Crompton Greaves
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT
Source: Company, Angel Research
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (yoy) 5.9 (38.8) (545)bp (58.4) 4QFY11 2,908 373 12.8 290 % chg (qoq) (16.2) (51.3) (537)bp (72.6)
`181 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Capital Goods 11,630 0.7 349/171 1,592,078 2.0 18,436 5,542 CROM.BO CRG@IN
Crompton Greaves (CG) reported a dismal performance for 1QFY2012; well below our expectations, with a disappointing performance on the profitability front. On a consolidated basis, the company posted modest growth of 5.9% yoy to `2,438cr (`2,302cr), which was broadly in-line with our estimate of `2,486cr. However, a sharp increase in raw-material costs affected the companys margins considerably, denting CGs overall profitability during the quarter. We recommend Neutral on the stock. Negative surprise on margins; Unimpressive show by the power segment: Led by high raw-material costs, EBITDA margin for the quarter witnessed a steep decline of 545bp yoy to 7.5%, which was well below our estimate of 12.5%. The margin erosion can mainly be attributed to the power systems segment, which contracted sharply by around 800bp yoy to 2.6%. Weak performance delivered through overseas subsidiaries (flat growth and negative OPM) largely contributed to the dull operating performance on a consolidated front. Consequently, EBITDA declined by 38.8% yoy to `182cr (`297cr). Consequently, PAT also fell sharply by 58.4% yoy to `79cr (`191cr). Outlook and valuation: The T&D equipment segment is witnessing challenging times, characterised by heightened competition, pricing pressures and delayed tendering from PGCIL. Industry commentary suggests that ordering is likely to pick up post 1HFY2012 on the back of increased activity at PGCILs, which should stabilise CGs power segment. However, a tough macro environment and competitive pressures in the overseas T&D markets (which contribute substantially to CGs revenue) would weigh heavily in the near-to-medium term. Though we believe CG to be an underperformer, the stock has corrected significantly and further downside seems limited. Hence, we recommend Neutral.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 40.9 28.6 23.2 7.3
3m (5.9) (16.9)
FY2010 9,141 4.6 825 47.3 14.0 12.9 14.1 4.7 44.4 43.7 1.2 8.7
FY2011 10,005 9.5 927 12.4 13.4 14.4 12.5 3.6 33.8 34.3 1.1 8.5
FY2012E 10,940 9.3 632 (31.8) 9.3 9.9 18.4 3.1 18.1 19.6 1.0 11.1
FY2013E 12,406 13.4 980 55.0 12.1 15.3 11.9 2.6 23.7 26.7 0.9 7.2
Hemang Thaker
+91 22 3937 7600 Ext: 6817 hemang.thaker@angelbroking.com
1QFY12 2,438 2,438 (272) 1,610 54.9 322 13.2 306 12.5 2,256 182 7.5 11 61 15 125 5.1 48 37.9 79 3.2 0.0 79 1.2
1QFY11 2,302 2,302 (89) 1,197 48.1 299 13.0 287 12.5 2,005 297 12.9 5 42 18 269 11.7 79 29.5 191 8.2 0.0 191 3.0
% chg (yoy) 5.9 5.9 34.5 7.6 6.5 12.5 (38.8) 118.6 46.4 (17.3) (53.5) (40.1) (58.4) 0.0 (58.4) (58.4)
4QFY11 2,908 2,908 15 1,495 51.9 272 9.4 366 12.6 2,535 373 12.8 7 60 47 353 12.1 68 19.4 251 9.8 381 290 4.5
% chg (qoq) (16.2) (16.2) 7.7 18.4 (16.4) (11.0) (51.3) 51.7 1.8 (67.7) (64.5) (30.5) (68.4) 0.0 (72.6) (72.6)
FY11 10,005 10,005 (96) 5,174 51.7 1,181 11.8 1,211 12.1 8,661 1,344 13.4 21 194 100 1,229 12.3 310 25.2 889 8.9 381 927 14.4
FY10 9,141 9,141 22 4,624 50.6 1,113 12.2 1,158 12.7 7,864 1,277 14.0 26 155 94 1,189 13.0 365 30.7 860 9.4 (352) 825 12.9
% chg (yoy) 9.5 9.5 11.9 6.1 4.6 10.1 5.2 (21.0) 24.9 6.7 3.4 (15.1) 3.3 0.0 12.4 12.4
Lower volumes and realisation hurdled revenue growth: CGs revenue for the quarter was reportedly lower by ~`500cr on the back of lower volumes, which added to the sedate growth for the quarter. Notably, many orders could not be dispatched to certain African countries such as Libya, Morocco, and Algeria due to political crisis prevailing in the region. Lower realisations in the domestic as well as overseas markets further dampened the companys profitability.
1QFY12 569 544 362 2.8 1,477 72 75 58 0.4 205 38.5 36.8 24.5 0.2 12.6 13.9 15.9 12.5 13.9
1QFY11 510 532 311 5.4 1,359 85 80 64 1.0 230 37.5 39.1 22.9 0.4 16.6 15.1 20.6 17.5 16.9
% chg (yoy) 11.5 2.2 16.2 (48.3) 8.7 (15.3) (6.1) (10.4) (63.2) (10.9)
4QFY11 819 551 402 2.7 1,774 148 79 64 0.7 292 46.2 31.0 22.6 0.2 18.1 14.3 16.0 26.8 16.4
% chg (qoq) (30.6) (1.3) (9.9) 4.5 (99.5) (51.5) (4.4) (10.4) (51.4) (29.7)
FY11 2,554 2,021 1,407 17 5,999 460 293 263 3.0 1019 42.6 33.7 23.4 0.3 18.0 14.5 18.7 17.3 17.0
FY10 2,510 1,612 1,174 25 5,322 462 230 260 1.0 953 47.2 30.3 22.1 0.5 18.4 14.3 22.1 4.0 17.9
% chg (yoy) 1.8 25.4 19.8 (31.5) 12.7 (0.4) 27.4 1.0 192.1 6.9
Profitability cracked in the power and industrial segments: The power systems segment posted decent 11.5% yoy growth to `569cr (`510cr); however, the segment witnessed a steep dip of ~400bp yoy in OPM to 12.6% on the back of increased competition and pricing pressures. Management has guided muted activity in the T&D segment for the near term, which may further put pressure on the power systems segment on account of the expected drying up of order inflows from the T&D segment. Likewise, industrial systems also showed improved traction with healthy 16.2% yoy growth to `362cr (`311cr), but axed with ~470bp yoy OPM contraction. We believe that slower investment activity amid a tough macro environment is likely to impact the segment. Consumer segment disappoints sharply: Unlike steady growth since the past several quarters, CG delivered flat growth of 2.2% yoy during the quarter. Lower-than-expected revenue was mainly on account on general inflationary pressures, which spiraled to reduce demand for consumer durables. OPM also eroded by 120bp yoy to 13.9%. Management quoted lower sales volume of fans, which contributes significantly to the segments revenue.
1QFY12 1,517 544 380 5.7 2,446 40 75 51 1 167 62.0 22.2 15.5 0.2 2.6 13.9 13.4 19.9 6.8
1QFY11 1,456 532 321 8.6 2,318 156 80 60 2 297 62.8 22.9 13.9 0.4 10.7 15.1 18.6 18.6 12.8
% chg (yoy) 4.1 2.2 18.3 (33.3) 5.5 (74.2) (6.1) (14.9) (28.3) (43.7)
4QFY11 1,923 551 435 8.5 2,917 257 79 65 (13.8) 387 65.9 18.9 14.9 0.3 13.4 14.3 14.9 (163) 13.3
% chg (qoq) (21.2) (1.3) (12.6) (32.6) (16.2) (84.4) (4.4) (21.6) (108.3) (56.7)
FY11 6,503 2,021 1,497 32 10,053 0.65 807 293 264 (25) 1,339 64.7 20.1 14.9 0.3 12.4 14.5 17.6 (79.1) 13.3
FY10 6,204 1,612 1,259 103 9,179 769 230 276 15 1,290 67.6 17.6 13.7 1.1 12.4 14.3 21.9 14.6 14.1
% chg (yoy) 4.8 25.4 18.9 (69.4) 9.5 4.9 27.4 (4.3) (266.0) 3.8
Overseas subsidiaries reel under pressure: Overall revenue from overseas subsidiaries declined by 910% in euro terms. This was primarily on account of lower volumes (dispatch of shipments to Middles East countries) and lower realisations. Accordingly, profitability turned negative on account of losses at the operating front. The lacklustre performance of overseas subsidiaries weighed heavily on the consolidated numbers power systems growth was dwarfed to 4.1% yoy, while OPM crashed by ~800bp yoy to 2.6%. Notably, the Middle East and African markets account for 10% of the overseas business. Management viewed the deferment in order dispatches as a temporary phenomenon and has guided for normalcy in business operations in these regions in the due course.
Order book: Consolidated order intake for the quarter totaled `2,250cr and unexecuted order backlog at the end of 1QFY2012 stood at `7,088cr. Order backlog of the overseas business stood at `3,574cr, while that for the domestic business stood at `3,514cr. Management has guided a muted near-term outlook and expects better inflows post the revival in the T&D segment.
(` cr)
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
3QFY11
4QFY11
Key Highlights of the conference call Management has guided for an optimistic outlook on the Western Europe market, with healthy growth prospects of distribution transformers. For FY2012, the consolidated top line is estimated to grow by 1012%, while EBITDA margin is expected to come in at 810%. Overseas subsidiaries are expected to post growth of 57% in euro terms. 2QFY2012 is likely to witness similar challenges and a revival is expected post 1HFY2012. Capex for FY2012 is estimated at `300cr400cr on a consolidated level.
1QFY12
Investment concerns
Difficult to make a strong case: Unlike past, it seems that the company has succumbed to the competitive pressures prevailing in the domestic T&D market domestically as well as globally. Lower realisations have also impacted the companys margins, which cast a concern on achieving historic profitability levels. Moreover, the sluggishness is likely to spill to the next quarter, which could further weaken the fundamentals. In addition, the deteriorating macro environment is likely to result in lower-than-expected industrial capex, which will directly impact CGs industrial segment. Importantly, the consumer segment, which has expanded admirably in the past several quarters, has shown weakness in the current quarter exhibiting inflationary pressure, which seems far from moderating in the near term. Finally, insufficient explanation by management towards future outlook as well as the guided margin dip portrays a bleak outlook of the company. Outlook and valuation: The T&D equipment segment is witnessing challenging times, characterised by heightened competition, pricing pressures and delayed tendering from PGCIL. Industry commentary suggests that ordering is likely to pick up post 1HFY2012 on the back of increased activity at PGCILs, which should stabilise CGs power segment. However, a tough macro environment and competitive pressures in the overseas T&D markets (which contribute substantially to CGs revenue) would weigh heavily in the near-to-medium term. Though we believe CG to be an underperformer, the stock has corrected significantly and further downside seems limited. Hence, we recommend Neutral on the stock.
Change in estimates
We have revised our financial estimates based on the current results, overall sector outlook as well as managements guidance. We have slightly tweaked our revenue growth for FY2012E and factored in margin contraction of around 410bp, which is in-line with managements guidance. We have also estimated higher working requirements on the back of increased inventory and debtor levels. We project an improved outlook for FY2013E; however, we revise our estimates downwards on a conservative stance.
FY2012E FY2013E
Source: Company, Angel Research
9.9 15.3
10.5 17.0
(6.1) (10.1)
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
2x
8x
14x
ABB* Areva T&D* BHEL BGR Energy Cromp. Greaves Jyoti Structures KEC International Thermax
Nov-10
20x
Neutral 1,953
Mar-11
Jul-11
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E 407 446 853 (84) (187) 579 (253) (102) 8 (347) (91) (70) (68) (229) 3 241 244 560 598 1,158 6 (217) 944 (198) (140) 16 (322) (137) (81) (83) (302) 321 244 566 860 433 1,293 54 (292) 1,056 (207) (436) 68 (575) (217) (116) (45) (378) 103 566 669 889 512 1,400 (513) (334) 560 (626) (119) 14 (738) (38) (119) (35) (193) (370) 669 298 632 492 1,125 (365) (222) 537 (300) (275) (575) (165) 86 (79) (117) 298 181 980 652 1,632 (155) (347) 1,130 (500) (200) (700) (50) (165) (33) (248) 182 181 363
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value DuPont Analysis(%) EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Pre-tax) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) (X) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to Equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 0.6 0.8 7.9 0.0 0.0 10.8 (0.2) (0.4) 26.2 (0.1) (0.2) 32.7 (0.1) (0.4) 23.5 (0.2) (0.5) 38.8 3.1 53 84 124 26 3.4 45 79 111 19 3.4 43 84 122 16 3.1 42 86 118 23 2.8 48 89 117 32 2.9 49 88 118 34 35.2 43.9 46.9 41.9 55.5 44.8 43.7 66.9 44.4 34.3 47.6 33.8 19.6 24.8 18.1 26.7 35.0 23.7 9.1 66.6 4.7 42.6 28.4 6.0 0.7 44.3 10.0 64.9 5.6 55.9 36.3 6.7 0.2 43.6 12.3 69.3 5.7 70.0 48.5 4.9 (0.1) 43.6 11.5 74.8 4.4 50.7 37.9 5.4 (0.1) 33.8 7.4 72.0 3.6 26.3 18.9 5.3 (0.1) 17.8 10.2 72.0 3.6 37.0 26.6 5.3 (0.1) 23.6 11.1 11.1 14.5 1.6 35.1 15.3 15.3 18.6 2.0 49.5 12.9 12.9 15.3 2.2 38.8 14.4 14.4 17.5 2.2 50.8 9.9 9.9 13.2 2.2 58.1 15.3 15.3 19.0 2.2 70.8 16.3 12.5 5.2 0.9 1.8 16.4 6.5 11.9 9.8 3.7 1.1 1.3 11.7 5.1 14.1 11.9 4.7 1.2 1.2 8.7 3.9 12.5 10.4 3.6 1.2 1.1 8.5 2.9 18.4 13.8 3.1 1.2 1.0 11.1 2.6 11.9 9.5 2.6 1.2 0.9 7.2 2.1 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012E FY2013E
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Crompton Greaves No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
12