In cooperation with
Americans Less Anxious About U.S.
Foreign Policy than in Past Four Years
But Republicans Have Grown Much More The Anxiety Indicator is measured on a 200- View Report Online
point scale, with 100 serving as a neutral http://www.publicagenda.
Anxious; Democrats and Independents
midpoint, neither anxious nor confident. A org/pages/foreign-policy-
Much Less So index-2010
score of 50 or below would indicate a period
The American public is less anxious about of complacency. Above the “redline” of 150
Previous Editions of
foreign policy than it’s been for four years, would be anxiety shading into real fear and a
the Foreign Policy Index
partly because they believe our global withdrawal of public confidence in U.S. policy.
http://www.publicagenda.
image has improved, and partly because org/reports/foreign-policy-
“Two years ago, Iraq was seen as the
the troubled economy and other domestic index-2010
‘number one’ problem facing the nation in
concerns are pushing foreign policy
its dealings with the rest of the world,” said
worries aside, according to Public Agenda’s
Daniel Yankelovich, the noted social sci-
Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index.
entist and Public Agenda’s chairman. “Now,
The Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator stands neither Iraq nor Afghanistan is cited as one
at 122, a 10-point drop since 2008 and the of the five most important foreign policy
lowest level since Public Agenda introduced problems we face. But most Americans
this measure in 2006. The Confidence in still see the world as a treacherous, often
Foreign Policy Index, produced by Public hostile place, and that concern certainly
Agenda in collaboration with Foreign Affairs, hasn’t gone away.”
uses a set of tracking questions to measure
Americans’ comfort level with the nation’s
foreign policy, much the same way the
Consumer Confidence Index measures the
public’s satisfaction with the economy.
Anxiety over U.S. foreign policy has declined to its lowest level.
200 Overwhelming Majority Anxious
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00
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20
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Republican Anxiety Grows, While Worries In a Dangerous, Unfriendly World, Fewer Say
Subside for Democrats, Independents Foreign Relations Are On the Wrong Track
There are striking differences by party, The Anxiety Indicator score is a composite
however, with anxiety about foreign affairs reading based on five questions that Public
skyrocketing among Republicans, even as Agenda developed to explore the emotional
Democrats and independents report their terrain of how Americans view the world.
worries are declining. When the Anxiety The five questions themselves provide an
Indicator is calculated by party, Republican intriguing look at the public’s concerns:
worries have soared from a relatively low
level of 108 in 2008 to 134 today. By con- • The single largest change is in the number
trast, Democratic anxiety—which was 142 of Americans who say U.S. relations with
in 2008—has now fallen to relatively calm the rest of the world are “off on the wrong
104. Independents were at 140 in 2008 track,” which dropped 15 points in two
and are still fairly anxious at 128, but that’s years. Still, half of the public (50 percent)
a notable decline. say that relations with the rest of the
world are “off on the wrong track,” while
39 percent say things are moving in the
right direction. At the same time, fewer
people say they worry “a lot” about the
way things are going for the United States
in world affairs, down 12 points from 39
percent in 2008 to 27 percent today.
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• And Americans are feeling better about The most dramatic example of the par-
our world image. While a majority of tisan divide shows up in answer to the
Americans (56 percent) still say that the question about whether the country is
world sees the United States in a negative moving in the right direction or on the
light, this is a significant improvement wrong track in foreign affairs. In 2008, only
from 2008, when nearly two-thirds of 20 percent of Democrats said the country
Americans (63 percent) held this view. was going in the right direction, compared
with 45 percent of Republicans. Now the
• Americans still see the world as a dan- Democrats’ view has shifted a staggering
gerous place for the United States and its 41 points, to 61 percent who think the
interests. The number who say the world is country is going in the right direction, while
becoming “more dangerous for the United Republicans’ rating has dropped to only
States and the American people” is virtually one-quarter (26 percent). Independents
the same as it was it was two years ago: 72 are far less enthusiastic than Democrats
percent, compared with 73 percent in 2008. are, but their “right direction” number has
doubled from 16 percent to 32 percent.
• Only 30 percent give the United States
“excellent” or “good” ratings “as a leader Afghanistan is more clearly tied to the
in creating a more peaceful and pros- threat of terrorism than Iraq was. Some 40
perous world.” Again, that’s essentially percent say, “America’s safety from terrorism
unchanged from two years ago. depends on our success in Afghanistan.”
That’s somewhat higher than we found when
we asked a similar question about Iraq in
2008, when only 34 percent said our safety
from terrorism depended on success there.
Thinking about recent U.S. relations with the rest of the world, would you say
things are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?
100%
— Right Direction — Wrong Track
80
67% 65% 65%
59% 58%
60
50%
40 39%
37% 26% 28% 25%
35%
20
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6
0
6
7
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00
00
01
00
00
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Wi
The questions in the Foreign Policy Index Domestic Issues Trump Everything
were fielded between March 18 and March
21, 2010. The survey was in the field right Multiple surveys from many organizations
after Congress passed a jobs bill and during show that the economy is the public’s
the final debate and passage of a health biggest concern by wide margins, and that
care bill by the House of Representatives. certainly had an impact on the Anxiety
During this period, there was also coverage Indicator. When asked about “the most
of continued drug violence in Mexico and important problem facing the US in its
tensions between Israel and the United dealings with the rest of the world,” 1 in 4
States. But this was well before the nuclear (26 percent) either volunteered answers that
arms agreement made between the United had to do with the United States economy
States and Russia and the uprising in or domestic issues rather than international
Kyrgyzstan. Other surveys show news about ones, including 10 percent who explicitly
health care was by far the most closely fol- stated that the United States should focus
lowed by the public that week. more on domestic matters, less on interna-
tional ones. Iraq, which was the prime issue
“Generally speaking, Americans don’t in 2006 and cited by 22 percent, is now
know as much about foreign policy as they mentioned by only 5 percent. Foreign policy
do about domestic problems, and they’re is simply less pressing to much of the public
usually willing to leave the nuts and bolts than it was three or four years ago.
to the experts—unless they feel things are
seriously off track,” said Scott Bittle, Public
Agenda’s director of public issue analysis.
“The Foreign Policy Index was designed
to give political leaders an important tool
by providing an overall sense of public’s
‘comfort level,’ rather than flash responses
to specific crises.”
200
How do you think the rest of the world sees How good a job is the United States doing these
the United States? Positively or negatively? days in creating a more peaceful and prosperous
world? Excellent, good, only fair or poor? Overwhelming
ANXIETY
majority anxious
100% 100%
80 80
67%
60 56% 60
33% Somewhat 42% Fair
40 28% 40 30%
20 21% Somewhat 20 25% Good 150
7% Very 23% Very 5% Excellent 25% Poor Significant
0 0
Positively Negatively Excellent / Good Job Fair / Poor Job majority anxious
Spring 2010
Thinking about recent U.S. relations with the Is “the way things are going for the United 122
rest of the world, would you say things are States in world affairs” something that you
heading in the right direction, or are they off on worry about? Do you worry a lot, somewhat or
the wrong track? do you not worry.
Neither Anxious
100% 100%
nor Confident 100
80 80
60 60
50% 46%
40 39% 40
27% 24%
20 20 Significant
0 0 majority confident
Right Direction Wrong Track Worry a Lot Worry Somewhat Do Not Worry
The Anxiety Indicator is designed to provide Thinking about current U.S. relations with the
a measure of Americans’ comfort level rest of the world, would you say that the world CONFIDENCE
with the nation’s foreign policy, much the
is becoming safer or more dangerous for the
same way the Consumer Confidence Index
measures the public’s satisfaction with United States and the American people?
the economy. Our indicator scale is divided
100%
into zones, with 100 serving as a neutral Overwhelming
midpoint. We don’t anticipate the indicator 80 majority confident
72%
ever being at either the 0 or the 200 level,
but a score of 50 or below would indicate a 60
33% Somewhat
period of calm, perhaps even complacency.
40
Above the “redline” of 150 would be anxiety
shading into real fear and a withdrawal of 19% 0
20
public confidence in U.S. policy. 15% Somewhat
4% Much 39% Much
0
Note: Question wording in charts might be edited for space. Safer More Dangerous
Percentages may not equal 100 percent due to rounding
or the omission of some answer choices.
These numbers are calculated The index question components are then
in the following way: averaged to calculate the index.
1. If the question assumes either one pos- When the index level is more than 100, the
itive or one negative response (right track number giving a negative response is more
or wrong direction, yes or no), the following than the number giving a positive response.
formula is used to calculate this question When all answers are strongly positive, the
index component: index is 0. When all answers are strongly
negative, the index is 200.
K = 100 +(p(-) - p(+))
Where p(+) is the percent that answered positively,
p(-) is the percent that answered negatively.
The authors of the “Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy Index, Volume 7, Spring 2010,” would like to
thank the following people for their support and assistance during the preparation of this report:
Dan Yankelovich, Barbara Lee, Robert Shapiro, Richard Haass, Bob Inman, Richard Danzig,
John Doble, Ramon Daubon, Nancy Roman, Michele A. Flournoy, Allan Rosenfield, David Frum,
and Nancy Soderberg for their help in the original conception of this project;
Sanura Weathers, for designing this clear, attractive presentation of the research;
And Public Agenda President Ruth A. Wooden, for her vision, insight and guidance.