Email: bhushan.gajaria@idfc.com
(Dir) +91-22-6622 2562
Bhushan Gajaria
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•• Overall
Overalldomestic
domesticindustry
industrygrowth
growthimproves
improves(18.7%
(18.7%growth
growthininJan)
Jan)as
aspassenger
passengercars
carscontinue
continue
totogrow
growatatover
over20%
20%and
andgrowth
growthimproves
improvesininmotorcycle
motorcyclesegment
segment(15%(15%ininJan)
Jan)
•• OnOnaam-o-m
m-o-mbasis,
basis,volumes
volumesare
areup
upby
by3.6%,
3.6%,with
withMHCV
MHCVvolumes
volumeshigher
higherby
by12.7%
12.7%
•• Commercial
CommercialVehicle
Vehiclegrowth
growthremains
remainssubdued
subduedasaspassenger
passengervehicles
vehiclesdecline
declinebyby~20%
~20%
•• MHCV
MHCVGoods
Goodscarriers
carriersgrow
growby
by18%,
18%,while
whileLCV
LCVgoods
goodsgrow
growbyby13.5%
13.5%
•• Every
Everysegment,
segment,barring
barringscooters
scootersand
and3-Wheelers,
3-Wheelers,respective
respectivecategory
categoryleader
leaderloses
losesshare
share––
Marutiloses
Maruti losesthe
theleast
leastininPassenger
PassengerCars;
Cars;Tata
TataMotors
Motorsloses
losesthe
themost
mostininCommercial
CommercialVehicles
Vehicles
2
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New launches
• Maruti launches the diesel version of SX4
• Bajaj Auto launches Discover 100cc
• General Motors launches LPG version of Chevrolet Beat
International news
• UK new car registration drops by 7.7% in Feb 11 as against 11.5% in Jan 2011. However, JLR
sales down 18%
• US Light Vehicle market volumes up by 27%. JLR volumes up by 16% to 3247 units
• Passenger car growth in China slows down materially to 2.57% in Feb 2011
• Ssangyong reports 44% growth in volumes to 6,772 units
3
Motorcycles – Volumes grow 4.2% over Jan 11
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•• Gainers
Gainers––Bajaj
BajajAuto
Auto(70bp
(70bpm-o-m),
m-o-m),
1,000,000 50
750,000
40
HondaMotors
Honda Motors(50bp)
(50bp)
30
500,000
20
•• Losers
Losers––Hero
HeroHonda
Honda(120bp)
(120bp)
250,000
10 •• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autoreturns
returnstotomonthly
monthlyvolume
volumeofof
0 0
200,000+after
200,000+ after33months
months
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
4
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•• TVS
TVSMotors
Motorsgains
gains40bp
40bp––likely
likely 525,000 30
improvement
improvementininJive
Jivevolumes
volumes
•• Yamaha
Yamaha––second
secondconsecutive
consecutivemonth
monthofof
350,000 20
decline;
decline;volumes
volumesdown
down15%yoy
15%yoy
175,000 10
•• Competition
Competitionincreasing
increasing––Honda
Hondaand and 0
May-10
0
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
Suzuki
Suzukitotolaunch
launch100cc
100ccbikes
bikesininnext
next11yryr
5
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•• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autostrengthens
strengthensits
itsleadership
leadership––
187,500 60
gains60bp
gains 60bpm-o-m
m-o-m
125,000 40
62,500 20 •• Honda
HondaMotors
Motorsgains
gains90bp,
90bp,while
whileTVS
TVS
0 0
Motorsloses
Motors loses70bp
70bp
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
6
Passenger Cars – Toyota clocks 2% share
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Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
7
Passenger Cars – Compact cars (A2)
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•• Volkswagen
Volkswagenand
andNissan
Nissangains
gains20bp
20bpeach
each
40,000 20
toto2.5%
2.5%and
and1.5%
1.5%respectively
respectively 0 Jun-10 10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
8 Aug-10
Passenger Cars – Mid-sized cars (A3)
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•• Maruti
Marutiregains
regainsincremental
incremental130bp
130bp
•• Volkswagen
Volkswageninching
inchingback
backtoto~10%
~10%mark
mark
30,000 45
•• Toyota
ToyotaEtios
Etiossells
sells2786
2786units
units(7.5%)
(7.5%)
20,000 30
•• Honda
Hondaand
andHyiundai
Hyiundailose
losethe
themost
most––
10,000 15
0 0 440bpand
440bp and240bp
240bprespectively
respectively
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
9
Utility Vehicles – Premium SUVs gain
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Growth moderates
Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
32,000 60
•• M&M
M&Mlost
lost200bp
200bpand
andToyota
Toyotalost
lost100bp
100bp
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgained
gained220bp
220bpand
andGMGM
24,000 45
16,000 30 gained30bp
gained 30bp
8,000 15
•• BMW
BMWmakes
makessmart
smartgains
gains––up
up40bp
40bptoto
0 0
0.5%
0.5%
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
10
MHCV – impact of decline in passenger vehicles
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•• Passenger
Passengercarriers
carriersdecline
declineby
by23%,
23%, 32,000
Volumes (LHS) % Grow th (RHS)
80
goods
goods carriers growth improvestoto18%
carriers growth improves 18% 24,000 60
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsloses
loses250bp
250bpininpassenger
passenger
segment
segmentand
and240bp
240bpiningoods
goods
16,000 40
•• Ashok
AshokLeyland
Leylandgains
gains500bp
500bpiningoods
goods
8,000 20
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
11
MHCV – Goods carriers
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•• Share
Shareofof25tn+
25tn+touches
touches30%30% - -up
up240bp
240bpm-o-m
m-o-m
•• Ashok
AshokLeyland
Leylandgains
gains510bp
510bptoto26.4%
26.4%atatthe
thecost
costofofTata
TataMotors
Motors(340bp
(340bptoto58.5%)
58.5%)and
andEicher
Eicher
(180bptoto9.8%)
(180bp 9.8%)
•• Mahindra
Mahindrasells
sells180
180units
unitstotoretain
retainits
its0.7%
0.7%market
marketshare
share
21,000 60 75%
14,000 40
50%
7,000 20
25%
0 0
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 YTDFY11
12
LCV – Passenger declines, goods slows down
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•• Passenger
Passengercarriers
carriersdecline
declineby
by21%
21%asas
36,000 45
28,800 36 marketleader
market leader––Tata
TataMotors
Motorswitnesses
witnesses
21,600 27 40%decline
40% decline
•• Goods
Goodscarriers
carriersgrowth
growthslows
slowsdown
downtoto
14,400 18
7,200 9 13.5%
13.5%
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgrows
growsby
by21.5%
21.5%
0 0
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
13
LCV – Goods carriers
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•• Share
Shareofof<3.5tonnes
<3.5tonnesfurther
furtherup
upbyby60bp
60bptoto86.2%
86.2%
•• M&M
M&Mgives
givesaway
awaythe
thegains
gainsofofJan
Jan2011
2011––market
marketshare
shareback
backtoto33%
33%
•• Tata
TataMotors
Motorsgains
gains90bp
90bptoto59.5%
59.5%as
asititgains
gains200bp
200bpininthethefastest
fastestgrowing
growingsegment
segment
•• Slowdown
Slowdowniningoods
goodsvehicle
vehiclesegment
segment––isisthe
thetier
tierIIIImarket
marketslowing
slowingdown?
down?
28,000 40
75%
21,000 30
14,000 20 50%
7,000 10
25%
0 0
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
0%
FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 YTD FY11E
14
3-Wheelers – Passenger carriers grow by 31%
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•• Passenger
Passengervehicle
vehiclemarket
marketconsolidates
consolidates
35,000 45
28,000 36 further
further
•• Bajaj
BajajAuto
Autogains
gains130bp
130bptoto47.4%,
47.4%,
21,000 27
14,000 18 Piaggiogains
Piaggio gains60bp
60bptoto33.1%
33.1%
•• M&M
M&Mloses
loses150bp
150bpininpassenger
passengerand
and
7,000 9
0 0
60bpiningoods
60bp goodssegment
segment
Jun-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Sep-10
Aug-10
15
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Adj. RFI (mom %)
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Freight rates adjusted for diesel price
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Adj. RFI (yoy %)
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
May-07
Feb-07
Nov-06
Aug-06
May-06
Feb-06
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
% Change in RF
ISIEmergingMarketsPDF sg-smu from 202.161.41.65 on 2011-03-18 07:38:14 EDT. DownloadPDF.
180
170
160
150
140
Feb-11
Freight Rate Index
Aug-10
RFI (RHS)
Feb-10
Aug-09
Freight rate movement v/s diesel price
Feb-09
Aug-08
Adj. RFI (LHS)
Feb-08
Aug-07
Feb-07
Aug-06
Feb-06
60
55
50
45
40
16
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Thank you
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