increases at the end of crop seasons and income of the traders and
manufacturers of durable and consumers’ goods increases. This is the basic
simultaneity in the domestic economy of Pakistan. Unfortunately, flood
damaged this simultaneity.

Government officials have estimated only public sector infrastructure losses,

which range from $10 to $15 billion, which the country will have to spare for
rehabilitating and reconstructing of the infrastructure. The donor organisations,
including World Bank, Asian Development Bank, and the United Nations, are
also measuring the economic impact of the floods. All sources are agreed that
Pakistan’s economy would likely grow slower than predicted because of the
extent of the damage caused by the flooding. According to the Asian
Development Bank’s estimates, now Pakistan is unlikely to meet its 4.5 percent
economic growth rate target.

It is noteworthy that after recording its lowest growth in a decade, GDP had
been expected to grow by 4.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2011.
Now, it was assessed that Pakistan could achieve about 3.5 percent GDP growth
rate this fiscal year. It means a loss of around two billion dollars in terms of
GDP. This loss does not include the losses of assets and properties.

Agriculture accounts for 20 percent of Pakistan’s gross domestic product

(GDP). Flood has damaged crops sown over 1.93 million acres. It estimated
crop loss at one billion dollars, saying the full impact on soil erosion and
agriculture could only be assessed when the water recedes around mid-
September. The country has lost around 20 percent of its cotton crops.
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The destruction of cotton, rice, sugarcane, vegetable crops and fish farms are
enormous as well. Damage to cotton, rice, sugarcane and maize will hit the
export sector, the main source for Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves. Textiles
and agriculture account for about three quarters of Pakistan’s 21 billion dollar
export target this year. The floods have eaten about 20 percent of the cotton
crop (14 million bales for this year). It may negatively affect large-scale
manufacturing and exports by 25 percent.

The tragedy will strain the government’s finances in different ways. Before the
crisis, the budget deficit was expected to reach at 4.5 percent of Gross Domestic
Product (GDP), but now it could widen to as much as 6 percent to 7 percent of
GDP. Obviously to fulfil IMF conditionality in term of Budget Deficit to GDP
ratio is not possible in the present situation. The higher fiscal deficit would lead
to increase government borrowing. The crisis of external debt will become more
serious.

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