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Trends in Higher Education

Volume 1 Enrolment
AUCC Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 1

Published in 2011 by: The Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada 600-350 Albert Street Ottawa, ON K1R 1B1 Phone: (613) 563-3961 ext. 205 Fax: (613) 563-9745 E-mail: publications@aucc.ca Web: www.aucc.ca Trends in Higher Education: Volume 1 Enrolment ISSN: 0847-5482 ISBN: 978-0-88876-295-X Deposited with the National Library of Canada Printed in Canada Copies may be obtained online at: www.aucc.ca or by contacting AUCC Photos in this publication have been provided by Universit du Qubec en Outaouais (cover), University of Alberta, Cape Breton University, University of Guelph, University of Northern British Columbia and Concordia University. The Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada is the voice of Canadas universities. AUCC represents 95 Canadian public and private not-for-profit universities and universitydegree level colleges. Since 1911, we have provided strong and effective representation for our members, in Canada and abroad. Our mandate is to facilitate the development of public policy on higher education and to encourage cooperation among universities and governments, industry, communities, and institutions in other countries.

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Introduction................................................................................... 5 Enrolment overview ...................................................................... 6 Undergraduate students ........................................................ 6 Graduate students................................................................. 10 Gender ................................................................................... 12 International students - the global picture ......................... 15 Aboriginal students............................................................... 19 Drivers of change ........................................................................ 23 Demographic trends ............................................................. 24 Factors affecting participation rates ................................... 27 Urban youth....................................................................... 28 Immigration and international students ......................... 29 Labour market demand .................................................... 32 Demand for graduate education ..................................... 37 The value of a university degree.......................................... 39 Private returns of a university education ........................ 39 Public returns of a university education .......................... 45 Family-based influence and income................................. 46 Tuition and student aid..................................................... 50 The capacity challenge.......................................................... 51 Enrolment growth scenarios ...................................................... 56 Scenarios ................................................................................ 57 Global growth in university participation ........................... 59 What about Canada? ............................................................ 64 List of figures ............................................................................... 66 References ................................................................................... 68

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Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 3

Enrolment

Introduction
In 2010, there were almost 1.2 million students in degree programs on Canadian campuses: 755,000 undergraduates, 143,400 graduate students studying full-time, and an additional 275,800 students studying part-time. Fifty-six percent of university students were women, and 10 percent were international students. The number of full-time university students has more than doubled since 1980, and part-time enrolment is up 16 percent. In 1980, there were 550,000 full-time and 218,000 part-time university students on Canadian campuses. Clearly, universities have experienced tremendous growth over the last 30 years. So what has driven growth in university enrolment? Demography has not been a principal driver of this change. Indeed, there were about three percent fewer youth in the key 18-to-24 age range in 2010 than in 1980. The demand for a highly skilled and educated labour force has been a principal driver in the growth of university participation rates. Since the 1970s, a profound change has been taking place in the labour market. Canada has shifted from a resource-based economy to a service-based one, resulting in a different mix of jobs available for Canadians. The fastest growing occupations are now in Canadas service sector, which grew from 6 million jobs in 1975 to more than 13 million jobs in 2010. In the last 20 years alone, there were 1.5 million new jobs for professional and management occupations in Canada, of which 1.3 million were filled by university graduates. This shift to a service sector economy has created high-paying, quality jobs. By comparison, jobs have grown at a much slower pace in many other occupations, and jobs for people who have a high school diploma or less are disappearing. The growth in university enrolment is evidence that students are responding to changes in the labour market, and that universities, in turn, are responding to students. Universities have more than
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doubled their capacity in the last 30 years, and continue to introduce new programs that meet student demand. Growing demand for university education has reinforced and increased the value of a university degree both to the individual graduate and to society in general. As the Drivers of Change section of Trends illustrates, Census data confirms that university graduates see their income increase more rapidly and consistently throughout their careers. University graduates also experience fewer and shorter periods of unemployment, volunteer more, and are more engaged in their social and political activities. University graduates pay a greater proportion of taxes, and draw less frequently on social services, enabling governments to provide more services to all Canadians. Can we expect these trends to continue? Demographic projections suggest Canada will not be able to rely on population growth to fuel our economy in the coming decade. By 2030, the population over the age of 65 will double, while the working age population (25-64 years of age) will grow by just eight percent. There will simply not be enough population growth to drive the kinds of increases in the overall size of our labour force that would be needed to support an increasingly dependent, aging population. Canadians are in for a major demographic shift. To respond to the anticipated economic, social and labour market demands resulting from this demographic shift, universities will need to both expand access to higher education for untapped segments of the population and international students, and increase the quality of education students receive. Enhancing the quality of university education by providing more interactive and engaging learning experiences is consistent with improved academic performance, knowledge acquisition and skills development. In short, a high quality learning experience produces more engaged and productive students, who, upon graduation, become Canadas future lawyers, doctors, teachers, thinkers, scientists, managers, leaders and innovators.
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Enrolment Overview
Undergraduate students
There has been tremendous growth at the undergraduate level in the last 30 years rising from 550,000 students in 1980 to 994,000 in 2010. A growing majority of undergraduate students were enrolled full-time. There were 338,000 full-time students in 1980; by 2010, the undergraduate student body had more than doubled to 755,000. By comparison, there were very different enrolment trends for part-time students. In 1980, there were 218,000 part-time undergraduates compared to 239,000 in 2010. In 1980, approximately 76 percent of undergraduate students were enrolled in full-time studies. Within this group, 62 percent were under the age of 22. One-quarter of full-time undergraduate students were between the age of 22 and 24, 11 percent were between the ages of 25 and 34, and approximately two percent were over the age of 35. Although the number of students in all age groups grew significantly from 1980 to 2010, and fluctuations did occur during this 30-year period, the share of each age group within the full-time undergraduate student body in 1980 and 2010 were practically identical. While the number of students in the 18-to-21 age cohort grew over much of the 30-year period since 1980, the strongest rate of change was from 1999 to 2005, when their numbers jumped by more than 100,000. A good portion of that growth was driven by the abolition of Grade 13 in Ontario. The so-called double cohort of students caused two high school graduating classes to seek university spaces in 2003. The impact of the double cohort was expected to drive higher undergraduate enrolment over a four- or five-year period in Ontario, and in other provinces that attract relatively large numbers
Undergraduate enrolment 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

FIGURE 1 : Since 1980, full-time students have driven

growth in undergraduate enrolment

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010e

Full-time

Part-time

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

of OntarioFIGURE 2 : Younger students are drivingdemand for university students. Strong growth in growth at the undergraduate level education has seen the numbers of young students continue to grow, even as the double-cohort graduated.
500,000 450,000 From 1980 until 1999, the share of full-time undergraduate students 400,000 between the ages of 22 and 24 increased from 24 to 28 percent, 350,000 before returning to 24 percent in 2010. The dip in their numbers 300,000 in 2006 and 2007 was caused by the earlier starting age of students 250,000 entering undergraduate programs because of the abolition of 200,000 Grade 13 in Ontario in 2003. Once again, these numbers are 150,000 rebounding and have grown in the last three years. 100,000 50,000

Full-time undergraduate enrolment

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000 25-to-34 35 plus

2005

2010e

Under 22 22-to-24

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

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FIG U RE 1 : Since 1980, full-time students have driven

Undergraduate enrolment

While there was a general expectation that the trend towards lifelong 800,000 learning would drive higher enrolment demand from the over 35 age cohort, current trends do not support this hypothesis. Although the 700,000 number of students in this age group has tripled in the last 30 years 600,000 from 6,000 in 1980 to more than 18,000 in 2010, their share of all 500,000 full-time undergraduate students has remained at two percent.
400,000 300,000 Though universities are acutely aware of the presence and needs of 200,000 older students, enrolment growth is driven by much more their 100,000 rapid increases in traditional youth cohorts on many university campuses. In 2010, six out of seven, or 86 percent of students 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010e studying full-time at the undergraduate level were under the age of 25. Secondary school students increasingly recognize that university Part-time Full-time education is a requirement for many of the career paths they desire. As a result, they are enrolling directly into university upon Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates completion of high school.

growth in undergraduate enrolment

Part-time students

FI G U R E 4 : Universities are responsiv from undergraduate students

Change in full-time During the last 30 years, part-time undergraduate student enrolment undergraduate Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services has not grown as quickly as full-time undergraduate enrolment. Biological and Biomedical Sciences From 1980 to 1992, part-time undergraduate Journalism and grew byto 2007 enrolment 2002 Communication, Related Programs some 25 percent, peaking at an all-time record of 276,000 students 1997 to 2002 Parks, Recreation, Leisure and Fitness Studies in 1992. In the subsequent eight years,Visual and Performing Arts part-time enrolment dropped 1992 to 1997 back to 1980 levels. From 2000 to 2010, Professions and Related Health part-time enrolment Clinical Sciences grew, on average, by one percent a Liberal Arts and Sciences, General year compared to four percent Studies and Humanities for full-time enrolment. Engineering
Physical Sciences In 2010, approximately 24 percent of undergraduate students Psychology were studying part-time, and 60 percent of part-time students were Legal Professions and Studies over the age of 25, compared to 13 percent of full-time students. Despite the greater proportion of students overEducation of 25, the age Social Sciences part-time students are considerably younger than they were at the English Language and beginning of the 1980s when 76 percent of Literature/Letters students part-time History were over the age of 25. Business, Management, Marketing and Related Support Services

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10%

0%

FIG U RE 2 : Younger students are driving growth at the undergraduate level

500,000

450,000 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000

Some analysts pointed to the growth in the adult population as a factor that would strongly influence the age profile of students5 :over 1980, full-time ma FI G U R E Since full-time doctoral enrolment has time.1 Between 1980 and 1992, the population over the age of 25 grew by 45 percent. Over the same period, the number of students 100,000 in this age range grew by more than 40 percent, so it appeared that 90,000 enrolment growth was simply keeping pace with population growth. 80,000 In reality, the participation rates of part-time students in the older 70,000 age cohorts were actually declining. In effect, the rapid growth in 60,000 population was masking the decline in the participation rates in the 50,000 older age groups, leading to an erroneous conclusion that the age 40,000 profile of the subsequent generations of part-time30,000 students would 20,000 also be driven by older students.
Graduate enrolment 2005 2010e 10,000

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC es

Full-time undergraduate enrolment

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000 25-to-34 35 plus

Under 22 22-to-24

The changing labour market was a far more important0factor driving 1980 1985 the shifting patterns of part-time enrolment. A significant part

1990

Full-time Master's Full-time PhD

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC

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FI G U R E 6 : Part-time graduate stu

FIG U RE 3 : Part-time undergraduate students are younger

now than at the beginning of the 1980s


120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

Part-time undergraduate enrolment

than This phenomenon of revised expectations2 had a relativelytheir full-time counterparts long-lasting impact on part-time enrolment because students are Proportion of graduate students 3 often unlikely to complete their part-time programs quickly. At the 100% same time, the impact was only temporary. Once new educational 90% requirements for a given occupation are well known, youth leaving 80% 70% high school incorporate that knowledge into their decisions for 60% further education. This has driven demand for full-time, rather 50% than part-time enrolment. 40%

FI G U R E 6 : Part-time graduate stud

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010e

Under 22 22-to-24

25-to-34 35 plus

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

30% Rationales to explain the now growing proportion of younger 20% students in part-time study are more difficult to identify. Some 10% of the change could be a result of more students starting or 0 1980 1985 1990 19 completing a degree in part-time study. Statistics Canadas Labour Force Survey also highlights that since the early 1990s, more Full-time Masters students have been combining work and study than was the caseFull-time PhD in the 1980s. Working longer hours may lead some students to opt Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC for part-time rather than full-time study (at least for part of their program).

of the shift in part-time study especially in the growth of older female students resulted from changing educational requirements for entry into several occupations. In the early 1970s, entry into fields such as nursing, teaching and management began to require a university degree. At the same time, career and salary progress in these occupations became more constrained for those who had not completed degrees. These changes contributed to the rapid increase in part-time enrolment that took place prior to 1992 in business, biology, health science programs and, to a lesser extent, education. These shifts in educational requirements in the labour force had significant impacts on part-time enrolment trends. Youth who had not anticipated needing a degree for their desired career path in the 1960s and early 1970s recognized the need to revisit their educational plans. Many individuals revised earlier decisions to forego university and began to pursue part-time studies to meet the shift in labour market demand.
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Field of study

Between 19923 and 2007,4 full-time undergraduate enrolment grew strongly in most major fields of study. However, the rapid growth in all major fields of study over this long period masks much of change that took place within each discipline. The following chart illustrates the fluctuations in demand within disciplines that had more than 10,000 full-time students in 2007. The chart captures three shorter periods since 1992. In the early 1990s, student preferences shifted from arts and science programs to several professional and science-based programs. For example, the number of students enrolled in liberal arts and sciences, the social sciences, English and history all declined significantly between 1992 and 1997 while enrolment in computer science, biology and biomedical sciences as well as communication and journalism grew quite rapidly.
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Growth was widespread across most disciplines between 1997 and 2002, as enrolment in all the arts and sciences rebounded. Student numbers in business, engineering, health professions, computer science, communication and journalism programs grew rapidly between 20 and 40 percent during this period, while growth in biology and biomedical science slowed markedly. Enrolment in physical sciences remained constant, and enrolment in law and legal studies declined. Between 2002 and 2007, the fastest enrolment growth was in the physical sciences, health professions, and biology and biomedical sciences. Many of the arts and social science disciplines and business enrolment continued to expand strongly, but computer science enrolment fell by close to 50 percent, in response to the

problems encountered in the high technology sector in the early part of this decade. As a result, the three most popular programs for full-time undergraduate students in 2007 were business and management (with 90,700 students), liberal arts and sciences, general studies and humanities (with 65,700 students), and social sciences (with 63,100 students). The shifts that took place within individual disciplines demonstrate that students respond to signals from their peers and from the labour markets, and that institutions shift their programs to respond to student demand. All major disciplines were affected by the sharp drop in the number of part-time students between 1992 and 2000. However, most disciplines shared in the resurgence in growth that has taken place since 2000. The biggest increases in part-time undergraduate enrolment were in the social and behavioural sciences and law, followed by business, humanities and the health professions. Enrolment in computer sciences bucked both trends, growing in the 1990s, and falling in the last decade. In 2007, the most popular fields of study for part-time undergraduate students were the combined fields Business, Management and Public Administration Social and Behavioural Sciences, of business, management and public administration, which attracted and Law Architecture, Engineering and close to 50,000 or 20 percent of students. The humanities and the Related Technologies Health, social and behavioural sciences, and law each attracted about Parks, Recreation and Fitness Physical 37,000 part-time undergraduate students, or 32 percent of students. and Life Sciences, and Technologies
Humanities Education The most noticeable change in part-time enrolment over the Mathematics, Information Sciences period from 1992 to 2007 is the decline in the number of part-time Computer and Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation undergraduates studying in education from 32,000 in 1992 to Visual and Performing Arts, and 16,000 in 2007 or half as many people. By contrast, the onlyCommunications Technologies field of study that experienced significant growth during this period is the combined disciplines of health, parks, recreation and fitness, where part-time student enrolment increased by 32 percent.

F IGURE 4 : Universities are responsive to shifting demand from undergraduate students

Change in full-time undergraduate enrolment


Computer and Information Sciences and Support Services Biological and Biomedical Sciences Communication, Journalism and Related Programs Parks, Recreation, Leisure and Fitness Studies Visual and Performing Arts Health Professions and Related Clinical Sciences Liberal Arts and Sciences, General Studies and Humanities Engineering Business, Management, Marketing and Related Support Services Physical Sciences Psychology Legal Professions and Studies Education Social Sciences English Language and Literature/Letters History

2002 to 2007 1997 to 2002 1992 to 1997

Sou

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

FI

AUCC

F IGURE 5 : Since 1980, full-time masters enrolment has tripled and

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 9


65%

un

full-time doctoral enrolment has grown more than four-fold

Fem

Literature/Letters History

-50% -40% -30% -20% -10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

iving growth

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Graduate students
The number of graduate students has grown significantly faster than the number of undergraduate students over the last 30 years. The total number of graduate students grew from about 77,000 in 1980 to almost 190,000 in 2010. Of those 190,000, 143,000 were full-time students and 47,000 were enrolled in part-time studies. In 1980, there were 25,000 students enrolled full-time at the masters level, 9,800 at the PhD level, and another 10,000 in other graduate programs.5 By 2010, masters enrolment had more than 2005 2010e tripled to 82,400, and PhDs had grown four and a half-fold to 45,000. The number of students enrolled in other graduate and certificate programs had increased to 16,000. In addition, the graduate student body was older in 2010 than in 1980, there were more women, and a smaller proportion of students were studying part-time.
100,000 90,000 Graduate enrolment 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

FIGURE 5 : Since 1980, full-time masters enrolment has tripled and full-time doctoral enrolment has grown more than four-fold

95

2000 25-to-34 35 plus

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010e

Full-time Master's Full-time PhD


Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Part-time Master's Part-time PhD

stimates

Throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, graduate student enrolment grew at a steady pace. In the early 1990s many provinces reduced their university investments which contributed to the leveling out e students are younger of graduate enrolment in the mid-1990s. Between 1992 and 1998, 1980s the number of full-time university faculty declined by 10 percent, largely in response to deep cuts in government operating grants to universities. Once investment levels began to rise in 1996, universities were able to respond more fully to student demand. For example, the number of students in full-time masters and doctoral programs grew from 71,000 in 2000 to 127,000 in 2010. Another factor that contributed to the rise in graduate enrolment growth was the addition of new faculty to university campuses. Between 2000 and 2008, provincial governments operating support rebounded, allowing universities to add close to 7,600 full-time 2005 2010e faculty. Faculty members mentor graduate students, supervise thesis work and provide collaborative research opportunities for students.

Given the nature of these relationships, the addition of the new faculty was a critically important factor in facilitating graduate FIGURE 6 : graduate students are significantly older enrolment growth.Part-time counterparts than their full-time
Proportion of graduate federal and provincial governments Research support from the students 30 years of age and older 100% has also contributed to strong graduate enrolment growth. For 90% example, through the three federal research granting councils, 80% sponsored research investments more than doubled between 2000 70% and 2010, providing additional funding for graduate students in 60% the form of new and expanded scholarship programs, and through 50% increases in research grant programs. Similarly, universities have 40% expanded their own fellowship and aid programs for graduate 30% students. Several have introduced new programs to ensure that 20% 10% all graduate students have a minimum level of financial support 0 during their graduate programs. 1995 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010e
Full-time Masters Full-time PhD
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

95

2000

25-to-34 35 plus

Part-time Masters Part-time PhD

stimates

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100,000 90,000 Graduate enrolment 80,000 70,000 60,000

60% 55% 50%

Age 50,000
40,000

Part-time students

45% 40%

The age breakdown of full-time masters and PhD students has 30,000 shifted during the last 30 years. Masters and PhD students also 20,000generally older in 2010 than they were in 1980, but younger are 10,000 they were in the early 1990s. In 1980, 26 percent of full-time than 0 masters students were 30 years of age or older, increasing to a 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010e 30-year high of almost 36 percent in 1994, and then decreasing Full-time Master's Part-time Master's to 31 percent in 2010. The trend was similar for PhD students. Full-time PhD Part-time PhD In 1980, 46 percent of full-time PhDs were 30 years or older, Source: to 62 percent in 1992, and increasingStatistics Canada data and AUCC estimates then decreasing to 56 percent in 2010.
FIG U RE 6 : Part-time graduate students are significantly older than their full-time counterparts

As was the case at the undergraduate level, trends in part-time 35% graduate enrolment have followed different directions than their 30% full-time counterparts.
25% 1980 1985

Enrolment of part-time masters students grew slowly, from 22,000 Undergrad students in 1980 to 33,000 students in 2010. This is an increase of Masters almost 50 percent, or an average of between one and two percent growth per year. Part-time enrolment of PhD students decreased Source: Statistics Canada d by 15 percent, from 3,300 students in 1980 to 2,800 students in 2010. As a result, a smaller proportion of graduate students are studying part-time in 2010 than in 1980. Forty-seven percent of masters students were studying part-time in 1980, which decreased to 28 percent in 2010. The decrease in proportion of students studying part-time is even more dramatic at the doctoral level. In 1980, 25 percent of PhD students were studying part-time, down to six percent in 2010. The greatest decrease occurred in Quebec, where part-time enrolment fell dramatically during the late 1990s.

Proportion of graduate students 30 years of age and older 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010e

remained constant fro Part-time masters and PhD students were older in 2010 than their full-time counterparts and than part-time graduate students in 1980. 80% In 2010, 70 percent of part-time masters students and 87 percent 70% of part-time PhD students were over the age of 30, compared to 31 percent of full-time masters students and 56 percent of 60% full-time PhD students. In 1980, 58 percent of part-time masters students 50% and almost 80 percent of PhD students were over the age of 30. 40% 30%

FI G U R E 9 : Distribution

Full-time Masters Full-time PhD


Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Part-time Masters Part-time PhD

Field of study

Between 1992 and 2008, full-time masters enrolment grew 20% by 80 percent overall, with strong growth in all major fields of 10% study. Enrolment in health-related disciplines grew the fastest, tripling 0 between 1992 and 2008. Health-related disciplines now represent 12 percent of full-time masters students, up from eight percent in 1992.

Education

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Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 11 Canada da Source: Statistics

Total

Visual and Performing Arts

The three most popular fields of study at the masters level continued to be the combined disciplines of business, management and public administration; the social and behavioural sciences, and law; and, architecture, engineering and related technologies. Each of these fields grew by more than 75 percent during the period from 1992 to 2008, and combined, represent 58 percent of full-time masters students. While enrolment numbers also increased in the fields of education and humanities, the share of students in these fields decreased from nine to six percent, and 11 to seven percent, respectively.
FIGURE 7 : The discipline preferences of masters and

the doctoral student body. While the number of humanities students grew by almost 40 percent since 1992, it did not keep pace with the much faster growth in other areas, so its share of students fell from 16 percent in 1992 to 11 percent in 2008.

Gender
In 1980, women accounted for 45 percent of all full-time undergraduate students. Womens enrolment surpassed men in 1987, approximately the same time as women in other OECD countries, including the U.S. and United Kingdom.6 In subsequent years, women maintained a majority on campuses, and were responsible for much of the enrolment growth in the 1990s. Germany stands out as an exception within OECD countries, where the majority Education of students continued to be men. In 2000, 55 percent of registered and Fitness Health, Parks, Recreation university students in Germany were men, and in 2007, men still Technologies Visual and Performing Arts, and Communications represented 52 percent of university students at all levels.7 Social and Behavioural
Sciences, and Law Humanities

FIGUR

in mo

doctoral students is quite different

Female

Business, Management and Public Administration Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies Humanities Education Mathematics, Computer and Information Sciences Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation Visual and Performing Arts, and Communications Technologies

Masters PhD

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

Source: Statistics Canada

Full-time enrolment grew faster at the doctoral level than at the masters, almost doubling between 1992 and 2008. In 2008, the three most popular fields of study continued to be the combined FIGURE 8 : Proportion of women in full-time undergraduate sciences, and 2000 areas of physical and lifeprograms plateaued intechnologies, representing 22 percent of PhD students; social and behavioural sciences, Female percentage of full-time enrolment and law, representing 20 percent of PhD students; and architecture, 65% engineering and related technologies, representing 16 percent of 60%
55%

In the early 2000s, the U.S., U.K., and Canada saw womens Agriculture, Natural Resources share and Conservation Physical and Life Sciences, and of enrolment plateau at the undergraduate level. Women accounted Technologies Business, for 58 percent of enrolment at the undergraduate level in Canada,Management and Public Administration and 55 percent in the U.S. and U.K., respectively. Then, in 2008, Information Sciences Mathematics, Computer and Architecture, all countries experienced a slight drop in the share of womens Engineering and Related Technologies enrolment, in the range of one percent. This marked the first 0% decline in the share of female students since the post war period from 1945 to 1955 more than 50 years. Very similar patterns are seen in Australia, New Zealand, the Nordic countries and several Source: S others in the E.U. It remains to be seen whether this slight decrease in the share of female students is an indication of a narrowing gender gap in years to come. FIGUR
100,000 90,000

stude

ull-time enrolment

80,000 70,000 60,000

12 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment


45% 40%

50%

AUCC 50,000
40,000 30,000

Undergradua

Source: Statistics Canada

FIG U R E 8: Proportion of women in full-time

undergraduate programs plateaued in 2000

F IG U R E 9 : Distribution of undergraduate female students remained constant from 2000 to 2008

FIGURE 11 : Recruitm

student enrolment
100,000

Female percentage of full-time enrolment 65% 60% 55% 2010e 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 PhD 2005 2010e

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0


Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies Education Total Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law Architecture, Engineering Business, Management Mathematics, Computer Sciences Visual and Performing Arts Humanities Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation

2000 Full-time enrolment 2008

90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

1980

1985 Total

Undergraduate degree Masters


Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Graduat

Source: Statistics Canad

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Though women represented the majority of students at the undergraduate level, they did not represent the majority of students in every discipline. In 2008, women constituted the minority in the combined disciples of mathematics, computer and information sciences where they represented 26 percent of students, and architecture, engineering and related technologies where women represented 20 percent of students. Conversely, women dominate enrolment9in education where they represented 77 percent of FIG U R E : Distribution of undergraduate female students remained constant from 2000 to health, parks, recreation and fitness undergraduate students; and2008 where they represented 71 percent of undergraduate students. 80% fact, the gender distribution across the major fields of study at In 2000 70% undergraduate level has remained virtually unchanged since the 2008 2000. So, while men are still outnumbered two-to-one in social 60% science and life science disciplines, they are no longer losing ground.
50% 40% 30%

At the masters level, womens enrolment has followed a similar trajectory during the last 30 years. In 1980, women accounted for 40 percent of full-time students enrolled at the masters level. Women have contributed to more of the increase in full-time masters enrolment than men during most of the last three decades, and surpassed male enrolment in 1997. Between 1999 and 2005 womens share of masters students held steady at about 52 percent, but by 2010, their share had risen again, almost reaching 56 percent.G U RE 1 2 : Internat FI

business, engineerin

Gender distribution among major fields of study at the masters Distribution of full-t level is similar to the undergraduate level. Women represent the Business, Management majority of students in all fields, except in the combined disciplines Architecture and Engineering of mathematics, computer and information sciences (36 percent); Social and Behavioural Sciences, and architecture, engineering and related technologies (30 percent); Law in and Humanities business, management and public administration (47 percent). and Life At the Physical
Sciences Mathematics, Computer Sciences Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Visual and Performing Arts Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation

14 20% | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment


10%

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FIGURE 10 : Women represent the majority of students in most disciplines

Female percentage of full-time enrolment


Education Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Visual and Performing Arts, and Communications Technologies Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law Humanities Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation Physical and Life Sciences, and Technologies Business, Management and Public Administration Mathematics, Computer and Information Sciences Architecture, Engineering and Related Technologies

(63 percent). Women also represented the majority of full-time doctoral students in the social sciences (61 percent), visual and performing arts, and communications technologies (55 percent) and humanities (52 percent).

International students the global picture


Canadian universities are becoming increasingly internationalized. Over the last 30 years, the proportion of visible minorities, international students and even faculty from other countries has grown significantly. More universities are engaging in international research collaborations; more international students are coming from a larger number of countries; and more Canadian students are taking advantage of international learning and research opportunities abroad. Between 1980 and 1995, the number of full-time international students fluctuated widely. Strong increases at the beginning and end of the 1980s were followed by periods of similarly strong declines so that enrolment in 1995 was almost the same as in 1980. But since 1995, international enrolment has grown rapidly. In 2010, there are 3.5 times more international students enrolled at Canadian universities than in 1995, or 90,000 in 2010 compared to 25,500 in 1995. An additional 13,000 international students were studying part-time in 2010. In 2010, international students represented approximately eight percent of full-time undergraduate students in Canada, approximately 18 percent of full-time masters students and 23 percent of full-time PhD students. Greater representation of international students at the graduate level is not unique to Canada. For example, in the U.S., visa students represent about two percent of full-time undergraduate students in four-year public universities and about 23 percent of full-time graduate students. In the U.K., international students represent 55 percent of the graduate student body.
Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 15

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%
Masters

50%

60%
PhD

70%

80%

Undergraduates

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

masters level, women :have the highesthave helped triple international FIGURE 11 Recruitment activities representation in education (76 percent) andstudent enrolment numbers since 1998 and fitness (76 percent). in health, parks, recreation At the PhD level, the majority of full-time students continue to be 90,000 men, though women are gaining ground. In 1980, women accounted 80,000 for 30 percent of doctoral students. The percentage of female 70,000 doctoral students grew to 46 percent by 2000, and has increased 60,000 only marginally since then. In the United States, womens enrolment 50,000 40,000 numbers surpassed men at the doctoral level for the first time in 30,000 2008. Canada may not be far behind.8
Full-time enrolment
20,000 10,000 In 1992 women represented 18 percent students in mathematics, 0 computer, and 1980 information sciences and 11 percent of the2005 architecture, 1985 1990 1995 2000 2010e engineering and related technologies. By 2008 women represented Undergraduate and other Total 25 percent and 21 percent of students in these disciplines, respectively. programs levels Graduate Women represented the majority of students (69 percent) enrolled in education at Source:doctoral level, and AUCC estimates the health disciplines the Statistics Canada data as well as in 100,000

AUCC

Undergraduates

Masters

PhD

90,000

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Full-time enrolment

80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000

FIGURE 11 : Recruitment activities have helped triple international

student enrolment numbers since 1998


100,000 90,000

a greater percentage of domestic students were enrolled in 40,000 social and behavioural sciences and law, and the humanities. 30,000
20,000 10,000 In 1980, international students came to Canada from approximately 0 with 175 countries, 1980 the1985 majority (52 percent) of2000 students coming 1990 1995 2005 2010e from Hong Kong, the U.S., Malaysia, the U.K. and Iran, respectively. Undergraduate and other By 2008, the number of Total source countries had increased to 200. programs levels Graduate Despite the growth in the number of source countries, almost half of all international students continued to come from one of five Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates countries: China, France, the U.S., India and South Korea. Close to 16,000 students came from China, which has been Canadas top source of international students since 2001. Recruitment activities in France led to steady increases in students generating more than 7,100 students in 2008 and overtaking the U.S. as the second leading sending country. More than 6,600 students came from the U.S.; India is in fourth place sending approximately 2,900 students and approximately 2,780 students came to Canada from South Korea.

2005 PhD

Full-time enrolment

80,000

2010e 70,000
60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

1980

1985 Total Graduate

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010e

Undergraduate and other programs levels

Por No Slovak Rep Den J Fin United S Hun Ice Nether Sw Ca Germ Bel New Zea Switze Au United King Aus

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

students

Since 1995, enrolment of international students in every major field of study has grown strongly in Canadian universities. The number of international students has doubled in education, and there were four-fold increases in visual and performing arts, and business, management and public administration. In 2008, the most popular fields of study were: business, management and 2000 2008 public administration (23 percent), architecture, engineering and related technologies (16 percent) and social and behavioural sciences, and law (13 percent).
FIG U RE 12 : International students are far more likely to study in

FIGURE 1 2 : International students are far more likely to study in business, engineering and math than Canadian students

Distribution of full-time enrolment in 2008


Business, Management Architecture and Engineering Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law Humanities Physical and Life Sciences Mathematics, Computer Sciences Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Visual and Performing Arts Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation Education

When webusiness, engineering and math trends of international and domestic compared enrolment than Canadian students students by discipline, it became clear that while international studentsDistribution of full-time enrolmentmajor area of study, they are more are represented in every in 2008 Business, Management concentrated in certain areas. For example, 23 percent of international Architecture and Engineering students study business, management and public administration, Social and Behavioural Sciences, and Law compared to 14 percent of domestic students, and 15 percent of Humanities international students study architecture, engineering and related Physical and Life Sciences studies, compared to eight percent of domestic students. Conversely, Mathematics, Computer
Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness Architecture, Engineering
Sciences

International students Canadian Citizens

Earned doct

Master's d

Visual and Performing Arts Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation

Mathematics, Computer Sciences

Health, Parks, Recreation and Fitness

16 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

Agriculture, Natural Resources and Conservation

0%
Source: Statistics Canada

10%

20%

30%

Bachelor's Deg (including

College or C

Registered apprentic certicate or dip

International students Canadian Citizens

AUCC school certica High

Other trades certi or dip

equiv

No certicate, dip or d

The next nine jurisdictions Iran, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong, Japan, Pakistan, Taiwan, Germany Mexico and Nigeria account for 16 percent of Canadas full-time international students. These nine countries sent between 1,000 and 2,200 students each to Canada. The remaining countries sent fewer than 1,000 students each and accounted for one-third of international students, providing Canadian-born students with a tremendous breadth of culture in the classroom. It is interesting to note how quickly the international student market has grown, where that growth is taking place, and also how quickly students respond to recruitment efforts and incentives put in place by their own or other countries. For example, in 1980, there were only 650 Indian students enrolled at Canadian institutions. Indian students enrolment fluctuated between 1980 and 1997 when it began to grow rapidly. By 2008, there were almost 3,000 Indian students registered at Canadian universities an approximate

five-fold increase since 1997. Enrolment of Indian students is also likely to continue to grow in future years because the population in India is growing very rapidly, and because there has been a concerted effort on the part of the Canadian higher education sector to attract students from India. For example, in November 2010, AUCC led a delegation of 15 university presidents to India where more than $4 millions in student aid targeted to bring Indian students to Canada was announced.9 In recent years, the BC-based Network Centre of Excellence MITACS, as well as the governments of Ontario and Quebec have also introduced initiatives to attract students from India. Saudi Arabia is another example of a country that is increasingly sending students to Canada. In 2008-2009, Saudi Arabia became the seventh leading source country, up from 13th position the year before. This growth was driven in part by substantial investments on the part of the Saudi government, and in part by recruitment efforts of various Canadian institutions, working in collaboration with their counterparts abroad.
Global growth in foreign and international students

FIG U RE 1 3 :

Top source countries have changed since 1980 18,000 16,000 Full-time enrolment 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0
19 80 19 82 19 84 19 19 88 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 86 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08

China France

United States India

South Korea

It is not possible to get completely comparable information on changes in international university students in all countries, so it is not possible to report on precise changes in the market shares for each country. Several countries still report students who were born elsewhere but have lived in the country for many years and therefore did not move to their current country to attend university as foreign students. In recent years, the OECD has a made a major effort to exclude these students by creating a narrower definition of international students to include only those students who have moved from one country to another to attend university. Given this recent reporting adaptation, it is not possible to report on long-term international enrolment trends.

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 17

Based on recent trends, it is very likely that Canadas market share of international students has increased, as our growth outpaced the average growth in the OECD between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008. Canada is not alone in attracting more international students. The recent growth rate of international students in Canadas universities is similar to enrolment growth in nations such as Japan, Sweden, Norway, and Finland. Countries such as the Netherlands, New Zealand, Korea and the Czech Republic, which have historically attracted very small numbers of international students, are growing at a faster pace, and generating greater competition for students, particularly from Asia and within the E.U. In 2007-2008, U.S. universities attracted some 580,000 international students, by far the most in the OECD. The U.K. was second, attracting about 310,000 students, followed by Australia with almost 200,000 and Germany and France with approximately 180,000. However, given the overall size of the U.S. system, only four percent of their university-level students were of international origin, whereas international students represented approximately 21 percent of Australias student population, followed by 17 percent in the U.K., 11 percent in France and nine percent in Germany. In 2007, with a little above seven percent, Canada was near the middle of OECD countries in terms of the share of international students at all program levels. As noted above, recent growth has driven the international student population up in Canada, to represent about 10 percent in 2010. While the U.S. is quite low on this comparative measure, it has much higher numbers at the doctoral level where 28 percent of PhD students are of international origin. It is also important to note that international students are once again on the rise in the U.S. They grew by about 20 percent or by more than 100,000 students between 2005 and 2009, reversing the decline the country experienced after September 11, 2001. Improvements to the international student visa process was another contributing factor. In the coming decade, Canada will face
18 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

FIGURE 14 : Australia and the U.K. had the largest shares of

international university students in 2007-2008

Spain Chile Portugal Norway Slovak Republic Denmark Japan Finland United States Hungary Iceland Netherlands Sweden Canada Germany Belgium New Zealand Switzerland Austria United Kingdom Australia

PhD Bachelors and masters

Canada was in the middle both for bachelors/masters and for doctoral international students

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Source: OECD, 2010 Education at a Glance, data for 2007-2008

intensifying competition for international students, even though the number of international students is expected to grow rapidly. This competition will come from nations emerging into the international student recruitment market, such as New Zealand, Korea and the Czech Republic, as well as from leaders in student recruitment, including our closest neighbour.
Canadians students going abroad

The number of Canadians studying abroad is also growing. In 2007-2008,FIGURE 16 : Earnings of Aboriginal Canadians increase with UNESCO reported 45,000 Canadian students studying educational attainment abroad, a 50 percent increase since 1999. The top five international Average income for full-time, full-year work destinations for Canadian students in that academic year were Earned doctorate the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, France and Ireland. Together, they attracted 90 percent of Canadian students Master's degree studying Bachelor's Degree(s) abroad. Of that group, the U.S. is by far the most popular (including LL.B.) destination, attracting approximately 65 percent of all Canadian College or CEGEP students studying abroad. Registered apprenticeship
certicate or diploma Other trades certicate or diploma High school certicate or equivalent No certicate, diploma or degree Total Highest certicate, diploma or degree

Abori

AUCC
$0 $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000

In addition to those registered in foreign universities, a growing number of students are pursuing study abroad experiences with credits accumulating at their Canadian university. In 1997, roughly one percent of full-time students enrolled in Canadian universities were participating in some kind of study abroad experience. By 2005-2006, AUCC estimates indicated that there had been some growth, and more than two percent of Canadian students were participating in a study abroad experience.

majority of Aboriginal students have studied in education, social and behavioural sciences and business. Table 1 demonstrates the growth in attainment rates for Aboriginal Canadians compared to non-Aboriginal Canadians over the 25-year period from 1981 to 2006. In 1981, only two percent of Aboriginal Canadians aged 25-to-64 had a university degree, compared to 8.1 percent of non-Aboriginal Canadians of the same age. During the next 25 years, the attainment rate of Aboriginal Canadians increased to 7.7 percent, while the attainment rate for non-Aboriginals increased to 23.4 percent, generating a larger gap in attainment rates between Aboriginal Canadians and non-Aboriginal Canadians.
TABLE 1: The gap between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal university

Aboriginal students
Information about Aboriginal Canadians enrolled on university campuses comes from a variety of sources, as there is no single group which gathers comprehensive information about Aboriginal students. Using data from the Canadian University Survey Consortium (CUSC),10 AUCC estimates that there are between 20,000 and 25,000 Aboriginal students in Canadian universities, and that the number of Aboriginal students has been growing at the same rate as overall student numbers over much of the last decade. In 2002, Aboriginal students represented approximately three percent of all undergraduate students, a share they have maintained since 2002. Given the lack of comprehensive information, AUCC is unable to describe all the characteristics of the Aboriginal university student body in detail. However, Census data does provide some useful information about the educational profile of Aboriginal Canadians. In 2006, less than eight percent of Aboriginal Canadians between the ages of 25 and 64 or 43,000 university graduates had a university degree. Within this group, 36,000 Aboriginal Canadians have undergraduate or professional degrees, of which 65 percent are women. Approximately 5,800 Aboriginal Canadians have a masters degree and 1,100 have a doctoral degree. Fifty-five percent of Aboriginal Canadians with a masters degree are women and 48 percent of Aboriginal PhD graduates are women. A strong
AUCC

attainment rates is widening

Proportion of the population with a university degree Year 1981 1991 1996 2001 2006 Aboriginal 2% 2.6% 4.2% 5.9% 7.7% Non-Aboriginal 8.1% 11.6% 15.5% 20.1% 23.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 19

Social, cultural, economic and geographic factors contribute to create serious obstacles to postsecondary education for Aboriginal Canadians, lowering their participation and attainment rates. First and foremost, research shows that university participation for youth is strongly correlated with the educational attainment of their parents, which also helps to explain why Aboriginal students are at greater risk of dropping out of high school.11 Thirty-four percent of Aboriginal Canadians aged 25-to-64 have less than a high school education, compared to 15 percent of the non-Aboriginal population of same age. For 25-to-34 year-olds, the gap for Aboriginals who havent finished high school widens to three times the rate of other Canadians in that age group (32 percent compared to 10 percent). For those students who complete high school, constrained access to financial aid is another barrier. Through Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAC), the Post-Secondary Student Support Program (PSSSP) allocates more than $300 million to eligible college and university students. INAC distributes PSSSP funds to First Nations Bands or their administering organizations. However, core funding for this program has not increased since 1994 when $20 million was added. Since 1996, growth has been capped at around annual inflation. A 2004 report12 by the Auditor General of Canada concluded lack of federal funding was preventing approximately 9,500 First Nations people from pursuing a postsecondary education. In the years that followed, as more Aboriginal youth qualified for PSE funding, bands faced a difficult choice: reduce the amount of funding available for each student, or reduce the total number of students receiving financial aid. Most bands have opted to decrease the number of students supported; in 19951996 PSSSP supported more than 27,000 postsecondary students and in 2008-2009 it supported roughly 22,000.13 In addition, PSSSP funding is available only to Status Indians and Inuit. For those individuals who are not Status Indians or Inuit, or who do not receive adequate funding through PSSSP, other funding sources must be obtained.
20 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

Aboriginal Canadians comprise a greater proportion of the population in western and northern and often more rural parts of Canada. For example, Aboriginal Canadians under the age of 20 make up 94 percent of the entire youth population in Nunavut, 63 percent in the Northwest Territories, 35 percent in the Yukon and 25 percent in Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In total, 46 percent of Aboriginal youth live in rural areas, compared to 17 percent of non-Aboriginal Canadians. This is important because research demonstrates that distance from university is a factor that influences university participation rates. In order to obtain a university education, students in rural areas must leave their family and social networks behind, and will also incur substantial moving and living costs to attend university.

FIGURE 15: The share of Aboriginal youth in the population varies by province

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

AUCC

F IGURE 16 : Earnings of Aboriginal Canadians increase with

educational attainment Average income for full-time, full-year work


Earned doctorate Master's degree Bachelor's Degree(s) (including LL.B.) College or CEGEP Registered apprenticeship certicate or diploma Other trades certicate or diploma High school certicate or equivalent No certicate, diploma or degree Total Highest certicate, diploma or degree

These private benefits higher income and employment rates are the same factors that have driven demand for university education across Canada and around the world. These are also the factors that Aboriginal will likely cause demand for university education to increase among the rapidly growing Aboriginal Canadian population. The 2006 Census reported more than 470,000 Aboriginal Canadians under the age of 20. The majority of these individuals will be entering the labour force during the next two decades. Increasing their participation rates will help to narrow the gap in attainment rates between Aboriginal Canadians and non-Aboriginal Canadians.

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

For those Aboriginal Canadians who do get a university education, the benefits are clear. Aboriginal Canadians with university degrees earn higher wages, and have higher employment rates. Aboriginal Canadians with only a high school certificate earn on average $36,000 per year, compared to Aboriginal Canadians with a university degree, who earn on average $55,000 per year. As educational attainment rises, so does the average income of Aboriginal Canadians. Aboriginal Canadians with a masters degree earn on average $67,000, and $71,000 with a PhD. Employment rates also increase significantly with higher levels of education. For example, the 2006 Census revealed that only about 45 percent of Aboriginal Canadians between age 25 and 64 who have not completed secondary school are employed. Employment levels rise to 67 percent for high school graduates, 75 percent for college graduates and 84 percent for bachelors graduates. The latter is virtually identical to the 83 percent employment rates for non-Aboriginal bachelors graduates.
AUCC Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 21

Drivers of change

22 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

Drivers of change
Projecting future enrolment levels, even over a relatively short period, is difficult to do with great precision. The factors that push and pull enrolment sometimes work in concert and at other times work to offset the influence of one another. They include changes in local, regional, national and international demography, as well as changes in the factors that influence the demand for a university education, including individual and societal perceptions of the value of a degree. Changes in the size and composition of youth and other cohorts attracted to university will also play a role in driving future enrolment levels. In addition to the factors listed above, enrolment is also affected by labour market demand for highly qualified graduates, parental education and socio-economic status, urbanization, immigration and international students. Enrolment is only a measure of the degree to which demand for university education is met. Consequently, it is also necessary to consider factors that affect universities capacity to meet this demand and absorb new students. Examples of these factors include government policies that influence the availability of human and physical resources (technology and space) needed to provide high-quality learning experiences for students, as well as opportunities for internships, co-op experiences and interaction with students from a broad array of cultures in an ever-expanding global environment.

Enrolment is not a true measure of demand for university education. It is simply a measure of the amount of demand that is met.

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 23

Demographic trends
The echo of the baby boom generation is currently working its way through Canadian universities;14 2011 marks the year in which the numbers in the 18-to-21 age cohort peak. Students within this age group now comprise 52 percent of full-time enrolment. Over the next decade, the population in this age group will decline by about 10 percent, diminishing the pool from which universities have traditionally drawn new students. Population in the 18-to-21 age cohort is then projected to rebound in the decade from 2020 to 2030 to the point where it will slightly exceed 2010 levels. Thus, population trends in this cohort could have a significant impact on overall enrolment levels across Canada.
F IG U R E 1 7 : In 2010, students under 22 years of age made up

F I G U R E 1 8 : Shifting demographic patterns will be a constant challenge over the next 30 years

130 Population (Index 2010 =100)

35-to-39 30-to-34 25-to-29

120

110 22-to-25 100 18-to-21

90 80 2010 2015 18-to-21 30-to-34 2020 2025 22-to-25 35-to-39 2030 2035 25-to-29 2040

F I G U RE 2 9 : Sin

has grown rap

half the full-time student body

Employment ch
British Columbia Alberta

3.3% 2.5% 5% 13.6% 52.2% 23.7%

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

40+40+ 35-to-39 35-39 30-to-34 30-34 25-to-29 25-29 22-to-24 21 or younger 22-24
Source: Statistics Canada and AUCC estimates

25-to-29; 11 percent for the 30-to-34 age group and nine percent Saskatchewan for those aged 35-to-39. The combined impact of these various Manitoba demographic factors will drive enrolment demand over at least theOntario next five to seven years, assuming constant participation rates. As Quebec New illustrated in Figure 18, the relative size of the population in eachBrunswick of Nova Scotia FIGURE XX: Population changes will have a small impact these older age groups will vary next two decades, but will years after Edward Island widely during the 20 2020. on full-time enrolment over the Prince
lead to growth in the long term
Newfoundland

1,000,000

Full Time Enrolement

From 2030 to 2040, population in the three younger cohorts and Labrador Canada 30 plus (which, when combined, accounts for almost 90 percent of full-time 900,000 -10% 0% students today) is projected to grow strongly and will, other things Source: Statistics Can 25-to-29 800,000 being equal, drive growth in demand in that period. 700,000
600,000 500,000 22-to-24 18-to-21 Total

Population growth in the older age groups will counterbalance the impact of the 18-to-21 cohort. Over the coming decade, the population of the four older age cohorts is expected to grow by four percent in the 22-to-24 age group; seven percent for those
FIGURE 19: Population changes will have a small impact on

To isolate the cumulative impact of these varying demographic trends, enrolment projections were developed assuming constant 400,000 participation rates within each age group. Under that assumption, 300,000 full-time enrolment would fall by about 3.8 percent from current
200,000 100,000

full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term

24 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment 1,200,000


1,000,000

30 plus 25-to-29

2010

2015 18-to-21

2020

2025 22-to-24

2030

2035 25-to-29

2040
University

F I G U RE 4 4 : Univer large share of inco AUCC government trans

FIGURE XX: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term
FIGURE 19: Population changes will have a small impact on

full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term

1,000,000 Full-time enrolment 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0

Full Time Enrolement

1,200,000

A good example is Saskatchewan, which over the last few years 30 plus 900,000 has reversed a long-standing trend in out-migration of youth to F I G U RE 4 4 25-to-29 share 800,000 other provinces and is now attracting interprovincial migrants. large governme Statistics 30 plus700,000 Canada has produced three projection scenarios which 22-to-24 paint very divergent pictures of the future trends within the 600,000 25-to-29 University 18-to-21 age group. The first scenario was made in 2005 and is graduation 18-to-21 500,000 22-to-24 on the long-term historical trends in interprovincial migration based 400,000 Community college, Total at CEGEP 18-to-21that time. Under those assumptions, Statistics Canada was 300,000 projecting a steep decline in that age cohort over the course of 200,000 Total the decade from 2010 to 2020, remaining 30 percent below Trades, vocational, apprenticeship 100,000 todays level until at least 2030.
0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Graduated high school

1,000,000

2010

2015 Total 25-to-29

2020

2025 18-to-21 30 plus

2030

2035 22-to-24

2040

Source: AUCC estimates

The second scenario was also based on long-term trends, but was Less than high 25-to-29 22-to-24 18-to-21 updated by Statistics Canada in 2010, and includes the impact of school 30 plus Total new population growth due to recent migration trends. It projected 0% a smaller rate of decline, aboutProjections 2009 by 2022, at which point 17 percent Source: Survey Source: Statistics Canada, Population the population will begin to rebound. By 2030, the population would almost return to 2010 levels.
F I G U R E 2 0 : Underlying assumptions will have a major impact on projections for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan

levels by 2020, then rise steadily to 3.2 percent beyond current levels by 2030. Population changes alone would drive even greater enrolmentFIGURE 21: The mid-growth scenario projects strong population growth in the subsequent decade.
rebound in the 18-to-21 age cohort nationally and in Quebec

110 105 Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100)

Shifts120 population will not be uniform in all regions of the in country. When compared with national population projections, 110 provincial and territorial projections are subject to increased variability because of uneven patterns in interprovincial migration 100 from year to year. Variations in interprovincial migration can be sizable, leading to different provincial population projections. 90 Differences in interprovincial migration patterns are often driven 80 by structural or economic changes in a province. As a result, different assumptions regarding interprovincial migration add 70 considerable uncertainty to projections at the provincial/ territorial level.15 60
Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario
10 20 12 20 14 20
Quebec

Quebec

100 95

90 New Brunswick

Nova Scotia 80
75 Prince Edward Island

85

Newfoundland and Labrador 65 Canada


60 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Recent interprovincial mobility trends 2006 medium growth projection
Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

70

Historical trends

16 20

18 20

20 20

22 20

24 20

26 20

36 20 4

2 20 8

New Brunswick Nova Scotia Newfoundland and Labrador

3 20 0

3 20 2

3 20

AUCC

Prince Edward Island Canada

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 25

1,200,000 1,000,000 Full-time enrolment 800,000

22-to-25 18-to-21

30 plus

Age 18-21 (In Historical tr

100 90 80
University graduation

large share governmen

25-to-29

0 2010

Its third scenario assumes that recent interprovincial migration trends will persist throughout the projection period. This would 600,000 result in a less severe drop of just 12 percent by 2020, followed 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 by 400,000 more rapid rebound. The rebound would generate an even 25-to-29 18-to-21 22-to-25 population levels significantly higher in 2030 than in 2010. 200,000
30-to-34 35-to-39

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

Saskatchewans evolving demographic situation serves to demonstrate 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 how population trends at the provincial level are less intractable Total 18-to-21 22-to-24 than they sometimes appear. Understanding the potential implications 30 impacts university enrolment of these different25-to-29 scenarios clearly plus planning. While Saskatchewan is perhaps the starkest example, Source: AUCC estimates appreciating the nature and effect of shifting provincial demography is important in every province.

22-to-24 Universities in all provinces will clearly confront different challenges Community college, 70 CEGEP as of trends in the local and regional areas from 18-to-21 a result 2010 demographic2018 2014 2022 2026 2030 2034 which they normally attract their students. The two charts on thisvocational, Trades, Total page illustrate howBritish Columbia populations in the 18-to-21 age cohort apprenticeship Alberta provincial would change under Statistics Canadas medium growth scenario. Saskatchewan Manitoba Graduated high All provinces will experience a decline betweenand Labrador 2024, and school 2012 and Ontario Newfoundland all will start to see their population in that age group rebound in than high Less the following years.Prince Edward Island BritishCanada Some provinces Columbia, Alberta, school Manitoba and Ontario will see larger cohorts of 18-to-21 year-olds 0% Quebec Nova Scotia New Brunswick Source: Survey o after 2030 than in 2010. As noted earlier, universities will also need Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 to adjust planning on an ongoing basis to account for shifts in the migration patterns.

FIG URE X X: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term FIGURE 21 : The mid-growth scenario projects strong population rebound in the 18-to-21 age cohort nationally and in Quebec 30 plus 130 Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario
120 Age 18-21 (Index 2010=100) Historical trends scenario 110 100 90 80 70

F I G U R E 2 2 : The mid-growth scenario projects population in the 18-to-21

age cohort will rebound strongly in all provinces west of Quebec

25-to-29 22-to-24 18-to-21 Total

Quebec

120

New Brunswick 110 Nova Scotia 100 Prince Edward Island 90


80 Newfoundland and Labrador

Canada
2025 22-to-24 2030 2035 25-to-29 2040
36 20 34 20 32 20 30 20 28 20 26 20 24 20 22 20 20 20 18 20 16 20 14 20 12 20 10 20

O 2020 2025
Alberta Manitoba

70

2010

2015
British Columbia Saskatchewan

2030
Canada Ontario

2036

2010

2015 18-to-21 30 plus

2020 60

Total Quebec

New Brunswick Nova Scotia Newfoundland and Labrador

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

Prince Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009 Edward Island Canada

F I G U R E 2 3 : Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time


Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

F I G U RE 2 0 : Underlying assumptions will have a major impact on projections for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan

bachelor's students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population declines in that cohort

26 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment


FIGURE 28 : Canadas shifting employment market is creating more

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan

AUCC

30 plus

Total

Source: Statistics Canada, Population Projections 2009

stics Canada, Population Projections 2009

Factors affecting participation rates


As the following section shows, changes in university participation rates have played a much more significant role in driving enrolment growth than demography over the last 50 years. University enrolment has grown both in periods of demographic booms and busts. Throughout the 1960s, full-time undergraduate enrolment growth outpaced population growth. Undergraduate enrolment more than doubled (135 percent growth) while the population of the 18-to21 age group grew by some 50 percent as the baby boomers first started to reach university age. During the 1970s, undergraduate enrolment growth kept pace with 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 the rapid population growth caused by the baby boomer generation.
Historical trends

F IGURE 2 3 : Between 1980 and 1993, the number of full-time

0 : Underlying assumptions will have a major impact

bachelor's students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population declines in that cohort

tions for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada Population age 18-21 Full-time bachelors enrolment age 18-21

Population age

Full-time bache

12 2014

At the beginning of the 1980s, baby boomers of university age caused enrolment in universities to peak. In the subsequent 13 years, stics Canada, Population Projections 2009 all provinces experienced sharp population declines in the 18-to-21 cohort the so-called baby bust. This youth cohort declined by 21 percent nationally, ranging from about a five percent decline in Newfoundland and Labrador to 30 percent in Quebec. At the time, forecasters were projecting big enrolment declines for the decade 2006 medium growth projection of the 1980s, and big savings if the sector was to downsize.
2006 medium growth projection

Recent interprovincial mobility trends

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

Recent interprovincial mobility trends Historical trends

Those projections were never realized. Despite the deep population declines, the number of students in this age range actually grew very strongly in every province. Nationally, enrolment in the 18-to21 year-old cohort increased by about 35 percent, with growth rates of 50 percent or more in Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Alberta. Growth in participation rates has continued to be a more important factor driving enrolment increases than changes in the population

of key cohorts. From 2000 to 2010, full-time undergraduate enrolment for the 18-to-21 cohort grew much more rapidly than F IGURE 2 4 : Between 2000 and 2010, growing participation and population the underlying drive rapidin population in that provinces change enrolment increases in most age group in every have combined to province. Indeed, while the population base for the cohort declined in three provinces Newfoundland, New Brunswick and Quebec enrolment from within that cohort grew strongly in Newfoundland British Columbia and Labrador as well as Quebec, where the growth in participation Alberta rates more than compensated for the decline in the population. In Saskatchewan the other seven provinces, rising population and rising participation Manitoba rates ** Ontario combined to drive strong increases in enrolment. In addition, the elimination of grade 13 inPopulation agein 2003 created Ontario 18-to-21 New Brunswick a double cohort as two high school classes entered the university Full-time undergraduate Nova Scotia enrolment age 18-to-21 system in one year artificially inflating enrolment growth. It has Prince Edward Island taken several years for that group of students to work through Newfoundland and Labrador undergraduate programs and many are now enrolled in graduate Canada
-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates ** Ontario was age 19-to-22 in 2000 and age 18-to-21 in 2010 Trends in Higher Education
Qubec (19 to 22)

AUCC

| Volume 1. Enrolment | 27

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

F I GUR E XX: Canadas shifting employment market is creating m demand for education within and across different occupations

FI G U RE 24 : Between 2000 and 2010, growing participation and population have combined to drive rapid enrolment increases in most provinces

Urban youth

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario ** Qubec (19 to 22) New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada

Canadas population is becoming more andand more urban, with Profesional management occupations 25 million people, or 80 percent of the population, living in urban areas. Between 2001 and 2005, the population of the Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) grew by administrative & representing 1.4 million, Technical, 90 percent of the growth in total population of Canada from 2001 health support to 2006. The 20 largest CMAs grew by 6.1 percent compared to just 3.5 percent for the population outside these areas.
Clerical, sales and service occupations

Population age 18-to-21 Full-time undergraduate enrolment age 18-to-21

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates ** Ontario was age 19-to-22 in 2000 and age 18-to-21 in 2010

Urban populations are important because they tend to generate more demand for universities than their more rural counterparts. Manufacturing, trades and For example, 32 percent of occupations in primary industry who live in urban 25-to-34 year-olds areas have earned a university degree, compared to only 13 percent -900% -600% -300% of adults of the same age who live in rural areas. Combined with 0% 300% the fact that almost two-thirds of 15-to-24 year Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey olds live in the 20 largest CMAs, this will continue to create demand for urban institutions, particularly those universities that provide access to Did not complete high school students in their immediate local urban area.
High school or less

600

programs. But with the growth in participation rates in Ontario since 2003, there are now moreage 18-to-21 Population undergraduate students enrolled in that province than there wereundergraduate of the double cohort. Full-time at the peak
enrolment age 18-to-21

Given these participation trends, it is clear that all universities must carefully monitor how the upcoming echo of the baby bust will impact their enrolment levels. It is also certain that population declines will have a more significant impact on some universities than others, given the trends in their region. A number are already experiencing demographically driven challenges. Indeed, university participation rates will need to grow in some cases significantly if university enrolment is to continue to increase over the coming decade. Historical trends suggest some growth in participation is likely. While it is extremely difficult to quantify exactly how participation rates will change, it is important to review how several of the following factors will influence university participation rates and enrolment across Canada.
28 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

It is clear that continued urbanization will drive further increases in demand for a university education over the coming decade. certificate or diploma Post-secondary It will become increasingly important for universities to work with governments to find efficient ways to meet that demand. Many University degree solutions exist to manage demand for education in urban hubs that are facing capacity challenges, including growing capacity in highdemand locations, helping students travel to where capacity exists and using digital technologies to provide greater access to distance education and mediated learning.

AUCC

Prince Edward Island Quebec

Canada Nova Scotia New Brunswick

io projects strong population nationally and in Quebec

Immigration and international students

Over the past decade, the number of visa students and new immigrants coming to Canada with a university degree has grown strongly. There are several reasons to expect that this trend will continue to place upward pressure on enrolment demand.
Thousands

F IGURE 2 5 : Projecting strong growth for international tertiary students worldwide

4,000 3,500 3,000

22

2026 Alberta

Several recent studies project very strong increases in international student demand for Canadian higher education over the coming decade, with particularly strong growth from East Asia. In 2007, there were 2.8 million international tertiary students worldwide, representing a 53 percent increase since 1999.16 A report produced by IDP Education Australia estimates that by 2025 there will be 3.7 million international tertiary students worldwide, 47 percent of 2030 whom will2034 Asian.17 be

2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: IDP Education Pty Ltd 2007

Europe Europe America America Asia, Oceana Asia, Oceana Middle East Middle East Africa Africa

While strong growth in international student numbers is expected to continue over the next 20 years, the competition for those Newfoundland and students, especially the best and brightest among them, is also Labrador expected to intensify. Many countries have developed coordinated Canada national strategies and mechanisms to attract international ova Scotia New Brunswick students. For example, in 2008, the United Kingdom attracted ons 2009 306,000 full-time international students, representing 20 percent of the U.K. student body, which is twice as high as the percentage of international students in Canada. These international numbers are driven in large part by strong marketing efforts.
Manitoba

projects population in the 18-to-21 ll provinces west of Quebec

In 1999, the U.K. launched its Prime Ministers Initiative for International Education18 to promote itself as the premiere destination for international students. In 2006, the U.K. launched the second phase of this initiative, which included a 35 million investment (approximately $70 million CAD) and a target to British Columbia attract an additional 100,000 international students to higher Alberta education programs by 2011. This funding is in addition to regular funding the British Council receives to promote the U.K. Saskatchewan education system through its offices in 100 countries worldwide.
Manitoba Ontario

In November of6 :2010, minority groupsextension likely U.K.F IGURE 2 Visible a five-year are far more of the to have completed a university degree India Education and Research Initiative was negotiated and signed in India. UKIERI aims to substantially improve Korean educational links between India and the U.K. It is seen as Arab West Asian a way to create a step of change in educational relations, Japanese so that in the longer term the two countries become each Filipino others partner of choice in education. Over the first five South Asian years of the program (2006-2010), UKIERI committed nearly Chinese 25 million to the initiative and over the last two years, the Multiple visible minority Latin American program has fostered 475 links across the U.K. and India.
Not a visible minority Black Southeast Asian

45-to-54 y

25-to-29 y

45-to-54 years 25-to-29 years

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

2025
Alberta

2030 AUCC
Canada

2036

Canada

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 29


F IGURE 2 7 : Students are responding to growing demand for

knowledge workers in Canadas labour market

30 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

In addition to growing competition, Canadian universities also have to compete with changes in several developing nations which are radically expanding educational opportunities within their own borders and are beginning to recruit or repatriate students from abroad. For example, Chinas higher education system expanded close to four-fold to almost 27 million students between 1999 and 2007.19 The very rapid expansion of Chinas economy is fostering educational aspirations and access. Even as Chinas youth cohort (age 20-24) is expected to decline by approximately 25 percent by 2020, plans exist to continue expanding access to education over the coming decade. India is also expanding rapidly, growing from 9.4 million students in 1999 to more than 15 million in 2007.20 In spite of being one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the world, India does not have enough university capacity to meet student demand. As a result, many Indian students seek university education abroad. For example, in 2008 more than half (86,000) of the approximately 160,000 Indian students who studied abroad went to the U.S. Approximately 30,000 registered to study in the U.K. and more than 27,000 went to Australia. Only about 3,000 came to Canada.21 Moreover, the Indian Minister of Human Resource Development recently announced that the Indian central government is looking to add approximately 30 million more university student places by 2020. It hopes to progress towards this goal by working with its private sector and foreign education providers, expanding distance learning and enlarging the online format of learning. New recruitment programs in developed nations and the growing supply of spaces in emerging economies will further intensify competition for international students. Canadas leaders22 across all education sectors are working together and with government officials to develop a national strategy to attract more international students to Canada and to create and enhance our global economic,
AUCC

diplomatic and cultural ties. This is seen as critical to enabling Canadian universities to compete more effectively for the best and brightest international students. While global demand for education is rising, the costs of meeting that demand and competing for the best students are also certain to rise. Moreover, as population growth in Africa and other developing nations spurs additional growth in international student demand, the costs of evaluating and assessing student preparedness and of helping students from these emerging nations adjust to life in Canada are also likely to increase. These rising costs may temper the ability of some Canadian universities to maintain their market share of a rapidly growing international student market. In addition to attracting international students, Canada has also been a very attractive destination for immigrants. Recent growth in immigration is also likely to drive increases in enrolment demand in the coming decade. Past trends indicate that the immigrant population is more likely to have a university degree. More than 50 percent of adults immigrating to Canada in the last decade were university graduates. Given the high value that these newcomers to Canada place on education, it is quite certain that they and their children will generate new and growing demands on Canadas universities. For example, in 2008 there were more than 85,000 immigrants coming to Canada with a university degree from abroad, a threefold increase from 1990 levels. However, the Census reveals that recent immigrants to Canada are having a more difficult time deploying their skills and knowledge in the labour force than previous immigrants. This may in part be due to the rapid increase in both the number and share of recent immigrants who have earned their degrees in developing nations. As a result, their language skills are inferior to the skills of previous generations of immigrants who were more frequently from Europe or the United States. These
Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 31

Manitoba

Newfoundland and Labrador


FIGURE 2 5 : Projecting strong growth for international

ewfoundland and Labrador Canada

tertiary students worldwide 4,000 Europe Europe America America Asia, Oceana Asia, Oceana Middle East Middle East Africa Africa

Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia

va Scotia

ns 2009

Thousands

newer immigrants may have a greater need to supplement their 3,500 New Brunswick previous education to enable them to more fully utilize their skills, 3,000 knowledge and talents in the workplace. Consequently, the demand for upgrading courses and programs could grow quite strongly in 2,500 the coming years.
2,000

Labour market demand to have completed a university degree

F I G U R E 2 6 : Visible minority groups are far more likely

New Brunswick

1,500 Finally, it is clear that many of the immigrant groups coming to projects population in the 18-to-21 1,000 Canada l provinces west of Quebec place a high value on education. Research also suggests they are likely to provide the kind of support and encouragement that 500 will drive0higher levels of university participation by their children. 2005 2010 2015 The 2006 Census illustrates the 2020 2025 of degree completion, higher levels both for youngIDP Education Pty Ltd 2007 groups and for their parents Source: visible minority British Columbia generation. This will be an important driver of future growth in university participation rates in Alberta Canada. Saskatchewan
FIGUR E 26 : Visible minorityManitoba groups are far more likely to have completed a university degree Ontario

South Asian Chinese

Quebec Over the last 20 years, profound changes have taken place in Korean Canadas economy, including the occupational mix andOntario education Arab levels within that mix. The number of jobs filled by Manitoba university West Asian graduates more than doubled from 1.9 million inSaskatchewan million 1990 to 4.4 inJapanese Meanwhile, there were 1.2 million fewer jobsAlberta 2010. for those Filipino who had a high school diploma or less. British Columbia

Multiple visible minority

0.1% Looking more closely at the occupation mix of Canadas -0.1% labour 0.0% 45-to-54 y 25-to-29 force reveals that professional occupations typically require the most Latin American Other education education. Indeed, university graduates comprise 60 years80 percent 45-to-54 to Not a visible minority University degree - bach 25-to-29 occupations: of the employees and professionals in the following years Black business and finance; art, culture and recreation; health; engineering Southeast Asian and applied sciences; social and legal professions; 50% teaching. In and 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 60% addition, close to 40 percent of people in management occupations Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census (outside of food and retail management) have university degrees.

2025
Alberta Manitoba

2030

Korean Arab

2036

Canada
F I G U R E 2 7 : Students are responding to growing demand for knowledge workers in Canadas labour market

West Asian

Canada

Ontario Japanese
Filipino South Asian Chinese

7,000 6,000 5,000 45-to-54 years 4,000 25-to-29 years


45-to-54 years 25-to-29 years
Total Trades Primary Forestry, Agriculture, etc. Manufacturing Other Sales and Services Clerical and Secretaries Technical, administrative 2005and health support 2010 Management

ns 2009

Multiple visible minority

Latin American he number of full-time w strongly despite population Not a visible minority Black Southeast Asian

Thousands employed

F I GURE 3 0 : The demand for kn driven by employment growth require university education

3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1990 1995 High school or less University degree
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

Community Co

2000

Population age 18-21 Full-time bachelors enrolment age 18-21 FIGUR E 27 : Students are responding to growing demand for

Community College, Professionals CEGEP Art, Culture and Recreation Trade certi cate professionals
Health Professionals Engineers and Applied Scientists Social and Legal Professions Teachers and professors

Business and Finance

32 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment 7,000


Full-time bachelor's enrolment age 18-to-21 6,000

knowledge workers in Canadas labour market Population age 18-to-21

AUCC
0% 30%

-30%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Forc

FIGURE 28 : Canadas shifting employment market is creating more

demand for education within and across different occupations Employment changes in 1,000s, from 1990 to 2010
Manufacturing, trades and occupations in primary industry

Clerical, sales and service occupations

By comparison, there was a very different occupational mix in jobs filled by college graduates. Technical, administrative and health-support positions were by far the largest area of growth for college University degree graduates, followed by jobs in sales and services and trades occupations during the last 20 years. These areas were also Post-secondary certicate or diploma the only occupations that saw any real growth in jobs for high school less High school or graduates. Jobs for those who have not completed high school are declining rapidly. Employment in the remaining occupations typically requires less education. These occupations have experienced the least growth in the last 20 years. As demonstrated in Figure 30, there were significantly fewer people working in manufacturing and primary occupations such as forestry, agriculture and mining in 2010 than in 1990.
F IG U R E 29 : Since 2004, employment of university graduates

Technical, administrative and health support

Professional and management occupations

-800

-600

-400

-200

200

400

600

800 1,000 1,200 1,400

High school or less Postsecondary certicate or diploma


Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

University degree

has grown rapidly across Canada Employment changes between 2004 and 2010

+40+

to-39 35-39

-to-34

30-34 -to-29

25-29 -to-24 or younger 22-24

tics Canada imates

Over the last 20 years management occupations have been among the fastest-growing occupations in Canada. There were more than twice as many jobs in the social, legal professions and in engineering in 2010 compared to 1990, and business and finance professions grew by more than 95 percent. The number of positions in teaching, health professions and management occupations grew between 35 and 50 percent. Combined, there were 1.67 million more professional and management jobs in 2010 than in 1990 and 1.33 million were filled by university graduates. During the same period, there were an additional 550,000 jobs for university graduates in technical, administrative and health-support occupations. It is clear that the majority of job growth for university graduates is in high-skill occupations and there is no evidence of a growing over-qualification of university graduates in the workplace.23

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador Canada

Universi College
High school or less College or Trade University degree

High sch

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 33


F IG U R E 44 : University graduates contribute a disproportionately

TABLE 2: From 2004 to 2010, employment growth for university graduates outpaced other levels of education: 45-to-54 years

F I G U R E 3 0 : The demand for knowledge workers is being driven by employment growth in occupations that typically require university education
Total Trades Primary Forestry, Agriculture, etc. Manufacturing Other Sales and Services Clerical and Secretaries Technical, administrative and health support Management Business and Finance Professionals Art, Culture and Recreation professionals

4% 5%

25-to-29 for high school graduates; years

45-to-54 years

25-to-29 years

for trade school graduates; for college and CEGEP graduates;

17%
30% 40% 28% 50%

Proportion of employees with a university degree 2010 Employment change 1990 to 2010

for60% bachelors graduates; and for those with graduate degrees

us

33%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

onding to growing demand for as labour market

Even in western Canada, where the common perception is that the resource-based sector was driving job growth, in particular from 2004 to 2010, employment for university graduates grew at a much faster pace than for those who had not completed university studies. For example, 76 percent of new jobs in British Columbia were filled by university graduates, compared to 24 percent by college graduates. In Alberta, 58 percent of new jobs were filled by university graduates and 31 percent were filled by college graduates. In Saskatchewan, university graduates occupy 50 percent of new jobs, college graduates 31 percent, and those who have not completed any postsecondary hold approximately 8 percent.
Community College, CEGEP

Health Professionals Engineers and Applied Scientists Social and Legal Professions Teachers and professors

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

Thousands employed aged 50 or older

2000

orce Survey

In 2005 latest 10-year outlook, Human Resources and Skills its 2010 Development Canada projects that some 1.4 million new jobs will Community College, be CEGEP created over the 2008 to 2017 period as a result of economic Trade certi cate growth. Three-quarters of these jobs would require postsecondary education. HRSDC also projects that a further 4.1 million jobs will open up to replace those who will retire in that period; almost 70 percent will require postsecondary education. The report projects that the number of jobs in occupations usually requiring a university degree will grow much more quickly than other occupations an average of 1.6 percent per year for those with degrees versus about one percent or less per year for other jobs.24
in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

People are the heart of the innovation process Innovation F I U R E 3 1 : force, not labour demands will grow further relies on a skilledGlabourLooking ahead, only for high technology given the need to replace the number of people expected to retire and research sectors, but throughout the economy and society They generate the ideas and knowledge that power innovation, 800 In 1990, just 270,000 of all working university graduates and then apply this knowledge and the resulting technologies, 700 were age 50 or older By 2009, 1.13 million were products and services in the workplace and throughout society 600
50 plus a 4.2-fold increase over 1990

Gradua

Bachel

- OECD Innovation Strategy, 2010


400 300 200 100 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Bachelors Graduate degrees

500

By 2009, 1.13 - a 4.2-fold in

In 1990 just 2 of all working were age 50

2004

2006

2008

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey data

ket is creating more 34 | Trends t occupations

AUCC

The report also found that most of the occupations that faced 25-to-29 years shortages in 2005 were those that required a university degree. 45-to-54 years These 25-to-29 years included occupations in the natural and applied sciences, as well as several health, education and management occupations.
40% 50% 60%

45-to-54 years

There is increased recognition by governments that the key to sustained competitiveness, growth and prosperity is the ability of firms to innovate and adapt in a rapidly changing and highly globalized business environment. To thrive in such an environment, all sectors depend on high quality human capital as an essential source of skills, knowledge and ideas. Because universities are growing demand for market uniquely positioned to drive the formation of this type of human capital, the continued evolution towards a more innovative, knowledge-based economy will increase labour market demand for university-educated graduates. The growing recognition of the role of small- and medium-size enterprises in national economies also has the potential to drive growth in labour-market demand. Small, young, innovation-focused enterprises have the potential to grow rapidly, and university graduates are key contributors to the success of these enterprises. The OECD has recently highlighted how governments can facilitate Community College, CEGEP among SMEs by linking them with university knowledge 2005 growth 2010 and research flows, and ensuring they have access to highly skilled Community College, human capital.25 A recent U.K. study shows that SMEs that attracted CEGEP Trade certi cate university graduates have been growing much more quickly than those which did not hire graduates. As governments in Canada continue to encourage innovation and growth among SMEs, labourmarket demand for the linkages, skills, and knowledge that graduates can offer will continue to grow. This situation is not unique to SMEs. In public and private enterprises of all sizes, taking innovative approaches to organizing the workplace and developing products and services is increasingly recognized as vital to improving productivity and staying competitive.

Competitiveness will increasingly become a preoccupation of Total both the private and public sector in the years to come, as Canada Trades Primary Forestry, Proportion of employees baby prepares for a demographic shift that will see with a boomers retire Agriculture, etc. university degree 2010 from the workplace. From 2010 to 2030, the population over the Manufacturing Employment change 1990 to 2010 Other Sales and age of 65 will double, resulting in greater demand for services Services Clerical and financial, social and health to support this aging population. During Secretaries Technical, administrative that time, population growth alone will not generate significant and health support Management labour Business and Finance force increases, especially in the latter half of the period, Professionals to meet the demand created by this demographic shift.26 Under Art, Culture and Recreation professionals Statistics Canadas medium population growth scenario, there would be Health Professionals Engineers and only eight percent more adults aged 25-to-64 over the next 20 years Applied Scientists Social and Legal compared to a 30 percent increase in this working age population Professions Teachers and in the past 20 years. For the Canadian economy to grow, the labour professors force-30% need to grow in both60% and productivity. 150% will size 90% 0% 30% 120%
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

F I G U R E 3 0 : The demand for knowledge workers is being driven by employment growth in occupations that typically require university education

While the number of retirements overall will increase, the outlook for Canadas economy is further exacerbated by the rapid increase in the number of highly experienced and productive graduates who

F I G U R E 3 1 : Looking ahead, labour demands will grow further given the need to replace the number of people expected to retire

Thousands employed aged 50 or older

800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

In 1990, just 270,000 of all working university graduates were age 50 or older By 2009, 1.13 million were 50 plus a 4.2-fold increase over 1990

Graduate degrees Bachelor's

By 2009, 1.13 million we - a 4.2-fold increase ove Bachelors Graduate degrees

In 1990 just 270,000 of all working university were age 50 or older

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey data

ng more ons

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 35

eating more ations

If Canada is to maintain, if not raise the standard of living of its population in both absolute and relative terms, it will need to raise the educational requirements in its labour market.
Ratio of dependent population to those of working age (20-64)

F I G U R E 3 2 : Canadas dependency ratio is beginning to grow, but will remain at low levels over the coming decade

~Special Report: Postsecondary education is a smart route for a brighter future for Canadians, TD Bank
University degree Postsecondary certificate or diploma High school graduate Did not complete high school

0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1980

A window of opportunity exits to invest in postsecondary education before health costs of the population 75-plus rise dramatically

Total (0-19 and

Senior (age 65

Youth ratio (0-

600%

900%

ey

diploma

will retire from the labour force. In 1990, there were just 270,000 1200% 1500% jobs filled by university graduates 50 years of age or older. By 2009, there were 1.1 million university graduates working who were 50 years of age or older. If growth in the economy cannot be driven by increasing the size of the labour force, it is clear that the labour force must become more productive. Losing these highly skilled baby boomers at a time when demography will constrain overall growth in the labour force reinforces the productivity imperative to enhance the quality of learning experiences for todays students so that they can become more productive employees of the future. Canadas dependency ratios the number of people in the normal working age compared to those in the younger and older age groups are set to grow substantially over the next 30 years. However, there remains a window of opportunity to invest in the capacity and quality of education in Canada before the costs of caring for our aging society rise dramatically. Canadians are not alone in preparing for these demographic pressures and striving to become more productive; this is a reality for many countries around the world. Increasing productivity to drive economic growth is a goal for many nations, so competition to enhance the quantity and quality of education systems is expected to intensify.

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Total (0-19 and age 65 plus compared to 20-64) Youth ratio (0-19 compared to 20-64) Senior (age 65 and over compared to 20- 64)
Source: Statistics Canada

The OECD notes that similar labour market shifts are occurring around the globe. Recent research in the 2010 Innovation Strategy by the OECD shows the growth in demand for highly skilled and educated workers. Based on global trends and forecasts, it is reasonable to assume that the growth of the knowledge-based economy and the labour market demands it generates for highly skilled and talented graduates will continue to influence university participation rates into the future.27

36 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

$20,000 Annual Costs

Nowhere are the costs of caring for our aging society more evident than in health care. The Canadian or less High school Institute for Health Information estimates that health-care costs escalate quickly from age 70 onwards. College or Trade Per capita health care expenditures for Canadians between the ages 0.3% 0.4% of one and 34 are, on average, $1,500, rising to $3,600 for 35-to-74 University Degree year olds. Over the age of 75, health-care expenditures rise to between University degree $10,000 and $23,000 per capita annually.28 As the first baby boomers post-graduate begin to retire in 2011, there remains a window of opportunity to invest in postsecondary education over the next decade and drive the kind of long-term productivity and innovative products and services needed to meet and control future health care costs.

Demand for graduate education

$15,000

Currently, Canadian universities award proportionally fewer masters $10,000 and PhD degrees than is common in several OECD countries. When compared to the U.S., Canada awards one-third fewer PhDs and only $5,000 half the number of masters degrees per capita. At the PhD level, Canada trails well behind most G8 countries in the number of PhDs $0 less 1-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 54-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ awardedthan 1 annually on a per-capita basis. Yet labour market demand for employees withInstitute for Health Information continues to increase. The Source: Canadian graduate education number of jobs for those with graduate degrees grew from 600,000 in 1990 to more than 1.3 million in 2009.

FIG U R E 3 3 : Per capita health care costs rise dramatically for

F I G U R E 3 4 : The Canadian labour market is generating a growing demand for graduate degrees

those over the age of 70

Employed 15 years or older (thousands)

1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0


Income relative to men with a high school diploma 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2000 0% increased signicantly between 1980 and 2005

$25,000

F I G U RE 3 7 : The earnings advantage for male university grad

$20,000 Annual Costs

workers is being $15,000 tions that typically


$10,000

Employed part-time Graduate degree holders employed full-time Graduate degree holders Employed full-time employed part-time

of employees with a $5,000 degree 2010

nt change 1990 to 2010

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2002

2004

2006

2008

$0

less 1-34 than 1

35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 54-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89

90+

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

-10% -20% 2000

Source: Canadian Institute for Health Information

90%

ears or older (thousands)

All levels of government across Canada are cognizant of the shifting demography. As Figure 33 illustrates, health-care costs for a growing number of Canadians over the age of 70 threatens to overwhelm FIG U R E 3 4 : The Canadian labour market is generating a provincial budgets unlessgraduate is sufficient future economic growth. growing demand for there degrees That kind of economic growth cannot be achieved solely through 1,200 120% 150% growth in the labour force; it also requires an increase in the productivity of 1,000 labour force. the
AUCC
800 600 Employed part-time Graduate degree holders employed full-time

1980 1985 1990 1995 Canada has become increasingly reliant on immigration to meet its needs for graduates of masters and doctoral programs. Since 1990, Less than high degree Postgraduate school the number of immigrants coming to Canada diplomahad completed who College and degree F G U R E 3 5 : has expanded rapidly. The toLess than of masters Canada university Istudies Since 1990, the number of immigrantsnumber high school diploma Bachelor's trade diploma College and trade diploma with graduate degrees has grown rapidly graduates has increased five-fold from about 5,000 in 1990 to Source: Boudarbat, Lemieux, Riddell 2010 30,000 25,000 in 2008. Doctoral graduates have increased from 1,500 in 1990 to 4,600 in 2008. To put these numbers in perspective, Canadian Master's 25,000 universities awarded PhD 37,000 masters degrees and 5,500 doctorates in20,000 2008.

Bachelor's degr

Postgraduate d

15,000 10,000

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 37


PhD

10,000 5,000 0 In an increasingly competitive global 2002 2004 2006it will be more 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 environment 2008 difficult to continue toCitizenship and Immigration Canada skilled immigrants Source: Statistics Canada, attract as many highly to Canada. A greater share of Canadas labour-market needs will have to be met through increasing enrolment in Canada.

PhD Master's

nds will grow further f people expected to retire


FIGURE 3 5 : Since 1990, the number of immigrants to Canada

with graduate degrees has grown rapidly Graduate degrees 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 Bachelors 10,000 Graduate degrees 5,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 0 1990 By 2009, 1.13 million were 50 plus - a 4.2-fold increase over 1990 In 1990 just 270,000 of all working university graduates were age 50 or older PhD Master's Bachelor's Master's PhD

F I G U R E 3 6 : The U.S. awards proportionately twice as many masters degrees and one-third more PhDs annually than does Canada

25

20 Ratio U.S. : Canada

ce Survey data

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

15

Populat

Source: Statistics Canada, Citizenship and Immigration Canada

10

U.S. PhD

Immigration has been and will continue to be an important source supplying labour force growth. But immigration alone will not be sufficient to meet the demand in Canadas labour market. Many of the FIGURE graduates Canada has been able to attract do international 3 6 : The U.S. awards proportionately twice as many masters not have s beginning to grow, degrees and one-third more PhDs annually than does Canada oming decade all of the skills needed to utilize their previous education in Canada. That has and will continue to create a growing need for additional 25 Total (0-19 and age 65 plus compared to 20-64) vest education and training once these new immigrants arrive in Canada. Over the coming decade, demography to 20-64) a different impact on will have Youth ratio (0-19 compared graduate enrolment than on undergraduate enrolment. By 2020, the 15 22-to-39 year-old cohort (the primary drivers of graduate enrolment)29 will10 have grown significantly, and a greater number will possess bachelors degrees. Combined with the expected growth in labour 5 market demand for masters and doctoral graduates, this is likely to drive the demand for graduate education in the coming decade.
0 2030 2040 1990 1992 2050 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
U.S. master's per Canadian degree U.S. PhDs per Canadian PhD Population aged 25-29
Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data and the National Center for Education Statistics data

U.S. mas

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

U.S. master's per Canadian degree U.S. PhDs per Canadian PhD Population aged 25-29
Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data and the National Center for Education Statistics data

us

20

Senior (age 65 and over compared to 20- 64)

Ratio U.S. : Canada

Population aged 25-29 per Canadian

2020

pared to 20-64)

0-64)

ed to 20- 64)

In some fields, including health specialties, business and international relations, the expansion of graduate programs would help universities U.S. master's per Canadian degree meet already high student demand. In other new and emerging fields, such as nanotechnology and environmental studies, the creation and expansion of graduate programs would help Canadian universities bridge the degree completion gap with the U.S. and other G8 peers. Again, growth in demand from both students and employers is likely to put upward pressure on universities to expand their graduate programs.
U.S. PhDs per Canadian PhD

38 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

The value of a university degree


The value of a university degree can be measured by the private and public benefits it brings to the holder, his or her family, community, workplace and Canada. Labour market trends also send important signals to students and their parents about the value of a university degree to the Canadian economy. They condition perceptions of the value of a degree and influence critical investment decisions among many partners in our society: students, their parents, educators, governments and employers.

While a degree is of great value beyond the role graduates play in our labour force, it is nevertheless clear that students respond r capita health care costs rise dramatically for e age of 70 to labour-market signals. Students generally give adequate consideration to the extent to which education investments will benefit them personally (private benefits), such as the prospect of earning a higher income, confronting fewer and shorter periods of unemployment, and the ability to pursue a desired career path. However, students are not always aware of, nor do they typically consider the extent of the impact of their education on others (public benefits). These include: living a healthier and longer life, contributing to the productivity of co-workers, and being more socially and politically engaged in all aspects of society. Economists refer to this type of market failure as the prime reason for government investments in higher education. Without proper 39 40-44 45-49 50-54 54-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ incentives from government, students will not make optimal enrolment decisions. nstitute for Health Information
Private returns of a university education

Several Canadian researchers30 have used Census data to quantify income advantage between university graduates and high school graduates. One of the more recent studies compares data from the last six Censuses, and shows that the income advantage for male and female bachelors graduates grew significantly between 1980 and 2006. The Boudarbat, Lemieux and Riddell study (2010) shows that in 1980, the income advantage for male bachelors graduates was 37 percent greater than high school graduates. By 2005, the income advantage had grown to 50 percent (much of this increase took place from 1995 to 2005). Researchers also noted an income advantage for college and trade school graduates over the same period, but it was much smaller, approximately seven percent in 1980, up to 15 percent in 2005.31
F I G U R E 3 7 : The earnings advantage for male university graduates increased signicantly between 1980 and 2005

70% Income relative to men with a high school diploma 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Bachelor's degree Postgraduate degree 2005

Less than high degree Postgraduate school diploma College and degree Less than trade diploma Bachelor'shigh school diploma College and trade diploma
Source: Boudarbat, Lemieux, Riddell 2010

Education is a critical factor in ones earning potential. There are three principal private returns for individuals with a university e Canadian labour market is generating a and for graduate degrees education: they have a higher income advantage, are less likely to experience long periods of low income, and are less likely to experience labour disruptions. When they do experience labour disruptions, it is typically for much shorter periods of time.
AUCC
Employed part-time Graduate degree holders employed full-time

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 39

A high quality learning experience produces more engaged and productive students, who, upon graduation, become Canadas future lawyers, doctors, teachers, thinkers, scientists, managers, leaders and innovators.

40 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

than the advantage for males 100% Income relative to women with a high school diploma 80% 60%

Postgra

This presents an important implication for male enrolments. As noted earlier in this document, men comprise only about 42 percent of bachelors students. If males respond now to the income and F I G U RE 37 : The earnings advantage for male university graduates increased signicantly labour 1980 and 2005 other between market signals the way that women did in the 1970s and 1980s, the recent growth in their income advantage and the relative decline in low-skill manual jobs could drive more rapid increases in enrolment demand by men over the coming decade. The study also found that while the income advantage was systematically higher for women than men, it did not grow as substantially over the same period. In 1980, the income advantage for women with a bachelors degree was 57 percent, and increased to 66 percent in 2005. The income advantage for women with a college degree grew from 13 percent in 1980 to 16 percent in 2005.
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
FIGURE 38 : The earnings advantage for female university Less than high degree Bachelor's degree Postgraduate school graduates increased between 1980 and 2005, and remains higher diploma than the advantage for males Postgraduate degree College and degree Less than high school diploma Bachelor's trade diploma College and trade diploma 100%

Bachelo The 2006 Census also identified the country in which the highest 40% College level of education was attained. It is now possible to distinguish between the incomes of graduates who earned their degrees from 20% Less tha a Canadian university compared to those who earned their degrees 0% abroad. This is important, given that a relatively large and growing -20% number of university graduates immigrated to Canada after earning their degrees abroad, and because the incomes of these recent -40% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 immigrants are lower than those of their Canadian counterparts. Including the income of all graduates in income comparisons Bachelor's degree Less than high school diploma understates the value of degrees earned in Canada. Therefore, the returns identified inCollegeBoudarbat, Lemieux and Riddell study the and trade diploma Graduate degree would have been higher and the advantage would have grown even Source: Boudarbat, Lemieux, Riddell 2010 more over time if the researchers had been able to differentiate the incomes of graduates of Canadian universities. F I GURE 4 2 : University graduates are fa

to experience long periods of low inco


F I G U R E 3 9 : Graduates educated in Canada earn signicantly higher premia than peers educated outside Canada

Income relative to women with a high school diploma

Source: Boudarbat, Lemieux, Riddell 2010

80% 60% 40% 20% 0%

Income difference relative to high school graduates

Earned doctorate Postgraduate degree Masters degree Bachelor's degree

Three or more years of low income

Earned outside

Earned in Cana

College and trade diploma Less than high school diploma


Total college or CEGEP Registered apprenticeship certificate Trades certificate or diploma Bachelors degree

One or two years of low income

-20% -40% 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Earned outside Canada Earned in Canada 0% 5%


University degree

10%

Less than high school diploma College and trade diploma


Source: Boudarbat, Lemieux, Riddell 2010

Bachelor's degree Graduate degree

Som degr

-25%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

125% Non-university with certi cate or diploma

Grad

Less

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and

AUCC

FIGURE 3 9 : Graduates educated in Canada earn signicantly higher premia than peers educated outside Canada

Trends in Higher Education | VolumeF I1. Enrolment | 41 GURE 4 3 : In 2009, unemployment r


dramatically for those who had not

For example, bachelors graduates working full-time on average earned $71,000 in 2005 compared to about $41,000 for high school and trade school graduates, $51,000 for registered apprentices, and $48,000 per year for other college and CEGEP graduates. Earnings for those with graduate degrees were higher still: approximately $89,000 for those with a masters degree, $94,000 for doctoral graduates, and an average of $152,000 for medical doctors, dentists and veterinarians. As Figure 39 illustrates, these differences are all significantly higher than those of graduates educated abroad. This higher advantage further enhances the lifetime earnings advantage for Canadian-educated graduates. Typically, income increases rapidly in the early stages of ones career (between the age of 25 and 34), and then flattens. University graduates generally see their income increase more rapidly at the outset of their career and for a longer period during their career than those with less education. In fact, the Census illustrates the income advantage for university graduates widens quite significantly with

age and experience, compared to all other education levels. For example, the average income for those with university degrees bachelors, masters or PhDs was more than twice the Canadian average income for high school graduates working full-time between the ages of 55 and 64. Over the course of a 40-year working life, the accumulated average income advantage for a bachelors graduate is about $1.3 million above the earnings of the typical high school graduate.32 This income advantage between a university graduate and a high school graduate reflects the higher value that employers place on employees with additional education. Statistics Canadas annual Labour Force Survey confirms that, even during the recession in 2008 and 2009, the relative income advantage for university graduates had been maintained since the release of the 2006 Census. Of course not every graduate can expect to accumulate these kinds of advantages. Average income varies widely across different areas

TABLE 3 : Canadian university graduates have a greater lifetime earning advantage

Level of education

Average annual earnings (2005)

Accumulated income advantage over high school graduate Baseline Comparator $ $ $ $ $ $ $ (70,000) 340,000 280,000 1,320,000 1,800,000 1,830,000 4,260,000

High school certificate or equivalent Trades certificate or diploma Registered Apprenticeship certificate Total College or CEGEP Bachelors degree (s) (including LL.B.) Masters degree (s) Earned doctorate Medical, dental, veterinary medicine or optometry
Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census of Population

$ $ $ $ $ $ $ $

41,200 40,600 51,000 48,200 71,300 89,000 94,200 151,600

42 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

Average earning

Unemployment rates by edu

Income difference relative to high school

Masters degree

16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 55-to-64 years 6%

$40,000 $20,000 $0

Registered

Bachelors degree

Trades cert

High schoo

of specialization. In 2005, the average income for a bachelors Total college or CEGEP graduate in the visual and performing Earnedwas approximately arts outside Canada $45,000, while average income for bachelors Canada Registered Earned in graduates in apprenticeship engineering and applied sciences was a little more than $90,000. certificate Similar differences exist across disciplines for college and CEGEP Trades certificate or diploma graduates. The lowest earnings for college or CEGEP graduates -25% 0% 75% 100% 125% in visual and performing25% education and social sciences were arts, 50% Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census around $40,000. The highest average earnings were close to $60,000, and were in engineering and related technologies. At the same time, while lower paying disciplines are still higher than the incomes of high school graduates, it is important to note that income is not the ultimate motivation for all students. Many are motivated by intrinsic values, such as the love for music or the arts.
FIGURE 40 : The earning premium for a university graduate educated in Canada increases with age and work experience

University graduates are far less likely than individuals with less education to experience any period of low income.Apprenticeship to From 2002 Master's degree Registered 4% certi cate 2007, 89 percent of university graduates had not had any years with 2% Total College or Bachelor's degree CEGEP low income. This compares to fewer than 80 percent of individuals 0% Earned doctorate 1990 1992 Trades certi cate who had not completed any postsecondary studies and 83 percent 1994 1996 1998 or diploma of those who had competed certi cate or trade certificates. Five percent Some secondary High school college or equivalent of people who had gone beyond high school had persistent low University degree bachelors Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 of income levels, while two percentCensuscollege or trade graduates and just 1.1 percent of university graduates had persistently low incomeCanada, Labour Force Su Source: Statistics levels lasting over a period of five or six years.
25-to-34 years 35-to-44 years 45-to-54 years

University graduates are also less likely to confront labour F I GURE disruptions. They have lower unemployment rates both in strong XX : University gradu
FIGURE 41 : Average income varies widely by area of specialization for graduates from Canadian postsecondary institutions

large share a income taxes an government transfers

Average earnings full-time, full-year work

% of income tax
Average income full-time, full year work, 2005

$120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $0

Earned doctorate Master's degree

$100,000 Bachelors income College CEGEP income

$80,000

% of government transfers

Bachelor's degree Total College or CEGEP % of earnings Registered Apprenticeship certi cate $40,000 Trades certi cate or diploma
$20,000 $60,000

High school certi cate or equivalent 25-to-34 years 35-to-44 years 45-to-54 years 55-to-64 years
Education Business, management and public administration Visual and performing arts, and communications technologies Humanities Total Major field of study Social and behavioural sciences and law Physical and life sciences and technologies

% of persons

Agriculture, natural resources and conservation

Mathematics, computer and information sciences

Architecture, engineering, and related technologies

0%

Health, parks, recreation and fitness

Personal, protective and transportation services

$0

10%

20

Master's degree Total College or CEGEP Trades certi cate or diploma High school certi cate or equivalent
Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

Registered Apprenticeship certi cate Bachelor's degree Earned doctorate

Less than high schoo

Some postsecondary

Trades , vocatioanl, a

Source: Statistics Canada, 2006 Census

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 43

of low income

1995

2000

2005

and poor economic times. When they do become unemployed, the duration is usually shorter than for others in the labour Bachelor's degree iploma force. The recent economic slowdown was particularly difficult ma Graduate degree on the employment prospects of those who have not completed university studies. Between 2008 and 2010, there were 433,000 010 fewer jobs for those who had not completed a postsecondary degree compared to almost 300,000 more jobs for university graduates and approximately 78,000 more jobs for college graduates. As a result, nada earn signicantly unemployment rates increased across all levels of education, while utside Canada they rose much more dramatically for those with less education.
Earned outside Canada

The substantial and growing income advantage of earning a degree Some postsecondary without University degree from a Canadian university, combined with or diploma degree, certi cate the reduced likelihood Non-university with of low incomehigh school Graduated and confronting labour of experiencing periods certi cate or diploma disruptions, is likely to drive greater demand for a university education, Less than high school both from domestic and international students. These benefits Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1999 to 2004 are likely to positively influence university participation rates into the future.
F I G U R E 4 3 : In 2009, unemployment rates increased more dramatically for those who had not completed a university degree

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

20% Unemployment rates by education 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0%

Unemployment rates by education

Earned in Canada
F I GU RE 4 2 : University graduates are far less likely

to experience long periods of low income

University deg

Earned outside Canada of low income Earned in Canada

Three or more years

University deg

High school g 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Some second

Some secondary

75%

100%

125%

University degree postgraduate High school graduate

Proportion of 45-to-54 year-olds with a university degree

One or two years of low income

University degree bachelors


Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey

0%

5%
University degree Non-university with certi cate or diploma

10%

15%

20%
F I G U R E XX : University graduates contribute a disproportionately

Some postsecondary without degree, certi cate or diploma Graduated high school Less than high school

large share a income taxes and receive a smaller share of government transfers

for a university graduate h age and work experience

Less than % of income tax

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1999 to 2004

Graduate

Earned doctorate Master's degree

Some pos

Trades , v % of government transfers

44 | Trends in Higher Education Bachelor's degree Enrolment | Volume 1.


Total College Unemployment rates by education or CEGEP

F I GU R E 4 3 : In 2009, unemployment rates increased more

dramatically for those who had not completed a university degree

AUCC

Commun

Universit

F IG U RE 2 9 : Since 2004, employment of university graduates

up

Public returns of a university education


40+40+ 35-to-39 35-39 30-to-34 30-34 25-to-29

If the private returns are so significant, why is government investment needed to ensure a more optimal level of participation in higher education? Economic literature identifies several different types of market failures that impact the provision and participation level in higher education.

Government investments also promote equity by enhancing Employment changes between education opportunities for all citizens to pursue 2004 and 2010 that will bring personal benefits and help them achieve personal goals. This British Columbia Alberta in turn promotes social mobility and cohesion, while reducing Saskatchewan health care costs. crime rates and
Manitoba Ontario

has grown rapidly across Canada

High school or less College or Trade

First, investments in education are risky. The benefits accrue to the 25-29 student several years into the future. Students get mixed messages 22-to-24 in the information about the costs and benefits, creating uncertainty 21 or younger 22-24 about the returns they can expect. There are up-front tuition costs and even more significantly, the opportunity cost by choosing not to e: Statistics Canada AUCC estimates work. There are also credit constraints for students who want to go, but who do not have the personal or family income required, and who cannot get the necessary loans required. Secondly, graduates do not personally capture all of the financial returns that their education helps to generate for others and the economy. The skills, knowledge and expertise of graduates spill over to enhance the outputs of other, less-educated workers. Those same skills and the graduates ability to adapt and learn on the job help make them more innovative and productive, which directly contributes to the competitiveness of their companies, and 30 plus drives economic growth. 25-to-29 Third, there are several other types of returns that the individual 22-to-24 investor will not normally consider when deciding on an educational 18-to-21 versus a career pathway. They are often unaware that pursing and completing a Total will help them to: degree lead healthier and longer lives; smoke and abuse drugs and alcohol to a lesser degree; be more socially active through volunteering, and more 2040actively engaged in social and political activities; and, transfer or promote educational, health and social values to their children and their childrens children.
AUCC

Finally, because of their higher incomes and a generally progressive Quebec University degree tax system, university graduates pay a disproportionately large New Brunswick share of Nova Scotia taxes. Because they are healthier and more highly income employed, they draw a relatively small level of transfers from Prince Edward Island Newfoundland the publicLabrador For example, college and university graduates purse. and Canada comprise virtually the same proportion of 25-to-64 year olds in -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% the Canadian population: 23 percent and 24 percent respectively.50% Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey College graduates generate approximately 22 percent of all earnings in the economy, contribute 20 percent of tax revenues and draw approximately 22 percent of transfers from the public purse. In essence, they pay their own way. By comparison, university graduates generate the highest public economic benefits. Their collective income represents 37 percent of all earnings in the
F IG U R E 4 4 : University graduates contribute a disproportionately

ct on will lead

large share of income taxes and receive a smaller share of government transfers

University graduation

% of income tax
Community college, CEGEP Trades, vocational, apprenticeship Graduated high school Less than high school

% of government transfers % of persons

2035 22-to-24

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Source: Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, 2008

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 45

TABLE 4 : Education generates broader benefits to society and the economy

33

Broader benefits to society and the economy Dynamic impacts through innovation, knowledge creation and economic growth Knowledge spillovers to help increase skills and productivity of less-educated workers Reduced crime, increased civic participation, improved health, intergenerational benefits passed on to children Social benefits associated with paying proportionally higher taxes Total
Source: Riddell, 2004

Rates of return 1 to 2 percentage points

1 to 2 percentage points 3 to 4 percentage points 2 percentage points 7 to 10 percentage points

economy; they generate 44 percent of revenues collected through income tax and only receive 16 percent of all transfers. It is this surplus that enables the provision of public services for those with less education. Recent research, primarily U.S.-based and utilizing natural experiments, also supports the case for a causal link between education and broader social benefits. Riddell summaries are presented in Table 4. The combined impact of this new research leads Riddell to conclude that the social benefits are of a similar order of magnitude to the private benefits, seven to 10 percent, thereby justifying government investment in education. Riddell does caution that many of the newer studies are primarily U.S.-based and that the impacts in Canada might be slightly lower. Furthermore, many of the natural experiments were at the secondary level and these results may not apply as strongly for postsecondary studies. But he goes on to
46 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

highlight that the clearest evidence of positive social benefits from postsecondary education is that associated with growth enhancing effects from technological change, and innovation and knowledge spillovers from more educated workers.34 Governments across Canada have increased their investments in universities over the last 10 to 15 years. The public benefits and the ongoing labour market needs provide the impetus for further public investments.
Family-based influences and income

Much research has been conducted on family-based influences and the impact they have on a students decision to attend university. Research demonstrates that variables with the greatest impact on university participation rates are: household income, parental education and the students high school grades.

AUCC

Total College or CEGEP % of earnings Registered Apprenticeship certi cate Trades certi cate or diploma High school certi cate or equivalent % of persons

Studies conducted on the relationship between family income years 55-to-64 years and access to university education conclude that there is a strong stered Apprenticeship link between these two factors.35 The Youth in Transition Survey cate (YITS) and the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics36 have both chelor's degree shown that youth from families with incomes above $100,000 are ned doctorate twice as likely to attend university compared to those with parental incomes below $25,000. In fact, Statistics Canadas YITS shows 60 percent of youth from high-income backgrounds have attended university (or at least have taken a course) by age 21, compared to 30 percent of their peers from low-income backgrounds. However, several studies suggest that parental education has a greater influence on participation rates than income.37 According to YITS data, each additional year of schooling for either parent will increase university participation rates by 6.3 percentage points.38

45 and 54 years of age held a university degree, compared to less than 10 percent in 20% mid 1980s. the 0% 10% 30% 40% 50%
Less than high school Graduated high The proportion of adults aged 35-to-44school a university degree with Some postsecondary Community college, CEGEP 28 percent in 2009. increased from 18 percent in 1999 to more than Consequently, the share of adults who have a university degree in Trades , vocatioanl, apprenticeship University graduation the older 45-to-54 cohort the group most likely to have children of university age will continue to rise significantly over the coming decade. The growing proportion of adults with university degrees will drive further increases in enrolment demand as they influence the academic decisions of their children.40

F IG U R E 4 5 : Parents educational attainment and income impact

the chances of children attending university


Highest educational attainment of father or mother and parental income

f specialization for s

Academic preparation and grades in secondary school also have a stronger link to university participation rates than financial barriers. The study shows that differences in factors such as standardized test scores in reading obtained at age 15, school marks reported at age 15, parental influences, and high school quality account for 84 percent of the gap. In contrast, only 12 percent of the gap is related to financial constraints.39 It is therefore not the incomes of parents that make the biggest difference, but the parental involvement. Bachelor's income
College CEGEP income None of these studies suggest that income does not play a role. Indeed, differences in family income may also be linked to what are often labeled cultural barriers. For example, academic preparation, parental values and support of their childrens education may well be linked themselves to family income.
Health, parks, recreation and fitness Personal, protective and transportation services

Postgraduate Bachelor's Trade/College High school graduate Less than high school $100,00 or more $75,000 to $100,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $25,000 to $50,000 $25,000 or less

Agriculture, natural resources and conservation

Mathematics, computer and information sciences

Architecture, engineering, and related technologies

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Source: Statistics Canada, Youth in Transition Survey, Cycle 4

The 2006 Census and Statistics Canadas 2009 Labour Force Survey both confirm that the proportion of adults who have completed a university degree is much higher in this generation than for adults in the preceding generation. In 2009, 21 percent of adults between
Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 47

AUCC

FIGUR E 49 : Since 1990, there has been a 10-fold increase FIGURE 46 : The growing educational attainment of adults aged 45-to-54

should drive further growth in university participation 30% Proportion of 45-to-54 year-olds with a university degree 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011e 2016e
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Census

First implemented in Regent Park in Toronto, the program includes 1.8 tutoring in five core subjects four nights a week, group mentoring 1.6 for grade 9 and 10 students, career mentoring for grade 11 and Constant 2010 $ 12 students, financial 1.4 support tied to attendance in the program, Current $ 1.2 bursaries upon entering postsecondary education, and support1.0 workers which help connect teens, parents, teachers, school 0.8 administrators and community agencies. The results from this 0.6 program have been remarkable:
($) Billions 0.4 0.2 High school drop-out rates have declined from 56 percent 0.0 to 12 percent; About 93 percent of eligible youth in the community are Source: AUCC participating in this program; using Statistics Canada data About 80 percent of graduates from the program go on to college or university, upFIGUR E 5020 percent; and debt doubled between from : Undergraduate student Fewer than five percent1990 and 2000, thengraduates do not of Pathways stabilized over the last decade complete their degree.41 $30,000

in university support for scholarships and bursaries

19

20

20

19

19

19

19

20

20

96

00

04

80

84

88

92

08

10

-9

-0

-0

-8

-8

-8

-9

-0

-1

1e

These studies also raise considerable concerns about the potential I GURE 47 : rates have of needs-basedFstudent High school drop-outdecades more equal participation aid programs to drive declined signicantly during the last two rates. To have a real impact on the proportion of low-income students in university programs, aid programs need to focus on more than Canada financial assistance delivered at the time of acceptance and entry to British Columbia university. They need to address the full range of factors that Alberta begin to affect potential higher education students much earlier on Saskatchewan in their education. In 2008, the Manitoba Centre for Health Policy Manitoba released an update to the 2004 Manitoba Child Health Atlas which Ontario demonstrated that high school completion rates were much higher Quebec for the highest income level neighbourhoods. In rural areas, there wasNew14 percentage point gap between high school graduation rates a Brunswick Nova Scotia of lowest and highest income quintile neighbourhoods. In urban Prince Edward areas the Island disparity was even greater at 36 percentage points.
0% 5% 10% 15% As a result, targeted access programs such as The Pathways to 20% Education Program are being developed to assist young people from 2007 at-risk or economically to 2010 disadvantaged1990 to 1993 communities in staying in high school, graduating Canada moving on to postsecondary education. Source: Statistics and
Newfoundland and Labrador

$25,000 After its initial success in Toronto, the program expanded to other communities across Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. To support $20,000 the expansion, the federal government allocated $20 million in $15,000 Constant and Budget 2010. Many other private-sector companies, provincial 2010 $ Current municipal governments, and non-governmental organizations$have $10,000 also partnered with this program in order to increase the access of $5,000 disadvantaged youth to postsecondary education.
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006-07 Similar programs also exist which target specific cohorts which 2009-10 NGS NGS NGS NGS CUSC CUSC Source: AUCC using campuses. For are under-represented on Canadian Statistics Canada data example, lE,nonET was a four-year pilot program from 2004 to 2008 2007 to 2010 that offered financial, academic and cultural support to Aboriginal 1990 to 1993 at the University of Victoria in British Columbia. students E 51 : Growth in government operating The programs goal was FIGURhelped drive full-time enrolment students 1997 to ensure that Aboriginal growthrevenues have since got to university and had the best chance of succeeding. 12 lE,nonET included:

$0

900 800 Students (thousands) 700 600

stant 2010 $ (billions)

10 8 6 4

48 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment


F I GURE 48 : Tuition fees vary widely across Canada

AUCC
Government Funding Full-time students

500 400 300

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

2006

2011e

2016e

Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Census

University degree - post-graduate University degree - bachelor's

Bursaries of up to $2,000 for First Nations, Mtis or Inuit students (these are still available); Peer mentoring to ease the transition to university; Research apprenticeships which provided the opportunity to participate in hands-on academic research; and, Staff and faculty cultural training to support Aboriginal students.

F IGURE 47 : High school drop-out rates have declined signicantly during the last two decades

Canada British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba Ontario Quebec New Brunswick Nova Scotia Prince Edward Island Newfoundland and Labrador

This program has been instrumental in breaking down social High school graduate and cultural barriers for Aboriginal students at the University Some secondary of Victoria, and increasing their learning skills in order to better succeed during their university studies.42 lE,nonET identified a number of key principles in supporting success and was one of the first programs to be able to empirically measure changes in success. The lessons learned from this pilot project and other successful university programs43 are being shared with institutions across the country. Both the federal and provincial governments (the latter through the Council of Ministers of Education, Canada and the Council of the Federation) have identified the goal of broadening Less than high school university access to students from under-represented groups including low-income students, Aboriginal students and children Graduated high school of recent immigrants. Some measures are already in place, and to Some postsecondary the extent that they and similar programs are successful, they Trades , vocatioanl, apprenticeship will create greater demand for university education and upward Community college, CEGEP pressure on university participation rates.44 These types of programs have also contributed to a significant decline of high school drop-out rates across Canada. Over the last two decades, the drop-out rate fell from 16.6 percent at the beginning of the 1990s to just 8.5 percent of 20-to-24 year-olds not completing high school between 2007 and 2010. This has created a bigger pool
50% University graduation

0%

5% 2007 to 2010

10% 1990 to 1993

15%

20%

Source: Statistics Canada

from which universities draw their students. While some further growth can be achieved, future improvements will not provide the IGURE 48 : scale of growthF that hasTuition fees vary widely across Canada two decades. been achieved over the last
Full-time students at degree granting institutions

As projects and programs such as Pathways to Education Canada demonstrate, more can be done to change the aspiration levels of Newfoundland and Labrador students from traditionally under-represented groups. Creating Prince Edward Island capacity and support for these students will help them achieve their Nova Scotia new-found aspirations for additional education as more of them New Brunswick complete high school.
Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

2010 2000 1990 1980

AUCC

$1,000

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 49


$2,000 $3,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000

tion

Canada British Columbia Alberta

$20,000 $15,000 $10,000 Constant 2010 $ Current $

Tuition and student aid Manitoba

Saskatchewan

FIGURE 48 : Tuition fees vary widely across Canada

2010
Full-time students at degree granting institutions
Canada Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia

2000 1990 1980

Constant 2010 $ (billions)

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

$1,000 2010

$2,000 2000

$3,000

$4,000 1990

$5,000 1980

$6,000

$7,000

Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Tuition and Living Accomodation

Government grants, private sector and university scholarships help offset tuition and other costs of attending university. In the last decade, there were major changes in the levels of federally funded grant support. The Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation, which provided student grants up to $3,000 per student at the outset of the decade, is now winding down. The last full cohort of recipients was awarded grants in 2008-2009. In 2009-2010 CMSF grants were replaced by the Canada Student Grants Program, which has two components. The first is a $2,000 grant per academic FIGURE 52 : Canadian universities score signicantly lower than U.S. peers in year for full-time studentsand collaborative learning families. Low-income active from low-income families are defined as having a combined total income of less 50 than $41,000. The second component is an $800 grant per academic year for students from middle-income families. For this program, a 40 middle-income family is defined as having a combined total income
30

50 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

20

Students (thousands)

Tuition costs vary widely across Canada. In 2010, the average cost Ontario for undergraduate programs ranged from $2,400 in Quebec to Quebec $6,300 in Ontario. Over the past 30 years tuition fees have grown New Brunswick significantly faster than inflation, rising from about $1,900 in Nova Scotia 1980 to an average of about $5,100 in 2010 (after inflation). Average Prince Edward Island tuition fees grew most quickly during the 1990s, a period when several provinces were cutting back their support to universities. In Newfoundland and Labrador most instances the increases in fees were not sufficient to cover 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% the cuts in government revenues and increases in inflationary costs. During the last decade, to 2010 have grown to 1993 more slowly, about 2007 fees 1990 much $90 per year (after inflation). In three provinces Newfoundland Source: Statistics Canada and Labrador, Nova Scotia and Manitoba fees have even declined in real terms, over the course of the decade.

To gain a more comprehensive and accurate view of the cost of $5,000 attending university, it is important to consider factors that will reduce students costs. First, there are universal tax credits that all $0 1995 2000 2005 2006-07 2009-10 students can access. Tax1990 expenditures have played an increasingly NGS NGS NGS NGS CUSC CUSC Source: AUCC using Statistics financing. As a result of important role in education policy andCanada data major changes in the 2000 federal budget and subsequent changes 2007 to 2010 to federal and provincial taxes, the typical full-time student now has access to far higher levels of support through the tax systems. 1990 to 1993 FIGURE 51 : Growth in government operating revenues In 2009, the value of tax credits varied between $1,400 and have helped drive full-time enrolment growth since 1997 about $2,400, depending on the students province of residence.
12 900 800 For some students, affordability is primarily a cash-flow issue. 10 While these students are willing to invest in their education, they 700 600 may lack enough disposable income or access to sufficient loans 8 to cover their immediate costs. In such cases, the eventual future 500 6 400 availability of tax credits will not help them with their immediate Government Funding financial needs. It is not known how many students are affected by 300 4 Full-time students this type of liquidity constraint or, more generally, by an aversion 200 2 to accumulating any debt at all. For these students, up-front grants, 100 scholarships and personal or family savings play a bigger role in 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010e their decision to enrol.

between $41,000 and $79,300. While the new Canada Study Grants are lower in value, the new income thresholds mean that more students qualified for financial aid. For example, in 2008, 70,000 university students qualified for CMSF bursaries while in 2009, about twice as many university students FIGURE 46 : The growing educational attainment of adults aged 45-to-54 qualified for new Canada should drive further growth in university participation Study Grants. In addition, there has been a 10-fold increase in the amount of scholarships and bursaries rising from $150 million in 1990 to about $1.6 billion in 2010-201145 provided by universities to their undergraduate and graduate students. The availability of institutional support is now more widely recognized by potential students and their families. Data from the Canadian Undergraduate Survey Consortium illustrate that in 2007-2008, about 30 percent of all undergraduate students received scholarships or financial awards from their university with an average value of $3,000.
1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011e 2016e

Increases in government grants, loan remissions, loans and tax credits as well as increases in institutional scholarships and bursaries help to offset much of the increased costs associated with higher F IGURE a9result, while has been 10-fold increase education. universitySince 1990, theredebt fora undergraduate students As 4 : support for scholarships and bursaries in doubled between 1990 and 2000, both the proportion of students with1.8 debt (about 58 percent) and the average debt ($25,000) of 1.6students have largely stabilized over the last decade. those
1.4 ($) Billions Constant 2010 $ Current $ Student aid plays an important role in maintaining affordability 1.2 even in the face of some increases in tuition fees. However, 1.0 the foregoing analysis illustrates the growing complexity in 0.8 understanding the initial and ongoing net costs, highlighting the 0.6 need for more and clearer information about the relative costs and 0.4 benefits of attending university. Ongoing improvements to the 0.2 information available to students and parents, as well as enhancing 0.0 the design and effective targeting of student-aid packages, can help improve access for students with high financial needs. Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data
19 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 20 96 00 04 88 80 84 92 08 10 -9 -0 -0 -8 -8 -8 -9 -0 -1 7 1 5 9 1 5 3 9 1e

Constant 2010 $ Current $

urce: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey and Census F I GU RE 49 : Since 1990, there has been a 10-fold increase

in university support for scholarships and bursaries 1.8 1.6 FI GURE 47 : High school drop-out rates have declined signicantly during the last two decades Constant 2010 $ 1.4 ($) Billions 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
19 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 20

F IGUR E 53 debt doubled between F IGURE 5 0 : Undergraduate student : Canadas most research intensive universities trail all other groups in student-faculty interaction 1990 and 2000, then stabilized over the last decade

Constant 2010 $ $30,000 Current $ $25,000 $20,000

50

Constant 2010 $ Current $

Current $

40

nada

mbia

30 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0


96 00 04 80 84 88 92 08 10

berta

Constant 2010 $ 20 Current $

ewan

itoba

10
1990 NGS 1995 NGS

ntario

uebec

swick

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

2000 NGS

2005 2006-07 NGS First yearCUSC Carnegie research universities U.S. G13 (research intensive Canadian universities)

2009-10 CUSC Ontario Canadian universities

-9

-0

-0

-8 1

-8 5

-8 9

3 -9

9 -0

1 -1

Senior year
All NSSE

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

Scotia

sland

2007 to 2010
F I G U RE 50 : Undergraduate student debt doubled between 1990 and 2000, then stabilized over the last decade

d and rador

1990 to 1993 Constant 2010 $ Current $ 12

0%

$30,000 5%

10% 1990 to 1993

15%

20%

Source: Council of Ontario Universities using the National Survey of Student Engagement, F IGURE 5 1 : Growth in government operating revenues

AUCC
$25,000 2007 to 2010

have helped drive full-time enrolment growth since 1997

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 51


900 800

NGS

NGS

NGS

NGS

CUSC

CUSC

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

2007 to 2010 1990 to 1993 20% 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Government Funding Full-time students


F IGURE 5 1 : Growth in government operating revenues have helped drive full-time enrolment growth since 1997

0%

The capacity challenge


5% 10% 2007 to 2010

15%

University access and participation rates are affected by the physical 1990 to 1993 and human resources needed to provide a high-quality learning Source: Statistics Canada environment for students. Enrolment levels and participation rates are often used as a proxy for access. In fact, they indicate the amount of enrolment demand that has been met. Excess capacity allows institutions to reach out to new student groups and proactively expand access to help meet the needs of the economy. Constrained F IG U R E 48 : Tuition fees vary widely across Canada capacity forces universities to find ways to ration the limited number of seats available from an array of well-qualified applicants. 2010 As illustrated in the demography section, the future2000 capacity of individual universities to respond to shifting enrolment demand 1990 will vary widely across Canada. Several strategies exist for universities to contribute to rising national labour market demand 1980 for more graduates and more skilled graduates. Some universities are in regions with demographic declines. With their existing human and physical resources they could take on more students from within their province or region and drive up local participation rates. They could also attract more students from domestic and international markets where demand is outpacing the ability of local universities to meet that demand. This would drive growth national participation$5,000 $6,000 $7,000 these universities levels. Alternatively, 0 $1,000 in$2,000 $3,000 $4,000 could slowly retire-off aging and inefficient facilities, using their 2000 1990 1980 2010 remaining facilities and personnel to drive improvements in the quality of the learning environment. In doing so, they could Source: Statistics Canada, Survey of Tuition and Living Accomodation help drive qualitative improvements in the skills and talents of their graduates. Other universities are in growing urban areas and regions that attract large numbers of immigrants and international students. Many are already stretched beyond their ideal capacity. Universities in these instances ration the limited number of government-funded spaces based on grades.46 In many cases, high school graduates who want to go to university and have very good grades cannot get into
52 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

900 800

F G Students (thousands)

Constant 2010 $ (billions)

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 1990 1995 2000 2005 0 2010e

Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

their chosen university or program because of space constraints. The need to ration space will vary from program to program and from university to university. In some instances, students have the financial and other support needed to move to a second-choice university where there is enough capacity for them to gain entry. Other students may not want to travel away from their local area to attend university. Overcoming these types of constraints requires F IGURE 5 : Canadian universities score signicantly lower than U.S. a complex2mix of financial and non-financial supportpeers in mechanisms. active and collaborative learning Studies seem to indicate that a very significant number of well 50 qualified students are not achieving their university aspirations and more students would attend if additional capacity were created.47
40

Carnegie rese

G13 (research Ontario

There are significant costs associated with expanding university capacity, which in most instances cannot reasonably be covered by student fees. Tuition net of the scholarships given back to 20 students only covers about one-quarter of the average costs of university operating costs. While very small marginal increases 10 enrolment can be accommodated, any significant changes in require the addition of more space, faculty and support staff.
30 0 First year
Carnegie research universities U.S. G13 (research intensive Canadian universities) Ontario Canadian universities

Canadian un All NSSE

Senior year
All NSSE

AUCC

12 10

900 800 Full-time students Government Funding Students (thousands)

Constant 2010 $ (billions)

700 600

A8 clear link exists between government funding trends and enrolment. This link has been especially evident since the500 mid-1990s, 6 400 when governments cut their funding. Universities had to respond Government Funding 300 4 by reducing faculty, support services and constraining enrolment. Full-time students 200 It2became clear to both governments and universities that subsequent 100 enrolment growth could only be accomplished with funding increases 0 that were at or 1995 universities average costs. 2010e0 near 1990 2000 2005 There are significant trade-offs to be considered when expanding enrolment within a given set of physical and human resources. These trade-offs can significantly influence a number of factors that affect quality, including: degree of student engagement, level of student-faculty interaction, opportunities to participate actively in learning and research experiences, and opportunities for valuable interactions with students from other nations and cultures.
Source: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

The majority of Canadian universities participate in the U.S.-based National Survey of Student Engagement. The NSSE instrument allows students to describe their own educational experiences and their reactions to institutional practices as these relate to undergraduate learning. The instrument is designed so universities can assess the extent to which student activities and institutional practices create an environment that supports student learning as well as personal and skills development. U.S. universities score better than their Canadian peers on two very critical NSSE benchmarks:48 active and collaborative learning and student-faculty interaction. Active and collaborative learning measures participation in class, presentations, working with other students on projects, tutoring
F IG U R E 53 : Canadas most research intensive universities trail all other groups in student-faculty interaction

FIG UR E 4 9 : Since 1990, there has been a 10-fold increase n university support for scholarships and bursaries FIG U R E 5 2 : Canadian universities score signicantly lower than U.S. peers in

active and collaborative learning 50 Constant 2010 $ 40 Current $ Constant 2010 $ Current $

50 Carnegie research universities U.S. 40 G13 (research intensive Canadian universities) Ontario 30

Carnegie rese

G13 (research Ontario

30

Canadian universities 20 All NSSE 20

Canadian uni All NSSE

10
19 20 20 19 84 -8 81 5 19 88 19 92 20 20 96 00 04 08 10 -9 -0 -0

10 0

0-

urce: AUCC using Statistics Canada data

G U RE 5 0 : Undergraduate student(research intensive G13 debt doubled between 990 and 2000, then stabilized Canadian universities) over the last decade

AUCC
Constant 2010 $

-8 9

Source: Council of Ontario Universities using the National Survey of Student Engagement, 2008

-9 3

-0

-1

Carnegie research universities U.S.

First year
Ontario Canadian universities

1e

Senior year
All NSSE

First year
Carnegie research universities U.S. G13 (research intensive Canadian universities) Ontario Canadian universities

Senior year
All NSSE

Source: Council of Ontario Universities using the National Survey of Student Engagement, 2008

Constant 2010 $ Current $

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 53

other students, and participating in community-based projects. In this category, the American institutions score an average of 39 for first-year students and 50 for senior-year students, compared to the Canadian averages of 34 and 45, respectively. In the category of student-faculty interaction, the relative advantage in the U.S. was even higher for both first-year and senior-year students. This benchmark is significantly influenced by investing in university faculty. It includes measures like discussing grades with instructors; receiving prompt feedback; talking about career plans with faculty members; discussing ideas with faculty outside class; and working with faculty on activities other than coursework, from volunteer and social committees to research projects. Despite higher scores in the U.S., universities in both countries have room to improve. In doing so, they will further encourage and promote the kinds of learning experiences that enable students to develop the skills that employers demand. Before that can be done, necessary investments must be made that provide faculty with adequate time to develop enriched courses and programs which include academic support tools, and to interact more frequently with students. Expanding access to universities must therefore be understood to mean more than merely adding more student seats. In a period of rapid enrolment expansion, many of the requisite physical and human resources must be newly acquired, and therefore come at a high average cost. The kind of growth that Canadian universities have experienced over the last decade has taxed their capacity to provide students with high-quality experiences. Many universities are increasingly concerned with the quality of their undergraduate programs, and are focussing on rebuilding that quality experience. This focus on rebuilding quality may limit the resources available to expand enrolment.

Theoretical basis of NSSE


The National Survey of Student Engagement measures student involvement and institutional practice in more than 40 areas known to be associated with desirable learning and personal development outcomes. The theoretical and empirical basis for the survey originates with many previous studies that have demonstrated that particular services, programs, interventions and activities are consistent with improved graduation, retention, academic performance, knowledge acquisition and skills development.

54 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

AUCC

AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 55

Enrolment growth scenarios


The preceding Drivers of change section identified factors that will have an impact on participation rates. The interplay between these factors is complex, so it is difficult to disentangle the impacts of each separately. For example, some of the growth in urbanization is linked to immigration, as immigrants are more likely to live in large cities and to have a university degree. That, in turn, is also linked to the growth in enrolment demand generated through the influence of highly-educated parents. As well, parents, students and governments are all strongly influenced by the economic returns of a university education. All of these factors are linked to the needs of our labour force. The projections in this section are therefore heavily influenced by expected labour market demand for university graduates in the coming decade. Although demography is a factor in every enrolment projection model, it is not the predominant factor. There is no doubt that declines in the number of young people in our population will dampen the impact of any potential growth in participation levels over the period from 2012 to 2024. Over the longer term, the rebound in the population after 2024, the long-established link between enrolment demand and the labour market and the needs of the knowledge-based economy should combine to drive growth in the demand for university education. As highlighted in the Drivers of change section, there will be very significant differences in population trends between and within provinces. Universities in all provinces will clearly confront varying challenges as a result of demographic trends in the local and regional areas from which they have normally attracted their students. In some large urban areas, immigration and urbanization trends will drive population growth, stimulating more enrolment
56 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

demand. However, the youth population will be lower in every province in 2020 than it was in 2010. Universities in Atlantic Canada and Saskatchewan will likely face the steepest decline in youth population over the next 10 years. But as past experience has shown, the decline in population is very unlikely to cause steep enrolment declines. Other factors from increasing participation rates to meet labour market demand, to recruitment of international and out-of-province students have combined to offset the impacts of population change. So while demography will create enrolment challenges and uncertainties for many universities, demography is far from being the sole determinant of future demand. There are growing concerns that the current economic downturn will constrain government investments in university education in the short term. The extent to which the enrolment growth scenarios presented will be realized depend in significant measure on the countrys ability to finance the human and physical resources required to accommodate these changes. For example, the lack of investment in the mid-1990s was one of the principal factors that contributed to the flat participation rates over that period. There are signals that both the federal and provincial governments recognize the important relationship between expanding educational opportunities and the impact that relationship can have on both labour market and economic growth. Since 1997, the combined growth in investments from both levels of government and from students themselves has enabled universities to respond to dramatic increases in student demand. From 1997 to 2010, full-time enrolment increased 57 percent, or by 326,000 students. These investments were crucial over the last decade and will certainly be vital in the years ahead. An extended slow economic recovery may undermine public investment and drive up tuition fees (at the margins, increases in tuition costs would dampen enrolment demand), as well as undermine short-term prospects for job growth, especially for youth who have not completed postsecondary programs. This
AUCC

lack of job prospects, in turn, drives opportunity costs down and increases university demand. These factors have driven strong enrolment growth since 2008. Over the longer term as the economy recovers, and labour-market demand grows, a greater share of new jobs will be for university graduates, once again reinforcing the demand for higher education. Relatively slow growth in the size of Canadas labour force and much more rapid growth in the number who will retire from it during the next decade will create new challenges for Canada and many other nations. There will simply not be enough population growth to drive the kinds of increases in the overall size of our labour force that would be needed to support an increasingly dependent, aging population. There is increased recognition by governments that the key to sustained competitiveness, growth and prosperity is the ability of firms to innovate and adapt in a rapidly changing and highly globalized business environment. To thrive in such an environment, all sectors depend on high quality human capital as an essential source of skills, knowledge and ideas. Because universities are uniquely positioned to drive the formation of this type of human capital, the continued evolution towards a more innovative, knowledge-based economy will increase labour market demand for university graduates. All of the aforementioned factors have been considered in the creation of the following enrolment projections for the decade from 2010 to 2020.

over the coming decade. To meet this demand, the number of new graduates would need to grow by about 1.3 percent per year over the course of the decade. If this growth in new graduates is not reached, there will likely be labour shortages in knowledge intensive occupations. Annual increases of 1.3 percent in the number of graduates will likely require very similar increases in enrolment levels. By 2020, that kind of growth would generate an increase of 125,000 fulltime students in addition to the 900,000 students enroled in 2010. The projected increases in participation rates required to drive this enrolment growth are in line with the growth in participation which Canada has experienced since the 1990s. Part of the growth in enrolment and participation would come from increases in international students. For example, if Canadian universities were to maintain their current global market share of the projected increase in international students, that would generate an increase of 30,000 international students by 2020 an annual increase of about three percent. Growing by five percent per year would mean that universities would attract 45,000 more students in 10 years time, driving a small increase in our market share of international students. This growth in international student numbers would also help Canada address some of the expected increase in labour-market demand for graduates by the end of the decade. As noted earlier, the OECD has drawn a significant link between investments in human capital, innovation and productivity. The federal government is currently developing a digital economy strategy and conducting a review of federal support to R&D to determine how it can encourage greater private-sector innovation to help drive higher productivity in Canada. Policies emerging from these two initiatives are likely to drive even higher increases in labour-market demand for highly skilled graduates.

Scenarios
Based on past labour-market trends and projected population changes, AUCC expects that there will be close to 1.3 million more jobs for university graduates in 2020 than there were in 2010. In addition, there will be approximately 700,000 to 900,000 more jobs for university graduates to replace those graduates who will retire
AUCC

Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 57

400,000

200,000

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

However, with the slower growth in the size of our labour force, employment demand is likely to grow throughout all sectors of the economy. This is expected to drive salary increases for less-skilled jobs, and increase the opportunity costs of attending university. The expected growth in the competition for labour creates some uncertainty regarding whether past trends in job growth for graduates can be realized over the coming decade. Given this uncertainly, alternative scenarios for lower growth in enrolment demand have been developed. Average annual enrolment growth of 0.45 percent per year and 0.9 percent per year would translate into increases in full-time students of 40,000 and 80,000, respectively, by 2020. Again, growth in international student numbers would be expected to drive a good portion of this enrolment increase. Growth in domestic participation rates required to fuel the remaining portion of the growth would be significantly lower than we have witnessed over the last 10 to 15 years. The following charts illustrate how the projected enrolment and participation changes compare to actual changes over the last 30 years.
F IG U RE 54 : Enrolment increases over the coming decade

Source: In the high Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates full-time enrolment will growth scenario, aggregate increase by 125,000 students or about 14 percent between 2010 and 2020, compared to nine percent in the medium growth scenario and just five percent in the low-growth scenario. To put these changes into context, student enrolment increased by 4.6 percent from 2009 to 2010 and 44 percent over the last decade.

FIGURE 55 : Participation rates have grown strongly

over the last 30 years

University particiption rates by age

25to-29

22to-24

High 2020 growth Medium 2020 growth Low 2020 growth 2010 2000 1990 1980

18to-21

0%
are expected to be somewhat slower than historical trends due to the impact of population declines 1,200,000
Historical enrolment

5%

10%

15%

20% I G U R E 5 8 : In 2008, university participation rates in Cana 25% 30% F


significantly trailed those of many other countries University participation rates for population aged 18-21

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

1,000,000 Full-time enrolment

Low growth projection Medium growth projection

800,000

High growth projection

ll-time enrolment in four-year institutions

600,000

400,000

200,000

Brazil Turkey Historical enrolment Mexico Sweden Switzerland Belgium Low growth projection Israel Germany Estonia Austria Medium growth projection F IG U R E 56 : In the U.S., full-time enrolment is Canada New Zealand to grow strongly over the coming decade France Iceland High growth projection United Kingdom Greece 12,000 Australia Poland Russian Federation High alternative projections Spain Norway Middle alternative projections Slovak Republic Hungary 10,000 United Low alternative projections States Denmark Portugal Actual Czech Republic Finland Netherlands Italy 8,000 Korea

The enrolment scenarios are based on different assumptions about changes in both the labour market and participation rates. In the high growth scenario, participation rates for the 18-to-21 age cohort projected would have to increase to 28 percent, from just under 25 percent in 2010. In the 22-to-24 age cohort, participation rates would be expected to increase to 17 percent, up from 15 percent in 2010. And in the 25-to-29 year-old cohort mostly graduate students rates would be expected to rise from five to 6.5 percent. In general, these projections are conservative, given past trends and anticipated demand in the Canadian labour market and the global landscape.
Countries 0% 10% 20%

High alt Middle

Low alt Actual


30%

Source: Statistics Canada data and AUCC estimates

58 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

20

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

12

14

16

18

20

6,000

* Four-year age cohort with highest enrolment Source: AUCC estimates using OECD data, 2008 AUCC

Global growth in university participation


University enrolment trends in Canada should not be seen in isolation. There is a global competition for talent. Canada competes and collaborates with other nations so global enrolment trends will clearly affect enrolment demand in Canada. Many other countries are projecting increases in university enrolment and participation rates over the coming decade, some more strongly than others. Emerging economies like China, India and Brazil anticipate very strong increases in enrolment. Already these countries, along with the U.S., have the largest total number of higher education students. However, their participation rates trail far behind developed nations. As their economies expand, there is a strong potential for rapid enrolment growth, which will likely exceed domestic capacity for students, and in turn, will create international student demand. The population in China in the 18-to-24 age range is expected to fall by 22 percent or some 36 million fewer youth in that age range between 2010 and 2020. Therefore future enrolment increases will be driven exclusively by increases in participation rates. While this is consistent with the Canadian experience in the 1990s, the scale is much more dramatic. In June 2010, the government of the People Republic of China released a plan to reform education. It states that one aim is to increase access to universities for some five million students by 2020. One of the main objectives of the plan is to substantially transform higher education in China by promoting greater levels of independent thinking, intellectual curiosity, creativity, and innovation. The ongoing growth in Chinas economy, combined with the expansion and reform of its higher education system should also promote even higher levels of demand for studyabroad experiences, and generate greater potential for richer and deeper partnerships and exchanges between Chinese and Canadian universities.49
AUCC

In India, population projections reveal that the number of youth in the 18-to-24 age range will grow by some 10 million between 2010 and 2020.50 Ernst and Young,51 working with Indias University Grants Commission, projects that higher education enrolment in India will grow from 13.6 million students in 2008 to 22.1 million by 2020. Population growth will drive some of the anticipated enrolment growth in student numbers during that period, with the vast majority of the growth arising from expanded access and increased participation rates. The National Knowledge Commission, an advisory body to the Prime Minister of India, was given the mandate in 2005 to guide policy and direct reforms, focusing on key areas such as education, science and technology, agriculture, industry and e-governance. In 2006, the commission estimated that India would need to create an additional 1,500 universities by 2015 to create adequate capacity in order to achieve enrolment levels comparable with most developed countries.52 Despite strong enrolment growth and the creation of many new universities, India has not been able to achieve the targets set out in its action plan. Even with growth in the supply of spaces domestically, the University Grants Commission and others53 are projecting that the number of students studying abroad will continue to grow over the coming decade. While China and India currently comprise about 26 percent of our full-time international students, Canadas universities attract international students from some 200 countries. Prospects for attracting international students are not solely dependent on changes in participation within China and India. It will also be increasingly important to develop deeper relationships with other emerging economies, like Brazil. University enrolment in Brazil more than doubled from 2.4 million students in 1999 to 5.4 million students in 2008, and the potential for increasingly rapid growth in demand for education exists in the medium and longer term. Currently, lack of capacity prevents
Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment | 59

University particiption rates by age

25to-29

the majority of youth from completing secondary school. However, as Brazil continues to expand and enhance its elementary and secondary school systems, the demand for university education is expected to grow, particularly given that there is no projected decline in Brazils youth population, as in China. As the economy in Brazil expands, it is expected that more and more Brazilian students will also recognize the value of studyabroad experiences. Relatively few Brazilian students are currently studying outside Brazil; approximately 20,000 out of more than five million domestic students. This is a far smaller share than is typical in several other developed nations and emerging economies. The scale of potential enrolment growth in emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil are very different than those in developed nations like Canada, the U.S., Australia and most of the E.U. To meet the rapid changes taking place in their economies and resulting demand for university graduates, emerging economies are projecting far higher increases in university participation rates in the decade ahead. Moreover, most developed nations are also projecting enrolment and participation rate increases in the coming decade. The U.S. was the first country to provide broad access to degree programs. As a result, it has for many years had a competitive advantage in the proportion of the population that has completed a degree. This is confirmed by the OECD which shows there are far more university graduates in the U.S. population between the ages of 45 and 64 than in other developed nations. However, this degree advantage is eroding among younger age groups. During the 1980s and 1990s, enrolment grew at a much slower pace in the U.S. than in many other countries: full-time enrolment in four-year institutions increased by just 11 percent in the 1980s and 14 percent in the 1990s. Despite a 31 percent enrolment increase over the last decade, the U.S. now sits tied in seventh place in terms of the proportion of
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22youthto-24 25-to-34 with a university degree, and many other nations aged are biting at its heels. 18Based on past patterns, the National Center for Education to-21 Statistics54 projects that between 2007 and 2018, full-time enrolment in four-year U.S. universities and colleges (public and private) will 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% increase by between Canada data 19 AUCC estimatesThese projections are driven Source: Statistics 10 and and percent. mostly by increases in participation rates in the youth cohorts, and by some limited increases in enrolment driven by population growth, especially between the ages of 25 and 34.

High 2020 growth Medium 2020 growth Low 2020 growth 2010 2000 1990 1980

F IG U R E 56 : In the U.S., full-time enrolment is projected to grow strongly over the coming decade

Full-time enrolment in four-year institutions

12,000
High alternative projections Middle alternative projections

High

Midd

10,000

Low alternative projections Actual

Low a

8,000

Actua

6,000

4,000
18 20 16 20 14 20 12 20 10 20 08 20 06 20 04 20 02 20 00 20 98 19 96 19 94 19 92 19 90 19 88 19 86 19 84 19 82 19 80 19
Source: National Center for Education Statistics, Projection of Education Statistics to 2018

These projections do not include the impact of the recession (which drove a nine percent enrolment increase in the U.S. from 2007 to 2009 alone). Nor do they include the kind of growth proposed by many national organizations55 in the U.S., including, most prominently, the recent goal set by President Barack Obama to have the U.S. lead the world in higher education in educational attainment by the year 2020. Observers in the U.S., from the Lumina Foundation
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to the American Council on Education to the most recent State of the Nation Address by the President, are calling for dramatic increases in enrolment and completion of higher education to enable the country to compete more favourably with developed nations and emerging economies in the global knowledge economy.56 President Obama has proposed several ways to make this happen, including increasing the grant aid available through needs-based postsecondary federal grant program, and increasing income-tax credits for tuition costs. Part of the fiscal stimulus package already provided by the federal government to the state governments in response to the recession has helped to offset cuts in operating support for universities and colleges. However, even when combined with the stimulus support, there are still a dozen states in the U.S. where state support to public postsecondary institutions is expected to be 10 to 23 percent lower in 2010-2011 than in 2007-2008. The capacity of institutions to meet expected growth in demand may be threatened without alternative funding streams. Meanwhile in Australia, in 2008 the government initiated a review of higher education to examine the future direction of the sector, its fitness for the purpose of meeting the needs of the Australian community and economy, and the options for ongoing reform. The review was conducted by an independent expert panel, led by emeritus professor Denise Bradley.57 The Bradley Review concluded that, to meet future labour market demand, university degree completion within the population of youth 25-to-34 years-old would need to grow from 32 percent in 2007 to 40 percent in 2025. To reach this goal, Australias universities would need to expand capacity by some 40 percent to accommodate an additional 284,000 students, beyond the 716,000 full-time students who were enrolled in 2006, (the base year for that study). To achieve this degree completion target, Australia would need to increase domestic enrolment, continue to attract relatively large numbers of foreign students, and increase the
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number of immigrants who have completed university degrees. On the enrolment front, while growth in the Australian youth population is projected to drive a 14 percent increase in enrolment demand, most of the projected growth would need to come from increases in university participation rates. At current participation levels, population growth would generate demand for about 105,000 spaces, meaning that participation growth would need to generate an additional 180,000 students. As part of their 2009 budget, the Australian government announced it will provide an additional $5.4 billion (AUD) to support higher education and research over the next four years. This increase in funding is designed to support high quality teaching and learning, improve access and outcomes for students from low socio-economic backgrounds, build new links between universities and disadvantaged schools, reward institutions for meeting agreed-upon quality and equity outcomes, improve resourcing for research and invest in world-class tertiary education infrastructure.58 In Europe, demographic projections are raising concerns about the impact of declining youth populations on university enrolment. Most of the countries in the EU-27 will see population in the key 18-to-24 age range decline over the coming decade, some by more than 20 percent by 2020. However, plans proposed by the European Commission in its Europe 2020 Strategy counter the impact of the decline in population. The plan identifies five ambitious objectives (employment, innovation, education, social inclusion and climate/ energy) to be achieved by 2020. In the area of tertiary education, the Europe 2020 Strategy calls for 40 percent of 30-to-34 year-olds in the E.U. to have completed a postsecondary degree or diploma (up from 31 percent in 2008) by 2020.59 For example, Germany is planning for enrolment increases despite significant population declines. In Germany, the number of people in the 18-to-24 age cohort is expected to decline by 15 percent by 2020.60 Yet, the German Federal Ministry of Education and
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Research is projecting an increase of 275,000 new students by 2017. To facilitate this growth, the German federal government and the Lnder (state governments) recently renewed the Higher Education Pact, an agreement created to cope with the increasing number of students. In the second phase of this agreement, the federal government will provide five billion EUR ($6.95B CAD) to universities to expand capacity and make way for an additional 275,000 new entrants expected between 2011 and 2017. In addition, the federal government is investing 2.7 billion EUR ($3.75B CAD) over five years from 2012 to 2017 through the German Excellence Initiative to promote outstanding science and research, and another, five percent annually to the base in university research. The federal government and the state governments have agreed to ensure further funding for the quality of teaching over the next 10 years.61 According to the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the primary rationale for these investments is [a] first-rate research landscape and highly qualified professionals are key factors for a countrys social and economic development. Universities play a particularly important role in securing Germanys future. As the central institutions of our research system, they are the drivers of knowledge acquisition. At the same time, they provide qualifications for young scientists. Demand for university graduates in the labour market is growing and will continue to grow in future.62 In France, enrolment in higher education increased63 by 23 percent in the 1990s. During the last decade the pace of growth has been more moderate at about nine percent over the period. Although the 18-to-24 population is expected to decline by five percent by 2017 and rebound quickly to 2010 levels by 2023,64 the ministre de lEnseignement suprieur et de la Recherche anticipates that enrolment will increase by about five percent between 2009 and 2019. Part of this growth will be encouraged through the governments announcement of the grand emprunt, a 35-billion EUR stimulus package intended to boost the countrys long-term competitiveness. This initiative will provide funding for high
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priority areas including higher education and research. An estimated $11 billion EUR ($15.29B CAD) will be invested to improve the quality of higher education and eight billion EUR ($11.12B CAD) for research.65 The U.K. anticipates a 13 percent decline in the 18-to-21 year-old population between 2010 and 2020. However, this youth cohort will rebound in the subsequent decade, resulting in a small net growth by 2036 over current levels, a slightly longer time frame than Canada.66 Like most developed nations, the U.K. is expecting growth in university participation rates to meet labour market demands.67 A study by the Higher Education Policy Institute noted that there is unmet enrolment demand in England. The proportion of applicants failing to receive an offer from institutions has grown from six percent in 2003 to 14 percent in 2010 and is expected to continue to grow in the foreseeable future. HEPI projects that demand could grow by as much as 10 percent from 2008 to 2020.68 However, major funding policy changes in England make it very difficult to project enrolment levels over the coming decade. The Browne Review of Higher Education Funding and Student Finance released its findings in October 2010.69 The Review recommended a radically different fee regime, which the government is now implementing. Most students commencing study in England in 2012 will face a two- to three-fold increase in the cost of their tuition, from about $6,000 CAD to between $12,000 and $18,000 CAD. Students will continue to be able to borrow to cover these tuition costs and will only begin to repay once their post-graduation income exceeds ($33,600 CAD). Given the sudden and significant changes in tuition fees, it is not yet possible to determine their impact on enrolment demand. In their most recent report, HEPI notes that they are not yet able to quantify the impact of the tuition change on enrolment demand.

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Many reports, including those of the OECD, show Canada as having the highest postsecondary attainmentenrolment the world. rate in Historical This enviable position is achieved because Canadas labourforce survey data indicates that CanadaLow growth projection larger has a significantly proportion of college graduates than the vast majority of OECD m growth projection 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Medium growth projection rowth projection countries. According to the OECD, Canada has about three times * Four-year age cohort with highest enrolment more postsecondary non-university2008 High growth projection Source: AUCC estimates using OECD data, graduates than is typical for other OECD countries, and proportionally far more trade and vocational graduates.70 It is clear that Canada has chosen to invest more at the college level than most other developed nations.
FIG U R E 57 : Canadas rank has fallen from 4th to 15th

Belgium Israel Germany Estonia Austria Canada New Zealand France Iceland United Kingdom Greece Australia ent increases over the coming decade Poland Russian Federation somewhat slower than historical trends Spain of population declines Norway Slovak Republic Hungary United States Denmark Portugal cal enrolment Czech Republic Finland Netherlands owth projection Italy Korea

18-21

Countries

What about Canada?

F IG U R E 58 : In 2008, university participation rates in Canada

significantly trailed those of many other countries University participation rates for population aged 18-21
Brazil Turkey Mexico Sweden Switzerland Belgium Israel Germany Estonia Austria Canada New Zealand France Iceland United Kingdom Greece Australia Poland Russian Federation Spain Norway Slovak Republic Hungary United States Denmark Portugal Czech Republic Finland Netherlands Italy Korea

our competitive advantage is eroding


20 20 20 20 20 10 12 14 16 18 20

a data and AUCC estimates

Countries

pation rates ears

64 estimates ada data and AUCC| Trends

19

19

19

19

20

20

20

20

20

20

90

92

10%

94

96

Austria Germany Czech Republic Slovak Republic Mexico Greece Italy Chile Belgium Portugal France Spain Switzerland Canada Ireland Iceland United Kingdom have grown strongly Japan Australia Poland United States Sweden Finland High 2020 growth New Zealand Korea Medium 2020 growth Denmark Low 2020 growth Netherlands Norway 2010

98

15%

00

02

04

06

20%

in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

08

University attainment rate


Population aged 55-64 Population aged 25-34

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

* Four-year age cohort with highest enrolment Source: AUCC estimates using OECD data, 2008

2000 0% 10% 20% 1990 Source: AUCC estimates using OECD data, 2008 1980

30%

40%

50%

By contrast, other countries have chosen to grow their university systems to a greater extent than in Canada. Thirty years ago, Canada was a leader among OECD countries in university attainment. For example, if we examine adults aged 55-to-64,to 15 ranks fourth Canada F IG U R E 5 7 : Canadas rank has fallen from 4 our competitive advantage is eroding among the OECD. In 2008, university attainment rates for the cohort aged University attainment rate 25-to-34 placed Canada 15th among OECD countries. CanadaAustria further when we measure university participation falls Germany Czech Republic rates for the proportion of youth who enroll in Population aged 55-64 full-time university Slovak Republic Population aged 25-34 Mexico after leaving their respective secondary school systems, study soon Greece Italy placing 21st among 31 countries. Chile
th th

55-64 25-34
25% 30%

Canadas attainment advantage is eroding: in the coming decade, Canada risks falling still further behind competitor countries. The preceding examples from the U.S., Britain, Australia and the E.U. illustrate that many of our peers are taking action to encourage even more growth in university participation over the coming decade.
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Belgium Portugal France Spain Switzerland Canada Ireland Iceland United Kingdom Japan Australia Poland United States Sweden Finland New Zealand Korea Denmark Netherlands Norway

Meanwhile, emerging economies such as Brazil, India and China are experiencing tremendous enrolment and participation growth. These countries are making investments to meet their rapidly increasing demand for university enrolment. They are closing the gap in participation rates with Canada. So what does this mean for Canada? The expansion of higher education systems around the world is a response to major changes taking place in the global knowledge economy. The global competition for skilled and talented workers will continue to drive enrolment demand in the coming decade.

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List of figures
Figure 1: Since 1980, full-time students have driven growth in undergraduate enrolment................................6 Figure 2: Younger students are driving growth at undergraduate level............................................................7 Figure 3: Part-time undergraduate students are younger now than at the beginning of the 1980s...........................8 Figure 4: Universities are responsive to shifting demand from undergraduate students............................................9 Figure 5: Since 1980, full-time masters enrolment has tripled and full-time doctoral enrolment has grown more than four-fold ..........................................................10 Figure 6: Part-time graduate students are significantly older than their full-time counterparts........................... 11 Figure 7: The discipline preferences of masters and doctoral students is quite different.................................12 Figure 8: Proportion of women in full-time undergraduate programs plateaued in 2000 .................14 Figure 9: Gender distribution by discipline remained constant from 2000 to 2008 .............................................14 Figure 10: Women represent the majority of students in most disciplines..............................................................15 Figure 11: Recruitment activities have helped triple international student enrolment numbers since 1998...16 Figure 12: International students are far more likely to study in business, engineering and math than Canadian students ..............................................................................16 Figure 13: Top source countries have changed since 1980 ...........................................................................17 Figure 14: Australia and the U.K had the largest shares of international university students in 2007-2008 .........18

Figure 15: The share of Aboriginal youth in the population varies by province ..........................................20 Figure 16: Earnings of Aboriginal Canadians increase with educational attainment ...........................................21 Figure 17: In 2010, students under 22 make up half the full-time student body ......................................................24 Figure 18: Shifting demographic patterns will be a constant challenge over the next 30 years......................24 Figure 19: Population changes will have a small impact on full-time enrolment over the next two decades, but will lead to growth in the long term ...............................25 Figure 20: Underlying assumptions will have a major impact on projections for the 18-to-21 age cohort in Saskatchewan.....................................................................25 Figure 21: The mid-growth scenario projects strong population rebound in the 18-to-21 age cohort nationally and in Quebec..................................................26 Figure 22: The mid-growth scenario projects population in the 18-to-21 age cohort will rebound strongly in all provinces west of Quebec.................................................26 Figure 23: Between 1980 and 1993, the number of fulltime bachelors students aged 18-to-21 grew strongly despite population declines in that cohort.....................27 Figure 24: Between 2000 and 2010, growing participation and population have combined to drive rapid enrolment increases in most provinces..................28 Figure 25: Projecting strong growth for international tertiary students worldwide.............................................29 Figure 26: Visible minority groups are far more likely to have completed a university degree................................32 Figure 27: Students are responding to growing demand for knowledge workers in Canadas labour market.......32 Figure 28: Canadas shifting employment market is creating more demand for education within and across different occupations........................................................33

Figure 29: Since 2004, employment of university graduates has grown rapidly across Canada...................33 Figure 30: The demand for knowledge workers is being driven by employment growth in occupations that typically require university education .............................34 Figure 31: Looking ahead, labour demands will grow further given the need to replace the number of people expected to retire..............................................................35 Figure 32: Canadas dependency ratio is beginning to grow, but will remain at low levels over the coming decade ................................................................................36 Figure 33: Per capita health care costs rise dramatically for those over the age of 70 .............................................37 Figure 34: The Canadian labour market is generating a growing demand for graduate degrees..........................37 Figure 35: Since 1990, the number of immigrants to Canada with graduate degrees has grown rapidly ........38 Figure 36: The U.S. awards proportionately twice as many masters degrees and one-third more PhDs annually than does Canada ..............................................38 Figure 37: The earnings advantage for male university graduates increased significantly between 1980 and 2005 ....................................................................................39 Figure 38: The earnings advantage for female university graduates increased between 1980 and 2005, and remains higher than the advantage for males ...............41 Figure 39: Graduates educated in Canada earn significantly higher premia than peers educated outside Canada ..................................................................41 Figure 40: The earning premium for a university graduate educated in Canada increases with age and work experience ................................................................43 Figure 41: Average income varies widely by area of specialization for graduates from Canadian postsecondary institutions ...............................................43

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Figure 42: University graduates are far less likely to experience long periods of low income ......................... 44 Figure 43: In 2009, unemployment rates increased more dramatically for those who had not completed a university degree.............................................................. 44 Figure 44: University graduates contribute a disproportionately large share a income taxes and receive a smaller share of government transfers............45 Figure 45: Parents educational attainment and income impact the chances of children attending university.....47 Figure 46: The growing educational attainment of adults aged 45-to-54 should drive further growth in university participation ......................................................................48 Figure 47: High school drop-out rates have declined significantly during the last two decades .......................49 Figure 48: Tuition fees vary widely across Canada .........50 Figure 49: Since 1990 there has been a 10-fold increase in university support for scholarships and bursaries......51 Figure 50: Undergraduate student debt doubled between 1990 and 2000, then stabilized over the last decade .........................................................................51 Figure 51: Growth in government operating revenues have helped drive full-time enrolment growth since 1997 ...........................................................................52 Figure 52: Canadian universities score significantly lower than U.S. peers in active and collaborative learning......53 Figure 53: Canadas most research intensive universities trail all other groups in student-faculty interaction ......53 Figure 54: Enrolment increases over the coming decade are expected to be somewhat slower than historical trends due to the impact of population declines ...........58 Figure 55: Participation rates have grown strongly over the last 30 years .................................................................58 Figure 56: In the U.S., full-time enrolment is projected to grow strongly over the coming decade...........................60

Figure 57: Canadas rank has fallen from 4th to 15th our competitive advantage is eroding ............................64 Figure 58: In 2008, university participation rates in Canada significantly trailed those of many other countries.............................................................................64

Table 1: The gap between Aboriginal and non-aboriginal university attainment rates is widening..........................19 Table 2: From 1990 to 2009, employment growth for university graduates outpaced other levels of education ...........................................................................34 Table 3: Canadian university graduates have a greater lifetime earning average...................................................42 Table 4: Education generates broader benefits to society and the economy ...............................................................46

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References
All data not referenced below are based on AUCC estimates and/ or analysis of data collected by Statistics Canada.
1. AUCC, Trends in Higher Education Volume 1: Enrolment (2007). www.aucc. ca/publications/auccpubs/research/ trends/trends_e.html 2. Drewes, T., labour Force Projections: The Role of the Education Age Gradient (2006). 3. In 2000, Statistics Canada adopted the U.S. standard for classification of instructional programs for reporting students by field of study. Statistics Canada has reclassified students going back as far as 1992, which limits our ability to conduct detailed, comparable analysis with earlier periods. 4. In 2008, a number of new institutions were added to the Statistics Canada survey and as a result it is more appropriate to analyze enrolment data by disciplines between 1992 and 2007. 5. Other graduate level includes masters qualifying year, university graduate level certificate or diploma, PhD (Doctor of Philosophy) qualifying year or probationary, internship (postgraduate medical education known as postMD) and residency (medical, dental, veterinary). Statistics Canada, PSIS Codeset (2010).

6. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development database, stats.oecd.org. 7. Ibid. 8. American Council on Education, Gender Equity in Higher Education: 2010 (2010). 9. Many of these new scholarships were announced as part of AUCCs mission to India that took place in November 2010. For more information, visit www. aucc.ca. 10. The Canadian University Survey Consortium, http://www.cusc-ccreu.ca. 11. Frenette, M., What Explains the Educational Attainment Gap Between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Youth?, Pursuing Higher Education in Canada: Economic, Social and Policy Dimensions edited by Finnie R., Frenette M., Mueller R. & Sweetman A., Queens Policy Studies Series, 175-189 (2010). 12. Office of the Auditor General of Canada, november Report of the Auditor General of Canada (2004) http://www. oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_ oag_200411_05_e_14909.html 13. Information obtained from the Department of Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (April 4, 2011). 14. In the fall of 2005, Statistics Canada produced updates on its extensive 50-year population projection model yielding several alternative scenarios for estimating shifts in the population bases that are

most relevant for universities. Figure 19 uses Statistics Canadas moderate growth scenario to illustrate how the population is changing in each of the main cohorts that drive undergraduate and graduate enrolment in Canada. 15. Statistics Canada, Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories 2009 to 2036 (2010). 16. The UNESCO Institute for Statistics defines internationally mobile students as those who study in a foreign country of which they are not a permanent resident the report does not include students in short exchange programs of one school year or less. UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Global Education Digest: Comparing Education Statistics Across the World (2009). 17. NAFSA: Association of International Educators, In Americas Interest: Welcoming International Students (2003). 18. For more information on the British Prime Ministers Initiative, see www. britishcouncil.org/eumd-pmi2.htm 19. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development database, stats.oecd.org. 20. Ibid. 21. Ibid. 22. In June 2010, the Association of Canadian Community Colleges, the Association of Universities and Colleges of Canada, the Canadian Association of Public Schools

International, the Canadian Bureau for International Education and Languages Canada signed a Memorandum of Understanding establishing the Canadian Consortium for International Education Marketing. The Consortium is committed to attracting the best and brightest students to Canada, and will engage in marketing abroad, and provide leadership, coordination and added value to the sectors marketing efforts to attract international students to Canada. For more information, visit http://www.aucc.ca/publications/ media/2010/consortium_int_edu_ marketing_06_29_e.html. 23. Drewes, T., Post-Secondary Education and the labour Market in ontario, Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario (March 2010). 24. This publication includes three conditions for defining occupations under pressure or in shortages: occupations with unemployment rates 30 percent below the average rate or close to their lowest historical; occupations with employment growth 50 percent faster than the average; and occupations with wage growth 30 percent faster than average. Human Resources and Social Development, Canada, looking Ahead: 10-year outlook for the Canadian labour Market - 2006-2015 (2007). 25. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, SMEs, Entrepreneurship and Innovation (2010). 26. Moreover, Statistics Canadas lowgrowth population projections show that the population aged 25-to-59, the
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68 | Trends in Higher Education | Volume 1. Enrolment

cohort that drives the labour market, will begin to contract in 2018. The annual population declines from 2018 to 2026 would offset almost all of the limited growth that is expected between 2006 and 2016. As a result, there would not be significantly more adults aged 25-to-59 in 2026 than there were in 2006. 27. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Employment outlook 2006: Boosting Jobs and Incomes, (2006). 28. Canadian Institute for Health Information. 29. Almost 90 percent of full-time masters students and 84 percent of PhD students were in the 22-to-39 year-old cohort in 2008. 30. Riddell W., Investing in Human Capital: Policy Priorities for Canada (2007). Boothby, D. and Drewes T., The payoff: Returns to University, College and Trades Education in Canada, 1980-2005, C.D. Howe Institute (August 24, 2010). Palameta B., Zhang X., Does it pay to go back to school, Perspectives, Statistics Canada (March 2006). 31. Boudarbat B., Lemieux T., Riddell C.W., The Evolution of the returns to Human Capital in Canada 1980-2005, Canadian Labour Research Network, Working paper no. 53 (January 2010). 32. AUCC estimates that the private annual rate of return for a bachelors degree earned in Canada was 14 percent compared to about eight percent for a college diploma or certificate.
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33. Riddell C. W., Investing in Human Capital: Policy Priorities for Canada (2004). 34. Ibid. 35. Edited by Berge, J., Motte, A., & Parkin, A., The Price of Knowledge: Access and Student Finance in Canada, The Millennium Scholarship Foundation (2009). 36. For more information on the Youth in Transition Survey and the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics, visit www.statcan.gc.ca. 37. Edited by Finnies R., Mueller R., Sweetman A. & Usher, A., Who Goes? Who Stays? What Matters?: Accessing and Persisting in Post-Secondary Education in Canada, Queens Policy Studies Series (2008). 38. Edited by Berge, J., Motte, A., & Parkin, A., The Price of Knowledge: Access and Student Finance in Canada, The Millennium Scholarship Foundation (2009). 39. Edited by Finnies R., Mueller R., Sweetman A. & Usher, A., Who Goes? Who Stays? What Matters?: Accessing and Persisting in Post-Secondary Education in Canada, Queens Policy Studies Series (2008). 40. The Canadian University Survey Consortiums 2004 survey of first-year students shows about half reported that their fathers had completed a university or professional degree program. Slightly fewer students reported that their mothers had completed university or professional degrees. Meanwhile, about

one-quarter of the students reported that their parents had either completed high school or CEGEP. Only six percent of these same students parents had not completed high school. Canadian Undergraduate Survey Consortium, Survey of First-year University Students 2004 Master Report (2004). 41. Pathways to Education Canada, www.pathwayscanada.ca/results.html. 42. For more information about visit http://web.uvic.ca/ lenonet/about.html.
LE,NONET,

Department of Finance Canada, The Budget Plan 2007: Aspire to a Stronger, Safer, Better Canada (2007). In the modern global economy, the most successful nations are those that best combine people, skills, new ideas and advanced technologies to create a competitive edge. Canada must be well positioned to succeed in this new environment. In support of its commitment to postsecondary excellence, Budget 2007 proposes to increase the Canada Social Transfer by $800 million per year. This increase will take effect in 2008-2009, allowing discussions with provinces and territories on how best to make use of this new investment and ensure appropriate reporting and accountability to Canadians. It will grow at three per cent per year thereafter. This represents a significant increase in support for postsecondary education and will give provinces and territories the increased resources they need to maintain and strengthen Canadas universities and colleges. It will help ensure that Canadas postsecondary education system meets the needs of Canadians and contributes to Canadas future economic and social success. This funding will strengthen Canadas universities and colleges by supporting the objectives of improving the quality of teaching and learning, providing better access for under-represented groups, renewing institutional capacity at the undergraduate and graduate level supported by first-rate infrastructure and investments in research and development and improving the flexibility

43. AUCC, Answering the call: The 2010 inventory of Canadian university programs and services for Aboriginal students (2010) http://www.aucc.ca/publications/ auccpubs/reports/aboriginal_ inventory_2010_e.html. 44. For examples see: Council of the Federation, Competing for Tomorrow, (July 2006), www. councilofthefederation.ca/pdfs/ PSE%20Strategy-July-ENG.pdf. The labour force of the 21st Century must have highly educated and trained workers no one can be left behind. Canadas economy needs more new apprentices and more committed employers to produce a professional and skilled workforce in the trades and to help ensure employers have access to the skill supply they need. Access must be improved for the many Canadians who have been traditionally disadvantaged and underrepresented in both postsecondary education and employment.

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of the system to meet the needs of adult learners and students from across the country and around the world. 45. Some of the growth in student aid consists of funds that are not available to the typical undergraduate as they flow to students through the universities from federal research granting agencies for graduate student scholarships. There is no national database on aid provided to students with needs based aid so it is not possible to determine the average impact of institutional aid for undergraduate students who receive scholarships or bursaries from their universities. 46. Drews, T,.The University Gender Gap: The Role of High School Grades (May 2009). 47. Finnie, R., A Simple Model of Access and Capacity in Post Secondary Schooling in Canada (2004). Educational Policy Institute, Access, Persistence, and Barriers in Postsecondary Education: A literature Review and outline of Future Research, Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario. (2008). Sussex Circle Inc., Access to PostSecondary Education in Canada: Facts and Gaps Canadian Policy Research Networks and Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation (2002). 48. An institutions benchmark score is the average of all the student-bystudent benchmark scores. The only way an institutional benchmark score of 100 would be possible would be if every student responded to the

highest category on every one of the component items in that benchmark. NSSE, http://nsse.iub.edu/html/ survey_instruments.cfm. 49. Information obtained from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada (August 2010). 50. United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2008 database, http:// esa.un.org/unpp/ 51. Ernst and Young, new Realities, new Possibilities: the Changing Face of Indian Higher Education (2010). 52. Global Knowledge Commission of India (2006), http://www. knowledgecommission.gov.in/ recommendations/higher.asp. 53. Banks M., Olsen A., Pearce D., Global Student Mobility: An Australian Perspective Five Years on, IDP Education Pty Ltd (2007). 54. National Center for Education Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2018, (2009). 55. Over the last two years the Lumina Foundation, the College Board, the Gates Foundation, McKinsey and Company, the National Governors Association and the Obama Administration have all made calls for very signification increases in postsecondary participation, completion and attainment over the next 10 to 15 years. The goals are often put in terms of returning the U.S. to a leadership position for postsecondary attainment within the OECD as a means to help the U.S. compete economically.

Hauptman, A., Increasing Higher Education Attainment in the United States: Challenges and opportunities, prepared for the American Enterprise Institute Conference (February 2011). 56. The OECD points out that in 29 of 30 developed countries the income premium for graduates was growing. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Education at a Glance 2010 (2010). 57. Australian Government, Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations, www.deewr. gov.au/highereducation/review/Pages/ default.aspx. 58. Commonwealth of Australia, Transforming Australias Higher Education System, (2009), http://www.deewr.gov. au/HigherEducation/Documents/ PDF/Additional%20Report%20-%20 Transforming%20Aus%20Higher%20 ED_webaw.pdf. 59. European Commission, Europe 2020, http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/ index_en.htm. 60. European Commission, Eurostat database, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa. eu/portal/page/portal/population/ data/database. 61. European University Association, Impact of the Economic Crisis on European universities, (January 2011). 62. German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, http://paktfuer-hochschulen.org/en/6142.php (2009).

63. Ministre de lenseignement suprieur et de la recherche, http:// www.enseignementsup-recherche.gouv.fr 64. European Commission, Eurostat database, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa. eu/portal/page/portal/population/ data/database 65. Butler, D., French research wins huge cash boost, (December 2009), www.nature.com/news/2009/091215/ full/462838a.html. 66. European Commission, Eurostat database, http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa. eu/portal/page/portal/population/ data/database. 67. The Brown Review proposes that the number of student places in higher education should increase by 10 percent over the next three years in order to meet demand. Brown, J., et al., Securing a sustainable future for higher education, (October 2010) http://www.bis.gov.uk/ assets/biscore/corporate/docs/s/101208-securing-sustainable-highereducation-browne-report.pdf. 68. Higher Education Policy Institute, Higher Education Supply and Demand to 2020 (February 2011). 69. Brown, J., et al., Securing a sustainable future for higher education, (October 2010) http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/biscore/ corporate/docs/s/10-1208-securingsustainable-higher-education-brownereport.pdf. 70. The scale of these differences raises serious concerns regarding the comparability of postsecondary attainment rates.
AUCC

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