Mercedes B. Concepcion
*Professor, University of the Philippines Population Institute, Quezon
City Metro manila, the Philippines*
1. Introduction
In mid-1995, the world's elderly population (herein defined as
persons 60 years and older) was estimated at 542.7 million, nearly
equaling Africa's population in 1985. One in eleven of the earth's
inhabitants is at least 60 years of age. Fifty-five per cent of the world's
elderly are women, underscoring their lower levels of mortality as
compared to men.
Changes in age distributions, which are occurring as a consequence
of declines in fertility and mortality levels, have led to two distinct
trends. One is the ageing of population, the other is its juvenation.
However, according to the United Nations (1988), the most dominant
trend from the mid-1980s to the first half of the 21st century, in both
the more and the less developed regions, will be the ageing of
populations. In many low fertility and low mortality countries, natural
increase can no longer sustain population growth and such countries
may expect a decline of their population size. At low fertility levels, the
improvement of mortality, particularly at old age, will be a major factor
in the growth and ageing of populations. In the Third World, population
ageing is primarily a result of the diminution in the proportions at the
younger ages, a result of falling fertility. As both fertility and mortality
levels continue to descend to much lower levels in the less developed
regions, their age distributions will very closely resemble those of the
more developed regions in 1950.
Over half (52 per cent) of the world's senior citizens dwell in Asia;
four in every fifteen are concentrated in Eastern Asia1, one in six
inhabit South-Central Asia, about one in fifteen live in Southeast Asia
and the remainder reside in Western Asia. Less than two in five (39 per
cent) of the world's elderly are to be found in the more developed
regions. Of this proportion, 64 per cent are located in Europe, 22 per
cent live in North America, 12 per cent reside in Japan and the
remaining 2 per cent in Australia and New Zealand.
The ageing and feminization of the world population is clearly
evident in table 1 where the projected male population for Europe,
aged at least 60 years in 1995, makes up about one-sixth (16 per cent)
of the total male population whereas the corresponding proportion of
women comprises two-ninths (22 per cent). Thirty years later, the
European elderly male population is forecasted to reach almost a
quarter (24 per cent), while their female counterparts are expected to
account for three-tenths (30 per cent) of all women in the European
region. The corresponding proportions in 2050 are anticipated to reach
28 and 34 per cent, respectively. Eastern Asia, which reports one-ninth
of its female population as elderly, will be a close second to North
America's elderly female populations in 55 years' time (27 vs. 29 per
cent). The fractions of male elderly in Eastern Asia are foreseen to rise
from one-eleventh (9 per cent) in mid-1995 to nearly a quarter (24 per
cent) by the mid-21st century.
A significant fraction of this expansion will be due to greater female
longevity at the very old ages. In 1995, as shown in table 2, European
men aged 80 and older constitute close to 12 per cent of the male
elderly population; women aged 80 and over formed 19 per cent of the
female elderly population. By 2050, with improved life expectancies,
one in five elderly European men are foreseen to be at least 80 years
while the analogous proportion for women is anticipated to be two in
seven. Parallel proportions for Eastern Asia reveal that the very old
men and women make up and over 11 per cent of the 1995 elderly
population, respectively. By the middle of the coming century, the
corresponding percentages are contemplated to be 15 and 22 per
cent.
The following sections will describe the rapid greying of Asia and
Oceania, concentrating on the changes in age structure using relevant
indicators; the sex ratios, life expectancy, urban-rural residence and
marital status of the elderly, and the support ratios which measure the
potential stress that shifting age structures place on a society. The
indicators were calculated using data from the United Nations
publications: The Age and Sex Distribution of the World Populations:
The 1994 Revision (1994), The World Population Prospects: The 1994
Revision (1995) and the special issue on Population Ageing and the
Situation of Elderly Persons of the Demographic Yearbook(1993).
Supporting data, where appropriate, were obtained from cross country
studies on ageing undertaken by the Economic and Social Commission
for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) in connection with its projects on
Emerging Issues of the Ageing of Population(1989) and on Local-Level
Policy Development to Deal with the Consequences of Population
Ageing(1994). In this chapter, Western Asia is excluded in the
discussion except for comparative purposes and only those countries
in the Pacific area for which data are available in the United Nations
publications are included.
2. Current Situation and Prospects
Across Asia, populations are ageing rapidly. In some of the countries,
notably China, population ageing will proceed much faster than
comparable socio-economic growth, an unprecedented development in
world history. In fact, ageing, like transformations in birth and death
rates, does not take much time any more. While it took France some
140 years to double the proportion of its population, 60 year sand
older, to 18 per cent in 1976, only 45 years will pass in China before
improved health care and low fertility allow the percentage of the
elderly to increase from 6 per cent in 1970 to 14 per cent in 2015.
3. Age Structure Changes
3.1 Population 60+
The transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality
induces profound alterations in age structure. As decreases in
mortality usually precede similar declines in fertility and since the
diminution in mortality at elevated levels tends to be particularly
salient for infants and children, the age structure becomes younger at
the demographic transition's early stages. When significant decreases
in fertility are initiated, the age structure trend changes direction and
the population starts to age. Continued fertility decline and extensive
mortality decreases at middle and older ages contribute to further
population ageing.
The accompanying figure 1 shows the trend in the proportions of the
elderly between 1950 and 2050 for Asia and Oceania. Although these
two regions are at different stages of the demographic transition, their
age structures are following and are projected to follow the course of
the transition. It is evident that in 1950, the latter's percentage of
persons 60+ surpassed the former's by about 5 percentage points. A
century later, it is foreseen that the proportion of elderly Asian women
will exceed that of their male counterparts in Oceania but will still lag
behind their Pacific sisters by 3 percentage points.
In mid-1995, as recorded in table 3, Japan (22 per cent), Australia
and New Zealand (17 per cent each) and Hong Kong (16 per cent) had
the largest proportions of women elderly in the region under review.
On the other hand, while Japan reported the highest proportion of
elderly men (18 per cent), Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong had
around 14 per cent of their male population aged 60. Singapore and
the Republic of Korea both reported 11 per cent of their female
population to be 60 years or older while the analogous proportion for
China was 10 per cent. The lowest female fractions were those of
Vanuatu, East Timor and the Solomon Islands - about 4 per cent. The
countries with the lowest male elderly ratios were Cambodia and
Samoa (3 per cent). The rest of the countries had percentages ranging
from 5 to 9 per cent for women and 4 to 9 per cent for men. By 2050,
two in five Japanese women will be at least 60 years of age; the
corresponding fraction for Japanese men will be one in three. In
contrast, only one in nine women and one in ten men in Afghanistan
are foreseen to belong to the elderly group. Among the subregions,
South-Central Asia will lag behind its mates in Eastern and
Southeastern Asia and Oceania. Table 3 also reveals that with very few
exceptions, the percentges of women elderly surpass those of men.
The absolute increase in the number of elderly is another way of
examining population ageing and is the most relevant to policy
planners and service providers. Among the countries, China is
projected to have the largest absolute increase--nearly 160 million--in
the number of persons aged 60 and over between 1995 and 2025. This
increase represents more than half (52 per cent) of the addition to the
country's total population during the 30-year period. Similarly, the
increment to India's elderly population in the same period is estimated
to be about 106 million, over two-ninths (23 per cent) of the increase in
the country's total population between 1995 and 2025.
The relative increases of the population 60+ in the coming decades
as presented in table 4, manifest an accelerating trend, peaking during
the period 2010-2030 and falling rapidly thereafter. During the twenty-
year period, 1990-2010, Asia's senior citizens are projected to grow by
70 per cent, doubling in the next twenty years before plummeting
down to about 50 per cent. Oceania's increase is more moderate -
about 50 per cent in the period 1990-2010, advancing to 66 per cent
during 2010-2030, and subsiding to 28 per cent in 2030-2050.
Notable deviations from this trend are Japan where growth is
projected to stall and even turn negative after 2010-2030; Hong Kong's
increase is expected to become negative during the period 2030-2050,
while Singapore is anticipated to evince a status quo during the same
period. Other slow growers are the Republic of Korea, Australia and
New Zealand.
Worth noting too are the lower percentage increases reported for
women 60+ as compared to men 60+ in Eastern Asia and in Australia-
New Zealand during the period 1990-2010. Nowhere else in the two
regions under review is a similar pattern evident.
3.2 The oldest-old
The most common way to look at population ageing is to consider
changes in the proportions of the elderly as just discussed. Another is
to examine the relative growth of age groups over time. The age
composition of the elderly population is being altered because of the
tendency of the older age groups within the elderly population to
expand more rapidly. Countries which have undergone a rapid fertility
transition in the recent past are ageing the fastest compared to those
nations where the transition proceeded at a more moderate pace.
The ageing process currently observed and projected for developed
countries (and for developing countries in the coming century) is
characterized by a disproportionate growth of the very old and of
widows due to higher male mortality. Important age differentials are
uncovered when the population 60 years and older is divided into three
groups, those aged 60-69 years, those 70-79 and those 80 years and
older. In 1950, persons in the 'young-old' category (60-69 years of age)
numbered 65 million in Asia and Oceania, comprising 68 per cent of
their total elderly population. Forty-five years later, this group is
estimated to exceed 175 million and is projected to swell to 615 million
in 2050. For the 'oldest-olds' (80 years and older), the increase will be
much faster. The population of this group which was 4.5 million (5 per
cent of all elderly) in 1950, is estimated to be close to 25 million in
mid-1995 and is anticipated to reach 192 million (16 per cent of the
population 60+) by the year 2050. By 2050, the 'young-olds' will only
account for one half of the total elderly population, a decline of 18
percentage points in a century.
The large increase in the 'oldest-old' is evident in both developed
and developing regions, and among women and men. Of the total
population 80 years and older in 1950, 38 per cent came from the
developing world. By 1995, this proportion rose to 44 per cent; in
2050, it is expected to approach 72 per cent. The parallel proportions
for Asia and Oceania were 33 per cent in 1950, 40 per cent in 1995
and 58 per cent in 2050. Of the world's women 80 years and older in
1950, 36 per cent came from the less developed regions; a proportion
which grew to 40 per cent in 1995. Fifty-five years thereafter, the
figure is foreseen to reach 70 per cent. The corresponding fractions for
Asia and Oceania are 32, 37 and 57 per cent. These figures
demonstrate that Latin America and Africa will be catching up with
their Asian and Pacific counterparts by the 21st century. Notable is the
fact that the proportions of the very old women are almost identical to
those for the total population.
Table 5 discloses that for the most part, in the subregions of Asia
and Oceania, the percentage increases for women 80 years and older,
for certain subregions during the next two decades, exceeded those for
men for the periods, 1950-1970 and 1970-1990. From then on, the
reverse will take place with the exception of South-Central and
Southeastern Asia and the small island countries of the Pacific. By
2030-2050, the proportional increases among those who are at least
80 years of age will be smallest for women and men in Australia and
New Zealand.
3.3 Population 70+ compared to those 60-69
Still another way of indicating the fast growth of the older age
groups is to express the population 70+ relative to those aged 60-69
as listed in table 6. For Asia as a whole in 1970, the numbers of women
and men in their 70s or older were over half those in their 60s. By
1995, the ratio had risen to 62 per cent. Thirty years hence, it is
anticipated to reach 70 per cent. By the mid-21st century, the
population 70+ is foreseen to almost equal that of the 60-69 year-olds.
Oceania's ratios were much higher - 74 per cent in 1970, 97 per cent in
1995, dropping to 94 in 2025, but reaching a high of 130 per cent in
2050.
7. Summary