Monthly Update | December 2010

January 4, 2011 Vaishali Jajoo

+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 344 vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com

Auto Sector
Momentum continues
Automakers reported strong sales performance in December 2010 despite it traditionally being a sluggish month. After witnessing slightly lower growth in November 2010, volumes regained momentum owing to attractive year-end discounts and advanced purchases in anticipation of price hikes in January 2011. While Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) and Hero Honda (HH) reported better-thanexpected sales volume during the month, Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported marginally below expectations performance. Overall, sales maintained the strong momentum during the month albeit at a slower pace, largely aided by healthy economic growth, positive consumer sentiment and easy financing. Tata Motors (TML) reported a healthy 30.6% yoy growth in total volumes in December 2010, in line with our estimates and led by the 27.9% yoy growth in domestic vehicle sales and 68.2% yoy growth in export sales. The PV segment, which was impacted by the decline in Nano and Indica sales in November 2010, posted 34.5% yoy growth in December 2010 to 20,502 units (15,239). Nano volumes rose 60% yoy to 5,784 units, as the company more than doubled the warranty period and offered easier financing terms to boost sales. The commercial vehicles (CV) segment posted 29% yoy growth during the month on account of the 39.6% yoy growth in LCV sales and 16.4% yoy growth in M&HCV sales. The Ace clutch recorded the highest-ever sales during the month. Maruti Suzuki (Maruti) registered a 17% yoy growth in volumes to 99,225 units (84,804) led by the 26% yoy jump in domestic volumes to 89,469 units (71,000). Exports during the month fell 29.3% yoy to 9,756 units (13,804). Maruti maintained its growth momentum in the A2, A3 and C segments, posting 23.5%, 19.4% and 67.5% yoy growth respectively, in December 2010. Overall, volume growth during the month was restricted on account of the six-day plant shut down for maintenance purposes. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) reported a robust 38.3% yoy growth in total sales which came in marginally ahead of our estimates. Growth was aided by 41.9% and 31.3% yoy growth in the automotive and farm equipment segments, respectively. Within the automotive segment, the four-wheeler pick-up segment grew by a strong 46.6% yoy on the back of robust performance by the GIO and Maxximo. Passenger UV sales grew by a healthy 23.5% yoy, while Logan sales continued its strong performance, spiking 190.9% yoy. The farm equipment segments growth was supported by healthy performance on the domestic (up 31.4% yoy) as well as exports fronts (up 30% yoy). Two and three-wheelers: Bajaj Auto (BAL) reported a marginally lower-thanexpected growth in sales at 9.8% yoy, with motorcycle sales moving up 10.8% yoy and three-wheeler sales posting 4.9% yoy growth. Hero Honda (HH) registered a better-than-expected 33.3% yoy growth in sales volume, selling 501,111 units (375,838) led by a refreshed product range and new launches. TVS Motor (TVS) reported a strong 42.1% yoy growth in sales, which was in line with our estimates and led by the 93.8% yoy growth in scooter sales and 34.1% yoy growth in mopeds sales.
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

Yaresh Kothari
+91 22 4040 3800 Ext: 313 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com

Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Tata Motors
TMLs volumes grew 30.6% yoy; Nano volumes up 60% yoy, M&HCV and LCV posted highest-ever sales TML reported a robust 30.6% yoy growth in sales to 67,441 units (51,627) led by a strong performance in the CV and PV segment. The CV segment recorded a strong 29% yoy growth, in line with our estimates, aided by the M&HCV and LCV segments, which posted their highest ever sales growing by 16.4% and 39.6% yoy, respectively. The PV segment rebounded strongly with a 34.5% yoy growth as Nano volumes revived during the month registering 60% yoy growth to 5,784 units (509 in November 2010). Nano volumes benefitted with the company more than doubled the warranty period and offered easier financing terms to the customers. The Indigo and Indica range of cars reported 2.5% and 40.1% yoy growth respectively, during the month. The company has announced price increases in some of its passenger vehicles and all commercial vehicles due to the rise in input costs.

Exhibit 1: Tata Motors - Sales trend

December Segment Total Sales M&HCV LCV Total Commercial Vehicles Utility Vehicles Cars Total Passenger Vehicles Export (Included above) Source: Company, Angel Research 2010 67,441 19,400 27,539 46,939 2,876 17,626 20,502 5,809 2009 51,627 16,664 19,724 36,388 1,807 13,432 15,239 3,454 % chg 30.6 16.4 39.6 29.0 59.2 31.2 34.5 68.2 FY2011 566,936 149,616 201,786 351,402 29,019 186,515 215,534 42,660 YTD FY2010 432,629 110,416 163,648 274,064 22,518 136,047 158,565 23,522 % chg 31.0 35.5 23.3 28.2 28.9 37.1 35.9 81.4

Exhibit 2: CV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 200 150 100 50 0 (50) (100)

Oct-09

Feb-09

Feb-10

Dec-08

Dec-09

Oct-10

Jun-09

Jun-10

Aug-09

Source: Company, Angel Research

January 4, 2011

Aug-10

Dec-10

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Exhibit 3: PV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Maruti Suzuki
Maruti reported 17% yoy growth; domestic sales remain robust, planned maintenance shut down restricted growth Maruti registered a 17% yoy growth in volumes to 99,225 units (84,804) as plant shut down (6 days) due to maintenance restricted the volume growth. The company registered a 26% yoy increase in domestic sales volume, while exports continued to witness negative growth and fell 29.3% yoy. The A2 segment grew 23.5% yoy, while sales of the C segment increased by a substantial 67.5% yoy on the back of encouraging numbers from Eeco. The A3 segment posted 19.4% yoy growth. B segment sales registered a marginal 4.2% yoy growth.

Exhibit 4: Maruti Suzuki - Sales trend

December Segment Total Sales A1 M800 C Omni, Versa, Eeco A2 Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A-Star, Ritz A3 SX4, D-zire Total Domestic Passenger Cars B: MUVs Gypsy, Grand Vitara Total Domestic Passenger Vehicles Exports Source: Company, Angel Research 2010 1,798 13,547 9,362 270 2009 2,574 8,088 7,843 259 % chg 17.0 (30.1) 67.5 23.5 19.4 26.1 4.2 26.0 (29.3) FY2011 18,982 118,729 92,418 4,698 99,225 84,804 YTD FY2010 % chg 26.9 72.4 27.4 32.8 31.0 65.7 31.2 1.7 24,594 (22.8) 68,859 69,613 2,835 927,665 730,943

64,492 52,236 89,199 70,741 89,469 71,000 9,756 13,804

585,523 459,507 815,652 622,573 820,350 625,408 107,315 105,535

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Dec-10

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Exhibit 5: PV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Mahindra & Mahindra

M&M reported marginally better than expected growth, automotive sales increased 41.9% yoy, while tractor sales grew 31.3% yoy M&M posted marginally better than expected monthly sales growth of 38.3% yoy to 50,396 units (36,440). The tractor segment grew by a strong 31.3% yoy, with domestic tractor sales up by 31.4% yoy. Tractor exports registered 30% yoy growth. The tractor sales are benefitting from the easing supply constraints. The automotive segment grew by a robust 41.9% yoy on account of strong sales performance by the Logan, four-wheeler pick-up and three-wheeler segments. Logan continues to witness strong growth momentum and registered 190.9% yoy growth albeit on a low base. The four-wheeler pick-up segment grew by a healthy 46.6%. M&M is considering an increase in prices of its vehicles by ~1% across all products to battle rising raw material costs, especially steel and rubber.

Exhibit 6: Mahindra & Mahindra - Sales trend

December Segment Total Sales Passenger Utility Vehicles Four-wheel pick up (GIO + Maxximo) LCV Logan Three-wheelers Exports Total Automotive Sales Domestic Tractor Sales Exports Tractor Sales Total Tractor Sales Source: Company, Angel Research 2010 50,396 14,705 10,161 856 896 5,928 1,516 34,062 15,135 1,199 16,334 2009 36,440 11,904 6,933 700 % chg 38.3 23.5 46.6 22.3 FY2011 YTD FY2010 % chg 26.0 12.2 51.0 15.1 72.8 39.4 83.7 29.2 19.7 42.8 20.8 423,710 336,209 122,527 109,212 73,972 8,275 6,720 44,471 13,480 49,002 7,188 3,889 31,910 7,338

308 190.9 2,909 103.8 1,247 24,001 11,517 922 12,439 21.6 41.9 31.4 30.0 31.3

269,445 208,539 145,493 121,528 8,772 6,142 154,265 127,670

January 4, 2011

Dec-10

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Exhibit 7: UV segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40)

Oct-09

Feb-09

Feb-10

Dec-08

Dec-09

Oct-10

Jun-09

Jun-10

Aug-09

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: UV + Four-wheel pick up combined from Sep 2010

Exhibit 8: Tractor segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 50 0 (50) Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 200 150 100

Oct-09

Aug-10

Feb-09

Dec-08

Dec-09

Feb-10

Oct-10

Aug-09

Source: Company, Angel Research

Bajaj Auto
BAL reports marginally lower-thanexpected numbers, volumes down 8.1% mom Bajaj Auto reported marginally lower-than-expected overall sales growth of 9.8% yoy to 276,803 units (252,004) for the month. The motorcycle segment posted a modest 10.8% yoy growth, though on a mom basis, volumes fell by 8.1%. Pulsar and Discover accounted for 70% of the motorcycle sales during December 2010. The three-wheeler segment recorded a 4.9% yoy growth to 33,128 units (31,575). On a mom basis, sales fell 3.1%. Exports registered a growth of 4.4%, however, it continues to see logistical constraints which are impacting growth. Going forward, management expects the monthly run rate to touch 300,000 units. BAL has raised prices of its products by up to `1,000 with effect from January 1, 2011 to mitigate the rising input costs.
January 4, 2011

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Exhibit 9: Bajaj Auto - Sales trend

December Segment Total Sales Motorcycles Scooters Total 2-Wheelers Three-Wheelers Export (included above) 2010 276,803 243,675 243,675 33,128 95,388 2009 252,004 219,920 509 220,429 31,575 91,369 % chg 9.8 10.8 10.5 4.9 4.4 FY2011 2,875,734 2,550,350 27 2,550,377 325,357 927,875 YTD FY2010 2,043,703 1,794,455 4,593 1,799,048 244,655 676,627 % chg 40.7 42.1 (99.4) 41.8 33.0 37.1

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 10: Motorcycle segment- Monthly sales trend

(units) 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20) (40) (60)

Oct-09

Feb-09

Feb-10

Dec-08

Dec-09

Oct-10

Jun-09

Jun-10

Aug-09

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 11: Three-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) % yoy growth (RHS) (%) 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-10

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

January 4, 2011

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Hero Honda
HH volumes increased by a robust 33.3% yoy and 18.9% mom HH sold 501,111 units (375,838) during the month, registering a better-thanexpected growth of 33.3% yoy. On a mom basis, volumes were up 18.9%. Refreshed product ranges, new product launches and innovative branding and marketing initiatives continue to drive the companys performance on the volume front. New Super Splendor and Splendor Pro launched in September 2010 also helped the company in posting better volumes. The company has increased prices by `500-1,500 in the domestic market for its various models to counter the input cost pressures.

Exhibit 12: Hero Honda - Sales trend

December 2010 Total Sales Source: Company, Angel Research 2009 % chg FY2011 501,111 375,838 YTD FY2010 % chg 15.7 33.3 3,948,013 3,413,594

Exhibit 13: Two-wheeler segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Volume(LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

TVS Motor
TVS Motor reported strong 42.1% yoy growth, Scooter and three-wheeler segment registered impressive growth TVS Motor reported a strong 42.1% yoy growth in volumes to 171,859 units (120,913) led by the substantial increase in domestic sales. Domestic sales grew by a robust 47.4% yoy to 152,857 units (103,691), while exports reported a 10.3% yoy growth. The scooter segment recorded an impressive 93.8% yoy growth to 41,804 units (21,566). The motorcycle segment grew 23.9% yoy to 61,404 units (49,560). Three-wheeler sales continue to see strong momentum, and registered a robust 188.8% yoy growth in sales to 3,500 units (1,212).

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Exhibit 14: TVS Motor - Sales trend

December Segment / Model Total Sales Motorcycles Scooters Mopeds Total 2-Wheelers Export (Included above) Three-Wheelers Source: Company, Angel Research 2010 61,404 41,804 65,151 19,002 3,500 2009 49,560 21,566 48,575 17,222 1,212 % chg 23.9 93.8 34.1 10.3 188.8 FY2011 617,996 342,538 524,562 163,898 27,863 171,859 120,913 YTD FY2010 458,726 228,471 421,947 110,132 8,593 % chg 35.4 34.7 49.9 24.3 33.9 48.8 224.3 42.1 1,512,959 1,117,737

168,359 119,701

40.6 1,485,096 1,109,144

Exhibit 15: Scooter segment - Monthly sales trend

(units) 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 100 80 60 40 20 0 (20)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 16: Motorcycle segment- Monthly sales trend

(units) 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS) (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 (10) (20) (30)

Dec-08

Dec-09

Aug-09

Aug-10

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Outlook
We remain positive on the Indian auto sector. Overall, we estimate auto volumes to register ~13% CAGR over FY201012, aided by the improved business environment for the sector. Over the long term, comparatively low penetration levels, a healthy economic environment and favourable demographics supported by higher per-capita income levels are likely to help the auto companies in sustaining their top-line growth. However, increased input costs and interest rates are the anticipated headwinds that could affect the sectors volume and earnings growth. We expect rising input costs to restrict profitability, despite having a positive view on demand. We prefer stocks where strong and improving fundamentals could deliver positive earnings surprises. We continue to prefer companies in the four-wheeler space over the two-wheelers considering reasonable valuations and volume growth visibility.

Exhibit 17: Relative valuation and recommendation

Companies Reco. CMP (`) TP (`) Sales (`cr) FY11E P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) EV/EBITDA (x) FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY10-12E EPS CAGR (%)

Ashok Leyland Accumulate Bajaj Auto Hero Honda Maruti M&M Tata Motors TVS Motor Accumulate Neutral Buy Accumulate Accumulate Accumulate

67 1,975 780 72

73 827 76

9,794 16,593 17,919 35,081 22,196 6,197

11,492 19,281 19,806 41,308 25,858 7,011

16.5 16.3 19.6 17.2 18.8 9.9 16.1

13.0 14.4 17.9 13.8 16.5 8.1 12.2

3.5 11.8 9.7 2.8 4.8 5.6 3.8

3.1 8.9 8.5 2.4 4.0 3.5 3.5

14.3 78.9 53.4 18.0 25.7 70.8 23.9

16.9 70.8 50.6 16.6 24.7 53.1 29.4

10.7 10.5 14.8 9.6 12.5 6.8 9.2

9.2 9.2 13.2 7.2 10.5 5.3 7.0

34.3 30.0 3.0 11.2 16.4 197.7 58.1

1,431 1,592 1,429 1,654

1,301 1,458 113,777 129,612

Source: Company, C-line, Angel Research; Note: Price as of January 4, 2010

January 4, 2011

Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800

E-mail: research@angeltrade.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement

Analyst ownership of the stock Ashok Leyland Tata Motors Maruti Suzuki Mahindra & Mahindra Bajaj Auto Hero Honda TVS Motor No Yes Yes Yes No No No Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No No No No No No No Broking relationship with company covered No No No No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

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Auto Sector Update | December 2010

Address: Acme Plaza, A Wing, 3rd Floor, M.V. Road, Opp. Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059. Tel: (022) 3952 4568 / 4040 3800
Research Team Fundamental: Sarabjit Kour Nangra Vaibhav Agrawal Vaishali Jajoo Shailesh Kanani Rupesh Sankhe Param Desai Sageraj Bariya Paresh Jain John Perinchery Srishti Anand Vinay Nair Jai Sharda Sharan Lillaney Naitik Mody Amit Vora V Srinivasan Mihir Salot Chitrangda Kapur Pooja Jain Yaresh Kothari Shrinivas Bhutda Sreekanth P.V.S Hemang Thaker Nitin Arora Ankita Somani Varun Varma Vasant Lohiya Technicals: Shardul Kulkarni Mileen Vasudeo Derivatives: Siddarth Bhamre Jaya Agarwal Institutional Sales Team: Mayuresh Joshi Abhimanyu Sofat Pranav Modi Ganesh Iyer Jay Harsora Meenakshi Chavan Gaurang Tisani Production Team: Bharathi Shetty Simran Kaur Bharat Patil Dilip Patel Research Editor Research Editor Production Production bharathi.shetty@angelbroking.com simran.kaur@angelbroking.com bharat.patil@angelbroking.com dilipm.patel@angelbroking.com VP - Institutional Sales AVP - Institutional Sales Sr. Manager Sr. Manager Sr. Dealer Dealer Dealer mayuresh.joshi@angelbroking.com abhimanyu.sofat@angelbroking.com pranavs.modi@angelbroking.com ganeshb.Iyer@angelbroking.com jayr.harsora@angelbroking.com meenakshis.chavan@angelbroking.com gaurangp.tisani@angelbroking.com Head - Derivatives Derivative Analyst siddarth.bhamre@angelbroking.com jaya.agarwal@angelbroking.com Sr. Technical Analyst Technical Analyst shardul.kulkarni@angelbroking.com vasudeo.kamalakant@angelbroking.com VP-Research, Pharmaceutical VP-Research, Banking Automobile Infrastructure Cement, Power Real Estate, Logistics, Shipping Fertiliser, Mid-cap Metals & Mining Capital Goods IT, Telecom Oil & Gas Mid-cap Mid-cap Mid-cap Research Associate (Oil & Gas) Research Associate (Cement, Power) Research Associate (Logistics, Shipping) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (Metals & Mining) Research Associate (Automobile) Research Associate (Banking) Research Associate (FMCG, Media) Research Associate (Capital Goods) Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) Research Associate (IT, Telecom) Research Associate (Banking) Research Associate (Banking) sarabjit@angelbroking.com vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com rupeshd.sankhe@angelbroking.com paramv.desai@angelbroking.com sageraj.bariya@angelbroking.com pareshn.jain@angelbroking.com john.perinchery@angelbroking.com srishti.anand@angelbroking.com vinay.nair@angelbroking.com jai.sharda@angelbroking.com sharanb.lillaney@angelbroking.com naitiky.mody@angelbroking.com amit.vora@angelbroking.com v.srinivasan@angelbroking.com mihirr.salot@angelbroking.com chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com pooja.j@angelbroking.com yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com shrinivas.bhutda@angelbroking.com sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com nitin.arora@angelbroking.com ankita.somani@angelbroking.com varun.varma@angelbroking.com vasant.lohiya@angelbroking.com

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