Model

Statis dan
Ainul Firdatun
Nisaa, S.T., M.Sc. Dinamis
Gasal 2021/2022
HAK CIPTA

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 Modul Dasar-Dasar Pemodelan Lingkungan
CPL
❑ Menguasai prinsip-prinsip dasar konsep teoritis science alam, aplikasi matematika rekayasa,
prinsip-prinsip rekayasa (engineering fundamental), science rekayasa, dan perancangan rekayasa
lingkungan serta sistem pengelolaan lingkungan;
❑ Menguasai prinsip-prinsip dasar teknologi pengendalian dan proses pencegahan pencemaran
lingkungan dan menguasai konsep aplikasinya dengan pendekatan sistem secara terintegrasi;
❑ Mampu mengaplikasikan teknologi lingkungan yang inovatif dalam mencegah dan menerapkan
pengendalian pencemaran lingkungan; dan

CPMK (salah satunya)

❑ Mampu menerapkan teori sains rekayasa, rekayasa perancangan, metode dan teknik terkini yang
diperlukan untuk analisis dan perancangan upaya pengelolaan lingkungan dalam mengerjakan
tugas secara mandiri
❑ Mampu mengembangkan pemikiran logis, kritis, sistematis, dan kreatif melalui penelitian ilmiah,
penciptaan disain dalam bidang ilmu pengetahuan dan teknologi yang memperhatikan dan
menerapkan nilai humaniora sesuai dengan bidang keahliannya, menyusun konsepsi ilmiah dan
hasil kajian berdasarkan kaidah, tata cara, dan etika ilmiah

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Cakupan Perkuliahan
Materi Latihan

Latar Belakang Dasar Matematika

Teoritis Model Lingkungan

Contoh-contoh
Aplikasi

• Terinformasi dengan baik mengenai model statis

• Terinformasi dengan baik mengenai model dinamis

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Modeling and Simulation
• Model
• A (usually miniature) representation of something; an example for imitation or
emulation [Merriam-Webster dictionary]
• A description of observed behavior, simplified by ignoring certain details. Models
allow complex systems to be understood and their behavior predicted within the
scope of the model, but may give incorrect descriptions and predictions for
situations outside the realm of their intended use.
• Simulation
• The imitative representation of the functioning of one system or process by means of
the functioning of another [Merriam-Webster dictionary]

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Why Simulate?
• It may be too difficult, hazardous, or expensive to observe a real, operational system
• Parts of the system may not be observable (e.g., internals of a silicon chip or biological
system)
Uses of simulations
• Analyze systems before they are built
• Reduce number of design mistakes
• Optimize design
• Analyze operational systems
• Create virtual environments for training, entertainment

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Applications: System Analysis
“Classical” application of simulation
• Telecommunication networks
• Transportation systems
• Electronic systems (e.g., microelectronics, computer systems)
• Battlefield simulations (blue army vs. red army)
• Ecological systems
• Manufacturing systems
• Logistics

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Applications:
On-Line
Decision
Aids

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Applications: Virtual Environments
Uses: training (e.g., military, medicine, emergency planning), entertainment
Simulations are often used in virtual environments to create dynamic computer generated
entities
• Adversaries and helpers in video games
• Defense: Computer generated forces (CGF)
• Automated forces
• Semi-automated forces

• Physical phenomena
• Trajectory of projectiles
• Buildings “blowing up”
• Environmental effects on environment (e.g., rain washing out terrain)

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Simulation Fundamentals
A computer simulation is a computer program that models the
behavior of a physical system over time.
• Program variables (state variables) represent the current state of the
physical system
• Simulation program modifies state variables to model the evolution of
the physical system over time.

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Types of Simulation Models

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 Stochastic vs. Deterministic
• Stochastic simulation: a simulation that contains random (probabilistic)
elements, e.g.,
• Examples
• Inter-arrival time or service time of customers at a restaurant or store
• Amount of time required to service a customer
• Output is a random quantity (multiple runs required analyze output)
• Deterministic simulation: a simulation containing no random elements
• Examples
• Simulation of a digital circuit
• Simulation of a chemical reaction based on differential equations
• Output is deterministic for a given set of inputs

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Random elements
• If a model does not have any random
component, it will provide the same results
each time it is run, assuming the same
inputs and initial conditions (in the case of a
dynamic model) are used.
• If the model contains any random
components, you can expect the model's
behavior to vary from run to run, even
when presented with the same inputs and
initial conditions.

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Why would you add random elements?
• Consider a simulation of a casino card game
such as blackjack
• While the vast majority of rules needed to model the
game are very clear-cut, and very deterministic (
what hand beats what other hand, when to draw
another card, etc..), a fundamental characteristic of
the game is that the cards are shuffled into random
order before beginning play.
• Casinos make a significant effort to ensuring that the
cards are shuffled into random order, typically using
automatic shuffling machines to do so.

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One of the
characteristics of the
deterministic effects is
the existence of the
threshold dose, which
means that exposure
to radiation under this
level causes no effects
but exposure to
radiation above this
level causes effects.

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Static vs. Dynamic Models
• Static models
• Model where time is not a significant variable
• Examples
• Determine the probability of a winning solitaire hand
• Static + stochastic = Monte Carlo simulation
• Statistical sampling to develop approximate solutions to numerical problems

• Dynamic models
• Model focusing on the evolution of the system under investigation over time
• Main focus of this course

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Static Model
• A static model is one which contains no internal history of either input
values previously applied, values of internal variables, or output values.
• Examples:
• A set of algebraic equations →

• In this type of model, each output (yi ) is dependent on some function (fi ) of the
inputs (ui ).
• To 'run' this type of static simulation model involves setting the parameters
of the equations, providing values for any inputs they may require, and
evaluating, which yields a set of results.
• A static model can be thought of as providing a 'snapshot' of a system's
response to a specified set of input conditions.
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 Dynamic Model
• Dynamic models provide one means of simulating the time-dependent behavior
of systems.
• The defining feature of a dynamic model is that unlike the static model, it does
maintain an internal 'memory' of some combination of prior inputs, internal
variables, and outputs.
• Example:
• The combination of algebraic and differential eq.

• There are still input variables (ui ) and output variables (yi ).
• The main addition is a series of state variables (xi) that are
dependent on both the input variables and themselves.
• The output variables (yi(t)) are defined by a set of functions 'g'
whose outputs are also dependent on the present state of the
input variables and the state variables. 18
Continuous vs. Discrete
• Discrete
• State of the system is viewed as changing at discrete points in time
• An event is associated with each state transition
• Events contain time stamp
• E.g., customers arrive at 3:15, 3:23, 4:01, etc.

• Continuous
• State of the system is viewed as changing continuously across time
• System typically described by a set of differential equations
• E.g., the amount of water flow over a dam

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Continuous vs.
Discrete

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 A statistical function which links or lists all the
possible outcomes a random variable can take,
Probability Distributions in any random process, with its corresponding
probability of occurrence.

• If a random variable can take only finite set

of values (Discrete Random Variable), then
its probability distribution is called as
Probability Mass Function or PMF →
example: rolling of a dice
• Probability distribution of continuous
random variable is called as Probability
Density Function or PDF → example: a
clock stops at any random time during the
day

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Simple System Behaviors
• Steady state → state variables are not changing
• Integration → a state variable increases (or decreases) in response to
some input variable
• Exponential growth & decay
• Oscillation
• Steady-state oscillation
• Increasing oscillation
• Decreasing oscillation
• Chaos

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Wrap-up
• Static vs. dynamic: A static simulation model, sometimes called
Monte Carlo simulation, represents a system at particular point in
time. A dynamic simulation model represents systems as they change
over time.
• Deterministic vs. stochastic: A deterministic simulation contains no
random variable(s). e.g. patients arrive in a doctor's office at a pre-
scheduled time. A stochastic simulation involves one or more random
variables as input.

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Terimakasih
Ainul Firdatun Nisaa, S.T., M.Sc.
firdatun@its.ac.id

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