We students taking Additional Mathematics are required to carry out a project work while we are in Form 5.

This year the Curriculum Development Division, Ministry of Education has prepared four tasks for us.We are to choose and complete only ONE task based on our area of interest.This project can be done in groups or individually,but each of us are expected to submit an individually written report.Upon completion of the Additional Mathematics Project Work,we are to gain valuable experiences and able to:

y Apply and adapt a variety of problem solving strategies to solve routine and non-routine problems; y Experience classroom environments which are challenging, interesting and meaningful and hence improve their thinking skills. y Experience classroom environments where knowledge and skills are applied in meaningful ways in solving real-life problems y Experience classroom environments where expressing ones

mathematical thinking,reasoning and communication are highly encouraged and expected y Experience classroom environments that stimulates and enhances effective learning. y Acquire effective mathematical communication through oral and writing,and to use the language of mathematics to express mathematical ideas correctly and precisely y Enhance acquisition of mathematical knowledge and skills through problem-solving in ways that increase interest and confidence y Prepare ourselves for the demand of our future undertakings and in workplace y Realise that mathematics is an important and powerful tool in solving real-life problems and hence develop positive attitude towards mathematics. y Train ourselves not only to be independent learners but also to collaborate, to cooperate, and to share knowledge in an engaging and healthy environment y Use technology especially the ICT appropriately and effectively y Train ourselves to appreciate the intrinsic values of mathematics and to become more creative and innovative y Realize the importance and the beauty of mathematics We are expected to submit the project work within three weeks from the first day the task is being administered to us.Failure to submit the written report will result in us not receiving certificate.

The term statistics is ultimately derived from the New Latin statisticum collegium ("council of state") and the Italian word statista ("statesman" or "politician"). The German Statistik, first introduced by Gottfried Achenwall (1749), originally designated the analysis of data about the state, signifying the "science of state" (then called political arithmetic in English). It acquired the meaning of the collection and classification of data generally in the early 19th century. It was introduced into English between 1786 and 1798 by Sir John Sinclair.

Thus, the original principal purpose of Statistik was data to be used by governmental and (often centralized) administrative bodies. The collection of data about states and localities continues, largely through national and international statistical services. In particular, censuses provide regular information about the population.

Claims of evidence for the paranormal are usually based upon statistics which diverge so far from the expectation due to chance that some other mechanism seems necessary to explain the experimental results. To interpret the results of our RetroPsychoKinesis experiments, we'll be using the mathematics of probability and statistics, so it's worth spending some time explaining how we go about quantifying the consequences of chance.

PART 1

(a)

HISTORY OF STATISTIC

By the 18th century, the term "statistics" designated the systematic collection of demographic and economic data by states. In the early 19th century, the meaning of "statistics" broadened, then including the discipline concerned with the collection, summary, and analysis of data. Today statistics is widely employed in government, business, and all the sciences. Electronic computers have expedited statistical computation, and have allowed statisticians to develop "computer-intensive" methods.

The term "mathematical statistics" designates the mathematical theories of probability and statistical inference, which are used in statistical practice. The relation between statistics and probability theory developed rather late, however. In the 19th century, statistics increasingly used probability theory, whose initial results were found in the 17th and 18th centuries, particularly in the analysis of games of chance (gambling). By 1800, astronomy used probability models and statistical theories, particularly the method of least squares, which was invented by Legendre and Gauss. Early probability theory and statistics was systematized and extended by Laplace; following Laplace, probability and statistics have been in continual development. In the 19th century, social scientists used statistical reasoning and probability models to advance the new sciences of experimental psychology and sociology; physical scientists used statistical reasoning and probability models to advance the new sciences of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics. The development of statistical reasoning was closely associated with the development of inductive logic and the scientific method.

Statistics is not a field of mathematics but an autonomous mathematical science, like computer science or operations research. Unlike mathematics, statistics had its origins in public administration and maintains a special concern with demography and economics. Being concerned with the scientific method and inductive logic, statistical

theory has close association with the philosophy of science; with its emphasis on learning from data and making best predictions, statistics has great overlap with the decision science and microeconomics. With its concerns with data, statistics has overlap with information science and computer science.

STATISTIC TODAY
During the 20th century, the creation of precise instruments for agricultural research, public health concerns (epidemiology, biostatistics, etc.), industrial quality control, and economic and social purposes (unemployment rate, econometry, etc.) necessitated substantial advances in statistical practices.

Today the use of statistics has broadened far beyond its origins. Individuals and organizations use statistics to understand data and make informed decisions throughout the natural and social sciences, medicine, business, and other areas.

Statistics is generally regarded not as a subfield of mathematics but rather as a distinct, albeit allied, field. Many universities maintain separate mathematics and statistics departments. Statistics is also taught in departments as diverse as psychology, education, and public health.

STATISTICAL METHODS

Experimental and observational studies

A common goal for a statistical research project is to investigate causality, and in particular to draw a conclusion on the effect of changes in the values of predictors or independent variables on dependent variables or response. There are two major types of causal statistical studies: experimental studies and observational studies. In both types of studies, the effect of differences of an independent variable (or variables) on the behavior of the dependent variable are observed. The difference between the two types lies in how the study is actually conducted. Each can be very effective. An

experimental study involves taking measurements of the system under study, manipulating the system, and then taking additional measurements using the same procedure to determine if the manipulation has modified the values of the measurements. In contrast, an observational study does not involve experimental manipulation. Instead, data are gathered and correlations between predictors and response are investigated.

Experiments

The basic steps of a statistical experiment are: k Planning the research, including finding the number of replicates of the study, using the following information: preliminary estimates regarding the size of treatment effects, alternative hypotheses, and the estimated experimental variability. Consideration of the selection of experimental subjects and the ethics of research is necessary. Statisticians recommend that experiments compare (at least) one new treatment with a standard treatment or control, to allow an unbiased estimate of the difference in treatment effects. k Design of experiments, using blocking to reduce the influence of confounding variables, and randomized assignment of treatments to subjects to allow unbiased estimates of treatment effects and experimental error. At this stage, the experimenters and statisticians write the experimental protocol that shall guide the performance of the experiment and that specifies the primary analysis of the experimental data. k Performing the experiment following the experimental protocol and analyzing the data following the experimental protocol. k Further examining the data set in secondary analyses, to suggest new hypotheses for future study. k Documenting and presenting the results of the study.

Experiments on human behavior have special concerns. The famous Hawthorne study examined changes to the working environment at the Hawthorne plant of the Western Electric Company. The researchers were interested in determining whether increased illumination would increase the productivity of the assembly line workers. The researchers first measured the productivity in the plant, then modified the illumination in an area of the plant and checked if the changes in illumination affected productivity. It turned out

that productivity indeed improved (under the experimental conditions). However, the study is heavily criticized today for errors in experimental procedures, specifically for the lack of a control group and blindness. The Hawthorne effect refers to finding that an outcome (in this case, worker productivity) changed due to observation itself. Those in the Hawthorne study became more productive not because the lighting was changed but because they were being observed.

Levels of measurement
There are four types of measurements or levels of measurement or measurement scales used in statistics: k k k k nominal ordinal interval ratio

They have different degrees of usefulness in statistical research. Ratio measurements have both a zero value defined and the distances between different measurements defined; they provide the greatest flexibility in statistical methods that can be used for analyzing the data. Interval measurements have meaningful distances between measurements defined, but have no meaningful zero value defined (as in the case with IQ measurements or with temperature measurements in Fahrenheit). Ordinal measurements have imprecise differences between consecutive values, but have a meaningful order to those values. Nominal measurements have no meaningful rank order among values.

Since variables conforming only to nominal or ordinal measurements cannot be reasonably measured numerically, sometimes they are called together as categorical variables, whereas ratio and interval measurements are grouped together as quantitative or continuous variables due to their numerical nature.

Key terms used in statistics Null hypothesis

Interpretation of statistical information can often involve the development of a null hypothesis in that the assumption is that whatever is proposed as a cause has no effect on the variable being measured.

The best illustration for a novice is the predicament encountered by a jury trial. The null hypothesis, H0, asserts that the defendant is innocent, whereas the alternative hypothesis, H1, asserts that the defendant is guilty.

The indictment comes because of suspicion of the guilt. The H0 (status quo) stands in opposition to H1 and is maintained unless H1 is supported by evidence "beyond a reasonable doubt". However, "failure to reject H0" in this case does not imply innocence, but merely that the evidence was insufficient to convict. So the jury does not necessarily accept H0 but fails to reject H0.

Error
Working from a null hypothesis two basic forms of error are recognised:

k k

Type I errors where the null hypothesis is falsely rejected giving a "false positive". Type II errors where the null hypothesis fails to be rejected and an actual difference between populations is missed.

Confidence intervals
Most studies will only sample part of a population and then the result is used to interpret the null hypothesis in the context of the whole population. Any estimates obtained from the sample only approximate the population value. Confidence intervals allow statisticians to express how closely the sample estimate matches the true value in the whole population. Often they are expressed as 95% confidence intervals. Formally, a 95% confidence interval of a procedure is any range such that the interval covers the true population value 95% of the time given repeated sampling under the same conditions. If these intervals span a value (such as zero) where the null hypothesis would be confirmed

then this can indicate that any observed value has been seen by chance. For example a drug that gives a mean increase in heart rate of 2 beats per minute but has 95% confidence intervals of -5 to 9 for its increase may well have no effect whatsoever.

The 95% confidence interval is often misinterpreted as the probability that the true value lies between the upper and lower limits given the observed sample. However this quantity is more a credible interval available only from Bayesian statistics.

Significance
Statistics rarely give a simple Yes/No type answer to the question asked of them. Interpretation often comes down to the level of statistical significance applied to the numbers and often refer to the probability of a value accurately rejecting the null hypothesis (sometimes referred to as the p-value).

When interpreting an academic paper reference to the significance of a result when referring to the statistical significance does not necessarily mean that the overall result means anything in real world terms. (For example in a large study of a drug it may be shown that the drug has a statistically significant but very small beneficial effect such that the drug will be unlikely to help anyone given it in a noticeable way.)

PART 2

a) As the selling price,

increases, the estimated yearly demand,  

decreases.

Thus we can say that the relationship is inversely proportional as shown below

If graph of s against d is plotted, a straight line will be formed

s against d
5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 75 125 200 250 1000 2000 3500 4500

Based on graph 1, the curve of the graph shows a curve, proving the relationship of against is inversely proportional. In which means that as the selling price

increases, the estimated yearly demand will decrease.

b) Cost of the computer product = RM50 per unit Express yearly profit, , in terms of selling price, . 50  is the estimated

Where

is the total profit,

is the selling price per unit and

yearly demand. For example below

Selling Price Per Unit, , (RM) 75 125 200 250

Estimated Yearly Demand, , (Units) 4500 3500 2000 1000

Total Sales ( )

Total Cost (50 )

Profit ( = )

337,500 437,500 400,000 250,000 Table 1

225,000 175,000 100,000 50,000

112,500 262,500 300,000 200,000

Based on Table 1.1 calculation has been made to calculate the total profit using the formula = . It was found that the maximum profit can be obtained is

when the selling price is RM200 per unit. Thus, Warisan RMN should sell each computer component at a price of RM 200 to ensure the amount of user buying the component is at maximum to produce maximum profit. Although, the selling price was RM75 and the demand was 4500, the profit earned is still not as high as the previous one.

c) First method to determine the maximum profit is to produce a lot of computer component at a time. However, the company should ensure that they have already gained a place in the users heart so that they will purchase. This keeps the demand running on and on thus preventing wastage of natural resources. We

should keep in mind that excessive production does not guarantee a 100% reward. If production is too high and the demand for the certain product is low, it might cause losses due to lack of demand. Therefore, an advice for new companies is to produce minimum but rewarding amount of product. After the company gains the users trust, then the company can start producing huge amount of product. However, provision should be made for demand and economic crisis. Then only a maximum profit can be determined.

The second method is profit maximization. It is a process by which a firm determines the price and output level that returns the greatest profit. There are several approaches to this problem. The total revenue - total cost method relies on the fact that profit equals revenue minus cost, and the marginal revenue marginal cost method is based on the fact that total profit in a perfectly competitive market reaches its maximum point where marginal revenue equals marginal cost. Any costs incurred by a firm may be classed into two groups: fixed cost and variable cost. Fixed costs are incurred by the business at any level of output, including zero output. These may include equipment maintenance, rent, wages, and general upkeep. Variable costs change with the level of output, increasing as more products are generated. Materials consumed during production often have the largest impact on this category. Total cost is the total when fixed cost and variable cost are combined.

d) Referring to table 1.1, the maximum profit is obtained at the selling price of 200. In order to obtain maximum profit, the selling price should be allocated in between RM125 and RM250. This is because the highest profit is in between the selling price of RM125 and RM250.

PART 2 a) The total interest incurred is calculated through the formula below 


Where is total interest, number of months.

is the total month for monthly payment and

for the

For example loan amount of RM10,000 for 12 months payment where each month repayment is RM1034.00 

=12 ( =

1034)

12,408

Total Loan RM 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Total interest incurred (RM) 12 months 2,408 4,804 7,200 9,608 12,004 24 months 4,808 9,616 14,400 19,208 24,016 36 months 7,208 14,416 21,624 28,832 36,004 48 months 9,632 19,216 28,800 38,432 48,016 60 months 12,020 24,040 36,000 48,020 60,040

Table 2

b) To calculate the average interest rate per month, a table in drawn and data are inserted. Average rate of interest per month is calculated as follow using the formula below. 

Indicator means average rate of interest per month means total interest incurred which can be obtained from table 1.2 means the total loan and lastly means the total number of months of repayment

Total Loan RM 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

Average interest rate per month 12 months 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 24 months 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% Table 3 36 months 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 48 months 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 60 months 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

From the results above, we can conclude that the percentage of interest incurred is 2% for each period of repayment. Besides, the total amount of interest needed to pay exceeds the loan when the total repayment months are 60. Thus, this means that the percentage of interest incurred is same for all loan regardless of the repayment period.

c) Total Loan RM 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 60,000 65,000 70,000 75,000 80,000 85,000 90,000 95,000 100,000 Total interest incurred (RM) 12 months 2,400 3,600 4,800 6,200 7,200 8,400 9,600 10,800 12,000 13,200 14,400 15,600 16,800 18,000 19,200 20,400 21,600 22,800 24,000 24 months 4,800 7,200 9,600 12,000 14,400 16,800 19,200 21,600 24,000 26,400 28,800 31,200 33,600 36,000 38,400 40,800 43,200 45,600 48,000 36 months 7,200 10,800 14,400 18,000 21,600 25,200 28,800 32,400 36,000 39,600 43,200 46,800 50,400 54,000 57,600 61,200 64,800 68,400 72,000 48 months 9,600 14,400 19,200 24,000 28,800 33,600 38,400 43,200 48,000 52,800 57,600 62,400 67,200 72,000 76,800 81,600 86,400 91,200 96,000 60 months 12,000 18,000 24,000 30,000 36,000 42,000 48,000 54,000 60,000 66,000 72,000 78,000 84,000 90,000 96,000 102,000 108,000 114,000 120,000

Table 4 (Interest rates are based on Table 3)

d) Profit in year 2009 = RM200,000 20% of the profit = RM 40,000 Purpose of provision of 20% = loan repayment Assumption = making the same profit in the same following years i. The table below shows the maximum amount of profit earn in 5 years Year 2009 Profit earn for the year Total profit Provision for repayment Table 5 200,000 40,000 400,000 80,000 600,000 120,000 800,000 160,000 1,000,000 200,000 200,000 2010 200,000 2011 200,000 2012 200,000 2013 200,000

If the Warisan RMN chooses to repay in 1 year time, I would recommend them to make loan of RM 30,000. This is because the amount needed to return back is RM37,200 (RM30,000+RM7,200) including interests. This does not exceed the provision set by the company.

For the second choice of repayment is 2 years time. For this choice, I recommend the company to request a loan of RM50,000. The total amount needed to repay is RM74,000 (RM50,000+RM24,000) inclusive of interests.

For the third choice of repayment is 3 years time. I recommend the company to request a loan of RM65,000. The amount needed to repay is RM111,800 (RM65,000+RM46,800)

For the fourth choice is to repay within 4 years time. In this case, I suggests that a loan of RM80,000 should be made. The amount of money needed to repay is RM156,800 (RM80,000+RM76,800).

For the last choice is to pay within 5 years time. I will urge the company to make a loan of RM 90,000. The total repayment amount is RM198,000 (RM90,000+RM108,000)

In conclusion, all the reason above is within the provision for repayment. Thus it can be summarised into a table as follows.

Period of Repayment (Year)

Year

Profit For The Year

Total Provision For Repayment

Total Loan (RM)

Total Interest

Total Amount of

Incurred Repayment (RM 7,200 24,000 46,800 76,800 108,000 37,200 74,000 111,800 156,800 198,000

1 2 3 4 5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000

40,000 80,000 120,000 160,000 200,000 Table 6

30,000 50,000 65,000 80,000 90,000

ii.

Based on the the company, Warisan RMN situation, the firm needs a substantial amount of money for capital investment. Therefore, I, as the manager of the company, should choose the best choice for the company thus can make more profit from the loan and the repayment should not be a burden to the company. Based on the Table 1.6, we can see that the amount of repayment does not exceed the provision for repayment. Therefore, I would choose to make a loan of RM90,000 with a repayment within 5 years or 60 months. In this case, the total interests incurred is RM108,000. When we sum it up, the total is RM198,000. For RM198,000, we can divided into 60 months which is the repayment period. So in that case, we need to pay RM3,300 per month. Besides, we can make use of

the loan by investing to make new computer components which can be very profitable.

e) Situation The company has set aside a reserve fund of RM50,000 in a bank an earns monthly interest beginning 1st January 2010. Interest rate: 2.5% Problem: Amount of the reserve fund at the end of each month until 31st December 2010. From the situation above, we can conclude that the amount of money in the bank increases by 2.5% per annum. Thus the information can be shown in a table form

Month

Amount of money in the beginning of the month

Amount of interest (RM)

Total amount of money at the end of the month

January February March April May June July August September October November December 1 Year

50,000.00 50,104.17 50,208.34 50,312.51 50,416.68 50,520.85 50,625.02 50,729.19 50,833.36 50,937.53 51,041.70 51,145.87 50,000.00 Table 7

104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 104.17 1,250.00

50,104.17 50,208.34 50,312.51 50,416.68 50,520.85 50,625.02 50,729.19 50,833.36 50,937.53 51,041.70 51,145.87 51,250.00 51,250.00

The amount of interest obtained for a year is RM1,250. If it would be divided into 12 months, the amount will be RM10416 which is an infinite number. To make it rational number, I made some adjustment where the first 11 months will receive RM104.17 as interests and the last month which is December we will receive an interest of RM104.13. Sum it up we will get RM1,250 (RM104.1711 + RM103.13 =RM1,250)

REFLECTION
After spending countless hours,days and night to finish this project and also sacrificing my time video games and mangas in this mid year holiday,there are several things that I can say... Additional Mathematics... From the day I born... From the day I was able to holding pencil... From the day I start learning... And... From the day I heard your name... I always thought that you will be my greatest obstacle and rival in excelling in my life... But after countless of hours... Countless of days... Countless of nights... After sacrificing my precious time just for you... Sacrificing my Computer Games... Sacrificing my Video Games... Sacrificing my Facebook... Sacrificing my Internet... Sacrifing my Anime... Sacrificing my Manga... I realized something really important in you... I really love you... You are my real friend... You my partner... You are my soulmate... I LOVE U ADDITIONAL MATHEMATICS...