Blue Wolfe20100331 SSM-8-3

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY
ASSET ALLOCATION & SECTOR SELECTION

March 31, 2010
THE SELL-SIDE SENTIMENT BAROMETER

AN IN-DEPTH LOOK AT ANALYSTS PRICE TARGETS AND EARNINGS ESTIMATES
One of the most important tools an investor must have in the arsenal is a way to gauge sentiment. Knowledge of whether an investment is consensus or contrarian is essential in this business, as it can make the difference between picking an outperformer or market performer. There are many surveys of market sentiment that do a fairly good job of tracking bullish/bearish conditions for the overall indices, but there are very few tools available that do the same for sectors, industries and stocks. While there is some value in looking at indicators like "short interest ratios" or "implied vols", they have many shortcomings. One proxy that can be used to gauge sentiment at the sector, industry or even stock level is the price targets of sell-side analysts. The difference between today's market price and analysts price targets can be used as an approximation of sentiment on any segment of the market.
Analysts Expect The S&P 500 To Rise 12% In The Next 12 Months And Are Most Bullish On Energy!
1600 1500
1400
1300 1200 1100 1000
Dispersion amongst analysts bottomsup estimates remains high
H: 1545 Mean 1287 L: 1000
1600 1500
Analysts 12m Expected Return
1400
1300 1200 1100 1000
900
800 700 600 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 S&P 500 Price Index
Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Portfolio Strategy.
900
still, on aggregate, the sell-side has double-digit returns baked in for the S&P 500.
Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11
800 700 600
Analy sts' 12-Month Target
Energy Materials Technology Health Care Index (S&P 500) Telecom Utilities Financials Staples Industrials Discretionary
19.1% 13.0% 12.5% 11.8% 11.5% 10.0% 9.8% 9.4% 9.2% 6.6% 6.5%
Sentiment most bullish on Energy and Materials and least bullish for Industrials & Discretionary!
Aggregating mean price targets for all S&P 500 stocks shows that sell-side analysts are looking for the index to rise 11.5% in the next twelve months. While this is above the S&P 500's long-term growth rate of about 7% it is not extremely elevated in the context of recent memory. At the sector level, the energy sector is the sell-side favorite, with an expected return of 19% in the next 12 months. The Consumer Discretionary and Industrials sectors are the two with the most conservative expectations. In the following pages, we highlight expectations for industries and stocks for each of the ten GIC sectors. The extremes are sometimes breathtaking as one can find a stock with expectations of 40% upside or with 10% downside in the same sector. We aim to publish an update of the sentiment work on a monthly basis. As always, a full list that details analysts expectations for earnings and price targets is available for those interested. Email us at strategy@wolfetrahan.com to sign up.
Franois Trahan (646) 845-0731 ftrahan@WolfeTrahan.com WolfeTrahan.com Michael Kantrowitz, CFA (646) 845-0732 mkantrowitz@WolfeTrahan.com Stephen Gregory (646) 845-0733 sgregory@WolfeTrahan.com Joe Ramirez (646) 845-0734 jramirez@WolfeTrahan.com Page 1 of 13
This report is limited for use solely by clients of Wolfe Trahan & Co. Please refer to the end of this report for legal disclosures and analyst certifications.
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: THE SELL-SIDES LEAST FAVORITE SECTOR

Although analysts as a whole have the lowest expected 12-month return for the Discretionary sector, there are a still a handful of stocks in the group in which they see a lot of upside. At the industry level, analysts have the highest expectations (i.e., price targets) for Diversified Consumer Service companies and Internet & Catalog Retail. In contrast, prices have moved beyond the sell-sides targets for Autos as of late. According to their current estimates, this group is overvalued today.
Expected Returns By Industry (12-Month)

Div ersified Consumer Services Internet & Catalog Retail Media Household Durables Sector Multiline Retail Textiles Apparel & Luxury Goods Specialty Retail Auto Components Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Distributors Leisure Equipment & Products Automobiles -7.4% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 15.5% 15.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.5% 6.4% 5.8% 5.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0%
Price Target For LTD Has Risen Much Faster Than Sector
Limited Brands (LTD)
0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.12 0.11 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.06
0.05 0.04
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.05 0.04
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Relativ e Performance
Relativ e Mean Analy st Target to Sector
Expected 12-Month Return
From our database, we are able to not only see what analysts price targets are, but also which companies have the highest and lowest projected EPS growth in the next year. The tables below highlight the stocks with the highest and lowest price and EPS expectations in the Discretionary sector.
Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected 12-Month Returns
Highest Expected Return Ticker GCI APOL Name Gannett Co Apollo Group Inc -Cl A Intl Game Technology Expedia Inc Amazon.Com Inc Industry Media Diversified Consumer Services Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Internet & Catalog Retail Internet & Catalog Retail Market Cap 3,592.93 9,274.51 5,205.32 6,439.12 52,569.60 Price 16.79 62.21 18.50 24.44 136.48 Target 21.80 77.35 22.29 28.94 160.11 E(r) 30% 22% 21% 19% 18%
Please email us at
strategy@wolfetrahan.com
IGT EXPE AMZN
for more detail on price target (expected return) and EPS estimates at the sector, industry and/or stock level.
Lowest Expected Return Ticker HOT F ODP EK SHLD Name Starwood Hotels&Resorts Wrld Ford Motor Co Office Depot Inc Eastman Kodak Co Sears Holdings Corp Industry Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Automobiles Specialty Retail Leisure Equipment & Products Multiline Retail Market Cap 7,228.58 39,543.45 1,983.60 1,595.67 11,002.05 Price 47.41 13.35 8.20 5.86 109.31 Target 41.00 11.69 6.88 4.33 66.80 E(r) -11% -14% -16% -28% -39%
Analysts are expecting a lot of good news from GCI and APOL! Are their targets too high or are analysts ahead of the curve?
Highest & Lowest Analysts Earnings Expectations

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker HOG WYNN NYT IPG CBS Name Harley-Davidson Inc Wynn Resorts Ltd New York Times Co -Cl A Interpublic Group Of Cos Cbs Corp Industry Automobiles Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Media Media Media Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker MAR CMCSA HRB WYN HOT Name Marriott Intl Inc Comcast Corp Block H & R Inc Wyndham Worldwide Corp Starwood Hotels&Resorts Wrld Industry Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Media Diversified Consumer Services Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Hotels Restaurants & Leisure Price 31.85 18.70 17.85 25.97 47.41 EPS 0.94 1.26 1.48 1.80 1.01 NTM EPS 0.93 1.24 1.37 1.63 0.66 Growth -1% -2% -7% -9% -34% Price 28.21 77.55 11.17 8.44 14.13 EPS 0.06 0.23 0.25 0.15 0.50 NTM EPS 1.05 0.66 0.64 0.32 0.94 Growth 1653% 186% 155% 112% 88%
Starwood Hotels (HOT): A lot of downside already being recognized by analysts!
WolfeTrahan.com
Portfolio Strategy | March 31, 2010
Page 2 of 13
CONSUMER STAPLES: EVERY INDUSTRY HAS LOWER PRICE EXPECTATIONS THAN THE S&P 500!
It is no surprise that the expectations for Staples are below the market. As the economy recovers, the less cyclical industries (i.e., more defensive stocks) usually see lower growth rates. At the industry level, the sell-side is most bullish on Beverages and least optimistic on Personal Products. A stock worth highlighting is Estee Lauder (EL). Its relative mean price target has risen sharply since 2009 alongside relative performance and now sits at the highest level since the last peak in 2000.

Beverages Sector Tobacco Food Products Household Products Food & Staples Retailing Personal Products 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.6% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 9.2% 10.6%
Expectations For EL Shooting Up Relative To Sector!

Estee Lauder Cos. (EL)
0.33 0.33
0.28
8.5% 8.0% 7.9% 7.9%
Analysts relative target for EL is at the highest level since 2000.
0.28
0.23 0.18 0.13
0.23 0.18 0.13
0.08
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.08
Within the Staples sector, analysts have the largest upside price targets in Archer-Daniel Midland (AMD, +27%) and Lorillard (LO, +17%). There are also a handful of short-opportunities that the sell-side sees in the Staples sector, particularly on Supervalu Inc. (SVU, -10%) and Hershey (HSY, -9%).
Highest Expected Return Ticker ADM LO Name Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Lorillard Inc Molson Coors Brewing Co Kroger Co Dean Foods Co
Name Coca-Cola Enterprises Inc Sara Lee Corp Whole Foods Market Inc Hershey Co Supervalu Inc
Industry Food Products Tobacco Beverages Food & Staples Retailing Food Products
Lowest Expteced Return Industry Beverages Food Products Food & Staples Retailing Food Products Food & Staples Retailing
Market Cap 18,878.48 11,394.24 7,486.45 14,201.45 2,638.66

Market Cap 12,553.42 9,455.74 6,045.97 9,065.20 3,237.24
Price 28.78 74.94 42.19 21.34 15.76

Price 27.83 13.98 36.23 43.01 16.65
Target 37.00 87.88 48.18 24.37 17.94

Target 26.50 13.06 33.64 39.09 14.71
E(r) 27% 17% 15% 14% 14%

E(r) -6% -6% -7% -9% -10%
Please email us at
TAP KR DF
Ticker CCE SLE WFMI HSY SVU
Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected EPS Growth

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker TSN WFMI ADM DPS AVP Ticker DF SJM TAP PG SVU Name Tyson Foods Inc -Cl A Whole Foods Market Inc Archer-Daniels-Midland Co Dr Pepper Snapple Group Inc Avon Products Name Dean Foods Co Smucker (Jm) Co Molson Coors Brewing Co Procter & Gamble Co Supervalu Inc Industry Food Products Food & Staples Retailing Food Products Beverages Personal Products Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Industry Food Products Food Products Beverages Household Products Food & Staples Retailing Price 15.76 60.24 42.19 63.60 16.65 EPS 1.60 4.38 3.80 4.19 2.23 NTM EPS 1.54 4.19 3.47 3.79 1.94 Growth -4% -4% -9% -10% -13% Price 19.14 36.23 28.78 35.38 34.06 EPS 0.98 0.96 2.19 1.97 1.72 NTM EPS 1.37 1.30 2.84 2.36 2.04 Growth 39% 35% 30% 20% 19%
Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM): Analysts see an earnings recovery bolstering the stock price in the coming year!
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 3 of 13
ENERGY: THE SELL-SIDES FAVORITE SECTOR!

The sell-sides fundamental analysts are the most bullish on Energy stocks, expecting gains of over 19% in the next year. As a side note, we know that oil prices are the major driver of the Energy sector so we did a simple regression to determine what price of oil was consistent with 19% upside from here. We found that this expected return is an implicit forecast for a 27% gain in oil prices. This would suggest that analysts may be modeling oil prices near $100 by 2011.
Analysts Expecting $100 Oil By 2011?
SLBs Relative Target Is Rising Back To 07/08 Levels

Schlumberger Ltd. (SLB)
0.22 0.22
0.20
0.18 0.16
0.20
0.18 0.16
0.14
0.12 0.10
0.14
0.12 0.10
0.08
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.08
At the industry level, Energy Equipment and Services have the highest expected return at 27% followed by Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels at 17.1%. Looking at the Energy stocks, analysts expect huge gains in names such as CHK and COG while they believe that BJS and SII are overvalued today.
Highest Expected Return Ticker Name Chesapeake Energy Corp Cabot Oil & Gas Corp Southwestern Energy Co Nabors Industries Ltd Halliburton Co
Name Valero Energy Corp Fmc Technologies Inc Sunoco Inc Bj Services Co Smith International Inc
Industry Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Energy Equipment & Services Energy Equipment & Services
Lowest Expected Return Industry Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Energy Equipment & Services Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Energy Equipment & Services Energy Equipment & Services
Market Cap 17,208.64 4,160.67 14,717.06 6,270.40 27,195.29

Market Cap 9,893.59 6,843.13 3,083.84 6,416.07 10,175.11
Price 23.16 36.71 40.15 19.38 30.08

Price 19.88 65.01 28.76 20.96 42.58
Target 35.25 54.00 58.07 27.49 41.28

Target 20.45 64.13 28.56 18.75 37.28
E(r) 51% 45% 43% 41% 38%

E(r) 3% 2% -1% -10% -12%
Analysts believe these names are the most undervalued
CHK COG SWN NBR HAL

Ticker
Contact us at
and these stocks are the most overvalued!
VLO FTI SUN BJS SII

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker BJS MEE MRO HES APA Name Bj Services Co Massey Energy Co Marathon Oil Corp Hess Corp Apache Corp Industry Energy Equipment & Services Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Price 20.96 52.78 31.40 62.04 99.60 EPS 0.06 1.04 1.62 2.28 5.60 NTM EPS 0.59 2.76 3.47 4.18 9.26 Growth 881% 166% 114% 83% 65%
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker NOV RDC COG EP XTO Name National Oilwell Varco Inc Rowan Cos Inc Cabot Oil & Gas Corp El Paso Corp Xto Energy Inc Industry Energy Equipment & Services Energy Equipment & Services Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Oil Gas & Consumable Fuels Price 40.48 28.56 36.71 10.77 47.12 EPS 3.94 2.98 1.72 1.29 3.58 NTM EPS 3.23 2.37 1.26 0.88 2.01 Growth -18% -21% -27% -32% -44%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 4 of 13
FINANCIALS: ANALYSTS PREFER FINANCIAL MARKETS TO REAL ESTATE MARKETS

Its clear from analysts expected returns that they believe more in the capital markets recovery than they do in the real estate recovery. The industry groups with the largest expected returns are Capital Markets and Diversified Financials. In contrast, analysts price targets for Real Estate companies indicate they are overvalued. Net-net, analysts believe the sector will rise by 9.4% over the next year.

Capital Markets
Diversified Financial Services Sector Consumer Finance Thrifts & Mortgage Finance Insurance Commercial Banks Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Real Estate Management & Development -6.6% -9.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 4.9% 2.1% 9.4% 16.2% 16.0%
Capital Ones Relative Target Near Past Peak Levels

Capital One Financial Corp (COF)
0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.11 0.23 0.21 0.19 0.17 0.15 0.13 0.11
9.3%
9.3%
0.09 0.07
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.09 0.07
-15.0% -10.0% -5.0%
Bulge bracket banks rank at the top of the list of companies with the largest expected returns. Both Morgan Stanley (MS) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are expected to gain over 20% by this time next year. At the other end of the spectrum, REITs dominate the list of stocks where analysts believe stocks are too expensive. There are four REITs with downside price targets greater than 10%.
Highest Expected Return Ticker MS GS STT IVZ XL Name Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs Group Inc State Street Corp Invesco Ltd Xl Capital Ltd Industry Capital Markets Capital Markets Capital Markets Capital Markets Insurance Market Cap 38,341.55 80,538.08 22,227.47 8,218.27 6,250.51 Price 29.06 171.54 45.69 21.65 18.68 Target 36.45 211.45 55.81 25.75 22.35 E(r) 24% 21% 21% 20% 19%
Many of the REIT stocks are at or above the highest analyst price target this does not occur very often! (AVB, HST, AIV, KIM)
Lowest Expteced Return Ticker AVB HST AIV AIG KIM Name Avalonbay Communities Inc Host Hotels & Resorts Inc Apartment Invt &Mgmt -Cl A American International Group Kimco Realty Corp Industry Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Insurance Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Market Cap 6,638.09 7,568.17 1,944.05 3,345.71 5,632.85 Price 87.05 14.74 18.44 34.25 16.02 Target 76.53 12.86 15.49 28.75 13.38 E(r) -12% -12% -16% -17% -17%

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker DFS COF GNW HIG AXP Name Discover Financial Svcs Inc Capital One Financial Corp Genworth Financial Inc Hartford Financial Services American Express Co Industry Consumer Finance Consumer Finance Insurance Insurance Consumer Finance
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker XL GS PNC PLD FITB Name Xl Capital Ltd Goldman Sachs Group Inc Pnc Financial Svcs Group Inc Prologis Fifth Third Bancorp Industry Insurance Capital Markets Commercial Banks Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Commercial Banks Price 18.68 171.54 58.31 13.43 13.22 EPS 2.68 21.77 4.34 1.61 0.71 NTM EPS 2.30 18.44 3.61 0.73 (0.22) Growth -14% -15% -17% -55% -131%
Price 15.11 41.98 17.45 27.99 41.20
EPS 0.24 0.67 0.42 1.31 1.54
NTM EPS 0.81 2.12 1.15 3.22 2.67
Growth 239% 217% 175% 146% 73%
AVB is not only above its mean analyst price target it is also right at the highest analyst target on the Street as of yesterday! This hasnt happened since 2006! Email us for the chart!
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 5 of 13
HEALTH CARE: SELL-SIDE STILL FAVORS THE PERENNIAL UNDERPERFORMERS (PHARMA!)

The sell-side expects Health Care stocks to outperform the market over the next 12 months. The largest expected returns are forecasted to come from the Pharmaceuticals and Biotechnology industries. Analysts expect Life Science Tools & Services to lag the group the most.

Pharmaceuticals Biotechnology Sector Health Care Providers & Services
BSXs Relative Target Is At A 10-Year Low

14.2%
Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX)

0.14 0.14
12.8% 11.8% 11.8% 7.2% 5.7% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
0.12
0.10 0.08
0.12
0.10 0.08
0.06
0.04
0.06
0.04 0.02
Health Care Equipment & Supplies

Life Sciences Tools & Servic es 0.0%
0.02
0.00
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.00
At the stock level, Pfizer (PFE) is expected to see the largest price appreciation over the next 12 months while Millipore (MIL) is the most overvalued according to the sell-side. Tenet Healthcare is one that makes both lists below stocks with the highest price and EPS gains over the next year. Notice that the stocks with the largest forecasted upside price appreciation are generally larger in size.
Highest Expected Return Ticker PFE THC GILD UNH ABT Name Pfizer Inc Tenet Healthcare Corp Gilead Sciences Inc Unitedhealth Group Inc Abbott Laboratories
Name Perkinelmer Inc
Industry Pharmaceuticals Health Care Providers & Services Biotechnology Health Care Providers & Services Pharmaceuticals
Lowest Expteced Return Industry Life Sciences Tools & Services
Market Cap 141,628.40 2,535.58 42,837.24 38,837.42 84,197.40

Market Cap 2,599.08
Price 17.20 5.79 45.62 33.18 52.80

Price 24.32 346.76 57.68 26.80 105.65
Target 22.25 7.32 55.56 39.13 63.07

Target 24.00 338.67 56.71 25.69 97.00
E(r) 29% 24% 21% 19% 19%

E(r) -1% -3% -3% -5% -8%
Contact us at
Ticker PKI
ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc Health Care Equipment & Supplies 13,364.89 for more detail on BIIB Biogen Idec Inc Biotechnology 15,119.77 price target (expected BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Co Pharmaceuticals 42,010.13 MIL Millipore Corp Life Sciences Tools & Services 5,257.50 return) and EPS estimates at the Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected EPS Growth sector, industry Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker Name Industry Price and/or stock level.
THC ESRX ISRG CELG MYL Tenet Healthcare Corp Express Scripts Inc Intuitive Surgical Inc Celgene Corp Mylan Inc Health Care Providers & Services Health Care Providers & Services Health Care Equipment & Supplies Biotechnology Pharmaceuticals 5.79 101.55 346.76 62.17 22.64
Tenet Healthcare (THC): Analysts see an earnings recovery bolstering the stock price in the coming year!
EPS 0.14 3.52 5.93 2.08 1.30
NTM EPS 0.22 4.92 7.78 2.63 1.59
Growth 60% 40% 31% 27% 22%
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker UNH HUM BSX KG CAH Name Unitedhealth Group Inc Humana Inc Boston Scientific Corp King Pharmaceuticals Inc Cardinal Health Inc Industry Health Care Providers & Services Health Care Providers & Services Health Care Equipment & Supplies Pharmaceuticals Health Care Providers & Services Price 33.18 47.15 7.22 11.89 36.36 EPS 3.24 6.15 0.50 1.10 2.94 NTM EPS 3.07 5.50 0.42 0.92 2.24 Growth -5% -11% -15% -16% -24%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 6 of 13
INDUSTRIALS: ANALYSTS STILL FAVOR THE FOREIGN-FOCUSED INDUSTRY GROUPS

In aggregate, analysts expect the Industrials sector to underperform the S&P 500. Overall, the sector is expected to return 6.6%, much lower than the expected return of 12% for the market. Historically, this sector has had strong exposure to foreign sales, which has done well for the sector in the past. Analysts continue to favor those industries within the sector that are highly levered towards foreign sales.

Construction & Engineering Commercial Services & Supplies Industrial Conglomerates Air Freight & Logistics Road & Rail Sector Machinery Electrical Equipment Professional Servic es Aerospace & Defense Trading Companies & Distributors Airlines -3.0% Building Products -6.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% 11.9% 11.2% 10.0% 8.1% 6.8% 6.6% 4.7% 3.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.4%
3Ms Expectations Have Begun To Fall From Recent Highs

3M Co. (MMM)
0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.40 0.35 0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.20
0.15
0.10
1999
4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0%
0.10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
While Airlines and Building Products have negative expected returns over the next 12 months, it is important to note these industries constitute the smallest portion of the Industrials sector. While the sector has the second lowest expected return amongst the ten GICS sectors, there are still a few stocks within the sector that analysts believe will outperform in the next year (see table below).
Highest Expected Return Ticker PWR RRD IRM SNA ITW Name Quanta Services Inc Donnelley (R R) & Sons Co Iron Mountain Inc Snap-On Inc Illinois Tool Works Industry Construction & Engineering Commercial Services & Supplies Commercial Services & Supplies Machinery Machinery Market Cap 3,990.76 4,091.37 5,267.79 2,437.99 22,866.33 Price 19.13 21.58 27.41 43.60 47.50 Target 24.53 27.00 34.20 51.70 56.36 E(r) 26% 26% 23% 20% 19%
Lowest Expected Return Ticker BA RHI NOC MAS PCAR Name Boeing Co Robert Half Intl Inc Northrop Grumman Corp Masco Corp Paccar Inc Industry Aerospace & Defense Professional Services Aerospace & Defense Building Products Machinery Market Cap 45,872.53 4,147.20 18,798.55 4,684.85 12,867.08 Price 73.32 30.99 65.69 15.39 43.75 Target 71.04 29.79 61.94 14.40 38.44 E(r) -4% -4% -6% -6% -12%
Paccar has the lowest expected return, but has one the highest earnings growth expectations.

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker MAS LUV PCAR BA RHI
Ticker HON JEC FSLR FLR TXT
Name Masco Corp Southwest Airlines Paccar Inc Boeing Co Robert Half Intl Inc
Name Honeywell International Inc Jacobs Engineering Group Inc First Solar Inc Fluor Corp Textron Inc
Industry Building Products Airlines Machinery Aerospace & Defense Professional Services
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Industry Aerospace & Defense Construction & Engineering Electrical Equipment Construction & Engineering Industrial Conglomerates
Price 15.39 12.93 43.75 73.32 30.99

Price 44.99 45.31 121.54 47.01 21.64
EPS 0.07 0.18 0.31 1.83 0.24

EPS 2.85 2.85 7.54 3.76 0.61
NTM EPS 0.42 0.60 0.87 4.05 0.48

NTM EPS 2.40 2.36 6.12 2.99 0.48
Growth 500% 235% 180% 121% 100%

Growth -16% -17% -19% -20% -21%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 7 of 13
TECHNOLOGY: VERY LITTLE DISPERSION AMONG TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES ALL BULLISH!

Despite being one of the largest S&P 500 sectors, the variance of the expected return between industries within the Technology sector is very low. Such high expectations by analysts are not surprising, given the high-beta nature of the entire sector. Having the highest beta of all industries within the sector, it doesnt come as a surprise that Electronic Equipment has the highest expected return.

Electronic Equipment Inst & Com
Internet Software & Services Software Semiconductors & Semi. Equipment Office Electronics Sector Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment IT Services 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 15.7% 15.5% 13.6%
MWW Expectations Are Extremely Low Compared To Tech

Monster Worldwide Inc. (MWW)
0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.16
0.14
13.5%
13.1% 12.5% 11.7% 11.0% 10.3% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0%
Expectations continue to remain muted
0.12 0.10
0.08
0.06 0.04
0.04 0.02
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.02
While overall sell-side expectations are high for the sector, there are some companies that analysts expect to underperform over the next 12 months. In the table below, we highlight 5 companies that analysts believe will have negative returns over the next 12 months. For example, analysts expect Akamai (AKAM) to lose 7% and exhibit negative earnings growth of over 20%.
Highest Expected Return Ticker WDC JBL CPWR MOT MU Ticker Name Western Digital Corp Jabil Circuit Inc Compuware Corp Motorola Inc Micron Technology Inc Name Total System Services Inc Citrix Systems Inc Akamai Technologies Inc Lexmark Intl Inc -Cl A Jds Uniphase Corp Industry Computers & Peripherals Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components Software Communications Equipment Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Lowest Expteced Return Industry IT Services Software Internet Software & Services Computers & Peripherals Communications Equipment Market Cap 2,807.84 7,854.01 4,503.82 2,632.75 2,344.63 Price 15.87 47.91 31.68 35.96 11.92 Target 15.17 45.86 29.62 33.05 11.00 E(r) -4% -4% -7% -7% -8% TSS CTXS AKAM LXK JDSU Market Cap 8,807.64 3,167.12 1,703.23 15,629.80 7,699.19 Price 39.34 16.37 8.44 7.23 10.79 Target 51.33 20.23 10.25 8.77 12.88 E(r) 28% 24% 22% 21% 21%
JDS Uniphase has the lowest expected return while having triple-digit earnings growth expectations.

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker MOT MOLX NSM JDSU NVDA Name Motorola Inc Molex Inc National Semiconductor Corp Jds Uniphase Corp Nvidia Corp Industry Communications Equipment Electronic Equipment Instruments & Components Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Communications Equipment Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Price 7.23 20.98 14.44 11.92 17.48 EPS 0.02 0.18 0.27 0.12 0.40 NTM EPS 0.22 1.25 1.08 0.45 0.91 Growth 1019% 593% 300% 279% 127%
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker TSS AKAM CPWR AMD MWW Name Total System Services Inc Akamai Technologies Inc Compuware Corp Advanced Micro Devices Monster Worldwide Inc Industry IT Services Internet Software & Services Software Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment Internet Software & Services Price 15.87 31.68 8.44 9.17 17.10 EPS 1.13 1.67 0.65 0.19 0.03 NTM EPS 0.95 1.31 0.46 (0.22) (0.12) Growth -16% -21% -29% -216% -501%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 8 of 13
MATERIALS: ANALYSTS STILL PREFER THE HYPER-CYCLICAL TRADE WITHIN MATERIALS

Analysts believe the commodity based industries of Metals & Mining and Paper & Forest Products will lead the materials sector in the coming year. In all, the Metals & Mining universe is the largest within the Materials sector as well as possesses the highest beta. Within the S&P 500, the Materials sector has the second-highest expected return, trailing only Energy. Below we highlight Vulcan Materials (VMC), the only stock within Construction Materials. VMC has one of the deepest discounts to sector expectations.

Metals & Mining Paper & Forest Products Chemicals Sector
VMC Showing A Deep Discount To Sector Expectations

Vulcan Materials (VMC)
14.1%
14.0%
0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25
13.4% 13.0% 11.4% 7.6% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0%
Containers & Packaging

Construction Materials 0.0%
0.20 0.15
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.20 0.15
While the Metals & Mining space has the highest expected return amongst the Materials industries, analysts expect some differentiation in the group. As the table below highlights, some Metals & Mining companies are amongst the leaders and laggards in expected return for the sector.
Highest Expected Return Ticker MON AA FCX PTV APD
Ticker IFF ARG X ATI TIE
Name Monsanto Co Alcoa Inc Freeport-Mcmoran Cop&Gold Pactiv Corp Air Products & Chemicals Inc
Name Intl Flavors & Fragrances Airgas Inc United States Steel Corp Allegheny Technologies Inc Titanium Metals Corp
Industry Chemicals Metals & Mining Metals & Mining Containers & Packaging Chemicals
Lowest Expected Return Industry Chemicals Chemicals Metals & Mining Metals & Mining Metals & Mining
Market Cap 38,529.32 12,959.24 32,318.80 3,276.59 14,549.45

Market Cap 3,333.30 5,271.60 7,588.95 4,281.74 2,117.48
Price 71.42 14.37 83.60 25.30 73.90

Price 47.73 63.99 63.49 54.55 16.81
Target 90.84 17.99 102.40 30.80 89.47

Target 47.43 61.56 62.30 49.13 13.43
E(r) 28% 25% 24% 21% 20%

E(r) -1% -4% -4% -12% -22%

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker CLF ATI VMC DOW IP
Ticker BLL MON CF PTV TIE
While being the Materials industry with the highest expected return, there is some disparity in expectations within Metals & Mining
Name Cliffs Natural Resources Inc Allegheny Technologies Inc Vulcan Materials Co Dow Chemical Intl Paper Co
Name Ball Corp Monsanto Co Cf Industries Holdings Inc Pactiv Corp Titanium Metals Corp
Industry Metals & Mining Metals & Mining Construction Materials Chemicals Paper & Forest Products
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Industry Containers & Packaging Chemicals Chemicals Containers & Packaging Metals & Mining
Price 71.50 54.55 47.39 29.71 25.13

Price 53.38 71.42 92.27 25.30 16.81
EPS 1.05 0.46 0.13 0.59 0.89

EPS 4.05 3.41 7.28 2.49 0.20
NTM EPS 5.10 1.47 0.40 1.48 1.45

NTM EPS 4.35 3.40 6.85 2.33 0.13
Growth 385% 219% 204% 151% 63%

Growth 7% 0% -6% -6% -38%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 9 of 13
TELECOM: EXPECTATIONS FOR CYCLICAL TELECOMS MUCH HIGHER THAN DIVERSIFIEDS

While Telecom is by far the smallest of the 10 GICS sectors in the S&P 500 and has the lowest beta, analysts expectations for the sector are almost in-line with the market. Out of the two Telecom industries, analysts expect Wireless Services to have the strongest performance within the sector and outperform the market, as illustrated in the chart below.

Wireless Telecommunic ation Services 15.8%
Price Target For CTL Has Risen Much Faster Than Sector
Centruy Tel Inc. (CTL)
0.40 0.40
0.35
0.30
Sector 10.0%
0.35
0.30 0.25
0.25
0.20
0.15
Diversified Telecommunication Servic es 9.2%
0.20
0.15 0.10
0.10
0.05
1999
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0% 16.0% 20.0%
0.05
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Interestingly, as shown in the table below, all Telecom companies are expected to have a positive return over the next year. Despite this, there are a few companies within the sector whose earnings are expected to decline in the coming year. One example, Metropcs (PCS), is expected to outperform the market (13% vs. 12%) but is predicted to exhibit the largest decline in earnings within the sector (-13%).
Highest Expected Return Ticker S AMT PCS T VZ Ticker WIN CTL FTR Q Name Sprint Nextel Corp American Tower Corp Metropcs Communications Inc At&T Inc Verizon Communications Inc Name Windstream Corp Centurytel Inc Frontier Communications Corp Qwest Communication Intl Inc Industry Wireless Telecommunication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Lowest Expteced Return Industry Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Market Cap 4,424.78 10,253.20 2,433.03 7,885.36 Price 10.92 35.55 7.45 5.22 Target 11.62 36.93 7.65 5.42 E(r) 6% 4% 3% 3% Market Cap 9,900.09 17,132.12 2,176.23 146,426.90 82,035.85 Price 3.79 42.64 7.08 25.93 31.22 Target 4.44 49.31 7.86 29.40 32.81 E(r) 17% 15% 13% 11% 8%
Mean expected returns for all Telecom stocks are positive for the forthcoming year.

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker FTR AMT WIN T Name Frontier Communications Corp American Tower Corp Windstream Corp At&T Inc Industry Diversified Telecommunication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Price 7.45 42.64 10.92 25.93 EPS 0.39 0.60 0.76 2.12 NTM EPS 0.58 0.85 0.86 2.19 Growth 48% 42% 13% 3%
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker CTL Q PCS Name Centurytel Inc Qwest Communication Intl Inc Metropcs Communications Inc Industry Diversified Telecommunication Services Diversified Telecommunication Services Wireless Telecommunication Services Price 35.55 5.22 7.08 EPS 3.45 0.38 0.49 NTM EPS 3.26 0.34 0.42 Growth -6% -12% -13%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 10 of 13
UTILITIES: HUGE BULLISH TILT TOWARDS INDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS!

Utilities, often the unfashionable, high-dividend, low-beta sector play in the S&P 500, is expected to return 9.8% in the upcoming year. While the sector in whole is anticipated to underperform the market, the real draw within the sector is Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders and Gas Utilities which analysts predict to strongly outperform the S&P 500.

Independent Power Prod.& En. Traders 32.3%
Pepco Expectations Remain Muted Despite Discount

Pepco Holdings Inc. (POM)
0.24 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.22
0.20
0.18 0.16
Gas Utilities
20.3%
Sector
9.8%
Electric Utilities
8.2%
Expectations are extremely high for these two industries.
0.14
0.12 0.10
0.10 0.08
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0.08
Multi-Utilities
4.4%
0.0% 4.0% 8.0% 12.0%16.0%20.0%24.0%28.0%32.0%36.0%
While Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders and Gas Utilities are the industries with the highest expected returns, Electric Utilities seem to show the highest potential for earnings growth (see table below). Even though NRG Energy has one of the highest expected returns (32%) within the sector, it is by far anticipated to have the greatest decline in earnings (-40%).
Highest Expected Return Ticker AES EQT NRG STR PPL Name Aes Corp Eqt Corp Nrg Energy Inc Questar Corp Ppl Corp Industry Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Gas Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Gas Utilities Electric Utilities Market Cap 7,805.18 5,729.54 5,547.25 7,331.45 10,742.17 Price 11.06 40.95 21.10 43.08 27.88 Target 17.33 55.40 27.23 53.91 32.75 E(r) 54% 34% 32% 25% 17%
Lowest Expteced Return Ticker DTE POM TEG GAS AEE Name Dte Energy Co Pepco Holdings Inc Integrys Energy Group Inc Nicor Inc Ameren Corp Industry Multi-Utilities Electric Utilities Multi-Utilities Gas Utilities Multi-Utilities Market Cap 7,181.67 3,738.58 3,349.20 1,884.45 5,866.15 Price 45.22 17.04 47.29 42.18 26.01 Target 43.69 16.05 44.25 39.67 23.00 E(r) -4% -5% -6% -6% -11%
Expectations within Utilities are elevated.

Highest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker PPL POM TEG PNW EQT Name Ppl Corp Pepco Holdings Inc Integrys Energy Group Inc Pinnacle West Capital Corp Eqt Corp Industry Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Multi-Utilities Electric Utilities Gas Utilities Price 27.88 17.04 47.29 37.95 40.95 EPS 1.96 0.90 2.41 2.28 1.49 NTM EPS 3.37 1.28 3.34 3.03 1.79 Growth 72% 43% 38% 33% 20%
Lowest EPS Growth Expectations Ticker FE EXC STR AEE NRG Name Firstenergy Corp Exelon Corp Questar Corp Ameren Corp Nrg Energy Inc Industry Electric Utilities Electric Utilities Gas Utilities Multi-Utilities Independent Power Producers & Energy Traders Price 38.79 44.02 43.08 26.01 21.10 EPS 3.77 4.11 2.81 2.82 3.39 NTM EPS 3.55 3.77 2.40 2.31 2.04 Growth -6% -8% -15% -18% -40%
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 11 of 13
ANNEX: BOTTOMS UP EARNINGS ESTIMATES FOR THE S&P 500

With 2009 earnings nearly complete, and the bar beginning to settle after the last two years of turmoil, 2010 looks to be a more balanced year for index earnings. In the chart below, we show the potential path of earnings over the next 12-months. Even the most pessimistic analysts see positive earnings growth for the market from here.
100 100
90
80
70
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Using the highest estimates, analysts predict earnings of $90 over the next twelve months
High, 90.47 Mean, 79.71 Low , 64.37
90
80
70
60 50 40
In aggregate, the S&P 500 earnings are expected to be $79.71 over the next twelve months.
S&P 500 EPS Actuals
30
S&P 500 EPS Mean Estimate

S&P 500 EPS Low Estimate S&P 500 EPS High Estimate
while the most bearish analyst estimates suggest ~$64.
20 10 0
1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012 2013 2014
The growth in earnings, is not concentrated in a handful of sectors, but can be seen across the entire market, as shown in the table below. While all sectors are expected to exhibit positive earnings growth over the next twelve months, on a YoY basis, Financials are expected to be a leader in earnings growth, while Telecom and Staples are two sectors that are anticipated to lag in growth. Email us at strategy@wolfetrahan.com to receive the S&P 500 EPS/Price target updates from us on a timelier basis.
2009 S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Telecommunication Services Utilities Q1 $10.12 $0.38 $3.90 $0.44 $0.50 $6.61 $3.08 $2.90 $1.05 $1.95 $2.89 Q2 $13.81 $2.78 $4.62 $4.57 $1.01 $6.60 $3.75 $3.63 $1.67 $1.88 $2.52 Q3 $15.78 $3.49 $4.88 $5.93 $1.35 $6.92 $3.24 $4.52 $2.27 $1.77 $3.81 Q4e $17.34 $3.96 $4.86 $6.66 $1.76 $6.49 $4.00 $6.58 $1.96 $1.62 $2.39 Q1e $17.56 $3.35 $4.20 $7.42 $2.87 $7.21 $3.15 $5.39 $2.78 $1.78 $3.10 Q2e $19.35 $3.86 $4.90 $8.18 $3.29 $7.58 $3.82 $5.63 $3.40 $1.82 $2.74 2010 Q3e $20.64 $3.77 $5.21 $8.75 $3.53 $7.87 $4.13 $6.14 $2.91 $1.87 $4.00 Q4e $22.15 $4.67 $5.21 $9.29 $4.01 $7.99 $4.49 $7.25 $2.81 $1.83 $2.76 Q1e $21.95 $4.00 $4.68 $10.66 $4.38 $8.30 $3.98 $6.21 $3.94 $1.93 $3.08 Q2e $23.94 $4.86 $5.43 $11.22 $4.77 $8.69 $4.70 $6.50 $4.34 $2.00 $3.05 2011 Q3e $25.04 $4.82 $5.58 $11.41 $4.99 $9.17 $5.02 $6.98 $3.74 $2.07 $4.04 Q4e $26.72 $5.96 $5.79 $11.81 $5.50 $9.05 $5.49 $7.93 $3.82 $2.09 $3.08 NTM EPS $79.71 $15.66 $19.52 $33.64 $13.71 $30.65 $15.59 $24.41 $11.89 $7.30 $12.61 STM EPS $97.65 $19.64 $21.47 $45.10 $19.63 $35.20 $19.19 $27.63 $15.84 $8.08 $13.24
WolfeTrahan.com
Page 12 of 13
Analyst Certification: Each analyst of Wolfe Trahan & Co. whose name appears on the front page of this research report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analysts personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within such analysts coverage universe and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report. Other Disclosures: Although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable, the accuracy and completeness of such information and the opinions expressed herein cannot be guaranteed. The information and opinions contained herein are subject to change without notice, and Wolfe Trahan & Co. assumes no responsibility to update or amend any information or opinions contained herein. Copyright Wolfe Trahan & Co. 2010. All rights reserved. All material presented in this document, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright to Wolfe Trahan & Co. None of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, or transmitted to or distributed to any other party, without the prior express written permission of Wolfe Trahan & Co. This report is limited for the sole use of clients of Wolfe Trahan & Co. Authorized users have received an encryption decoder which legislates and monitors the access to Wolfe Trahan & Co. content. Any distribution of the content produced by Wolfe Trahan & Co. will violate the understanding of the terms of our relationship. The views implied by inclusion of certain sectors or companies in portfolio strategy and quantitative research modeling screens may be inconsistent with the views expressed with regard to those sectors or companies as presented in fundamental research products. For a copy of fundamental research discussing any company referenced herein, please contact your salesperson.
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Page 13 of 13

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PORTFOLIO STRATEGY

ASSET ALLOCATION & SECTOR SELECTION

THE SELL-SIDE SENTIMENT BAROMETER

Dispersion amongst analysts bottomsup estimates remains high

H: 1545 Mean 1287 L: 1000

Analysts 12m Expected Return

800 700 600

Analy sts' 12-Month Target

CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY: THE SELL-SIDES LEAST FAVORITE SECTOR

Expected Returns By Industry (12-Month)

Relativ e Mean Analy st Target to Sector

Expected 12-Month Return

Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Portfolio Strategy.

IGT EXPE AMZN

Highest & Lowest Analysts Earnings Expectations

Starwood Hotels (HOT): A lot of downside already being recognized by analysts!

Portfolio Strategy | March 31, 2010

Expected Returns By Industry (12-Month)

Expectations For EL Shooting Up Relative To Sector!

Analysts relative target for EL is at the highest level since 2000.

0.23 0.18 0.13

Expected 12-Month Return

Relativ e Mean Analy st Target to Sector

Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Portfolio Strategy.

Market Cap 18,878.48 11,394.24 7,486.45 14,201.45 2,638.66

Price 28.78 74.94 42.19 21.34 15.76

Target 37.00 87.88 48.18 24.37 17.94

E(r) 27% 17% 15% 14% 14%

Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected EPS Growth

Portfolio Strategy | March 31, 2010

ENERGY: THE SELL-SIDES FAVORITE SECTOR!

Analysts Expecting $100 Oil By 2011?

SLBs Relative Target Is Rising Back To 07/08 Levels

Relativ e Mean Analy st Target to Sector

Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Portfolio Strategy.

Market Cap 17,208.64 4,160.67 14,717.06 6,270.40 27,195.29

Price 23.16 36.71 40.15 19.38 30.08

Target 35.25 54.00 58.07 27.49 41.28

E(r) 51% 45% 43% 41% 38%

Analysts believe these names are the most undervalued

CHK COG SWN NBR HAL

and these stocks are the most overvalued!

VLO FTI SUN BJS SII

Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected EPS Growth

Portfolio Strategy | March 31, 2010

FINANCIALS: ANALYSTS PREFER FINANCIAL MARKETS TO REAL ESTATE MARKETS

Expected Returns By Industry (12-Month)

Capital Ones Relative Target Near Past Peak Levels

-15.0% -10.0% -5.0%

Expected 12-Month Return

Relativ e Mean Analy st Target to Sector

Source: Wolfe Trahan & Co. Portfolio Strategy.

Highest & Lowest Analysts Expected EPS Growth

Price 15.11 41.98 17.45 27.99 41.20

EPS 0.24 0.67 0.42 1.31 1.54

NTM EPS 0.81 2.12 1.15 3.22 2.67

Growth 239% 217% 175% 146% 73%

Portfolio Strategy | March 31, 2010

HEALTH CARE: SELL-SIDE STILL FAVORS THE PERENNIAL UNDERPERFORMERS (PHARMA!)

Expected Returns By Industry (12-Month)

BSXs Relative Target Is At A 10-Year Low

Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX)