AN EVALUATION OF FISHING ACTIVITIES AT

KASENYI FISH LANDING SITE ALONG THE NORTHERN

SHORES OF L.VICTORIA

(2000-2004)
Investigator
Tumusiime B. Denis,
BSc. QE (MUK)
P.O Box 132,
Mob: +256 774 032640 / +256 702042640
E-mail tdeno2002@yahoo.com
Kampala, Uganda
2
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Content Page
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................ iii
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... iv
LIST OF ACRONYMS ..................................................................................................... v
ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... vi
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1
1.1 BACK GROUND TO THE STUDY ...................... 1
1.1.1 Methods of fishing ............................................................................................ 1
1.1.2 Lake Victoria ..................................................................................................... 1
1.1.3 Threat: ................................................................................................................. 2
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM .......................................................................... 3
1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY .......................................................................................... 3
1.4 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY ................................................................................. 3
1.5 HYPOTHESES OF THE STUDY ............................................................................. 3
1.6 JUSTIFICATIONS OF THE STUDY ........................................................................ 3
1.7 DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS USED ...................................................................... 4
LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................................................ 5
2.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................... 5
2.2 VALUE ...................................................................................................................... 5
2.3 LAKE VICTORIA: IMPACT ..................................................................................... 5
2.4 FISHERIES TREND ........ 6
2.5 DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION ............................................................................ 7
BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT KFLS AND LVFO ................................ 8
3.1 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 8
3.2 KASENYI FISH LANDING SITE (KFLS) .................................................................. 8
3.2.1 Location ............................................................................................................. 8
3.2.2 Historical background ......................................................................................... 8
3.2.3Fishing methods ................................................................................................... 8
3.2.4 Fish factory activities at Kasenyi ........................................................................ 8
3.2.5 Preservation of fish ............................................................................................. 9
3.2.6 Transportation of fish .......................................................................................... 9
3.2.7 Business at Kasenyi ......................................................................................... 9
3.3 LAKE VICTORIA FISHERIES ORGANISATION (LVFO) .................................... 9
3.3.1 Establishment of LVFO: ..................................................................................... 9
3.3.2 Objectives of LVFO ............................................................................................ 9
3.3.3 Functions and responsibilities of LVFO ........................................................... 10
i
3.3.4 Organs of LVFO .............. 10
3.3.5 Funding and vision of LVFO ............. 11
METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................... 12
4.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 12
4.2 DESIGN OF STUDY ............................................................................................... 12
4.3 AREA UNDER STUDY .................................................................................... 12
4.4 POPULATION UNDER STUDY ............................................................................ 12
4.5 DATA COLLECTION ................... 12
NATURE OF DATA COLLECTED ............................................................................... 12
4.7 DATA ENTRY AND PROCESSING ................................................................... 13
4.8 ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION OF DATA ........................................................ 13
4.8.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 13
4.8.2 Distribution ....................................................................................................... 13
4.8.3 Hypothesis Testing (I) ....................................................................................... 14
4.8.4 Estimation of the trend: .................................................................................... 15
4.8.5 Seasonality ........................................................................................................ 15
4.8.6 Hypothesis testing (II) ....................................................................................... 16
4.8.7 Computation and adjustment of seasonal factors for 2000 to 2004: ................. 16
4.8.8 Delimitations and limitations of the research ................................................... 17
ANALYSIS OF DATA .................................................................................................... 18
5.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 18
HYPOTHESIS TESTING (I) .......................................................................................... 18
5.3 ESTIMATION OF THE TREND .............................................................................. 19
5.4 FORECASTING THE TREND FOR 2005 AND 2006 ............................................. 20
5.5 SEASONAL COMPONENT ..................................................................................... 21
5.5.1 Hypothesis testing (II) ....................................................................................... 21
5.5.2 Computation of the seasonal factors ................................................................. 23
5.5. 3 Adjustment of the seasonal factors .............................................................. 23
.................................................................................... 23
5.6 TILAPIA VERSUS NILE PERCH ........................................................................... 24
5.7 ANNUAL SHARES ................................................................................................... 25
DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............... 27
6.1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................... 27
6.2 DISCUSSIONS OF THE FINDINGS ..................................................................... 27
6.2.1 Statistical findings ............................................................................................ 27
6.2.2 Other findings ................................................................................................... 28
6.3 CONCLUSIONS ...................................................................................................... 29
6.4 RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................ 30
ii
....................................................................................................... 30
BIBILIOGRAPHY .......................................................................................................... 31
APPENDICES ................................................................................................................. 33
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 4-1 Composition of each quarter by months.
...........................................................................................................................................13
TABLE 5-2 Table of results............................................................................................19
TABLE 5-3 Time identification numbers with their respective trend values,. .......19
TABLE 5-4 Forecast values for 2005 and 2006.............................................................20
TABLE 5-5 Computational Table A..............................................................................21
TABLE 5-6 Ranks in their respective quarters as obtained from Table 5-5.............22
TABLE 5-7 Quarters with their respective specific seasonals for 2000 to 2004. .....23
TABLE 5-8 Quarters with their respective Adjusted Seasonal Factors.....................23
iii
TABLE 5-9 Forecasts for (2005 and 2006) ..................................................................24
TABLE 5-10 Amount of Nile perch and Tilapia Species landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA for 2000-2004..........................................................................24
TABLE 5-11 Total amount of fish (in tons) landed at KFLS and marketed through
...........................................................................................................................................25
KFA for period 2000 to 2004..........................................................................................25
TABLE 6-1 Different types of fish at Kasenyi. ............................................................28
TABLE 5-1 Volume of fish in tons (lates niloticus and the tilapia) landed at KFLS
and marketed through KFA. .........................................................................................36
LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 4-1 An illustration of the normal distribution: ............................................. 14
FIGURE 5-1 A Scatter diagram showing the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed at KFA against for the 5-year period. ......................................................... 18
iv
FIGURE 5-2 A Line graph of and the trend values against the time number ......... 20
FIGURE 5-3 A Bar graph showing the volume of fish against the respective quarter
for the period 2000-2004. ................................................................................................ 21
FIGURE 5-4 Amount of tilapia species and lates niloticus over the period
2000-2004. ........................................................................................................................ 25
FIGURE 5-5A pie chart showing share by year based on the overall marketing
statistics for the five-year period: .................................................................................. 26
LIST OF ACRONYMS
CIFA Committee for Inland Fisheries of Africa
v
CMA Centred Moving Average
EAC East African Community
EU European Union
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
FIRRI Fisheries Resources Research institute
HR Hanging Ratio
KFA Kasenyi Factory Area
KFLS Kasenyi Fish Landing Site
LVFC Lake Victoria Fisheries Commission
LVFO Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization
MAM Moving Average Method
MUIENR Makerere University Institute of Environment and Natural Resources
MUK Makerere University Kampala
NARO National Agricultural Research Organization
NEMA National Environment Management Authority
SER State of Environment Report
UFD Uganda Fisheries Department
UIA Uganda Investment Authority
ABSTRACT
Imagine the sight of a full sized commercial
vi
trawl being emptied of its catch
Livable communities have vibrant economies that foster local enterprise, serve the needs of
residents and promote employment. Such communities depend on, among other factors,
productive natural resources.
The value of fisheries, like any other economic sector can be assessed basing on a number of
factors that include the level of employment, status of a livelihood of people, contribution to
house hold income, food security and contribution to economic growth and development among
others.
The evaluation of performance of the fisheries sub-sector and in particular the fishing activities
conducted at Kasenyi Fish Landing Site (KFLS) on the northern shore of Lake Victoria is a
means of assessing the economic potential and viability of the area.
An exploration into such activities generally pointed to one rather undesirable direction. Results
suggest diminishing fish catch and marketing statistics, degradation of the lakes ecosystem and
inadequate supplies of fish to both the local and foreign the fish market despite the intensified
Monitoring Control and Surveillance (MCS) of both on-lake and on-land at the landing site for
the last few years.
Environmental conservationists and other stakeholders should ensure proper utilization of the
fisheries resource as this leads to the creation and maintaining of a sustainable standard of living
and high quality of life for an enormous number of Ugandans. For that matter, the outstanding
challenge for Ugandans is to appreciate the contribution of the fisheries sub-sector towards
Ugandas economic sustainability.
Stakeholders can only meet the challenge if they appreciate the roles played by policy measures
such as surveillances and patrols by fisheries authorities, sensitization of the masses on the
importance of the fisheries resource and enforcement of the law in the strongest terms possible
against any illegal activities among others.
vii
INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACK GROUND TO THE STUDY
The fisheries sector is one of the key sub-sectors in the Environment and Natural Resources
(ENR) sector not only in Uganda but also in the world over. The sector provides a vital source of
food, employment, recreation, trade and socio-economic welfare to many people (NARO, 2000).
Most of the fish consumed within the tropical world is caught in the sea, but in some countries
fresh-water fisheries are also of paramount importance. In some parts of the tropical world,
fishing is still undertaken for subsistence purposes, but in others it is now becoming
commercialized (Michael Senior, 1989).
Uganda is a landlocked country endowed with plentiful freshwater resources that have
unquestionably stimulated the substantial growth of various fishing activities. Of the total
241,000 sq. km area of the country, about 42,000 sq. km or 17 percent is covered by water,
including major and minor lakes, rivers, swamps, dams, valley tanks, and fishponds. There are
some 165 lakes in the country, with the largest and most productive being Lake Victoria, Lake
Kyoga, Lake Albert, Lake Edward, and Lake George.
The national waters contain an impressive array of fish speciesover 90 in all. This count does
not include the haplochromis complex, which itself is made up of more than 200 species. The
fishes which are the object of the most commercial and subsistence exploitation include species
of lates niloticus (Nile Perch) or mputa, the herring-like Alestes or Ngara, oreochromis (Nile
tilapia) or Ngege, the catfishes Bagrus or Semutundu and Clarias or male, hydrocynus
(Tiger fish), the small pelagic sardine rastrineobola or mukene, protopterus (lungfish) or
mamba and the haplochromines.
1.1.1 Methods of fishing
According to Michael Senior (1989), there are various methods used to catch fish. In some
countries, modern boats and equipment are used, but in most parts of the tropical world the
methods used are still very simple. The methods of fishing used are determined by several
factors, important among which are the kind(s) of fish sought, the depth of water in which fishing
takes place and the development level of the people involved.
Simple methods used to catch fish in shallow waters include shooting with bows and arrows, use
of poisons, which is illegal in most countries, spearing, use of scoop nets and cast nets. Various
kinds of fish baskets and traps are used in shallow waters of coastal lagoons, lakes, rivers and
seasonal swamps.
Modern methods of fishing using motorized boats are now being employed even in some tropical
countries. Amongst these methods are trawling and purse seining. Trawling is mainly used to
catch demersal fish as purse net is for pelagic fish.
1.1.2 Lake Victoria
Lake Victoria is 68,870sq.km in size, making it Africas largest lake, the largest tropical lake, and
the second largest freshwater lake in the world by surface area after Lake Superior in North
America. Being relatively shallow, Lake Victoria ranks as the seventh largest freshwater lake by
volume, containing 2,760 km
3
of water. It is the source of the longest branch of the Nile River,
the White Nile. The lake lies within an elevated plateau in the western part of Africa's Valley.
The lake is shared by Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda, but Rwanda and Burundi share the wider
1
catchment area. According to the Strategic Vision Report for the Lake Victoria Fisheries
Organization (LVFO) covering the period between 1999 and 2015, Kenya controls 6 percent,
Uganda 45 percent and Tanzania 49 percent of the lakes surface.
There are more than 3,000 islands within Lake Victoria, many of which are inhabited. These
include the Ssese Islands in Uganda, a large group of islands in the northwest of the lake that are
becoming a popular destination for tourists. Hughes et al (1992) states that the lake spans 412 km
from North to South between latitude 0
0
30N and 3
0
12S and 355 km from west to East.
It is a relatively shallow lake with an average depth of 40m and a maximum depth of 80m.
Ntakimazi Gaspard (1992) asserts that Lake Victoria occupies an enormous, shallow basin
formerly drained by a large network of rivers flowing towards the western Rift, and probably of
smaller lakes.
The lake catchment provides for the livelihood of about one third of the combined population of
the three East African countries. Population growth in the lake basin is about 3 percent per
annum, one of the highest in the world. It serves as an important water reservoir for the region.
Most of Lake Victorias water comes from rainfall over its surface. Inflowing rivers contribute 20
percent of its water. River Kagera flowing from Rwanda and Burundi through Tanzania and
Uganda contributes 45 percent of the river inflow while River Nzoia from Kenya contributes 15
percent of the inflow and River Mara from Kenya through Tanzania contributes between 10 and
15 percent of the inflow. River Nile is the only outflow from the lake beginning at Jinja. However
this outflow is less than one percent of the lakes storage capacity. About 82 percent of the loss
from the lake is through evaporation from its surface according to FIRRI, 2005.
According to the Strategic vision Report for Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization (LVFO) 1999-
2015, the gross economic product in the lake basin is between US$3 billion and US$4 billion
annually and supports an estimated population of 30 million people with incomes between US$90
and US$270 per capita per annum.

1.1.3 Threat:
Maintaining a stream of benefits within the fisheries sector requires a strategic management
approach that emphasizes resource sustainability. Lake Victoria and its basin face a wide
spectrum of environmental problems that threaten the foundation of the livelihoods of millions of
people. It is important that issues that pertain to the management of the lake and its natural
resources be addressed from time to time. There exists a substantial threat in the fisheries sector
largely manifested by a reduction in the volume of fish catches. Contrarily, a number of cases
have been cited that indicate an increase in the volume of fish caught from the lake.
The introduction of the Nile perch (lates niloticus) into Lake Victoria before the 1960s amidst
protests, for fisheries purposes, suddenly increased the number of the Nile perch. However the
lates niloticus being a predator of the haplochromis species, led to the latters subsequent
decrease in number.
There is degradation of the biological diversity of Lake Victoria, by and large. Attention should
be paid to the fact that about 8-10 kg of haplochromis, which could be consumed directly by man,
now serves to produce a kilogram of Nile perch flesh.
2
1.2 STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Fishing methods used by fishermen along the shores of Lake Victoria have drastically improved.
There has been intensified Monitoring Control and Surveillance (MCS) of both on-lake and on-
land. However there seems to be no significant increase in the amount of fish from this lake. The
inclusion of fish in the diets of many Ugandans has not been possible as the little fish caught from
the lake is exported to fish hungry foreign consumers. Some fish species have completely
disappeared from the lake for some time. A study on fishing activities conducted at KFLS will
provide vital information on whether the lake will ably sustain supply to the local and foreign
markets and this will enable policy makers to make informed decisions for the prosperity of the
entire fisheries sector at large.
1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
The research focused on the catches of fish landed at Kasenyi Fish Landing site (KFLS) and
marketed through Kasenyi Factory Area (KFA) on the shoreline of Lake Victoria. It is 5.5 km off
the Kampala-Entebbe highway.
KFLS is located along the northern part of Lake Victorias shoreline and is among the most
significant landing sites on Lake Victoria in Uganda. Administratively, this landing site is
situated in Nkumba Parish, Katabi Sub county-Wakiso District.
The research was mainly centered on the evaluation of the trend of the volume of fish landed and
marketed at this site taking into consideration the weight (in tons) and the composition by two
major fish species (lates niloticus and tilapia species) from the year 2000 to 2004.
1.4 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
In this research, the researcher evaluates the volume of fish (in tons) and composition of fish by
species that landed at KFLS.
Specific objectives:
To estimate the trend of the volume of fish landed and marketed through KFLS and
make projections for the future.
To find the seasonality for the volume of fish landed at KFLS for the period 2000-
2004.
To analyze the fish catches by species for the period 2000 to 2004.
To identify the causes of variations in the catches of fish from the year 2000 to 2004.
1.5 HYPOTHESES OF THE STUDY
The hypotheses of the research are as follows:
1.There is no trend in the volume of fish (tons) for the period 2000-2004.
2.There is no seasonality in the volume of fish for the period 2000-2004.
1.6 JUSTIFICATIONS OF THE STUDY
The justifications of the research were as follows:
The results from the research will decipher the trend in the fish catch landed and
marketed through Kasenyi Fish Landing site for the period 2000-2004.
The findings from the research will enable national structures such as the fisheries
management, fisheries research and community, civil society organizations and other
3
stakeholders to review their strategies with the aim of improving on their performance as
regards the growth of the fisheries sub-sector.
The analysis of the various fish species will enhance cross-examination of the aspect of
biological diversity in Lake Victoria by the concerned authorities such as the National
Environment Management authority (NEMA), Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization
(LVFO).
Results from the study will be of paramount importance to potential investors;
academicians who will carry out similar researches in future; and dieticians in predicting
the future of Lake Victoria.
1.7 DEFINITION OF CONCEPTS USED
Time series:
A set of quantitative data concerning a particular phenomenon obtained over a regular time
interval.
A Research Hypothesis:
A prediction derived from the theory under investigation or previous experience.
Null hypothesis (H0):
A hypothesis of no difference in the sense that it does not favor any claim before being subjected
to verification.
Alternative Hypothesis (Ha):
An operational statement of the researchers research hypothesis.
Level of significance, :
A representative of the error rate. That is, there are chances of stating that the claim is true
when it is false. The larger the level of significance, the more likelihood to reject
0
H
.
Hypothesis testing:
A process of trying to decide the truth or falsity of such hypotheses on the basis of experimental
evidence.
Moving Average:
An average that is repeatedly updated as new observations become available. The oldest
observation values in the time series are deleted thereby keeping the average current.
4
LITERATURE REVIEW
2.1 INTRODUCTION
Uganda suffered through a long interval of instability and trauma, beginning in the 1970s and
subsidizing in only recently, which was marked by episodes of civil war and strife, economic
collapse, and general disintegration of administrative services, social amenities, infrastructure and
productive capacity in the livestock and agricultural sectors. During this period of war and
thereafter, the country has maintained a plan of recovery and rehabilitation of the fisheries sector
to provide a continual supply of high quality food. There is considerable scope for expanded
production and more effective product delivery within the sector, not only to meet ever-
increasing domestic demand, but also provide a substantial and lucrative export market as well.
2.2 VALUE
Micheal Senior (1989) says that in many parts of the tropical world, fish is the most cheaply
produced form of animal protein, being of a particular importance in areas where it is difficult to
rear livestock.
Fish, which is commonly referred to as the aquatic chicken by most people around the Victoria
Basin, forms a very important item in the nutrition diet of many people, estimated to be about 120
million, in the world according to FAO (2002).
The Nile perch (lates niloticus) is the largest fresh water fish in the world and can grow up to
more than 230kgs. Its firmly textured, highly nutritious and rich in trace nutrients. The Nile
perch also contains the highest levels of omega 3 fatty acids (700mg/100grams), which studies
suggest can help to reduce the risk of heart disease.
According to UFD (2000), fisheries offer viable and vast opportunities for local and foreign
entrepreneurs. About 130,000 people are involved in artisanal fishing and over 900,000 people
are engaged in related activities such as processing and marketing.
2.3 LAKE VICTORIA: IMPACT
Lake Victoria plays a vital role in supporting millions of people living around its shores, in one of
the most densely populated regions on earth.
The ecosystem of Lake Victoria and its surroundings has been badly affected by human
influence. During the 1950s, the Nile perch (lates niloticus) was introduced into the lake's
ecosystem in an attempt to improve the yields of fishing in the lake. The Nile perch proved totally
devastating to the local ecosystem of the hundreds of endemic species, many are now extinct.
Further, the initial good returns on Nile perch catches have diminished dramatically. Currently,
the Nile perch is being over fished. It is reported that some populations of endemic species have
increased again.
According to the State of Environment Report (SER) for 2002, it is estimated that the decline in
fish in Lake Victoria is the largest documented loss of diversity ever inflicted by man on an
ecosystem. With the introduction of fish species such as the Nile perch and Nile tilapia in Lake
Victoria, the multi-species fishery has been transformed into a three-species exploitation, where
the Nile perch, a carnivorous, features dominantly in the daily fish catch followed by tilapines
and rastineobola. The introduction of new fish varieties has therefore resulted into genetic erosion
5
in some of the water bodies. The most infamous was that of the Nile perch whose dramatic
increase in the 1980s coincided with the disappearance of about 40 percent of the endemic
haplochromine cichlid community by 1999.
Many indigenous non-cichlids such as catfish and the African lungfish have also declined
according to the state of Ugandas Biodiversity 2002 Report by Makerere University Institute of
Environment and Natural Resources (MUIENR).
SER (2002) further asserts that changes in the ecology of a water body can profoundly affect the
sustainable harvest level. Water body degradation is extricably linked, more so, around Lake
Victoria. A lethal cocktail of toxic waste and nutrients derived from industries located along the
shores, bad agricultural practices, new housing, increased population, lake shore deforestation,
over fishing and changes in fish assemblage structure are destroying the aquatic biodiversity.
An eco-problem with a happier outcome was the fight against the huge increase of the water
hyacinth (eichhornia crassipes), a native of the tropical Americas, which forms thick mats of
plant causing difficulties to transportation, fishing, hydroelectric power generation and drinking
water supply. By 1995 90 percent of the Ugandan coastline was covered by the plant. With
mechanical and chemical control of the problem seeming unlikely, the mottled water hyacinth
weevil (neochetina eichhorniae) was bred and released into the lake with very good results.
Although the water hyacinth is on the decline, it remains a pollutant. The extensive root system of
the water hyacinth provides an excellent habitat for snakes posing risks to the fishermen.
2.4 FISHERIES TREND
Ogutu Ohwayo (1990) and Coulter et al (1986) say that for some good years, increasing
international attention has been undergoing a radical transformation of the success of introduced
Nilotic fauna, Nile perch and herbivorous tilapia (oreochromis). These species introduced in the
late 1950s and early 1960s dominate the catches of fish from Lake Victoria to near exclusion of
the native species. For some years, the haplochromine cichlids dominated the fish fauna of Lake
Victoria, the worlds largest tropical lake, in species number, biomass and ecological diversity.
However at the onset of the 1980s, the Nile perch which had been introduced into Lake Victoria
for fisheries purposes some twenty years before, suddenly increased vastly in number and
dominated the haplochromine flock lake wide within seven years.
According to Bamwirire David (2003), the general trend for the entire lake indicates an increase
in the catches of fish during the decade 1961-1970 but a total decline in the period 1970-1979.
This is followed by an upward trend for the 14 years that follow to a peak in 1993 and then a
slight decline ensues thereafter for the few years that follow. The trend shows a fall in the multi-
species fishery in Lake Victoria to only three major ones; the lates niloticus, the oreochromines
and rastrineobola argentea.
Joshua (2004) states that today there are only about 5 different fish species, a far cry from the
original 350 species. Even among the remaining 5 species, the Nile perch and tilapia are the most
common. The African catfish, lungfish and mudfish will soon be extinct. The other species that
are fast disappearing include the enkejje. There was a standing stock of about 650,000 tons of
Nile perch in Lake Victoria in 2000. But by the end of 2002, it had fallen to an estimated 540,000
tons. Ninety-five percent of all this fish was below 50cm, the minimum recommended size.
6
Bamwirire David (2003) adds on that the fluctuation in the catches of fish along Lake Victoria is
not only attributed to the depleted fishery resources but also to the changing exploitation
mechanism caused by:
The fishing effort.
Use of modern fishing techniques.
Availability of market especially at the international level.
A fish ban imposed on Uganda by the European Union (EU) in 1998 and 1999 resulted in low
fish catches. On lifting the ban, an increase in the fish catch ensued.
There exist variations in the species composition of fish landed at KFLS, which are due to:
The varying fishing effort at the KFLS.
The type of fishing gear in use.
The rigging and mounting of different gears used. Different species require different Hanging
Ratios (HR). For example gill nets are rigged at a 50 percent HR for tilapia while the bagrus
(cat fishes) require a HR of 33 percent.
2.5 DEMAND AND CONSUMPTION
Fisheries Department (1999) stated that fisheries contribute an estimated 50 percent of the animal
protein intake per capita in Uganda. Fresh chilled and frozen fish is exported to the European
Union, Japan and many other countries.
Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries Annual Report (2004) identifies the fact
that Ugandans consume more than twice as much fish they export annually, helping to sustain a
million workers. Fish consumed within Uganda in 2004 was higher than what was exported;
contributing an estimated Ushs 442billion compared to Ushs 180billion in 2002.
Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) in its 2003 Background to
the Budget said that a contribution of 2.4 percent to Ugandas Gross Domestic Income (GDP) had
been made by the fisheries sub-sector.
Fish is the largest foreign Exchange earner among other non-traditional export commodities for
Uganda. Europe is Ugandas main fish consumer while the rest of the World has picked up on the
consumption of fish from Uganda. Fish export earnings have increased from less than US $ 1m to
over US $ 60 m per annum for the last decade and the national target is to triple the value of fish
in the next 5 years as regards the Uganda Investment Authority (UIA) Report of 2001.
Nyapendi Macrines (2005) asserted that Uganda fish exports had topped 29,623 metric tons
fetching US $ 100m in 2004. Fish exports surged from 25,080 metric tons in 2003 to 29,623
metric tons in 2004. Unfortunately, Uganda has been losing a lot of money to fish smugglers.
7
BACKGROUND INFORMATION ABOUT KFLS AND LVFO
3.1 INTRODUCTION
Chapter III gives a more comprehensive insight into some of the areas that were of interest in the
course of carrying out this research. It provides background information about the area of study-
Kasenyi Fish Landing Site (KFLS). It further describes Lake Victorias management plan under
the LVFO.
3.2 KASENYI FISH LANDING SITE (KFLS)
3.2.1 Location
KFLS is located at latitude 0
0
06N and longitude 32
0
46E.It is found in the east of
Abaita-Ababiri, the nearest trading center. The landing site is situated in Katabi sub county,
Busiro county of Wakiso District and it is just 5.5km off Kampala-Entebbe main road from
Abaita-Ababiri, Kasenyi stage.

3.2.2 Historical background
The name Kasenyi was derived from the fine sand that lies along the 400m shoreline of Lake
Victoria. Earlier on, one Kasiga who was also a clan leader of Mamba owned the site and he was
the only one to use the landing site. For that reason, other people had to use Nakasinda and
Palestine for water and any other activities. Later people stormed the place, over powered
Kasiga and slowly started fishing and fetching water from Kasenyi.
By 1983, many activities were in place and there was total transformation of the site development
wise and the daily market attracted many people from both mainland and islands. The
government sent in its staff to monitor their activities. For that matter, Kasenyi was a good
hideout for the fishermen as it was a bit far from government agents. Therefore fishermen could
take advantage of the situation especially tax defaulters and lawbreakers.
3.2.3Fishing methods
The methods of fishing commonly used at Kasenyi and the neighboring areas incorporate
gillnetting, angling (hand-line), long line, beach seining, trawling, cast netting, traps, trolling and
light fishing. There is use of planked canoes in the primary harvest. Use of motorboats is
becoming a common phenomenon.
3.2.4 Fish factory activities at Kasenyi
A considerable number companies carryout fish marketing at Kasenyi Factory Area. These
embrace (U) Fish packers Kampala, Ngege Limited, (U) Marine Products, Tropical Fish
industries, Marine and Agro products, Fresh Water Fish Company, Hwan Sung Limited, Gomba
Fish industries, Tampa fisheries, Oakwood, Pearl Fish products and Intercontinental F& F.
8
3.2.5 Preservation of fish
Methods used for the preservation of fish at Kasenyi Fish Landing site (KFLS) include icing, sun
drying, smoking, frying and salting.
3.2.6 Transportation of fish
Fish is transported by means of insulted boats, open boats, insulted trucks, lorries, motorcycles,
bicycles, taxis, and pickups among others.
3.2.7 Business at Kasenyi
Economic activities at Kasenyi include fishing, fish trade, boat building, engine repairing, sale of
foodstuffs and merchandise, transportation and tourism.
3.3 LAKE VICTORIA FISHERIES ORGANISATION (LVFO)
3.3.1 Establishment of LVFO:
The fisheries partnership in the East African region principally between Tanzania, Uganda and
Kenya is possibly one of the oldest in Africa.
Around 1928, it was recommended that a collaborative lake wide authority for regulation and
collection of fisheries statistics be established hence the formation of the East African Freshwater
Fisheries Research Organization (EAFFRO) in 1947.
A consolidated alliance was established and intensified with the formation of East African
Community (EAC). The disintegration of the EAC in 1977 brought the regional coordinating
mechanism to a crumble but due to the need felt by the riparian countries to continue
collaborating in the development and management of Lake Victoria fisheries, a sub-committee of
the FAO a Committee for Inland Fisheries of Africa (CIFA) was established in 1980. The
committee provided a forum for regional cooperation in the development and management of the
fisheries of the lake.
Several seminars were held in the region between 1991 and 1995 under the auspices of the FAO-
CIFA sub-committee to discuss management issues, options and strategies for each of three
countries sharing the lake. These seminars led to the regional meeting for the management of the
lake and the creation of Lake Victoria Fisheries Commission (LVFC) and further consultations
between the riparian authorities with a FAO mission led to the drafting of the convention
establishing LVFC.
A legal and technical consultation meeting later approved the draft for the establishment of Lake
Victoria Fisheries Organization (LVFO) in Dar-el-salaam, Tanzania in March 1994. The signing
and adoption of the convention establishing the LVFO took place at a conference of
plenipotentiaries on June 30
th,
1994 in Kisumu, Kenya and the contracting parties included the
governments of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.
A secretariat headquarter was established in Jinja, Uganda and started operations in July 1997 and
on signing the EAC treaty in November 1999, the LVFO was officially made a specialized
institution of the community.
3.3.2 Objectives of LVFO
The objectives of the organization include the following:
9
To foster cooperation amongst the contracting parties in matters regarding Lake
Victoria.
To harmonize national measures for the sustainable utilization of the living
resource of the lake.
To develop and adopt conservation and management measures to assure the
lakes ecosystem health and sustainability of the living resources.
3.3.3 Functions and responsibilities of LVFO
The organization has a number of functions and responsilibilities that include the following:
It enhances capacity building of existing institutions and develops additional
institutions dedicated to the purpose of cooperation with existing institutions established
by the contracting parties.
It provides a forum for discussion of the impact of initiatives dealing with
environmental and water quality in the lake basin and maintains a liaison with existing
bodies and programmes.
It provides for the research concerning waters of the lake including the quality of
such waters with respect to supporting the living resources of the lake and the nature,
extent and pathways of its pollution and other environmental degradations.
It undertakes training and extension activities in all aspects of fisheries, considers
and advises on the effects of the direct or indirect introduction of non-indigenous aquatic
animals or plants into the lake or its tributaries and adopts measures regarding their
introduction, monitoring, control or elimination from the lake.
It serves as a clearing-house and data bank for information on fisheries in the
lake and promotes dissemination of the information.
The organization adopts budgets, seeks funding, formulates plans for financial
management and allocates funds to its activities or to such activities of the contracting
parties as it may determine for the promotion of the organization convention.
3.3.4 Organs of LVFO
LVFO has got various organs under which its activities and management are done. The council
of ministers is the supreme organ and consists of ministers responsible for fisheries in Uganda,
Kenya and Tanzania. The council of ministers meets once every two years.
Under the council of ministers is the policy steering committee comprising of permanent
secretaries in the ministries responsible for fisheries development and management in the
contracting states. The committee adopts recommendations on policy, which it forwards to the
council of ministers.
There is the executive committee composed of heads of the departments responsible for the
fisheries and heads of fisheries research institutes in each of the contracting states. It reviews the
activities of LVFO and forwards recommendations to the policy steering committee.
Each state has a national committee that falls under the permanent secretary who coordinates and
reports its activities directly to the council of ministers. Its members are drawn from various
government ministries, agencies, Non Governmental Organizations (NGOs), community based
organizations and other institutions with a stake in Lake Victoria.
Other organs of LVFO include fisheries management committee and scientific committee.
Working groups and ad-hoc committees are setup whenever need arises.
10
3.3.5 Funding and vision of LVFO
The LVFO is primarily funded by the three contracting states but it has also benefited from a
grant by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) and the World Bank through the Lake Victoria
Environmental Management Project (LVEMP) and the EU through the Lake Victoria Fisheries
Research Project (LVFRP).
LVFO has a strategic vision covering the period 1999-2015 and endears an ecosystem approach
encompassing five specific areas that include:
A healthy lake ecosystem.
Integrated fisheries management.
Coordinated research programmes.
Information generations, its flow and exchange.
Institutional partnership.
The overall goal of the LVFO is fostering a common systems resource management approach
amongst the contracting states in matters regarding Lake Victoria, with a goal of restoring and
maintaining the health of its ecosystem and assuring sustainable development for the benefit of
the present and future generations.
11
METHODOLOGY
4.1 INTRODUCTION
Chapter IV provides elaborations of certain aspects in total regard to the conduction of the study.
It highlights such aspects as research design, data collection, and nature of data collected, area
and population under study, data entry and processing, data analysis, data presentation and
limitations and delimitations of the study.
4.2 DESIGN OF STUDY
The research is in essence meant to provide a remarkable insight into the fishing activities carried
out at KFLS and in particular the trend in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and thereafter
marketed through KFA on the northern shoreline of Lake Victoria for 2000-2004. KFLS, a
prominent fish-landing site on the shoreline, was considered suitable for the research since it is
such an apt representative of the other sites that exist on the lakes shoreline.
4.3 AREA UNDER STUDY
The research was basically carried out at KFLS on the northern part of Lake Victorias shoreline.
The landing site is situated in Nkumba Parish, Katabi Sub county-Wakiso District.
4.4 POPULATION UNDER STUDY
The research principally covered the amount of fish (in tons) landed and marketed through KFLS
for the period 2000 to 2004. Only the Nile perch and tilapia species, the outstanding fish species
at the site, were considered for statistical analysis to simplify the data analysis process.
4.5 DATA COLLECTION
A few data was amassed by means of direct observation method and on spot interviews with
relevant stakeholders. The qualitative data gathered was used to explain certain phenomena
relevant to the research such as the causes of variations in the catches of fish at Kasenyi for the
period 2000 to 2004.
Fish marketing statistics were obtained from the chief fish inspectors office at KFA. The
unprocessed data obtained from the inspectors office was extracted from monthly and annual
reports that had been prepared by the inspector.
The researcher made additional consultations with other stakeholders in such places as the
Uganda Fisheries Department (UFD) headquarters at Entebbe, the FIRRI headquarters in Jinja,
Department of Zoology under Faculty of Science-Makerere University and Makerere University
Institute of Environment and Natural Resources (MUIENR).
A few additional data was extracted from departmental reports by such organizations as NARO,
FAO, UIA and LVFO.
NATURE OF DATA COLLECTED
Secondary data forms a sizeable part of the research. However, simple primary data was collected
to explain specific phenomena that were of interest and relevant to the research. Quantitative data
particularly the amount of fish provided a firm foundation for the research. This data comprised
of the amount of fish by species composition and the contribution of fresh and cured fish to the
fish market from KFLS for the five years
12
4.7 DATA ENTRY AND PROCESSING
While at the site, the unprocessed data was straightaway entered into tables that had
previously been prepared on a monthly basis for the 5-year period. Later on, data was entered into
a computer with the aid of Microsoft Excel Computer package, a statistical package under the
Microsoft Office Tools, for processing.
Part of the analysis was done in Microsoft Excel. However exportation of data from Microsoft
Excel to STATA (8.0 Version) and SPSS would be done. Writing the report was done using
Microsoft Word- a tool under the Microsoft Office program.
4.8 ANALYSIS AND PRESENTATION OF DATA
4.8.1 Introduction
Analyzed data was presented in totals especially annual and quarterly totals and percentages
using cross tabulations, histograms, line charts and pie charts among others.
Each quarter constituted 3 months as shown in Table 4.1.
TABLE 4-1 Composition of each quarter by months.
A number of tasks were carried out with the aim of summarizing the data, which was initially on
a monthly basis as shown in Table 4-2 in Appendix A.
To enlighten on the above, the amount of fish for each quarter is a sum of the corresponding
amounts of fish for the months that are party to such a quarter.
The researcher applied the ordinary statistical analysis techniques to analyze the data such as time
series and forecasting techniques as well as other econometric techniques were used especially at
the hypothesis testing stage.
4.8.2 Distribution
Using STATA statistical package for professionals, the data collected on its quarterly basis, was
found to be approximately normally distributed as illustrated in Figure 4-1.
Quarter Month Abbr.
I January Jan.
February Feb.
March Mar.
II April Apr.
May May
June June
III July July
August Aug.
September Sept.
IV October Oct.
November Nov.
December Dec.
13
FIGURE 4-1 An illustration of the normal distribution:
0
2
4
6
8
F
r
e
q
u
e
n
c
y
2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
volume of fish (in tons)
compiled by the Researcher
4.8.3 Hypothesis Testing (I)
TESTING FOR TREND:
The researcher tested for the presence of a trend in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA for the 5 years using DANIELS TEST. This test is based on the
Spearmans rank correlation coefficient.
Procedure
a) Hypotheses:
Ho: There is no trend in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through
KFA for the years 2000 to 2004.
Ha: There is a trend in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA
for the period 2000 to 2004.
b) Level of significance:
%) 5 ( 05 . 0
c) Test Statistic:
) 1 (
6
1
2
2

n n
d
r
t
s
Where n is the number of observations
) (
t t
RankY t d
.
t
RankY
is the rank of an observation at time . t
d) Rejection Rule:
Reject H0 if 2 /
r r
s
>

e) Computation of the value of the test statistic,
s
r
f) Making a decision based on the value of the test statistic,
s
r
and the pre-defined rejection
rule.
g) Conclusion:
If H0 is rejected, conclude with
% 100 ) 1 (
confidence that the series has a trend.
If
s
r
is negative, conclude that the trend is downward and if it is positive, it is upward.
If H0 is not rejected, conclude that there is no trend in series.
14

4.8.4 Estimation of the trend:
The researcher estimated a linear trend for the amount of fish (in tons) landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA for the period 2000 to 2004. The model of the trend is of the form:

t t
t b b Y + + 2 1
(A)
Where
t
Y
is the volume of fish landed and marketed at time t .
1 b is the intercept of the fitted line.
2 b is the quarterly decrement in the volume of fish.
t

is the random disturbance term.

The constant coefficients of model (A) were determined using the Least Squares Estimation
(LSE) method that requires the minimization of the sum of squared deviations of observed values
from their arithmetic mean. Thus we minimize the sum given by
2
1

,
_

n
t
t
Y Y
Where

Y
is the mean of
.
t
Y
We derive two normal equations (B) and (C) on minimizing the sum that are used to obtain
constant coefficients.
( )

+ t b nb Y
t
2 1
..(B)
( ) ( )

+
2
2 1 t b t b tY
t
.(C)
On solving equations (B) and (C) simultaneously yields
( )
n
t b Y
b
t

2
1
( ) ( )( )
( ) ( )
2
2
2

t t n
Y t tY n
b
t t
Where n is the number of observations
4.8.5 Seasonality
A time series
t
Y
observed over L times per year at n t ,... 3 , 2 , 1 is said to have
seasonality if the average value of
t
Y
changes over time.
Assuming a multiplicative model of the form:
I C S T Y
t

(D)
Where
t
Y
is the volume of fish landed and marketed at time t .
T is a trend component in the time series.
S is a seasonal component in the time series.
C is a cyclic component in the time series.
I is an irregular component in the time series.
The multiplicative model treats a time series
t
Y
as a product of the components.
Under the multiplicative model, it is assumed that
L S
15
Where L is the length of seasonality.
It is further assumed that under Moving Average Method (MAM), C T CMA
Where CMA is the Centered Moving Average.
Therefore the specific seasonals are defined as
CMA Y I S
t
/
4.8.6 Hypothesis testing (II)
TESTING FOR SEASONALITY
The researcher tested for the presence of a seasonal component in the volume of fish landed
at KFLS and marketed through KFA for 2000 to 2004 using KRUSKAL-WALLIS RANK
TEST.
Procedure:
i) Hypotheses
Ho: There is no seasonality in the volume of fish landed and marketed
through KFA for the period 2000 to 2004.
Ha: There is seasonality in the volume of fish landed and marketed
through KFA for the period 2000 to 2004.
ii) Level of significance:
%) 5 ( 05 . 0
iii) Test statistic:
) 1 ( 3
) 1 (
12
2
+
1
]
1

N
N
R
N N
H
i
i

Where
i
R
is the sum of ranks of the specific seasonals
CMA Y
t
/
in the
th
i season.
i
N
is the number of specific seasonals in the
th
i season.
N is the total number of specific seasonals.
Where L is length of seasonality.
iv) Rejection Rule:
Reject
0
H
if
2
) 1 (
>
L
H

v) Computation of the test statistic value . H

vi) Decision and conclusion:
If
0
H
is rejected, we conclude with
% 100 ) 1 (
confidence that the series has
seasonality.
If
0
H
is not rejected, then we have some support for the model (D) with no seasonal
component.
4.8.7 Computation and adjustment of seasonal factors for 2000 to 2004:
The researcher computed the seasonal factors of the series using the MAM. Theoretically, the
sum of the seasonal factors must be equal to L for a multiplicative model. However the sum of
the seasonal factors may in some instances not add up to L and in such cases adjustments have
to be made.
16
Unadjusted seasonal factors have to be adjusted by multiplying each of them with L divided by
the sum of the unadjusted seasonal factors.
That is,
UASF
SUASF
L
ASF
Where ASF Adjusted Seasonal Factor.
UASF

Unadjusted seasonal Factor

SUASF Sum of Unadjusted Seasonal Factors.
4.8.8 Delimitations and limitations of the research
4.8.8.1 Delimitations:
The delimitations of the research that are of great significance were:
i) The researcher ignored all the other fish species and only dealt with the two main fish species,
lates niloticus and tilapia species for analysis.
ii) The research only encompassed the volume of fish that was landed at KFLS and marketed
through KFA.
4.8.8.2 Limitations:
The limitations of the research include the following:
i) There was considerable hesitation in availing data to the researcher by some fisheries officials.
ii) The time available for this research was quite inadequate especially at the analysis stage.
iii) The researcher encountered some financial constraints. The conduction of this research was
relatively expensive as regards travel, stationary and other resources.
17
ANALYSIS OF DATA
5.1 INTRODUCTION
Chapter V deals with analysis of data using statistical analysis tools, some of whose explanations
are available in chapter IV. Hence this chapter involves testing of hypotheses, estimation of the
trend and analysis of the seasonal component in the series under study. Further analysis hinges on
the volume of fresh and cured fish as well as the Nile perch (lates niloticus) and the tilapia
species.
HYPOTHESIS TESTING (I)
FIGURE 5-1 A Scatter diagram showing the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed at KFA against
t
for the 5-year period.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0 5 10 15 20 25 t
v
o
l
u
m
e

o
f

f
i
s
h
Figure 5-1 is based on observations in Table 5-1 in Appendix B. There is a negative relationship
between the volume of fish and t .
TESTING FOR TREND
Testing for the existence of a trend component in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA was done using DANIELS TEST at 5% level of significance as indicated
henceforth.
USING STATA:
Spearman volume of fish (Yt) t Number of obs = 20
Spearman's rho = -0.5398 Test of Ho: Spearman
volume of fish (Yt) and t are independent Prob > |t| = 0.0140
Where Spearmans rho is the Spearmans rank correlation coefficient.
t
Y
is the amount of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA in the
th
t quarter for
. 20 ,..., 3 , 2 , 1 t
18
According to the STATA results, Spearmans rank correlation coefficient
s
r
= -0.5398
and
5398 . 0
s
r
.
The critical value as read from Spearmans correlation coefficient table is
450 . 0
025 . 0 2 /
r r

.
DECISION
Since
5398 . 0
s
r
is greater than
450 . 0
2 /

r
we reject the null hypothesis
0
H
.
CONCLUSION
We conclude with 95percent confidence that the series
t
Y
has a trend.
Since the Spearmans rank correlation coefficient is negative, we further conclude that the series
trend is downward.
5.3 ESTIMATION OF THE TREND
The researcher fitted a simple linear trend to the quarterly figures using model (A).
USING STATA
TABLE 5-2 Table of results
Where VOF represents the volume of fish in tons.
According the results in above, the intercept of the trend line is 1 b =3756.079 and its
slope is 2 b -61.24401.
Consequently, the trend equation is
t T 24401 . 61 079 . 3756 (E)
Base period: 1999 Quarter IV
t is quarterly and
t
Y
is in tons.
TABLE 5-3 Time
identification numbers
t
with their respective
trend values, T .
VOF Coef. Std. Error. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval]
t -61.24401 20.77184 -2.95 0.009 -104.884 -17.60399
Cons 3756.079 248.829 15.10 0.000 3233.309 4278.849
T
t
T
1 3694.8 11 3082.4
2 3633.6 12 3021.2
3 3572.3 13 2959.9
4 3511.1 14 2898.7
5 3449.9 15 2837.4
6 3388.6 16 2776.2
7 3327.4
17 2714.9
8 3266.1
18 2653.7
9 3204.9 19 2592.4
10 3143.6 20 2531.2
19
FIGURE 5-2 A Line graph of
t
Y
and the trend values
T
against the time number
t

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
time number t
V
o
l
u
m
e

o
f

f
i
s
h

(
i
n

t
o
n
s
)
Volume of fish Linear (Volume of fish )
5.4 FORECASTING THE TREND FOR 2005 AND 2006
Using the trend equation (E), we obtain the trend values by varying the time identification
number t in the trend equation. Thus the trend values for 2005 and 2006 are as shown in
Table 5-4.
TABLE 5-4 Forecast values for 2005 and 2006.
20
5.5 SEASONAL COMPONENT
The figure below shows a relatively repeated pattern year in year out and therefore there is cause
to suspect the presence of the seasonal component.
FIGURE 5-3 A Bar graph showing the volume of fish against the respective quarter for
the period 2000-2004.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
YEAR
V
o
l
u
m
e

o
f

f
i
s
h
(
i
n

t
o
n
s
)
Quarter I Quarter II Quarter III Quarter IV
5.5.1 Hypothesis testing (II)
TESTING FOR SEASONALITY
TABLE 5-5 Computational Table A
Year t T Year t
T
2005 21 2470 2006 25 2225
22 2408.7 26 2163.7
23 2347.5 27 2102.5
24 2286.2 28 2041.2
21
Year Quater t
t
Y
QMA 4
CMA CMA Y
t
/ Rank
2000 I 1 4283.96
1
II 2 3438.82
3
3731.27
9
III 3 2851.40
6
3562.14
8
3646.71
3
0.781911 2
IV 4 4350.92
5
3541.35
5
3551.75
1
1.225008 15
2001 I 5 3607.43
7
3500.77
3
3521.06
4
1.02453 11
II 6 3355.65
2
3399.46 3450.11
6
0.97262 6
III 7 2689.07
7
3309.41
3
3354.43
6
0.801648 3
IV 8 3945.67
3
3170.56
2
3239.98
8
1.217805 14
2002 I 9 3247.25 3143.27
8
3156.92 1.028613 12
II 10 2800.24
8
2984.36 3063.81
9
0.913973 5
III 11 2579.94
2
2863.97
1
2924.16
5
0.882283 4
IV 12 3309.99
8
2808.34
5
2836.15
8
1.167071 13
2003 I 13 2765.69
6
2644.61
1
2726.47
8
1.014384 10
II 14 2577.74
4
2506.24
1
2575.42
6
1.0009 8
III 15 1925.00
4
2694.88
7
2600.56
4
0.740226 1
IV 16 2756.51
8
2767.70
6
2731.29
7
1.009234 9
2004 I 17 3520.28
3
2842.19
4
2804.95 1.255025 16
II 18 2869.01
8
2943.74
7
2892.97 0.991721 7
III 19 2222.95
6
IV 20 3162.72
9
TABLE 5-6 Ranks in their respective quarters as obtained from Table 5-5.
Year I II III IV
2000 2 15
2001 11 6 3 14
2002 12 5 4 13
2003 10 8 1 9
2004 16 7
i
R
49 26 10 51
2
i
R
2401 676 100 2601
22
Thus
) 1 16 ( 3
4
2601
4
100
4
676
4
2401
) 1 16 ( 16
12
+
1
]
1

+ + +
+
H
H 12.728 and
348 . 9
2
) 3 ( , 2 / 05 . 0

DECISION
Since
) 728 . 12 ( H
is greater than
) 348 . 9 (
2
) 1 (

L

, we reject the null hypothesis

0
H
at
%) 5 ( 05 . 0
level of significance.
CONCLUSION
We therefore conclude with 95percent confidence that the series has a seasonal component.
5.5.2 Computation of the seasonal factors
TABLE 5-7 Quarters with their respective specific seasonals for 2000 to 2004.
Year I II III IV TOTAL
2000 0.781911 1.225008
2001 1.02453 0.97262 0.801648 1.217805
2002 1.028613 0.913973 0.882283 1.167071
2003 1.014384 1.0009 0.740226 1.009234
2004 1.255025 0.991721
UASF 1.080638 0.969803 0.801517 1.15478 4.006738
WhereUASF is the average of the specific seasonals in each of the corresponding
quarters.
5.5. 3 Adjustment of the seasonal factors

TABLE 5-8 Quarters with their respective Adjusted Seasonal Factors.
Quarter I II III IV Total
ASF 1.0788 0.9682 0.8002 1.1528 4.000
23
5.5.4 Forecasting for
t
Y
using the adjusted seasonal factors for 2005 and 2006
Remember that
CMA Y I S
t
/
where T CMA .
Thus
T ASF Y
t

.
TABLE 5-9 Forecasts for
t
Y
(2005 and 2006)
Year t
T ASF
t
Y
2005
21 2470 1.0788 2664.6
22 2408.7 0.9682 2332.1
23 2347.5 0.8002 1878.5
24 2286.2 1.1528 2635.5
2006
25 2225 1.0788 2400.3
26 2163.7 0.9682 2094.9
27 2102.5 0.8002 1682.4
28 2041.2 1.1528 2353.1
5.6 TILAPIA VERSUS NILE PERCH
TABLE 5-10 Amount of Nile perch and Tilapia Species landed at KFLS and marketed
through KFA for 2000-2004.
Year Nile perch Tilapia TOTAL
2000 14319.4 608.612 14928
2001 12902.6 695.358 13598
2002 11067.3 867.107 11934.4
2003 9026.04 998.92 10025
2004 10841.2 933.797 11775
TOTAL 58156.5 4103.79 62260.3
24
FIGURE 5-4 Amount of tilapia species and lates niloticus over the period
2000-2004.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
V
o
l
u
m
e

o
f

f
i
s
h

i
n

t
o
n
s
Nile perch Tilapia
5.7 ANNUAL SHARES
TABLE 5-11 Total amount of fish (in tons) landed at KFLS and marketed through
KFA for period 2000 to 2004.
Year Amount
2000 14925.12
2001 13597.84
2002 11937.44
2003 10024.96
2004 11774.99
25
FIGURE 5-5A pie chart showing share by year based on the overall marketing statistics for
the five-year period:
2004
18.91% 2000
24.00%
2001
21.84%
2002
19.17%
2003
16.10%
2000 has the largest share (24%) followed by year 2001 with 21.84%. However, it can be noted
that there is no significant difference in the annual percentages. There was a slight increase in the
amount of fish in 2004 to 18.91% from16.10% in 2003.
26
DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
6.1 INTRODUCTION
Chapter IV contains a discussion of the findings from the research, conclusions of the report and
recommendations from the researcher to stakeholders more especially the Uganda Government.
The findings discussed in here are a combination of those obtained at the statistical analysis stage
and those that the researcher obtained during data collection while at KFLS and the other areas
visited.
6.2 DISCUSSIONS OF THE FINDINGS
6.2.1 Statistical findings
6.2.1.1 Trend
According to the estimation stage results, it can be said that the trend is downward with a steady
decline of 61.24401 tons of fish in the marketing statistics per quarter from 2000 to 2004. This
figure is a measure of a change in the volume of fish landed and marketed as a result of a unit
change in time . t
The decline in the amount of fish is as a result of the shorter rain spells against the longer dry
periods that were encountered during the period 2000 to 2004. For that reason the low fish
marketing quantities were, more probably, due to reduced water levels, which expose the
breeding grounds for fish.
6.2.1.2 Seasonality
Results from hypothesis testing (II) suggest the presence of seasonality in the volume of fish
landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA for the five-year period.
According to Table 5-8, the first quarterly seasonal factor of 1.0788 means that on average, the
volume of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA for the period 2000-2004 in Quarter I
is 107.88% of the trend value.
The second seasonal factor of 0.9682 means that on average, the volume of fish landed at KFLS
and marketed through KFA in Quarter II is 96.82% of the trend value.
The third seasonal factor of 0.8002 means that on average, the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA in Quarter III is 80.02% of the trend value.

The last seasonal factor of 1.1528 means that on average, the volume of fish landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA in Quarter IV is 115.28% of the trend value.
According to Table 5-8, the highest yields of fish are experienced in Quarter IV partly because of
the substantial rains that are received during that particular time year in year out.
Generally, there are dry conditions during Quarter III and that accounts for the low fish marketing
figures besides other factors.
6.2.1.3 Tilapia versus Nile perch
According to Figure 5-4, it can be observed that Nile perch (lates niloticus) enjoys a bigger share
of the fish market as compared to the tilapia species. However, it can also be observed that
27
throughout the five-year period, the volume of the tilapia species diminishes as the volume of the
Nile perch landed and marketed in a certain quarter increases and vice-versa. It implies that the
Nile perch is actually a predator of the tilapia species and many other fish species and thus there
exists a predator-prey relationship among the fish species in Lake Victoria.
In the relationship, the population of the Nile perch in a certain period multiplies since it feeds on
the tilapia species and as a matter of fact, the population of the later dwindles in the same period.
However in the next period the now large population of the Nile perch also falls because the now
small population of the tilapia species can no longer sustain it. Reduction in the Nile perch
population results in an increase in the tilapia species population and the cycle continues.
6.2.1.4 Fresh fish versus cured fish
According to Table 4-2 in Appendix A, it is clear that fresh fish contributes a larger portion to the
fish market than cured fish. Some of the fish from KFLS is exported to EU countries and other
places. This implies that the methods used for fish preservation are a significant factor as far as
fish marketing is concerned. In most cases, fish exported to the EU is fresh but just frozen.
6.2.2 Other findings
6.2.2.1 Types of fish at Kasenyi
It should be noted that Kasenyi is a busy commercial site endowed with various fish types that
include the following as shown in Table 6.1.
TABLE 6-1 Different types of fish at Kasenyi.
COMMON NAME LOCAL NAME
Nile perch Mputa
Tilapia species Ngege
Bagrus Semutundu
Clarias Male
Synondontis Nkolongo
Haplochromines Enkejje
argentae rastrineobola Mukene
Mormymus Kasulu
protopterus Mamba
Barbas Kisinja
Among the types of fish, the Nile perch contributes over 85% to the fish market followed by
tilapia species.
6.2.2.2 Economic growth of Kasenyi
There are a number of underlying factors that have paved way for the economic growth of
Kasenyi and these include:
a) A good fishing ground.
b) Presence of all weather roads.
c) Availability of market for fish from Kasenyi.
28
d) Easily accessible shoreline.
e) Availability of stores for fish and other commodities.
f) Presence of government workers such as police, health and fisheries.
g) Presence of boat building and engine repair workshops.
h) Close proximity of Kasenyi to Kampala city for better services.
6.2.2.3 Economic importance of Kasenyi
Kasenyi is incredibly important in the economic development of Uganda through the following
ways:
I. Kasenyi promotes tourism especially at the leisure beach and the aviary
(bird sanctuary).
II. It has improved the standards of living of many people within its vicinity
and from afar.
III. It contributes to the sustainability of Ugandas economy more especially
through the earning of foreign exchange from fish trade.
IV. It has creates ready market for fish and other general merchandise.
V. Kasenyi is convenient for research purposes for schools, universities and
other institutions that undertake research errands.
VI. It provides stores for fish, fishing equipment and other general
merchandise.
6.2.2.4 Problems or challenges at Kasenyi
A number of problems or challenges are encountered at Kasenyi and these include the under-
mentioned:
a. Presence of strong winds, water waves or currents and high temperatures.
b. Dropping of the water level in Lake Victoria especially for the last five years.
c. Use of illegal fishing gears and methods.
d. Shorter rain spells
e. Over-exploitation of the Nile perch and tilapia fisheries in Lake Victoria. This
problem is as a result of unrestricted access to fisheries.
f. Smuggling of fish.
6.3 CONCLUSIONS
The evidence presented in this report suggests that the decline in the volume of fish landed at
KFLS and thereafter marketed through KFA was high and should not be under-rated. In the five-
year period, about 62 tons of fish per quarter would be lost as time went by. Owing to the
problems at KFLS, Ugandas economy is at a risk of instability if they are not addressed.
The high Nile perch numbers for the period 2000 to 2004 reflect, to some extent, shows the
predatory nature of the Nile perch as directed towards other fish species.
It is partly as a result of the predatory nature that some fish species no longer feature in the daily
catches of fish.
The high figures of the Nile perch are not wholly as a result of the predator-prey relationship.
Findings presented in this report, as well as the evidence provided by the literature, indicate that
29
the exportation of the Nile perch to the World market is more economically viable than
exportation of any other species from KFLS.
The soaring reductions in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA for the
period 2000 to 2004 are an implication that there is to be an undesirable response with time,
which will ultimately threaten the economic potential of the entire lake if no major interventions
are taken to rectify the situation.
6.4 RECOMMENDATIONS
Noting with great concern the urgency to speed up and finalize with the elimination process of
these reductions in the volume of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA, the researcher
henceforth forwards the following recommendations to all stakeholders:
Surveillances and patrols should be carried out by fisheries authorities, which could be
backed up by other competent government agencies. This ensures the utilization of
knowledgeable personnel in handling fisheries related matters.
Those arrested for conducting illegal activities such as smuggling of fish and harvesting
of premature fish should be charged in courts of law and information of the culprits
disseminated to relevant stakeholders.
Smuggling of fish should be condemned in the strongest terms possible by fish
processors.
Communities should be sensitized on the Monitoring Control and Surveillance (MCS)
system with all its advantages.
Container collector boats that smuggle fish across borders should be banned from the
lake.
Seizure forms should be issued for confiscated items and official receipts issued for any
fines.
The government should promote further research into the fisheries sub-sector among
institutions of higher learning and other research organizations.
A co-management approach for Lake Victoria should be pursued further for future
planning, development and management of the lakes fisheries.

30
BIBILIOGRAPHY
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rd
Edition. McGraw-Hill, New
York.
A. Rashid (2002). The Socio-economic impact of the Nile perch Fishery on Lake Victoria in Uganda.
Case study: Katosi, Kasenyi, Masese and Lambu Fish landing sites. Dissertation, Department of Zoology,
MUK.
Bamwirire David (2003). Trend in the Lake Victoria Fisheries: A Review of the fish catches at Masese,
Kasenyi and Katosi fish landing sites: Causes and Impacts.
Dissertation, Department of Zoology, MUK.
Coulter, G.W.; Allanson, B.R.; Bruton, M.N.; Greenwood, P.H.; Hart, R.C.; Jackson, P.B.N AND
Ribbink, A.J. (1986). Unique qualities and special problems of African Great lakes. pp. 161-184
Jan Kmenta (1986). Elements of Econometrics. 2
nd
Edition. Macmillan Publishing Company, New York.
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th
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nd
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Hong Kong.
MFPED (2003). Background to the Budget, Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic
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NARO (2002). Annual Research Report. National Agricultural Research Organization, Entebbe.
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th
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Kyoga and Lake Victoria.
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Otim Jacob (2002). The causes of fishing post-Harvest losses at Namasale Landing Site on Lake Kyoga.
Dissertation, Department of Zoology, MUK.
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rd
Edition, Macmillan Publishing Company, New
York. Pp. 482, 498.
Wayne A. fuller (1976). Introduction to statistical Time series. New York: Wiley.
32
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A
TABLE 4-2 Amount of fish landed at KFLS and marketed through KFA
for 2000-2004 (Fresh and Cured fish)
FRESH
FISH
Months lates
niloticus
Tilapia
species
CURED
FISH
lates
niloticus
Tilapia species
2000
Jan. 1369146 38596










378105 38013
Feb. 1131257 29394 257963 29627
Mar. 697559 45907 247302 21092
Apr. 901672 33865 185848 18748
May 904386 20057 209455 22663
June 904098 16245 211015 10771
July 573497 20930 212571 12060
Aug. 648991 14475 208024 30540
Sept. 861189 27240 231033 13704
Oct. 1097941 33884 293770 17140
Nov. 1123251 17517 307331 52152
2001
Dec. 1154920 12475












209027 31517
Jan. 1080156 16398 199027 32517
Feb. 1006095 25416 149068 26846
Mar. 924635 20250 110835 16346
Apr. 986035 21413 204965 26400
May 889614 18811 181305 19262
June 776460 35555 170060 25772
July 685510 34771 72771 14700
Aug. 624743 23607 106764 24050
Sept. 897259 30950 134508 39444
Oct. 1171021 31118 141130 47905
Nov. 1148304 39538 156900 47580
Dec. 959848 30149 125620 46560
2002
Jan. 960807 31670











108905 57148
Feb. 807596 20879 94565 44799
Mar. 974892 39240 56019 46730
Apr. 981577 36928 50205 46090
May 828427 31388 36910 31535
June 677281 29752 24520 26635
July 689434 26308 40205 36090
Aug. 786890 51772 41910 35535
Sept. 763187 51972 35004 21635
Oct. 969591 48426 18746 29410
Nov. 1111986 45930 25159 21715
Dec. 968907 44579 14608 10941
33
TABLE 4-2 (Continued)
34

FRESH
FISH
Month Lates
niloticus
Tilapia
species
CURED
FISH
Lates
niloticus
Tilapia
species
2003
Jan 871888 42252











7605 11640
Feb. 835882 34126 7438 10328
Mar. 883219 41204 8014 12100
Apr. 747133 53457 7606 9650
May 851221 76973 8925 11241
June 708668 78993 10592 13285
July 515874 75757 8736 10463
Aug. 495288 81197 6880 8543
Sept. 625286 80012 7218 9750
Oct. 671728 87656 13103 16127
Nov. 920552 92578 17855 21340
Dec. 773344 96034 21987 24214
2004
Jan 1031547 76237 17818 19913
Feb. 1086345 89572 21374 27386
Mar. 1062150 60445 17586 9910
Apr. 1083559 83107 21868 8527
May 863632 65627 20833 9202
June 636060 50108 18425 8070
July 535355 46951 12369 5592
Aug. 673400 44927 10105 4669
Sept. 830483 41722 12119 5264
Oct. 1082723 56194 16238 7911
Nov. 885342 93080 24227 17941
Dec. 855610 83315 22021 18127
35
Source: KFA Database, Katabi sub county, Wakiso District.
Note that all the amounts of fish are in kilograms.
APPENDIX B
Part 1
TABLE 5-1 Volume of fish in tons (lates niloticus and the tilapia) landed at KFLS and
marketed through KFA.

Quarter

Year
Based on Table 4-2
I II III IV
2000 4283.961 3438.823 2851.406 4350.925
2001 3607.437 3355.652 2689.077 3945.673
2002 3247.25 2800.248 2579.942 3309.998
2003 2765.696 2577.744 1925.004 2756.518
2004 3520.283 2869.018 2222.956 3162.729
36
Part 2
APPENDIX C
The Adjusted Seasonal Factors (ASFs) for the quarters are as follows:
Quarter I: 080638 . 1
006738 . 4
4
ASF 1.07882
Quarter II: 969803 . 0
006738 . 4
4
ASF 0.96817
Quarter III: 801517 . 0
006738 . 4
4
ASF 0.80017
Quarter IV: 15478 . 1
006738 . 4
4
ASF 1.15284
37