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EMERGING MARKETS

OPPORTUNITIES - INDIA

2011 SPECIAL REPORT


EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 2

INSIDE THE REPORT

3 Prologue

India’s Economic Indicators

4 India as a preferred destination for Investments?

5 India’s Rating

6 India’s significance over the rest of world markets

7 Economic growth and projections by IMF

8 Sectoral Contribution to India’s Growth

9 Trends in Industrial Output

11 Foreign Investments & Performance Scenarios

13 Best Investment Options for 2011

16 Performance of Foreign Funds in India

17 Funds Status in India

19 Investment news

20 Concluding Remarks
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 3

PROLOGUE

The world’s largest democracy and second most populous nation, India has seen a significant
growth in its economic investment and output since the 1990s. As compared to figure, India’s
economy has shown an average growth rate of more than 7% in the decade since 1997, thereby
decreasing poverty by about 10 percentage points. The country’s diverse economy sees agricul-
ture as the primary dependence, though services now accounts for more than half of India’s output
and one third of its entire labor force. India had shown viable improvement in IT sector, becoming
a major exporter of software services and software/IT workers.

India emerged relatively untouched from the financial crisis of 2007-08 as it reported a strong GDP
growth of 7.4% in the 2009-10 fiscal year, even with a poor rainy season during this period. First
half GDP growth this year has been reported at 8.9 percent over the same period in the previous
year. India has also attracted large amounts of foreign investment in the form of FDI as well as
portfolio investments this year, due to its quick recovery from financial crisis.

The recovery crisis still prevails in nations like Europe and the United States, though India along
with many other emerging markets has seen an increased influx of foreign capital. Capital require-
ments for Indian industry remain high given the rapid expansion of the economy, which means FDI
investments are easily absorbed. Portfolio investment in India this year has broken all previous
records resulting in a steep rise in the equity markets.
This has increased the chances of bubble formation. Between April 1, 2009, and November 8,
2010, the BSE Sensex showed sharp hike from 9,901 points to an all-time closing high of 21,004
points. That index has been hovering around the 20,000 mark ever since.

The table below represents the trend of India’s major economic indicators over years

Country 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13


India: (Est) (Proj) (Proj) (Proj)
Selected Economic Real GDP 9.2 6.7 7.4 8.5 9.0 8.5
Indicators (at factor cost, % change)
Wholesale Price Index 4.5 8.3 3.4 8.0 6.0 5.0
(average % change)
Exports 26.4 7.9 -12.5 20.4 17.4 17.0
(% change in current US)
Imports 32.1 11.5 -7.8 18.3 15.3 14.4
(% change in current US)
Current Account Balance -1.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.1
(% of GDP)
General Government Deficit 5.0 8.8 9.5 8.5 7.4 6.6
Sources: Central Statistical
(% of GDP)
Organization, Reserve Bank
of India and World Bank Staff General Government Debt 74.5 75.1 77.1 74.1 71.3 69.2
Estimates. (% of GDP)
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 4

INDIA AS A PREFERRED DESTINATION FOR INVESTMENTS

India is expected to achieve 9 percent economic growth in the current financial year, driven by
strong performance by the agriculture and industria sectors. The economy grew by 8.9 per cent in
the second quarter of the FY2010.

India has emerged as one of the world’s top ten countries in industrial production. The
nation’s industrial production grew at the fastest, India is the world’s largest recipient of
overseas remittances. The remittances grew from $49.6 billion in 2009 to $55 billion in
2010. It is also the country with the second largest number of emigrants after Mexico,
according to the World Bank.

India is one of the fastest growing automobile markets in the world, expanding at 35
per cent on average in the first four months of the FY2010.

The Bombay Stock Exchange has been rated as the world’s best performing stock
market recently. With a 13 per cent gain, Sensex is among the world’s 10 biggest mar-
kets, according to data collected by Bloomberg.

The Indian economy is the eleventh largest in the world by nominal GDP and the fourth largest by
purchasing power parity (PPP).

India is among the top 10 nations in terms of foreign exchange reserves. The country’s foreign
exchange reserves breached the $300-billion mark for the first time since 2008 with an addition of
$2.2 billion on the back of a healthy rise in foreign currency. The nation’s forex reserves currently
stand at $296.40 billion.

India’s services sector, backed by the IT revolution, remains the biggest contributor to the coun-
try’s GDP, with a contribution of 58.4 per cent. The industry sector contributed 24.1 per cent and
the agriculture sector contributed 17.5 per cent to the GDP.

The Indian IT-BPO industry is expected to exceed $70 billion in fiscal 2011. The Indian IT-BPO
exports are projected to grow by 13 per cent to 15 percent while domestic IT-BPO will grow slightly
more by 15 per cent to 17 per cent during fiscal 2010-11.

India owns over 18,000 tonnes of above ground gold stocks worth approximately $800 billion and
representing at least 11 per cent of global stock, according to estimates of World Gold Council.
India ranks 11th in the world with 557.7 tonnes of gold reserves.

India’s civil aviation sector will be among the top five in the world in the next five years. Indian
domestic air traffic is expected to reach 160-180 million passengers per year, while international
traffic will exceed 80 million.

India, China and Brazil are the top three target countries for foreign direct investment until the end
of 2012 with the United States, for years number one, now in fourth place, according to the UN
trade and development agency UNCTAD.

The Indian telecommunications industry is the world’s fastest growing telecommunications indus-
try, 723.28 million telephone (landlines and mobile) subscribers and 687.71 million mobile phone
connections as of September 30, 2010.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 5

INDIA’S RATING

Standard & Poor’s raised India’s outlook to stable from negative on expectations that
the economy’s fiscal position may recover and the economy would remain on a strong
growth path. The agency also affirmed its rating on the long-term and short-term credit.
Following are key economic issues for Asia’s third-largest economy. India’s wholesale
price index topped expectation and came within touching distance of double digits in
February. Annual wholesale price inflation accelerated to 9.89 percent in February, the
highest since October 2008 and well above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) end-
March projection of 8.5 percent and the 8.56 percent January reading.

Fitch’s Outlook on Long-term ratings for Indian banks remains Stable in 2011, after a
negative bias in 2009 following the credit crisis.
The Stable Outlook reflects easing asset quality concerns, together with an improving
loan loss reserves position and expectations of further infusions of common equity by
the government.

Moody’s Investor Service had upgraded India’s local bond rating to “Ba1”, one notch below in-
vestment grade, citing improving public finances due to recent government reforms. Moody’s also
said it would consider unifying India’s local and foreign currency ratings at Baa3.

Fitch Ratings raised India’s local currency rating outlook to stable from negative forecasting
lower debt ratios on the back of strong economic growth and robust cash flows from telecom
auctions. The agency affirmed India’s BBB-minus local and foreign currency rating and the stable
outlook on its foreign currency rating.

COMPARITIVE SURVEY

Business Conditions
NCEAR Dun and Bradstreet and RBI (Per cent)

Survey: 225 75
A Comparison 70

HSBC-Market and FICCI (Per cent)


175 65

60

125 55

50

75 45

40

25 35
06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10
e p- ec- ar- un- ep- ec- ar- un- ep- ec- ar- un- ep- ec- ar- un- ep-
S D M J S D M J S D M J S D M J S

NCAER Dun&Bradstreet RBI-BEI


(Expectation Quarter)
HSBC-Markit FICCI
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 6

Reserve Bank’s 130


Industrial Outlook 125
Survey: 120
Business Expecation 115

Index
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10
20 p 20 20 r 20 20 p 20 c 20 r 20 20 p 20 c 20 r 20 n 20 p 20 c 20 r 20 20 p 20 c 20 r 20 n 20 p 20 c 20
un e ec a un e e a un e e a u e e a un e e a u e e
r -J ul-s t-D n-M r-J ul-s t-D n-M r-J ul-s t-D n-M pr-J ul-s t-D n-M r-J ul-s t-D n-M pr-J ul-s t-D
Ap J Oc Ja Ap J Oc Ja Ap J Oc Ja A J Oc Ja Ap J Oc Ja A J Oc

Assessment Expectations Threshold

INDIA’S SIGNIFICANCE OVER THE REST OF WORLD MARKETS

India to overtake US as 2nd largest economy by 2050:


PwC
As per the report published by PwC, India is expected to overtake the USA and emerge
as the World’s second largest economy on purchasing power
parity basis by 2050. It also stated that India has the potential to surpass China as the
country has a significantly younger and faster growing working
age population than China. Global financial crisis has further accelerated the shift in
economic power to the emerging economies.

India among the world’s top three preferred investment


hubs
A Columbia University report stated that India is amongst the world’s top three preferred
investment destinations, but equity caps limit the size of potential inflows. The report
stated that as the main drivers of foreign investment in India were liberalization in for-
eign direct investment (FDI) policy and several economic sectors, a globally competitive
workforce, and rapid gross domestic product (GDP) and market growth. It also stated
that India is presently the 13th largest in terms of foreign investment inflows, which
have risen 15-fold since 2000. The report said while investors initially concentrated on
manufacturing, power and telecommunications, they now focus on services.

India’s growth drives global economic recovery: World


Bank
World Bank President Robert Zoellick has recently stated that the high level of growth
in India is helping the international economy recover from the disastrous effects of
recent financial turmoil. He said that when the world economies were trying to recover
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 7

from financial turmoil, India’s growth rate picked up to 7.4 percent in 2009-10 from 6.7 percent a
year ago. The economy expanded by 8.9 percent in the first half of the current fiscal, making India
one of the fastest growing economies in the world. As per the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)
forecasts, Indian economy is expected to record a growth rate of 8.8 percent in 2010-11.

Domestic market opportunities are growing fast in India


As per the “India Economic Update by World Bank, the country’s middle class is estimated to
expand from 50 million people in 2005 to 500 million by 2025. The outlook for the next 20 years,
however, makes India an attractive market to invest in, and many international consumer goods
companies do so. For now many of them contend themselves with sales outlets rather than pro-
duction bases, because economies of scale allow them to do produce cheaper elsewhere. This is
changing, however, in particular when production costs in East Asia are rising with rising wages.

ECONOMIC GROWTH PROJECTIONS BY IMF

Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011


World Output 3.9 1.8 -2.0 3.6 3.4
(at Market Exchange Rates)
Advanced Economies 2.8 0.5 -3.2 2.6 2.4
Emerging & Develping Economies 8.3 6.1 2.4 6.8 6.4
U.S.A. 2.1 0.4 -2.4 3.3 2.9
Eurozone 2.8 0.6 -4.1 1.0 1.3
Germany 2.5 1.2 -5.0 1.4 1.6
France 2.3 0.3 -2.2 1.4 1.6
Italy 1.5 -1.3 -5.0 0.9 1.1
Spain 3.6 0.9 -3.6 -0.4 0.6
Netherlands 3.6 2.0 -4.0 1.3 1.3
Japan 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.4 1.8
U.K. 2.6 0.5 -4.9 1.2 2.1
Canada 2.5 0.4 -2.6 3.6 2.8
Austrailia 4.7 2.4 1.3 3.0 3.5
Korea, South 5.1 5.1 0.2 5.7 5.0
Taiwan 6.0 6.0 -1.9 7.7 4.3
Singapore 8.2 8.2 -2.0 9.9 4.9
China 13.0 9.6 8.7 10.5 9.6
Note : Asean 5 are Indonesia,
Thailand, Philippines, Malay- India 9.4 7.3 5.7 9.4 8.4
sia and Vietnam Asean 5 6.2 4.7 1.7 6.4 5.5
Source: Update to World Brazil 6.1 5.1 -0.2 7.1 4.2
Economic Outlook, IMF, July
Russia 8.1 5.6 -6.6 4.3 4.1
2010 and WEO April 2010
Database South Africa 5.5 3.7 -1.8 2.6 3.6
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 8

SECTORAL CONTRIBUTION TO INDIA’S GROWTH

The sectors contributing to the India’s GDP is big in numbers and includes food processing,
transportation equipment, petroleum, textiles, software, agriculture, mining, machinery, chemicals,
steel, cement and many others. Agriculture is the major occupation in India, employing more than
50 percent of the population while service sector employs more than 25 percent and the industrial
sector accounts more than 10 percent.

AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
Indian agricultural yields lag the highest yields found elsewhere in the world.

Outlook- The better rainfall this year has lead to far higher agricultural growth. The
Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) has reported that India’s farm sector grew by
2.5% and 4.4% in the first two quarters of this year and with the good rainy season this
year and the expectation of good rains next year too, the outlook for Indian agriculture
in 2011 is good. According to the monsoon forecasts by the Meteorological Depart-
ment, crop output is expected to show a strong rebound in 2010/11.
Ex

INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
The General Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has posted double digit growth rate driven by
similar growth rates in output in the manufacturing and mining sector. Manufacturing output growth
in 2009/10 was strong in all the quarters, especially in the case of capital goods and durable con-
sumer goods while growth in non-durable consumer goods were impacted by poor export growth
and a lower output of sugar.

Outlook- Industrial performance in India in 2011 will be influenced more by external factors than
the domestic circumstances. Domestic consumption and economic recovery in Europe and North
America will play a huge part in industrial growth in India. Industrial growth in 2011 is forecasted
to be between 6-7 percent with significant downside risks. Overall, GDP in the industrial sector is
forecasted to expand 9.6 per cent in 2010/11, rising to 10.3 per cent in 2011/12.
Ex

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
Services sector grew to 57 percent of GDP by 2009-10. The services industry in India
is well diversified due to which overall growth in the sector has been resilient even
through economic troughs.

Outlook - The outlook for services in 2011 is good to the extent that the Indian financial
system is nowhere nearly as exposed to the financial instruments or the loose lending
that many western banks were involved in. Overall, non-farm sector GDP grew by 8.8
per cent in 2009/10. The expansion in the services sector is expected to approach 9
per cent in 2010/11 and inch up to 9.6 per cent in 2011/12. Over all, the non-farm sec-
tor is expected to grow by 9.2 per cent in 2010/11 and 9.8 per cent in 2011/12.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 9

SERVICE SECTOR
Services sector grew to 57 percent of GDP by 2009-10. The services industry in India
is well diversified due to which overall growth in the sector has been resilient even
through economic troughs.

Outlook - The outlook for services in 2011 is good to the extent that the Indian financial
system is nowhere nearly as exposed to the financial instruments or the loose lending
that many western banks were involved in. Overall, non-farm sector GDP grew by 8.8
per cent in 2009/10. The expansion in the services sector is expected to approach 9
per cent in 2010/11 and inch up to 9.6 per cent in 2011/12. Over all, the non-farm sec-
tor is expected to grow by 9.2 per cent in 2010/11 and 9.8 per cent in 2011/12.

INDIA: RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK TYPE JANUARY 2011


Sovereign risk BB
Currency risk BB
Banking sector risk BB
Political risk BBB
Source :
Economic structure risk BBB
India: Country risk summary

FISCAL DEFICIT TRENDS (IN % OF GDP)

12%
States’ Fiscal Deficit
Off - Budget Liablities
10% Centre’s Fiscal Deficit

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%
Source : Ministry of Finance 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 10

TRENDS IN INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT (UNIT: PERCENT)

Sectoral Classification Use Based Classification


General Manufacture Electricity Mining Basic Capital Inter- Consumer
goods goods mediate goods
goods
Total Durables Non-Durables
2007/08
Q1 10.3 11.1 8.3 2.7 9.4 19.1 9.3 9.0 -0.7 12.4
Q2 8.7 8.9 7.1 7.4 9.3 21.3 10.5 2.2 -5.5 5.1
Q3 8.3 8.9 4.6 5.5 5.0 20.8 8.9 6.2 2.1 7.6
Q4 6.7 7.3 5.5 5.2 4.7 12.2 7.1 6.8 0.1 8.9
2008/09
Q1 5.3 5.8 2.0 4.0 3.1 7.9 2.6 8.6 3.5 10.1
Q2 4.7 4.9 3.2 3.8 4.7 13.2 -1.7 6.6 10.8 5.1
Q3 0.8 0.5 2.9 2.0 2.4 3.8 -5.8 3.3 -1.8 4.9
Q4 0.8 0.3 3.0 0.9 0.4 5.0 -3.2 1.2 5.6 -0.1
2009/10
Q1 3.8 3.4 6.0 6.8 6.3 2.0 7.4 -0.5 15.6 -5.3
Q2 9.0 9.2 7.4 9.0 5.9 8.6 11.7 10.1 23.7 5.1
Q3 13.4 14.6 3.8 10.3 6.1 21.6 19.3 12.5 33.7 6.0
Q4 15.1 16.0 6.7 12.7 10.1 41.1 17.1 7.5 31.5 0.2
2007/08 8.5 9.0 6.4 5.2 7.0 18.0 8.9 6.1 -1.0 8.5
2008/09 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 7.3 -2.1 4.7 4.5 4.8
2009/10 10.1 10.5 5.8 9.7 7.3 20.0 13.5 7.3 25.1 1.6
2010/11 9.8 10.1 7.5 8.0 5.7 28.0 6.3 8.5 16.5 5.3

Source : EAC, Gov of India

AVERAGE SECTORAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO ECONOMY (%CHANGE)

Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fisheries Manufacturing


Brazil Brazil
China China
Republic of Korea Republic of Korea
Russian Federation Russian Federation
India India
Mexico Mexico
South America, excl. Brazil South America, excl. Brazil
south Asia, excl. India south Asia, excl. India
south-East Asia south-East Asia
North Africa North Africa
Central Europe Central Europe
CIS, excl. Russian Fed. CIS, excl. Russian Fed.
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 87 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 87
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 11

Mining, quarrying and utilities Services

Brazil Brazil
China China
Republic of Korea Republic of Korea
Russian Federation Russian Federation
India India
Mexico Mexico
South America, excl. Brazil South America, excl. Brazil
south Asia, excl. India south Asia, excl. India
south-East Asia south-East Asia
North Africa North Africa
Central Europe Central Europe
CIS, excl. Russian Fed. CIS, excl. Russian Fed.
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 87 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 87

Source : World Bank; Period 1995-2010

FOREIGN INVESTMENTS & PERFORMANCE SCENARIOS


50000
Top ten sectors at-
45668
tracting FDI Inflows 45000
41938
(US$/mln) 40000 39455

35000

30000
26197 25411
25000 23221

20000 17842

15000 13925
12513
10446
10000

5000

0 s s
or re ns at
e
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a io t it we st t l ica
ar at Es tiv Po du us ra
eS i c al Ac In nd t u em
vic &
H un Re n ile lI Na Ch
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r
re
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ct
io ob ica &
wa co
m g& rg
t le sin tru tom lu um
of u ns Au al le
S Te Ho Co et
er M tro
pu
t Pe
m
Co

FDI
India, which was a minor global FDI player in 2000, is presently the world’s thirteenth largest FDI
host country.

Presently services sector accounts for approximately 61% of India’s annual FDI inflows and
manufacturing accounts for 27%, while primary sector activities (primarily mining and petroleum)
accounts for 9% approximately.

Eighty percent of post-2000 FDI inflows have been in the form of Greenfield investments.
The average investment size also quadrupled from US$ 9 million to US$ 34 million over this pe-
riod.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 12

Sectors attracting FDI While the largest recent greenfield investments span various sectors, the largest recent M&As
inflows (% Share) focus on telecommunications, energy and pharmaceutics/healthcare sector.

In 2010/11 and 2011/12 analysts forecast a continued expansion of net FDI to $30 billion in both
4%
3%
years, portfolio capital inflows of $25 billion and $35 billion and a steady increase in net loan capi-
4%
tal inflows to $17 and $25 billion respectively.
6%
30%

7% Overall, our estimates for capital inflows are $73 billion in 2010/11 and $91 billion in 2011/12.
This would be adequate to finance the large current account deficit in the two years and leave a
10% modest $31 and $41 billion (2.0 and 2.4 per cent of GDP) to be absorbed in the foreign exchange
reserves.
12%
12%
12%

Offshore opportunity
Service Sector
Computer Software & Hardware
Despite India accounting for 51 per cent market share of the off shoring market, there is
Telecommunications still tremendous space for growth as current off shoring market is still a small part of the
Housing & Real Estate
outsourcing industry.
Construction Activities
Power
Automobile Industry Indian companies are expected to focus on mainland Europe to tap growth opportunities
Metallurgical Industries
Petroleum & Natural Gas
in the offshore technology services market worth tens of billions of dollars.
Chemicals

According to Gartner Research, the country’s technology services, dominated by IT


services exports worth USD 60 billion will touch USD 3.6 trillion in 2011.

60000

52398

50000

40000

30000

20000

11557
10000 9204
6269 5289 4631 4498
2903
1870 1828
0
s re A s n us y ce E
iu po US UK nd pa pr an an UA
rit la Ja Cy rm
au ng
a
er e Fr
M Si th G
Ne

Exports
India’s exports showed an extraordinary annual growth of 36.4% which was highest in 33
-month with consignments in December 2010 raising prospects of the country exporting
$215-225 billion worth of merchandise in the current fiscal.

IndiExports in December aggregated $22.5 billion, while imports contracted by 11.1% to


$25.1 billion, resulting in a narrow trade deficit of $2.6 billion, the lowest in three-year.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 13

Countries attracting
FDI inflows (% Share) In 2010/11, analysts forecast the value of crude oil imports to be high due to increase in
crude prices by almost 15 per cent and an increase in the quantities imported.
2% 2%
4%
3%
The oil import bill is expected to rise to $103 billion in 2010/11 and to $120 billion in
5% 2011/12. Amongst the non oil imports, a comparatively slower growth is expected in the
5% case of gold, silver imports and a stronger growth in the remaining segments.

6% 52% The overall merchandise imports on balance-of-payments basis are expected to rise to
nearly $354 billion (up 18 per cent) in 2010/11 and $414 billion (up 17 per cent) in
9%
2011/12.
12%
On the export side, petroleum products would be slightly higher than that of imports at
24 and 16 per cent in 2010/11 and 2011/12 respectively.

Mauritius Japan
100
Singapore Cyprus
USA Germany
80
UK France
Netherlands UAE

60
Growth (in per cent)

40

20

-20

-40

-60
Apr-08
May-08
Jun-08
Jul-08
Aug-08
Sep-08
Oct-08
Nov-08
Dec-08
Jan-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Exports Imports

BEST INVESTMENT OPTIONS FOR 2011

The Indian Securities market remained stable during 2009-10, as the global markets
too witnessed improved stability with an indication of prospects of firm recovery.
However, fiscal concerns remain strong as sovereign risks continue to be a cause of
concern in some European countries.

Primary Securities Market and Secondary Securities Market


Indian primary market witnessed renewed activity in terms of resource mobilisation and num-
ber of issues during 2009-10, building it further from its relatively subdued pace in 2008-09. In
view of the recovery witnessed in equity markets post global financial crisis, companies entered
the primary market and investors’ response to public issues was encouraging in 2009-10 when
compared to 2008-09. Secondary market also witnessed revival following sharp fall in the previ-
ous year in the wake of global financial crisis that had plunged global equity markets. Investors
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 14

24000 20000

19000
18000

14000
16000
9000

Rs crore
14000
4000

12000
-1000

-6000 10000

-11000 8000

Aug-10
Dec-09

Feb-10
Jun-09

Jun-10
Aur-09
Apr-09

Apr-10
Oct-09
FII Investment Average BSE Sensex (RHS)
Mutual Fund Investment

regained confidence and the Indian market rallied post announcement of general election results
during May 2009.

Equity Growth
During 2009-10, all the equity markets witnessed uptrend, however, in different mag-
nitude. The Indian benchmark indices namely BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty gave
year on year return of 80.5 percent and 73.8 percent respectively in 2009-10. The BSE
Small-cap index recorded an increase of 161.7 percent in 2009-10. Among the sec-
toral indices, highest increase was recorded by BSE Metal index (210.2 percent), BSE
Consumer Durables (159.7 percent) and BSE Auto index (150.6 percent). While the
metal index reflected the strengthening of metal prices, the general upward trend in the
economy and industrial production got reflected in increase in the capital goods and
auto indices.

The equity market has entered territory that it occupied exactly two years ago and in
similar
fashion the level of the stock market (the Bombay Sensitive Index or SENSEX) is close to 21,000.
Relative valuations are on the richer side and hence analysts expect moderation in index
returns for 2011 (in the 10- 15 percent zone from current levels).

Investments in Mutual Funds


Mutual funds after witnessing redemption pressures during later half of 2008-09 post global
credit crisis witnessed renewal of investors’ interest in terms of mobilization of resources through
new fund offerings as well as existing schemes. The gross mobilisation of resources by all mutual
funds during 2009-10 was at Rs.100190 billion compared to Rs.54263 billion during the previous
year indicating an increase of 84.7 percent over the previous year. Redemption also rose by 82.2
percent to Rs.99359 billion in 2009-10 from Rs.54546 billion in 2008-09.

All mutual funds, put together, recorded a net inflow of Rs.830 billion in 2009-10 as compared
to an outflow of Rs.282 billion in 2008-09. The assets under management by all mutual funds
increased by 47.2 percent to Rs.6139 billion at the end of March 2010 from Rs.4173 billion at the
end of March 2009.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 15

PE and Venture Capital Investments


The year 2011 is likely to witness maximum number of private equity/venture capital exits in the
history of Indian PE industry. The typical cycle of investment-exit is expected to get completed in
2010-11 for many PE investors in India.

Private equity firms exited a record 121 companies in India during 2010, while investments almost
doubled to $7.97bn from the 2009 figure. Venture capital and private equity investments in India
had witnessed a phenomenal growth both in terms of amount invested (from $1.8 billion in 2004 to
$22 billion in 2007 before tapering off to $8.1 billion in 2008) as well as the number of deals (from
80 in 2004 to 481 in 2007 and then slowing down to 297 in 2008). There were huge PE invest-
ments in technology-led, capital intensive sectors like Telecom, Power and Infrastructure in ad-
dition to those sectors that were traditionally preferred by VCPE investors like IT & ITES, Health-
care, etc. Private Equity firms invested $7,974 million over 325 deals in India during the 12 months
ending December 2010, compared to $4,068 million across 290 deals during the previous year,
according to analysis by Venture Intelligence, a research service focused on Private Equity and
M&A activity. (These figures include VC investments and exclude PE investments in Real Estate).
With 34 investments worth about $2,141 million, Energy companies topped in terms of investment
value during 2010, while Information Technology and IT-Enabled Services (IT & ITES) with 79
investments worth $696 million topped in terms of volume. BFSI with 44 investments worth $1,054
million came second on both parameters.

IPOs in 2010
Indian IPO market has witnessed a strong comeback in 2010 after sluggish performance in 2009
as most of the companies rushed to capital markets to raise funds on encouraging stock markets.
Jubilant FoodWorks, Thangamayil Jeweller, Talwalkars Better Value Fitness emerged as top 3
performers in 2010. Meanwhile, Coal India and MOIL were most successful IPOs which received
overwhelming response from investor community.

IPO 2011 Scenario – India IPO 2011 outlook seems bright with at least 100 public is-
sues in the pipeline, with an indicative size of around Rs 400billion. If the government
maintains its Rs 400 billion target for the next fiscal too, total may be Rs 900 billion, up
27% from 2010. Thirty five
prospectuses have already got the SEBI’s clearance, while the remaining sixty five
are awaiting nod. The country also celebrated its biggest IPO ever this year with the
world’s largest coal producer Coal India, collecting $3.5 billion in October. Big private
companies, like Jindal Power and Sterlite Energy which are planning an initial public of-
fering in 2011, may have to lower valuation expectations as investors turn choosy, after
profiting from state-owned companies’ issues that were priced attractively. IPO outlook
for the year 2011 will see a massive bunch of issues hit the market unlike before and
the issuers will have to price their trade more sensibly to attract investor attention.

Corporate Bond Market


The number of trades in corporate bonds during 2009- 10 rose by 68.5 percent in
comparison to 2008-09. In comparison to increase in number oftrades, increase in the
volume of trades during 2009-10 is very significant. This increase is mainly attributed to
increase in volume of trades reportedat FIMMDA by 218.5 percent followed by NSE at
206.9 percent and BSE at 42.9 percent.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 16

PERFORMANCE OF FOREIGN FUNDS IN INDIA

Fund Name Performance


1 Mth % 3 Mths % 6 Mths % 1 Yr % 3 Yrs %
AIG India Equity Fund - Reg - Growth -9.69 -11.01 -3.93 3.24 -0.11
Benchmark Derivative Fund - Growth 0.54 1.7 3.25 4.75 N/A
Benchmark Equity And Derivative Opportunities Fund - Growth 0.69 2.06 3.76 5.46 5.52
Benchmark S&P CNX 500 Fund - Growth -10.92 -13.23 -2.75 5 N/A
BNP Paribas China-India Fund - Growth -7.41 -10.59 -1.39 9.14 -0.96
BNP Paribas Dividend Yield Fund - Growth -9.16 -13.04 -1.82 14.49 7.93
BNP Paribas Equity Fund - Growth -10.4 -10.08 1.69 11.15 -3.49
BNP Paribas Mid Cap Fund - Growth -13.59 -18.49 -8.15 9.65 -10.27
BNP Paribas Opportunities Fund - Growth -11.23 -15.68 -6.05 4.61 -14.5
BNP Paribas Sustainable Development Fund - Growth -11.46 -14.88 -4.45 5.65 -1.76
Fidelity Equity Fund - Growth -9.11 -10.65 0.01 18.34 7.26
Fidelity India Growth Fund - Growth -9.33 -10.26 0.48 18.01 7.61
Fidelity India Special Situations Fund - Growth -9.21 -12.22 -1.27 13.18 3.65
Fidelity India Value Fund - Growth -9.92 -14.27 -3 10.59 N/A
Fidelity International Opportunities Fund - Growth -6.46 -6.72 3.23 17.8 7.39
Franklin Asian Equity Fund -Growth 1.36 3.1 9.89 17.26 6.95
Franklin India Bluechip - Growth -8.53 -7.89 2.5 14.86 7.29
Franklin India Flexi Cap Fund - Growth -8.92 -11.62 1.13 14.19 5.6
Franklin India High Growth Companies Fund - Growth -11.22 -16.62 -3.89 4.87 0.36
Franklin India Index Fund - BSE Sensex Plan - Growth -10.31 -9.95 1.84 12.23 0.56
Franklin India Index Fund - NSE Nifty Plan - Growth -10.26 -10.39 1.33 12.11 1.09
Franklin India Opportunity Fund - Growth -9.99 -13.03 -1.48 9.2 -2.62
Franklin India Prima Fund - Growth -12.9 -17.71 -6.76 6.05 0.78
Franklin India Prima Plus - Growth -8.16 -9.72 0.77 11.66 4.51
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - Growth -11.24 -16.73 -5.71 6.45 -0.74
HSBC Dynamic Fund - Growth -8.48 -9.91 3.05 11.39 -3.13
HSBC Equity Fund - Growth -8.7 -10.29 1.66 13.6 0.17
HSBC India Opportunities Fund - Growth -9.4 -11.33 0.67 10.92 -2.67
HSBC Midcap Equity Fund - Growth -15.4 -22.98 -9.91 -2.36 -5.92
HSBC Progressive Themes Fund - Growth -14.38 -22.71 -12.5 -5.39 -11.95
HSBC Unique Opportunities Fund - Growth -9.79 -13.25 2.89 13.25 -5.61
ING C.U.B. Fund - Growth -10.91 -16.16 -6.04 7.41 -3.28
ING Contra Fund - Growth -10.71 -13.9 -5.8 2.66 2.85
ING Core Equity Fund - Growth -8.67 -10.59 2.24 14.54 0.27
ING Dividend Yield Fund - Growth -8.68 -12.5 -0.96 17.33 13.67
ING Domestic Opportunities Fund - Growth -10.43 -15.36 -5.34 6.88 -1.66
ING Midcap Fund - Growth -10.28 -15.54 -7.4 7.46 -2.04
ING Nifty Plus Fund - Growth -10 -10.12 1.36 11.87 1.22
ING OptiMix Multi Manager Equity Fund - Plan A - Growth -12.14 -15.46 -7.37 3.71 -7.51
JPMorgan India Equity Fund - Growth -10.8 -12.27 -0.38 16.57 -0.18
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 17

JPMorgan India Smaller Companies Fund - Growth -12.92 -16.98 -7.05 12.18 -5.91
Morgan Stanley A.C.E Fund - Growth -11.2 -13.8 -3.17 10.69 N/A
Morgan Stanley Growth Fund - Growth -11.74 -14.64 -1.86 10.35 -0.19
Pramerica Equity Fund - Growth -10.24 N/A N/A N/A N/A
PRINCIPAL Dividend Yield Fund - Growth -10.22 -14.89 -1.39 14.21 4.81
Principal Emerging Bluechip Fund - Growth -13.69 -17.82 -7.6 4.96 N/A
PRINCIPAL Growth Fund - Growth -11.41 -13.79 -4.31 4.28 -8.12
PRINCIPAL Index Fund - Growth -10.29 -10.47 1.24 11.76 0.04
Templeton India Equity Income Fund - Growth -5.56 -4.73 10.21 21.33 10.68
Templeton India Growth Fund - Growth -9.87 -11.89 0.86 12.23 9.19
Note: Performances till date

FUNDS STATUS IN INDIA

Asset
Fund Name No. of Under Billion
Schemes* Manage- Rupees
ment

As on Corpus As on Corpus Net inc/dec in


corpus
AIG Global Investment Group Mutual Fund 45 31-Dec-10 8.83 30-Sep-10 10.20 -1.37
Axis Mutual Fund 39 31-Dec-10 50.13 30-Sep-10 46.36 3.77
Baroda Pioneer Mutual Fund 33 31-Dec-10 29.61 31-Oct-10 41.39 -11.78
Benchmark Mutual Fund 18 31-Dec-10 29.35 30-Nov-10 29.90 -0.55
Bharti AXA Mutual Fund 45 31-Dec-10 4.12 30-Sep-10 5.11 -0.99
Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund 238 31-Dec-10 576.89 31-Oct-10 613.55 -36.66
BNP Paribas Mutual Fund 119 31-Dec-10 50.21 30-Sep-10 49.65 0.56
Canara Robeco Mutual Fund 90 31-Dec-10 73.92 30-Sep-10 77.19 -3.26
Daiwa Mutual Fund 11 31-Dec-10 1.35 30-Sep-10 3.19 -1.84
Deutsche Mutual Fund 133 31-Dec-10 62.85 30-Nov-10 65.21 -2.36
DSP Blackrock Mutual Fund 126 31-Dec-10 276.68 30-Sep-10 266.74 9.94
Edelweiss Mutual Fund 39 31-Dec-10 2.14 30-Sep-10 2.15 -0.01
Escorts Mutual Fund 30 31-Dec-10 2.03 30-Sep-10 1.98 0.05
Fidelity Mutual Fund 79 31-Dec-10 89.01 30-Sep-10 85.36 3.65
Franklin Templeton Mutual Fund 163 31-Dec-10 394.4 30-Sep-10 421.42 -27.00
HDFC Mutual Fund 201 31-Dec-10 878.83 30-Sep-10 931.06 -52.22
HSBC Mutual Fund 83 31-Dec-10 47.29 30-Sep-10 48.10 -0.81
ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund 379 31-Dec-10 658.41 30-Sep-10 697.28 -38.87
IDBI Mutual Fund 12 31-Dec-10 20.52 30-Sep-10 22.00 -1.48
IDFC Mutual Fund 201 31-Dec-10 173.48 30-Sep-10 183.98 -10.51
ING Mutual Fund 85 31-Dec-10 13.86 30-Sep-10 14.68 -0.82
JM Financial Mutual Fund 88 31-Dec-10 64.54 30-Nov-10 63.30 1.24
JPMorgan Mutual Fund 37 31-Dec-10 51.96 30-Sep-10 84.48 -32.52
Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund 152 31-Dec-10 265.89 30-Sep-10 284.30 -18.41
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 18

L&T Mutual Fund 81 31-Dec-10 31.93 30-Sep-10 35.43 -3.50


LIC Mutual Fund 62 31-Dec-10 186.95 30-Sep-10 197.27 -10.32
Mirae Asset Mutual Fund 33 31-Dec-10 3.28 30-Sep-10 2.75 0.53
Morgan Stanley Mutual Fund 12 31-Dec-10 23.61 30-Sep-10 23.51 0.10
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund 2 31-Dec-10 3.01 30-Sep-10 3.05 -0.04
Peerless Mutual Fund 24 31-Dec-10 23.06 30-Nov-10 20.94 2.11
Pramerica Mutual Fund 14 31-Dec-10 11.09 30-Sep-10 6.30 4.78
PRINCIPAL Mutual Fund 72 31-Dec-10 57.64 30-Sep-10 56.42 1.22
Quantum Mutual Fund 11 31-Dec-10 1.17 30-Sep-10 1.19 -0.03
Reliance Mutual Fund 242 31-Dec-10 1020.66 30-Sep-10 1077.49 -56.82
Religare Mutual Fund 110 31-Dec-10 104.11 30-Sep-10 107.80 -3.69
Sahara Mutual Fund 44 31-Dec-10 3.16 30-Sep-10 7.56 -4.40
SBI Mutual Fund 155 31-Dec-10 414.98 30-Sep-10 421.00 -6.03
Sundaram Mutual Fund 175 31-Dec-10 145.29 30-Sep-10 142.41 2.88
Tata Mutual Fund 183 31-Dec-10 208.55 30-Sep-10 219.64 -11.09
Taurus Mutual Fund 56 31-Dec-10 25.33 30-Nov-10 23.68 1.65
UTI Mutual Fund 227 31-Dec-10 653.87 30-Sep-10 676.18 -22.30
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 19

INVESTMENT NEWS

Global investors buy stocks at record high on rising


outlook
The Securities and Exchange Board of India, nation’s market regulator stated recently
that the Global funds purchased a net 2.24 billion rupees ($49.2 million) of Indian
equities on Feb. 4. It stated that foreigners bought 25.8 billion rupees of shares, while
they sold 23.5 billion rupees. Overall in 2010, the global investors bought a record 1.33
trillion rupees of shares, raising the benchmark index 17 percent and making it the
best performer among the world’s 10 biggest equity markets. They invested 464 billion
rupees in bonds last year.

Indian stocks a clear buy: Goldman


Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s chief investment officer for India, Prashant
Khemka had stated recently that Indian stocks remains on top pref-erence for buy for
the next few years because inflation fears and concerns about overvaluation are unjus-
tified. Khemka believes that Indian compa-nies’ earnings could post annual growth of
up to 20 percent over the next three to four years. He said that sluggish growth in the
U.S. or Europe is good for India rather than a concern for two reasons: first, exports as
a percentage of the economy is much smaller for India compared with most countries;
second, it helps to keep in check commodity prices, mainly crude oil.” He further stated
that Indian IT sector also benefited from low capi-tal expenditure and high returns, mak-
ing it an attractive investment opportunity.

Indian Bonds see steady returns


Indian bonds seem an attractive buy for International investors to lock in the highest yields since
2008, with the rupee forecasted to generate the world’s biggest returns after the Turkish lira.
According to the Bloomberg data the rupee is expected to generate a return of 13% including
interest-rate income this year, more than four times the 3% gain predicted for China’s yuan. Over-
seas investments in Indian bonds reached an all-time high of $20.3 billion in January as 10-year
yields jumped 0.24 percentage point, the first monthly increase since October.

HSBC plans to enter Indian equities


Garry Evans the Global Head of Strategy at HSBC said that the Emerging Markets are fundamen-
tally under owned by global investors. He also stated that HSBC may enter Indian equities in the
next one or two quarters. “It is getting at a more attractive price level and the fundamental story
still re-mains very attractive for Indian equities”, he says.

Morgan Stanley plans investments in India infrastructure firm


Morgan Stanley’s Global Infrastructure Fund plans investment $200 million for an equity stake in
the Indian arm of privately held Spanish construc-tion firm Isolux Corsan, the Economic Times
newspaper stated. The paper stated that funds worth $4 billion fund, which was raised in May
2008, will invest in Isolux which builds roads in north India.
EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES l INDIA 20

Investors prefer Indian stocks, a lucrative bargain


Betting on emerging markets could yield lucrative bargains and be safer than standing pat in the
United States and risking a double dip, hedge fund managers said. Investors are now looking for
“undiscovered” companies so as to make more money rather relying on market which are termed
more efficient.

CONCLUDING REMARKS

The overall performance of the Indian economy in 2009/10 was beyond expectations. The farm
sector which was forecasted to contract showed resilience, growing by 0.2 percent despite the
weak South West monsoon. The non- farm sector also followed the same line with strong per-
formance. It is estimated that the Indian economy would grow at 8.5 percent in 2010/11 and 9.0
percent in 2011/12. In the current fiscal year, agriculture will grow at 4.5 percent, industry at 9.7
percent and services at 8.9 per cent.

The beginning of the new decade heralds the slow, but steady end of the worst recession in the
past 60 years. Global GDP, after declining by 1.1 per cent in 2009, is predicted to increase by 3.1
per cent in 2010, and 4.2 per cent in 2011, with developing economies growing thrice as fast as
the developed economies.

Disclaimer - All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly
available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy
or completeness of this report. This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or
underwrite securities or units. This document is provided for information purposes only and should
not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment. This document has not been prepared
in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment
research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment
research. It may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the
value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future
performance.

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