| Lebanon: Opinion |

I Am Optimistic, Perhaps Naively So, About Lebanons Prospects.

Elias Muhanna, a PhD candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Harvard University, is the man behind Qifa Nabki, a Lebanese blog whose commentary has appeared in The National, Foreign Policy and other publications. Muhanna and his blog are cited and quoted widely in both the blogosphere and the mainstream media. His posts provide unique analysis of Lebanons politics and here he speaks to SIGNAL about the immediate challenges for his country.
Could you give a brief overview of how Lebanon is coping in the current political uncertainty? If you are referring to the uncertainty generated by the Arab Spring, it seems that Lebanon has not yet felt the impact in a significant way. There have not been any protests or demonstrations of the kind witnessed in other countries, mostly because of the absence of authoritarianism in Lebanese politics. This is not to say that Lebanon will not be impacted in the near future, particularly if Syria is destabilised further and/or if the status quo on the Arab-Israeli front is challenged by events in Egypt. What do you anticipate will be the outcome and the impact of the report into the assassination of Rafik Hariri? It depends entirely on the contents of the indictment put forward by the Special Prosecutor. If Daniel Bellemare has a compelling case that rests on hard evidence and credible witness testimony, then the investigation may indeed have an impact on the Lebanese political arena, particularly if Hezbollah is implicated in any way (as has been leaked over the past couple of years). Such an outcome will strain Sunni-Shiite relations in Lebanon (which are already very tense) and could potentially open the way to reprisals by radical elements. On the other hand, if Bellemares report does not contain much in the way of a smoking gun, its fair to say that Hezbollah and its allies will be able to shape the counter-narrative in an effective way. Its been almost five years since the last conflict with Israel, what are the thoughts amongst Lebanese at present about the immediate future relationship with their southern neighbour? Do they believe future conflict is inevitable? Many Lebanese believe that a future conflict with Israel is just around the corner. Every year, pundits and politicians like to caution about the possibility of a hot summer, meaning that Lebanon will find itself sucked into a war with its neighbour. On the other hand, plenty of Lebanese probably also believe that the new rules of the game established by Israel during the 2006 conflict, coupled with the deterrent capabilities of Hezbollahs military arsenal will likely stave off a major escalation anytime soon. Historically Syria has exercised considerable influence in Lebanon. What are the feelings of the Lebanese towards the current unrest in Syria, and what implications if any will it have for Lebanon? The Lebanese are divided on this question. You certainly have people (particularly the hard-core supporters of March 14th1) who are happy to see the Assad regimes feet being placed in the fire, as they believe that this will weaken Hezbollah in the long-term. For the same reason, Hezbollahs supporters worry about what the future holds for their own fortunes if a major regional ally is taken down. Many Lebanese also are apprehensive about the dangers of a refugee problem, if Syria descends into a major civil conflict. There has been some form of direct foreign military intervention in Lebanon since UNOGIL in 1958. Considering this and the various wars that have occurred since then civil war, wars with Israel and battles with Palestinians can the Lebanese people at this time visualise and develop the cohesive integrated society necessary for a modern States existence, free of foreign intervention? I am optimistic, perhaps naively so, about Lebanons prospects. The way forward to greater sovereignty and stability is not a mystery; everyone recognises that the answer requires institution building, accountability, fighting corruption, and weakening the power of the older political families and religious establishments. Lebanon has a vibrant civil society full of very smart and engaging people, and I hope that they will continue to deploy their creative energies to help solve their countrys problems, one at a time. In an ideal world, where would you see Lebanon in the medium term, say 5-10 years? In an ideal world, within ten years Lebanon would hold two more parliamentary elections on the basis of a revamped electoral law allowing for proportional representation, pre-printed ballots, and other reforms. It would take serious steps toward the full implementation of the Taif Accord2, including the formation of a Senate and the deconfessionalisation of the existing Parliament. A comprehensive solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict (along the lines of the Arab Peace Initiative) would dramatically decrease the potential for armed conflict and instability, which in turn would have a very positive impact on the Lebanese economy (thereby enabling the government to reduce its public debt). The likely scenario, on the other hand, is far less rosy.

Above: Elias Muhanna, author of www.qifanabki.com

1.

The March 14

Alliance , named after the date of the Cedar Revolution, is a coalition of political parties and independents in Lebanon that call for sovereignty over all Lebanese territories, led by MP Saad Hariri, younger son of Rafik Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon who was assassintaed in 2005.
2.

The Taif Agreement

was an agreement reached to provide the basis for the ending of the civil war and the return to political normalcy in Lebanon. Negotiated in Taif, Saudi Arabia, it was designed to end the decades-long Lebanese civil war, politically accommodate the demographic shift to a Muslim majority, reassert Lebanese authority in South Lebanon (then occupied by Israel), and stipulated that the Syrians withdraw within two years. It was signed on October 22, 1989 and ratified on November 4, 1989.

32 |

| SUMMER 11 |