Technical trend

Equity Market: India

LTP Daily Change (Pts.) Daily Change (%)

(05th July 2011) Daily Update

Dow Jones Nasdaq S&P 500 FTSE 100 DAX Brazil Mexico HangSeng Nikkei Kospi Taiwan Strait Times Sensex Nifty
Commdty/ Forex Market

11383 2556 1200 5393 6414 52811 33322 20922 9329 1945 7891 3022 17693 5331
LTP

-512 -136 -60 -191 -225 -3205 -1161 -962 -330 -72 -426 -84 -247 -73
Daily Change (Pts.)

-4.31 -5.08 -4.78 -3.43 -3.40 -5.72 -3.37 -4.41 -3.42 -3.62 -5.12 -2.73 -1.38 -1.35
Daily Change (%)

Global Market: U.S Market plunged sharply Thursday, with the Dow down more than 500 points, in its worst one-day drop since December 2008. All three major averages tumbled into negative territory for the year as investors were rattled over an intensifying global economic slowdown and ahead of the widely-followed monthly unemployment report. Technically Weekly chart reveals negative divergence exist in DJIA and presently heading towards 2 years old trend line support at 11800, breach of which would be extremely negative for the market. Indian Market: Closing Brief: Concerns about corporate earnings growth, high food inflation and data showing stepping up selling by foreign institutional investors spooked the market with the barometer index BSE Sensex and the 50-unit S&P CNX Nifty hitting 6-week lows. The market breadth turned negative from positive breadth earlier in the day. Short Term Outlook: Elliot wave study project two possible alternatives that might dictate the next direction in the market. First being the Descending triangular correction where the crucial support level of 5177 might act as the support in days to come and might limit the downside potential in Nifty. Secondly present correction being a double combination correction where the first correction ended in Zig-Zag formation while the second could be a flat or triangle correction where downside being limited till 5177. A third alternative might lead to a double Zig-Zag formation at the break of 5177 and might drag down till 4700. Outlook for the day: Bearish long Engulfing candle also characterized by a Marubazu candle with rise in volume. Nifty breached all crucial support levels to continue the downward rally for 4th consecutive day and filled the gap created during June2011. Nifty yesterday intensified the selling pressure after breaching 61.8% retracement level at 5404. All momentum indicators has entered into oversold region after the sharp sell-off witnessed during the last couple of days. ADX still trading below 20 and rising with a sell crossover indicating bears to dominate. Band Bollinger has provided an outside day bar from the lower panel of the band indicating an oversold situation in the market. However with a continuous lower low and lower top formation in daily chart it is preferable to follow the trend rather than finding bottom in a global sell-off situation. For the day Nifty to open gapdown as all international markets are sharply lower. Trend deciding level in the market exist at 5177, successive close below which would further intensify the selling pressure. Support/Resistance levels of Indian Equity Indices S1 S2 CMP R1 R2 Sensex 17475 17184 17693 17955 18075 Nifty 5265 5177 5331 5410 5447 Nifty (Fut) 5273 5183 5337 5417 5455

Gold ($/Oz) Silver ($/Oz) Copper Fut. Crude INR/ USD YEN / USD USD/ EUR

1646.20 39.19 421.95 107.61 44.55 79.02 1.40

-12.80 -0.24 -1.60 0.36 0.23 0.14 -

-0.77 -0.61 -0.38 0.34 0.53 0.17 -

Events to Watch for the Day

U.S. Market Event Employment Situation Consumer Credit Estimate 75000 $ 5.0 B Prior 18000 $ 5.1 B

Market Trend
SHORT TERM (Less than 1 month) MEDIUM TERM (3-6 months) LONG TERM (2-5 yrs.) DOWN UP UP

Market Breadth
Advances Declines Unchanged 52 Week High 52 Week Low

BSE
1127 1705 135 46 190

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Institutional Research Technical Analysis SECTORWISE PERFORMANCE

0.5 A U T O BK AE N X C D 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 -3

Equity Market : India

Last 3 day's Sectorw ise Performance

FG M C C G O A I&S L G H C P S U PE OR W RT EY A L ML E T A I T Tk E C

02.08.11

03.08.11

04.08.11

SECTOR OUTLOOK
BSE SECTORAL INDICES
AUTO

TREND (ST)*
DOWN

SHORT TERM OUTLOOK

BANKEX CD

CONSOILDATE/ DOWN UP/CONSOLIDATE

CG

UP/CONSOLIDATE

FMCG

UP/CONSOLIDATE

HC

SIDEWAYS/ CONSOLIDATE SIDEWAYS/ CONSOLIDATE DOWN/CONSOLIDATE SIDEWAYS/ CONSOLIDATE SIDEWAYS

IT MEATAL OIL&GAS POWER

PSU REALTY TECH

CONSOLIDATE/ DOWN CONSOLIDATE/DOWN UP

Index had been in lower top lower bottom formation and has breached the crucial 61.8% retracement level at 8740. M&m, Bajajauto, Ashokleyland, Amtekauto and Apollotyre can be the better pick from the sector. Double bottom formnation exist in weekly chart around 18000, breach of which could witnesss further selling pressure. HDFCbank, Axisbank, BOB, BOI, FederalBank, has an upside potential. Prices trading within a rising channel formation and heading higher. However, momentum indicators are in overbought territory. Titan, Rajeshexpo, Vipind, Gitanjali, Bajajelect, Whirlpool need to be accumulate for an upside rally. After taking multiple support around 12500 the index has provided a pullback. Presently trendline resistance exist at 13500, breach of which could witness further upside in the sector. LT, Bhel, Crompgraeves, Suzlon, Thermax, Havells, Punjlloyd are in bullish formation. Multiple resistance of 3800 being breached and presently prices are trading above it. Rising channel formation is also noticed in daily chart where lower panel of the channel coincides around 3800. Nestleind, Dabur, Godrejcp need to be accumulated from present levels. The index is trading above 200SMA and with a possible pennat formation in the daily chart. The sector is in bullish formation and crucial support exist at 6250. Sunpharma, Cipla, Glaxo, Ranbaxy, CadilaDivislab, Glenmark, Ipcalab, Fortis are looking good at current levels. Index has taken support from 5900 and recovering, trade above 200SMA at 6190 can be labeled as trend change. TCS and OFSS might rally from current level. Symmetrical triangle formation is underway with support at 14500 might act as the end of 3rd leg of the pattern. Hindalco, NMDC, Hindzinc, Welcorp might rally from current levels. Presently the index seems to be in a consoldation phase after taking support from 9100 level. Oscillators are still in neutral territiory. Reliance, Gail, Cairn, Petronet. Gap created around May 2009 at 2450-2500 has been providing support in the sector, sustaining above which would be considered as trend reversal. Bhel, NTPC, Tatapower, Suzlon, Jswenergy, are looking good. Oscillators turning weak from equilibrium level. However downside might be limited till 8200. Scrip specific movement in likely. Crucial support exist at 1890, breach of which could be further negative for the sector. HDFC, Phoenixmill, GodrejProp, Parsvnath looking good. Sector has provided a bounce back from crucial support level of 3500, the rally might extend till 200 SMA at 3730. Infosystch, Bhartartl, Wipro, Hcltech looking good.

STOCKS TO WATCH FOR THE DAY: Strong Stocks S1 S2 BPCL 683 GAIL 462 Weak Stocks RANBAXY M&M

675 457

CMP 688.60 467

R1 695 470

R2 702 477

528 670

520 662

532.75 679.45

546 690

556 700

Institutional Research Technical Analysis

Equity Market : India

TOP PICK OF THE DAY

YESBANK: (CMP 302.35)

Strategy: Short Term sell call sell at cmp with stop loss 309 for the Target of 283 & 275

Support: 297 & 290

Resistance: 306 & 314

INFY: (CMP 2709.15)

Strategy: Short term sell call sell at cmp with stop loss 2775 for the Target 2600 & 2570

Support: 2680 & 2640

Resistance: 2725 & 2760

PREVIOUS DAYS RECOMMENDATION: FOLLOW- UPS Technical Call SKUMARSNYF TVSMOTOR Recommendation Buy Buy Remarks Recommended at 59 Recommended at 53 Profit / Loss (%) -3.72 (on closing basis) -0.18 (on closing basis)

Institutional Research Technical Analysis

Equity Market : India

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