Thayer Consultancy

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Background Briefing: Vietnams New Leadership: U.S. Relations and anti-China Protests Carlyle A. Thayer August 25, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Q1. As you may have seen, dissidents have been back in the news. The US has protested though is going ahead with strengthening military ties at a time when Vietnam would like a strong friend in its corner. Does the US have any real negotiatingstrengthatthemomenttointercedeonbehalfofthesepeople,orisit morebluster? ANSWER: The U.S. interventions on human rights are routine. The U.S. only has a strongbargaininghandwhentheVietnamesewantsomething.Thedevelopmentof military ties is moving forward at a slow place. A signed statement of intent on cooperationinmilitarymedicineandtherecentrepairoftheUSNSRichardByrdare forms of defence cooperation and should not be confused with a military relationship. Vietnam has yet to engage with the U.S. military by conducting joint exercises by land, naval or air forces. The last U.S. Ambassador noted pointedly in televisedremarksonthe15thanniversaryofdiplomaticrelationsthatanyadvancein militarytomilitarytiesweredependentonanimprovementinhumanrights. Q2.HowdoyoureadthefinalcrackdownonantiChinaprotesters? ANSWER: The latest crackdown on antiChina protesters may be explained by two factors.ThefirstisVietnamsobligationreachedbyitsspecialenvoyandhisChinese counterpart to steer public opinion. It is particularly important for the regime to dampenprotestsinadvanceofSecretaryGeneralNguyenPhuTrongsforthcoming visit to China. The timing of this visit has not been announced. Earlier in the year afterthepartycongressVietnamsentaspecialenvoytoChinatoinviteitsleadersto visit Vietnam. China in turn extended an invitation for Vietnamese leaders to visit Beijing. A Vietnamese source told me that in deference to China, Vietnam would makethefirstmovebysendingTrongtoBeijing. Second, the intervention of the Viet Tan has provided the pretext for Vietnams ideologicalconservativelawandorderlobbytopresstheclaimthattheantiChina protestswerebeingmanipulatedbyhostileelements. Q3.WhatdoyouthinkVietnam'slongertermstrategyisregardingtheSouthChina Sea and China? How do/will proChina versus proUS versus middle of the road pragmatistsshapethis?

2 ANSWER: Vietnam wants to see China constrained by a combination of military powerbytheU.S.anditsallies,andpoliticaldiplomaticpressurebyASEAN.Vietnam wantstocreateasecurityenvironmentwhereChinawillnotactaggressivelytoscare off foreign oil companies. Vietnam seeks to develop its offshore resources to spur developmentoverthenexttwoormoredecades.InrealitythesettlementofSouth ChinaSeaissuesisnotazerosumgame.Chinamusthaveastakeinregionalsecurity and oil exploration and development. Vietnamese leaders will seek a balance of influence, conceding some joint development projects to China while pushing the envelopeforasmuchforeigninvolvementasChinawilltolerate. What,ifany,effectwilltherelativelyrecentappointments/formalelectionshave? ANSWER: In the past bilateral relations with China were in the hands of Pham Gia Khiem, a member of the Politburo, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs. He represented Vietnam on the ChinaVietnam Joint Steering Committee thatoversawallaspectsofbilateralrelations.TheministerialpositionsKhiemonce held are now held by two individuals. The new foreign minister, who can be expected to promote improved relations with the United States, and pragmatic relations with China, will be trumped by which ever deputy prime minister is appointed to the Joint Steering Committee. Vietnamese sources report that China has made it clear it has reservations about the new foreign minister, Pham Binh Minh,thesonofformerForeignMinisterNguyenCoThachwhosepushtonormalize relations with the U.S. incurred Chinas ire. When China and Vietnam normalized relations in 199091, Thach was pointed excluded from the high level leadership summits despite being a member of the Politburo, deputy prime minister and foreignminister. Vietnamsrecentgovernmenttransitionrepresentsmoreintermsofcontinuitythan change. More protgs and supporters of Prime Minister Dung hold office. The PrimeMinistercandolittletoalterVietnamsmassivetradedebtwithChina.Hewill continuetoencourageChineseinvestmentinVietnaminordertobolstertheroleof stateowned enterprises. Dungs instinct are to quash any antiChina sentiment arisingfrombauxitemining,illegalworkersorSouthChinaSeaissues.