1QFY2012 Result Update | Infrastructure

July 20, 2011

IRB Infrastructure
Performance Highlights
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Op. profit Net profit 1QFY12 801.3 329.4 134.2 1QFY11 512.0 229.3 117.5 4QFY11 767.0 314.7 102.8 % chg (yoy) 56.5 43.7 14.2 % chg (qoq) 4.5 4.7 30.6

NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 6,212 1.1 312.8/145.1 449,681 10 18,502 5,567 IRBI.BO IRB@IN

`187 -

Source: Company, Angel Research

IRB Infrastructure (IRB) on a consolidated basis reported a strong performance on all fronts, which was in line with our estimates, but well ahead of consensus. Top-line growth was led by a whopping 80.9% yoy jump in C&EPC revenue. The bottom line also reported impressive performance on account of robust top-line growth, higher other income and lower tax provision (24.6%). Impressive show on all fronts: IRB reported robust top-line growth of 56.5% yoy to `801.3cr (`512.0cr), marginally ahead of our estimate of `766.6cr. This stellar performance was led by stupendous 80.9% yoy growth in the C&EPC segments revenue to `597.2cr (`330.1cr), against our expectations of `533.5cr. We believe the construction segment has posted robust numbers due to significant contribution (50 60%) from the Surat Dahisar project, which is nearing completion, and pick-up in execution of other under-construction projects. IRBs operating margin came in at 41.1% (44.8%), slightly lower than our estimate of 42.3%, due to higher contribution from the low-margin C&EPC segment. Interest cost come in at `117.4cr (`66.1cr), up 77.6% yoy because of increased debt (`380cr400cr) and MTM loss of `8cr10cr. IRB reported healthy yoy growth of 19.1% to `180.0cr (`151.2cr) and 14.2% to `134.2cr (`117.5cr) at the PBT and PAT levels, respectively, against our estimates of `168.1cr and `117.8cr. Outlook and valuation: NHAI has begun FY2012 on an aggressive note by awarding projects of ~1,000kms in April and May 2011. This is in-line with NHAIs revised target of ~11,000kms for FY2012, an increase of whopping 117% over FY2011. IRB, being one of the market leaders, is expected to gain from the same. Further, IRB has a robust order book (excluding O&M orders) of `11,171cr (6.7x FY2011 construction revenue), which lends high revenue visibility for the next twothree years. However, owing to the recent run-up in the stock price (IRBs stock has increased by ~16.1% in the last one month as against a return of 5.7% by the Sensex), we believe the upside from current levels is limited and, hence, we recommend Neutral.

Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 74.8 6.6 13.7 4.9

Abs. (%) Sensex IRB

3m (5.0)

1yr 3.5

3yr 33.6 31.7

(7.0) (31.2)

Key financials (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2010 1,705 71.9 385.4 119.2 46.9 11.6 16.1 3.0 20.4 13.2 5.1 10.8

FY2011 2,438 43.0 452.4 17.4 44.9 13.6 13.7 2.6 20.2 14.2 4.0 8.8

FY2012E 2,999 23.0 423.2 (6.5) 44.4 12.7 14.7 2.2 16.2 12.1 3.7 8.3

FY2013E 3,995 33.2 482.9 14.1 38.3 14.5 12.9 2.0 16.2 11.9 3.1 8.1

Shailesh Kanani
022-39357800 Ext: 6829 shailesh.kanani@angelbroking.com

Nitin Arora
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 nitin.arora@angelbroking.com

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 1: 1QFY2012 performance (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Income from Operations Total Expenditure Operating Profit OPM (%) Interest* Depreciation Non Operating Income Nonrecurring items/Dividend from SPV's PBT Tax PAT Share of Profits/ (Losses) of Asso. Share of Profits/ (Losses) of MI PAT after MI and Share of Assoc. PAT (%) FDEPS (`) 1QFY12 801.3 471.9 329.4 41.1 117.4 60.2 28.2 180.0 44.3 135.7 1.6 134.2 16.7 4.0 1QFY11 512.0 262.7 229.3 44.8 66.1 53.7 21.7 20.0# 151.2 30.3 120.8 3.3 117.5 22.9 3.5 12.3 (53.1) 14.2 (620)bp 14.2 % chg(yoy) 56.5 79.6 43.7 (370)bp 77.6 12.2 30.2 19.1 4QFY11 767.0 452.3 314.7 41.0 139.8 58.7 22.9 139.0 33.6 105.5 2.7 102.8 13.4 3.1 28.7 (42.5) 30.6 330bp 30.6 % chg(qoq) 4.5 4.3 4.7 10bp (16.0) 2.6 23.3 29.5 FY2011 2,438.1 1,344.2 1,093.9 44.9 357.2 225.4 64.5 575.8 111.7 464.1 11.7 452.4 18.6 13.6 FY2010 1,704.9 905.8 799.1 46.9 249.4 181.9 49.0 416.7 13.4 403.4 17.9 385.4 22.6 11.6 % chg(yoy) 43.0 48.4 36.9 (200)bp 43.2 23.9 31.7 38.2 736.6 15.1 17.4 (400)bp 17.4

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: #Dividend of `20cr from SPV is deducted from operating profit and has been put under extraordinary income, *Interest cost for 4QFY2011 includes `54cr of MTM loss on the Mumbai Pune project and 1QFY2012 includes MTM loss of `8cr10cr

Exhibit 2: Segmental revenue break-up

Particulars Construction Segment BOT Segment Total Income Construction Segment BOT Segment EBITDA Construction Segment (%) BOT Segment (%) EBITDAM (%) Construction Segment BOT Segment Financial Expenses Construction Segment BOT Segment Depreciation & Amortisation Construction Segment BOT Segment PBT Construction Segment BOT Segment PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research

1QFY12 597.2 232.4 829.5 154.8 202.9 357.7 25.9 87.3 43.1 28.5 88.9 117.4 13.7 46.5 60.2 112.6 67.4 180.0 76.6 57.6 134.2

1QFY11 330.1 203.6 533.7 95.2 175.8 271.0 28.8 86.3 50.8 5.9 60.2 66.1 11.0 42.7 53.7 78.4 72.8 151.2 56.0 61.6 117.5

% chg 80.9 14.2 55.4 62.6 15.4 32.0 (290)bp 100bp (770)bp 385.3 47.6 77.6 24.8 9.0 12.2 43.7 (7.4) 19.1 36.9 (6.4) 14.2

4QFY11 578.4 211.5 789.9 146.0 191.6 337.6 25.2 90.6 42.7 25.2 114.6 139.8 14.9 43.8 58.7 105.8 33.2 139.0 73.4 29.4 102.8

% chg 3.2 9.9 5.0 6.0 5.9 6.0 70bp (330)bp 40bp 12.8 (22.4) (16.0) (8.1) 6.2 2.6 6.4 103.0 29.5 4.4 96.1 30.6

FY2011 1,670.4 832.2 2,502.6 428.3 730.1 1,158.4 25.6 87.7 46.3 54.1 303.1 357.2 52.4 173.0 225.4 321.8 254.0 575.9 224.3 228.0 452.4

FY2010 1,024.2 729.7 1,753.8 200.6 647.4 848.0 19.6 88.7 48.4 22.5 226.8 249.4 52.1 129.9 181.9 126.0 290.7 416.7 101.2 284.2 385.4

% chg 63.1 14.1 42.7 113.5 12.8 36.6 600bp (100)bp (210)bp 139.8 33.6 43.2 0.7 33.2 23.9 155.4 (12.6) 38.2 121.8 (19.8) 17.4

20 July, 2011

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 3: 1QFY2012 actual vs. Angel estimates

Parameter Revenue (` cr) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (` cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research

Estimates 767.0 42.3 117.8

Actual 801.3 41.1 134.2

Variation (%) 4.5 (120)bp 13.9

Strong top-line performance, in-line with estimates

IRB reported robust top-line growth of 56.5% yoy to `801.3cr (`512.0cr), marginally ahead of our estimate of `766.6cr. This stellar performance was led by stupendous 80.9% yoy growth in the C&EPC segments revenue to `597.2cr, against our expectations of `533.5cr. We believe the construction segment has posted robust numbers due to significant contribution (5060%) from the Surat Dahisar project, which is nearing completion, and pick-up in execution of the Amritsar Pathankot, Talegaon Amravati and Jaipur Deoli projects. Further Management has maintained its guidance of 15-20% growth for FY2012, in spite of 1QFY2012s robust performance, and indicated that they may revise it in 3QFY2012. However, we believe the rationale behind this is that owing to the completion of Surat Dahisar and Kolhapur projects, C&EPC revenue will see a dip in the 2H of the year and the other under-construction projects will take some time to compensate for the same.

Exhibit 4: Robust top-line growth led by projects nearing completion

900.0 800.0 700.0 600.0 500.0 400.0 300.0 200.0 100.0 0.0 23.6 80.0 76.5 81.1 56.3 37.8 56.5 90.0 80.0 54.4 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 52.9

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

Net Sales (` cr, LHS)

Growth (yoy %, RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

BOT toll revenue

On the toll collection front, for 1QFY2012, Surat Dahisar, Mumbai Pune and Bharuch Surat projects witnessed 6.8%, 22.9% and 12.8% growth in toll revenue on a yoy basis, respectively. Overall growth in toll income for 1QFY2012 came in at 18.7% yoy, as these projects combined contributed 81.4% to the total revenue and because of the addition of the Tumkur Chitradurga project. Robust growth in the Mumbai Pune project was because of toll hike of 18% from April 2011. The Tumkur Chitradurga project has started contributing to toll revenue from June 2011 and consequently toll revenue for FY2012 is expected to increase to `1,076cr (`832.2cr), up 29.4% yoy.

20 July, 2011

1QFY12

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 5: Road BOT project-wise toll revenue growth

Project Name Surat Dahisar BOT Project^ Mumbai Pune BOT Project Thane Bhiwandi Bypass 4 Lane BOT Project Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project Pune Nashik BOT Project Pune Sholapur BOT Project Nagar Karmala Tembhurni BOT Project Mohol Mandrup Kamtee BOT Project Kharpada Bridge BOT Project Bharuch Surat BOT Project
$

1QFY12 94.2 98.6 15.6 7.0 5.6 4.3 3.7 2.0 2.3 33.6 11.4 278.3
$

1QFY11 88.2 80.2 13.3 7.2 4.8 3.6 3.8 1.7 1.9 29.8 234.5

% chg 6.8 22.9 17.3 (2.8) 16.7 19.4 (2.6) 17.6 21.1 12.8 18.7

4QFY11 98.2 80.2 15.0 7.4 5.5 4.2 3.7 2.1 2.1 35.1 253.5

% chg(qoq) (4.1) 22.9 4.0 (5.4) 1.8 2.4 (4.8) 9.5 (4.3) 9.8

FY2011 364.7 321.5 54.3 28.4 21.2 14.4 14.6 7.7 7.4 130.2 964.4
^

FY2010 333.7 306.3 47.2 27.7 18.1 13.3 13.5 6.3 6.7 66.3 2.2 1.2 842.5

% chg(yoy) 9.3 5.0 15.0 2.5 17.1 8.3 8.1 22.2 10.4 96.4 14.5

Kaman Paygaon BOT Project ** Khambatki Ghat BOT Project * Tumkur Chitradurga# Total
February 20, 2009,

Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: * Concession period of Khambatki Ghat BOT project ended on May 3, 2009, November 22, 2009, # Tumkur Chitradurga Project commissioned on June 4, 2011

Surat-Dahisar commissioned on

Bharuch Surat BOT project commissioned on September 25, 2009, ** Kaman-Paygaon BOT project concession period stopped from

Impressive show on the EBITDA and earnings front

On the operating front, IRBs margins came in at 41.1% (44.8%), slightly lower than our estimate of 42.3%, on account of higher contribution from the low-margin C&EPC segment. The construction segment posted EBITDA margin of 25.9% for the quarter, reporting a yoy dip of 290bp. Also, on the BOT front, the company reported EBITDAM of 87.3% (86.3%). Interest cost came in at `117.4cr (`66.1cr), up 77.6% yoy, higher than our estimates. This was on account of increased debt (`380cr400cr), and MTM loss of `8cr10cr. IRB reported healthy yoy growth of 19.1% to `180.0cr (`151.2cr) and 14.2% to `134.2cr (`117.5cr) at the PBT and PAT levels, respectively, against our estimates of `168.1cr and `117.8cr. This was led by robust top-line performance, higher other income and lower tax provision (24.6%).

Exhibit 6: EBITDA margin steady

350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 53.5 46.2 39.6 51.2 54.5 45.3 48.3 44.8 48.2 60.0 43.9 41.0 41.1 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 -

Exhibit 7: Healthy performance on the earnings front

160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 20.4 16.0 13.6 19.7 19.9 21.1 28.2 22.9 20.2 19.9 16.7 13.4 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 -

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

1QFY12

2QFY09

3QFY09

4QFY09

1QFY10

2QFY10

3QFY10

4QFY10

1QFY11

2QFY11

3QFY11

4QFY11

EBITDA (` cr)

EBITDAM (%, RHS)

PAT (` cr, LHS)

PATM (%, RHS)

Source: Company, Angel Research

Source: Company, Angel Research

20 July, 2011

1QFY12

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

BOT projects update

As per management, the Goa Karnataka project is facing land acquisition issues and the Ahmedabad Vadodra project is under the financial closure stage and will take another 68 months for the same. Hence, FY2012 revenue would be driven by under-construction projects only, and these under development projects would contribute meaningfully only from FY2013, boosting the companys C&EPC revenue.

Outlook and valuation

We are revising our estimates for FY2012, while FY2013 estimates are unchanged. We expect IRB to post revenues of `2,999cr (`2,901cr) for FY2012, mainly to factor in revenues from Tumkur project. Earnings are expected at `423.2cr (`366.4cr) on account of improvement in overall margins, led by higher contribution of BOT revenues and higher other income.

Exhibit 8: Change in estimates

FY2012E Earlier estimates Revenues (` cr) EBITDA margin (%) PAT (` cr)
Source: Company, Angel Research

FY2013E Earlier estimates Revised estimates Variation (%) 3,995.4 38.3 482.9 3,995.4 38.3 482.9 3.4 150bp 15.5

Revised estimates Variation (%) 2,999.4 44.4 423.2

2,900.7 42.9 366.4

NHAI has begun FY2012 on an aggressive note by awarding projects of ~1,000kms in April and May 2011. This is in-line with NHAIs revised target of ~11,000kms for FY2012, an increase of whopping 117% over FY2011. Our valuation of `191/share for the consolidated business uses NPV/EV/EBITDAbased valuation for BOT assets and the C&EPC arm, respectively. We factor in CoE of 14% and a traffic growth rate of 5/6/7% for its BOT assets. Whilst we model revenue growth of 15.1% in FY2012, we expect revenue growth to improve to 45.8% in FY2013 for the C&EPC arm. We expect the C&EPC segments EBITDA margin to come down and normalise at 1921% (still higher than the industrys average on account of controlled costs with concentrated operations, high proportion of in-house projects and strong asset base with own quarries and RMC plants, among others) levels over FY201213. On the BOT front, margins are likely to remain stable even though EBITDA margin on the Ahmedabad Vadodra project is mere 40% for FY2013, given the projects relatively negligible contribution to overall BOT revenue. Overall, blended margins for the company are expected to fall on account of pressure on the C&EPC segments EBITDA margins and change in revenue mix in favour of the C&EPC segment. Moreover, IRBs construction arm has a robust order book of `11,171cr (6.7x FY2011 construction revenue), which lends high revenue visibility. However, owing to the recent run-up in the stock price (IRBs stock has increased by ~16.1% in the last one month as against a return of 5.7 % by the Sensex), we believe the upside from current levels is limited. Hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.

20 July, 2011

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 9: SOTP break-up

Business Segment 4 BOT Projects Kharpada Bridge BOT Project Nagar-Karmala Tembhurni BOT Project Mohol-Mandup-Kamtee BOT Project Pune-Solapur BOT Project Pune-Nashik BOT Project Mumbai-Pune BOT Project Thane Ghodbunder BOT Project Surat Dahisat BOT Project Bharuch-Surat BOT Project IRDP Kolhapur Goa Karnataka Border Pathankot-Amritsar Jaipur Deoli Talegaon-Amravati Tumkur-Chitradurga Ahmedabad Vadodara Total Road BOT Asset Portfolio Valuation Modern Road Makers Pvt.Ltd Land Parcel Valuation Sindhudurg Airport Project Total Source: Company, Angel Research 6.5 EV/EBITDA 1.5x Book Value 1.5x Book Value 3,645 130 15 66 Methodology NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV NPV ` cr 248 23 60 39 68 165 937 203 243 46 364 3 86 283 59 362 0 IRB's stake (%) 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 `/share 7.5 0.7 1.8 1.2 2.0 5.0 28.2 6.1 6.6 1.4 10.9 0.1 2.6 8.5 1.8 10.9 (18.7) 76.5 109.6 3.9 0.7 190.7 57.5 2.0 0.4 100.0 % to Target Price 3.9 0.4 0.9 0.6 1.1 2.6 14.8 3.2 3.5 0.7 5.7 0.0 1.4 4.5 0.9 5.7 (9.8)

Exhibit 10: Key assumptions

Project Status KM Issuing Auth. State Concession (Yrs) Con. Start Con. End TPC (` cr) Equity (` cr) Debt (` cr) Grant (` cr) Traffic Growth (%) Toll inc (%) Int Rate (%) 4 BOT Projects Oper. 24 PWD Mah. 18.5 Jan-99 May-17 104 34 70 7% 5% Kharpada Oper. 1 MORTH Mah. 17.8 Nov-97 Aug-15 32 10 22 5% 0% NKT Oper. 60 PWD Mah. 15.0 Nov-01 Dec-16 37 15 22 4% 5% MMK Oper. 33 PWD Mah. 16.0 May-02 May-18 18 7 11 5% 5% PuneSolapur Oper. 26 MORTH Mah. 16.0 Mar-03 Mar-19 63 18 45 2% 3% PuneNashik Oper. 30 MORTH Mah. 18.0 Sep-03 Sep-21 74 6 68 7% 5% MumbaiPune Oper. 206 MSRDC Mah. 15.0 Aug-04 Aug-19 1,292 105 1,187 5% #18% 10.6% Thane Ghod Oper. 15 MSRDC Mah. 15.0 Dec-05 Dec-20 249 32 217 7% 3% BharuchSurat Oper. 65 NHAI Gujarat 15.0 Jan-07 Jan-22 1,470 198 1,272 7% 5% 10.8% Surat Dahisat Under Dev. 240 NHAI Guj./Mah 12.1 Feb-09 Mar-21 2,460 960 1,500 $ 9% 5% 10.8% IRDP Kolhapur Under Dev. 50 MSRDC Mah. 30.0 Jan-09 Jan-39 430 172 258 (27.0) 7% 5% 11.5% Goa Karnataka Under Dev. 69 NHAI Goa 30.0 Apr-13 Apr-43 821 335 300 186.3 7% 5% 10.5% PathankotAmritsar Under Dev. 102 NHAI Punjab 20.0 Apr-10 Mar-30 1,442 391 924 126.9 7% 5% 10.5% Jaipur Deoli Under Dev. 146 NHAI Rajasthan 25.0 Apr-10 Mar-35 1,705 499 900 306.0 7% 5% 10.5% TalegaonAmravati Under Dev. 67 NHAI Mah. 22.0 Apr-10 Mar-32 885 194 475 216.0 7% 5% 10.5% TumkurChitradurga Under Dev. 114 NHAI Karnataka 26.0 Jun-11 May-37 1,142 311 831 140.4 7% 5% 10.8% A'bad Baroda Under Dev. 102 NHAI Gujarat 25.0 Apr-12 Apr-37 4,920 1,420 3,500 @ 7/6/5% 5% 10.5%

Source: Company, Angel Research, Note: # Once in 3 years; $ IRB had shared 38% of its FY2011 revenues with the NHAI and the same increases by 1% every year; @ IRB is expected to pay a sum of `309.6cr to NHAI from FY2013 onwards and the sum increases by 5% every year

20 July, 2011

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 11: Angel EPS forecast vs. consensus

Angel forecast FY2012E FY2013E
Source: Company, Angel Research

Bloomberg consensus 14.9 16.3

Variation (%) 16.8 12.5

12.7 14.5

Investment arguments
Vast opportunity in the road sector IRB the prime beneficiary: IRB has some of the very high-density, strategically aligned road stretches in its gamut. These high-density stretches reduce the average payback period for a typical road BOT project. NHAI has targeted to award orders worth ~`57,000cr (~8,000kms) till January 2012 and another 1,000kms on Annuity/EPC basis projects are also expected to be awarded in FY2012. However, it should be noted that there has been a further increase in the yearly target for the NHAI with the intervention of PMO from ~9,000kms to ~11,000kms for FY2012, i.e. whopping 117% more than that awarded in FY2011. These additional projects will require investments worth `16,000cr. We believe these targets are aggressive, considering NHAIs past performance and capacity constraints. However, given the focus and impetus on the road sector, the magnitude of opportunity for the players cannot be undermined and IRB being one of the market leaders is expected to gain from the same. Integrated road play: IRB has an integrated business model, wherein the internal construction arm, MRMPL, undertakes EPC work relating to secured road BOT projects. While the time-bound construction work of secured road BOT projects lends revenue visibility for the construction arm, any prior completion of construction work ushers in revenue upsides from the road BOT (toll) segment. We believe via this integrated business model, the company captures the complete value chain of road development.

Concerns
1) Delay in order awarding: IRB being a road-focused player is dependent on NHAI for road awarding activity. Thus, any slowdown from NHAIs end would affect IRBs order inflow. However, given the huge bidding pipeline of NHAI, IRB should perform well, as it is one of the market leaders. Commodity price increases: The increase in commodity prices cement (20%), steel (10%) and bitumen (15%) in the last 34 months has resulted in lower EBITDA margin across the sector. Any further increase would put more pressure on margins. However, due to the escalation clause built in the model, IRB has been able to hold on to its margins. Though to be on the conservative side, we have factored in a margin dip of 440bp and 230bp in the C&EPC arm for FY2012 and FY2013, respectively.

2)

20 July, 2011

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Exhibit 12: Recommendation summary

Company CCCL HCC IRB Infra IVRCL JP Assoc. Punj Lloyd NCC Sadbhav Simplex In. Patel Engg Madhucon L&T ITNL CMP 32 34 187 69 76 74 84 145 306 144 87 225 TP Rating FY11 - Neutral - Neutral - Neutral 100 108 109 161 404 117 308 Buy Buy Buy Accu. Buy Buy Accu. Buy 2,199 4,093 2,438 5,651 8,166 5,074 2,209 4,896 3,499 1,705 4,049 Top-line (` cr) FY12E 2,433 4,722 2,999 6,275 FY13E CAGR (%) 2,946 5,485 3,995 7,494 15.8 15.8 28.0 15.2 19.0 16.0 16.9 13.9 17.2 1.2 24.3 22.3 26.4 2.5 1.2 13.6 5.9 3.1 (1.5) 6.4 8.0 25.1 18.4 6.9 58.2 22.3 EPS (`) FY11 FY12E FY13E CAGR (%) 2.6 0.8 12.7 6.2 5.1 3.7 5.9 8.4 24.1 15.5 7.5 68.3 25.0 4.2 1.3 14.5 8.2 6.8 5.9 7.3 9.7 36.7 23.0 8.7 82.5 26.1 28.8 6.4 3.3 17.5 48.8 6.9 10.3 21.0 11.8 12.6 19.0 8.1 12.5 3.5 7.8 7.2 24.7 7.9 9.0 12.2 3.3 5.7 22.9 2.4 Adj. P/E 12.4 5.0 8.3 6.8 14.7 20.2 8.5 8.5 12.7 4.0 5.3 19.5 2.1 7.5 3.1 7.3 5.2 11.1 12.5 6.9 7.4 8.3 2.7 4.5 16.2 2.0 OB/ 2.3 4.0 4.2 2.8 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.7 3.7 3.0 5.5 FY11 FY12E FY13E Sales(x)

13,217 15,860 18,708 9,585 10,992 5,856 2,602 5,373 3,272 2,069 4,908 6,939 2,865 6,721 3,587 2,632 6,467

- Neutral

- Neutral

1,798 2,030

44,265 56,137 66,161

Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 13: SOTP break-up

Company ` CCCL HCC IRB Infra IVRCL JP Assoc. Punj Lloyd NCC Sadbhav Simplex In. Patel Engg Madhucon L&T ITNL 38 11 110 74 32 96 76 87 404 61 70 1,567 136 Core Const. % to TP 100 26 58 73 30 100 70 54 100 43 60 77 44 ` 23 31 2 47 2 Real Estate % to TP 58 29 2 33 2 ` 6 77 8 73 16 33 148 Road BOT % to TP 16 40 8 46 11 28 48 Invst. In Subsidiaries ` 5 27 463 % to TP 2 27 23 ` 44 23 19 12 24 Others % to TP 41 21 14 10 8 Total ` 38 40 191 100 108 96 109 161 404 143 117 2,030 308

Source: Company, Angel Research

20 July, 2011

1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Profit & loss statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Net Sales Other operating income Total operating income % chg Total Expenditure Net Raw Materials Other Mfg costs Personnel Other EBITDA % chg (% of Net Sales) Depreciation& Amortisation EBIT % chg (% of Net Sales) Interest & other Charges Other Income (% of PBT) Share in profit of Associates Recurring PBT % chg Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) PBT (reported) Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Add: Share of earnings of asso. Less: Minority interest (MI) Prior period items PAT after MI (reported) ADJ. PAT % chg (% of Net Sales) Basic EPS (`) Fully Diluted EPS (`) % chg FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 733 733 139.7 321 159 39.2 95.3 27.4 412 148.9 56.2 101.6 310 174.8 42.3 195.8 52.0 31.2 166.5 273.4 166.5 40.0 24.0 126.5 12.6 113.9 113.9 403.9 15.5 4.2 4.2 357.3 992 992 35.4 554 305 57.0 134.5 57.6 437 6.2 44.1 114.4 323 4.1 32.6 137.7 29.6 13.8 214.9 29.1 214.9 37.8 17.6 177.2 1.3 175.8 175.8 54.4 17.7 5.3 5.3 26.6 1,705 1,705 71.9 906 450 65.4 283.8 106.4 799 82.7 46.9 181.9 617 91.0 36.2 249.4 49.0 11.7 416.7 93.8 416.7 13.3 3.2 403.4 17.9 385.4 385.4 119.2 22.6 11.6 11.6 119.2 2,438 2,438 43.0 1,344 413 176.7 721.5 70.0 1,094 36.9 44.9 225.4 869 40.7 35.6 357.2 64.5 11.2 575.8 38.2 575.8 111.7 19.4 464.1 11.7 452.4 452.4 17.4 18.6 13.6 13.6 17.3 2,999 2,999 23.0 1,669 843 183.0 478.4 165.0 1,330 21.6 44.4 388.9 941 8.4 31.4 447.6 77.4 13.5 571.2 (0.8) 571.2 137.1 24.0 434.1 11.0 423.2 423.2 (6.5) 14.1 12.7 12.7 (6.5) 3,995 3,995 33.2 2,465 1,338 247.7 659.2 219.7 1,530 15.0 38.3 432.3 1,098 16.6 27.5 521.3 92.9 13.9 669.5 17.2 669.5 174.1 26.0 495.4 12.5 482.9 482.9 14.1 12.1 14.5 14.5 14.1

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Balance sheet (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital Preference Capital Reserves& Surplus Shareholders Funds Minority Interest Total Loans Deferred Tax Liability Total Liabilities APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block Less: Acc. Depreciation Net Block Capital Work-in-Progress Goodwill Investments Current Assets Cash Loans & Advances Other Current liabilities Net Current Assets Misc. Exp. not written off Total Assets 2,219 334 1,885 889 198 959 522 375 62 260 699 2 3,673 2,460 444 2,016 1,455 111 1,033 415 399 218 321 712 1 4,294 4,019 551 3,467 880 45 1,148 510 438 199 482 666 1 5,060 5,536 788 4,748 1,122 55 2,038 1,200 635 203 794 1,244 1 7,171 8,426 1,177 7,249 131 61 1,924 711 960 253 977 947 1 8,388 8,426 1,609 6,817 2,204 67 2,268 653 1,279 336 1,301 967 1 10,055 332.4 1,288 1,621 28 2,021 3 3,673 332.4 1,398 1,730 60 2,486 18 4,294 332.4 1,708 2,040 78 2,915 27 5,060 332.4 2,100 2,433 90 4,626 23 7,171 332.4 2,444 2,776 90 5,499 23 8,388 332.4 2,848 3,180 90 6,762 23 10,055 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

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1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Cash flow statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (` cr) Profit before tax Depreciation Change in Working Capital Less: Other income Direct taxes paid Cash Flow from Operations (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments Other income Cash Flow from Investing Issue of Equity Inc./(Dec.) in loans Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) Others Cash Flow from Financing Inc./(Dec.) in Cash Opening Cash balances Closing Cash balances FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 167 102 42 52 40 134 (433) (157) 52 (538) 1,090 (497) 3 63 653 250 272 522 215 114 120 30 38 142 (807) 87 30 (690) (1) 465 65 43 441 (107) 522 415 417 182 (141) 49 13 677 (984) 66 49 (869) 429 76 (66) 288 95 415 510 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 564 225 (112) 64 112 725 (1,760) (10) 64 (1,705) (0) 1,710 76 36 1,670 690 510 1,200 560 389 191 77 137 543 (1,898) (6) 77 (1,826) 873 79 794 (489) 1,200 711 657 432 78 93 174 744 (2,073) (6) 93 (1,986) 1,264 79 1,184 (58) 711 653

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Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) W.cap cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.9 3.6 1.6 1.2 4.7 2.3 1.2 3.0 2.5 1.4 3.1 2.4 1.7 3.6 2.1 1.9 4.0 2.1 0.3 15 39 118 78 0.4 47 5 77 87 0.5 40 5 58 48 0.5 25 5 87 15 0.4 22 6 118 17 0.5 21 5 103 25 9.3 14.3 11.4 8.1 13.8 10.5 13.2 20.3 20.4 14.2 20.4 20.2 12.1 15.2 16.2 11.9 14.9 16.2 42.3 76.0 0.3 8.1 6.6 3.3 13.4 32.6 82.4 0.3 7.6 5.0 1.1 10.3 36.2 96.8 0.4 14.2 8.9 1.2 20.4 35.6 80.6 0.5 13.3 7.6 1.3 20.6 31.4 76.0 0.4 10.5 6.7 1.6 16.4 27.5 74.0 0.5 9.5 6.3 1.8 15.4 3.4 3.4 6.5 0.0 48.8 5.3 5.3 8.7 1.5 52.1 11.6 11.6 17.1 1.5 61.4 13.6 13.6 20.4 2.0 73.2 12.7 12.7 24.4 2.0 83.5 14.5 14.5 27.5 2.0 95.7 54.5 28.8 3.8 0.0 10.5 18.7 2.1 35.3 21.4 3.6 0.8 8.4 18.9 1.9 16.1 10.9 3.0 0.8 5.1 10.8 1.7 13.7 9.2 2.6 1.1 4.0 8.8 1.3 14.7 7.6 2.2 1.1 3.7 8.3 1.3 12.9 6.8 2.0 1.1 3.1 8.1 1.2 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E

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1QFY2012 Result Update | India Research

Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800

E-mail: research@angelbroking.com

Website: www.angelbroking.com

DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered

IRB Infra No No No No

Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.

Ratings (Returns):

Buy (> 15%) Reduce (-5% to 15%)

Accumulate (5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

Neutral (-5 to 5%)

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